How The Housing Crash Will Happen

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THE 2024 HOUSING MARKET:
Home prices have just recently hit yet another all-time high in November after rising for 10 straight months - more and more Americans are beginning to rush back into the housing market with record down payments - and nearly HALF of those surveyed on Twitter said that they were likely to buy a house in the next 2 years.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT DECLINE IN 2024:
1. LOW AFFORDABILITY
CNN reported that “38.6% of the median household income is required to make the monthly payment on the average home purchase” - and, typically a home is considered “affordable” if the monthly cost is less than 30% of the area’s median income. This, unfortunately, has resulted in 99% of the United States being unaffordable for the average American making $71,000 per year.
2. HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT
Since 1955 - "the U.S. economy has always experienced a recession within two years from every quarter in which inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5%, as they are today.”
3. CHANCE OF A RECESSION
According to Realtor.com, “A recession in 2024 would likely weaken housing demand beyond its current low level, and if it were significant enough, it could stress existing homeowner finances enough to prompt some to sell, reversing the supply-demand balance that we’ve seen in the last few years.”
4. EVERYONE THINKS IT'S A BAD TIME TO BUY A HOME
Only 16% of people believe that now is a good time to purchase a home, which is a record low.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT CONTINUE GOING HIGHER:
1. LOWER INTEREST RATES
Jerome Powell indicated that we’re likely going to see 3 rate cuts in 2023 of 25 basis points each, which would take the federal funds rate down to 4.5%, and likely leave us with mortgage rates leveling off around the 5.5-6.5% range.
2. MORE SELLERS IN 2024
Recent research suggests that the “30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 5.5% is the "magic mortgage rate" that would be enough to push more home buyers to purchase homes.”
3. THE US IS NOT IN A RECESSION
According to Jerome Powell, the economy is gearing up for a Soft Landing in 2024 because inflation is largely under control, GDP is strong, and consumer spending is robust.
4. SEASONALITY COULD BE THE ONLY DROP IN PRICES
Even though most seasonal pricing tends to be a difference of 8-12% off the sales price, some locations, like the Northeast and Great Lakes, lead the nation with a “22.1% variation between summer and winter sales,” which means right now could be a good time to negotiate.
5. HOUSING, LONG TERM, TRENDED HIGHER (SO FAR)
Over the last 100 years, housing prices have steadily increased as new construction constantly lags the growing population.
HOW TO PREPARE:
1. GET A 30 YEAR MORTGAGE
A 30-Year mortgage gives you the flexibility to still make a lower minimum payment and save the extra money if the circumstances require it.
2. GET A FIXED INTEREST RATE
This prevents your payments from suddenly being increased 5-7 years in the future if interest rates are somehow higher than they are today.
3. REFINANCE IF RATES GO DOWN
This allows you to save more money on your monthly payments.
4. AVOID SELLING IFYOU DON’T NEED TO
Ideally, by not selling, you’ll have the time to ride out any fluctuations in price long enough for them to recover and bring you back to profitability.
5. ALWAYS KEEP CASH ON THE SIDELINES - JUST IN CASE
The reality is, anything can come up, at any point, that will end up costing you money.
6. ONLY BUY A HOME YOU CAN COMFORTABLY AFFORD
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*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.

[@GrahamStephan]

Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dF1G8ATARTjWwjhyPoiaus3iCHHbIrZjnWy4JUllvcs/edit?usp=sharing

[@TRUMAN_THE_TRUE_MAN]

Didn’t ask + I’m 100% better than Graham ☠️💀⚡️⚡️😁🔥

[@mr.liquifier8343]

Is a crash supposed to be bad thing or what

[@Lumpia_In_Texas]

There won't be a crash. These clowns have been using this clickbait since 2021.

[@marioremondino9837]

Dude!!! I’m astonished how piss poor your real estate advice/knowledge truly is. SMH🤦‍♂️

[@bhh8005]

​@@mr.liquifier8343 if you are in a selling position it's bad . But if you are buying, it's like black Friday in the property market. The best sale was in 1929 when people could buy properties at a 69 % discount.

[@NicholasBall130]

I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.

[@StacieBMui]

Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.

[@HectorSnipes]

Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.

[@lolitashaniel2342]

could you to recommend this particular manager?

[@HectorSnipes]

Credits goes to " Sonya Lee Mitchell " one of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.

