Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe

Analysis of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. I use Kilcullen's theory about liminal warfare and prospect theory to analyse the operational design.
This shows that Russia is the most likely suspect, because all other actors would have made different operational choices.
I then give some pretty depressing perspectives on how Russia might use hybrid warfare against Europe.
0:00 Intro
1:02 Model for hybrid warfare
1:51 Operational design of Nord Stream sabotage
3:05 Consequences of the attack
4:59 US, Poland and Ukraine
6:56 NGOs and climate activists
7:25 Russia
8:17 Who would take the risk?
8:42 Prospect theory
9:33 Russia likely to take risks
10:16 Blow up their own pipeline?
11:30 Hybrid war on Europe

[@Raikenbolai]

this aged well.

[@anguschiu2]

One of the rare occasion I praised the KZbin algorithm is recommending your channel to me. I always learned something new in your video, thank you so much!

[@itsjustameme]

He is pretty awesome. He is more or less the go to person that the danish media use when they need an informed opinion on something relating to war or power politics.

[@chilijohny354]

Yes, and he also doesn't just repeat what everyone else is saying, but truly brings a different analysis on the situation

[@tordsteiro9838]

Same here. Awesome channel!

[@fromthefire4176]

Yeah outstanding channel. Also, I think there’s a trick to cultivating the algorithm to make good recommendations, for one don’t leave anything on your history that you don’t want it influenced by, I also generally don’t leave likes or dislikes since that can sway the returns too. The more you watch short vids the more short it’ll recommend and this is a good example of influencing it in real time, click on a few long vids or so and you’ll start seeing more long ones recommended pretty quick. So if you’re getting frustrated, try opening a few old vids similar to what you want new content on, gaming news etc. don’t have to watch but just get them in your recent history and it’ll fish around, once it gets a feel for what you want it can be pretty good tbh.

[@barnsej98]

@@itsjustameme He is using western Propaganda to say Russia is loosing. Not true, the west is loosing. They are trying to start a nuclear incident but it will not work.

[@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416]

Zeit journalist investigation suggests they identified the boat but not the team identity nor who gave the order.

[@mennouphoff8889]

Could you revisit this topic, in light of intelligence leaks blaming Ukraine? I still find it hard to believe as the adverse consequences for Ukraine might have been huge in that case. Or did Ukraine calculate that there is already too much of a commitment from Western states, for them to stop aid if Ukraine were to do such a thing? Makes the matter even more complicated, I'm really interested in further analysis of this case.

[@tylerb9877]

The US government blew it up, and they're changing the narrative because everyone started catching on to their bullcrap.

[@David-kg5nn]

What does a clandestine pipeline attack look like then? How do you not create awareness of an attack on one?

[@jasonlast7091]

I totally agree with this analysis. I think Russia saw the writing on the wall with this pipeline and tried to cash in the chips while they still might be worth something. This move sows division in the west (which is working) and can also be blamed on the U.S. (a fan favourite), with the added benefit of intimidating European countries (notably those who are geographically close and may or may not be forming new military alliances with a certain treaty organisation)

[@abrahamdozer6273]

I'm not an American but the notion that the United States would damage a gas pipeline like that is crazy/whacko/QAnan nonsense.

[@Logarithm906]

Well, this comment is promising. I've yet to watch the video but that's basically what my thinking on this situation is. Pipelines are now useless to russia. They're off, they're staying off, Europe is never going to be its main customer again. Blowing up the pipeline in a very visually distinctive way (giant jacuzzis in the Baltics are pretty impressive) is the only thing they're useful for now as it might damage European energy markets more, putting pressure on Europe but more importantly, causing friction between EU states on how to proceed. Blame the US to add more friction.

[@scratchy996]

What people don't realize is that Putin has been waging hybrid war against Europe since he got into power.

[@tellyboy17]

@@Logarithm906 The pipes are not useless, Russia made sure to keep one out of the two Nordstream two pipelines intact, which again proves it was behind the attack BTW.

