Russia's war in Ukraine is not going to plan

[@ryanchall]

“No battle plan survived first contact” Or as Mike Tyson said, “everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face”

[@54788654478087654345]

Also, you shouldn't believe your own propaganda. Practically speaking, you shouldn't surround yourself with "yes men".

[@fartsare2023]

Lmao 🤣 and Ukraine has punched the Russians right in the mouth for the time being.

[@samfields3086]

Ukraine is getting destroyed and their military is getting destroyed lol

[@kippkiwii5010]

@@samfields3086 found a bot

[@MrNajibrazak]

@@samfields3086 Yeah, but no way Russia is going to achieve victory. They will never be able to hold Ukraine unless they kill every Ukrainian. Russians have been killing Ukrainian for centuries that there is no way Ukrainian would forgive this invasion. Nobody seem to care that common Ukrainians are united to fight to the end so the Ukrainian military is the least of the Russian concern. Looking back their past grievances i won't be surprise if every Russian on Ukraine soil is going to be a dead Russian. It is going to be worse than Afghanistan for Russia in Ukraine. The only solution for Russia to take Ukraine is to nuke it to submission, but that wont end well for Russia and the world. So there will be NO VICTORY for Russia in the very end.

[@ashcarrier6606]

The thing about being stalled on a road in the winter is you are going to run the engine for heat. So a stalled supply convoy itself becomes a refueling problem.

[@johnladuke6475]

That's my guess as to why that first 17km that's apparently out of fuel also has dead batteries. Turn on the electric heater Ivan, it's so cold in the cab without the engine running.

[@_Chipster]

@@johnladuke6475 Word also is that Russian vehicles are dealing with dry rot on tires too - unconfirmed

[@robertharper3754]

@@_Chipster, no, it's been confirmed. The vehicles were left parked way too long, and the tires themselves are cheap Chinese crap. They shot themselves in both feet.

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@Foxyfreedom]

You would think a nation literally in the Arctic Siberia could handle a little 10 degree weather. “You’ve been wearing two pairs of gloves this whole time? Uhh yea we’re in the Rockies!”

[@verylongname8161]

As someone invested in Logistics, history, geopolitics, energy and memes, this war has kept me busy and I learnt a lot recently. I just hope the loss of life is minimal

[@TumpsBudGuy]

Unfortunately, I dont think the last thing is possible. They will become untethered and go all Grozny on them.

[@sehaj778]

you are nobody.

[@conqueryourfuture6134]

Russia has struggled for power over the Ukraine region with the Ottoman Empire since its emergence in 1517. US Vegas strip, msm, physical oil ect is Saudi king owned.

[@notyourwaifu9692]

@@sehaj778 I bet you’re fun at parties!

[@konfunable]

Your hopes are already shattered. Kharkiv looks like WW2 all over again.

[@Zero_Contradictions]

"Soldiers win battles, logistics wins wars."

[@JoeHeine]

Pin this, Shirvan

[@centurymemes1208]

“management is the key” - Berthier, Greatest chief of staff in History

[@EM-tx3ly]

"War is a Racket"

[@SL-fg1cd]

Tactical nukes will finish this war. IF Ukraine does not accept Russian demands. Which they will.

[@jayklink851]

Plight of the German war efforts lol

[@klaudioabazi4478]

“In War nothing really goes as planned. Everything that can go wrong by definition will go wrong.”- whoever said that was spot on. Unfortunately it also means that desperate times call for desperate measures, and the bloodshed rises. War truly is Hell.

[@АлександрВасильев-ж8ы3в]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/ZoLTlHRmid1mjpI

[@3isr3g3n]

Murphys Law is true for EVERYTHING

[@GaganSingh-nx2yv]

@@Name-cz5jj I wouldn't call anti tank rockets as small guns.

[@QuantumLeapt]

And time is certainly a factor, the longer Ukraine holds out, the amount that can go wrong increases.

[@thehillbillygamer2183]

Ukraine inherited 1,000 combat aircraft 6,000 tanks and much more they sold more than 90% of it and now they have the nerve to ask for military help and no fly zone they knew they were weak they should have bent the knee

[@Shmbler]

Imagine sitting in that convoi for almost two weeks at subzero temperatures being an easy target. What an impact this must have on the morale. And all these trucks sitting there are obviously missing somewhere else on the battlefield meanwhile.

[@Pseudometrik]

This is what happened to germany when invadin russia at WW2

[@RJT80]

Maybe they sleep in them but they aren't sitting in them much. Most of those Russian troops spend the day standing around or in the nearby woods. Despite the lack of information the NYT still reports the Ukrainian SOF has been hitting them nightly with Javelins from a good distance away. Why aren't we seeing footage? The US has made it known that they really don't want footage of US weapons killing Russians, and if the Ukrainians wanted more, they needed to abide by that. But Javelins have played a significant role. The majority of Javelins actually went to the East and they've been key in holding terrain there against all odds.

[@varisleek3360]

32f to 50f this week, not subzero

[@flowgangsemaudamartoz7062]

@@Pseudometrik Germany didnt use trucks, they used railway mostly. And there just wasnt enough of it, as the whole invasion heading to stalingrad was just a strategical joke.

[@miniplingen]

@@varisleek3360 you assume they were using fahrenheit, but zero Celsius is 32F

[@criticalmetaphysician6652]

I believe this technical term for Russia's attack is a "Bylatkrieg." Look at some of the things we have seen, total logistics failures, multiple Russian general's getting killed in action, using unsecured communications for military actions, sending paratroopers without SEAD, apparent inability to launch complex air operations. I think this goes beyond restraint. It could be incompetence, corruption, lack of training, improper vehicle maintenance, whatever the case it seems like Russia's capability to perform the required actions is now in question.

[@fuehrer_tb5597]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@captainalex157]

Suka blyat!

[@captainalex157]

Suka blyat!

[@stalfish4655]

Бляткриг

[@scharb]

One of the greatest factors has been conscientious objectors within Russia, whom for instance tipped off Zelensky to the assassination squads. Morale is linked to morality, and both are aching in Russia now.

[@Cloud43001]

"plans never survive contact with the enemy" German Field marshal, Moltker the Elder. The one that modernized the way the Germans fought during the Franco-Prussian war.

[@cascadianapplications7124]

Moltke

[@CakePrincessCelestia]

"Plans never survive contact with people" ~Me

[@stoyantodorov2133]

I don't know where the idea that Ukraine can be taken over in just a few days originated, but it is completely unrealistic. The invasion of Iraq took over a month. In that conflict NATO had a much bigger technological and numerical superiority and the cities were bombed much more heavily beforehand. I doubt Russia imagined this would be over quick. If they did, that would be a massive overconfidence blunder.

[@KANEISNINJA]

its because when they took crimea the ukrainians pretty much gave up straight away, I think thats where the overconfidence stems from

[@Frostmear]

Thing is, Russia was THAT overconfident

[@nydydn]

In Iraq it was expected that Sadam's forces would fight fiercely. Partly because their good livelihood depended on this, but also because Iraqi troops were already trained in active wars (e.g. Kuwait). Although part of the population was supportive towards the American troops, they were not combative for obvious reasons. So the Americans expected serious resistance in Iraq. Putin didn't expect resistance because he thought much of the population would welcome the Russian army. He expected them to be if not supportive, then at least not combative for being scared of the might of the Russian army. Then he thought Zelensky would leave because of the threat of leveling the city, which Putin thought would disorganize the army, leaving him to do a victory walk in Kyiv. Putin pretty much assumed that Zelensky is like him, that the Ukrainian Army is like the Russian army, and that Ukrainian people are Russian. He learned that Ukraine is different than Russia the hard way. The Russian military is still mighty, but Putin needs to readjust plans massively and that's costly.

[@westrim]

It's precisely that comparison with Iraq that makes clear why it was expected to take only a few days. The Coalition forces advanced village by village by city to make sure there would be no Iraqi regulars behind the lines that could disrupt supplies. They advanced, held, confirmed control, then advanced again. There were only a couple major supply attacks as a result, and they were considered significant tactical errors. By contrast, Russia expected to face little resistance, particularly when pushing to Kyiv, and so drove in deeper than their supply lines could sustain operations for more than a couple days, and now they're trying to do what they should have done in the first place while also press offensives. That's working on some fronts, and failing on others. In 2003 the Coalition was prepared for a major fight. Russia was not.

[@Osdin36]

NATO? Wasn't it a US led coalition that invaded Iraq?

[@donaldduck4888]

One massive, and generally ignored, difference between this invasion and Gulf War 1 was that Russian ground forces have gone straight in without 7 weeks of air bombardment first. Ukraine is a large country, with substantial urban areas, being invaded without air preparation (for political reasons), in rasputitsa. It's not entirely surprising that the offensive is a bit of a slog, it would be totally naive to expect anything else.

[@overdose8329]

There’s no excuse for the shit logistics and lack of air supremacy though

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@andrewbobb3170]

I'm not sure it's really rasputitsa yet. I know we've seen some vehicles bogged down in the mud, but they keep talking about subzero temperatures, as well. When the mud fully forms, with the roads already blocked by unfueled vehicles, that might be the end of the invasion.

[@Byronic19134]

@@overdose8329 yes the reason is Russia wants a low cost victory with very few civilian casualties as he said. They didn't want to bomb a bunch of places they gotta rebuild.

[@bjkarana]

Excellent point. It appears Putin wanted to keep Ukraine "intact", as flattening the infrastructure country that he intends to annex is counterproductive, but the gamble was, as you point out, if he was wrong and his offensive in the north became bogged down. Of course his military will regroup and adjust their strategies, but now they have a time component as a second, direct, enemy, as the Russian economy withers and NATO supplies Ukraine with materiel to continue their resistance with a Spartan level ferocity.

[@Mr_M_History]

The bluff was called and Russia acted impulsively. Without term limits you might have leaders that get rusty and can't swallow their egos and therefore make terrible decisions for their own country

[@steezyvert4579]

@The Iguana dawg if this was planned since 2014 their logistics & supply lines would be INFINITELY better. He acted impulsively

[@tomshepard9050]

lol sure impulse from an old man dealing with the West for decades watching the roster of actors come and go and still the same shtty foreign policy. The only impulse here is how the West react to this invasion on all their media.

