Mike Wilson on Relative Strength and Rotations in the Stock Market | On The Tape Investing Podcast

Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley is back for his quarterly appearance! We discuss Nvidia earnings becoming a big macro event, the AI gold rush, finding relative value, interest rates, active vs. passive investing, the labor market, bank stocks, energy stocks left for dead, similarities to the late ‘90s, when valuation matters, the election.
0:00 - AI Gold Rush
10:15 - Small Caps
12:50 - Yields
26:00 - Labor Market
28:00 - Banks
31:15 - Energy
34:20 - 90's Comps
48:15 - Valuations
50:30 - Election & Geopolitics
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About the Show:
On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.
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[@joelschumacher8028]

As good a podcast as I have ever listened to. Four well-spoken, extremely intelligent men having a sophisticated conversation about financial markets that could be understood by the general investing public. Thank you, gentleman. BTW....always love the music references, Guy. I'm a child of 70s and 80s rock and roll. One of the best parts of the cast.

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Thanks for listening

[@KarenLavia]

I am trying to avoid making any new buys at this point in other not to get sucked into a bear market trap.It's tough making money in stocks when institutional investors are the driving force behind the selling.. although I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?

[@Suleferdinand]

Focus on two key objectives. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns around.I recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financial advisor.

[@tatianastarcic]

I agree, reason I have all my invt-decisions ran through a coach on a daily-basis, it’s been 3years and counting and I’ve grown over $2million in gains, my coach's-analysis so far has steered me off losses and troubled waters and guided me make the most off major-breakthroughs in the mrkt, and esp. in this downtrend, her safe haven asset- trading, short-selling, ETF shorting skill-set are very essential..

[@CraigLloyd-fz6ns]

I've been thinking of going that route, been holding a bunch of stocks that keeps tanking and I don't know if to keep holding or just dump them, think you coach could aid me with portfolio-restructuring?

[@tatianastarcic]

Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@GeorgeDean-km3wm]

I just looked up this person out of curiosity, and surprisingly she seems really proficient. I thought this was just some overrated BS, I appreciate this.

[@DorathyJoy]

I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[@EdwinSolomon-zs3nz]

Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown

[@Jersderakerguoe]

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

[@Stellaanderson-qx5nl]

this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@Jersderakerguoe]

My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@Suleferdinand]

she actually appears to be well-read and educated. I just did a Google search for her name and found her webpage, I appreciate you sharing

[@Casey-summer]

Nice pod, I agree that AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA last year.

[@louie-rose7]

I bought NVIDIA around September because my financial advisor recommended it to me. She said the company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return this year.

[@disney-hefner]

That's a great analogy and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trend that is difficult for the untrained eyes to see.

[@Buffet-walton22]

​ *@disney-hefner* That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this consultant?

[@disney-hefner]

Gertrude Margaret Quinto, is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@BaileyHoward101]

I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.

[@sommersalt88]

Is the stock market actually getting better or is this the regular start of the year market manipulation to entice new investors? I'm currently sitting on an inheritance of 500k and i'm wondering do I invest in stocks or Gold?

[@gagnepaingilly]

In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.

[@84gaynor]

The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds.

[@84gaynor]

Jessica Annabelle Rupp is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment

[@t6553gw]

Sit in cash and wait for August to go all in.

[@jays9870]

You know, if people would slow down to truly listen to Mike Wilson (and the hosts) they would recognize how important and meaningful these discussions can be to risk management. Cannot thank Team RR enough for these terrific updates being made available to the general population. 🙏

[@CoffiBot2dotoh]

Most people want sound bites not informative discussion

[@supanova4126]

If you listened to them you’d have made NO MONEY. Guy admits he missed this run. That’s why Mike got his ass fired.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

Thank God we have Dumb Nathan distributing his takes to the public 🙏

[@civillian888]

You kidding? If you took the time to listen to them, you would’ve been under performing or worse, losing money during this massive run!

[@27photogger]

@@supanova4126 no one could’ve predicted NVDA’s current price

[@Jay-jd1bi]

wilson really good at explaining what happened after the fact. real helpful

[@dwadholm1]

How can I sign up for your blog or newsletter?

[@jhull5870]

I'm surprised Wilson still has a job at MS.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

​@@jhull5870that's crony capitalism baby

[@Meishach2112]

He has 20/20 hindsight.

[@kiklocus4660]

you should take his job and save the world @@jhull5870

[@ozsurfs]

Mike and Dan will never be mistaken for motivational speakers.. Have to respect the consistency of the message!

