Trading Reversals, Pivots and Volume: How to see the 'turn'

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Live Traders

Live Traders

Күн бұрын

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#Trading #Stocks #Money
Understanding when and where a stock might change direction is a very important par of trading success. This video will show you what to look for to determine if a stock is about to pivot.
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@DIYerGirl
@DIYerGirl Жыл бұрын
I'm taking in your treasure trove of videos from the recent years, and they're invaluable. You must have a teacher's heart to give so much to our trading community. Thank you!
@elypelowski5670
@elypelowski5670 3 жыл бұрын
I have decided to change your name to Saint Jared. The gems of information you provide to this community are absolutely priceless. There is no other channel on KZbin that provides this type of non-bullshit information. You cut to the core of what trading really is about. I really appreciate all your hard work and effort you put into teaching. You are truly a blessed soul. A sincere Thank You !!!
@restassuredworship
@restassuredworship 3 жыл бұрын
Yes I am agreeing with you on that blessing! This is such great stuff. Jared, God bless your soul.
@PaulWeymouth
@PaulWeymouth 3 жыл бұрын
This was my favorite lecture of yours so far. So much information in this explained in a simple real-world way. I learned that I need to read a stock like a book, left to right, and stop skipping to the current chapter without reading the chapters before.
@fishrrelaxing9361
@fishrrelaxing9361 3 жыл бұрын
I think he’s actually saying read it right to left tbh.. find it left to right.. then go back left to verify your reads.. I’m very guilty if this.. I may look back a few weeks or few months when I should be looking back further at times.. I’ve been missing a lot of doubles this way..
@michaelhanson7126
@michaelhanson7126 2 жыл бұрын
the volume is the key thank you!!!!! 39.40
@michaelhanson7126
@michaelhanson7126 2 жыл бұрын
i wouldn;t take the trade confussing chart for me
@allenknicely2720
@allenknicely2720 3 жыл бұрын
I'm going to keep watching your lectures over and over and over again until one day.....i am as awesome as you. Thanks for your vids. They are helping me grow. Small risk. Learn, learn, learn. The future is bright.
@EscoJ215
@EscoJ215 2 жыл бұрын
Dude. At minute mark 37:50, this was the perfect visualization of supply & demand trading! I've sat through hours and hours of supply and demand trading, and this part of your video just brought all of those hours into something that makes sense. I hope folks were staring at this chart until the image is burned into their memory.
@charlesz31415
@charlesz31415 3 жыл бұрын
This whole video is amazing, but the part about letting the chart speak to you and not adding your subjectivity totally resonated with me. I do that too much.
@musicman59753398
@musicman59753398 3 жыл бұрын
I find myself asking "what is the chart saying to me?"
@Dxila
@Dxila 3 жыл бұрын
You're the freakin' man, Jared! Your videos have saved me from being featured on 'When will the Insanity Stop'. Lol! Thanks for the time you take to teach us.
@trickdaddyaz03
@trickdaddyaz03 3 жыл бұрын
I've been studying your reversal lectures for a while now and saw a pretty clean one recently on the AAPL daily chart. Had a clean downtrend then broke out retraced 50% on the higher pivot, equal low on the lower pivot consolidated then doji bar then rip. Can't believe I missed it (would have been a great entry) with all of the studying I do on this pattern. It really is harder to catch when you don't know the future but it was a beauty, still going strong too. Thanks!
@doog6476
@doog6476 Жыл бұрын
Jared, thanks for producing these videos they are gold. please dont stop making them. best videos on youtube.
@magicman_metal_fab
@magicman_metal_fab 3 жыл бұрын
The coolest thing about all this is I taught myself about retracements. I lost my fair share in the stock market. That was my school. I had NO choice but to learn. I’m no where near done learning but I can tell you with confidence I will definitely become a successful trader. Nobody was over my shoulder watching me. I actually love sell offs into reversals. Lots of money to be made. It’s a rinse and repeat using the 80/20 rule. 😊
@TheStargirl0412
@TheStargirl0412 3 жыл бұрын
Hey, love the username! What is the 80/20 rule please?
@magicman_metal_fab
@magicman_metal_fab 3 жыл бұрын
80% of the time it works. 20% of the time it doesn’t. It has nothing to do with the PDT rule. Market psychology
@RawNoLimits
@RawNoLimits 3 жыл бұрын
Some of the best free trading lectures online man.
@vickburk3577
@vickburk3577 Жыл бұрын
I like Jared he tells it how it is ..he don't sugarcoat nothing.
