How to Survive in the New Economic & Financial Order | Russell Napier

In Episode 243 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and financial historian Russell Napier. Russel was on the podcast a year ago for a conversation about his book on the Asian Financial Crisis and “The Birth of the Age of Debt.” Today’s episode picks up where that conversation left off, building on the foundations of the post-Bretton Woods system of flexible exchange rates and dollar hegemony to speculate on what comes next-on what the new order that is now being born will look like, how it will operate, and what its implications will be for economies, industries, portfolios, and the role of the dollar in the new, international monetary system.
It’s a conversation about inflation, war, and how to position oneself for a new world where old assumptions about monetary policy, risk-taking, and the power and influence of governments to shape economic opportunities will need to be radically rethought. Understanding who the winners and losers of this new economic and political order will be, as well as the asset classes, industries, and companies that will benefit from it is an imperative for investors. This conversation is meant to help you develop the mindset and strategies that you will need to navigate this new world.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
Episode Recorded on 04/07/2022

[@sheevamatimbas4300]

There are 4 people I listen to every word they say carefully, that's Russell, Lacy, Zoltan and my favourite Richard Werner. Great podcast 👍

[@KingMarkLuther]

Love listening to his interviews My main concern is how to survive all of these financial and political crises, especially in light of the US political power struggle.

[@CarsonGreg]

I agree that hiring a portfolio coach is a smart move and that in this case, patience is your best friend. I make a lot of investments and cannot afford to take the risk of doing it alone. Instead, since the rona outbreak began in late 2019, my portfolio has been maintained by a qualified advisor. I only need about $86k more to reach my three million dollar ROI goal.

[@NasaHataoka-bc8jh]

@@CarsonGreg Magnificent! Could you please provide additional information about the coach who mentors you? might save me a lot of money

[@CarsonGreg]

@@NasaHataoka-bc8jh It's amusing that you brought that up because I completely understand. Look up Ruth Loralann Brennan; she got a lot of publicity in 2020. I'm not sure if I can say this. My business is also managed by her.

[@roc7880]

i discover Mr Napier a few days ago, and I like that he is an economist who develops models to explain reality not fits reality to a theoretical model.

[@edwardk4198]

I'm here 2 years late to the podcast but Napier was the first to call for inflation well prior to this. Inflation is certainly evident if not embedded as of this writing. How financial repression will manifest is difficult to discern but the growing debt will mean some form of repression. is on the doorstep.

[@edubmf]

I'm 5 minutes into this and about to listen to it all but I cannot wait until the end to say this: I love this guy Napier, such an interesting guy. Another great guest Dmitri.

[@hrb250]

I've never watched a cast, with so many ads. My gosh, is this the podcast or google. It's like every 7 minutes. Insane.

[@ilikethiskindatube]

24:58 - 26:44 Possible financial repression measures done in the past decades. 30:20 - 35:45 Steering credit to where the state thinks is more important. 38:10 - 39:45 Assets vulnerable to government manipulation.

[@IndustryOfMagic]

Bravo Dimitri! Well done on this insightful podcast, makes me proud.

[@alanmrsic893]

Great stuff, thanks again!

[@vincentmurphy9252]

What’s up Demetri !!! Looong time but driving Boston to Dallas to LA will catch up On Lots of your podcast brother

[@amandeepsangha2308]

Great work Russell and Dimitri. 23-34

[@samikhatib2158]

You really are a great pod dmitri

[@schumzy]

Will start watching the on shoring of industry more closely in the US. Double check how those factories suddenly can be affordable now. I = S, it's really a simple equation. Also, I really do hope PE gets screwed left right and center. Checking those blackrock options.

[@matthewmorgan7106]

Great interview

[@Ar-rb8kv]

Russell #1

[@ilirsvenfrancous9011]

Russell sounds like the business Liam Neeson

[@michaelfried3123]

sounds more like a socialist if you ask me...he sure loves to quote many of them.