[@mattmaddox9367]

Motivational speakers are also known as being a fount of truth of wisdom.

[@gailgoodman4104]

I listened to Mike Wilson all during 2023. I missed it. He scared me so bad that I missed it.

[@tbd1613]

He is the worst market forcaster in the world. You should have listened to Tom Lee. This guy is a total fool.

[@gregheinhomes]

This show should be called “Confusing You”

[@user-en5is4lr9v]

Dumb and dumber

[@annL5251]

Really love it when Wilson is on, have so much respect for this guy. Great interview.

[@rayflective]

Omg Wilson is still around 🙀

[@jeremiahmiller4640]

He’s working out of his moms basement now

[@SMTraz]

Time for a PermaBear therapy session! Can't imagine how much money these guys have lost since the Oct 2022 bottom.

[@MarkBlumenthal1]

exactly. Most people who were wrong about 2023 market, have now admitted they called it wrong, but these guys are still gloom. Well, maybe it was ok in mid October to be scared. But, it, sentiment changed end Oct into Nov, there will be no more rate hikes, and economy is strong.

[@Marrow9000]

Mike's bearishness 6 months ago and 12 months ago and 18 months ago scared retail investors and they missed out on S&P from 3600 to 5000 and QQQ gains of even more. It never went back down to 2400 like he was saying, not even close.

[@gregheinhomes]

Exactly!!!

[@kraz007]

Mike's alive?? Great ❤

[@SMTraz]

Alive, but demoted at Morgan Stanley.

[@gregheinhomes]

Mike terrified retail traders imo. In the end he said he was fully vested I believe. That’s why the small guys lose and the big banks win.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

I mean like 8 months ago he said he'd stay invested because you have to be...

[@gregheinhomes]

@@user-tc7ot8js2x he said after a long time and the market had ran up if I remember correctly

[@prolific1518]

MS has to stay invested or they would lose clients goofy.

[@nasok8472]

great podcast team to listen to as you take a nap:)

[@jhull5870]

Love reading the comments. I personally have stopped listening to Dan " What if " Nathan and Guy" Look, I've been wrong " Adami. They would be better off analyzing sports and or music. Still amazed that CNBC still has them on.

[@willberry6434]

Congrats on being right one a decade Mike!!

[@brianmcginity]

Great one. Mike is so on top of the markets. My thoughts: Small caps came and went like the March rate cut. The best of breed is still the best. Energy is the government's manipulation (Russia's price caps were just the tip of the iceberg) and the 10-year is still attractive to big money for now, although FOMO is making its rounds.

[@careerdog]

Nice. Better summary than AI could deliver!

[@swedesam]

Great pod with Mike, always a favorite.

[@robertlopez3100]

I’m done with listening to you all. Even a broken clock is right more often than you.

[@redbullmax662]

Let me know when was the last time Mike Wilson or any of these guys were right about anything.

[@user-en5is4lr9v]

Mike is good. Danny and Guy are just comedians.

[@dapred00]

As usual... We could also add Danny thinks the show is all about him being interviewed as he speaks way too much while nobody cares about his views.

[@Meishach2112]

You guys should get Ed Yardeni on the show. How bout someone who was actually RIGHT for a change.

[@user-yq7rr9lh9c]

Dan going "loudest people are one that don't get the game" and he's the loudest one and always wrong, this is poetic, what a sad pathological liar, unbelievable.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

Not pathological, but almost criminally dumb

[@petrihos]

Quick! Book Jeremy Grantham!

[@anderson6379]

MVP 🙌🙌🙌🙌 Thanks for your insights Mike

[@stevenot8382]

Mike Wilson Mr wrong of all times. 25% up Mike 25%.

[@g2zeec]

Nothing actionable here. "Valuation matters when it matters." Thanks guys. Once again, the only thing that matters is PRICE action, breadth and market structure. Heading over to The Compound.

[@gloriajaimesa2811]

one thing is clear : only mike is in the business of giving advice. You have an opinion until you have clients and responsabilities

[@reddragon3518]

If you want an example of a circular conversation this is it LMAO. It's word salad on a Friday. Pass the dressing 🥗. If you listen to Wilson he as been right all along partly cloudy is the same as partly sunny LMAO!

[@ocvegasproperty]

These guys analyze the shit out of the market and come out exactly wrong for how long now? 2 years?

[@Meishach2112]

Tells you something about the value of “analysis”

[@civillian888]

“You can’t run a fund with concentrated positions, but we are…” lmaooo

[@yimin2247]

great show!

