Putin's Gamble: Why Russia Spent So Much on Bakhmut

Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them at no cost to you. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
The Battle of Bakhmut has become a puzzle for Western analysts: why has Russia spent so much on a city so apparently irrelevant? This video examines the possibility of Putin's domestic constraints. If Putin believes that the status quo will leave his tenure in doubt, then he needs to press forward to maximize the chances he survives in office. Thus, he is willing to continue fighting in places where an objective leader might not. Bakhmut has become the target in particular because the alternative places to mount an offensive are even less attractive.
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
www.flickr.com/photos/ministr...
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
armyinform.com.ua/2022/12/07/...
By Kremlin.ru:
tours.kremlin.ru/tour/senate/159/
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
www.en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
www.kremlin.ru/events/presiden...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
www.en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...

[@GojiMet86]

Love how this war went from a being "3-day Liberation Special Operation" for Russia to "Oops, we won a town but now we got Russian separatists".

[@zeriel9148]

Lol those aren't Russian separatists

[@sreebuszeebus1343]

Who are you quoting? Russia never said it’s a 3 day operation lol

[@TheHed94]

@@sreebuszeebus1343 Russia obviously didn't plan for any longer conflict lol. The lack of plan showed really quickly in the first weeks of the conflict.

[@TheHed94]

@@zeriel9148 They are russian citizens, aren't they? And they fight against Putin's regime. So they are separatists :D

[@FaridCG]

@@sreebuszeebus1343 Russian one of the main propagandist Simonyan said that they will take Kyiv in 2 days, while official Russian documents that they planned to win in one month.

[@MisterCoolthe2nd]

Man, me living in Quebec, hearing that Bakhmut is the equivalent of Drummonville, a small city with absolutely fuck all going on there really puts thing in perspective.

[@ronmortimer252]

Not many people would know where Drummondville is that's for sure. Cheers from Aus (ex MTL boy).

[@zachariasobenauf1895]

the size of an agglomeration is probaly a wrong perspective - as nice coloured maps are (which colors often falsly indicate owning / control) the confrontation of forces in time and space - and its ordinary accounting of losses (wia + kia) may be influenced by time and space but the perspective or the truth/effect of the outcome of clashes unfortunatly is usually simply war-accounting of lost assets there are fast-forward maps of ww2 on youtube - just showing the troop sizes at the several fronts (without weapon distinction or industrial production) - for non-military people this is a nice introduction into the first "perspective" how wars develop by their "made" relevant factors

[@markzalass]

It would be a lot of work just to take the casse-croute.

[@nataliejarosz9360]

As someone from Alberta, I know it only as one of the birthplaces of poutine.

[@gandydancer9710]

Actually that's no perspective at all. The value of, e.g., Gettysburg was not a function of its population.

[@errorisdei988]

if you present yourself as the most victorious nation since 1917, you have to present victories... if it's a completely ruined town, it's at least something.

[@jdreyes3745]

What town?

[@Wallyworld30]

Prigozhin doesn't care if every building is destroyed his treasure was Soledar Mine. It's extremely valuable so he can make giant profits selling it to another Oligarch or outright just keeping it. I think Prigozhin has given up on that dream though as he seems to had enough at Bakhmut.

[@zeriel9148]

I mean every nation tells itself stories like that. Whether they are or not. The less glorious a nation's past, the more they cope and pretend they are the source of all civilization.

[@errorisdei988]

@@zeriel9148 uhm... as someone who had peace ethics in his study, I can assure you, that's not the case. Germany and especially Austria are the best examples.

[@zeriel9148]

@@errorisdei988 They literally got decapitated by a foreign power and are still under the brainwashing regimen. How they were BEFORE that proves the case.

[@gawkthimm6030]

When I grew up, my uncles told me; "Gambling is just extra tax for those without math skills"...

[@karenjanusch7978]

Lol 😅

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Gambling is for those who don't know how to rig a game.

[@enriqueperezarce5485]

@@ccc_the_painful_truthNot all gambling games are rigged keep in mind

[@ems4884]

As an art historian, i will say this about Bahkmut. Such cities exist in the history of warfare. Places that become a focsl point for very prolonged, intense conflict with heavy losses. Depending on the outcome of the war, such sites not only ever the annals of war historians in a prominent place, but they often become rich sites of commemoration. We historians don't often try to predict the future, but i would say that if Ukraine retakes these lands postwar, Bahkmut and Mariupol are very likely to become major sites for memorialization. If Russia retains them, however, we should expect the opposite - an effort to forget what happened and how many people were lost . They would more likely put a simple monument in Donetsk snd Luhansk io reinfirce their false narratives.

[@TheYoutubeUser69]

yeah but russia sint gonna get jack shit^^

[@micixduda]

@@TheKZbinUser69 Russia already got more than it barging for, when they took Bahkmut. All they want is to kill those who oppose them and Ukraine provided them in Bahkmut.

[@ZootyZoFo]

Russia has already covered up the massive scale of war crimes they committed in Mariupol, the theater they bombed that was clearly marked “children” killed over 1,000 women & children and they covered it up with concrete and are building on top of it. There are also many mass graves there that were found from satellite photos.

[@dinoXAs2]

Russia would too put monument in Artemovsk

[@pootincopes]

​@@dinoXAs2 you mean Bakhmut.

[@user-user-user-user.]

The Russian military like Russia itself has always been somewhat of a chaotic mystery. In WW2 Poles, Ukrainians and eventually Austrians and Germans were stunned at the “scorched earth” policy the Soviets practiced even as they moved *forward* on their long march to Berlin. Lightly defended towns and municipalities were often obliterated well before Russian infantry arrived, leaving infrastructure, water supplies and even rail lines useless. Whatever civil servants, engineers or city administrators that remained, were often liquidated by the Bolsheviks under the premise that they were prone to be disloyal or were part of the intelligentsia. The result was entire portions of Eastern Europe knocked back to the Middle Ages (for decades). Russia’s urban-conflict doctrine, unlike that of Western armed forces, has barely evolved since World War II. We saw the same obsessive reliance on massed artillery in Grozny, in Aleppo, in Mariupol and now Bakhmut. That fact that these cities were obliterated beyond the point of being able to be occupied is besides the point. A military that expends upwards of 50,000 rounds of artillery per day (more than 3/4 of it as indirect fire) is not fighting for the “hearts and minds” of the people. Understanding Bakhmut means understanding the Russian psyche and the Russian worldview (as stained and brutal as it is). Russian arrogance and Russian fatalism compete at the same table, to the detriment of everyone around them.