[@crogeny]

Since the pipelines were attacked Finland and Sweden have not shown the slightest indication of withdrawing their applications to join NATO. Twenty-eight countries have approved their accession bid and when Turkey and Hungary follow suit it will be a done deal.

[@leopoldbloom4835]

Excellent analysis! Much more in-depth than anything I could find anywhere else. Thank you for sharing your insights!

[@z33r0now3]

Perun, Joe Blogs, Ward Carroll with Justin Bronk, "Starbaby" Pietrucha on 10 percent true. There, now you got more of this level of quality. I could name 5 more. The notion that only bs is out there is far from the truth. No one single handedly delivers a complete picture.

[@mettegoldmann9674]

thank you for a very educationel analysis ( as usual ). I allways look forward to your next video. Understanding is really important for me.

[@gorillaguerillaDK]

Thank you for talking about this topic - I was afraid you wouldn’t be allowed to talk more on this issue! Watched you on TV where you also explained the concept of Hybrid Warfare and the space for covert operations - always a bit weird hearing you talk Danish because I’m so used to you speaking English here on KZbin! Also, you’re definitely spot on on this issue! Tak for din kæmpe indsats for at holde os opdaterede - er virkelig taknemmelig for det!

[@gorillaguerillaDK]

The pipelines will be obsolete very soon anyway - and the benefit of blowing up their own pipeline is that we can’t even accuse them for an act of war against any of us! Also, now they don’t have to deliver agreed gas through NS1 and can get a much higher price on the gas they do deliver through other pipelines, such as the Yamal-Jamal-Jagal

[@raahauge]

Same. I thought I heard that the employees at "Forsvarsakademiet"/"The Defense Academy" had been told not to talk publicly about this issue. I was obviously wrong.

[@klausnielsen7102]

Greetings from Norway. That was my impression too! But I am glad that you where able to share your thoughts and insight again. We are quite worried here in Norway with alle the critical infrastructures in 5he North Sea and all 5he people we have working there.

[@gorillaguerillaDK]

@@raahauge It’s probably just the findings from the investigation then - and as long as they don’t say anything else than what they already has said publicly it’s not a problem - at least that’s my guess!

[@raahauge]

@@gorillaguerillaDK I think you are right. In the video Anders is not sharing any information that is not already public.

[@jrnmller1551]

Anders I think there is 3 additions to this: 1) Gas prices were starting to fall the week prior to the bombings, that was not in the interest off Ruzzia, they want gas prices high also to hurt Europe this winter! 2) A Ruzzian professor came up with the theory that the Ruzzians did it because there were rumours off a law suit coming from Germany on breaking the contract! (alternative: Gazprom revencing that their top manegement got lost, falling out off windows) 3) By blaming the US/West for it, their narrative is: see their are coming to get us! (same time distracting from the war and the mobilisation)

[@itube0047]

Absolute nonsense 1) Grasping at straws 2) Irrelevant. Gazprom would not care because they are a Russian company based in Russia, so there would be no reach. 3) More grasping at straws I think a fair assessment is that it was the Americans. You can always find arguments for everything. You arguments for Russia doing it is far weaker, than the arguments for 9/11 being an inside job or that there was no moon landing (not that I would agree - I have no idea, and don't really care). Best regards!

[@termitreter6545]

The contract theory is just gibberish. Russia doesnt care about contracts, money or even reality, otherwise it wouldnt have started the war. Not to mention, he thinks Russia cares enough about law to want to avoid paying fines, but not enough to publically blow up a pipeline? Imma call bullshit on that one.

[@jamesgornall5731]

It's not even a case of price, if it's not there now and you require it immediately, paying 1900 times the price for extra elsewhere in 5 days simply might not be enough.

[@termitreter6545]

@@itube0047 The idea that america did this is just as absurd as the reason being gas contracts. If you think so, then you dont understand the situation, like at all. Idk why youre even talking about this. Watch the video. It explains a few reasons why what happened is nonsensical for the US but fits Russias behaviour.

