How Martin Wolf Understands This Global Economic Moment

[@ambition112]

6:05: 💡 The global economy is undergoing a paradigm shift due to long-term structural shifts, unexpected shocks, and underlying fragilities. 8:51: 🌍 The world is experiencing profound transformations due to China's rise, fragmentation in the global system, and Western dominance in certain areas. 17:16: 💼 Globalization has shaped the world economy over the past 40 years, encompassing trade, services, capital flows, ideas, and people. However, the rise of China, the pandemic, and the desire to diversify production may lead to a shift in the economic center of gravity towards Asian countries like India. De-globalization is a complex process with some aspects likely to change while others endure. 26:18: 🌍 Globalization has reached its peak and is now showing signs of slowing down, but a complete reversal is unlikely. 34:35: 🌍 The US and Asian countries have different perspectives on globalization, with India having a self-sufficiency dream. Within the US, there are two major critiques of globalization: the China shock argument and the China entanglement argument, leading to different policy directions. 49:03: 🤔 The speaker raises concerns about the Biden administration's proposed policy solutions, suggesting that they may not be sufficient to achieve their objectives and reshape the economy. 52:40: 📊 The speaker is sympathetic to the objectives of the policies but doubts their transformative impact. They acknowledge the political constraints and the need for a domestic manufacturing base. The effectiveness of the policies in generating investment and creating jobs is uncertain. Building a resilient manufacturing sector is considered important, but the ability to adapt skills to new areas is unclear. 1:00:51: 💡 The speaker discusses the potential benefits and risks of revitalizing manufacturing in the United States, emphasizing the need for competitive industries and questioning the overall economic impact. They also highlight the shocks and fragilities facing the global economy, including the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and high levels of debt. The speaker acknowledges their uncertainty about the future of inflation and interest rates, but notes the possibility of labor market indicators contributing to a reduction in inflation. 1:10:32: 📉 The labor market seems to be cooling off without a significant rise in unemployment, which has led to a slowdown in wage growth and inflation, potentially eliminating the need for further tightening of monetary policy. 1:20:03: 📚 The speaker discusses the potential trajectories for the global economy, emphasizing the importance of managing political and geopolitical risks, as well as technological advancements. 1:26:32: 📚 The importance of controlling technology, the decline in productivity growth, and the need for sustainable growth in society. Recap by Tammy AI

[@SM-SaMo]

Excellent podcast! Thank you Ezra & Team & Martin Wolf!

[@henryterranauta9100]

🇺🇸🇷🇺What is Democracy ??? 1:26:32 Many people talks about it without defining it🎪🎪🎪🎪 For me it is the right to choose between the already chosen oligarchs either Republicans or Democrats🇫🇷🇧🇷🇨🇳No wonder citizens give up on voting !!!🇫🇷🇧🇷🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳Otherwise, a wonderful dialogue with Dr Martin Wolff👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[@pointgreece4331]

My friend, who represent a steel producer from Italy in India, said that there are no chance for India to develop strong industry because of negative selection of workforce based on caste system. There could be a capable persons in data coding or scientists but no entrepreneurs who develop industry in India like we witness in China or Vietnam. Also the climate is extremally hot and lack of commodities in India is already present. India is 3 times smaller in territory compared to China. China have Russia and Kazakhstan as a source for cheap commodities. China heavily invested in African countries to ensure sources of needed commodities for its industry.

[@0609Bhuwan]

Your Italian friend has no clue about what he is talking about.... Caste system is of no consideration in any labour selection ... Take out uninhabitable areas of Tibet and Xinjiang and arable and usable land in China is smaller than India... Besides crude oil India is a bigger commodity exporter e.g Iron Ore or Rice... Unlike China India is self sufficient in Food... If India is hot then China is too cold for six months.....

[@Chris-rv5mm]

This makes me sad. That the world bank didn't understand empires rise and fall. That they didn't anticipate the rise of SE asia. I almost want to call BS.

[@MonteRosa849]

What an incredibly informative and educational discussion! Thank you very much Mr. Klein.

[@gogudelagaze1585]

I have to say I'm somewhat confused this podcast gets so little attention. This is some pretty good stuff.

[@stephen_hynes]

Gets lots of attention on nyt audio and other places

[@advocate1563]

I came for martin wolf. I avoid nyt otherwise like the plague.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Folks don't like to think or reflect on the ideas of intelligence. This is why MSM has many Followers.

[@myindigoblues5796]

This is excellent, thank you 🙏

[@kellyrostad8683]

Great information about our world.

[@SarahLesko-s9h]

I am confused as this sounds like Ezra's voice, but they say it's a guest host. ???