[@Degarth]

That last line says so much.

[@VeritasOmniaVincit176]

Well put. I would add that this kind of thinking predates the USSR: Imperial Russia applied similar tactics against Napoleon and the Ottomans.

[@ZootyZoFo]

Russia has always had a thug army, I don’t know why people were so shocked when the scale of the war crimes they commit in Ukraine became clear, these are the same people who dropped Sarin nerve gas on civilian women & children in Syria a couple of years ago. The only reason Russia has not used Sarin gas & tactical nukes in this war is because NATO would get directly involved and wipe out every Russian position in Ukraine & every ship in their Black Sea fleet within in a week.

[@angelikaskoroszyn8495]

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. When Germany attacked Poland Poles believed that Soviets came to help us. It would be such an easy way of gaining support and loyality. Just don't invade the country you want to have good relationship with. Don't kill the local population which could be recruited into Red Army. Don't fund the country you will inevitably be in conflict with Is it that difficult to understand?

[@spacemanx9595]

​@@angelikaskoroszyn8495 ruzzians lack logic. I bet all their missiles were made by captured German scientists who never told them how they work. Now you got a bunch of Vadims with nukes that don't work

[@louislux]

Should be worth mentioning that Wagner chose bakhmut because they have more experience in urban warfare and preferred it over fighting on rivers and fields. The MOD attacked in other parts of donestk but failed so utterly that the media barely covered it. Even the debatable "victory" in Bakhmut is a lot more than the russian MOD was able to achieve.

[@Noel-ji8nm]

Ukraine wasted 5 months trying to defend Bakhmut with literally everything they had. 80% of all available Ukrainian artillery was deployed at Bakhmut, this meant that Ukraine lost the ability to make moves elsewhere on the front as they were busy, funnelling every bit of material they had into the fight. Worst yet is even with all of this, they still ended up losing the town despite constant reinforcement all the way until they had no more territory left. Bakhmut was a horrible loss for Ukraine, and it just goes to show how efficient Wagner and the Russian army are at storming fortified positions, although this was mainly thanks to their massive artillery and especially air power advantage. Russian jets patrolled Bakhmut without any threat as Ukrainian air defence systems were too spread out.

[@captaindonkeyballs]

@@Noel-ji8nm alternatively, it shows the power of throwing bodies at a target, don’t suppose you have the stats and comparisons for number of deaths on the Russian side vs the number on the Ukrainian one.

[@poling1990]

It was also close to a Russian controlled railroad which made it easier to supply an attack. It may have been less a matter of what city they should attack but what city they could attack.

[@jayclean5653]

​@@Noel-ji8nm This is a smoothbrain post. Seek help.

[@thedeepseaking3659]

@@Noel-ji8nm And yet after the lost of the town, and even some time before it, Ukraine was doing smaller controlled attacks on the flanks that had even the Wagner leader cursing out the MOD for the lost of land that his forces sacrificed to take. Hell, would you like to discuss how the Wagner are leaving the area back to rear to recover from the combat of a single town and a few smaller villages? Or would you rather talk about the fact that through out those months Russia had multiple times more artillery than Ukraine had but still was forced to go through ubran fighting for months to sercure it. Don't act as if Ukraine started off on equal footing with the Russians and this was just the Russian having better troops because it wasn't. The Russians threw everything they had at the town from white phosphorus munition to FAB-500 to level the town so that it couldn't be defendable for the Ukrainians. Fine so view of the town today and when you look at the landscape there of the aftermath tell me if you would have been able to continue fighting there within the hellscape.

[@ivancho5854]

The reason that Bakhmut was chosen was due to logistics. If you look at a map it is obvious. Vuhledar has only one road leading to it from Russian occupied territory. Avdiivka has maybe got two, but one is too close to the line of contact. Bakhmut however has three roads leading from Severodonetsk, Luhansk and Alckevsk which are not subject to artillery fire. Severodonetsk and Luhansk have rail connections with Russia which is vital for the Russian military to conduct a successful offensive. I honestly don't know why this isn't talked about more as it's not rocket science. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@robbrown4621]

They never made it to Severodonetsk or Luhansk because Zelensky chose to fight and hold Bakhmut. Brilliant move. I agree with you about why this point is not discussed more frequently... :)

[@Quickshot0]

It's likely the ability of the infrastructure to sustain an offensive is a good part of it, yeah. If one looks at the Southern front in more detail, one realizes that ever since the rail bridge got heavily damaged, it no longer has good rail supply options as there is no rail line as the coast, instead passing close to Vuhledar area instead.Which brings in question how well Russia could maintain sustained offensives in any area more towards the Dnieper river. Also it possibly answers why they made so many extremely costly attempts at taking Vuhledar.

[@wanderlust2522]

I know right? its obvious why they are fighting over bakhmut. and this video spends so long making things up lmao

[@TheBooban]

@@wanderlust2522 western media want to push Bakhmut has no value because they will lose it. And the video owner thinks Putin is owned by the mob. Utter speculation and obviously the fool doesn’t know how dictators operate.

[@williamgrissom9022]

Seems those 100K Russian soldiers who died could have easily built a bypass road around Bakhmut had they just given them shovels instead of guns. Look what Chinese and Indian laborers did to re-route the Burma Road during WWII after Japanese advances. Focusing so much on one town is as dumb as Hitler's insistence on taking Stalingrad during WWII.

[@docbogus6128]

And the map had the inscription (in French): "Ukraine, Land of the Cossacks"! The retired historian missed it, and Putin pretended he didn't see it.