[@Dennell_Mount_and_Blade]

@@termitreter6545 The fact that you are surprised someone is talking about this says enough about your open-mindedness. Lots of strange things happened in the last few years, before that as well but not as much in plain sight. You have to carefully judge each situation, and just because one video disagrees with a point of view, doesn't mean the video is automatically right. That's very narrowly minded. All I know is the Americans can't be trusted as well, I'm also not saying the Russians can be trusted. But the elites are playing their games and it's the common folk who always suffer the most, that's something I'm 100% sure of.

[@kamerona]

This is such a great video, it clarified some important ideas that i kind of understood but had no idea how to frame in my thinking. Thank you.

[@Kiaorafranz]

Hahaha, it's just, everything is wrong.

[@ChrisGurin]

Prospect theory is new to me, and I have imbedded the concept “people like to win, but really, really hate losing,” in how to think about this conflict. Your videos are like having a personal presidential briefing.

[@cryhavoc8461]

If piqued, you can find the original theory paper here: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, 'Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk', Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2 (Mar., 1979), pp.263-92.

[@ChrisGurin]

@@cryhavoc8461 Thank you!

[@pierresaelen3097]

@@cryhavoc8461 I also want to thank you for this reference.

[@Bjowolf2]

My money is on Iceland and Luxembourg 😂

[@peka2478]

Kahneman also explains the winning/losing in "thinking fast and slow", if youre more into easier lecture (basically: people react differently to "you have a 10% chance to win 100$" than to "here, take these 100$, and now you have a 90% chance to lose these 100$")

[@enricogattone432]

Every time you publish a new video, I get more and more convinced that your channel has about a couple million subscribers less than it should

[@jornzander1285]

Yes! Definitiv!

[@thornshar]

Fascinating analysis, much better than any conventional news source, thanks!

[@chriscoomans4434]

I'm glad i found your channel. It really adds to my yt experience and is very educative! Much appreciated. You deserve more subscribers.

[@psionicpowers132]

Yt, u mean albians aka European hybrids grafted by Yakub aka jacob in the Bible?

[@LondraCalibro9]

woah.....this just made everything way more scary! Great video as always, love your work - thank you!

[@larsrons7937]

Very good, insightful analysis. What both gives me confidence and disturbs me is that, except for the models of assessing it, your thoughts and conclusions are exactly those I had tuesday morning when I first heard about the leaks that monday. Tak skal du have!

[@SchmidtMueller]

Thank you very much for your deep insights! Your videos help tremendesly to understand the current global situation.

[@leoh761]

Incredible analysis! Thanks for sharing and keep it up!

[@l.ijspeert9040]

Very enlightening as always, thanks!

[@skirwan78]

you are amazing. keep doing what you do! These videos and perspectives are awesome

[@TheKronprinsen]

Thank you for your update on this subject!

[@girander]

I'm impressed with and enjoy your presentations; professional neutral and to-the-point 😃 As an extrapolation of your video; I'd love to know what do you think regarding the drones observed near North Sea petro-platforms?

[@hedobannord1184]

Great analysis (as usual) - thank you!

[@Gerdienator]

This has answered all my questions about how, why and who in regards to the pipeline explosions. Outstanding analysis. I had a hard time making sense of it before. It makes sense now. Thank you Anders.

[@eugene7309]

Can you help me please, because I still cannot understand the reasoning. The first part of the video states that the operation was designed in a special way. My imagination fails to find any other way of permanently disabling the pipeline. US tried stop it through sanctions, it kinda worked, but now it is permanent. No computer attack or policy could do the same thing.

