Hamas Tried to Drive a Wedge between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Will It Backfire?

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Күн бұрын

One of the leading theories for Hamas's attack on October 7 was a desire to end normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If Israel were to engage in large-scale countermeasures, public sentiment in the Arab world, including within Saudi Arabia, would make such an agreement infeasible. Despite this appearing to go according to plan so far, it remains possible that the strategy will backfire. What was originally holding up the deal was Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank, which was a key part of what kept the Israeli government's coalition government together. But the attack has put the government on weak footing. As such, the net effect on the long-run normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains nebulous.
0:00 The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend?
1:46 Middle East Political Alignments
6:14 The Israeli-Saudi Normalization Process
10:27 The Hold Up to a Deal
12:33 Hamas's Preventive War
14:00 Hamas's Grand Strategic Plan
14:47 How the Plan Could Backfire
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Пікірлер: 1 700

@Elongated_Muskrat 5 ай бұрын

The real issue is that Saudi Arabia is attempting to prepare for a post-Oil economy and doesn't have the time and resources for permanent cold wars versus Israel, or Iran for that matter. Lowering hostility, maximizing trade relationships, and maximizing investment in non-oil enterprises is Saudi Arabia's main focus now so normalization will still occur between Israel and Saudi Arabia eventually.

@hieronymusbutts7349 5 ай бұрын

Ehhh. It's also putting a lot of resources into expanding automotive infrastructure in Asia and Africa to increase global oil dependence at the same time. The Saudis are presenting a climate friendly face to developed countries while actively working on getting developing economies hooked on Saudi oil.

@rwasppoop305 5 ай бұрын

As a half Kuwaiti, I am sure it'll fail With de-Globalization we will return to the olden days, Egypt is 50% dependent on wheat from ukraine and Russia And most arab countries are even higher I now people don't just die And Europe is slowing fading due to population decline especially in the east I predict mass migration, by force, not just migrants, but wars, it has happened with Romans and vandals, and in many places If you give me the option to die in the desert or starve or organize militias and armies to migrate 2nd option is the only option people will choose Imagine 60 million Egyptians, 20 million Saudis, 15 million Algerians, 10 million Morrocans and millions more in central asia all dependent on globalization, it'll not last There will be no post oil economy

@SaceedAbul 5 ай бұрын

You’re completely ignoring the pissed off populations.

@Jake-rs9nq 5 ай бұрын

A post-oil economy is not in the near future. Oil consumption is still rising, and will for the next decade.

@advancetotabletop5328 5 ай бұрын

And go ask grandpa what it was like during the 1970‘s when OPEC cut off the oil, because the old king didn’t want to sell oil to Israel‘s allies. The result was *conservation*. OPEC learned that they still need to keep their oil prices low enough so that customers don’t have an incentive to research alternative energies or domestic oil. The demand for oil, especially China, *is* constantly increasing, but more countries outside of OPEC, including the USA, are exporting oil. The SA prince is more friendly towards Israel and USA because Palestine is economically worthless, and SA is competing with Iran for ME influence.

@sla8tful 5 ай бұрын

It is sliding into backfiring. Israel has stated its intention to eliminate Hamas as an entity, and Saudi Arabia has only stated concern for the civilians in Gaza. Moreover, with the Houthis chiming in all of a sudden, it becomes clearer that despite denials of any involvement, Iran is heavily involved in everything. The Saudis know this very well.

@ChickenArad1 5 ай бұрын

Why do you care kid?

@sambun6394 5 ай бұрын

@@ChickenArad1that’s like when slave owners told people “why do you care, mind your own business don’t buy slaves if you don’t like it” maybe we should care because lives are lost needlessly over all this.

@Ra29293 5 ай бұрын

@@sambun6394The slave traders were Jews

@avinashtyagi2 5 ай бұрын

Except relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are warming up, meanwhile, 98% of Saudi's currently oppose Israel, even MBS can't deny public opinion to that degree.

@msimon6808 5 ай бұрын

@@avinashtyagi2 It is a religious problem. The economic problem is Strategic.

@tomerbrosilow5402 5 ай бұрын

"Though the accords were named for a prophet, this was largely about profit". Dude you're hilarious😂

@user-sc7fk5ys6x 5 ай бұрын

Isn’t it only the Muslims that classify Abraham as a prophet? To the rest, the word is Patriarch (forefather) since there is no record of him doing any prophesying.

@TheNewGreenIsBlue 5 ай бұрын

@@user-sc7fk5ys6x Well, Genesis 20:7 calls Abraham a prophet. The word prophet in biblical language is more akin to "spokesman of God" which you can definitely say about Abraham. The fact that a covenant was made with Abraham also bears this out. However, it's best not to get too hung up on semantics. Abraham was a faithful man who was called a friend of God.

@guydreamr 4 ай бұрын

The profit of Mammon, that is.

@fishamaphone 5 ай бұрын

11:00 production note: Israel has always established its capital as Jerusalem, and sat its government there. What moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was the US embassy, granting a de-facto recognition of said capital that was previously ambiguous. Good analysis otherwise.

@MrEugeneCrab 5 ай бұрын

True. In addition to the US, few other countries also did the same with their embassies in Israel about the same time

@Gametheory101 5 ай бұрын

Yeah that should have been a lot more precise.

@gerri577 5 ай бұрын

except that Jerusalem is international territory. Israel has no binding over it and half of it is populated with arab muslims. To disregard those facts is foolish. And a good way to lose respect.

@msimon6808 5 ай бұрын

@@Gametheory101 The Role of PTSD in History Hitler was an abused child. Marx was an abused child. Stalin was an abused child. Putin is an abused child. Their displaced rage from the abuse destroyed their morals. The anger is the disease. powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-role-of-ptsd-in-history.html

@lordyoda607 5 ай бұрын

@@gerri577 haha, go to Jerusalem and say again those "facts" of yours.

@anonymous-yf6ur 5 ай бұрын

From what I have heard, the conversation in private among top diplomats from Saudi, UAE, Jordan and other middle eastern countries have been extremely pro Israel. Kind of makes sense since Israel will be a stable bet regarding money compared to Iran, which is very unstable. Even China and Russia aren't really into the Iranian markets contrary to what they want us to believe.

@MustardSkaven 5 ай бұрын

The common folk that can't get over their hatred are the only reason the leadership in these Arab nations have to pretend to be cautious and not friendly to Israel.

@avinashtyagi2 5 ай бұрын

If they are so pro-Israel, then why are they refusing to oppose the Houthis in the Red Sea? And why are they warming up relations with Iran? In addition, even MBS can't completely ignore public opinion, and currently 98% of Saudis oppose Israel, ignoring that much public sentiment is how dictatorial regimes get overthrown. Doesn't pass the smell test.

@mortimersnerd5172 5 ай бұрын

Correct. Israel and Jordan have been secret allies for decades.

@AWAKENHAYATO-ic1cw 4 ай бұрын

Actually as per I know Saudi wants the IMEC project proposed by us to be functional coz it will be a very profitable deal for Saudi and every one knows their always a power struggle between Saudi and Iran coz of that Saudi isn't critizing Israel that much coz Saudi is looking far a long term benefit