[@ThoriberoCaroli]

And the areas of St. Petersburg were under Swedish rule, and Kaliningrad under Prussian/Polish. I wonder if he thinks those areas should be readressed as well. ;)

[@docbogus6128]

@@ThoriberoCaroli Great point. Let's start with the territory known as 'Kaliningrad', a concession to Stalin's blackmail. (This has already started, on the Polish maps, etc.)

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

One of the greatest things to come of this miserable war, is listening to William's insights. Said it before, love your work sir.

[@BiggestCorvid]

I've told dozens of people to buy his book. I don't think one has but it's just going to be Midsummer gifts for all my loved ones.

[@23uhr]

dont forget Perun

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

@@23uhr I've mentioned in the past that a collab with Perun would be amazing

[@NoGoodHandlesComingToMind]

13:12, "sunk cost fallacy fallacy" is the most important insight to come from YT in the year so far. KZbinrs love to shoehorn it into too many contexts, where it's usually not a sound application of the concept. They do something similar with Occam's Razor; conveniently attributing it to whichever opinion they already like without realizing that they're transparently employing it as a vehicle for lazily shutting down counterpoints.

[@Birthday92sex]

Isn’t the latter part confirmation bias?

[@royalhydra9790]

@@Birthday92sex It's probably confirmation bias in how it's misused. But I'm pretty sure Occam's Razor is used to say the simplest answer is the correct one. Maybe

[@neoxperson7858]

Fun(or not so fun)fact: The Battle of Bakhmut has been going on for 306 days now and has beat the Battle of Verdun (with 302/303 days) as the longest active battle in history.

[@cool06alt]

It's not that weird that we got to see every features from WW1 warfare in Ukraine.

[@draco84oz]

Could you also count the Siege of Sarajevo? Technically lasted from 5 April 1992 - 29 February 1996, or 1425 days

[@SlavicCelery]

@@draco84oz A siege is a bit different than an active battle. Considering, sans civvies, combat losses from both sides averaged out to under 6 troops per day for both sides combined. Civilians lost ~3.8 people per day. Bakhmut, on the conservative estimates is over 300 KIA for both sides per day. Typically 2-3x causalities exist past KIA, so just total causalities is probably 900-1200 per day. Verdun averaged ~2450 casualties per day for both sides, with ~980 of those KIA. So Bakhmut in terms of KIA per day is about 1/3rd of what Verdun was... and that's just insane to think about. So it's just a different sort of thing. Some historic sieges eclipse over two decades in length.

[@F.R.E.D.D2986]

​@@SlavicCeleryWell, obviously a WW1 battle had more losses than a modern battle.

[@andrewgault8076]

Bakhmut was attacked because it was the easiest target to attack, meaning it was the one point which was easier to resupply. If you see a transit map, the city is an interception from the highway, train and roads that is right at the end of russian held territory.

[@cheetonation]

If that was the easiest town, oof lmao

[@technokicksyourass]

If Russia is intending to win the war via attrition, then it doesn't matter where they attack, as long as they trade well enough. They traded 50k convicts for some amount of Ukrainian volunteers. So I guess from there point of view that's a success.

[@user-ju9kn5we1e]

Beautiful 😅

[@tuehojbjerg969]

@@technokicksyourass Russia lost tens of thousands of regulars also and it was not a even exchange rather a 1:4 or even better for the ukrainians, also teh death to injured ratio is massivly higher for russian than ukrainian since russia tended to leave their injured to die

[@petriew2018]

@@tuehojbjerg969 there's also the frankly perverse number of known vehicle kills that grossly favor Ukraine, which is more crippling to the Russian army than anything else. They've never put much stock in the individual soldier, all their offense punch was in their armored formations.... what Russia actually lost in Bakhmut may have been it's ability to do basically anything offensive for the duration of this war, since they already seem to have no idea what to do besides sit and wait for Ukraine to decide where to attack them.

[@PureEvilCake]

Surprised to hear you mention Drummondville from my home province...really puts that war into perspective There's no way this war is sustainable for Russia

[@oldernu1250]

Right. The experts who wax over long suffering Russia have never had shortages in grocery stores. In modern war logistics matter, rifles not so much. Russia never planned for this: fail to plan, plan to fail.

[@Jolluna]

Hearing Drummondville made my ears perk en titi!

[@mitchyoung93]

@@oldernu1250 Not sure of your point but there are no shortages in Russian grocery stores. There's literally dozens of Russian and in Russian foreign vloggers who can show you that right here on KZbin.

[@mitchyoung93]

Well, Prigozhin estimates that the Ukrainians lost twice the manpower Wagner did in Artyomsk. Russia has from four to six times the population of Ukraine (hard to tell since Ukraine hasn't had a real census for 20 years). Maybe figure for whom the war is less sustainable based on that.

[@JANFU_Nova]

It doesn't have to be sustainable, they have to hold out longer than Ukraine can get aid lmao. the world won't stay in this war forever, Western aid WILL dry up. Especially after America finds another 3rd world country to -bully and invade- deliver democracy to

[@axl1002]

If Putin sees the average Russian as enemy or as dangerous beast at least, removing some from the table maybe looks a good move for him. Stalin did it all the time and we know how much Putin respect him.

[@ems4884]

Stalin was violently paranoid. But that was the Soviet political system. Backstabbing everywhere. Oddly, one of the ways the Soviets could not quite get rid of the ways of the czars. Palace intrigue became Kremlin intrigue. Putin isn't above any of that. I'm certain it's already occurring. I dare say, i can imagine him actually enjoying it. He's an old KGB man, after all.

[@nicklibby3784]

​@@ems4884 😱🤯😱Wait, really?!!?!?!!!😮😯😲 You think so?😦😦 This is really true?!?!? 😧😧😨😨😰😬

[@tranvinhnhat1289]

@@ems4884 Fear, paranoia and greed killing the person soul. Putin has no humanity inside him.