[@jannegrey593]

@@eugene7309 Policy would actually do the trick, it would just be very dick move from USA and not clandestine. Also cyber attack on such critical infrastructure would render it inoperable for months if not years until the end of investigation. Not to mention that you could have actually done the cyber attack in such a way that would render pipeline unusable. Over-pressurize it for example (if the pipe wouldn't blow up it would still have to be inspected - this would take years to allow European regulatory bodies to allow it to open). Force shutdowns due to attack and force lengthy investigations. Make use of how all of the European countries involved work and how lengthy the process of restoring faith and not having 80% of population be afraid that it will harm environment or brake down every couple of months, is. There were cyber attacks done on small scale as well as proof of concepts on similar machinery. Destructive cyber attacks. I'm not talking about "ha, ha we hacked your website and you're down for 3 hours". Also there could be gradient - basically invisible cyber attack on gas turbines, so compressors etc. It would take longer and would take some time, but with that you could regulate the damage. Take it down for couple of months for example. And again, you're not seen, in some cases, you're not even suspected. And yes - it is completely doable to physically destroy modern running engine that is controlled by computer - as is case in such huge infrastructure project. For similar cyber attack see Stuxnet. Though there were a lot more tests done on things that are very similar to what is used in Nordstream.

[@davieb8216]

@@jannegrey593 Yeah, Stuxnet is actually a great example . Took a while to realise it was an attack, but once found was obviously a US attack as they were the only one with the tools and motives to do it. Trying to do a non detectable attack makes it more obvious who performed the attack.

[@johnle6982]

Don’t you remember how the Israeli/US s worm disabled the Iranian centrifuges?

[@davieb8216]

@@johnle6982 Yep, Stuxnet.

[@jornzander1285]

I've been waiting for this video so desperately. Thank you for explaining this. Probably what the media will analyze for us in a month or so.

[@geopolitix7770]

Yup! I've been waiting for this and wasn't disappointed!

[@mike_oe]

hahaha, yes.

[@rockylane6621]

As always, very informative and excellent video. Thanks

[@Neil.Swinnerton]

This was cogently argued and very informative. Thank you!

[@clausmadsen6754]

Really waited for a new analysis from this channel

[@Mishn0]

I wish other You Tube channels would adopt your three second intro montage. There's no reason for a 15 minute video to have a 90 or more second intro.

[@FranzBinder20]

I'm not really convinced about the "below detection" option in this particular case. How on earth should it be possible to make these pipelines dysfunctional without anyone noticing that somebody made them dysfunctional?

[@hrvojebartulovic7870]

It was Eskimos, undetected in their leather kayaks. They want to make us drill on Greenland. But it was not Americans. They wouldn't. They are good guys, all of them!

[@termitreter6545]

Theres a lot of ways to do this without blowing them up with 100s of kilograms of TNT equivalent. Structurally weaken the pipeline, so they just burst at some point, maybe even try to make it look like an accident. Sabotage the ground stations so that opening the valves again causes a critcal failure. Make it so that its hard to detect, looks like an accident, or only happens when the pipeline is actually reactivated. Im not an expert, but you got a serious lack of imagination if you think making it look like a giant act of terror was the only thing to do this. And you wont understand any of the politics if you cant imagine anything else.

[@stevepirie8130]

Question is why haven’t they stopped pumping gas into it? Answer, their storage tanks were full, domestic use at 100% and millions of tonnes of gas is still coming out the ground needing moved on. They burn $10m worth a day by flaring off, blowing the pipes has let them off gas and pollute polish, German, Swedish and Danish waters instead of their own air only.

[@uffa00001]

@@stevepirie8130 From what I read, one has to keep the pipes full of gas because the pipe is designed to use the inner pressure to resist the outer pressure. If I understand correctly, this also means the entire pipe is probably not any more structurally safe and would probably be "written off", if ever the EU needs and wants another such pipe (after a regime change in Russia) that means building another one.

[@rapter229]

below detection doesn't need to mean no one noticed a problem, it just means that the fact it was an attack/operation is left undetected. This can be as simple as intercepting and switching out some replacement machine component in transit, with a weaker one that will break and cause catastrophic damage. To everyone else looking at it, it seems like an accident. Therefore the sabotage remains undetected. A well hidden cyberattack could also be used to cause a machine to damage itself without being obvious. While not an example of an operation meant to remain undetected, when the US sabotaged the Iranian nuclear program, they did so by inserting malware into the devices that controlled the centrifuges that enrich the uranium before they were delivered, then the malware caused the centrifuges to spin so fast they destroyed themselves. So the technical and operational capabilities to cause sabotage covertly was demonstrated.