[@rafael18267]

@The Iguana nato and Ukraine wouldn’t follow the Minsk agreement and committed to mass killings in Donbask

[@conqueryourfuture6134]

@@rafael18267 he found out they were planning mass genocide and going to retake Crimea

[@maksmykhalchuk3646]

@@steezyvert4579 There is a 1-year-old video of Russian politician - Zhirinovsky (who is also a member of the Russian Security Council) who called an exect date of the Russian invasion: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pYSvqWOmjqiKjrc (the video is in russian)

[@kingace6186]

1) Russia's strategy didn't align was the on the ground reality of invading Ukraine. unlike the US, Russia is inexperienced & ill-suit for hand-brake restraint assault. And, instead of thinking with a cool head, the Kremlin reacted with desperation for results. 2) The Russian Invasion of Ukraine can be accurately described as a logistical nightmare. Troops of trucks and soldiers entered Ukraine only to run out of supplies/resources and abandon crucial equipment. Farmers are claiming tanks left behind by ill-prepared soldiers. 3) Didn't foresee the obvious, fierce resistance for freedom. Russian forces expected cheers and got a protest and a determined military. Despite being surrounded, Ukraine fought. And the underestimated Zelenskyy showed solidarity w/ the people from the streets of Kyiv. 4) The actions against Ukraine by the former superpower have led to significant damages to macro geopolitics. The former Communist Block, Iron Curtain, ex-USSR states are feeling anxious. Non-Nato states rethink stances. NATO is healing their unity.

[@orange_kate]

Russian army in general is really ill equipped and ill trained. Plus russian soldiers were brainwashed to think they are liberating the country and only killing nazis which wasn't the truth. A lot of people from russia have relatives and friends in Ukraine so you can imagine how they feel. No wonder they are making bad decisions when the fear of being punished is gone (nobody will be trying to find out the truth in all this mess), on top of the horrible logistics

[@mweembantembe6207]

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

[@florida199]

He is a true legend 🤣🤣😅

[@AW-zk5qb]

I think this should show that we have taken for granted the US being the most powerful country in the world and Pax Americana. When you look at the alternatives in China and Russia, I think you can gain perspective that for all its problems and mistakes, the US leading the world has been a good thing. Compare the US to any other past most powerful nation in the world over history and see this

[@tydalm.9665]

@@AW-zk5qb Tell that to the millions of civilians killed by the US war machine after WW2. The difference between a one party dictatorship and a two party dictatorship isn't that great.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@AW-zk5qb Bruh, just ONE of America's wars this century has orders of magnitude more deaths than ALL of Russia's wars in the same period COMBINED. Literally, just look up the death tolls. For instance, the Donbass war had about 13000 deaths, while the Afghan war death toll is about a quarter of a million! And that's not a Russian number btw, but an American one lol.

[@ampeerprime421]

OMEGALUL

[@free_at_last8141]

"War can't go against the plan if there is no plan." - Sun Tzankie

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@854gabryel]

What makes you think there was no plan to invade? Or do you just post random quotes on yt videos?

[@elementalwars7468]

@@854gabryel its a joke

[@KarMax91]

Don't watch TV. I'm from Russia. Your brain is being littered with wrong information. If you want to know the truth, then watch an interview with Scott Ritter. And your eyes will open

[@elementalwars7468]

@@KarMax91 My eyes are already open. Otherwise I wouldn’t be able to type this comment

[@avantelvsitania3359]

It might interest you that there is in Portugal a current debate concerning the EU’s option to diversify it’s energy supply. Portugal and Spain do not depend on Russian gas, theirs comes mainly from Algeria. For years, France has blocked a proposal for a pipeline to be built across the Pyrenees and connect the Algerian gas with the Central Europe’s grid. Also, concerning the liquified gas transported by ship, Portugal wants to take advantage of its geography and use the deep-water port of Sines as a major reception point. For this, the port would have to be connected with the Algerian gas grid. That’s why it is imperative that France help Iberia to connect its pipelines with the rest of Europe. Now we live in a new world, and France mays change it’s position in accordance with European solidarity. The EU is already analyzing this scenario, and the Portuguese government acting on it. From what I’ve heard, in these extraordinary circumstances, the new pipelines in the Pyrenees and Sines could be completed in a year and a half. It would be a major strategic investment. You might consider doing a video on this issue, on analyzing ways for Europe to achieve more energy independence. Anyways keep up the excellent work! Saudações.

[@robertmichalic4500]

Wow! I had no idea that Portugal gets its gas from Algeria - I thought there was no infrastructure for gas from Algeria to begin with! I wonder why this is not debated on a much larger scale and in media.

[@niqolas]

That is interesting info. Hello from Ukraine, Kyiv :) Hopefully this pipeline will be build as soon as possible....

[@RPEpsilon-lc4vm]

also I think that the project of using the ocean waves to power energy that was presented by a nordic country (can't remember which) might work as well on portugal, specially in the islands

[@yanisyanis4439]

I am from Algeria and I can hear rumors that Algeria is ready to increase its gas exports to Europe, but currently it has transportation infrastructure problems especially after the conflict with Morocco. Algeria closed one of the main gas pipelines destined to Europe, transiting on Moroccan territory.

[@Agent_Paul]

If Europe was to consider which country has a solid system to protect it's pipelines supply to Europe the answer will be Russia. North Africa countries can turn into a Lybia style conflict overnight hence the reason Europe is sceptical of making Algeria their major supplier.

[@gregcampwriter]

Did Putin not watch America's wars in this century? Trying to fight on the cheap is the most expensive way to go.

[@tomm5663]

While you did say that Russia’s military is largely under-utilised, I doubt how many more forces they could really bring to bear. Supply lines are already buckling under the weight of the limited invasion force and with the sanctions kicking in, their economy could really struggle to sustain a full-scale military engagement. 1,000,000 troops means nothing if you can’t feed them or pay them.

[@ragnorak2237]

they have over 4500 fighter jets that would level ukraine.. they haven't used that

[@namenight7158]

Russians aren't Americans. If needed they will work for free 24/7. Putin is dictator after all.

[@philiptripi6106]

They have only sent around 200k troops. If you lte familiar with their inventory you know they are using a fraction of their power. Like Russians do, they are attempting to do it as cheaply as possibly first and then ramping up as needed.

[@polysporin8332]

Russia never brought in the heavy bombers. They could level cities like stepping on ants.

[@sorsocksfake]

It's not so much the number of troops, but the way of using them. Russia does not treat this as a war, but more as a limited mission aiming to take out 'neonazi terrorists' and force Ukraine to become disarmed/neutral. They don't want to antagonize Ukraine, nor their own people (many of whom have family in Ukraine). So they are holding two arms behind their back. This means they can escalate, be it by more heavily employing theri airforce, using artillery more brazenly, ground troops being more aggressive to civilians, and even strategic choices like starving cities into submission. In short: escalate it to an actual war. Which is why it might matter for us to recognize Russia's restraint and give credit for it. Our opinion may be the least important here, but it would matter some, and it's a message the other players would have to consider. And that gives Putin something to lose, if he gets more aggressive.

[@Grymbaldknight]

The Lotus Eaters recently did a segment where they outlined the very real possibility that corruption within the Russian military is responsible for a lot of problems. However, this sort of corruption is low-level, so the senior commanders would have no idea about it until it was too late. When maintenance and fuel budgets simply get pocketed, and the books are cooked, disaster is inevitable.

[@fionafiona1146]

Russia and China have corruption at every level...there are attempts to take account of the lower confidence/numbers actually on the ground.

[@ericsuarez834]

Lol sounds like your specialist try hard to avoid blaming United States for this

[@nikolaucznaum4312]

The same thing happened to the Ukrainian military, Those pro-Russian officers have been discarded a long time ago.

[@baronvonlimbourgh1716]

Lead by example..

[@christopherg2347]

@@ericsuarez834 The US is responsible for Russia failing at logistics and fighting corruption?

[@Chuck_Hooks]

Stalin expected Finland to fall in a few days. Putin, like Stalin, has found out that reality is often not what everyone expects that it will be.

[@Chuck_Hooks]

@@daddy_1453 After Finns wiped out 125,000 of the Russian invaders.

[@spqr1945]

@@Chuck_Hooks Stalin did not care about casualities, neither Putin does.

[@franzneubauer6877]

I am glad you all know what the Russians expected.

[@Echelon030]

Who was it who said "we have only to kick down the door and the whole rotten edifice will crumble"?

[@Chuck_Hooks]

@@spqr1945 Hitler carefully watched the overall poor Soviet performance even in "victory" and gained confidence to launch Barbarossa.

[@bigheadrhino]

The plan was clearly to move in with such an overwhelming show of numbers that Ukrainians just surrender without a fight and Zelensky flees the country. After watching Winter on Fire I can see why the Ukrainians would fight like hell, they just fought like a hell a few years ago for their freedom, so they’re in “not taking anymore shit” mode. Reminds me of Vietnam where the Vietnamese had just freed themselves from French colonialism, then the US shows up thinking the Vietnamese would roll over or see them as “liberators”.

[@natesmodelsdoodles5403]

And just like Vietnam, the Russians are facing a logistical nightmare while fighting against a determined guerilla force that has absolutely no intention of not making this easier for them. While we talk about American infantry hearing the trees speak Vietnamese, our children and grandchildren will talk about Russian tankers hearing the ditches speaking Ukrainian.

[@daveviloria9396]

Viet Cong

[@pugnatorr]

"After watching Winter on Fire " just another average joe

[@keria7700]

Ukrainians are the same Russians who have been brainwashed by the West for 30 years. This operation will last another 2-4 months. And according to its results, Ukraine will become part of the USSR 2.0

[@Temmoie]

@@keria7700 Nah, the moment Russia accidentally tickled a single soil of NATO, she will become a smoldering graveyard. Better sue for peace or become pieces.