@parall4x
@parall4x 3 жыл бұрын
don't normally comment but had to say thank you for posting this Jared. really great information in here
@ucenaqavac
@ucenaqavac 3 жыл бұрын
Idon't normally comment on comments but I have to agree with you.
@sl123sl
@sl123sl 3 жыл бұрын
Do you have a performance record for our review? Thx
@sellitwithbelle8776
@sellitwithbelle8776 2 жыл бұрын
bro i cant believe i came across this youtube channel. You are a teacher. thank you
@SergioGarcia-sk1nw
@SergioGarcia-sk1nw Жыл бұрын
This has been one of your best videos yet Jared.
@SwordsWorlds
@SwordsWorlds 3 жыл бұрын
Dude your level of explaining is legendary, I know you get it all the time I check the comment sections haha but thank you, this is premium content, I liked, im already subscribed, and I have shared with my trader community, great content brother.
@steveschaff
@steveschaff 3 жыл бұрын
Best video yet.I just keep watching and taking notes and following your guidelines.Soon I will be making consistent money.Thanks so much for the best content on the web..Jared You Rock Dude!!!
@OculusOfficial
@OculusOfficial 3 жыл бұрын
Thankyou for the long video Jared! Very happy to see an hour lecture from you, this one was incredibly informative. Appreciated man.
@glennmoyer4280
@glennmoyer4280 2 жыл бұрын
I’d watch this video several times. Talking about breaking a chart completely down. Thanks Jared, great educational video. Fly Eagles Fly 🦅
@justindaddow7225
@justindaddow7225 3 жыл бұрын
dude your a beast. wow mind blown, that stop lost deal has has got me more than once my friend. always trying to protect and it bights you in th e tail
@del7080
@del7080 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you Jared!!! Your videos are so clear and important for new trader like me. I'm getting better with your teaching. Very appreciate! Continue your good work :)
@JERFALCON
@JERFALCON 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jared. Your explanations are smooth and efficient! 🤙🏼🦅
@foxtrot5160
@foxtrot5160 3 жыл бұрын
excellent freaking video, I felt the fog lift, still misty but getting a much clearer picture. thank you Jared! we really appreciate your videos.
@wolfgangk.6154
@wolfgangk.6154 3 жыл бұрын
... its like 25 green candles in a row ... really really really great content .. thanks so much 🙋‍♂️
@HelpOutz
@HelpOutz 3 жыл бұрын
Howdy Jared, Thanks for another great content. These videos definitely help me from being feature in your insanity section. I learned money management at the beginning of my trading career through your videos or else, I'd have blown up my account. Again, thanks again and cheers!
@n0madictrad3r
@n0madictrad3r 3 жыл бұрын
The slide at ~53mins is a great reminder to folks who use platforms (like ToS) where many stocks are HTB and we try and FORCE long trades where there aren't any. SOH!
@Ykxdigital
@Ykxdigital 3 жыл бұрын
At 22:19, the 1) is still considerably alright though abit aggressive, there is 2 bottoming tails on the wide bars and followed by a retracement down to the moving average line, then there is a mini morning star pattern, i would enter at the first green bar as it is right above the moving average line after that mini retracements Number 2) is a no no. I like all your lecture especially this one, keep it up!
@NishatMbm
@NishatMbm 3 жыл бұрын
You are a great teacher. I am learning a lot from your videos. Thank you.
@jeremiahparrott9293
@jeremiahparrott9293 3 жыл бұрын
Wow Jared I know the fundamentals are everything thanks for such amazing quality of information you are such an amazing teacher
@garbizwal
@garbizwal 2 жыл бұрын
Wow thanks for sharing this. I didn't know I needed to learn to read charts better. But there is SO SO much more than I thought.
@scripturaministries4581
@scripturaministries4581 3 жыл бұрын
Your lectures are much appreciated Jarred. Thank you for your time.
@e.pleasure5920
@e.pleasure5920 2 жыл бұрын
best trading video ever 👍❤️
@markmcgwiresbackne5705
@markmcgwiresbackne5705 3 жыл бұрын
That consolidation on/above VWAP at 21:20 is one of the best setup and RR setups out there. Building a LARGE position within this consolidation throughout the day can be a monster trade. There is typically a large buyer just beneath VWAP. If stock doesn't go a little above then a little below, rather holds throughout the consolidation, get BIG. Throughout the consolidation, volume dries up. Longer the consolidation bigger the move out of it. Buy the base, buy the base, then buy the breakout. These are the basics
@k.i.8799
@k.i.8799 3 жыл бұрын
Love, love, LOVE these videos. The information is INVALUABLE!