[@hanscarlsson6583]

Thanks for sharing! Very good to get some, at least for me, new ways of thinking about the attack.

[@maxdelaserna9540]

This is the analysis that makes the most sense so far.good job

[@geennaam2712]

You can really explain things very good about this topic thx for covering this! Also, I saw you on the Dutch national television about the northstream

[@josecarlosamador]

I love your videos! Thanks for the great work.

[@willemvanriet7160]

Brilliant and insightful analyses! Loving your channel and content

[@jeppelarsen7862]

Always a pleasure to watch! I learn a new logical way of thinking every time I watch this channel! Bravo!

[@z33r0now3]

Operation design and prospect theory, thanks for that. Highly enlightening.

[@Oddingen]

Som vanlig; en meget interessant analyse. Takk for det. 👍

[@b.griffin317]

Interesting. You made a better case than I've heard elsewhere. Thanks Anders.

[@Spins44]

Better case? Makes no sense. Russia didn't attack their own people. Azov did. Russia is already building back homes the region. Hitting the pipeline makes no sense for the Russians. US or close ally did. People need to wake up United States is becoming a pawn to the United Nations. United? UN is United-ly run by woke tyrants.

[@Asptuber]

Indeed. I think one of the problems with this - at least for me - is that there has been no good arguments presented for why Russia would do this, and an overabundance of "of course Russia did, they're the bad guys". As with origins of Covid it is the absence of speculation, what looks like a manufactured silence in the press, that makes one suspicious. In terms of straight forward effects, cui bono, it is extremely hard not to jump to "someone who wanted Germany to have no choices". My first thought was Baltics + Poland. But the risks there if exposed would be too great, might rupture NATO quite badly.

[@b.griffin317]

@@Asptuber That and 'Russia has nothing to lose (i.e. Ukraine War going badly, Putin's only options for escalation; 1. conventional mobilization -which is sputtering out before it begins, 2. attack western civilian infrastructure, 3. nuclear - would likely not have desired effect and have huge downside, so choose Option 2), Putin is acting erratically/irrationally (an argument I'd normally dismiss out of hand but given the conduct of the Ukraine War actually sounds plausible)' is the gist of Anders argument if I understand him correctly. Given the huge downside of attribution if done by a western/european country this doesn't sound quite as crazy on second thought as it does on first blush.

[@carstenlauren]

Super comprehensive analysis - as always. Thank you, and keep up the good work.

[@EthanChaleff]

I really like your perspective and insight and enjoy your channel. My only complaint is that your tie clip should be about 5cm higher ;)

[@ConnorLongDVM]

Love the videos. I do miss the grey backdrop from "bad design can kill" though, the blue gives me flashbacks to computer crashes from 1998.

[@andriib9390]

Very interesting thoughts, thank you! Looking forward for video about war updates and frontline changes

[@anderspuck]

Thanks for your support. Hope you have seen the new video on the frontlines.

[@peterhenkel9957]

I always enjoy your professional analysis.

[@wayneackerman4230]

Great assessment of the situation Anders. Your arguments are well put out and logical.

[@violjohn]

At last a channel that asks you to think about things. Well done 👍

[@glyons1843]

Great video as always. I always learn something watching your stuff. Thank you!

[@187Rajah]

Great bullshit, US / Britain did it

[@Slavic_Goblin]

They're not really that insightful. As usually, the guy has a conclusion and then looks for a way to reach it. I occasionally get his stuff reccomended by YT and it's always the same MO.

[@Blackburnian737]

These are great, thanks for making them I suspected Russia but this really explains why they would want to do this. Trying to do my part to get these boosted by the algorithm!

[@zenlei8258]

Nonsense. Do you have data proof Russia did this ?

[@Per-se9kv]

Just randomly, I found your profile. It's amazing to see this high-level logic analysis and have to say, that I do agree with all of your points.