[@donkeychan491]

I wonder what the potential 10x small/mid-cap resource stocks he mentioned are - any ideas?

[@mysteryman2405]

Misery loves company comes to mind here

[@civillian888]

The faces on these guys when Mike starts the show all bulled up lol

[@gregheinhomes]

Mike doesn’t know shit

[@astrogumbo]

Perfect timing Mike Thank you

[@birsha3986]

I like Mike accent ❤

[@Meishach2112]

“Fight the tape” -this show.

[@jwm702]

Here comes mike Wilson 😂😂

[@ColonialUnion93]

Didnt Mike get demoted for being too bearish for too long and costing his clients millions?

[@kraz007]

It's a side-motion... He's not the face and brains any more. He's the puppet master now.

[@gregheinhomes]

They probably lost millions

[@timjames1456]

Great hearing from Wilson. He doesn’t get them all right but he’s high quality. Dan please stop being such a Cassandra and tone down that new hand tick of turning a dial

[@siddharthadatta]

Bear conference

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

95 avg IQ conference

[@DEValentine]

Does Mike Wilson share his portfolio ideas with the public? That outperformance over the S&P 500 sounds interesting.

[@bigdog194]

And love me some: Danny Moses

[@aikankei]

Dan - What do you keep looking at that is more important than being engaged with the conversation? It's a negative feel for me, like you're disengaged...you know what I mean?

[@RiskReversalMedia]

He’s often looking at the market and looking at talking points

[@YS-ys1us]

OK, Mike Wilson is bearish on small caps. Time to all in IWM. :)

[@roger_rogers]

SHOW ME HOW MIKE WILSON BEAT THE S&P LAST YEAR NO FUCKING WAY, but great interview

[@fatal9998]

what wilson said about the 50 stocks making money and over fist in the 90's and we don't have that today needs to be repeated over and over and over and over again everywhere.

[@fhowland]

Is that a folding phone that Mike has?

[@t6553gw]

Here is my explanation for last August to October bond vigilante: that was a forth down wave collusion between market manipulator and treasure to shake out the weak hand before the final fifth wave so “they” can sell on the top

[@GrantLeeEdwards]

If you believe that, I’ve got some tin foil to sell you.

[@t6553gw]

@@GrantLeeEdwards you don’t buy what I said?

[@Jasmine-qj5gm]

Look at historical PEs of each index. Look at the debt that the US consumer holds related to the past. This is why people are bearish.

[@tomyi4177]

Dream team😮😮😮😂😂

[@yeedub]

Bear party🎉

[@travissmith9488]

One big bear party. Yipeee.

[@tonyb7275]

I mean people want to take shots at Mike Wilson but oh how everyone forgets how he nailed nailed 2022 in 2023 Tom Lee fashion while Tom Lee was wrong in 2022, plus Mike Wilson has names he's been bullish on that have exploded live Accenture, but everyone paints him with the perma bear brush whos always wrong and thats totally not the case.

[@atun77]

oh Lord, the 4 perma bears! misguiding people for years

[@georgesand6958]

I sort of wish the conversation had taken off from what Danny Moses was saying.

[@astrogumbo]

14:40 !!!!!

[@vinmantrader4450]

OK but MW made high conviction calls on SPY severla times including early 2023 and late 2024 that were most certainly inaccurate. Everyone know this, why hide. So he has done well for his clients, that's nice.

[@mobetter9353]

matching bear shoes 😂

[@akshayananda410]

Mike Wilson should be investigated by SEC.

[@astrogumbo]

My own opinion is that the BOJ should be catching flack. Only country in the world at lower bound. Time to be labeled manipulative

[@dwadholm1]

If the Russel breaks out, it's game on.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

When, not if.

[@patrickyim1258]

Ok now that Mike is sounding bullish, the market crash is near!

[@user-yq7rr9lh9c]

Not good to be contrarian in a bull market just cause of some finance guy, even if it's Mike Wilson, market will go down(not crash) only when everyone is super bullish, not just this guy.

[@motap001]

You got that right

[@gregheinhomes]

I think having him on is disrespectful to viewers

[@harry4503]

Mike has been bruised badly by his 2023 bearish call. He is not going to make same mistake again by getting it wrong.

[@prolific1518]

​@@user-yq7rr9lh9c one sector doesn't create a bull market lil buddy. Keep betting on Biden to save you 😉

[@jzhng250]

Dan the clown always clicking on his laptop during these interviews. Looking like he’s the genius when he’s the biggest clown. Out of all of them.