[@LaGrandeBayou]

axl All evidence points to Puppetskyy and his SBU Ukrainian regime is killing off lots of people. When will Suchi do a 'special military inquiry' on the highly suspicious helicopter crash of Ukraines' interior ministry? His whole staff onboard reportedly were hit by a rocket to 'disappear them'..? Thanks in advance. " On 18 January 2023, a Ukrainian Eurocopter EC225 Super Puma carrying ten people, including Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrsky, his deputy Yevhen Yenin, and State Secretary Yurii Lubkovych, crashed into a kindergarten in Brovary, a suburb of Kyiv, Ukraine. "

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

that's funny

[@francissoulard6874]

I am born in Drummondville, Québec... a little peaceful town and I didn't know before you compared it to Bakhmout that those 2 towns were the same size... People who lived in Bakhmout just diserve to live their lives in peace just like the ones in Drummondville.

[@GloryToComradeForster]

I can't tell you how much I enjoy your videos. Serious and yet has some humor in it.

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

The dry wit & hidden gems are a bonus. 😜

[@TheOracle0fReason]

You had a really great analogy with the casino, well done!

[@IanDoesMagic]

You just keep topping yourself with the quality of your videos. Thank you for the enormous amount of care and effort you put into educating us.

[@randomguy418]

Another point for why Russia also didn't choose to attack in Zaporizhzhia is because they tried once, and failed. They attempted an offensive at Orikhiv early in the winter, but were bogged down and even pushed back.

[@jackthorton10]

Exactly

[@tatianaes3354]

It was not a real offensive, it was a skirmish. RU’s priority is DPR first. Also, RU is mainly on defensive since it lessens losses.

[@petriew2018]

@@tatianaes3354 we know we know, every time russia fails it's totally just a feint. Good little vatnik, you're following the party line to a t.

[@maarten1115]

Balhmut wasn't their only offensive attempt, it's just their only (semi) succesful attempt. Vuhledar was such a disaster that they stopped trying immediately.

[@amazingdany]

Russia still controls Bakhmut for and until now. 🤞

[@colorlesscircle5743]

Hey bud, it's been two days since you posted this comment, and nazistan lost 15% of what they captured in Bahkmut over... 10 months? Good effort

[@maarten1115]

@@colorlesscircle5743 Not sure what you're mad about. My comment wasn't exactly pro russian or anything.

[@colorlesscircle5743]

@@maarten1115 Sorry if I came off as upset, I wasn't, I was just stating an interesting fact. We've all kinda known its gonna happen, it's just nice to see it happen.

[@ollybears7797]

@@maarten1115 reread his comment, obviously an older gentleman being friendly, the use of bud has a negative connotation nowadays lol I assumed the same as u

[@gerhardphann]

As always, an excellent analysis. Thank you very much for that.

[@brendenhickman4198]

Always good to see an upload from you :)

[@gimmethegepgun]

Don't forget the role that factionalism in the Russian military has to play. Putin may have okayed the Bakhmut plans due to the reasons stated, but the bizarre amount of resources and manpower spent on it is at least partially explained by factions within the Russian military who are interested in their own personal power rather than the aims of the Russian state or Putin himself. Namely, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Being the only one seemingly competent enough to get any gains at all gives him a lot of personal power, gained at the expense of the state in the form of lives and equipment thrown away for barely any gains. And that influence gives him the power to direct more resources towards Bakhmut to continue making gains despite horrendous losses. And, by making himself the public face of Russian advances, it becomes dangerous to get rid of him, or to deny him what he needs to make those gains. Factionalism is amazing at destroying military capability. But it's vital to many autocratic states, in order to prevent coups, because by pitting them against each other, they won't be able to muster enough of the military to succeed at a coup.

[@nineteen-sixty-nine9373]

You need a history lesson my friend!

[@gandydancer9710]

There is in fact no reliable way of determining the losses of either side. The Russian attack on Bakhmut makes perfect sense if you don't assume that Ukrainian propaganda is the truth and instead assume that the losses on each side are comparable.

[@gimmethegepgun]

@@gandydancer9710 You'd have to be a moron to assume that losses in a yearlong attritional battle would be comparable between the attacker and defender. Assaulting always results in much higher casualties unless the attacker is overwhelming, which obviously isn't the case given how long it took.

[@rogerwilco2]

The Wagner official figures alone for Bakhmut are higher than what the Soviet Union lost in ten years in Afghanistan. It might have cost Russia many times more if you include their army, LPR/DPR and the other PMCs.

[@gordondwyer3641]

Total BS.

[@0816M3RC]

​@@gordondwyer3641 Prove that it is "Total BS".

[@tuehojbjerg969]

@@gordondwyer3641 Well wagner admitts to losing 20000 and we know vdv, regular russian army and both LPR and DPR was there to, DPR have admitted publically to ahve lost over 12000 dead and close to 70000 injured on all fronts since the war started

[@robbrown4621]

Very true but the SU probably lied about their real numbers of loss.

[@Skyhanger]

@@gordondwyer3641 Total BS is Soviet Union official losses in Afghanistan.

[@drew2276]

Great insights William. I always look forward to your videos, cheers!

[@booya8789]

You already have to know this. Thanks for the high quality professor and professionalism with your content. I wish you all the best with your future endeavors in higher education. Thank you putting these together and documenting all these events.

[@rosalindmallory6570]

Fascinating. Thank you so much.

[@lydiazafra3476]

Thank you William, love your analysis always waiting for your podcast , blessings take care may Ukraine be victorious soon and peace and freedom rings …

[@TheDarksideFNothing]

Omg dude those jeopardy categories!!!! HAHAHAHAHA Your sense of humor is fun and the delivery makes it that much better. As if the joke your cracking is no different from the actual serious point from the prior sentence. Really enjoying the series! Keep it up!!!

[@MikeM-qb9qh]

Great report and wonderful visuals!

[@evensoul2010]

"It's a Bakhmut point" was gold

[@jimpaek]

I did not expect a Drummondville reference in a Ukraine War video...