[@MissDemeanor99]

He definitely sounds a lot like Ezra, both in his mannerisms of speech, including the vocal fry as well as the pauses, etc.

[@Lius525]

Why does he spoke EXACTLY like Ezra? His cadence is practically identical😂😂

[@rjpet50]

A lot of economist hedging-could this or could be that. “The best thing to do is do nothing and watch.” Hard to see how this discussion of China here and there could have wandered for more than 90 minutes and no discussion of the demographic collapse that is facing Chine, and transforming it from the low cost employee provider to a country devoid of millennials and no longer the low cost spread. Would be good to have Peter Zeihan on to put some context on that major shift that was missing here.

[@Kwolfx]

Yes, a more in depth forecast might have mentioned that China has likely reached it's economic apogee and appears to be on the cusp of a major and possibly permanent decline; along with the risks this may create for the West and the United States, because China's fall isn't all good news for the rest of the world.

[@mgb5170]

It's also a form of British speaking, "as it were" and ridiculous clauses to emit humility which is far outdated.

[@mangalapalliv]

Can somebody PLEASE... PLEASE... help me with the details of the music that got played at 1:02:32....

[@jessicasquire]

It’s such a blessing that my husband and I aren’t just married, but we’re also each other’s best strategic partner in business. I’m great at what he lacks, he’s great at what I lack and we have an Adviser to work with. Praise God!! And thank you for the awesome content!

[@Lemariecooper]

That is so amazing, I’m trying to get LLC at 40. I wish at 55 I will be testifying to similar success with my partner.

[@jessicasquire]

The only way I was able to scale through all of this without stress was by working with a financial adviser. My adviser STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS has always had my back all through the process of property investment and investing in general. You can glance her name up on the internet and verify her yourself. She has years of financial market experience.

[@Lemariecooper]

Okay, Thx. I found her web page

[@Erikkurilla01]

Thanks for sharing this financial insight. I currently make 106k/yr. No home or Investment and I work from home. I need to do something quick or else I’m going to be paying a lot to the IRS come tax season.

[@cornflake40]

So the global economy comes down to "dominance". Historically, China has never been a colonizer, and along with that has not participated in its atrocities. It has been an inward looking country. There is nothing to worry about with China.

[@psikeyhackr6914]

Where does the annual data on the depreciation of durable consumer goods fit into the current economic tectonic shifts?

[@cooper1819]

Very good discussion, and agree with Martin that is not possible to reverse back. Think is fundamentally incorrect to think that the America manufacturing and economy been planned and steered towards certain directions "to help" other economies like in Europe or Asia. US is much too entrepreneur, capitalist and is more guided through series of many events - some planned, mostly opportunistic. America's growth started post war to provide products for Europe, but also WWII help bring America manufacturing around the world, following the army. Then since late 60s to extend these manufacturing from toys, to garments, shoes around Asia (Singapore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, even Indonesia). That helped many US companies make lots of money. And when China open up in 80s, these factories moved from around Asia to China. They just follow cheaper labor... and after these decades of offshoring... So it is not only China that is better than America in their previous strong domains... like Taiwan for high-tech chips, Korea for electronics, Japan for cars, India for Info tech and etc. But USA will always come up on top base on her immigrant model, able to attract the top & best in the world, that others cannot.

[@jj4cpw]

Never heard of Martin Wolf before but as between Paul Krugman and Peter Schiff, he seems the most thoughtful (though I also recommend Lyn Alden on the financial side). Not sure, though, I'm quite as hopeful as he is.

[@keqinyangmuseum6183]

Question: It's the time to change world economy policy now? Do you think USD is entire world economy fundamentals policy? Thanks

[@BestFitSquareChannel]

Superb! Among my favorites. Saved. Listened twice!!! Thank you. Great job of guest host, bravo! Well done… 🥂

[@JoseSantos-xh9mp]

I recommend the Martin s Book about 2008 crisis!

[@lindakingsley9486]

I am wondering if this inflation rise is to get China out of the American markets especially in housing.

[@tryleraaron9244]

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[@Kristenshwan]

Even though the stock market looks bearish and market sentiment is low. But he keeps us grounded through his real analysis, the facts in the charts.

[@charles2395]

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[@findingpath8362]

How do I find him?

[@charles2395]

Search his name

[@charles2395]

Fergus waylen

[@denwhitcomb1219]

Regarding debt, why are we transferring a Trillion $ per year to the most wealthy that Rand reports? If true it seems we have gone into debt ($32 Trillion) to put a damper on our critical infrastructure repair needs and long term growth.