[@utubeuser5312]

Describing illegal foreign immigrants as “adding to the labor force” is a math error. This is unskilled labor and a social charge. More accurate to add to the elderly population for economic equivalent

[@FrankLennon1970]

Saturday in the park…

[@oleg7380]

Creepy clowns create unnecessary chaos or another short story part 2. To perfection recommend to add some circus music - expected that they will choose some from list of songs discussed on the beginning … What an ideas composition in one group just mix by circus soundtrack and that could be blockbuster and recover some money … Can imagine how much they lost by 2 years spent in illusion world…

[@edgardoberlioz2168]

Grazie 🙏 Mike Wilson

[@crohmer]

Dan was singing "spinning wheel," That is blood, sweat and tears, not Chicago smh

[@xxxs8309]

Mike is right. it's all about fiscal policy

[@gregheinhomes]

But he wasn’t saying that

[@stoor79]

KLXE and CLMT are going to rip. Might take 1,2 5, or 10 years but I’ll take a 3-5x over any of those time spans.

[@bigdog194]

Asses to be handed out, and no-one will be able to get to the elevator.

[@spsp3232]

They should rename this channel to “bears united”

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

Retarded we stand

[@RiskReversalMedia]

The bear’s lair

[@JPSinvestincts]

Love Mike, but dubious on his claims of Morgan Stanley investors outperforming the S&P. I own 2 actively-managed Morgan Stanley mutual funds that have been dismal performers, both down 45% & 55% respectively since 2021, so yes, that is a good reason to choose passive over active.

[@bigmoose143]

If Mike is the guest, can we let him speak please? 😢

[@BlueSky-hd6lq]

Personekity?

[@Meishach2112]

Can’t wait for the 5% correction so these guys can spike the ball after missing a 30% move in the S&P. 😂😂

[@Jay-jd1bi]

they call energy unloved. yet them and every person who comes on cnbc say buy energy.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

Dumb money flows to dumb places

[@rickyr678]

Any way to get Dan Nathan to shut up? Can't stand him.

[@DreamsOfBullRuns]

Mike Wilson Lmfaooooo

[@michaelwelch103]

Dan, you need to break the habit of “you know what I mean”.

[@aauslund]

Lord, Dan is has been so wrong for so long and just continues to double down. Can't wait for NVDA to finally drop and him to try and take credit like he hasn't missed the run 50x.

[@meta4kl237]

will never take these guys seriously again. they are no more expert than the average Joe on the street

[@tom-eliasknosp5267]

Has Mike Wilson just told us to buy small, speculative Shitcos, because Rates will get slashed? 🤪

[@Meishach2112]

The BIG SHORT guy is always short. Not great.

[@vickie8774]

The market is not the economy and trying to predict either is a fool's errand.

[@kennyboyz1]

Mike Wilson has no shame. Thank God he is a "strategist" and doesn't manage money for a living. His clients would lose money. Bro, just come out and admit that you suck.

[@civillian888]

Clearly he won’t. Smh

[@davidconnor5874]

Damn, y'all fryin they ass up in these comments. 😅😅😅

[@RiskReversalMedia]

So harsh

[@civillian888]

It’s cause these clowns have been telling people to short Nvda or the Q’s for well over a year now. The price action have proven them wrong every day

[@TXDuckman1717]

Of course Mike is more bullish. He got demoted.

[@og3477]

😂 all these old geezers are completely clueless thinking there isnt a killer ai app yet. if you’re not using ai almost everyday, you’re so out of the loop. have fun buying much higher from here

[@Srednicki123]

AI almost everyday? for what? writing emails? boilerplate code?

[@harry4503]

Mike has been bruised badly by his 2023 bearish call. He is not going to make same mistake again by getting it wrong.

[@martytayman9138]

Dan Nathan has never had a money making thought.

[@Yomamaissoo]

Mike got fired 😂😂😂😂

[@Marketwizchap]

Like to know why the hosts always have their laptops open…… just curious

[@RiskReversalMedia]

Looking at the markets and notes

[@civillian888]

They’re looking at ideas to start a new business

[@gregmorello4267]

I'm going to have a hard time listening to Dan talk over Mike. Dan Nathan, When guests come on... please don't preach to them...ask questions..let them talk....answer questions and spread their knowledge and insights. That's why they get invited. Thank you

[@rrrfamily565]

3 perma bear clowns joined by another bigger clown. Perfect!