[@alexbrint3798]

I have a very particular set of spreadsheets

[@danielsolodov4222]

And to think that not so long ago Russia was laughed at due to the implementation of strong capital controls... Sanctions are certainly a huge part of out, but I also think that the other part is actually accounting for the inevitable changes to the global economical system.

[@SunRays996]

Great work! Deep insights!

[@hwliebenberg5487]

Sounds like the last 30 years of South Africa. The whole complete story and narrative. Same rationalization. But unfortunately the end result is a miss-allocation of capital for 30 years, and then a repressed economy that also ends in social strife.

[@Magickmoon]

363 banking..... Bankers gathered deposits at 3 percent, lent them at 6 percent, and were on the golf course by 3 o'clock in the afternoon.

[@cooldudecs]

This man is highly intelligent. The small inflation we had was already causing political issues… We just need to tell the American people things will be hard but we need to inflate the debt away 🤣. I’m not sure how you politically say that. Blame it on Putin etc…

[@michaelfried3123]

Fun fact: every D and R since FDR has spent more than the treasury has taken in adding to our debt and causing inflation. Another fun fact: In the past 6 years that debt has nearly doubled, and 4 of those years were under an R president with a complicit R Congress. Imagine that...

[@alexbrint3798]

US gov't is inflating away our student debt...

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

@@michaelfried3123 which those Rs at least had the excuse of Covid to justify such spending. Now we have a D coming in and spending big after Covid is over.

[@michaelfried3123]

@@chickenfishhybrid44 none of what you said just made any sense. The R's spent all that money giving tax breaks to wealthy people.

[@kreek22]

@@michaelfried3123 Nonsense.

[@krzysztofflis1847]

❤ hero

[@bbbkkk3034]

Cant they just cancel the debt and write it off? no need for inflation to inflate away the debt or austerity. Theres technically no "default" if you treat the debt as if it never existed in the first place....I wonder what would be the consequence if that happened. Has this ever been tried in recent modern history before?

[@timzes]

Youre funny, I love it, you and I dont come from this planet, its simple really, you lend your friend a dollar and he wont pay you back so you write it off, next time he wants a dollar tell him to fuck off! 🙂

[@ilikethiskindatube]

Why don't you try going bankrupt, and then imagine the same thing but on a national scale for a country that spends more than it earns every year.

[@ilikethiskindatube]

Some countries that have gone bankrupt in the past: Greece (2015) Russia (1918) Iceland (2008) Germany (1923) Mexico (1994) Denmark (1813) Argentina (2001) Thailand (1997)

[@barboglesby2162]

Is China going to cancel out the trillions the USA owes them, or are they more likely to come collect by force what our politicians borrowed and is rightfully owed China? Mabe you believe China is a benevolent lender?

[@araison771]

Creditors want the money back from government. But where is it coming from? They could print enough and pay off the debt. But what will happen to their currency?

[@nbme-answers]

2:53

[@edubmf]

I wonder if govt directed credit might lead to that period of growth. Japan had a govt directed econ and had a lot of growth. Neoliberal rentier capitalism totally failed to allocate credit in a productive fashion. Hard to imagine that the state would do worse than the current high house prices, no jobs, etc.

[@kreek22]

When someone's reach exceeds his grasp, his generalizations transform into over-generalizations. Try again.

[@nkristianschmidt]

move to more conservative states; Kazakhstan; Estonia; UAE, Singapore, Thailand. Get out.

[@MarshallTheArtist]

First meaningful inflation in thirty years? Sounds like you've been out of touch for thirty years.

[@vmurt]

What do u mean?

[@davidreisinger4927]

We haven’t seen anything in the last 30 years like we are about to see. This will be the kind of inflation that says, “Hold my beer.”

[@edubmf]

God dammit why merge rentier and saver? Savers can get a return on productive activity or can appropriate on non-productive activity. The latter are rentiers. Tax rentiers and growth will return!