[@MultiFrishman]

The need to master technology is a profound an essential message for humanity. It will lead to our demise as a species and poison all life on earth. This podcast is of high quality, subscribing !

[@kishaniramsey5913]

have the loses accumulated by the american semi conductors factories/teach giants?

[@mgriff0309]

Pretty amazing that this guy has the same vocal fry that Ezra does 😂. Anyway, awesome convo.

[@tricialandis1546]

2nd listen, will be more I’m sure. Thanks, this was great.

[@lefthooklansing]

Wolf is a classic Keynesian "boost demand for the greater good experiments" apologist for the hot mess we live in.

[@mangalapalliv]

I find it a little surprising to hear about America's intention of getting manufacturing industry back..... Do they have the population aggregates which can support the labour needed for this industry volume even if it comes back..... ?

[@pininfarinarossa8112]

Where can I hear the Sullivan's speach?

[@mangalapalliv]

The transcript of the lecture is available on the internet to read... I read it and it clearly outlines the 4 big challenges that America is grappling with.... Challenge 1: America’s industrial base had been hollowed out. Challenge 2: Adapting to a new environment defined by geopolitical and security competition, with important economic impacts. Challenge 3: An accelerating climate crisis and the urgent need for a just and efficient energy transition. Challenge 4: Inequality and its damage to democracy.

[@GaryReed-dr6hu]

Host thank you for your work excellent ideas and well composed questions i feel very comfortable saying vocal fry is undignified childish manipulative behavior anywhere but the bedroom

[@FredHosea]

US corporate capitalism, European post-colonial capitalism, Chinese state/party capitalism, and Russian oligarchic capitalism ---- what could POSSIBLY go wrong? The inherent sickness of the disjointed growth imperative as a capitalist foundational principle, without reference to human rights and environmental sustainability, is an institutionalized insanity, with capital being represented by human stooges, mandating short-term gains at long-term expense, and institutionalized externalization, ,minimizing, and denial of externalities as relevant to the markets. Finance, government and military institutions are structured to defend the core tumor of capital growth at all costs -- mandatory lies, denial of science, reason and compassion, unaccountability for massive deaths, and planetary degradation.

[@lindakingsley9486]

Rents are falling?? Tell that to my corporate land lord who takes all my social security raises and more. I am slowly becoming food deprived.

[@nickkacures2304]

We seem to be at an inflection point with GDP and Debt how do we grow enough to service the debt from 35 years of stimulus and neoliberal economics. We also need to move to a zero growth economy to stop climate change catastrophe

[@andrewwoods8153]

There is no mention of wealth transfer to those who do not need it. Neither the actual productivity of China growth . There has to be a slower value and sustainable growth

[@danvee3928]

Super high-level interview

[@TooBadToBeAway1]

So a neoliberal economist argues against state industrial policy. Quel surprise. One should ask Martin Wolff about China's industrial policies after c.1985. How were they successful when the West was dismantling its industrial policies at the same time? How did China become so competitive with a strong state sector while the West was following neoliberal dogma leading to its deindustrialization?

[@qingzhou9983]

You really think US could beat China, which has thousand years of Central State planning tradition, on Industrial Policy? Martin is right. US had a very bad overall record on Industrial policies in the past. and it will likely to fail again this time, meaning cost more than benefit.

[@TooBadToBeAway1]

@@qingzhou9983 You completely Misunderstood my comment. 100%. Please look up ‘neoliberal’ in an economics textbook. And at least try to have some critical reading skills before commenting.

[@qingzhou9983]

@@TooBadToBeAway1 Then please explain why you think I misunderstand you. Assertion alone is useless.

[@TooBadToBeAway1]

@@qingzhou9983 sorry, I retired from university teaching 8 years ago. Please do your own homework.

[@qingzhou9983]

@@TooBadToBeAway1 You are so funny. It is your thought and you don't care to explain or no time to explain. Then why do you posting here? In any case, enjoying your retirement.

[@joaodecarvalho7012]

Commander of the British Empire.

[@gordongielis5141]

I enjoy these podcasts but quick question, is Mr Klien a journalist for the New York Times or a Democrat politician?

[@pjmccall]

Certainly no one noticed a different voice to open the show 😂 Roge Karma sounds uncannily similar to his colleague Ezra Klein. Is it part of the training at VOX??

[@arieltejera8079]

This interview is great, I listened to it carefully. However, it does not mention the long range effects of the comparative enrichment of Asian economies, with respect to the west's. In fact , the manufacturing crisis is already a symptom of this shift of economic weight. So, the US must fight two related fronts: Asian growth and local populism.