[@lolitashaniel2342]

thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@christopherbuckley7544]

My Dad bought 1/3 Acre lot and built a house on it in 1974 for 40K. His annual salary as a PhD at a local college was 12K. He raised a family and paid the mortgage on a single salary. He sold it in 2008 for 450K. Those days are gone. Everyone is F'KD

[@1993JosephS]

Based on your argument we had the price of housing at 3.5x salary. For great residential neighborhoods you are maybe at 6x salary. How are we “Fk’d”? People want to pay that premium for the socioeconomic benefits. If you don’t want higher quality schools, industry and services you can live somewhere that costs 1x salary.

[@ikhbjhbkm5]

Women didnt work back then, on average. Today they do. If you don't have two incomes you're way below average these days.

[@JESUS.saves.Repent.]

​@@ikhbjhbkm5 yeah and we all see how horrible it is to let the government's public schools raise your children.

[@ryantaylor5297]

@@1993JosephSlmao where can you buy a place at 1x annual salary?? Also he said 2008. That same house is probably over 1M now.

[@BrianPurcell72]

I have a 2.375% on a 20 year mortgage with 18 years left. I'm not touching that with a 100-ft pole. Here's to surviving whatever's coming at us in 2024.

[@jamesmyers3537]

Luck ass

[@PrinceTrox]

I should have been buying a house instead of being in the 7th grade.

[@Captaine_Crunche]

@@PrinceTroxfast reply

[@rbostrom]

Me too. On a 75k mortgage

[@danceswithpaperhands6221]

Damn nice! Bidenomics will sort out the ding dongs.

[@gajxo]

Watching Graham feels like getting messages from an alternate reality where markets crash every two weeks.

[@cross-bit]

Exactly 😂😂😅😅 ... Jst wanted to write smth like... what number of crash this is...😅😅 But one day he will be right ... One day sure 😅😅

[@Tr-mx3qs]

right ! the market needs to crash already. get it over with

[@JonDotExe]

It's a numbers game. He only has to be right once for everyone to be like "zomg he was right!" 😂

[@wolfiecaps_]

😂😂😂😂 like every other scrub predicting crashes all year; everyone and their grandmother predicted major crashes and recessions and of course the herd gets it wrong again

[@rjs578]

@@cross-bit He and Robert Kiyosaki will be right one day.

[@patriciadennis850]

I bought an affordable condo back in 2016, but with rising insurance, HOA fees, and property taxes, its unaffordable. The interest rate is 3.25% but the cost of everything else is rising fast. No one talks about that part.

[@FRMN8R_T4R]

Great points. And exactly why citizens need to get involved LOCALLY to maintain control and influence in their best interests. Run for an HOA board position, attend your local city/county/school district board and commission meetings and SPEAK UP when public comment is opened up. Better yet, run for seats in those orgs. Too much at stake anymore for us to not be involved in our own governance.

[@patriciadennis850]

@@FRMN8R_T4R I am going to run for the HOA's Secretary position in April, this madness has to stop

[@tuck6464]

They are coming for your houses/ property and now your cars, one way or another whether you like it or not. The hard part is determining just who exactly "THEY" are.

[@soolly357]

Never get involved with HOA

[@lisalasers]

this is why i bought a house. no condo for me

[@eaglesfan19029]

Housing market is going to crash cause I'll be closing on a home this friday. You're welcome America!

[@jesse_-]

Congratulations, and it’s not going toncrash

[@petejablowski2123]

Never buy at the top of the market. I wish you well but people like you are the actual problem. If we all just said these houses are overpriced we’re not buying the prices would crash but unfortunately people aren’t financially savvy . My house and rental properties are paid for but I would still like to grow even further but I refuse too in this market

[@brittany292]

​@@petejablowski2123for some of us the mortgage is much cheaper than throwing our money away on renting.....we wanted to wait it out but bought back in June....

[@kevinreinert7393]

@@jesse_-the market has always crashed lol .. and it's more unaffordable now then ever why would it level off. More ppl are losing there homes more then ever in history

[@DLO0622]

Unless you got a unicorn Ninja loan I'm guessing you can afford what you overpaid for

[@Soleya9]

I bought my last home in 2006 for 196k. At the time I was told "Don't worry, you can refinance in a few years with better loans". By 2012 it was worth 60k. I paid on it for 16 years before selling it for what I owed (had to sell when I moved cause rent wasn't even 50% of the mortgage payment). I was upside down on my home for 14 years straight. Refinancing was never possible. It is absolutely possible to buy at the wrong time and have it take decades to financially recover. Side note, there is no shortage of homes. Only shortage of homes for sale. There are currently 15 million vacant homes in the US.