@njorogeikonye
@njorogeikonye 3 жыл бұрын
🤞🤞🤞🤞
@smacpost3
@smacpost3 3 жыл бұрын
I keep hearing your voice giving advice when I'm analyzing a potential trade. It's a bit weird, I know, but it's making me a much better trader. I don't know how you find the time, but don't stop, okay? :) Thank you Jared.
@OfficialBeeswax
@OfficialBeeswax 3 жыл бұрын
I'm just paper trading for now, but your videos are very informative and helpful. Thank you!
@duke9382
@duke9382 3 жыл бұрын
Great lecture Jared! Very useful content and certainly gives me lots to think about.👍
@excavating9269
@excavating9269 Жыл бұрын
Your an awesome teacher!! Best I’ve ever seen!
@cathyhirzel3751
@cathyhirzel3751 3 жыл бұрын
Pain is a neccessary evil! Love your lessons! You are the best!
@TheStargirl0412
@TheStargirl0412 3 жыл бұрын
Really amazing video, extremely thorough and well explained. Top notch - thank you very much Jared.
@mingchieh123
@mingchieh123 3 жыл бұрын
This is super helpful and useful. Handsdown on you, you are a great teacher!!!
@westslifetube
@westslifetube 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the lecture, volume for the win 📈
@Tampanda
@Tampanda 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you, Jared for bestowing your wealth of knowledge upon us. I also look to you as a trader who is emotionally solid and consistent with his trading plan. I strive to kill the relentless three demons. The trying to be right demon, the get rich quick demon, and the revenge trading demon.
@saifouoz4724
@saifouoz4724 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks broo graet information for free the best trading channel i now
@PykcEditsVFX
@PykcEditsVFX 3 жыл бұрын
thank you so much man you make this shit so clear, god bless you and everyone else here, YOU WILL BECOME A PROFESSIONAL TRADER. Love & Light to everyone.
@derekfcc
@derekfcc 3 жыл бұрын
100% retracements on transitions is a useful note. I think I’ve tossed a few trade ideas to the side due to a full retracement only to watch them run. Always good to remember WHERE the 100 is happening as well, good during a transition... not so good DURING the actual trend that you’re trading
@derekfcc
@derekfcc 3 жыл бұрын
@@Danny-nk4cj I believe we’re both looking at it the same. Stocks moving down and bounces, this makes a V. It retraces the bounce and gives up 70-100% of the gains of that last leg of the V, and starts to form a W. The theory would be to enter in that last zone with a stop under the double bottom, expecting the last leg of the W to form. The only addition comment that I was making was that you have to keep in mind what is leading into the formation. This is all in the context of a stock that’s trending down but appears to be coming into support. This is where you expect to see 70-100% retracements. If the stock was trending up and retraced 70-100% of a breakout then I would be more hesitant. All theory though. This market has been bananas.
@jonathongeiger27
@jonathongeiger27 3 жыл бұрын
My boy Roger giving that good advise in this video
@plantsomething
@plantsomething 3 жыл бұрын
Jared, What are your thoughts on trading news? Earnings,new products,ect. ? Learning a great deal from your videos...Thank You
@Live.Traders
@Live.Traders 3 жыл бұрын
We don't trade news. But we might trade the REACTION to news. There is a difference. I don't buy because Tesla sold more cars, I buy because the chart reacted to that information and showed me a pattern.
@boblikeschickennuggets661
@boblikeschickennuggets661 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for all your coaching and tips. We as newbies would be much more ignorant about the market without honest people to help us along. I myself am only about a year old in the world of the markets. Have had a few wins and a few bumps. Your videos were foundational to my entrance to stock trading. As you have said, charts are what everyone loves, but the rest of your advice has been integral too-- the overall message has come home to me over time. Thanks again, and I wish your enterprise God's blessing and the knowledge of eternal life through Jesus Christ!
@Longlostpuss
@Longlostpuss 3 жыл бұрын
Absolute quality lecture as always Jared, maximum respect for taking the time out to drop another one of these.
@ghahandi
@ghahandi 3 жыл бұрын
There are useful trading videos on YT- Many are some of the same old redundant themes. However, there are diamonds among the mix. Jared's videos are a must, Price action is important. Watch 1st. watch again-take notes. Then watch again. It's taken awhile, finally , if you recognize the jewels, you can get a free 1st class trading education right here on YT. Subscribe to this guy- devote an hour or 2 every day-with a fresh notebook- & absorb what Jared & others generously divulge.