[@Kiaorafranz]

Hahaha, 4 months later. Don't you feel fooled by now?

[@Raphael-vg2fs]

This is one of the best analyses of something i have ever seen.

[@Mark1024MAK]

Thank you for your video, I found it most interesting 😀👍 Best wishes from the West Country area of the U.K.

[@johnjoeflanagan]

It's so refreshing having you analyse these issues. I always feel better after listening to your interpretation.🤝

[@1inAtrillion]

too bad its all wrong

[@TurboHappyCar]

Great analysis as always. Thanks! 👍

[@dansiegel333]

Brilliant analysis- thank you!

[@michalduska9770]

Thank you! I like the theoretical background you planted in our heads 😉.

[@kyoungd]

I was confused about this, but your analysis cleared it up. Wonderful analysis. Tight reasoning.

[@globalshiffft]

You may like our channel @globalshiffft for independent analysis and reporting on the Ukraine war and other geopolitical events. We're all here to learn

[@battman141]

Fascinating breakdown. I love the logic in the expiation. Great JOB!

[@jankok22]

Thank you for your video, now I have bulletproof arguments. You have one of best analysis on this topic.

[@markignatiev7194]

Great insights and analysis as always! Thank you!

[@Kimjongilmao]

Brilliant video as always. I came to the same final conclusion but your process is so informative and helpful. Thank you!

[@jacktenrec472]

Anyone remember Pukin with his buddy Lukashenka dumping several hundreds of immigrants on Polish-Belarusian border? That was around November last year.

[@mike_oe]

This was brilliant, thanks for sharing!

[@goyakat2211]

I don't know.... I still think that they have much more to lose if they keep digging...

[@user-lp2op9uu1w]

Stort tack, väldigt informativ!

[@raytoei]

Love ur video. Subscribed. Tks

[@augustclark3337]

Anders, interesting video and analysis, thank you. Does the recent statement by the Swedes that for security reasons they will not disclose evidence gathered at the damage site change your thesis?

[@psotos]

Wow! What an incredible piece of analysis! Thank you Anders!

[@Ben-ry1py]

I love your analysis videos! thank you for doing all the work to share your perspective with us!

[@ValMartinIreland]

Biden admitted it

[@thesvobodnik]

Its good to have a channel like yours, who look at the war with expert eyes. Keep up the good work👊

[@davidelias1994]

Great analysis Perhaps another scenario to consider would be an internal Russian one. There are almost certainly groups in Russia that want to stop the war and go back to supplying Europe with gas take that option away from them and it makes that path more difficult and perhaps no other option but to knuckle down and continue with the war. Perhaps similar to Hernan Cortez burning his ships to stop the faint hearted from abandoning the conquest

[@N-JKoordt]

Russian state TV has been busy explaining how the US carried out the operation - so it's also useful for painting a picture of an agressive US pursuing it's own interest in selling LNG. And there's the legal implication of not having to pay compensation for breach of contract in face of force majeure. But a bit hard to see how a medium term stop to gas flow could be done clandestinely.

[@sharonrose9552]

The US probably sends more NG to Mexico, then it has to Europe, and sending LNG to Europe has helped create inflation in the US. Had European countries stayed on track for their renewable energy goals, this would be a lot less of an issue.

[@martinjuulandersen9694]

@@sharonrose9552 Well if you by that mean that EU had built numerous nuclear plants I would agree. But Wind and solar production is one major problems of the energy crises. The Technology isen’t mature. Its lacking and cannot produce Secure baseload for a grid. Denmark would have had Rolling Brown and Black outs if couldn’t use the Swedish nuclear based grid as back-up. Power to X is a mirage and isen’t an option in scale for the next 10-15 years if ever. So if your green mean nuclear your right. If you by green you solar and Wind your wrong and properly worse German.