[@logannicholson1850]

Historically speaking Russia does tend to sacrifice a large amount of troops before smashing there opponents But yes it is definitely worth noting that Russia is holding back her most heavy systems and area denial system

[@konfunable]

They use their area denial systems as much as they can. Simply the real war revealed that Russia is completely incapable of combined arms operations. Numerous pictures of drones bombing their inactive SAMs and lots of destroyed and taken equipment in ambushes.

[@nightprowler6336]

@@konfunable idk how Caspian Report is saying Russia is failing. Russia has literally captured 6 major cities and is closing in on Dnieper from east and south... about to surround Donbass entirely...

[@RenoDW]

Agree with Russia's holding back its heavy and best equipment, it's so obvious tbh. Because Putin didn't really want an all-out war.

[@oattyrant2035]

@Myname Isunavailable peace can only be accomplished when all war economic or military ends and that can only happen with social credit (not Chinese version)

[@oattyrant2035]

@@nightprowler6336 it’s cope

[@wildsurfer12]

I never expected Ukraine to fall in 3 days. Anyone who knows it’s history will tell you that they will always put up strong resistance against Russia. But the Russians are still advancing, most profoundly on the southern front. So it’s far from over yet.

[@ericsuarez834]

They could have destroyed Ukraine with indiscriminate bombing as USA does but they took the time to avoid civilians

[@nicolomatias2223]

@@ericsuarez834 fucking russian propaganda boi

[@Matihood1]

@@nicolomatias2223 I mean, is it? Russia *does* have an absurd amount of artillery and the bombardments in the first days of the invasion have shown just how capable it is. Also, okay, boomer. Who are you to call others "boy" (or "boi", whatever)?

[@ericbatkhuu8696]

I think he meant by taking Kiev by 2nd day with special forces Landing in Hostomel Airport and Ukrainian government dissolving to everywhere and causing military to freeze(not wanting bloodshed when minutes away from new government getting stand down order) and while Russian troops advancing to other cities making sure old government not organising opposition. But Putin miss calculated on everything, thought it was going to be just coup d'etat.

[@nicolomatias2223]

@@ericsuarez834 took the time to avoid civilians *fires unguided rockets into residential areas, killing dozens of civilians

[@bangscutter]

Another important factor is the changing season. As winter comes to an end, and spring comes, the ground thaws and turns into mud. This is the infamous "rasputitsa" which is a bane for the fighting at the eastern front during WW2. Heavy vehicles will be confined to using roads and cannot traverse the countryside or they will get bogged down. The longer this drags on, the more disadvantageous it will be for Russia.

[@GCarty80]

Putin's desire not to anger China (by invading during the Winter Olympics) likely outweighed whatever concerns he may have had about rasputitsa...

[@gabrieleporru4443]

Yeah, nobody mentions this anymore but I was convinced Putin wouldn't have attacked anymore this season since the ice was breaking, but nonetheless, he did. It seems really strange how he didn't wait until october to wage war, when other countries need gas immediately, the soil is perfect and people are limited by temperatures

[@elektrotehnik94]

@@gabrieleporru4443 Exactly. That's why nobody believed Putin would attack now. It's absolutely bonkers to attack now, from the strategic perspective. Russian vehicles are getting stuck in the mud even now, it will be so much worse when full muddy spring hits. Furthermore, now they show how tactically, logistically & command-wise inept they are, when attacking at least; not to mention their shabby base-level equipment like communications/ radios ^^. Meanwhile, foreign military aid to Ukraine, foreign troops coming to fight in UA & the worst economic sanction this world has ever seen, aimed straight at Russia... The logistics are so bad they can't supply food, fuel AND ammunition to Russian forces at the same time... It kind of takes blitzkrieg rapid bombing mode off the table, does it... ^^ If they truly don't have oil refinery capacity after sanctions (read that here in the comments, not sure about that one), then... they really f*cked :D

[@itsmederek1]

Winter is good because EU is dependant on natural gas for household heating, thus giving Russia counter leverage to prevent sanctions from the West. Turns out the West doesn't give a fuck though as Spain is increasing gas imports from Algeria and the Dutch have polled positively on whether to restart production from the 5th largest natural gas bubble in the world to supply the Netherlands, France and Germany. Also most people are fine paying a shit ton for energy as long as Russia loses. This has become a very emotional conflict for us and we are not acting as we used to when provoked by Putin which must be scary for him.

[@fliteshare]

@@elektrotehnik94 You're a pessimist. The USA is now BEGGING Maduro (Venezuela) to start resupplying the USA with oil. Russia has threatened to shut down NordStream1, because if you don't want NordStream2 anymore, why do you need NordStream1 ? And Germany is back pedaling as if it is an Olympic sport. In the mean time, gas prices in California are above $5.00/USgal and in Germany above 2,10 €/L and bound to go up further. Which will help to dislodge the current political leadership. Oh and before I forget. Xi has promised Putin that China will buy everything Russia can't sell to the West as long as China can pay in yuan. Taking the allmighty Dollar down a peg or two, three, four. So, who has whom by the balls again ?

[@geminiblue6677]

Shrivan has a great sense of humor.. Best joke of the day "Russia invading Ukraine is the same as jumping into water without checking first !

[@MrKockabilly]

With Russian troops faring poorly in the war and economy suffering, protests in Russia erupted. The Russian leader ordered use of violence to quell unrest. Opposition to the government increased. The soldiers mutinied. The Russian leader was deposed. And Russia officially withdraw from the war. The year was 1917.

[@Dantozab]

This year was 1918, At 1917 was revolution of Provisional Government. And in 1918 the Bolsheviks seized power.

[@TilveranWrites]

If Putin is replaced, it will be by the Communist Party. There's always someone worse, waiting to take power.

[@Dantozab]

@@TilveranWrites The Communist Party is no longer the same as it was in USSR. They are rather liberals in the shoes of the communists. In Russia, people do not believe in any party, and the voting proceeds according to the principle "we do not vote for, but vot against", as long as it is not the ruling party "Edinaya Rossia". But still, the party "Edinaya Rossia" in power with about 70% of the vote against 65% (40-45% for the communists), and a voters turnout of 108% out of 100%, despite the fact that almost 40% of the nation is boycotting elections. Lol.

[@snezhanapolyanskaya3293]

@@Dantozab я русская. все так. у нас авторитарный режим. сейчас введена цензура. уже есть уголовные дела за призыв к миру. у нас в стране очень мощная пропаганда и нет свободных СМИ.

[@___NeedNT___VDK125]

@@snezhanapolyanskaya3293 у нас вся страна сгнила во лжи, лицемерии, коррупции и эгоизме. Её по сути исправит только море крови. До нас по другому не доходит

[@HeroHoundoom]

The Russian army's progress is slow but it's moving nonetheless. The war is still young and things can change rapidly. I hope this war comes to a close quickly.

[@dutber3629]

the Russian army is moving well, 40-50 km a day, this is quite a good pace of advancement, I would recommend a good channel, but the author of this channel speaks Russian

[@konfunable]

It is not moving any more fore some days now.

[@Kalimdor199Menegroth]

@@dutber3629 Not sure how you see it moving. Sure, in some areas it is, but in most it has stalled. The Russian forces that took Kherson have been pushed back. Those moving towards Kyiv have been dragging on and on for days. The Russian army has not been able to take Mariupol yet and those attacking Zhytomir airport have been pushed back too. This might become a war of attrition, especially with Russians now having logistic and supply issues.

[@roems6396]

@@Kalimdor199Menegroth Russia can’t win a war of attrition. Not when every citizen in the country is willing to fight them

[@dutber3629]

@@Kalimdor199Menegroth there are no problems with logistics yet, that's for sure, traffic is different on different sectors of the front, but daily traffic is about 40-50 km, soon the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will wake up in the boiler, it seems they are going to sit in the cities

[@Lorenzogino]

the key difference between Ukraine and Syria and why even after months of war it won't fall into a 'Syria like situation' is the lack of internal division within Ukraine with relatively stable neighbours. Ukraine is mostly united in fighting the Russian invasion. Even people Russia had expected to be at least neutral have shown resolve in resisting Putin. Syria has been typified by near anarchic conditions with split factions in the opposition to Assad from secularist to radical islamic, not even factoring in foreign interference. Ukraine has no such elements threatening to destabilize the situation. It's a poor point of comparison.

[@conqueryourfuture6134]

The people know they have a puppet gov installed by the US caliphate so there is some instability and division among the people and many sheep unless they have been direct victims of it. Don’t believe everything you see on Saudi king owned msm

[@pawezielinski5467]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oYG9pJSpapiEm7c

[@quand_meme]

Putin united not only ukrainian speaking people but russian speaking are fighting against russian forces and even russian minority. XD

[@armandsimonis7992]

@@conqueryourfuture6134 - sure, "a puppet gov" elected by 70+ % of the Ukrainian population. Do you really believe it yourself? That is the ironic effect of Putin's aggression against Ukraine since Euromaidan. He took a way parts of Ukraine (Crimea, Donbass) with the largest pro-Russian sentiments among the electorate so no surprise the balance among remaining voters in Ukraine switched even more to Ukrainian "pro-western" candidates. And of course together with the unification effect in Ukraine caused by Putin's "policy" against Ukraine.

[@graemesydney38]

@@conqueryourfuture6134 troll

[@konstantinkh]

Well, it's been another week, and clearly the "handbrake" is off, if it ever was on. Russia is firing on civilian buildings intentionally and without reasons, conducting bombing raids, shooting up convoys, but has only been losing ground if anything. Restraint was clearly never the reason why Russia was having trouble in Ukraine. The fact that they can't manage their supply lines and catastrophic corruption that gutted their inventory is. If Russia tried a more forced approach from the start, all they'd have is less ground gained in the first days, and they would still be spinning tires now with nothing to show for it. Trying to credit their "restraint" for unsuccessful invasion is not only erroneous, but is offensive to the people who have been actually preventing the invasion forces from making progress.