@khurshmian6156 4 ай бұрын

Caca

@austinsmith8584 5 ай бұрын

There’s a misunderstanding with religious political parties in Israel. 2 of them are Haredi (black velvet) Kippah and Doti Leumi (knitted) kippah There are currently 4 religious parties in this Netanyahu government however only 2 of them could be considered right wing, and they are not “ultra-orthodox”. The 2 Haredi parties are UTJ(United Torah Judaism) which is Ashkenazi and Shas which is Sephardi both of them have sat in left wing governments in the past. They are primarily concerned with parochial interests such as funding for kolel students, adult men that study Torah as a profession and do not work a regular job. Additionally they want religous exceptions to serve in the IDF. Outside of these two issues they don’t have political platforms. Since the majority of their voters are on welfare or other subsidies they are economically left wing, to the left of Bernie Sanders or AOC. The other 2 parties are Religious Zionism headed by Bezalel Smotrich and Otzimah Yehudit(Jewish Power) headed by Itamar Ben Gavir. Both of these parties are right wing. In order to ensure they both received the mandatory minimum amount of votes they decided to run together as one list/party for the election. There are some differences between the two although they support similar interests. Smotrich is more ideologically/intellectually right wing especially economically, whereas Ben Gavir is more populist/emotionally driven. Since Smotrich and Ben Gavir are the only 2 right wing religious in earnest it’s important to understand that they won 14 seats (12%)combined in the last election and current polls show Smotrich wouldn’t pass the electoral threshold by himself and Ben Gavir would win 6-8 seats (6%). While it is true that Haredi have surging demographics it is not the reason why the Left in Israel can’t win elections. The primary reasons trace back to the early 2000’s. They went all in on the Oslo accords promising that allowing Arafat to form a Palestinian autonomy and then a state will bring peace. Since Arafat turned down the Clinton brokered deal at Camp David, and launched the 2nd intifada without a counteroffer. The other reason is the Netanyahu’s economic liberalization as finance minister around the same time. It’s only been about 20 years and the country has transformed from multiple currency failures, rampant inflation and high unemployment to the start-up nation and higher GDP per capital than the UK. The other thing to realize that most seats in the Knesset are held by other right wing parties like the one headed by Avigdor Lieberman who is much more right wing that both the Haredi parties but refuses to sit in a coalition with Netanyahu and is against Haredi policies going as far as saying they are parasites and wishes to throw them in a garbage dump. There are many reasons to understand voting patterns and policy preferences of Israelis but demographics wouldn’t crack the top 5 explanations. There was a prediction by Rabbi Meir Kahane in the 70’s who called for the Arabs to be transferred (ethnicity cleansed) from Israel. He believed that the Arab birth rate would bring about an Arab majority and viewed them as a demographic threat. Arab birth rates declined as education increased like the rest of the world. So it’s important to remember birth rates and demographics are dynamic and current data is insufficient to predict what the society will look like in the future let alone voting patterns

@ahappyimago 5 ай бұрын

Very informative thank you.

@nuqwestr 5 ай бұрын

Mistake to bring up Kahane, assassinated for his views, although he mimicked the sentiments of the 3rd Arab Palestine Congress in 1921. They, too, were concerned over immigration and birthrates.: "Report on the State of Palestine presented to the Right Honourable Mr. Winston Churchill P.C., M.P. by the Executive Committee of the Third Arab Palestine Congress. Jerusalem, March 28, 1921." - Library of Congress PDF.

@levezze 5 ай бұрын

UTJ and Shas are indeed ultra-orthodox. There are always people who are more extreme (like followers of Kahana), that doesn't make them a non-extremist faction. It's like saying that the Taliban aren't extremists because ISIS are even more extreme. Netanyahu, to preserve not only his political career but also to evade criminal charges, took charge of this ultra-orthodox leaning coalition.

@austinsmith8584 5 ай бұрын

@@nuqwestr I’m not sure what views of Kahane are mimicked from the 3rd Arab Palestine conference you are referring. I’m not advocating anything just an analysis. Nor am I supporting any views of Kahane particularly. The point I’m making is that political predictions based on birth rates of current demographics has been wrong. Kahane is the most well known figure to support a policy based on birth rates and demographics. Granted most people don’t advocate for such extreme policies so the don’t need to resort to such arguments. When I hear the demographics are destiny in regards to Israeli domestic politics rather than understanding that there is not one prediction that has been accurate. Especially demographics in Israel where a high rate of immigration has been the norm are fluid and are quite dynamic. What does a conference that called for Palestine a part of Syria have to do with discussion of Israeli political parties in the current government have anything to do with this? Palestine is an integral part of...the independent Arab Government of Syria within an Arab Union, free of any foreign influence or protection". From Wars to Nakbeh: Developments in Bethlehem, Palestine, 1917-1949 Adnan A. Musallam

@nuqwestr 5 ай бұрын

@@austinsmith8584 The reference to the 3rd Arab Palestine Congress is available online it its original form, not an analysis, a prime source. I recommend reading it, the language has not changed in over 100 years.

@kingace6186 5 ай бұрын

"Israel, a state 8 years younger than Biden--"😳That contextualization was shocking.

@Independence4545 5 ай бұрын

Apartheid only cared about its own race, the african region also once wanted to be a zionist place, although in the end it failed. PaIestine has Iong wanted lndependence and rejected jewish immigrants. The palestinian muslim-christian association in 1918 rejected jewish immigrants. There will always be groups fighting for full palestinian independence. And hundreds of thousands of christians who were expeIIed after thousands of years in paIestine.

@edoardoturco8780 5 ай бұрын

@@Independence4545 That is understandable, but after the Holocaust and the Second World conflict became inevitable, a Jewish State in the area of the British Mandate of Palestine. If the partition of 1947 was to be accepted, on second thought, a lot of problems would have been avoided for the Palestinian population.

@DartLuke 5 ай бұрын

Most of the Middle East and African states are younger than Biden. Also Palestinian state never exists.

@harrisrobin 5 ай бұрын

@@edoardoturco8780netanyahu admitted that he actively prevented a Palestinian state. framing it the way you do makes it seem like Palestinians rejected every good deal they’ve received when in fact, they were not given a tenable deal or taken seriously.

@orboakin8074 5 ай бұрын

Not really. Both Biden and Israel are older than my country, Nigeria 😂

@gavinmcclenaghan7787 5 ай бұрын

I find the “Game Theory” angle of your videos to be very intellectually stimulating and calming. They broaden my thinking of what motivations could be in play, and what is at stake. But the most useful aspect is the discussion on what is needed to actualize each possibility. As things unfold and more information becomes available the possibilities tend to narrow down from what was already considered. It doesn’t make the world a more friendly place, but it does make it more predictable for me. And I am grateful for that.

@soul0360 5 ай бұрын

I absolutely agree. The best thing is, that since I started watching his and similar channels. I have started to use the same kind of thinking when watching other events unfolding. Such as local/national politics, or even news in general. For me, I think it has made me a better consumer of news, and i get a better understanding of the world. On a daily basis, my brain is being trained, by asking "why", "who benefits and how". So when I look for alternate or more thorough news sources for a story. I find it easier to spot propaganda, or even gain valuable insight from propaganda sources, that I would othervise not notice, or worse, take as fact.

@gavinmcclenaghan7787 5 ай бұрын

@@soul0360 Yes! Exactly. I have become more open to entertaining possibilities from whomever presents them, but weight each more critically based on the explanations (or not) of motives and mechanisms by which the possibilities may be realized. Junk news interests me less, expert analysis much more so. And I am better at (in my own judgement) at consuming it rather than merely accepting it. I'm getting such a powerful mental framework out of this channel's content.

@LuKiSCraft 5 ай бұрын

Yep. Geopolitics is all game theory. Too many people fail to understand this leading them to grossly oversimplify the situation. The number of people that think they know better than state-run intelligence agencies on Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel is pretty amusing.

@impalabeeper 5 ай бұрын

That's what geopolitics really is: game theory. A lot of people view politics in more personalised and moral lens. But politics, especially geopolitics, is more governed by game theory even if there is place for morality. Governments only look after their own interests-- detached and passionless.

@bigbluebuttonman1137 5 ай бұрын

There is value in a clinical, reserved analysis.

@Ynhockey 5 ай бұрын

It's very unlikely that anything having to do with the Palestinian issue was the hold-up in the negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Rather it has to do with what Saudi Arabia wants from the US, namely a mutual defense treaty and nuclear technology. Both Israel and the US are uncomfortable with both of these. The Saudis couldn't care less about Hamas. They're also strong allies of the UAE, which are extremely anti-Hamas.

@advancetotabletop5328 5 ай бұрын

Hamas finding out that when you try to throw over other ME governments (Jordan, Egypt), their countries are happy to not support you. Thanks for the video!

@ahrlj24 5 ай бұрын

Wrong. - Saudi Crown Prince called for embargo against Israel. - Saudi Arabia and Iran are getting closer with Chinese mediation. Iran president and foreign minister and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince met multiple times since Oct 7. - Putin was given a royal welcome by KSA and UAE recently. A sign that they will not abide by westerners. - Egyptian border officials helps Hamas smuggle in weapons through tunnel. - On Oct 8 Egyptian Police shot to death 2 Israelis. 3 More Israelis was shot to death in middle of 2023 by Egyptian military. - Egypt, Jordan, KSA all voted for Ceasefire. - KSA, UAE, or Egypt have not joined the coalition against Houthis to protect shipping lanes in Red Sea.