[@lindakingsley9486]

The problem of the global connection is that America is so coupled with China the Libertarian rich are moving their money assets out of America and China to safer harbors and we in America especially the retirees who have retirement money in the corporations and the Chinese people will loose all of their money and assets. We both also have to pay higher prices because the same corporate rich are price gouging both countries. The rich did America's housing similar to China's housing. We are about to go after the rich for doing its best to make America a renters nation. In the end; Russia will fall and China is going to do its best to take the north west of Russia for mining assets and the North Pole sea routes. Watch because they will need to pick up and the western Libertarian rich is propping up China to take and be a power house again. They have no care for human life only control. The mind set of the western Libertarian rich (Palace of Versailles mind set) and the Chinese elite rich (Forbidden City mind set) are one in the same. I wish people would see this.

[@josephguo6256]

For few people, world means western world only, not global. the fact that the world is huge. see

[@robotubetwob]

47:05

[@ikeu6433]

I don't know how you could see self sufficiency as untenable. Yeah we will have to trade for raw materials but not much else. The idea of self sufficiency outside of raw materials being a fantasy seems like a line we fed the global south to debt trap them 😂😂

[@btdoe3259]

Take away the power to print money from nothing from the banks! Money is an invention of the free market (e.g the people). It's time to give it back the monetary system to the people. Start saving in Bitcoin. Run a full Bitcoin nod at home. Vote with your money.

[@jjohn3133]

👍😎

[@carlloeber]

The elephant in the room that you didn't mention was Trump and his effect on China..

[@hc8379-f4f]

There is clearly a connection between national security and economic self-sufficiency, but the thing is that this is a feature not only for the US, but for many countries that don't subscribe to the idea of some kind of Chinese hegemony. The US would do better by involving itself in a process of gathering friends into a tighter bond, and sharing markets with those countries. Obviously the EU, Britain, Japan, SK, Aust, NZ, Canada, Mexico, -- but also most of Latin America, some of Africa, and a good portion of SE Asia ex China. If we add up all that population, it's much larger than China's, and younger. If you add GDP, it's easily 3x China's. To go it alone for the US risks alienating many of these countries, with the added danger that many of the enterprises created in the US as a result of the recent stimulus will not be competitive in the long run, solely on the basis of the high wage bill in the US. Some of those investments are much more likely to be successful in a lower wage environment in one of those countries -- without an undue effect on US security -- and a great deal of strengthening US ties to those countries.

[@qingzhou9983]

This is really Funny: in a Real US or clearly West Hegemony even today, you worry about the Non-Existing Chinese Hegemony. By the way, you now should really appreciate the Greatness of Mr Deng. When he opened up China in 1980s, he faced the Real US and West, Soviet is West too from China Perspective, Hegemony. It will help you vey much to compare your over-blown concern of Chinese Hegemony to Deng's concern of US Hegemony and how Deng overcame that!

[@hc8379-f4f]

@@qingzhou9983 Don't use so many capital letters. They distract rather than help make your case. All hegemonic powers are to be distrusted, and China aspires to be, if not the #1, then at least equal to #1. So I will still take the one with (however imperfect) some semblance of reference to popular will in elevating its leaders than the one with a "ruling party" of 100 million running the show for the remaining 1.3 billion. In politics nothing is for sure, of course, but the potential for rule by diktat is obviously greater in the latter. There's the old saying about the devil you know versus the one you don't know...

[@qingzhou9983]

@@hc8379-f4f Well, the current Hegemon, US, has been in war on someone else soil always every year since WW II. Beside US, or maybe you, most people on earth prefer China over US because China had no war for more than 4 decades now. In addition US imposed 2/3 of all sanctions in past 3 decades and on most of the population on earth, including India, China, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, even EU, Japan and South Korea etc.

[@hc8379-f4f]

@@qingzhou9983 The closer a nation is to China, the more they distrust China. There is no mystery about that. When China was last invaded, no country offered more help to China than the United States. No country offered China more investment and technical advancement than the US, once China opened up to the world. The US supported China's accession to the UN and to the WTO (ahead of Russia). There are nearly 300,000 Chinese students studying in the US, and just as many in other Western countries. With all due respect, China got involved in wars too: 1. It intervened in the Korean War in defense of the aggressor state NK. 2. It fought border wars with the USSR. 3. It fought India in another border war. 4. It fought Vietnam over Cambodia (siding with the US on the matter). 5. It's on course to invade Taiwan in a "re-unification" war because it will not accept a popular referendum in Taiwan re unification vs independence. 6. It is militarily seeking to impose control over the entire S. China Sea against neighboring countries who, apparently, have no rights on the matter. As a hegemon-in-the-making, China is like all other past and present hegemons, with its own characteristic advantages and disadvantages. But it's basically a new hegemon that has progressed in a rather benign world environment.