[@postyoda]

Handbrake is still on, you just don't know what an off handbrake looks like. Couple of Iskandars here and there, that's for intimidation. Full-scale bombardment doesn't leave one building unharmed in a city.

[@konstantinkh]

@@postyoda Russia is already running out of modern Iskanders they can use at range. The older ones are too short of a range to get them into positions in a lot of places without exposing them to counterattacks by Bayraktars. That leaves strategic bombers, but they'll be short work for mobile AA systems as Russia still doesn't have air superiority in Ukraine. Think about that, Russia can't even control the skies over all of Ukraine. The rest is MRLs and artillery which are pounding cities they can get to, like Kharkov and Mariupol - and if you want to know that they aren't stopping for any humanitarian reasons, look at these cities. Russia's already throwing in all its got. It just doesn't have much left after all of the generals bought their yachts. Russian government is fighting for survival right now. If in the first week, someone might have had illusions of quick and easy victory, it's gone now. Russia has to either win or perish as a nation in its current form. Withdrawal from Ukraine means loss of not only Donbas, but also Crimea. Not through direct military action, but because Ukraine will cut off power, water, and gas to Crimea until Russian military is forced to live the peninsula too. Russia coming back home without complete victory means they have to admit all the losses, and that the deaths, destruction of much of its military, loss of Crimea, and all the financial pressure was for absolutely nothing. You can keep spinning this with Russian media while the fighting is going on, but not after the soldiers come back and tell their stories. That will be the end. And you think Russia is holding back at this point? If they thought they could get away with using nukes, they'd already be using nukes. What we see is literally all they can do. And it's not enough. I get that everyone wanted to believe the big bad Russia lie, because it makes it easier to accept that we didn't do anything to stop them earlier. We were afraid of starting WWIII, it'd be too costly, etc. etc. But it's still just that, a lie. Russia has a small core of capable forces it used to flex on inferior forces in Syria etc, but the rest is just old junk that barely works anymore. Fighting isn't just bombs and cannons. It's also logistics, training, and support materiel. All the stuff that Russia lacks. They cannot fight a large scale war. Thy simply can't.

[@imaginarystranger1974]

@@postyoda This 'handbrake" is the only option for them. They simply can't afford to involve much more, no matter how much they would like to.

[@TheOpalHammer]

Putin: "The collapse of the USSR was a catastrophe" Also Putin: *Collapses Russia*

[@chiron13]

That will also be the end of the world.

[@benghazi4216]

@@chiron13 You think the Oligarchs want their money to go up in smoke? If they can, they will kill him before he pushes the button

[@chiron13]

@@benghazi4216 They are not idiots, their money will be worthless if they can easily be held at ransom by the west. Btw, do you think Russia will allow western banks to just steal Russian money? Don't you think there will be retaliation? This is not Iran. Remember, Japan struck Pearl harbor because the US imposed an oil embargo against Japan.

[@benghazi4216]

@@chiron13 You got it all wrong. Their money has value now. If Putin starts a nuclear war, their money is worthless. They will kill him if that was the plan and they had the chance Steal Russian money? No no, it has already been stolen from the Russian people by the oligarchs. This is the chance the Russian people have to getting in back.

[@chiron13]

@@benghazi4216 Their money has value only if they have the freedom to use it! Their money is at the mercy of the west. And they are slaves of the west. Besides a Russian stealing from a Russian does not give the west the right to steal from a Russian. Pushing Russia to a corner is not going to end well for the world. Imagine, if they decide to cut underwater internet cables!

[@dandre8019]

"War without logistics is just a riot" - Shirvan... you should write a 100 page book only filled with your quotes. In every video of yours one can find super clever yet simple thoughts compressed in one or max two sentences. You are a real geopolitical philosoph and it is clear that you have plenty of interesting ideas about all sorts of political relationships worldwide. Of only all people in power could see the world through your eyes the world would be a better place!

[@enqueste2544]

umm these are basics they cover in any war, military book. but ok

[@somethung8188]

@@enqueste2544 Duh. He's talking about the quote itself, nitwit.

[@mauriciosolano9342]

@@enqueste2544 shirvan always give a quote of his or a modified version of another quote Some are really gols

[@klobiforpresident2254]

@@somethung8188 Quotes which already existed.

[@somethung8188]

@@klobiforpresident2254 Find it elsewhere

[@N0noy1989]

I believe morale has a huge paralyzing effect on the Russian army. Last week, Belarus was supposed to help Russia. But they didn't come. Now intelligence came that tons of conscripts fled, even generals resigned. Belarus doesn't have a working army anymore. Russia has a better hold in its army but if this goes on, it might be a very bad idea to call the whole army. Might end up in a civil war if portions rebel.

[@smc1942]

Moreso, Belarusians are joining Ukraine forces to fight against the Russians.

[@ararune3734]

@@smc1942 What is your source?

[@cianakril]

@@ararune3734 there has been like 20 Belarusian nationalists, all outlawed from entering Belarus, mind you, that has joined this "foreign legion" craved by Ukraine. Far more mercenaries has joined from other countries. Early this morning the mercenary base and training center got 8 Russian cruise missiles. Around 100 merc dead, over 300 wounded. From the 200 people who made it to Kiev earlier, only 30 are willing to stay at frontline, according to Nolan Peterson, the US reporter embedded with merc units. All the expectations, the Russians has low moral, wrong logistics, run out of gasoline or cruise missiles, wanted to make revolts inside Russia, or anyhow cares about foreign retards willing to suicide themselves by catching Russian ordnance in sleep, is nothing more than anti-Russian party is consoling itself in the front of harsh reality when Russians don't give a f about Western hysterics and absolutely own Ukraine by utilizing only 1/5 if the force avaliable.

[@ararune3734]

@@cianakril Ok, go touch grass

[@keria7700]

Where do you get this nonsense from?

[@mikkamanny192]

I read an article from war on the rocks from last November and they predicted that Russia's biggest problem would be logistics . And they proven correct the Ukrainians are fighting smart by going for fuel trucks , Russian tanks and sam systems without fuel are all over the internet

[@имяфамилия-с8в1я]

🤣🤦

[@SrpskiViztezovi]

And yet Ukranian AA nearly neutralized, Airforce doesent exist any more, they are losing ground evry day, losing men, 50k fighters are in cauldron from yesterday, Mariupol should fall in 2-5days, Russians are coming from the back od Dnipro, Odesa is in danger of being attacked soon. How come they are advancing all the time?

[@tam8539]

@@SrpskiViztezovi 😅😂😂consumer of rusia propaganda detected. Ukrainian AA nearly neutralized? Say it again 😁

[@harbosonius]

​​@@tam8539ou can't even spell Russia properly and you're calling others out?😂😂😂Say it again, SoyJack

[@ValensBellator]

A problem I don’t see mentioned much for Russia is that the winter is ending soon and the terrain will be too muddy for vehicles. Meanwhile, all of the new weapons and munitions have begun flooding into Ukraine, along with volunteer fighters. All Russian actions over the past week have shown they recognize they’re in an untenable situation, and that they’ve already reduced their demands is very telling. It may be brutal but the Ukrainians may want to keep holding out… they absolutely cannot agree to military limitations and guarantees of neutrality, as Putin will just roll in again not too long from now to finish the job.

[@choppal5610]

& thats why Russia should pull its troops back & Level kiev with Strategic bombers, enough of playing nice

[@demianhavdun5385]

@@choppal5610 & thats why mentally unstable ppl have to take their pills

[@itzikashemtov6045]

@@choppal5610 Go ahead and do it, Enough with big talks behind the keyboard.

[@choppal5610]

@@itzikashemtov6045 wanna get me a strategic bomber?

[@katethegoat7507]

The terrain already is too muddy, hence why they've been exclusively using roads

[@immortallvulture]

Artillery is logistically intensive to employ in large quantities. With continuing Russian logistics problems it is possible they are simply unable to employ heavy artillery bombardments until their logistics problems are solved

@@infowarrior4326 Lol? When you make a salvo from MLRS, where do you think that additional rockets come from? Spawns at your location?

[@saumyacow4435]

Yes, and in this context, deploying artillery against civilian areas is wasting resources.

[@eget4144]

@@saumyacow4435 It is like saying napalming forrest is waste of resources. When the concrete starts to talk ukranian, bombing it to the ground will be good idea militarly (not humanitrianly :) ).

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@lastword8783]

@@saumyacow4435 not necessarily. Artillery will cause civilians to flee. Empty areas are easier to occupy. Displaced civilians fleeing west puts a bigger strain on Ukrainian givernment. Its a tragedy that such draconian measures can work.

[@prem27mndl]

We are skipping one important fact that Turkish Drones are turning highly effective against Standard Military equipment today's nations have at their disposal. Turkish drones have proved their mettle in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Now it's turning out to be a blessing for Ukraine.

[@klyhoriomuno4102]

Hopefully Kosovo will buy some

[@prem27mndl]

Since COVID began, these few geopolitical changes are a hint where the world is being led to.

[@eget4144]

@@prem27mndl mecha warriors?

[@benghazi4216]

@@prem27mndl But the drones are only effective when there is no functioning AA. That's why without NATO intelligence, the effectiveness in this conflict would be low. Ukraine can't tell when AA systems are down and thus they can attack, but NATO can.

[@Trancedd]

They are already recieving and using Turkish drones?

[@bergonius]

"Russia is seeking to minimize the civilian casualties" That didn't age well.

[@connorsuprock9891]

This video has aged very poorly.

[@WreckedRectum]

@@connorsuprock9891 He said Putin would either have to admit defeat and face the consequences back home or start targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure- war crimes or socio-economic instability at home. This is exactly what went on to happen.

[@kchall5]

This has the potential to develop into another Northern Ireland situation, where rogue paramilitary groups harass the occupying Russians and those perceived as Ukrainian collaborators, even taking the fight into Moscow and St. Petersburg in the form of terror attacks.

[@jimraynor9897]

It almost certainly won't, as Ukrainians are all united for their hate of Russia, not to mention Ukraine is like 20 times bigger than N. Ireland.