@LivingWaterWay
@LivingWaterWay 3 жыл бұрын
This is excellent information but the 40 ads is way too distracting, you start getting it then get interrupted 😒
@simontacey3780
@simontacey3780 3 жыл бұрын
brave browser
@rigo.garcia
@rigo.garcia 2 жыл бұрын
Entitled lol it’s free
@pvpatni
@pvpatni 3 жыл бұрын
I really liked the the way you explained this. Thank you so much. Though I have an question, have seen it multiple times, In uptrend it comes down to support level, breaches it to down, closes the candle below support, and then boom....back up.... How do we know, or get an idea that this is a false break out?
@kyggoonz
@kyggoonz 3 жыл бұрын
I don’t mind the adverts for the knowledge. Amazing video once again Jared. Keep them up
@M0RGENDUGG
@M0RGENDUGG 8 ай бұрын
there are so many things in life we have to experience to truly understand how and what it is.
@tradingpsychologyacademy2025
@tradingpsychologyacademy2025 3 жыл бұрын
Let's go! You got to love Wednesdays,
@SupremeClientele
@SupremeClientele 3 жыл бұрын
Yes
@ThreeSalmonCircus
@ThreeSalmonCircus 3 жыл бұрын
Another very high quality video. Thanks Jared.
@soothingsounds2168
@soothingsounds2168 3 жыл бұрын
First off great video I have learned alot because of all of your videos but.. what’s with the seventeenth ads I will have to watch this video at least 3 times because now I’m thinking about Mc Chickens and the old people doing their laundry if I had an ad stop loss on this video I’d get stopped out at 12:47 just say n
@13mileon
@13mileon 3 жыл бұрын
If you watch the whole video you should be able to watch it the second time ad-free. Kinda hard to complain about getting quality content, but having to watch 30 minutes of ads. I'd say it's most definitely worth it
@13mileon
@13mileon 3 жыл бұрын
Or you can use adguard, there is a way to watch youtube videos ad-free using their software
@freemind2025
@freemind2025 3 жыл бұрын
Jared the candlestick master 🙏🏼
@suyogkulkarni8427
@suyogkulkarni8427 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for your efforts , really helpful videos
@siroshsatheesan5308
@siroshsatheesan5308 10 ай бұрын
Very enlightening videos, greatly appreciated sir.
@robertlabrie3954
@robertlabrie3954 3 жыл бұрын
This is an outstanding video. I look forward to seeing your other videos.
@injectec
@injectec 3 жыл бұрын
Great stuff! That's the reason I love watching your videos. Thanks a lot.
@fishrrelaxing9361
@fishrrelaxing9361 3 жыл бұрын
Most helpful educational look if ever had in 10 plus years if this.. I’ve always profited but had big losses and had to work double to cover them and get them back.. always seem to get in at the wrong times and right reasons. Sometimes having to get overly aggressive snd clever. I’ve always been good about trading in the support but so many times I don’t chart back far enough cause I’m afraid I’m about to miss a big move only to see that I missed key information that would’ve told me before not to buy or sell. Actually just did this last week cause I only charted a few weeks back missing what I thought was a new high and explosion in to find out latter I missed the long term double topping and was entering when one should be exiting.. lucky for me support bounced and I was at least able to exit at my entry otherwise I’d be bag holding right now..
@restassuredworship
@restassuredworship 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for this amazing content. Such great stuff, and needs to be paid attention to!! Watching for the 2x time...
@cebinmevta
@cebinmevta 3 жыл бұрын
You and Rayner are the best, thanks you.
@karoshii_x_1229
@karoshii_x_1229 3 жыл бұрын
I’m up $200,000 dollars on the ticker symbol OZSC ... crazy as hell !! More to come in the next week or so with the announcement of the equity firm and the share buyback. Bh
@henryshao4029
@henryshao4029 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the very useful knowledges
@sowpur
@sowpur 3 жыл бұрын
Great educational video. Thank you for posting this. What is considered as moving average here - 21EMA, 34EMA, 50SMA or something else?
@musicman59753398
@musicman59753398 3 жыл бұрын
You are getting through thick skulls....insanity is waning.
@Sk-bo1gm
@Sk-bo1gm 3 жыл бұрын
By following your videos and by practicing for some period of time we can make a living
@dontrinh7686
@dontrinh7686 3 жыл бұрын
Anyone who dislikes this video should go jump out the window. Thank you so much for sharing your insights as a professional trader!