[@mikec518]

The Bakhmut of Quebec

[@jrmbvn]

@@mikec518 LOL

[@jrmbvn]

yeah im from there, so that was surprising to say the least

[@frischifrisch6860]

Your additional explanation regarding the calendar is great, cool video 👍

[@benoithudson7235]

Discussing the destruction of Drummondville and Putin in the same sentence suggests @William Spaniel might be from Victoriaville.

[@robax3r]

Faut être québécois pour la pogner cette joke la lol

[@JeRefuseDeBienPrononcerBaleine]

@@robax3r M'a être honnête avec toi, je la catch pas trop celle là.

[@DJKayRozen]

@@JeRefuseDeBienPrononcerBaleine faut connaitre son histoire de la poutine.

[@JeRefuseDeBienPrononcerBaleine]

@@DJKayRozen Of fuck, ce bout là. J'avais juste oublié.

[@yanongkristohanonmusic7695]

This channel is the best among the Vloggers. The commentary is superb backing it up with academic notes.

[@christinap.8539]

Thank you for this review!

[@schakalix]

Hello Sir! I love this format, please keep it up! All the best from Hong Kong! 🇭🇰

[@connorbrooks7501]

Hi. I really appreciate the bits of alliteration you throw into these videos. Keep up the great work.

[@skogsjarvenab7958]

@ William Spaniel Your analysis is excellent, what you forget is that now russia can have a referendum in Bakhmut where they will get a 100% vote for Putin.

[@em_the_bee]

Well they could do that earlier as well And then say it's always been Russian, and everything else is fake news western propaganda. The target audience of their news will believe it anyway, and no one else will give a shit anyway

[@maddskillz5177]

He is so biased, its not analysis.

[@theoriginaldemiurge]

@@maddskillz5177 found the putin supporter.

[@longkesh1971]

@@theoriginaldemiurge I don't support Putin but its no different than NATO in Libya or US in Syria. So, yes the conversation is biased unless we're going to be consistent.

[@denillefleming2942]

There is nothing left in Bakhmut. Maybe 110 people.

[@esra_erimez]

Dude, this is dope. I'm down with your content.

[@thomastannler3875]

Mr Spaniel your reporting is superb. Thank you for making it easier to understand. Tom

[@sudarshanarajagopal716]

This guy makes some of the best content on this topic

[@MarkMuhammad190]

This guy and Perun

[@sosomelodies659]

Putin made a gamble all right. He wanted to be remembered as the leader who reunited all the lost territories after the fall of the Soviet Union. He was on a roll too. Chechnya and Belarus was in his Palms. He currently has troops in Georgia and Transnistria. He then seized Crimea. Then came Luhansk, Donestk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Now his plans are falling apart because he didn't expect the west to be so heavily invested in Ukraine.

[@WangAiHua]

Don't forget his troops were also in Nagorno-Karabakh and Syria! Briefly in Kazakhstan until China demanded that he pull his troops out form there!

[@hankjones3527]

Fair call.

[@GwainSagaFanChannel]

Do not forget Chechnyans in exile went to join the Ukranian army to fight Russia same goes for other minorities who escaped Russia and even Russians themselves

[@abdel-qadeercoubadja4750]

How's the situation in Soledar ??? And where is budanov ???

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Don't worry, Transnistria will link with Odessa when in falls to the Russian Army in late summer.

[@sirclifforddrakemalcolmjac5870]

I REALLY liked your jeopardy categories!!😆😆 also i like all the alliteration!!

[@graemedicks6938]

Really enjoyed this, thank you.

[@Hexagonian]

I wasn't expecting Drummondville to be such an important part of this discussion AT ALL lmao

[@ychentt]

I gotta say, today's video has the best visuals so far. Kudos to whoever edited it and to Professor Spaniel yourself!

[@Gametheory101]

Thanks! The videos are 100% me.

[@OgreKev]

​@@Gametheory101 this is the one channel I can't have on just "in the background". Love the Easter Eggs.

[@christianvincentcostanilla8428]

Make a video : Is Ukraine army is more like America Army and Britain's Army

[@denis2630]

Every youtuber is now a master strategist. What a time to be alive. Here's a like 👍

[@GrosTabarnak]

That's the best mention of Drummondville I've ever seen in an international war coverage analysis.

[@Wallyworld30]

One reason you didn't mention that Russia want's Bakhmut is it's the location of the Soledar salt mine. IMO this is why Yevgeny Prigozhin wanted Bakhmut so badly. This mine is extremely valuable and he could either take ownership of it or sell it off to another Russian Oligarch. It's not strategically useful but Prigozhin is profit driven and if his choices were down to just 3 cities it makes sense he'd take the one he could profit from most.

[@zeriel9148]

Eh that seems pretty sketchy. The chances of holding it long term are pretty low unless you win the war overall. You'd be better off (by far) just conquering large swathes of the country successfully and chopping it up later than making a pyrrhic suicide charge on one place that is temporarily sort of valuable if the war would end... so you never get any profits from it anyway because you lose.

[@Stephenc35753]

Doesn't matter though if you won't be keeping it in the end.

[@TheLumberjack1987]

I don't buy that this mine is somehow worth all the men and material that was spent to control it. And that's not even considering that the infrastructure around it is in shambles. It's also not the 15th century anymore where a salt mine has this giant value somehow.

[@RobinTheBot]

Yeah this is a really strange take... Such resources cannot be exploited in a warzone.

[@Noel-ji8nm]

@@TheLumberjack1987 Ukraine wasted 5 months trying to defend Bakhmut with literally everything they had. 80% of all available Ukrainian artillery was deployed at Bakhmut, this meant that Ukraine lost the ability to make moves elsewhere on the front as they were busy, funnelling every bit of material they had into the fight. Worst yet is even with all of this, they still ended up losing the town despite constant reinforcement all the way until they had no more territory left. Bakhmut was a horrible loss for Ukraine, and it just goes to show how efficient Wagner and the Russian army are at storming fortified positions, although this was mainly thanks to their massive artillery and especially air power advantage. Russian jets patrolled Bakhmut without any threat as Ukrainian air defence systems were too spread out.