[@kchall5]

@@jimraynor9897 It will be worse. Since the population isn't split down the middle like in NI, Russia and its Ukrainian allies will bear the full brunt of a large-scale insurgency.

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@jontalbot1]

Very poor analogy. There was no invasion and the majority population identifies as British. There were two sets of paramilitaries representing the two sides, Protestant and Catholic. The Catholic side waged war on the state (mostly) but the Protestants waged war on the Catholics (mostly). The state tried (mostly) to maintain law and order. It is true the Catholic side took the campaign to mainland U.K. and tried to blow up the government. The Chechens did the same in Russia.

[@Oscar-ds2vb]

@@jimraynor9897 lmao you have no idea. the people of ukraine are split as hell on that topic. this idea that "the people of ukraine have all come together to fight the invader" is 100% western propaganda. its not real.

[@wardhamuneeb4393]

"War without logistics is just a riot" Well said~

[@Quickshot0]

With each day that passes, one has to increasingly wonder if there simply is a problem with the Russian air force these days. Sorties they do fly seem to tend towards dumb bombs rather then precision munitions, which makes one wonder if they have few left. And they've continually failed to neutralize Ukrainian AA ability and thus keep taking losses. Over all it makes one wonder if it is just not as good as typically presented.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

They probably ran out of precision munitions. That stuff is expensive. Planes need maintenance, parts, workers. My money is that they can't fly more sorties even if they wanted to.

[@persianprince2012]

It is a strategy Putin uses to make it seems like they are defeated , encouraging the ukrainians to come out of their hideouts then attackk them

[@Quickshot0]

@@persianprince2012 It 'could' be such a strategy. But even if it were it would still be a weak play compared to say the USA would do, who would just have gone for air supremacy and given them far less chance to use such attritional tactics against them. So it still gives the impression they're just not able to do that.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

@@persianprince2012 You don't use your logistic system as 'Bait'. Especially if you need the supplies. You can allocate more escorts in bigger convoys, but that takes even more supplies, increases wear and reduces delivery coverage. They still know you're coming and can bring more RPG than you can bring armour. Making yourself out as weak is a really bad idea as it demoralises your troops who understandably don't want to be bait after the nth convoy got roasted.

[@cianakril]

@@oohhboy-funhouse who told you they run out of something? US military has put a chart the Russians use 30 to 50 cruise missiles a day, every day ever since the start of the operation. Nor do they have troubles with tactical missiles or munitions for the artillery. The only reason they don't bomb the hell out of Ukrainian cities as NATO does in the Middle East, is because they want to preserve this cities and minimize civilian casualties. Open fields is safari for the Russians.

[@ned4556]

Well, I don’t agree with restraint of russian firepower. Just yesterday I escaped one of the hottest spots, it was north from Kyiv. Towns were ruined to dust, none of buildings survived their artillery and “Grads”. My dead neighbours lying in their yards with no one to bury them. The problem with invasion is a myth about might of Russian army. And being ruined as any myth, people try to find a reason why that happened. They don’t hold back, if they did, local hospital, orphanage and a lot of my neighbours were intact , whole or alive.

[@shaggyposts6221]

Russian federation is a big nation, military wise it's much much much bigger than Ukraine, it's hard to grasp how much their holding back is and how much they're actually capable of, Zelensky is an idiot, he knew well that Russians would never allow nato to creep up it's borders he shouldve stayed neutral and not agitate the fucking empire by trying to join anti Russia alliance(NATO) where is NATO now?! War in Ukraine is hopeless. No matter how hard or willing the fighters are, fuck Zelensky because many Ukrainian mother's may never see their children, countless innocent civilians will never see the day of light again, strong leader finds best diplomatic way to resolve a crisis, instead of agitating the much bigger nation and try to scare it with sanctions, what did sanctions do ? Ass red Russians fleeing from slight discomfort back home, Soviet union existed for a fucking century without western money, Russia is big enough to survive on its own sanctions won't hurt it unless it's non stop for decades.

[@shaggyposts6221]

He's not a politicians he's a comedian, sometimes it's better to have slight idea of what it means to rule a country, that every one of your steps may have very drastic consequences.

[@ned4556]

@@shaggyposts6221 there can be no diplomatic solution with russia. They never keep their word. And “empire” is not even colossus on a clay legs, it’s a complete fiction, only image. We know russians , Zelensky knows russians. Our people struggled too long to get an independent country, and we won’t give it without a fight. You are trapped by that image of russia, it’s no ussr. And we live in hard times, when national leaders become clowns, and clowns become heroes. Zelensky is a wise and brave man, and he knows our national anthem well - “we’ll give our souls and bodies for our freedom” There can be no deal with russians, and Ukrainian mothers, and old man, and infants - everyone here knows that Freedom has a great cost, and we’ll pay it With our lives, or our deaths If we give out our freedom we are not better than russians Joining nato and eu is not just wish of Zelensky, it is opinion of the most of population of the democratic nation. If you don’t get it, your place is in Mordor, being a Putin’s slave

[@muzp1121]

While I acknowledge that Russia appears to be holding back somewhat and the Russian artillery could be brought to bear. The issue with that if anything is it will exacerbate the supply problem and place further demand on a logistically crippled army. Its currently barely out of Russia and stalled. More troops, vehicles, tanks and planes will only make that situation worse. Furthermore, if the Russians can bring their artillery to the cities of Ukraine enmasse I think theyll see even harsher responses from the world than theyre seeing now. There's no winning from here.

[@ajnaughtin1]

My thoughts too. There are reports of the Russians bringing in civilian trucks and tankers because their logistics are so bad. I doubt them employing artillery would help in any way.

[@KuroiReaper]

@@ajnaughtin1 it would help. Because Russia would pull back fixing its logistical problems, regroup and then probably eradicate ukrainian military with its civilians.

[@ANSELAbitsxb]

@@ajnaughtin1 Once it becomes clear that Ukraine will not surrender and that russias image has already been damaged to the max they will switch from trying to incorporate Ukraine to destroying it.

[@jamiemarsden3823]

@Muz P >> YOU ARE CORRECT in saying putin is holding back thats just simple fact i'm glad you realise this fact unlike most morons on here lol they know full well thart is they wanted to they could STEAMROLL ukraine AND ANY NEIGHBOURING COUNTRY without much effort! WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN NEVER TO MESS WITH A VODKA FILLED RUSSIAN lmao :/

[@jamiemarsden3823]

how to appease a RUSSIAN>> get out your best bottle of vodka must be at least 98% PROOF perade some tarty women as to relieve some of their testosterone and drink into stalemate coz you'll never out drink a russian but if you can match him he may just become your FRIEND! :) LOL

[@REDLEG75th]

This is my understanding of the events taking place. After Russia took over Crimea (violating the 1994 BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM), and Ukraine then blocked the North Crimean canal to the Crimean Peninsula with a dam. One of Russia’s primary objectives was the destruction of the dam & now to secure the canal & water ways all the way to the uppermost northern part of the country to ensure the flow of water back into the peninsula. Along with the ports & strategic value (not only in Crimea but now also the remaining southern Ukrainian costal regions), it was discovered that there are massive deposits of gas/oil in the Crimean peninsula & coastal waters, I can see how that is appealing to Russia to make a primary mission & subsequent objectives. At the same time they (Russia) could make it so they no longer have to pay large sums of monies for royalties for the existing pipeline that already runs from Russia through Ukraine to Europe. I think that the rhetoric in regards to NATO being a "threat" is a tertiary objective/excuse at best. NATO had no interest in moving against Russia. Let us not forget the events that led up to today: • “July 16, 1990: Ukraine’s Declaration of Sovereignty • July 31, 1991: The United States and the Soviet Union sign START • Dec. 26, 1991: The Soviet Union officially dissolves, delaying entry into force of START • Dec. 30, 1991: Minsk Agreement on Strategic Forces. The Commonwealth of Independent States agrees that strategic forces would be under the joint command of the former Soviet Union states • May 23, 1992: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the United States sign the Lisbon Protocol. The protocol calls for the return of nuclear weapons in three formerly Soviet states to Russia and for all states to be added to the START treaty and join the NPT • Jan. 14, 1994: Ukraine, Russia, and the United States sign the Trilateral Statement. Ukraine commits to full disarmament, including strategic offensive weapons, in exchange for economic support and security assurances from the United States and Russia • Sept. 4, 1993: Massandra Accords. Failed summit between Russian and Ukrainian governments • Dec. 5, 1994: Russia, Ukraine, United States, and the United Kingdom sign the BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM on Security Assurances. Includes security assurances against the threat or use of force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence • Dec. 5, 1994: Ukraine submits its instrument of accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The five START parties exchange instruments of ratification for START, which enters into force • June 1, 1996: Ukraine transfers its last nuclear warhead to Russia • October 30, 2001: Ukraine eliminates its last strategic nuclear weapon delivery vehicle • Dec. 4, 2009: Joint Statement by Russia and the United States. The two countries confirm the security guarantees made in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum • March 18, 2014: Russia annexes Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and provides support to forces in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk provinces of Ukraine. • February 24, 2022: Russia engages in large-scale “military exercise of Ukraine.””

[@kolecava]

This. Absolutely nothing to do with NATO, or very little.

[@Unbrutal_Rawr]

NATO has been installing a "strategic missile shield" capable of launching Tomahawks and aimed directly at Russia since the mid 90s. In 2008 it has announced plans for Ukraine's entry together with Georgia. Only countries without territorial disputes can enter. This prompted Georgia to try and militarily occupy the breakaway South Ossetia where Russian peacekeepers were stationed, hoping for US involvement after Russia's inevitable response. This is also the reason that Kiev needed to capture Donbass militarily in contravention of the Minsk accords, which instead provide for federalisation and ensure Russian political leverage inside Ukraine. In 2019 the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed in 1987, which banned long-range ballistic missiles. It's mindblowing to me that someone can be brain-dead enough not to know such fundamental things and yet think they have anything valuable to say on the issue.