[@Philippinesbound42]

Love to see where these 15 million vacant homes are hiding. Ha

[@kyjahnsmith3685]

That 15 million makes up about 10% of housing but it’s still including vacant rentals and homes being renovated so the percentage of homes that are vacant and not being used is actually lower. There is a housing shortage that can’t be denied.

[@Whatiffitness]

You can, but its unlikely. Im not sure where you lived, but the vast majority of the US recovered by 2015

[@nonexistent5030]

​@@Philippinesbound42they're not hiding. They're in plain site and we're reported kn the census. There's maybe some additional vacant ones hiding that weren't reported. Most of them are rentals competing to find a renter. A few are owned by speculators or someone who has moved out while renovating their home. There's not a shortage of homes There's just a shortage of homes for sale as rising inflation drove higher demand for buying homes instead of renting them. It is now cheaper to rent than own well see how long the trend of rising home prices lasts...

[@eddiemalvin]

What is it worth today?

[@Jayita-Raakhi5446]

AMS300K has all the fundamentals to achieve 100x. Great to see exposure like this. When the community grows and comes together this will fly!

[@theRetainer]

The worst part of this housing market is having to pay top dollar for properties that aren't worth the prices. Houses that aren't worth $100k selling for $450k and so on. It is literally unbearable. IMO, location is truly the key to any real estate investment. If the market falls, location might be able to save people from big losses. Great locations recover faster from downturns than bad ones.

[@michaelhunsinger8351]

"Everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it"

[@danellclark5470]

You need a better understanding of money. The house is worth so much because your dollar is worth so little. It's not that complicated really.

[@parkour267]

Its really sad to see.

[@WrittenInFilm]

If they really are "worth $100k" and not $450k, then why don't you just go build a house for $100k since it's worth that to build it right? Lol

[@ruckus1713]

Almost everything is overpriced, houses aren't remotely the worst culprit but are the most noticeable since a 10% markup may mean tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars vs an extra dollar on grocery items.

[@ZachCardella-SpokaneRealEstate]

I really appreciate all the KZbin financial gurus who have accurately predicted all 36 housing market crashes that have happened in the last six months. I know it takes a lot of work to make those sad face/lighting strike/house on fire/fed chairman’s laser eyes/ chart pointing down with no context thumbnails. Keep up the good and honest work.

[@sakurauchiha03]

........

[@seanoconnor8138]

you probably would have been thankful if they made 36 videos in 2005. and that doesn't mean they were predicting 36 crashes, just one. and it happened. and it will happen again.

[@ZachCardella-SpokaneRealEstate]

@@seanoconnor8138 I wouldn’t have seen any of this doom and gloom stuff in 2005 because there wasn’t a perverse incentive algorithm that rewards content creators for posting clickbait thumbnails and headlines that prey on concerned people. Negative emotions are addictive and content creators use sensationalism to drive clicks and make ad revenue off of decent hard working people like yourself who only want to be informed. Believe it or not, people who talk positively and help people navigate the market realistically don’t get put in to your suggestions at the rate of all the doom sayers. I’ll tell you what’s going to happen this year: rates will go down, average prices will drop a little each month, inventory will loosen up in the spring, and people who want to buy their first home will have a happy election when the candidates are falling all over themselves to say they will be the one to improve the affordability of housing which will increase public confidence. What there won’t be is a “collapse”.

[@user-oy5wk6sg5f]

Dude you totally nailed it with this comment. I'm going to steal it. Lol

[@foto21]

Keep believing in the corrupt US markets.

[@veronicavids]

Insurance escrow and HOA fees are also going up for people who own right now. I wish we could go back to having all housing costs being only 25% of our income

[@Coffeendonuts]

If you bought a house 20 years ago your payment would have stayed the same. As for insurance I paid 800$ a year when I bought my first property. Insurance is now 2000$ not terrible for 20 years.

[@fofal]

We all want that and the government who works for US has to do it's job and work on it to make it happen.

[@johng1738]

Yeah, I can’t imagine how much easier the older folks had it.

[@mattwilsonracing388]

Asking vs Selling prices are different metrics. The only thing selling in my area (NW Arkansas) are

[@AUniqueHandleName444]

"House prices have to come down to avoid a crash" -- isn't that exactly what a crash is? That said, I just don't see why people would be dropping prices on homes below where they are now. Locally, it costs about $200/sqft to build. Most older houses are selling from 225-250/sqft, which is roughly what it costs to build your own house. Ie, the market price of the house just isn't very different from the cost to build. Which means that people who are selling these homes are only going to have the option of moving somewhere smaller...so...why would they sell?