@adamelghalmi9771 5 ай бұрын

Jordan, egypt, syria, and lebanon aren't best pals with israel you know. in fact the latter two are actually enemies of israel lol. and relations have been souring ever since the conflict. im not saying all out war will break out but things won't be exactly as it was before. things will be tense between them

@mystery3645 5 ай бұрын

Can't forget about past palestinian milita groups in Kuwait and Lebanon

@Dann1SP 5 ай бұрын

Most Egyptian and Jordanian civilians support Hamas lol

@LilyDiorMusic 5 ай бұрын

@@Dann1SPwhich is bizarre when you know the history but not when you realise how deep the ideology of the Muslim brotherhood is entrenched.

@jakeaurod 5 ай бұрын

I was told there would be backfire. I'm not sure the video answered or even addressed the question it presents... or did I zone out during the presentation? I thought there would be more about how it would backfire for Hamas.

@jamesburke3803 5 ай бұрын

That was my observation! Click bait! I'm disappointed in Mr. Spaniel!

@griffinguzaitis4572 5 ай бұрын

In short: Hamas’ attack has destroyed Netanyahu’s credibility on internal security in Israel, meaning that his political career is over. The centrist, liberal opposition to Netanyahu is likely to win the next election and will not need nor attempt to gain support from the pro-settler parties on the right. Therefore, the next government will be less hospitable to settlers in the West Bank and may clear a key obstacle to the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations. If that happens, then Hamas’ attack would have backfired because it made a Saudi-Israeli normalization more likely, not less.

@Insideman666 5 ай бұрын

So far it has backfired because no other Arab country has declared war on Israel on behalf of Hamas. That was the whole point of their October 7th “preventive” attack, so they could solicit a harsh response from Israel and turn the international community against them but so far nothing has come of it other than more support for Israel. You are meant to pay attention and extract information when presented with something that is discussing certain facts, then you come up with a conclusion. I know it’s difficult when you don’t have someone else do the thinking for you but it doesn’t hurt to try 😊

@uriman9502 5 ай бұрын

I think he proposed that the attack may, in the end, lead to reelections in Israel, then less right parties will be in control. New government will more likely compromise with Saudi Arabia.

@jakeaurod 5 ай бұрын

@@Insideman666 Someone else doing the work is entirely the point of a presentation.

@Zryrr 5 ай бұрын

This all makes sense. another great video william

@nic_4849 5 ай бұрын

Thank goodness you dropped another video. I can keep up my well-informed, international geopolitics expertise shtick for another week. 😊

@bowlampar 5 ай бұрын

Israel and Saudi Arabia ongoing normalization talks may have been one of the reasons Iranian Proxy is pushing ahead with a bigger terror assault into Israel territory on Oct 7th in additional of firing rockets only. The talks between both sides is stalled at end of day.

@ItamarO93 5 ай бұрын

Most definetly, but there is also a Russian conection. Russia has much to lose from this, from political power in the area to weapon deal in one of the biggest arms markets in the world.

@kingace6186 5 ай бұрын

Surface level analysis.

@Butter9322 5 ай бұрын

Iran didn't plan October 7th you fool. You're brainwashed by the US/Israel media. It was a solely Hamas venture, and that's been obvious since the beginning.

@MarkMuhammad190 5 ай бұрын

@@kingace6186what's your take then?

@Independence4545 5 ай бұрын

@pyro1047 5 ай бұрын

One correction, after the Saudi oil fields were attacked the US DID help, just not overtly. The issue was the SA Patriot battery's weren't managed by SA properly, letting the drones slip through and an ineffective response from SA air defense. (One example is the video of an SA Patriot missile launching, then immediately turning hard right into the ground just after launch. When properly emplaced the first thing you do is have the radar map the surrounding terrain so it can store that map and guide missiles around and not in to it.) The US sent people to review what went wrong, and after investigating they advised the Saudis what corrections they needed to make to properly use the system to its full capability and effectiveness. So we DID help the Saudis and improved their air defense abilities, we just didn't start WWIII by retaliating on behalf of them against Iran militarily.

@oohhboy-funhouse 5 ай бұрын

That's more after sales tech support than actual "Help".

@bluemountain4181 5 ай бұрын

War between the US and Iran would not be WW3, that's hyperbole. War against Iran would be on par with Iraq 2003, a major war but not a World War.

@Independence4545 5 ай бұрын

@insaniam_convertunt_scientiam 5 ай бұрын

Give a man a fish, he’ll shoot missiles at the ground. Teach a man to fish and hope he learns to RTM

@mystery8207 5 ай бұрын

@@bluemountain4181I mean to be fair. It doesn’t seem like it’ll just be a War with Iran. There are many smaller countries with smaller armies that America would have to deal with. America could probably win but not without a lot of blowback from its citizens and a blow to its economy

@FrozenSpector 5 ай бұрын

Great coverage as always. Keep up the content, it always feels more informative than other sources, but I’d always best to supplement news from multiple sources. Really appreciate the work you do!

@englishspresso6193 5 ай бұрын

Briliantly explained . Thanks Mr. Spaniel.

@gaetan4164 5 ай бұрын

Picking a fight is easy. Picking a fight you're sure to win on the other hand...

@JoeyP946 5 ай бұрын

There is not much "alledged" about Iranian support for Houthi rebels

@user-th3bo2yp1t 5 ай бұрын

Are you trying to tell me the houthis did not engineer balistic missiles by themselves?

@JoeyP946 5 ай бұрын

@@user-th3bo2yp1t Is that what my comment said? Impressive, what else did it say?

@user-th3bo2yp1t 5 ай бұрын

@@JoeyP946 I was just sarcasticly pointing out how obvious it is that they are armed by iran.

@JoeyP946 5 ай бұрын

@@user-th3bo2yp1t I cannot differentiate between you being sarcastic, and an actual pro palestine person talking rubbish

@asan1050 5 ай бұрын

William Thank you for posting.

@Mudig 5 ай бұрын

They miscalculated the Prince's unwavering greed.

@fabiofaria4243 5 ай бұрын

Gentleman, thanks for your original and quite interesting analysis. From my part, if you allow me to state it, I think Hamas' plans have backfired on an egregious scale. In my humble view, to begin with, Iran, Russia and Turkey are coming out of this conflict completely demoralized, because so far (Dec 26 2023) they have not raised their fingers to help Hamas, and Iran and Turkey have publicly stated that "if Israel invaded the Gaza Strip they would enter into the war", and Israel indeed invaded it, and has already acquired full control of its Northern part, and probably, in un unpredictable time span, but, say it, in the next three months, or so, it will acquire full control of Gaza Strip, and that is extremely bad for Iran and Turkey's reputation. I do not remember having heard any bold statement by Putin threatening Israel, but Israel has been bombing Iranian basis in Syria, and invading Syria's air space with impunity and Russia, that has its own base there, is not doing anything to stop Israel either. And this is extremely demoralizing for Russia, the more so because it simply confirms that Russia is too busy now with Ukraine to get involved in another problem. That is, Russia is telling the world it cannot deal with two problems at the same time. And the Arab world is also crossing their arms. They are not at all sending help to Hamas. Showing that either they do not care about Hamas' fate or they are afraid of Israel. Whatever the reason, this is an admission that Israel is the great power in the region and that Israel can and will do whatever it pleases and there is not any power, or combination of powers in the region capable (or willing) to check Israel. And finally there is the horrible behavior of Hamas' leaders. They are hiding like rats in their tunnels. They are great masters in verbal wars but do not have the guts to face Israeli soldiers. They prefer to sit comfortably in their palaces in Catar, or in the case of Sinwar, apparerntly keeps himself hiding that a rat. So, when this conflict ends, what moral authority these Hamas' leaders will have? So far, what I am seeing is Israel emerging as the great victor and the Muslim world emerging as the great losers. This is why I think Hamas' plans have backfired already. Keep doing your excellent analysis!

@prophet1782 5 ай бұрын

Well Analysed. It is believed that Ano.Super power is behind Iran to keep US away from it's activities that US is Against.

@prophet1782 5 ай бұрын

As for the Gaza conflict my view Briefly is that There is nothing such as Palestinian Race .WB and Gazans are Arabs. Palestine was a Fake name planted on Judea and Samaria by the Romans. Jews were looted and kicked out of all Arab Countries in 1948. Israel took them in. WB and Gazans were migrant Arabs in Judea and Samaria. Like Israel Arab countries should take their people in from WB and Gaza. Conflict Solved. I know it's not Easy but that is the only solution. The Fake words Palestine and Palestinian is the Root cause of the Conflict. Israel's hands were tied in 48 .There was pressure to maintain Status Quo etc. The bit of soft food (Palestine) is baked solid on the oven tray (Judea and Samaria) and has become part of the tray. Steel Brush and Scrapers will not remove it .We need chisel and hammer. Stop calling them Palestinian. Call them Arabs and the Conflict will sort itself out.