[@selfservis323]

Let's also remember that the annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014 was right after the fall of the pro Russian government of Ukraine

[@roiboniver7278]

Very clear, Budapest memorandum has been clearly violated

[@REDLEG75th]

…

[@tongpoo8985]

7:13, or mobilizing civilian doctors early would be seen as an admission to the russian people that the govt was willingly starting a war in which they expected heavy casualties.

[@Brismo7]

Yeah, for the other side

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c..

[@altGoolam]

Exactly. People are assessing this like they would a game strategy. But these are real people and there are real political repercussions. Putin pushed forward, pauses and gives the EU a chance to defuse Ukraine. EU don't do anything, and Russia pushes a little more forward and a little harder.

[@InternationalNewsDaily]

This will eventually develop into an outright insurgency, one heavily supported by the West. I don't know what the long term game plan was here. But it was... ambitious to say the least.

[@corvanphoenix]

The plan was outlined well by Crimea Report in late Jan. There's also on a YT vid from last year, a Russian General explaining it. There are multiple places for Putin to capture, they can be categorised into 3 waves. The idea is to put so much pressure on the Ukrainian people, they agree to back off on the democracy stuff. Pre-war surveys on the number of Ukranians willing to mount an armed resistance to a Russian occupation theorised it would take 300,000 troops suppress an insurrection. Putin didn't even send in 150k of his 180k troops until a couple of days into the war. Russia immediately failed to meet their strategic objectives from day 1. Despite brilliant moves like going through Pripyat to get to Kyiv on the western Dniper. Despite air dropping in Spetznas teams on an airport in NW Kyiv. Their eastern Dniper assault from Russia captured 2 towns on the highway to Kyiv but still haven't got the main city on the road, Cherniv. So they couldn't get to Kyiv in time to take it by surprise. Meanwhile on the western Dniper, despite their short cut, they got shredded as soon as they touched the outer suburbs of NW Kyiv. See the vid of the old guy walking down his street in Bucha, yelling at the dead Russians & vehicles strewn through the whole town? They only just took Bucha. So those Spetznaz would have needed to last over 2 weeks for their day 2 backup to arrive. They didn't last 2 days anyway. Also in that region, an intercepted Russian gunship helicopter unit commander's messages to command are chilling. Message by message he describes the Ukranians decimating his unit. The last message was that they would need immediate ground support to be able to withdraw.

[@craigkdillon]

Delusional, not ambitious.

[@murderofcrows2179]

@@corvanphoenix more like multiple places for separated russian units to die.

[@aachoocrony5754]

@@corvanphoenix Source? where can I find this info?

[@corvanphoenix]

@@aachoocrony5754 No worries, any particular part or topic?

[@TheCityofTownsville]

On the plus side, I think we can all appreciate the irony of the Russians falling prey to the same things they brag saved them from Napoleon and Hitler.

[@c.i.a.932]

What? Logistics? The thing that defeated Napoleon and Hitler was sheer firepower and weather.

[@roems6396]

@@c.i.a.932 Yeah, you know that old saying, “Never invade Russia during...a logistics blackout.

[@ahmadniam3568]

Well they have good experience with this At Finland and Afghanistan. So yeah, a habit.

[@hendrikdependrik1891]

Russia is being defeated by the weather as well. They need snow, not mud. Also, both the forces of Napoleon and Hitler were suffering from imperial overstretch.

[@malinaizetiopije8844]

How are they falling prey to the winter??

[@ozairakhtarcom]

There are some serious questions that needs to be answered by the experts: 1. Why Russians didn't used it's Missile Force to Destroy the Air Defense Units and other valuable targets in Ukraine? 2. Why Russians didn't make use of their superior Air Forces to Bomb Defense Units and other valuable targets in Ukraine? 3. Why Russian Army isn't fighting actively as it should over the ground?

[@PerfectDeath4]

I've seen some educated guesses, like from Military Aviation History channel along with some other sources who had been studying Russian military. 1: due to sanctions from back in 2014 Russia's supply of computer chips has been limited and those fancy missiles need fancy chips. So they might be rationing their missiles relying on unguided weapons which have less precision effect. Prior to the attack it is also speculated that NATO directly warned Ukraine of the attack, that encouraged the Ukrainians to move some of their air defense assets and command centers. 2: There are a few possibilities here, one is that the Russians were launching their ground invasion at the start of war. To limit friendly fire from their ground based AA their airforce is limited to very narrow columns. Then there is also the question about spare parts for Russian jets. Their jets are high performance and require a lot of maintenance and spares, this results in a limit to the number of sorties their airforce is capable of doing as even launching a jet will wear the parts down. So again, they are likely rationing their airforce. Referencing the likely shortage of chips and precision missiles the airforce is running most of their air attacks with unguided bombs which require flying low to hit accurately making them vulnerable to manpads. 3: The invasion seems to have been delayed a few weeks (possibly due to intervening in Kazakhstan) which has resulted in the ground unthawing. This forces the Russians to focus on staying on roads as they will sink into the mud if they go off road. Ukraine's road infrastructure is focused on a few good highways linking logistic hub cities. This means that once the Russians reach one of these defended cities, they have to slowly slog through the mud roads to encircle the city. In the south, things seem drier and they are closer to military logistic bases in Crimea which is likely why the south offensives are gaining more ground.

[@macmcleod1188]

Most likely because Russia is poor and only has a 70 billion dollar military budget (pre ruble collapse0 45 billion now). They have an economy respectively about the size of australia (little bigger), california (little smaller), and texas (little bigger). Putin and the Oligarchs have plundered more than a trillion dolllars from Russia. It's drained.

[@khaccanhle1930]

Because they are not as evil as the US. They don't want to totally destroy the country, and the civil government, and the Civil Society. They're trying to preserve the country as best as possible so that they can either negotiate with the government, or install another government as peacefully as possible. If you want to see how a larger country comes out early instantly smash another one and destroy it killing thousands of people, look no further than the US and NATO over the past 30 years.

[@irdorath356]

1 Because it does. Over 2200 targets of military infrastructure have been destroyed. 2 Because Ukrainians avoid combat in open field and aviation isnt paricualary a good chioce when your goal is not to demolish the cities. Still about a hundred flyouts every day. 3 Because they are numerical inferior.

[@PySnek]

@@khaccanhle1930 Lol, you don't know what you're talking about. Russia destroyed alot in Syria and killed ten thousands of civilians. There is no good superpower. NATO, China and Russia are all bad. Politicians are evil. Greed is death. Humans are still apes.

[@birdmonster4586]

I recently read and Article: Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli. It mentioned several key differences and limitations to the Russian Logistical system. 1. They have a unique unit formation called a Railroad Brigade. There isn't a western equivalent to this and they deal with "railroad security, construction, and repair, while rolling stock is provided by civilian state companies." 2. They use Railroads a lot, far more than any other army in the world, mainly due to Russia's Size. 3. One main problem to this is that the Russian Railroad network is a gauge HIGHER than most of Europe, leaving only Russia, Finland and former Soviet Bloc countries using this Gauge of rail. So Russia's ability to sustain it's forces consistently and effectively relies entirely on that Rail network and they would have major difficulties supplying forces beyond 150-280 Kilometres from Railroad based Supply depots. The Russian's Army logistic forces are just not build for large scale ground offensives far from Railroads and their Combat formations often have a sustainment formation a level below that of most western armies, The US Military especially. On top of that Russian Formations tend to have up to three times the Artillery and a heap more Air Defense compared to US formations So their Logistical footprint is higher than a Western Formation

[@silentclown4307]

Look at how internet heroes are taking up Chief of Command rank in Russia.

[@markjackson7467]

You really don't have a clue if you believe any of that

[@jamiemarsden3823]

@Bird Monster bro why you gota talk some shit for?! lol i dont think you fathum just how massive the russian military is you think by rolling 100000 trucks down the road 300km they guna cry about losing a few? lmao wake the fuck up! THEY DONT NEED RAILROADS TO FORM ANY OFFENCIVE that much is clear like ants marching down a hill where one drops 100000 more take their place :/

[@jamiemarsden3823]

russias flaw is in their personnel* they are mostly young kids so as a group and a 'one' working MATURE force they lack what other military forces work upon as the main fundamentle of a successfu l fighting force > MATURITY* their mostly just kids fresh out of school ffs this fact is their main flaw NOT their ability to wage a front from set positions coz lets face facts here russia have more shit then an ant colony and are more capable of chugging along then anyother force on this earth!!

[@TheRezro]

@@markjackson7467 You have really bad info for someone backing himself with some inspector? Moving fast doesn't mean moving effectively. Rommel didn't run out of fuel. Also literally everyone know that despite one milion army of Russia, they actually can't move it. They have after all huge territory, several potentially hostile neighbors, internal ethnic tensions and potential risk of provoking NATO. And that assuming post-Soviet hardware can even work and post soldiers can use guns. Assuming that Putin in fact hold himself from mass shelling, it still doesn't explain lack of air superiority, with bombers going into actions after missile stockpiles started drying. Generally most of what actually has offensive combat value (expedition forces) was already deployed. According to US there are no signs of mobilizations of additional forces, only attempt to unclog machine in hope that Ukraine break fast enough. Lot of analytical data anyway.

[@MsBloodyFox]

"War without logistics is just a riot" excellently put!

[@capitalistdingo]

The Air Force is “missing in action” because it doesn’t have the capability to fly complex missions with multiple allied aircraft against multiple targets in unfriendly airspace. Even in Syria they were flying in pairs or groups of 4 at most. As for it being “unpopular” in Russia it depends on how one measures that. Russians are deeply immersed in Putin’s propaganda and more than a few are receptive to it.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

The war is unpopular, Putin is not. He had about a 70% approval rating in January, and that's down from its peak a few years ago. But that's different from the war, which does seem to be unpopular. If it's unpopular enough to actually matter is another question. By contrast, Biden's approval rating is around 40%.

[@TheRezro]

Yes but it is even before reality hit them. Many Russians stil think that it is operation with 250 killed and minor world sanctions. But they can't hide that for too long.

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c..

[@ezustnyil8414]

who says it is unpopular.. BBC? CNN?