[@Kumkum-Saranya318]

Love the AMS300K content. I think this project is just as essential as HBAR and they both will be great movers

[@Pragya-Prita925]

You are one of the most sophisticated and brilliant KZbinr/content creator I watch, and 1million percent the very best in finance. I appreciate all of your content thank you for AMS380H much love from Chicago

[@widehotep9257]

That's why I use Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX exchange. Because Graham said I should.

[@HBatch]

Recently sold our house and got an all cash offer after being on the market for 36 hours from a first-time homebuyer. We relocated for my job and decided to rent instead of buying so we could take our time finding a home. Well, every time we schedule a showing, the house goes from for sale to pending (not even contingent) after only being on the market for hours. Even though we're off season (especially being in the Midwest), houses are going quickly still.

[@getinthespace7715]

Our problem is low inventory. We were looking but gave up and locked down a rental. I'll buy property and build my own house rather than risk getting massively upside-down in a high interest loan on a run down crap hole listed at an astronomical price. The only way prices come down is if inventory skyrockets AND interest rates stay high due to a massive number of foreclosures and a deep recession.

[@Soorat-Poonam8255]

All of them are really nice picks. But the potential of project that elegantly combine blockchain and AI is Amazons AMS380H and should not be overlooked, I guess. Among them, this truly tackle real-world problems and have vibrant ecosystems, like Aiwork.

[@carquestionsanswered]

Good video! I'm so ready for real estate prices to drop...

[@CryztalSeth]

Love your work, Graham. Keep it coming!

[@SoulSovereignty]

This video overlooks the fact that these increasing housing valuations is not an indication of "rising asset prices", but instead merely the consequence of monetary inflation associated with ALL purchases. For decades U.S. money printing didn't dramatically impact inflation, as long as "trade expansion" continued to grow with China. Then, at least partly due to COVID and partly due to China's growing hostility, that "trade expansion" with China slowed down. That slow-down, coupled with insane "COVID relief" checks...kicked off what will easily be a decade of sawtooth inflation (just like the 70's). AS A CONSEQUENCE of all this, we're not going to see housing "crash" the way we did in 2009+...precisely because, as already stated, the price of everything will go up regardless of other circumstances.

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

High inflation is terrible, but we need to avoid mass deflation too. Another Great Recession would be devastating.

[@LOFIchillyboy]

THIS

[@TexasRedneck]

We are about to turn our construction loan into a mortgage and we are gonna do a 5yr ARM. Would take 1 1/2 years to get our money back out of getting the points down. I think the interest rates will come down enough in that time to then refinance and then we can do a 30yr loan

[@tylerpeck8047]

Wrong thanks for coming out… nothing ever goes up forever and always has a drop in valuations. Furthermore wages which have not kept up with inflations means less buying power. Finally people are running out of money, even NINJA loans wouldn’t save this.

[@corwaincyrus5]

This video does not look at or overlook anything. It's just empty calories, nothing but clickbait. I wish youtube would do something about this stuff. As much as everyone hates Elon Musk, at least he is TRYING on X with the whole community notes thing. KZbin is actively rewarding scammers here.

[@central3425]

DOOM tubers have been calling a crash for YEARS. STILL WAITING!!!!

[@infidelheretic923]

They say it again and again until the day they get vindicated. Hoping people ignore or forget all the times they got it wrong.

[@jmb9701]

Here's a few major expenses I had last year on my house - which ill add, is a year my wife was off on maternity so one income: Panel upgrade- $3500 New furnace (heat pump) and AC - $13500 (lucky timing got me $7500 back from govt) Water heater - $2500 Luckily we spend less than 20% of our income on our housing costs (we live in Toronto) so we had a large sum sitting around for just these issues. Don't assume the mortgage is the only payment you'll make, you WILL quickly find yourself in real trouble just to keep your house functional. We make around 13k a month after tax, drive cheap cars and we aren't buying an upgrade (~5k month mortgage) because its so expensive. I wouldn't listen to anyone telling you to buy right now unless you NEED a place and not WANT a place...

[@DanKohan]

yeah, not going overboard and buying something you can comfortably afford is super smart advice. Keep sharing man!