[@Youtube_is_Trash]

As someone who actually went to Drummondville 💀💀💀

[@A1esund]

Bruh what’s the odds I’m forme Drummondville

[@alexhubble]

Excellent once again👍

[@VeritasOmniaVincit176]

Like the old saying “don’t pick up a fight with someone who has nothing to lose”

[@juancarlostoro7929]

Yea, It is ukraine,

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Don't pick with a fight with someone who has everything to lose. Especially if they have nuclear weapons and outnumber you 10 to 1.

[@StayPrimal]

I really hope there will be lines in this video

[@oriontigley5089]

7:00 *WOO!*

[@Gametheory101]

Lines in the video, and the first comment goes to you as well!

[@StephenRWilliams]

We had to wait several minutes for the lines, but boy was it worth it!

[@TheVideoRaf]

Great analysis!!!🙂

[@mordreddelavirac]

This guy is like a Mentat from Dune. Love your videos, man!

[@MarkM001]

Love the math dude, particularly logarithmic description of the limit of happiness.

[@psielemental]

How plausible would it to say "Putin threw away the troops so they can't revolt against him." ? You think thats insane, and yeah we are talking about Putin.

[@stocazz9743]

that would be a monstrous action but not unexpected of him tbh

[@notyetidentified9720]

There can be a relatively easy explenation to the entire "Bachmut sunk cost fallacy" conundrum. The attack vector toward Kiyv, as well as a lot of other operations, require a significent deployment of Russian military forces. On the other hand the city fighting in Bachmut could mostly be done by Wagner - yes, at a significant manpower cost, but that manpower came from sources the military couldn't use anyway. This creates a situation in which from military's perspective, as well as from political perspective, the "cost" of fighting for Bachmut was acceptable for Russia. Similar situation couldn't be achived outside of Bachmut, at least not yet - Wagner isn't capable of taking on "open field" battles and isn't integrated well enough with Russian military to replace its infantry in offensive operations in the field. In short the Russian military has to first create conditions suitable for Wagner's deployment by forcing relatively slow and entrenched fighting within short distances.

[@glenn3948]

Great work William.

[@russellbenning240]

Good as usual,thanks

[@andrarias]

I think the reason Russia focused on Bakhmut was mainly because that's where the Wagner Group was assigned (maybe by lottery from among the other cities) and Prigozhin wanted to show Putin (and probably the world too - we've seen how vocal he has been) the power of his militia, and by doing so, gaining power and recognition. I don't think the salt mine is the reason, because otherwise Prigozhin wouldn't hand over the area to the Russian Army.

[@khalidsagmani6456]

Prigozhin installed himself as Russia's new president Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. If you make your enemy angry, then you are doing a great job Putin is lost, a loser, and the world champion in misjudgment. Putin is totally and truly insane. The tyrant and the dictator bet on the power of tyranny in human losses and the military machine as long as the regime is still in place.

[@nicklibby3784]

I think it is more because Bakmhut is a convenient connection point between the north east front and the south west front. Then like you said already, the competition between Wagner and Russian generals/officers made them desperate for a victory there which caused them to inflate or overestimate or exaggerate the strategic importance of the city. And the very simple fact it is a place to fight, with no civilians left to worry about and no buildings to worry about destroying (for the most part). Bakmhut is just a convenient place where the 2 sides can fight each other, a place where large groups of soldiers are located which makes it the place to go if you want to fight and decrease the number of enemy soldiers. So that's the 3rd reason I think: It is just a convenient place to fight if you wanna take out as many enemy soldiers as possible. And the civillians and buildings are gone, so it is just a big battlefield where can purely focus on reducing your enemies numbers. Think of it like how old armies in the 1700s and 1800s, even in WW1 and WW2 would just meet together in a big open field to fight each other and battle it out. The open field has no strategic importance really, they could've chose to fortify a city or the fields surrounding the city close by. But nope, instead of doing all that, they just chose to battle it out and instead of destroying their city fighting there to go fight in a big field. It is also just a meeting point for both sides where they can fight each other directly. Many of the biggest ww1 and ww2 battles happened in a completely empty or desolate area with very little value or strategic value at all, but they fought there because it just happened to be the converging point where both sides happened to meet each other therefore became the place to fight.

[@petriew2018]

@@gags730 when you know this little about reality, you really should stay off the internet, it's bad for one's dignity.

[@WangAiHua]

I agree with you---here is my take! I am sure that there will be people who are well able to analyze strategic reasons or geographic reasons or tactical reasons why Bakhmut was a prime focus of attack----But my thesis is that it was solely due to the fact that Bakhmut had to be assigned to someone and it happened to be assigned to Wagner! Bakhmut happened because of the mercenary army---Wagner was used! A mercenary army requires money and ammunition but also an additional incentive---Bonus!--This is the nature of pay for hire! Wagner was to take Bakhmut and get a bonus payment upon successful completion within a certain time period (probably May 9 at the latest?)! Prighozhin thus readily and wantonly threw his forces in to achieve that goal!---Suffering heavy losses and very slow progress, he recruited prisoners to fill up his wave attacks to complete the task on time (bonus). He failed, constantly claiming victory (to get the bonus), and finally he was forced to ask for RuZZian Army help "on the flanks". He came very close to achieving his goal but the question was whether or not he alone or only with the help of the RuZZian Army was "achieving" that goal! May 9 came and went and no bonus---because Bakhmut was still not 100% taken, and even if he had taken it it would not have happened without the help of the RuZZian Army!---Of course he made up excuses---he was not supplied with enough ammunition---the RuZZian Army really did not help much--they were useless etc. Anyway--no bonus (Putler doesn't like to pay anyway) and so Prigozhin is pissed off--hence the rants! End of story!

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Is that it? Your insightful comeback? Another shill for the US military-industrial complex. Truth hurts. Suck it up.

[@Meekahel]

You mentionned Quebec! I live in Quebec!!! I'm starstruck!!