[@jjc1347]

Mr Nielson is trying very hard to fit in a country into a pretty straight forward situation into his operational "detection threshold" and prospect theory. How would we know that the actors didn't do any clandestine activity? I would assume those activities will have minimal effect compared to what happened so they would need to go to the next level. Blowing up control rooms or hacking won't have the same effect as a pipeline sabotage. Prospect theory. It depends on who is "winning" or "losing". Following that same idea, it could be said that the Ukraine is about to get 4 of their territories annexed to Russia and thereby they feel like they are "losing" and thereby need to take more risks. You believe that the Russian economy is collapsing but the ruble is actually doing well, and inflation is controlled. Even with partial mobilization, Putin's rating has gone down but nowhere close to the Western leaders. So who would need to do more "riskier" activities? How about the Occam razor theory? NATO controls and monitors that area of the ocean heavily from ships to submarines. If Russia with their weak navy compared to NATO wanted to destroy it (based on your theory), they could do it much closer to their shores. They are now reporting that one pipe wasn't damaged and the others could be repair. Why would they want to report that if their goal was to destroy it?

[@edc1569]

The idea the US is that desperate to sell a few more litres of LNG is pretty mad

[@scratchy996]

@@jjc1347 "they could do it much closer to their shores. " - so it looks like they did it ? "Why would they want to report that if their goal was to destroy it?" - the goal is to create panic and divide the Europeans. It's just a continuation of their hybrid war against Europe and NATO.

[@rgicquaud]

Wow... Amazing analysis!

[@treyd3433]

Thanks for such an eye opening video!!

[@hewi1352]

Tak, Anders. Du er virkelig skarp til at fortælle hvad det er der sker. Deprimerende, men også meget meget interessant.

[@AndrewMann205]

You offer some of the best methods to evaluate the current situation in Europe. Great job!

[@ThorstenStaerk]

unfortunately yes

[@AndrewMann205]

@@ThorstenStaerk Why is having a framework to understand things unfortunate out of curiosity?

[@paulstewart1557]

Wow - such a lucid and compelling explanation without sensationalism. Congratulations! I will think about any new developments with a different sense of priorities now.

[@jack_batterson]

I value Anders' videos for exactly the reasons you state. 👍

[@spaceowl5957]

I don't think it's compelling at all if you put a little thought into it

[@KevinSmith-qo3lv]

@@spaceowl5957 it makes a lot more sense than the US did it when the gains for the US are minimal those pipelines were dead and wouldn't have been used for a long time even if they didn't explode so Russia lost basically nothing and the US gained basically nothing, even when you do cost analysis Russia had more to gain than the US, especially when you take into account the one of the pipes survived which basically means that for the US the operation was a failure and from the Russian side it would be considered as a success (the one pipe surviving)

[@spaceowl5957]

@@KevinSmith-qo3lv I'm German this is terrible for our economy. The prospect of reopening the pipelines would've (and already had) created a lot of pressure domestically to step away from the American line and be more cooperative with Russia. Just one of the reasons why the US has a credible interest in this. Which Russia does not.

[@spaceowl5957]

@@KevinSmith-qo3lv "even when you do cost analysis Russia had more to gain than the US" that's laughable

[@Schokelmei]

Excellent analysis. Thank you, very much.

[@ichodernicht8131]

I really like your channel and analysis, but here I can't follow. I think what you say about Russia is logical in itself, but when it comes to the US, I don't really see how the US could have sabotaged the pipelines below the detection threshold. When there is a leak in a pipeline like this, especially one big enough to permanently destroy the pipeline, that causes a rapid decrease in pressure within the pipeline. It would be impossible for either the German or the Russian side not to notice this. So I don't really see how this would even theoretically have gone undetected.

[@cogentdynamics]

Wow, what a nice job! I had been thinking about this and your logic helps me. An all around education in critical thinking.

[@a24396]

Wow, how do you not have more subscribers? Fantastic and cogent analysis. Thanks so much for posting!

[@dominicchaize1112]

He doesn't have many subscribers because he is hopeless. Listen to this trash about Russia blowing up its own pipeline. Now we know for certain that the US did it with the help of the norwegians - and possibly the British. The latter surely connivant if mothing else.