@davidreeves8266 5 ай бұрын

Very, very well said...

@fabiofaria4243 5 ай бұрын

@@davidreeves8266 Thank you!!!

@TruthSeeker01 5 ай бұрын

I agree

@joeyfitz9 5 ай бұрын

Another OUTSTANDING video! Thank you so very much for your excellent analysis and summation.

@TheSpiritof76 5 ай бұрын

Your videos are always so well researched and don't miss any details it's amazing, great content as always!

@paclin9951 5 ай бұрын

However, he seems to be really out of his area of expertise here. Basic mistakes like comparing public military expenditures is always a red flag. If one is ever to do so, major caveats need to be addressed, like PPP and how the US includes many non-fighting expenditures in its military budget for domestic political reasons. Iran on the other hand operates an international terrorist network with highly cost effective strategies, but the Quds Force most certainly does not publish its budget.

@bipolitthefighter2599 5 ай бұрын

Thanks for keeping me informed

@lx4 5 ай бұрын

Don't the ultra-Orthodox tend to vote for their own parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism), not the far-right settlement parties as implied here? It is true that they are a part of the Netanyahu government but they aren't typically associated with the settlements.

@joshmich873 5 ай бұрын

Yes thank you for pointing that out

@sushipizza4439 5 ай бұрын

Some probably vote Netanyahu

@RealxPita 5 ай бұрын

Great summary! Thank you 👍

@gemmalee3032 5 ай бұрын

Now i understand why Hamas strategy is to fight in the information war, rallying the free palestinian, pro-Hamas street protests to disrupt foreign governments and pressure them towards them to veer away from Israel and support to its cause.

@KapitainZino 5 ай бұрын

Very interesting thoughts indeed! Another great video from William!

@MDP1702 5 ай бұрын

A recent poll of a pro-israel think tank found that 96% of Saudi's now are against better ties with Israel, in fact they think all Arab nations should cut ties with Israel. Moreover Hamas has gained much bigger support among the Saudi population. So from a popularity standpoint, this definitely did not backfire. Ofcourse the leaders are also concerned with the geopolitical aspect, but pressure from the population and Israels actions seem more likely to push the Saudi government to take a more anti-Israel stance or at the very least demand real actions of Israels to work towards something like a two state solution (which many top Israel functionaries including Netanyahu shot down recently, so good luck with that).

@soul0360 5 ай бұрын

Generally you will almost never get 96% of people to agree on anything. So I highly doubt the validity of that poll. No matter the source. A link, or even mentioning which Think tank, would always be nice though, when citing a poll. If you want to be taken serious. As to a two state solution. You are correct, that is not something Netanyahu wants. Same goes for the right wing parties he relies on to stay in power. But as was mentioned in the video 16:37 . Chances are that he will not be in power, come the next election. So what he wants doesn't really matter. The left and center in Israel has generally been more open dialog with the Palestinians. Including for a two state solution. With this said though. A two state solution is still going to be hard to accomplish. Despite what an Israeli government wants. Since Hamas is the defacto power in the Gaza strip, at least for now, meaning they are the ones they would have to negotiate with. And many Palestinians or people supporting their plight the world over, believe in the slogan "From the river, to the sea(...)". Which was first introduced by PLO in the 1960's, and still has traction in some parts of their leadership and supporters.

@MDP1702 5 ай бұрын

@@soul0360 Even before the war ties with Israel wasn't popular with the Saudi people and with what is happening now, 96% is definitely possible. The think tank is "Washington Institute for Near Eastern Affairs" It isn't just Netanyahu and the right wing parties, the two states solution doesn't seem popular in Israel at all. It would likely involve resettling over half a million jewish settlers who now illegally settled in the westbank. This is something practically no Israeli party will want to burn their hands on. You can start a 2 state solution process without Hamas, by first just instituting it on the west bank, which also would show the palestinians in Gaza that Israel means it and thus this would put pressure on Hamas. Eitherway, Israel will always have to make the first steps.

@redblack8766 5 ай бұрын

MBS doesn't care a single bit about what the population thinks. He considers is rael a god whom he must appease to guarantee his throne and luxury as much as possible. His predecessors were more cunning and have managed to fool most of the world into thinking otherwise, but he went full psy cho. The reason you don't see public support of pale stine in SA is because everyone is absolutely terrified and paralyzed after decades of brutal tyranny. You get jailed and tor, tured for raising a flag nowadays, while zi onists openly walk around like they own the place. Heck, they're given full authority of changing school curriculums to remove anything that might be against their state. But this won't last. Either we as a people soon shed our cowardice and rise against this regime or do it after paying a far greater price than we already paid for staying silent this long.

@LuKiSCraft 5 ай бұрын

@@soul0360 Yeah, I'd be interested to see the actual link on this "96%" figure lol. Also, public opinion can change faster than you think. Remember the first 2 weeks after Hamas attacked everyone in the U.S. was "#StandWithIsrael" but fast forward 1 month when Israel was on the offensive, and everyone was "#FreePalestine" lol. Once the dust settles, if Saudi Arabia can get a west bank concession out of Israel, normalization may be supported in Saudi Arabia more than you'd think. And, given Saudi Arabia is not a democracy, it's not like you need a majority of people to support it. Even 1/3 of the population would do.

@sinnoboy0000 5 ай бұрын

I agree i don’t know how this will backfire at all quite frankly… the entire world is seeing Israel’s actions and a significant population condemn what they are doing.

@mattheide2775 5 ай бұрын

Interesting points that I have not considered. Thank you.

@freyatilly 5 ай бұрын

First time here. Really well explained. Great graphic pointers and conclussiins. Very well spoken with a dash of humour with the flavour of irony. Just subscribed.

@bierbrauer11 5 ай бұрын

Always interesting and informative, thank you sir!!

@TheJasonBorn 5 ай бұрын

I've been thinking that Hamas attack on Israel was a birthday gift to Vladimir Putin, but now I'm wondering if it was a gift to Iran by Putin on his birthday.

@MotiMota15 5 ай бұрын

You are looking at it the wrong way, buddy. This isn't a tea party.

@TheJasonBorn 5 ай бұрын

@@MotiMota15, whoever said this was a tea party? It was a criticism with several allusions and references. Don't like it or understand it, ask some questions or makes suggestions as to how I'm doing it all wrong. Don't just poo poo it. Otherwise, GTFO yourself.

@V01DIORE 5 ай бұрын

@@MotiMota15Well ironically putin just after the events invited Iran and hamas leaders for a tea party.

@zyphen5315 5 ай бұрын

@@MotiMota15 Putin is 100% involved.

@eyallevin6302 5 ай бұрын

One thing to note: National Unity is the party he is talking about that is gaining traction, however, they are center-right, therefore would likely continue expansion in the west bank (just more slowly) Based on the polls right now (which are notoriously bad for some reason) the next government will likely be National unity (secularist center-right), Yisrael Betanu (very secularist, center-right), and Yesh Atid (secularist, center - slowly becoming center-left as public opinion shifts).

@DumbSkippy 5 ай бұрын

William Spaniel makes the best video documentaries. Trustable content. Much respect !

@mogreen19 5 ай бұрын

I actually think the world was ignoring it while Hamas attacked Israel, but now that the Houthis are attacking international shipping this may bring Israel and Saudi Arabia closer together as well as get more countries active against the Houthi terrorism, which will support Israel in an indirect way.

@Insideman666 5 ай бұрын

Lmao at your naivety but then again you’re just some nobody on the internet, wtf do you know 😂

@jackthorton10 5 ай бұрын

As had been said, Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend

@tomhenry897 5 ай бұрын

No If seen as pro Israel militants both inside and out will attack

@mohammadhussain8090 5 ай бұрын

😂😂😂😂

@abdulkarimsaleh 5 ай бұрын

As saudi we have 0 interest to go fight houthi with israel because usa betrayed us and stopped weapon sales so why now we fight?