[@A1esund]

Moi aussi!!!

[@Stephen85]

That's how I was feeling about Florida. My town has about 100,000 to many residents to get picked for the example though.

[@AntonGermanReal]

Great video, William

[@Darca1n]

Something also notable with the casualties suffered in Bakhmut is that the kreml can only conscript so many people before they start to run dry on how many they can pull before serious questions start to be asked by the relatives and families of those conscripted, especially as rural villages empty out and they have to pull from more and more central cities. Simply put, the more they recruit, the more unrest they risk, especially as it is so plain to see to most that russia does not care for its soldiers enough to even train them sufficiently, let alone actually provide them with proper supplies.

[@bababert8488]

My theory is that with so many independent militaries operating from Russia and it already being reported that fights have been broken out between the mercenaries because of responsibility and blame games, there is a real threat that these militaries could turn on the Kremlin so to say. It kinda already happened with the attacks on Belgorod by self-proclaimed separatists. It is necessary for the current regime to eliminate this threat by quite literary leaving them in battle and have them sustain heavy losses.

[@jackthorton10]

Thus leads to a crossing of the Rubicon?

[@khalidsagmani6456]

Witness the intense clash between two figures of the Russian terrorist war against Ukraine, Prigozhyn and Kadyrov, as they claim victories and shift blame in a relentless power struggle . The public war erupts between Prigozhyn and Kadyrov Is this already the civil war or just its beginning? .

[@josephsouther9874]

7:55 #wheresputin top left corner on final black and white image

[@rogirek3362]

That Jeopardy graphic was on point.

[@benjaminhansen5023]

The timing was super ironic: Right as you said, the Kremlin had two options, an ad came on saying a house or a laptop. I guess, listening with ads can be funny too. Thanks for making super detailed videos. they’re great.

[@andoxviii]

Dude - the map you show as Bakhmut at 12:15 is actually Melitopol 😅 how did you manage to do that with that city not even in the conversation...?

[@andoxviii]

Well....At least it is in Ukraine...that's a win, right guys?

[@NoneOfYourBeesWax1]

You are very good at your job.

[@Sergio-gm4bg]

Exceptional coverage

[@matias49938]

14:59 Great clip! Tnx!🤠

[@uingaeoc3905]

Bakhmut is typical of Soviet-russian military tactics "Always reinforce failure. There is no level of unacceptable casualties."

[@alessandrobenvenuti6551]

“The risk was calculated, but goddam’… Am I bad at math.” Cit. Prigozhin after shitting on Shojgu

[@michelvalois2325]

Curious why you choose Drummondville as an exemple 🙂 great video

[@tokiwartooth6835]

Your my favorite creator right now man!!!! Love when your shit drops!!

[@akira28shima32]

I wonder if we’ll get a video on “sunk cost fallacy fallacy, fallacy”.

[@ralphemerson497]

We here in the West can Monday Morning Quarterback Putin’s decisions all day. But it’s difficult to justify the continued incompetence on behalf of the entire Russia military complex. So let’s say Putin won the most of his Ukrainian objectives. He never had sufficient manpower to maintain and defend the captured areas. He would need a million man army to fight and defend his wins. Russia never had the manpower. We’ll see that soon if Ukraine opens several different offensives area areas of attack. Hell, Russia doesn’t have the manpower to protect its common borders with Ukraine. It’s going to get very ugly for Russia in a few weeks.

[@0815Snickersboy]

Manpower is one of the few things that russia has an advantage over in this war.

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Oh yes, this is the 10,000 Ukrainian v 100,000 Russian dead scenario? "Russia doesn't have the manpower" - seriously?

[@richardkut3976]

Nice rundown.

[@phillipneal8194]

Excellent analysis

[@SageofIrrelevance]

If Russia and Ukraine truely are one nation, then there is a fairly simple solution. Instead of Russia annexing Ukraine, Ukraine should annex Russia. Problem solved.

[@gordondwyer3641]

Well that is obviously what America are trying to achieve through their Ukrainian puppet.

[@ZootyZoFo]

It’s hilarious seeing all the 3rd world Z-Boi’s celebrating Russia taking 9 months to take the 56th largest city in Ukraine while taking 75,000+ casualties when Ukraine recaptured Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson, Izyum, Lyman, Kupiansk, Balakliia and many other cities in just weeks. Russia spent all that time, equipment & lives to take a town who’s only military significance was 4 roads and a railway that are still under Ukrainian control as are the flanks. 😂

[@paulgibbon5991]

I don't know if it was intended, but stealing Russia's thunder with the raid inside their borders was perfectly timed.

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

If you mean providing MSM with some headlines on the night that Bakhmut fell to the Russians.....job done. If you mean achieving real tactical success. Er, no. Doing a good job of bringing Russians over to Putin though. Nothing like invoking the Great Patriotic War to ensure Russia grinds you to dust.

[@lead7419]

Your videos are top notch

[@asan1050]

William Spaniel..Thanks Much!

[@Self-replicating_whatnot]

This war so far was pure suck, but here's hoping that when it ends Putin will be completely ruined and so will be his legacy.

[@pootincopes]

Already is. He could have gone down as one of the greatest statesman in history. Not now.

[@Self-replicating_whatnot]

@@pootincopes The worst injustice possible would be him losing the war but managing to somehow weasel out of responsibility for the defeat and remaining in power.

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Don't worry, when he remains in power it won't be defeated.

[@pootincopes]

@@Self-replicating_whatnot agreed

[@ericconnor8419]

You seem to have circular logic re: Bakhmut 'The reason Russia focused there is because that is where they made gains'. That is where they made gains because that is where they concentrated most of their assault forces and heavy equipment. If Wagner had been elsewhere they would probably have gained more. You have focused on strategy but ignored resources, I think they concentrated there because they want the natural resources in that area, ie Prighozin wanted the salt mines in Soledar. He was probably hoping to use it as a base for his attempt at power in Russia.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

Russian military doctrine is based on reinforcing gains. It's still on the older Soviet deep battle model where they know they can't do complex manoeuvres like NATO/Ukraine. They attack in a lot of places that is calculated to have a high chance of success or if they have enough an entire front like in WW2 and pour people into breeches. The simplicity is the goal and assumes you have more meat than the other guy. Russia continued attacking partly because it considers Wagner free meat, they don't count towards MOD casualty figures. Wagner have their own reasons to attack. MOD have their own reasons to support and not support the attack. The mistake everyone makes is thinking there is only one reason, and Russia's dumbness, off battlefield politics makes it harder to figure out. Russia does what makes sense to Russia and is not obligated to make sense to us.