[@qingzhou9983]

@@hc8379-f4f You clearly could not deny the Facts I listed in my previous post, I took it as that Proven my points, especially when you dare not to compare China's wars you listed (all China's border wars) to those US Foreign wars. You also conveniently forgot the fact that every help US gave to China was in US's self-interest, like supporting KMT to fight imperial Japan, support CCP to fight Soviet, open up China for its cheap labor and huge market etc. And US was one of the Imperial Powers that destroyed Qing Dynasty's Capital Beijing and gave China its Century of Humiliation. And now, US is explicitly containing China's legitimate Rise with economic/trade war, scientific/technologic War, diplomatic war, and moving aggressively towards another Ukrainian War in Taiwan. So from the Non-America point of view, you have a lot to Learn.

[@GrantLeeEdwards]

Is it possible to work at NYT and not have extreme vocal fry and deliver every sentence in the tone of a question? Just curious.

[@AnnularFrisson]

Poor poorer, rich richer. Nothing’s being done. The fact that we can’t even stop inequality’s acceleration indicates clearly that our political system doesn’t care one iota to reduce inequality.

[@lyonellaverde3135]

It may be that it cares or doesn't care. But it shows it is not motivated to take the hard steps, the heavy lifting, to address this crisis.

[@gogudelagaze1585]

tbh, that's a very tricky problem. If you simply raise taxes, they'll run to other more favourable countries and you get even less than before. Codifying more rights for workers seems like a more workable approach, and something I think could work really well. Problem is that you run into partisanship issues, and not just at the political level. As long as the US worker will fight tooth and nail against their own interests it's going to be very, very rough imo.

[@lyonellaverde3135]

@@gogudelagaze1585 - if taxes are raised to an unreasonable degree, I agree it incentivizes people to consider departing. But simply raising taxes does not do this. Bill Clinton and the Democrats raised taxes in 1993, and economic growth continued, poverty levels shrank and the Federal Government achieved its first surplus in decades. Why was this policy so successful? Taxes were raised, but not to an extreme degree (They were still below the pre-Reagan levels.). Clinton also cut the overall size of the Federal government, helped by the "peace dividend" after the end of the Cold War. Reasonably raising taxes, along with sensible policy can address the problem of inequality.

[@gogudelagaze1585]

@@lyonellaverde3135 Apologies, I wasn't very clear in my first message - Usually, when people talk about reducing inequality wealth taxes, or taxes that predominantly target the wealthy are some of the main methods that are usually brought up. The wealthy are highly allergic to them, and as we've seen in other places that have raised taxes on the wealthy, they usually prefer to (tax-wise) flee the country, and it often results in lower revenues. I'm not very familiar with Clinton's tax policy, I'll have to read up on that. NPR has an article called "If a Wealth Tax is Such a Good Idea, Why Did Europe Kill Theirs?" Skimming through it, it seems incomplete, but fairly decent at explaining what I wanted to say. I'd really like to see some sort of international collaboration to mitigate tax havens and how easily they are exploited, but I'm not very hopeful on seeing that anytime soon.. I have to say though, I find it super funny that even Clinton's raised taxes were below Reagan's. Reagan, the person most associated with trickle-down economics xD I have no words how depressing that is if true.

[@fennegvdgvd]

So why does the host intentionally lose control of his voice every so often?

[@iankclark]

Vocal fry as an affectation is just unlistenable.

[@watsufi]

Interview Peter Zealand please.

[@incognitotorpedo42]

Zeihan?

[@janklaas6885]

📍1:07:08

[@jamessmithers4456]

it only gets worse from here for Kiev

[@mgb5170]

Why aren't women economists interviewed

[@michall6376]

What you are saying is only possible if you take China’s propaganda at face value without critical thinking. How a China specialist is not able to see what a 5 minute search on KZbin would show him? This is motivated reasoning

[@postscript5549]

Sounds like an interesting commentary, but you're asking for a huge time commitment.

[@jonesybones13]

Peter Zeihan seems much more relevant, timely and comprehensive than this guest, however qualified he is... but fine interview, I guess

[@advocate1563]

First ajd last visit (i wa seearching for Mr Wolf whose intellect I greatly admire). The interviewer is very poor. Essentially a political activist. Not my idea of discussion, but perhaps this podcast is intended more as diatribe than diacourse.

[@richardouvrier3078]

Rojet

[@FredHosea]

Obfuscatory bafflegab.

[@rayraufman7850]

M M . . Ml 😊😅😅😅😅😅