@philjameson292 5 ай бұрын

Churchill ran a unity government in the UK during WW2 and was regarded as a hero but his Conservative party lost the 1945 general election (which took place in July 45) to the Labour party So Bibi could go the same way

@tiglishnobody8750 5 ай бұрын

No Israel actually hate him and they hate him more in the war

@philjameson292 5 ай бұрын

@@tiglishnobody8750 that was exactly my point. Even if Bibi wins the war against Hamas then that wouldn't make him safe. Even heroes aren't safe from being kicked out of office

@guywexler4386 5 ай бұрын

Most of israel blames bibi for the war, while most of the blame for WW2 was placed On Chamberlin and france @@philjameson292

@tiglishnobody8750 5 ай бұрын

@@philjameson292 Ok and also he indirect responsible for it as in 2019 he admit he allow funding to Hamas

@veeaxis3892 5 ай бұрын

@@tiglishnobody8750 Ahhh, your talking about this supposed quote from March 2019: "Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas. This is part of our strategy-to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank. ". I hate to break it to you but that statement was faked by people on the opposing side to the Likud party. It was fabricated by former Kadima party member Haim Ramon, in a hit piece published by Haaretz, a left leaning Israeli newspaper. First of all, Ramon left the government in 2009, ten years earlier. And second, I already mentioned that Ramon was not even a Likud-member, and therefore couldn't have attended the meeting where Netanyahu spoke about it. And Netanyahu never funded Hamas. What actually happened was that he made a deal with Qatar, allowing them to transfer funds to Hamas. This decision was controversial inside the Likud party back then, but Netanyahu was hoping that the deal would dissuade Hamas from attacking Israel.

@lgude 5 ай бұрын

I think your analysis of Israeli politics excludes the repercussions of the Hamas attack on the Israeli left in particular . I have also heard that ultra religious right is considering accepting military service. I think the attack has temporarily unified Israel, but how the politics shake out afterwards Is unclear because all Israelis have to accommodate a new situation in which US support can not be taken for granted and anti Semitism in the West is clearly in full resurgence. My sense is that most Israelis have a lot of thinking to do about where they stand in what i believe they will see as clearly a new reality. The old argument between left and right is probably a thing of the past with more self sufficiency the order of the day.

@unflexian 5 ай бұрын

as an israeli i just hope the dream of peace won't die.

@stevehazam9991 2 ай бұрын

A VERY INTERESTING EVALUATION OF THE POLITICS IN THE AREAS, HAS GIVEN ME MUCH FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

@randallcavender2877 5 ай бұрын

I thoroughly enjoyed this video!

@minimalistic_banhaus 5 ай бұрын

I don't understand. What is exactly is your theory of how this backfires for Hamas? You say at the end of the video that future Israeli elections could favor left-leaning parties who do not wish to settle the West Bank, and settling the West Bank is inflammatory to Saudi citizens. That inflammation is the "hold up" for Saudi normalization with Israel. Are you actually suggesting that at the end of all this, Saudi citizens could be LESS inflamed at the conduct of Israel than at the beginning, and normalization could be closer now than it was before Oct 7?

@faisalislamchowdhury5183 5 ай бұрын

@@jonlittle5032 he is not wrong

@minimalistic_banhaus 5 ай бұрын

@@jonlittle5032 I'm trying to understand the implications of his theory. "Backfire" is his inequality (situation _worse_ than before action taken), not mine. I'm trying to understand at the end of this how he sees Hamas' attack as possibly improving normalization chances when their objective was the opposite. I don't know why you seem so offended at my attempt at seeking clarification.

@TheJasonBorn 5 ай бұрын

Sounds like you understand it. Of course he adds more caveats than you do. And yes, when an obstruction is removed things move more rapidly simply because they were not moving at considerable pace at all. I do expect it to take a bit of time to happen and not to happen before tempers cool. I'm not sure that that is Hamas actions backfiring though, as I really have no idea what Hamas expected the result to be.

@fh5926 5 ай бұрын

Ultimately, any Saudi support for Palestine is pro forma. There's a segment of the Saudi population that supports Palestine simply because they are Muslim. This overlaps with the group that hates Israel because it is Jewish. But the Saudi government under MBS knows which side their bread is buttered on. He is a geopolitical realist. The Saudis will wring their hand for public consumption but not actually do anything. MBS will happily throw the Palestinians under the bus. He knows exactly what a group of terrorists can do. They see the evidence in Yemen. Hezbollah, Hamas, the PLO, and the other terrorist groups that sprang up have made Palestinians "persona on grata." No Arab government can integrate with them because of the instability they'd bring. Jordan and Egypt positively hate the Palestinians. Israel didn't want to keep Gaza after the 73 war, but because Hamas is part of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt refused to take Gaza back. The same thing applies to the West Bank. Jordan refused to accept it back because the Palestinians had led an armed uprising in Jordan. Since you can't just leave terrorists to have free reign, it was left to Israel to keep a lid on those areas and to take the blame for any "oppression." Lebanon was a thriving commercial center - Beirut was the "Paris of the Near East" - but then Hezbollah took over by civil war, and the country has been run into poverty. As a result, the Palestinians have no friends, only countries that will use them as proxies or mercenaries, like Iran and Syria. Netanyahu is a selfish Machiavellian criminal. With him out of power, maybe we can get the settlements out of the West Bank and move on to a two-state solution. A prosperous and peaceful Palestine will benefit everyone, including israel.

@V01DIORE 5 ай бұрын

The civilians don’t like the religious aspect but the government hate hamas as a geopolitical aspect being a proxy for revolutionary Iran. So all these outer words of condemnation mean very little, rather I think the Saudi leadership see this as a test: Can Israel swiftly and reliably take care of our enemy? Failure means weakness and that makes them a bad partner.

@user-wj7bu9zv7i 5 ай бұрын

Another correction, for 12:15. It's not just risking losing his coalition, but also his own party, the Likud, which is center right. Also, in the opposition, there are around 11 mandates that also describe themselves as right, usually to the right on Netanyahu himself. Especially with the current situation, when all major "Palestinian" parties celebrated the 7.10 massacre and said they wished for more of it, support for a "Palestinian" state is at about 10-15% in Israel. There is no left wing alternative anymore, especially if new parties emerge after disappointment with Netanyahu.

@1tents 4 ай бұрын

I appreciate your work and effort, and I loved your GT book. Thanks for your rapier insight into what can be, at times, abstruse subject matter.

@Gametheory101 4 ай бұрын

Thank you so much!

@user-sd3hq2dt5n 5 ай бұрын

The first good video in two months i have seen about this war.

@awesomehpt8938 5 ай бұрын

They didn’t bring enough hummus to this party

@31redorange08 5 ай бұрын

Congrats on having a stock photo of a chess board that's correctly set up. A rare occurrence.

@YuryBakhnov 5 ай бұрын

very interesting and explanatory, subscribed, thank you

@ronaldl9085 5 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing your insights.

@bertrpk 5 ай бұрын

"Flashback 1981, disco was dead". LMAO

@annehersey9895 5 ай бұрын

When I started hearing all sorts of talk about Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the first thing I thought was; WTF are they talking about it openly??!! That whole idea was bound to blow up once it was known by Iran and some other nations. I’m sure some would be happy to be done with an ideological war that’s been going on since 1947. But Saudi is THE big player in the Arab world NOT Iran. So Peace with Saudi Arabia would be a big blow. And Israel, US n the Saudis knew that better than anyone and that was a deal that should have been completely hushed up until the ink was dry!

@athenak4666 5 ай бұрын

No one explains these things better than you!👍🏾 Sure wish you're my teacher in HS, & College!😊

@Eric-zo8wo 5 ай бұрын

0:00: 🌍 The complex political dynamics in the Middle East have led to a backfiring plan by Hamas to drive a wedge between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 0:00: Hamas's plan to create a rift between Israel and Saudi Arabia backfired due to intricate Israeli domestic politics. 0:12: The cliche that the enemy of my enemy is my friend is alive and well in the Middle East, leading to a complicated game over political survival and regional control. 0:30: The attack by Hamas on Israel was initially thought to be aimed at driving a wedge between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but it may ultimately backfire. 3:23: 💰 The video discusses the economic and security implications of Iran's reduced trade revenue and the surrounding conflicts. 3:23: Regional actors outpace Iran in terms of military spending, with the US leading with $877 billion. 3:45: Economic sanctions have significantly impacted Iran's trade revenue, leading to potential security concerns for neighboring countries. 4:24: Saudi Arabia faces internal and external security challenges, particularly highlighted by the 2019 drone attacks on its oil processing facilities. 7:01: 🌍 The video discusses the Iran-Iraq War, nuclear facilities, and geopolitical concerns in the Persian Gulf. 7:01: The Iran-Iraq War and the construction of a nuclear facility in Iraq with the help of France 7:21: Israel's elaborate plan to send jets through Saudi Arabia to destroy the facility 8:04: Geopolitical concerns about the United States' actions in the Persian Gulf 11:21: 🇮🇱 Israel's domestic politics and demographics hindered efforts to sweeten the pot for Saudi Arabia, leading to more aggressive settlement policies in the West Bank. 11:21: Israel's high fertility rate is driven by the ultra-Orthodox camp, which leans right wing politically. 11:47: Netanyahu's alliance with ultranationalists led to more aggressive settlement policies in the West Bank, contrary to what was needed to seal the Saudi deal. 14:33: ⚠ Hamas's plan may backfire as a result of the rally 'round the flag effect. 14:33: Hamas's political position may still come out better than expected 15:09: The rally 'round the flag effect may not work in Hamas's favor Recapped using Tammy AI

@macmcleod1188 5 ай бұрын

Nearly 2 million Palestinians live peacefully in Israel. That's why I distinguish the Palestinians in Gaza by calling them Gazans.