@dustinbruce2300
@dustinbruce2300 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you brother, as always, it's much appreciated!
@r3ap3r91111
@r3ap3r91111 3 жыл бұрын
“Oh it makes sense I just can’t speak”.. good laugh on the drive in. Keep up the awesome work Jared!
@EcosystemDesignConsulting
@EcosystemDesignConsulting 3 жыл бұрын
Great lecture! Thank you for sharing this! These lectures are of great value.
@yankoboev841
@yankoboev841 Жыл бұрын
Thank you, Jared!
@signedelacroix7213
@signedelacroix7213 2 жыл бұрын
The 4th candle after 9:30 had huge volume too compared to the others, but it was not the bottom. So you can't rely on high volume on a red to tell it's the end.
@v4runs
@v4runs 3 жыл бұрын
"It is.... lecture time." Love it! :D
@PeacockJason
@PeacockJason 3 жыл бұрын
Great video. 2 questions what is the moving average you are always talking about and if it’s a confirm indicator for you, why don’t you use it?
@Live.Traders
@Live.Traders 3 жыл бұрын
I don't use it because after a while you 'know' where it is, so there's no point in having it on the chart if you already have a good idea of where it is...They are 'pattern boosters' but the volume and price are still #1. Nothing wrong with having an MA on your chart if you want...Cheers!
@PeacockJason
@PeacockJason 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the answer, I was just wondering what kind of moving average? Is it EMA 9 or EMA 4 or SMA 20?
@taylorwelch9209
@taylorwelch9209 3 жыл бұрын
@@PeacockJason Think he mentioned 21 SMA. He uses that and 9 EMA in pts
@Survivor_Trader
@Survivor_Trader Жыл бұрын
As Always Im very grateful for your work and lessons guys. In my humble opinion you´re the best channel about trading on youtube. Someday I will appear on WWIS as a good example for everyone. I just have one comment about this video. In the minute 29:54 Jared showed a chart with 4 numbers and he says that the number 1 of the chart is a good entry on 3BP in a 5M, however, acording to another video he said that a 3BP or 4BP is a momemtum movement, and in this case is not because is not the high of the day. If am I saying something wrong, please correct me. Thanks.
@robertlabrie3954
@robertlabrie3954 3 жыл бұрын
I would love to see you tackle the topic of what moves price, related to limit orders vs market orders and that given price changes along with it's corresponding volume - can we infer if there is institutional trading and enough volume to either extend the current trend or create a major trend reversal. I have not found this topic and lack a deep enough understanding to figure it out myself :/
@christophertone9566
@christophertone9566 3 жыл бұрын
his lectures are so fkn good that he gives away all his knowledge who would buy the book?
@r3ap3r91111
@r3ap3r91111 3 жыл бұрын
Anyone that supports the nature of “free lectures”.. PTS is kickass tho highly recommended
@thamizharasu6044
@thamizharasu6044 3 жыл бұрын
Hey jared how do you find right pivots
@anibaltorres6308
@anibaltorres6308 3 жыл бұрын
ty jared
@marhawk6468
@marhawk6468 3 жыл бұрын
Jared and his teachings are gem!
@octaviomiro9518
@octaviomiro9518 3 жыл бұрын
lol J you had me going for a min with that beard.... always have a stop lost or a trailing stop... keep rocking dude
@pliniomsann
@pliniomsann 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jared. Great lesson
@jambalaya3308
@jambalaya3308 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot Jared for all the good work that you are doing in teaching us. You have been a source of blessing. May God Bless you & your business abundantly:)
@PsyberDude69
@PsyberDude69 3 жыл бұрын
00:04:50 - Dream On by Aerosmith - I know it's everybody's sin You got to lose to know how to win
@Bark_h3llo
@Bark_h3llo 3 жыл бұрын
Its very informative lecture.
@martij1431
@martij1431 3 жыл бұрын
Great work, Jared, as always! Keep it up!
@russelllen8413
@russelllen8413 3 жыл бұрын
Another great video, Jared, thanks! However, I'm not sure why I had to watch an ad every 3 minutes throughout the whole thing lol Guess that's the "price" I pay for premium content =)
@johnlewis1497
@johnlewis1497 3 жыл бұрын
Awesome sauce.
@hpt08
@hpt08 3 жыл бұрын
I like to watch the trade move until the NYSE lunch, and then some. Makes it easier to see. But the move from the morning coffee hit also needs watching like a hawk.
@AcnePractice
@AcnePractice 3 жыл бұрын
Another great lecture !