[@FinancialFinesse00]

Grant great video as usual,I hope if there is a crash it will be short lived thanks for bringing us this valuble content ahead of the masses you are one of the main reasons I started my channel because I learned so much from you.

[@Saeeda-Vinata787]

I hope you are right about AMS380H ? Thanks for the highly educational video. Keep up the good work -

[@lakelvp]

Of course there won't be a crash. The average house in la is only $1.2M and can be yours for less than $10k/month. Millions will go buy them any minute now. Unemployment will go to zero! Interest rates will go negative. No problem at all (except your dollar will be tied to the Argentine peso). No crash at all. This time is different. This place is different. Everyone is above average! No crash here! What's a crash?

[@sandy949]

Appreciate you and all of the hard work you put into your videos!

[@user-Capitalist701]

Thanks for the video! It was interesting to look see the increase in house prices over the last ten years.

[@littleky]

Can you do a video on condo,home, and car insurance issues in CA and FL?! Prices are insane and what is going on in CA.

[@richhands5269]

My three favorite channels: Graham Stephan, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥

[@sixwingproductions]

hedge funds bought up all the housing and jacked up the rates to needing 60k a year for a one bedroom apartment when most jobs only pay 35-40k a year. greed on the part of hedge funds and investment bankers has been the cause of just about every crash.

[@jameslocklear5298]

Dude median household income is almost 68k a year lmao they should be fine lol hedge funds KNOW how much you can pay for rent for sure 😂😂😂

[@sixwingproductions]

​@@jameslocklear5298 and most of those are two income house holds. i said jobs pay not household income. not to mention the longterm negative economic and societal by kids in dual income households being raised by daycare and school. niether of which teach basic life skills or morals.

[@luisvilla799]

Don’t forget real estate agents don’t help either they are a hair above car salesman

[@j10001]

10:14 Graham, can you please make sure each axis is labeled on the charts you insert? Bonus points if you can include a source. I love your videos, but once in a while we get a chart like this one that I find difficult to make use or interpret correctly of without better labeling.

[@FinancialTutor]

Thanks for the video Graham! I am going to try to purchase another invest property in 2024 and every couple years after to dollar average with my portfolio.

[@10MillzRecords]

I pray all who read this have a safe & happy new year!

[@ant5361]

Happy Holidays, Graham! I appreciate the work you put into your content. Wishing you continued success in the new year.

[@kirkaderkderk]

Hey Graham! New subscriber here. Love seeing the real estate data plotted to show the cyclical trends. Do you have any recommendations for databases? Much appreciated!

[@savingyourselffromwallstre690]

Home prices relative to incomes are too high. That is the key metric, and it always corrects...always.

[@msbgone]

The problem I have is housing value keeps going up which keeps raising the property tax which turns into a 2nd mortgage...... thanks for the good advice!

[@dennycars5402]

Your right!! In Texas the state is inflating values to take every dollar of property tax. It’s a lose lose situation for a lot of ppl. 😢

[@BRIGGS2710]

property tax is a curse from satan

[@racerx6]

Exactly right. There are cheaply built tract homes in Los Angeles county that have property taxes of $12,000 a year!! An extra $1000 a month. Ridiculous.

[@atdepaulis]

I keep trying to tell people that! I plan on living in my house till I die so I don’t care if it goes up in value right now… it’s annoying because just since 2020 my mortgage has increased over $500 due to property tax… ugh

[@3nrike13]

THIS right here is my problem too, yet it seems that the VAST majority of people don’t consider high home prices as it relates to property tax. For me I’m not afraid of the interest rates, those always vary. But locking in on a house with high home price just to be stuck with high yearly property taxes that’ll stay even after paying off the mortgage is just a huge no no for me.

[@cclark2021]

I bought a home in 2006, it crashed yo about half, by 2015 it was 30k over what i bought it for. Today, its way more..... I moved out of state for a new job and have continued to rent it out. At one point i was eating 100$ a month to it, now the rent is alot more...

[@olivernova4754]

Being homeless and trying to find a way gets really really hard. But hopefully I get to make things happen soon.

[@Mactakun]

If true, brother you need to stop watching KZbin immediately and get a job and a bunch of roommates.

[@EthyEth]

Even homeless people have down time Mac..@@Mactakun

[@PerceyIchorre]

good luck bro XD in the same boat for now, still trying to find a job again

[@stkbloc9717]

Get your cdl you will never be homeless again

[@gavinmcallister]

Amazing information as always! Thank you!