@eydublex823 5 ай бұрын

I'm a former expat that lived in Saudi Arabia for over a decade. Some thoughts on this. MBS is young, his reputation to those closest to him is one of paranoia, recklessness, grandiosity, and ruthlessness. Normalization efforts will , now more than ever I believe, result in an eventual fatal blow-back for his regime. The recklessness is reflected in his many failed foreign policies, and some of his domestic policies that may have already planted the seeds of his governments future downfall. Examples of these are his disastrous failed campaign in Yemen, the murder of Saudi dissident Khashogi, his Qatar blockade and Canadian fracas. Most importantly, but often glossed over, is his alienation of his own family, the religious establishment, and many of the traditional elites in Saudi society with his 2017 crackdown that saw a number of them imprisoned, tortured, dispossessed and in some occasions even murdered. All of these have weakened his standing, with the latter almost certainly guaranteeing internal opposition just waiting for an opportunity to spring into action. Saudi Arabia's government and king derives much of it's legitimacy from it's position as guardian of the two holy mosques. Saudi society, while having shifted westward culturally in it's two major cities of Riyadh and Jeddah in recent years, is still deeply religious and, even more so, committed to the Palestinian cause (one often seen as an Islamic cause not limited to the plight of Palestinians per se). Normalization with Israel has a number of major drawbacks. It will irrevocably sinks Saudi Arabia's monarchies standing in the Islamic world. It opens the door wide open to internal dissent, instability. It gives any opposition the ultimate PR ammunition in the form of it's opposition to said normalization. Saudi society will not abandon the Palestinian cause. It is simply too ingrained in their culture and religion. But I do believe MBS will press ahead. Though, without resolving the Palestinian cause it won't really matter, not least when Saudis have spent the last 76 days exposed to a steady stream of footage of death,destruction and misery from Israel's Gaza campaign. It would only be a matter of time before his policies implode, taking him with it.

@kazekamiha 5 ай бұрын

I think how stable he can keep thing will be based on two things. 1) How large a threat the population sees Iran as; there could be an acceptance of 'the lesser evil' in such a case. 2) What he can do to stabilize the situation in the West Bank and what concessions he can get. Honestly, it seems Isreal is the only stable nation in the region, and with Netty in charge it's less so then usual.

@mystery3645 5 ай бұрын

Well you can't quite forget that the palestinians have already begun driving division decades earlier with other ME countries. Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon to name a few. They all fell victim to palestinian causes and militas and are now in no way getting involved, no matter how loud the cries of the muslim fundamentalists of their respective countries are. None of those countries will blame Saudi Arabia for not getting involved. The same also goes for the Saudi ruling class. They have other interests than to back a terroristic regime that for some reason seems to have 70+% approval for terroristic activites from the population. Palestine is a powder keg where any involvement, metaphorically speaking, involves playing with matches in a room full of gunpowder. Not much good has come out of Palestine ever since the release from british mandate. Be it culturally, economically, or socially, all the region has to offer is rockets built from international monetary funding/aid and terrorist attacks glorified by the palestinian population. They have no basis of existence as a legitimate state. They stand for nothing and have no goal besides the destruction of Israel. Hamas will be no different than the Taliban when they took over Afghanistan. A bunch of unhinged gunmen stuck sitting behind a computer screen and pouting because there is no one left to blame for one's problems (and in Hamas' case nobody left to blow up).

@eydublex823 5 ай бұрын

@@kazekamiha Both your points unfortunately miss the mark with regards to the worldview of Saudis. 1) Most Saudi's pay very little attention to Iranians, especially given the recent normalization of ties that lessens their threat level considerably. There is obviously some animosity, but given that most of the differences are played out on the international scale between leaders and not the actual populations, with very little emotionally charged differences. It's not the same as say Israel storming the Al-Aqsa mosque, or the mass bombing and incredible casualty count in Gaza which is far more emotionally engaging and close to home for Saudis. 2) Even before Oct 7th, those concessions appeared to be shaping up to be quite diminutive, especially compared to what most would expect in exchange for normalization. With Israel's post Oct 7th rightward shift, concessions on the part of Israelis will be almost negligible. The Saudi govt may still be tempted to proceed, but now that would have even greater implications for them.

@rbdan 5 ай бұрын

People gloss over the "family" part because despite having his stance weakened, he is still extremely powerful. It might not be the case in 30 or 40 years, but right now it would be inaccurate to say the Saudi government is anywhere near collapse or his enemies are just "waiting for an opportunity". As long as the money continues to flow (and it will for a long time, Asia will see to it) and the US continues to back them, nobody should expect any regime changes. Saudi Arabia will eventually be a very unstable nation once the oil money runs dry and the people are asked to pay even more taxes, but not for many decades. There are too many countries industrializing at the same time to think oil demand will go down any time soon.

@nvelsen1975 5 ай бұрын

That is assuming the Saudi government fails to remind people that currently, Iranian missiles fall on Saudi homes and Israeli homes alike. It would take catholic levels of stupidity to support someone out to risk your life on purpose.

@kingace6186 5 ай бұрын

Great video. I agree.

@gamer7234 5 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@Zoharargov 5 ай бұрын

Correction to 11:05 - They didn't move the capital from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem (Jerusalem was already the capital of Israel), they moved the U.S Embassy. Also, the final analysis of Netanyahu's weakening support prior to the attack on 7.10 is misinformed. He still had well over 50% of the population supporting him and the judicial reform even during the height of the protests. He currently enjoys very broad support. Finally, there is absolutely no concrete evidence that there was any serious forewarning to the 7.10 attack. This is all very speculative. The official investigation into the reasons that lead to the 7.10 disaster hasn't even begun yet.

@N0x0ss 5 ай бұрын

It's not Capitol, it's Capital.

@Zoharargov 5 ай бұрын

@@N0x0ss Thanks I corrected it.

@pizzacheeseman2854 5 ай бұрын

For Hamas the attack, while insanely well executed, was a move of desperation. Their legitimacy is based entirely on the fact that they’re the alternative to the Palestinian authority which is seen as too pro-Israel and collaborationist with settlers in the West Bank. Hamas increasingly was seen as “soft” on Israel compared to a lot of rising smaller groups over the last couple years. I don’t think they actually expected to succeed the way they did, which was seen how while many units took hostages and then fell back or focused on military targets, many also didn’t and just went on killing sprees, and while Hamas certainly isn’t that concerned about civilian casualties, there are some records that showed at least operational leadership after the breakthrough was telling units to capture, not kill Israeli civilians. Hamas just wanted to show it was still a strong force of resistance against Israel and it was a good excuse to subordinate more radical factions.

@yoloswaggins7121 5 ай бұрын

Yeah I'm pretty sure that Hamas didn't intend to massacre civilians on Oct 7th, rather they cannot control their undisciplined men who, expecting to meet Israeli resistance, found themselves in Israeli territory with no Israeli soldiers around. So they just went nuts.

@ASWE15 5 ай бұрын

@yoloswaggins7121 according to recent reports there were considerable numbers of people who died in friendly fire by israeli forces. we still do not know the numbers, but blaming hamas when clearly israel also targets everyone, including its civilians, is foolish.

@yb6036 5 ай бұрын

@@ASWE15Israel also killed the dinosaurs

@spikertaker 5 ай бұрын

@@ASWE15 Proof?