@horribletrader2791
@horribletrader2791 3 жыл бұрын
Holy advertisements Jared... You hurting for money? Haha... keep up the great content.
@BillionaireFounders
@BillionaireFounders 8 ай бұрын
You can use the Bollinger bands and kentler channel on this strategy
@haithamdohya1959
@haithamdohya1959 3 жыл бұрын
It is amazing content, all vedios are very very good I have a question I watched the timeframe lecture and moving avarage too But I still confused when I found moving avarage at higher or lower time frame up and it looks down trend but on other time frame at the same time is uptrend so which of them I have to consider and follow, I wish if you can make a lecture about that MTF and MA
@isra1974
@isra1974 2 жыл бұрын
Excelent video. Regards from Mexico
@Boulevardfree
@Boulevardfree 3 жыл бұрын
Respectfully disagree concerning point 4 being the optimal entry in the slide at 27:16. In hindsight it's better, but in real time it's not. Here's my reasoning: Point 3 is an almost picture-perfect breakout after a long, tight consolidation, including reasonable confluence (MA). If I were to attempt getting in at point 4 from the get-go (violating our breakout entry strategy), I'd be monitoring the development, looking for point 4 to come along, right? I'd be looking for it to occur in the form of the first pullback/consolidation after busting above the long-established resistance (without crashing below it of course). Problem is, that would probably have me enter at 3 candles after point 3 instead of the actual point 4. Before anything more unfolds, I'd be hard-pressed to see in that 3-after-3 figure anything but the expected (at that point in time still phantomic/futuristic) point 4. Its configuration even resembles a 4BP (though imperfect), adding to my now confluence-fortified perception that I am indeed dealing with the expected point 4 (=first micro-correction after the break above long, tight consolidation's resistance in 4BP configuration). Had I carried myself with an intention to trade point 4 all along, I would almost certainly have been faked in at that "3-after-3" candle. No crystal ball, no way of knowing at what level point 4 (i.e. first pull-back) is going to take place. My stop-loss in that scenario would not be sufficiently low to not be faked-out by real point 4 coming along right after, resulting an an avoidable loss. The SL would more sensibly have been right below the new little "3-after-3 low" (post break-out micro-consolidation's low). Summing up, I still view it as favorable to enter by the book at point 3 with an equally by-the-book stop-loss below the long consolidation's lows. My SL below the long consolidation would still keep me in the profit, actually bigger profits (favorable entry point)! The alternate strategy (wait for point 4) belongs with W-bottoms in my thinking, not break-outs. "Point 4 strategy" would probably have me enter at point "3-after-3", mistaking it for point 4, triggering my SL (below the 3-after-3 micro-consolidation/4BP) on the way to real point 4. The only way this is not a loser is if I put my SL below the long setup-consolidation's lows. But that is systematically disadvantageous, having me enter later and dearer without making use of the "new reassuring confluence info" that reaching a purported point 4 yields. I end up entering with identical absolute downside (=SL), more relative downside (higher entry price) and a distinct possibility of missing out completely if the breakout begins with a strong move up. I prefer having that same SL with a point 3 entry strategy. It a) fully participates in the 35% or so cases where the breakout just begins with a respectable move up with no early retest/point 4 occurring at all b) stops me out with less losses because of the lower entry point if things go south (given the identical SL level to initial breakout entry) c) does not waste the lower portion of my gains if there is indeed a point 4 (which breakout-entering-me just waits out as per our rules) that does not trigger my SL below. Like I said, odds-wise (i.e. SL to Entry to TP proportion) a higher entry is detrimental by losing a higher amount if I'm wrong and winning a lower amount if I'm right. The only way to justify a later, higher entry is information-wise (i.e. higher prediction quality qua observed point 4). But that new info in turn only comes to bear statistical fruit if I make use of that information, i.e. have the formation of point 4 allow me a tighter SL, which you would not have me do as per the video, instead opting for the old, lower SL which I could have had cheaper, earlier and without missing out on the most profitable and emotionally least taxing scenario (simple, strong move up after breakout). The tight new SL, which we paid for with the lower portion of our break-out gains in a "some point 4 occurs" scenario AND our potential participation in strong, uninterrupted moves up ("no buyable point 4 occurs" scenario), not only reduces my gains if I win, but also turns them into losses if I mistake a "3-after-3" figure for point 4, whose subsequent occurence stops me out at an avoidable loss. At this point, let me reiterate that I write this in as much respect as gratitude. But I'm siding with book-Jared on this. Best regards
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