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Russians measure "gains" in terms of dead bodies and machinery. Not "territory". When the Ukrainian Army is dead, then the Russians move.

[@ozhaver4027]

Brilliant!🎉

[@williamlloyd3769]

Bakhmut fixed a lot of Russian forces in place over winter and spring including Wagner. Better to have Russian resources degraded before the Ukrainian offensive. Wonder how this will play out in the end. PS - What an incredible waste of lives and materiel to both sides.

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

MUD fixed forces. That mud is now dry. The new Russian brigades will move in the next week

[@gabfelippi]

what about bakhmut was a strategy in the bakhmut-izium axis and after the izium fall they just didnt know what to do and just followed the old strategy in case they recapture izium again and would be able to do the pincering in the northeast?

[@gabfelippi]

ok that after the anexation, this was not so feasable since izium was not in the new russians territories, but still seemed a general strategy

[@h.lalnunnema6860]

Good explanation.

[@brycechristensen2296]

I love the Jeopardy categories at 7:23.

[@TheMrProboscis]

Imagine a world where Russia was friendly to the west. Would be so awesome

[@seanp9277]

Imagine a world where the West was friendly to Russia

[@captainmcawesome7908]

​@@seanp9277 Imagine thinking that the west did not offer its hand to russia and that russia did not spit on it like a spoiled brat

[@seanp9277]

@@captainmcawesome7908 That's some fantastical thinking.

[@mivan5652]

Never gonna happen

[@giovannibedoui4839]

​​@@captainmcawesome7908laughs in US wanting to destroy Russia since 1919*

[@moneysins]

Imagine if the heavy bet on Bakhmut eventually costs Putin Crimea… Super unlikely for sure but what if

[@Wallyworld30]

I don't think Ukraine taking Crimea is super unlikely. It put their odds at 47.4% at getting it back.

[@ryovanderpool2216]

seems reasonable to me, especially if Ukraine destroys the land bridge into Crimea. Then it would be just a matter of time before Russians in Crimea lose ammunition, food, and other supplies necessary to hold Crimea

[@adoatero5129]

- "Imagine if the heavy bet on Bakhmut eventually costs Putin Crimea…" It may, but unfortunately we will never know whether it did or not, even if Ukraine takes back Crimea.

[@Wallyworld30]

@@adoatero5129 If Russia loses Crimea I can guarantee you history books will say Russia losing 70k-100k men at Bakhmut was a major factor.

[@user-rj4gu5oh3k]

@@ryovanderpool2216lmfao look at the images of Russian fortifications in Zaporizhia

[@bombfog1]

Will there be an audio version of your book in the future?

[@piotrch0]

I can't with the jeopardy categories! 😂

[@proxyicarcus]

LOL that "map" that putin pulled out, actually labels Ukraine as "COUNTRY OF UKRAINIAN KOZAKS". Its too funny, the russian media played that clip once and then were told to not reply it anymore once they realized. Putin: "Ukraine was always part of Russia, lets see... oh no, according to this map, Ukraine defeated our invasion force and actually burned down the Kremlin in retaliation when we tried to send a second invasion force? Damn it, lets not look at this document anymore"

[@WangAiHua]

Don't forget that there was also NO RUZZIA marked on the map---only Muscovy-----only changed its name in 1721!

[@andrejsurdevics6476]

@@WangAiHua And look how the Muscovy State (very small in 1640) expanded into the world's largest country. It was by tormenting, invading, subjugating and annexing all of their neighbouring states. Nothing has changed.

[@Noogleminus]

You know the stuff you do? You know the stuff you (likely) did for the USG? With the fragmentation of the military and the culture within Russia, it seems possible that this hasn't been happening. This is especially true after the liquidation of several offices within the Russian government (MoD, FSB, etc.). It's possible that this is a sunk cost fallacy that has progressed beyond idiocy due to ignorance of the costs. They know they've lost too much to stop, but they don't know exactly what the numbers are. It's like a person that is afraid to check their bank account. They know they're in trouble, but they keep spending because they don't know how bad it is. Russia's movement kind of seems analogous to a bad chess game. We're having trouble understanding why Russia is making the moves it is. It's almost like Russia fired all the grand masters and we're actually playing against a 3rd grader. The urge to drop this line of thought is strong; underestimating an aggressor can lead to devastating consequences. This said, many of the issues we've seen seem unlikely to be born of anything other than idiocy or ignorance.

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

That must be it. You are a chess genius and the Russians got it wrong.🤣

[@Noogleminus]

@@ccc_the_painful_truth We're always open to new information. You appear to disagree. So what is the correct answer?

[@ccc_the_painful_truth]

Exactly as you said, just turn it 180 degrees. Bakhmut was a trap. Zelensky walked into it. 50,000 Ukrainians will not walk out. I see comments from supposed Russian bots explaining why Russia will beat Ukraine, and go on to confront NATO with the help of China, Iran and the BRICS in due course. It was never about Ukraine. Just a proxy. I'm certainly not ruling out the US starting WW3 to save Biden's embarrassment. Russians and other great civilisations think in terms of centuries, not the next election cycle. They have gold, metals, oil, gas etc etc. The only answer from the Western TV lounge-lizards is "stoopid Russians", " Putin is evil", etc etc. The only question left is will Zelensky's helicopter be big enough to lift out all his money - Karzai had to leave some behind when he fled Afghanistan!

[@richardburgess8657]

Quality stuff… as always. Thank you. 😎