[@Customercf]

@@ezustnyil8414 99% of the people. You are alone my man.

[@westrim]

I dearly hope this improves, but videos from former military, and looking at a map are making this feel much closer than commonly portrayed, and you do a good job of supporting that conclusion. The tens of thousands of troops Ukraine had at Donbas are in serious danger of encirclement, the conscripts sent in the first wave are now mostly supplemented by more dedicated units, and though we don't hear about them much directly (that is, much rarer shots of destroyed vehicles and dead/captured soldiers), Ukraine has suffered significant losses. It's still very much a tossup, and I hope Ukraine pulls through.

[@c.i.a.932]

Why would a Ukrainian victory be better or worse than a Russian one? There would be serious investment into Ukraine to make sure they don’t rebel, so the QOL would be better under Russia.

[@stoyantodorov2133]

I wouldn't call it a tossup. Ukraine army is currently retreating from the eastern front to avoid encirclement. This avoids total annihilation, but how much can they realistically retreat? Retreat beyond Dnieper river and Russia already has achieved 80% of its strategic goals in Ukraine.

[@konfunable]

Agree. I guess coming week will show the fate of the war. But I am sure Ukrainians have plans of retreat from Donbas. That was so obvious scenario that I can't see they would get encircled. On the other hand, I am pretty sure even the most optimistic Ukrainian war scenarios planned sooner or later collapse of Ukrainian regular forces and retreat to partisan warfare. From what I see they only focus on maintaining Kyiv, as it is the most important symbolic center of the country.

[@westrim]

@@c.i.a.932 The time period of 1992-2014 disputes that assessment. Ukraine was a Russian puppet state like Belarus for most of that period, even had the Orange revolution reality check get replaced by another Russian puppet in 2010, and Russia still didn't invest in making themselves an attractive partner to Ukraine, because Russia does not consider Ukrainian prosperity to be in its interest.

[@conqueryourfuture6134]

Yet the locals do not hope they pull through. Givi funeral Donetsk Ukraine all US said Russian terrorist

[@Uberdude6666]

Its a bit alarming if they are indeed holding back the majority of their firepower. It can get a whole lot uglier without escalating to nuclear war. This whole situation though is a bit reminiscent of the Winter War with Finland, where the finns had a lot of initial success due to the red army being disorganized and not using combined arms-tactics properly. Ofc the soviets back then learned from their mistakes soon enough... What I wanna know is, how much of the "will" behind the invasion lies with Putin himself, and how much is with other factions in Russia? Could Putin, if he wanted to, just end the war? Or are there supporters and players in Russia that he too has made promises to that he has to deliver on?

[@mangalores-x_x]

they are not really holding back, their logistics are fucked. Now you have soldiers going hungry and tons of vehicles getting abandoned without fuel. They plainly cannot send ammunition forward in large numbers if fuel and rations are running out. There is no real basis to the idea the Russians are holding back. It is just a nice excuse to them being bad at it. But the destruction they cause is indiscriminate against civilian infrastructure and residential housing

[@YiannissB.]

@@mangalores-x_x But they are holding back. Even thoughy the Ukrainian resistance has so far been exemplary, the Russian army numbers close to a million. Not even 200k Russians are in Ukraine. Yes they've been massively inefficient but they can always send more. God forbid, but if Putin wants it he can turn every Ukrainian city into Grozny.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@mangalores-x_x Logistics are fucked cos of the strategy they chose, which was for a fast campaign. That said, they have the capacity to fix that.

[@Grantzow]

@@YiannissB. They could have billions of troops, that number doesn't matter when they can't feed and supply the ones they already have there.

[@aritakalo8011]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Could go months long, if Kremlin decides to go hard core. It really now is matter of Russian morale vs Ukrainian morale. Who is willing to bleed more. Russia with weeks and months of prep could get steamroller going, but do they bleed more troops compared to what their home front tolerates. If it starts to be tens of thousands of casualties, it's hard to hide. Fixing the railways, building new bridges on place of destroyed ones. Even intentionally waiting until rasputitsa ends. Would take weeks and months, but theoretically Russia could do it. But can the Russian home front morale hold. Will the sanctions bite so deep Russia has to more concentrate on keeping it's own population in check compared to trying to take over Ukraine. Also would it be worth it. It would be ultimate pyrhic victory. Congratulations Kremlin: You have just bought yourself international pariah status, eternal wrath of Ukrainians and decades long reconstruction project. Since you just bombed all of Ukraine to pieces. For what? Simply so one can say "we joined more areas to Russia". At some point the younger higher ups would have to start to go "this makes no sense, you are leaving a mess to us. We gain nothing by this and lose a lot. We continue, we just continue to keep losing, even if we win. Time to cut losses." Question is: Can Putin be made to change his mind or does he have to be made to retire. Can he be made to retire or will there be full on palace coup.

[@KingofCabal]

Imagine people actually fighting for their own country.

[@derdummeasi]

What's your point?

[@Fx_Explains]

@Victor Joseph true.

[@bobbunni8722]

Like donboss in Ukraine

[@crimfan]

All those heavier firepower options that aren't being used are even more taxing on logistics, and they're not capable of doing this long. I totally agree that they're likely to get worse before getting better, though. The US---with the best logistical and support system in the history of the world---was severely taxed by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[@akbtrip555]

This is an interesting view. I read somewhere re Afghanistan when the US withdrew last summer, along with that the logistical operating system, leaving the armed forces struggling.

[@DS-wo8wr]

I wouldn’t say that… we had more of everything in Iraq and Afghanistan…

[@crimfan]

@@DS-wo8wr I'm not saying that the US couldn't supply both wars, just that it had to work hard to keep things like convoys going and the costs of maintaining the troops in the field induced structural issues in the military. The Russians have never been the masters of logistics that the USA has historically been since the Civil War.

[@crimfan]

@@akbtrip555 The Afghan military was clearly a house of cards. Falling as fast as it did... I don't know that anyone truly expected that. The senior leadership bugged out and left anyone beneath them holding the bag.

[@madontherun]

Russia has a huge border with Ukraine and still completely fucked up. Also Afghanistan. There’s no comparison. The coalition launched success invasions of countries, thousands of miles away. The end result and lack of political foresight and understanding was the down fall of the , originally, highly successful invasions.

[@RJT80]

No doubt that this has been a massive embarrassment for Russia. They are nowhere near the level of a Western military. And even if Russia manages to occupy Ukraine they will struggle to hold it significantly.

[@cameronspence4977]

They won't struggle to...they will be completely unable

[@juliomaldonado4028]

The only thing deadly about the Russian military is the nuclear arsenal they possess. Without the nukes, Moscow would have been Westernized long ago.

[@Cynthia_Blackraven_666]

Russia will lose anyway. The real question is how many people will Putin murder before he withdraw or gets taken out.

[@codewraith1]

Why would they struggle to hold it if every struggling Ukraine left died and the rest ran away to the west. It's just unoccupied land now. Or what is the west going to go in and retake the land?

[@thombran]

How exactly has this been an embarrassment? Not a single military observer in the world would expect Ukraine, with over 40 million citizens, to capitulate in anything under 12 months. It's not call of duty. War takes time. This entire comments section has no clue at all about warfare. Russia's goal isn't the occupation of Ukraine. They're going to sit this out patiently and slowly, minimising civilian casualties where possible. Their strategy is clear to see for anyone with a working brain cell.

[@perisaizidanehanapi7931]

Putin's capability in Syria is due to the fact that (1) Russia and Syria are not fraternal countries, but many Russians had relatives in Ukraine which is why they need to show restraint. (2) The war in Syria only require a very small fraction of the Russian armed forces, which means that they need no conscripts to fill in the gap, unlike in Ukraine. (3) Russian logistics are excellent in Syria due to it's small size. However, Ukraine is different. Not to mention the fact that the landscape in Ukraine is full of mud due to the spring thaw. Putin had some successes on the south simply because they had an established military base in Crimea, unlike onthe east and north.

[@MrHarpette]

Putin has said that there will be no (Russian) conscripts in this operation in Ukraine. Do you have data that shows otherwise?

[@perisaizidanehanapi7931]

@@MrHarpette The Russian Defense minister just admitted to the use of conscripts on Ukraine.

[@patrickcloutier6801]

This almost seems like a replay of Finland in 1939-1940. The Reds expected an easy victory in Finland, but were shocked at the tenacity of Finnish resistance. It took several months before the Red Army harnessed its full potential to defeat the Finns.

[@jdheryos4910]

People forget there were two campaigns that Findland and USSR fought. The SOVIET Red Army regrouped after the first winter war which they lost and smashed the Finns so comprehensively that Findland sued for peace after losing territory that wasn't in dispute originally. Simply put they went bacwards. For Finland the out come of WW2 was disastrous.

[@kalle911]

@@jdheryos4910 Considering that it could have been much worse under stalinism, they got a really good result. Especially for being an axis-aligned nation.

[@erikempire318]

We hope, that this will result in a deeply insulting loss for the Russians

[@имяфамилия-с8в1я]

🤣🤣🤣🤦🤦🤦

[@AttilaKattila]

@@jdheryos4910 Sorry but not really Finland also stopped the Russian invading army at ALL fronts in 1944. The Russians were not humiliated only in the Winter War but in both wars, the Winter War and the Continuation War.

[@EAncients]

I'm really liking the new intro graphics, Shirvan!

[@chubbymoth5810]

Yeah,.. kudos1 Looks really slick.

[@digitalnorth]

It reminds me of a certain game of thrones intro

[@simulify8726]

Very unique analysis on this current war situation And I am loving the improvements you made into your motion graphics

[@pawezielinski5467]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oYG9pJSpapiEm7c

[@sumeersamarat706]

Putin is Gautam Buddha compared to NATO war crimes. Vietnam , Serbia , Iraq WMD lie killed 1 million civilians , Syria , Libiya , Yemen , Afganistan Jillian Assang Journalist arrested without reason Guantanamo bay Innocent people arrested without trial and evidence till date..