[@LinesSoftwareDevelopment]

Great content a well thought out argument and properly defended with good reasoning.

[@anderspuck]

Glad you like it - and thanks for your support.

[@WorshipinIdols]

BTW-the pipeline can be fixed relatively easily and quickly so this is not a long term or major obstruction.

[@andreruegg9490]

Your analysis is unbelievably thorough, detailed and well put forward. KZbin amazes me again, we get access to such well made piece of information for free, yet so few people consume it. Keep it up Anders, your analysis is fantastic.

[@spaceowl5957]

It's totally superficial and doesn't make any sense

[@j.calvert3361]

Yes very good analysis. Regrettably KZbin also has heaps of dumb sh*t.

[@Disinformation_Hoax]

@@spaceowl5957 Yes it's total drivel, unless it is meant to preach to the unsuspectful choir. As it seems to be the case. Then it's great piece of disinformation.

[@amirdepaz888]

I agree with your conclusion that it’s the Russian but If so, why USA didn’t immediately made an announcement for not doing it? (Personally I think it would have been a dangerous move if USA did it).

[@gabunka65]

Tak for at gør militær teori forståelig og hermed slå luften ud af diverse lomme teorier

[@andik.4235]

A very reasonable analyses with a depressing outlook of the things to come. Please keep up the good work.

[@uribensh]

Another excellent commentary, thanks

[@jw362]

Another excellent analysis!

[@lordbelh]

That was a good talk.

[@jack_batterson]

Another excellent video and analysis.

[@DanielArnolf]

German officials announced that there is no evidence incriminating Russia. Swedish investigation(cleanup) findings are "too sensitive" to be shared. Why would it be sensitive if it was Russia ? Isn't that the obvious ? All fingers are pointed at them, and you explain it very well. You should do a follow up of how theory blends with reality.

[@tsentenari4353]

excellent point

[@LasseEklof]

Now 8 months after it happened, we know more than before. There are saved radar logs showing Russian presence at the time. A few weeks before the explosions, 4 boats depart from St. Petersburg, halfway through they turn off their transmitters, but continue to the pipelines, where one of the boats then goes back and forth along the pipes several times - even if they have turned off their transmitters, they are visible on the radar. And a few days before the explosions, 2 boats, with transmitters turned off, set out from St. Petersburg one of which (SS-750) is a special craft carrying 2 mini submarines with grappling claws. They stay exactly at the site of the explosions where they are for about 18 hours, before returning. This is also visible on the radar and that the Danish Air Force photographed the boats on the spot. Pretty hard to explain away that it wouldn't be the Russians.

[@markotrieste]

Thank you for sharing your insight. I'm still not convinced of anything however. Let's see if the inquiries will be able to shed some light.

[@johnbirk843]

added comment, absolutely excellent analysis Er de Dansk? 😁

[@excessionary]

Articulate and well thought out argument, presented clearly as always. Thanks from Australia.

[@anderspuck]

Thanks for the nice words and your support.

[@EuropeanSoyboy]

Spot on, as always.

[@IndianDefenseAnalysis]

Brilliant Analysis ❤

[@murrayleskull2708]

Great video as always :)

[@djc9727]

The first thing out of Russia’s mouth was that they could fix it if sanctions were lifted. They also control the pigging (the tools used inside the pipe) of the line. Who ever did it also used excessive amounts of explosives. Where as a much smaller amount would have worked since what does not compress so the explosion has only one way to go and that into a empty pipe.

[@bipl8989]

58 lbs of TNT or some equivalent of other explosive per pipeline. The pipe was not empty. It contained gas at over 100 barg to 160 barg. The pipe is 26mm thick wall steel at that point.

[@mrmjunhy]

The pipeline was already shut. But still acted as leverage for future negotiations. Now it is blown up. And that leverage is gone. Who benefits?

[@quedeixisenpauelmeucomptej3852]

NS1 was shut , NS 2 wasn't open yet. Mind please that one pipeline of NS2 is left untouched, so it's more 'treat or trick' than leverage now.