[@GrahamStephan]

Any time!

[@LilView]

Same information as always and years later no crash yet

[@Anju-Asha310]

between the two, I think I would still support Amazons AMS300K : technically speaking, years ahead of the competitors,Brand power, easy development, flexible with source languages, quick tx...

[@Langstonnn]

Between the two what???? Stfu lol

[@von...]

@@Langstonnn gram puts the bare minimum effort into his channel, so he doesn't clean up the comment section at all (bc he's too busy working on his next random fear mongering video to put effort into his back catalog)

[@maloxi1472]

@@von... This is supposed to be KZbin's job, Bucko

[@von...]

@@maloxi1472 they've proven time & time again they wont, & dont do a good job at this. All the KZbin creators that have my respect do some bare minimum to protect the portion of their fan-base who isn't intelligent enough to make the distinction themselves. For example, Gram could just make AMS300K a banned term & instantly this 30+ account bot farm would be thwarted - this would take approx. 15 seconds of effort. But keep coping & protecting Gram, Bucko.

[@Rdsxfn]

Scammers

[@EDDYCESPEDES34]

Awesome video! Very informative!

[@foobarFR]

I don't understand why some financial youtubers diss your channel. Your videos are great entry points into macroeconomic themes.

[@BetterManufacturing]

Yeeees! Thanks for the videos!

[@GrahamStephan]

Glad you like them!

[@boondoggle4820]

I’ve actually bought Hero bread from Sprouts and I totally agree with Graham’s assessment.

[@Jobiee94]

I've been watching your channel for a while now and just realized I wasn't subscribed! Just subbed, happy holidays!

[@ExternalHDD-Reviews]

everything is always good for graham 😁

[@musakphil0305]

I'm hoping to buy a house before my 60th birthday. 🤞🏼 I have 23 years to save a 20% down payment. By that time it should only be around $600,000! 🤮

[@thefedhatesu9246]

Fha loan

[@nrm3247]

Lol your down payment is gonna be $600k

[@musakphil0305]

@@nrm3247 In 23 years. At this rate. Maybe. 🤷🏼

[@AshleyRDB]

Let's not forget the property tax hike. Just check my bill. In a year, mine went up $617. And no, I didn't build anything new on my property.

[@youknowwithMartyKauffman]

Great video, Graham

[@Pavani-Sudhira44010]

OMG AMS300K !!! Dude seriously what a awesome video can appreciate how much work went into this quality quality quality much love from Australia

[@robertmillar9279]

I enjoy your knowledgeable insights that you share so freely. And I like your occasional inserts of humor. Keep up the excellent work! Thank-you!

[@10Tendie]

You are partially right. There is a lot of cash on the sideline but you are talking about people in the top brackets only. Over 60% of the population are living pay check to paycheck. Credit card debt is through the roof. Most potential buyers don’t have the down money to buy a house at this point. To the extent rates come down only those in the top brackets will be able to buy, furthering the gap between upper class and middle class. The system will break and we will become a nation of renters. It won’t recover the way you think it might.

[@DoomFinger511]

Currently, the renting bubble has burst. There is an over-saturation of rentals and many places are offering no down payments or free months of rent to get people to rent. This is a result of so many people buying properties with the intent to rent them out, along with house flippers now unable to sell and converting to rentals to cover their costs. Eventually, those leftover rentals will go up for sale when more buyers return to the market.

[@AmateurClimber]

Awesome video!

[@Acefishy]

Happy holidays and new year Graham

[@djcardwell]

once everyone wants to sell their homes and realize that nobody can afford them prices will plummet

[@geraldbennett7035]

Housing set aside for "affordable" units! Taxes and fees on home construction. In Colorado, it has become almost a $300K in combined water fees, permits, street and infrastructure fees, for a single family home. Now you know why its impossible to buy a new, modestly prices home. The lot and construction materials are the smaller costs! The gov is making more money than the developers! Progressivism sucks

[@Slamsa]

love it! keep up

[@NormaGeli]

Omg I want that bread now!

[@levibarker7862]

I really enjoy your channel! Could you do an episode on the top financial tips to teach your children from an early age? (Things you wish you had known growing up)

[@sachsuccess]

This!! I created a few videos about this topic too but would love to see what Graham has to say too

[@MiaogisTeas]

The thing that has stopped me is the rate: I have enough saved to put down 50% on an OK home, or 10% on a really nice property with land, but because the rate is too high I would either end up paying for the house two times over (at least), or they won't accept my application because I apparently don't earn enough! 😅😅 It's absolutely insane and I'm lucky I can support my whole family renting (even though the rent payment is higher than what the mortgage would be) 🥴🥴

[@DoomFinger511]

Why don't you just put 20% down on a regular home and then ride it out for a couple of years until rates go down and then refinance?