@jacquelinef3329 5 ай бұрын

@@yoloswaggins7121 There were minimal number of civilians killed in 7th. Analysis of a datasheet from Haaretz. 500/1200-1300 (they keep magically decreasing) were soldiers. Out of 769 names: 462 IDF military (55 soldiers, 13 privates, 59 corporals, 200 sergeants of whom 45 are sergeants majors, 48 commanders, 32 lieutenants, 5 lieutenant colonels, 6 colonels, 13 captains, 37 officers, 10 inspectors, 6 intendants, 2 Lance Corp). Basically Oct 7th was a Military defeat. IDF/Netanyahu/with US support are simply taking it out on the rest of the Palestinians including the 6000+ children who were not responsible for the attacks.

@garretthowe1191 5 ай бұрын

When ranking defense spending did you use percentage of GDP or total dollar amount?

@courierton9217 5 ай бұрын

Great analysis.

@denillefleming2942 5 ай бұрын

😮Great reporting! Look forward to all of your streams! Thanks again. Netanyahu needs to go,along with the extreme anti Palestine doctrine.

@arfermo853 5 ай бұрын

Not gonna happen

@napoleonibonaparte7198 5 ай бұрын

Israel doesn't pose a threat if you don't threaten it.

@matanjamin6546 5 ай бұрын

One more interesting point, right now in the midst of war we see news about a very unique initiative by privet companies to open a continental corridor from the Persian gulf, Qatar and UAE, through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa port in the Mediterranean sea. Infact we already see trucks beggin to ship goods. That is because many ships refuse to go throu houti territory in the red sea since they started targeting ships. Its been said thay recently Egypt joined the initiative. Another thing related is a maritime coalition in the red sea involving not only NATO countries but some arab countries who chose to remain anonymous. We can guess who this countries are.

@user-uo8kb5rv7n 4 ай бұрын

Thanks!

@Gametheory101 4 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@swswgg9911 5 ай бұрын

Throwing a wrench in the Saudi-Israel relationship is peanuts compared to the wrench that's been thrown into the US-Israel relationship. Support for Israel among Americans under the age of 35 has cratered, and is unlikely to recover in any of our lifetimes. A recent essay in City Journal predicts that "Israel is on track to lose U.S. support in less than a generation," and "that the U.S. won’t just be unsupportive of Israel; it will be antagonistic to it." That would be a far more strategically valuable development to the Palestinian cause in the long term.

@niweshlekhak9646 5 ай бұрын

Israel has many tech countries for US to go away.

@joannemendiola2406 5 ай бұрын

Dream on. Israel is America and America is Israel. Nothing can change that.

@joannemendiola2406 5 ай бұрын

Palestinian cause is nothing but a nuisance.

@randywall6678 5 ай бұрын

Most people in the USA under the age of 34 are mostly uneducated dolts.

@cocktail2380 5 ай бұрын

By then would there be a "Palestine"?

@jjeherrera 5 ай бұрын

The Middle-East problem is complicated indeed, but not as much as you try to explain. Palestines have been abandoned by the Arab countries, and Hamas tried to make a point by themselves showing Israel can't be safe. The attack certainly backfired in the sense they didn't expect such a strong response by Israel.

@osric1730 5 ай бұрын

They knew exactly what to expect from Israel, and calculated accordingly. Israel cannot "defeat" Hamas, since they are planting the seeds and fertilizing the soil for Hamas 2.0. Hamas has already proved that the Israeli policy of isolating and repressing the Palestinians doesn't work and all this war is being fought for is to provide cover for Netanyahu's failure and assuage Israeli thirst for revenge. For Arab ruling elites it has proved they ignore their citizens pro-Palestinian citizens at their peril. Outside of the US this war has shaken the pro-Israeli narrative in the West, and within the US they have had to expend a vast amount of political capital to protect Israel from the consequences of policies the Israelis have pursued in defiance of the US. Not only that but its a huge kick in the nuts for the West's narrative on Ukraine and its diplomatic standing with the rest of the world. Its a massive strategic win for Hamas and a massive diplomatic loss for America that inexplicably continues to protect the only country on earth that regularly gives it the finger and offers absolutely no advantage in return.

@Account.for.Comment 5 ай бұрын

No, their whole plan was hanging on the response. That organization was making a su1cidal strategy and they knew it. It had been two months, the fighting still continued. I still remembered to people claiming it would be over by one day, then one week, then now they said it might go to next year. That their top leaders still survived and functioning meant they were prepared.

@diorocks5858 5 ай бұрын

That's true as Lebanon , frankly the Arabs sat back and watched the Palestinians destroy Lebanon and learned there lesson. When I was in the Gulf for 30 years everyone gave the same message. Palestinian and Pakistanis are danger to the world.

@RellyM1975 5 ай бұрын

🤣wayyyy off. Wrong they knew exactly how they would respond and knew in order to win they needed to win militarily and PR! They have won The Israelis have been getting their butts whipped that’s why they murdering women and children🙄. Saudi already turned down the EU and Joined briccs with China and Russia. Meanwhile Saudi benefits from the chaos in the Red Sea because the Nazis in Israel refuse to stop bombing children. When this is all over The US and the EU will be irrelevant and the only thing they will be able to do is throw a tantrum like a bitter ex and still that won’t change the facts.

@robertstan298 5 ай бұрын

You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

@boufns8 5 ай бұрын

What were the minimum demands from Saudi Arabia? Just stopping the settlements or did I miss a part of the video?

@stbarnabas3138 4 ай бұрын

It’s wisdom not to be involved in a war you cannot win. It’s also wisdom not fight a war at the expense of its citizens. Hamas did this!😮

@piercemaciain4847 5 ай бұрын

I have seen racist attitudes between Persians/Iranians and Arabs in their diaspora communities in the West. Do those attitudes exist in Iran and Saudi Arabia as well?

@nuqwestr 5 ай бұрын

Asked the Jordanians after the PLO assassinated their PM.

@coldwarrior78 5 ай бұрын

Short answer, yes, both ways. Based on my experience in the Gulf, admittedly as an outsider, Arabs look down on Persians and Persians look down on Arabs. I always thought it was a Sunni/Shia thing, but it definitely has an ethnic element.

@UGNAvalon 5 ай бұрын

Racism against foreigners? Or disdain toward expats?

@IDK-gh4st 5 ай бұрын

Saudi here. Racism does exist and most ppl here don't like the Persians, not necessarily because of Sunni/Shia (Shia Saudis aren't discriminated against socially) but mostly because of Iran's revolutionary export ideology ever since '79. My father sometimes spoke of his dealing with Iranians Pre-'79, he used to praise their manners/professionalism.

@nuqwestr 5 ай бұрын

@@IDK-gh4st Lots of Israelis in Iran pre-1979, my neighborhood in Los Angeles became a refuge for both. You don't mention Wahhabism? I'd also be curious on your take of the war between Ibn Saud and Sharif Hussein, the capture of The Hejaz before oil was discovered, and how are the Hashemites viewed for losing control of Jerusalem?

@Rottengoal 5 ай бұрын

I mean it has backfired slightly already. A few days ago the UAE and Saudi Arabia gave Abbas an ultimatum to resign and for there to be a new government that aligns more with their intrests. Tough really only time will tell too much is happening at the same time

@rosemaryderrington8313 3 ай бұрын

Very Helpful thank you.

@ADobbin1 5 ай бұрын

Iran tried to drive a wedge between Israel and Saudi arabia using Hamas. Whether it has worked or not has yet to be determined. The real regional conflict is between Iran and Saudi arabia arguing over who has primacy in Islam. Israel and palestine is just a side show to that.

@amroshawky7246 5 ай бұрын

This is more than just Iran. The enemy of my enemy ideology is alive and well in the middle east. Right now, the middle east is split between two sides, either you're an ally of the West or you are not. It's not even about Israel anymore, it's about getting on America's good side to get an edge over the growing Russian-Persian influence in the region. Israel is just another chess piece. This video is very good and informative, but the middle east is more than KSA, Israel and Iran. Iran isn't the only country that's detests the USA and Israel. Qatar is definitely in the mix and Russia's influence definitely plays an important geopolitical role in the ongoing conflicts in the middle east.

@JohnCena-ex6zt 5 ай бұрын

Not really, iran and saudi arabia are getting closer to each other thanks to china's involvement. Pay more attention to the news before commenting

@KarlFranz5017 5 ай бұрын

Idk why are you asking me?????