[@jasondude7566]

Graham! I'm still waiting! How will the housing crash happen?

[@LFPAnimations]

Real estate is at an unsustainable level right now as young people are priced out of their future. I honestly want a crash. The idea of renting forever is depressing.

[@user-bk7jp1qb1b]

That is why I went off grid. A home in clean fresh air surrounded by nature and no development that just creates depravity and corruption and endless problems.

[@soneares9172]

I'm seeing several new home construction sites in my area, and they seem to be going strong. Home buyers are "limited" to new construction homes because existing homeowners are waiting for interest rates to drop before selling and upgrading. The winners are the home builders because they're able to sell at the peak prices with less competition from home existing sales.

[@CompetitionSportsNetwork]

Means nothing without a pool of buyers! Buyers right now are backing out of deals faster than ever so you have that to deal with.

[@ItBetterBeFast]

And building absolute garbage quality houses

[@1848432]

Nothing makes sense,most people are maxed out on credit and have almost no money but the stock prices and prices of homes keep going up 😮

[@Godismiracles18]

Then get a loan and put it in stocks ! Or rent your house out ! Warning Educational purposes only , not financial advice , 😊

[@ThatBoyKu]

Happy holidays 💪🏾💯🔥

[@Drew_Cast]

Can’t believe you still have the same energy going on man great video

[@salemthorup9536]

We're only likely to buy a house in the next two years care we're counting on a real estate crash. If houses don't get VERY affordable in the next 12-18 months, we might head out of country. It's so lame that house prices have been able to rise as high and for as long as they have. It's gross and messed up. We both work full time, take OT when we can and it's so hard to get to anywhere close to affording buying a house.

[@austingreen1274]

Preach. 👏 This market is nonsense.

[@JustReckles5]

I hear you.. homes have seen a slight decline in my area, and I'm taking advantage, although it'll be very difficult considering I'm single. I'll probably start my side hustle back up once I finish some renovations

[@TheDantor62]

I'm thinking of taking my 401k because at this rate if I don't get a house then I'll never get one wtf just waiting to finish paying off my car

[@baahbyjoe4850]

You’ll pay US tax when you leave just so you know. Unless you revoke your citizenship.

[@TheDantor62]

@@baahbyjoe4850 that don't make no sense why would the money be taxed twice?

[@sammahar9054]

As someone who refinanced at the very lowest and used points on the mortgage, I tell my wife she can bury me in the back yard.

[@charleshocqii4301]

You ain’t gonna have a wife bud

[@levicorcio2915]

Merry Christmas! 🎄🎁

[@jonathanlopez5804]

Love you graham 🎉

[@WorldAccordingToBriggs]

Have you seen that Axios chart about housing shortage? Kinda scary.

[@nfuenmayor]

Why aren’t we building more houses then? China has entire cities just empty, maybe it’s time the US goes into building mode.

[@GrahamStephan]

They gotta build more!

[@crypto_que]

Briggs there are tremendous housing gluts across major metro areas. Real Estate Mindset has been covering this boots on the ground for over a year now. Builders have inflated the housing market. They've got more units then they can sell. They built so many lots of master plan communities haven't even been finished. Please look this up for yourself.

[@aznsinner73]

​@@nfuenmayor builders also aren't listing all their existing inventory on the MLS, so there's more inventory then there actually is. They want to make you believe there still a bad shortage to keep prices up.

[@meangreen320]

⁠@@nfuenmayorthe buildings China build are garbage and are built to artificially pump their gdp numbers . Those very same buildings are not safe for any type of use so they rot or are demolished. And space is a finite resource and not all areas are worth building on.

[@rycar8774]

Housing market crash is absolutely coming.

[@lukaserlichson-deliz368]

Happy Holidays!

[@kvonnegut2858]

hopefully!

[@shorelinemafiaiglives9750]

I just got to where I could afford a house. I could possibly still buy even with the high interest rates. But because of a combination of my current work/living situation and current rates, I’ll be waiting to look at buying until late 2024

[@kah7874NH]

I locked in at 2.75% and knocked a couple years off the term. I’m not going anywhere. Just going to baton down the hatches and hope for the best.