@myriaddsystems 5 ай бұрын

Fascinating insights

@rashidabaakza8554 5 ай бұрын

Good video and political analysis👍

@1nathan255 5 ай бұрын

God once says….more

@alex_zetsu 5 ай бұрын

If "the costs to Hamas might exceed whatever benefits they get" is what you mean by "backfire", the answer is maybe. If what you mean by "backfire" is they don't even get the benefit of throwing a wrench into the Saudi-Israeli relationship, I'd say no. Despite what you say, I think the odds of normalization are lower today than they were before all the Palestinian casualties happened. Regardless of if those civilian casualties are just the normal collateral damage of urban warfare (it's hard to fire an artillery shell at a sniper and _not_ hit a civilian) or them employing the Dahiya doctrine (which basically is _"friends and family_ of terrorists are fair game even if they are not combatants"), it really doesn't matter the Saudi general public and the current King kind of don't want them dead and would prefer they not be physically harmed. Maybe the odds of normalization went from 99.9% to 99%, maybe from 99% to 75%, maybe from 30% to 25%, but whatever the case I'm sure the odds are lower even if there is a new PM in the future.

@seadkolasinac7220 5 ай бұрын

good point

@MrCasablanca82 5 ай бұрын

Good point, but I think the Saudis don't really care about any casualties, they will normalize as soon as the fighting is over. They see the Palestinians as nuisance nothing more. Of course I am talking about the Government not the Saudi people.

@mystery8207 5 ай бұрын

@@MrCasablanca82Well if not for the fact that the entire world is inching away from both the US and Israel. I’d say Saudi would rather take its chances with normalizing ties with other nations around it like China and the other Arab countries than involve itself with Israel

@MrCasablanca82 5 ай бұрын

@@mystery8207 I agree with you fully, and it would make perfect sense, but given that I originated from that area and listen to the news in Arabic, I can tell you for a fact that the Saudi government sees the Palestinians as nuisance , they only care about money and power, not what is right or wrong, fair or unfair.

@mystery8207 5 ай бұрын

@@MrCasablanca82 Yeah most people already know. I’m solely speaking of economic interests. Siding with America now especially when their reputation has take a hit with this hole ordeal would be a bad decision

@casienwhey 5 ай бұрын

Letting the Shah of Iran get overthrown was a colossal mistake.

@Tshepo10111 3 ай бұрын

They call me MR KNOW IT ALL in my village, Thanks to this channel.

@wakannnai1 5 ай бұрын

I'm very disappointed in this analysis. It's missing a ton of recent developments which include normalization of Saudi-Iranian ties, Turkey and their normalization of ties with Syria, the Iranian-Turkish rivalry for influence in the Middle East, along with failing to mention the near universal domestic climate in virtually every Arab country and the potential high destabilization factor an anti-Hamas/Pro-Israeli would have. In addition, it fails to take into account the rapidly declining influence the US/Europe has in the Middle East (through numerous notable foreign policy blunders). All of these need to be taken into account for any analysis. There is very little of value here.

@ChickenArad1 5 ай бұрын

False

@koshersalaami 5 ай бұрын

Uh, this video discusses Saudi-Iranian relations, including China’s efforts, in detail, and also discusses declining US involvement as a factor driving Saudi attitudes toward Israel. If you’re going to criticize the video, at least have the courtesy to watch it.

@bombheadgames9565 5 ай бұрын

You have to ask WHY NOW? and precisely what military advantage did Hamas hope to gain from its reckless attack into Israel? .. Only Russia has profited from the resulting instability .. Russia hosted Hamas a few days beforehand .. I think that would have been a "We need you to kick off now, otherwise we hold back arms to you" kind of discussion. What else would force Hamas to be so stupid?

@advancetotabletop5328 5 ай бұрын

Hamas may have thought that they‘d get more support from the ME. They did not realize much of the ME hates Hamas as well. I definitely think Russia has a connection to it. The more wars to distract the USA from Ukraine, the better. Hamas is succeeding with social media and the media, perhaps with the aid of Russian troll farms.

@MotiMota15 5 ай бұрын

They hoped Hezbollah would join in while igniting the West Bank. A miscalculation that would cost them their control over Gaza.

@fh5926 5 ай бұрын

Iran hopes to benefit by preventing normalization of relations between Saudi and Israel. Russia also benefits by distracting from the Ukraine conflict. Funny that Iran and Russia have been working together very closely lately.

@veeaxis3892 5 ай бұрын

@@MotiMota15 Don't forget that Israeli society was more polarized than ever before as a result of the judicial reform. Many young soldiers had threatened to not show up if called up for mobilisation, since they didn't want to defend a dictatorship. It was a perfect opportunity for Hamas to strike now, and the date marking 50 years ( + one day) since the Yom Kippur war was symbolic too. Unfortunately for them, Hamas managed to do in one day what the Israeli government failed to do in years - to unite the Jews, Arabs and seculars in Israel, and now Hamas has to face all of them.

@Carl-Gauss 5 ай бұрын

It’s like with Japanese in December 1941. The move was reckless but if they continued to wait, time was simply against them.

@seanaran 5 ай бұрын

Military expenditure, however relevant, is not a significant variable to predict military strength. Recent military performance has a much more significant explanatory power. Analyzing Israel’s recent performance against Hizbollah and Hamas and Saudi’s performance against Houthis in Yemen substantiates the argument.

@agazzii 5 ай бұрын

Who compares an army strength depending on how much they spend lol

@WippetWzrd 5 ай бұрын

If Saudi Arabia knows what’s good for them they better cling to Israel and the greater international coalition like there’s no tomorrow. There positions is much more tenuous than most would admit.

@khantv3531 5 ай бұрын

It's the sentiment of people that don't go hand in hand with governments !

@N0x0ss 5 ай бұрын

They didn't join the sea coalition against the Houthi, they clearly do not want to take position

@WippetWzrd 5 ай бұрын

@@N0x0ss that’s why I’m saying they better cling to it because it’s a better position than their current one. It’s obviously the easiest move to make for them to try and galvanize good will amongst the greater international community. It’s been a rough 5-6 years for Saudi pr.

@asmo1313 5 ай бұрын

7 october was a tactical succes and a strategic failure. Pyrrhus probably wants to have a word with them after Israel sends them to meet their maker

@thepedrothethethe6151 5 ай бұрын

The diplomatic quagmire that Israel is getting seems forgotten on you

@Account.for.Comment 5 ай бұрын

@@thepedrothethethe6151he simply comment the same way as most military fans think. The overwhelmingly stronger side will always curbstomp the weaker one. I still remember people claiming Russia will sack Kiev in a day, Gaza will be flatten in a week, now it is Yemeni going to be next for short surprise. Of course, the only thing certain in wars, is that things will not going to planned.

@berndarndt9924 5 ай бұрын

How is it a strategic failure? Israel is less supportable each day. And hamas radicalizes more and more people. Israel prefers to freeze the conflict and take over the west bank little by little. And israel, similar to russia, can only dominate their enemy if they flatten entire blocks.

@senaniwet 5 ай бұрын

Thanks

@Gametheory101 5 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@davidsarraf4065 3 ай бұрын

Great video

@gervil100 5 ай бұрын

What a stupid analysis to measure a country's military strength on what they spend on its military 😂

@Jake-rs9nq 5 ай бұрын

More reasonable than using something like troop count. A well equiped army of 10,000 could easily defeat a poorly armed force of 100,000.

@banto1 5 ай бұрын

Very true. Saudi and Qatari expenses are mostly for equipment that they don't have the soldiers to operate. Israeli and US expenses are mostly for pensions and salaries. Iran on the other hand seems to make a lot more weapons and support large forces and many proxies than that measly $6B would be able to cover.

@banto1 5 ай бұрын

@@jonlittle5032 straight quote from cbo.gov "In the 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion. (Of that total, $230 billion is for DoD and $321 billion is for VA.)"

@jonsitron11 5 ай бұрын

Yemayno?! Merry Christmas, Regardless of the answer!

@ieuanhunt552 5 ай бұрын

Wtf is a Yemayno

@jonsitron11 5 ай бұрын

@@ieuanhunt552 “yeah maybe no” was the gist of it

@General12th 5 ай бұрын

Hi William! There should be less geopolitical uncertainty and more cute dolphins.

@EnigmaHood 5 ай бұрын

0:49 I don't agree with that phrasing. There are many reasons for the attack, but one of them was to put an end to the normalization process between the two, and it worked. Saudi Arabia has made it clear that there will be no normalization process until the issue of Palestine has been resolved.