[@NateBeard]

Can you make a new video on CDO's and their effect on the market?

[@amyyoshikawa7698]

Hi Graham sure like to see economy get better. Too many housing crisis👍

[@hardyfinancialcoaching]

You provide great content and advice. The only crisis I can see happening short term is if rates decline sharply next year. Inventory is still ridiculously low. Buyers will be coming out of the woodwork and inventory will never get a chance to rebound repeating the chaos of 2021/2022 where it was like the Wild West trying to buy a home. As a realtor I hope that doesn’t happen again.

[@PatamaGomutbutra]

What will cause FED reduce rate too fast - to make hyperinflation and overall economy collapse?

[@hardyfinancialcoaching]

I don't believe they would intentionally collapse the economy. They backed themselves into a corner by raising rates to slow inflation. The fed ultimately lowers rates to give a boost to the economy when things slow down too much.@@PatamaGomutbutra

[@nrm3247]

Lending is still tight and they’re not going to lower the quals even if rates come down. Banks are going to be very selective moving forward with lending.

[@shreddingdeserts]

Yeah I see rates coming down and housing going back up. At least in Vegas because there’s still a ton of demand and not a lot of inventory.

[@DoomFinger511]

Actually, it could be beneficial. If rates go down it's true all these buyers will come out, but it also means all the potential sellers will finally be willing to sell as they can get a new low-rate mortgage to purchase their next property. The current high mortgage rate doesn't just stop first-time home buyers from purchasing, it also prevents home owners from selling as they don't want to get stuck with a higher payment for a cheaper property if they plan to downsize.

[@Bobbyjoe4511]

I don't trust this guy...

[@jonc2276]

When it does if the prices are low on both stocks and real estate I’ll try to position myself to have the best outcome in dividends and a paid for home. Possibly some other real estate to have to flip when the economy returns to normal with real estate climbing more than what I paid for

[@mattanderson6672]

Thanks G

[@josephharty5048]

Could you do a video on first time home buyers in this market? Like if you were in that place what would the steps you take, what would your thoughts be in that situation. I am also curious what a first time home buyer loan is hahaha

[@alexchavez3383]

Right now with the high interest rates, you'd end up paying about a million dollars for a 550k house. Right now, it's cheaper to rent. "But at least I'd own something with a mortgage." Yeah, you'd pay $1 million to own a 550k house 🤷‍♂️

[@toulee3551]

When in the past have home prices doubbled in 2-3 years? You have a hell of a way to fall if anything moves downwards.

[@genx7006]

This is why if you have a home, sell now. You will never have another good deal like this. If you wait, your property will be worthless.

[@frankreyes4]

Über useful. Danke

[@MetalDetectingWithDustin]

Great video 😎💯

[@alxridepov]

Seriously, all these predictions you've done, none of them came true, so it's more of a click-bait at this point than anything else.

[@Miggy2j]

All he does is clickbait and it's been like that for years

[@lacimarsh8489]

Graham, I follow your advice and you have helped me through the last 2-3 years to become better with finances. Me and some friends are thinking of starting an LLC and I was wondering if you could make a video on LLC vs corporation / s-corp. You have a way with explaining things that makes it easier to understand. Thanks!!!!

[@koreyshaffer]

Thank you for always staying on top of the content! Helped me immensely over the years. Is there an email I can reach out to you for business opportunities or even send fan mail? I want to return the favor!

[@weerobot]

About Time..

[@Rosicrisp]

Y’all gotta destroy the 👍 button. This man puts in the work 👏 👏👏

[@hellerhighlights]

If I had a dollar for every headline by Graham about the housing market crashing, I’d have a down payment for a house.

[@Xrprain]

Great Content per usual Graham but side note, where did you get the shirt from?

[@jeffrounsville4961]

Great video

[@psnerd630]

No more crashes. Black Rock is buying everything and everyone will rent from now on 😢

[@GrahamStephan]

Hmmm

[@HH-le1vi]

Blackrock isn't really buying that much. What you're thinking of is Blackstone.

[@BarbaraBrown21103]

I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Victoria Wiezorek focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk , profit, and the code or the actual decision -making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch.

[@StephenOlford2]

Wow. I'm shocked that you just mentioned and recommended Victoria Wiezorek. I thought I was the only one trading with her.

[@BarbaraBrown21103]

she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.

[@BarbaraBrown21103]

@WIEZOREK105 💯 ..that's it

[@joaocdestro]

great content