[@joeledj]

@@sumeersamarat706 NATO crimes against humanity does not justify Putin's crimes against humanity. Such an ignorant argument to try and make.

[@khaccanhle1930]

@@sumeersamarat706 yes, but knowing these facts would require: 1. Effort, 2. Brains 3. Humility 4. Bravery NONE of which these useful idiots have. Isn't it fun being a tool of the financial Elite - taking away our freedoms and prosperity! Look at me, I'm so righteous!

[@sumeersamarat706]

@@joeledj NATO is terrorist organisation so would you like terrorist organisation near your borders?? Obviously no

[@dirkhanekom8323]

What we actually see in the 40 mile convoy is probably a mobile replenishment point according their doctrines where they use a tactical force to protect their massive logistics. It can be seen in the vehicle tracks that are shown in the airial photos.

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c..

[@reflection8578]

I think your behind the 8 ball on this one. Russia has been laying siege to urban populations for a while now. Also Russia has resorted to bringing out there old equipment. I think we all overestimated them in a conventional war.

[@NPJGlobal]

Shirvan is notoriously pro-russia

[@aachoocrony5754]

You 'think' what he 'thinks' is right. Hmm ok. How about, you don't know what he actually thinks and you don't think much of it either.

[@reflection8578]

@@aachoocrony5754 what does that even mean? Hahaha. What you opinion on the actual topic?

[@aachoocrony5754]

@@reflection8578 It's good to see you find it funny. Read it again-maybe it applies to you too?

[@reflection8578]

@@aachoocrony5754 bro your speaking nonsense. It sounds like a 10 year old is trying to be a philosophy teacher. Just tell me what you meant or let’s move on. Your comment makes no sense to my original comment.

[@julianmitchell1907]

I'm impressed how you manage to stay only 2-3 days behind in your material. Other strategists have been over a week behind. Great work!

[@rum81]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/mGXag5eljNWqZtk

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c..

[@seanjmy9214]

"No Battle Plan ever survives contact with the enemy" -Helmuth Von Moltke

[@peterbayne7227]

Russia thinking Ukraine would roll over like in Crimea, 2014, sounds like a classic case of an army prepared for the last war.

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c..

[@Melkor54]

it will

[@thombran]

Do you really think Russian top brass thought Ukraine would "roll over"? We're talking about an exceptionally trained and well-armed nation. They know exactly what they're doing. Ukraine was never going to fall in 2 weeks. After preliminary light shelling, the main battle divisions will cut off supply, c&c, and other military targets - this will be the phase with the highest casualties. The next phase will include years of military occupation that will be called something politically correct ("demilitarization police" etc etc). Just like Iraq, a modern invasion will take many years. Common people expect this all to be done in hours, it's simply ridiculous. Especially when it's clear Russia does not want a war with heavy civilian casualty. Russia will regardless make quick progress as it is advancing very quickly, similar to Germany in France. This despite the fact the planning was done in weeks (not months) and that Russia is heavily outnumbered - yet their kill rate is exceptionally high and the attrition rate is exceptionally low. Garbage reporting from garbage media won't change the situation on the ground: this invasion, and the occupation thereafter will take years and years. And no, Putin will not be ousted and Russia's economy will not collapse. Unfortunately there is no hopeful outcome here - the end of Ukraine is already here.

[@Melkor54]

@@thombran flirting with nato and allowing nazis to run rampant have consequences

[@maxr2743]

​@@thombran Ease off on the copium. It isn't Ukraine that's being bailed on by the entire rest of the world. If the end of Ukraine is already here, nobody but you seems to have gotten the memo.

[@AMBD90]

I love how non biased this channel is. Thank god we have people like you.

[@aachoocrony5754]

He sounds non-biased to you? you're pretty gullible

[@saumyacow4435]

The destruction of cities is actually diverting resources away from military objectives. I'm pretty sure the Russian military knows this. What's becoming clear is that this destruction is really a tactic to drive Ukraine to cede to Russia's terms - including constitutional change. Its also an acknowledgement that Russia's military position is weak. Ukraine might concede Crimea and hold referenda in the disputed regions, but its not going to change its constitution. So, the war will continue. My guess is that Ukraine will eventually have to take territory from Crimea to force Russia to the table on its own terms.

[@falcon55551]

If the gas/oil resources around Crimea are true. This war will not end anytime soon. The loss of life will be immense on both sides. I truly hope we find a way to fully cut off from the russian gas needs.

[@cianakril]

The only cities destroyed are the ones where Ukrainian military use residential buildings as cover up. The cities surrendered by Ukraine without a fight are all living normal lives.

[@StanislavG.]

@@cianakril lol you sound like The Borg

[@aachoocrony5754]

Destruction of which cities? where do you get this lol? turn off your tv. Wow, you know of Crimea. Can you point it on the map?

[@aachoocrony5754]

@@StanislavG. Borg? you watch too much brainwashing content. Oh sorry, I finally get it. Hahaha good one

[@blueridger28]

Yall see that tank jump? As a former US Mech soldier that made my body hurt.

[@TheCameltotem]

Was about to say. Even if the tank holds up im guessing those inside would be bruised lmao

[@ezbody]

Not really, once your ass swells up, it's not that bad.

[@54788654478087654345]

I was thinking something similar. I can't imagine that the best engineering in the world could make a system resilient to that type of shock without being so expensive hat you couldn't implement it on a large scale. And then again, I'm not an engineer of any sort.

[@danceartist8203]

@@54788654478087654345 I am, and you're right hahaha

[@sausje]

Who says they still have these weapons? Anyone outside Russia confirmed that in recent times?? I honestly doubt their military and equipment is as good as people are thinking..

[@dont4143]

The reason why this 40 k (not 60k) convoy seems like it has stopped is because the crews all drove several days and needed a rest. Also the Russians found out the defenders were very good at what they do, so the Russians have not had a chance to build their supply depot yet but in a few days they will when Kyiv falls and the government collapses. Hope Ukraine will get it's freedom in the near future.

[@floridianbat]

Real

[@andrewkhan4561]

Every time something big happens I think to myself "I'll wait to see what Caspian Report has to say." Great content as always friend!

[@ommsterlitz1805]

He is very wrong on saying Putin isn't attacking civilians; he is destroying strategic cities like Kharkiv to the ground with massive artillery and rockets with no distinction between civilian or military, many case of Russians soldiers were filmed committing crimes against civilians

[@Dollymix001]

@@ommsterlitz1805 "destroying strategic cities like Kharkiv to the ground with massive artillery" this simply did not happen.... most of karkiv is untouched.....

[@andrewkhan4561]

@@ommsterlitz1805 what you say is true but I don't think that contradicts what Caspian Report is saying here. From what I understand, the Russian forces switched to attacking civilians once their initial hopes for a swift, low-civilian-casualty operation proved ineffective. It was their Plan B (where as, in other conflicts, it has been their Plan A).

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@maryanchabursky9148]

Yes politics plays a huge role on the so called "Russian restraint". However there are a number of key military reasons why it is impossible to bring to bear it's artiler a full force. The first is time, Russia wanted a fast moving campaign, deploying artillery with it's full degree would be vary time consuming. A factor in this is also the mud and logistics issues, which make full deployment impossible. Russia has almost run out of Kaliber missles. The other main factor is that Ukrainian is not Chechnya or Afganistan, Ukrainian military is a professional combined force, it too has artillery, aviation, and (with American help) recon. This means that Ukraine can counter Russian artilery massing with it's own artillery (as it has in the north), drones, and even with guided missles with a substantial range. Ukrainians can also counter attack against poorly protected artillery so a large Russian armoured presents with established positions is required. It isn't out of "mercy" that Russia dosen't bomb it's that up till now it hasn't been able to, certinly not with the timeline it plnned, but even with a longer one it can't use the same liberty in deployment as in other conflicts.

[@TheRezro]

They did plan and do use artillery. Problem is that they didn't expect so heavy resistance and huge part of they core assets was surrounded, making it hard to utilize if not destroyed (outside towns on East). People also miss it is about initial phase week ago. Now Putin in full Grozne mod and yet not much of progres.

[@Jarod-vg9wq]

Thank you for pointing all this out it now that I see it it makes since.

[@АлександрВасильев-ж8ы3в]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/ZoLTlHRmid1mjpI

[@АлександрВасильев-ж8ы3в]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/aHLUmp2afausha8

[@maryanchabursky9148]

@@TheRezro exactly, your not dealing with relatively lightly armed Chechen fighters, it's not hit and run tactics that are the main thing holding Russia back but the conventional military of Ukraine.

[@nickolayinstructor3673]

@CaspianReport, why do you claim that russian rockets didn't target military infrastructure, airbases... That's is not True. Airbase in Lutsk, Vynnitsya, Ivano-Frankivsk airport...

[@antoniozeros]

Have in account that the video takes time to produce, having a three day delay - more or less - on facts is a huge accomplishment

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

He's speaking relatively, not absolutely. Also you can expect more shelling in recent days as they switch from their original plan to a new one that grinds down the enemy. These videos don't get made overnight, and are always a little out of date.

[@FinehomesofNewHampshire]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Huge miscalculations and assumptions in this video.

[@TheRezro]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn They already did that weak ago. Video is about initial phase.

[@TheRezro]

@@FinehomesofNewHampshire More on side of the trolls.

[@Nonyobiz]

I love the quote at the opening of this video. "War without logistics is just a riot."

[@bhatkrishnakishor]

Wendover Production and Caspian Report have done well covering this topic of logistics in war.

[@undefinedvariable8085]

Wendover Productions surprised me. Caspian Report; well they've set the bar, wouldn't expect anything less frankly.

[@baconman2.052]

Wendover didn't acknowledge Russia is holding back, like at all. They really said Russia's invasion stalling was 100% due to poor planning, which is just irresponsible

[@spacecraftcarrier4135]

Good Times Bad Times' recent coverage every 2 or so days is also solid!

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c

[@bjkarana]

@@baconman2.052 time will tell and they could both be correct. Russia may have held back in the first week, then decided to go full power, only to have their historical logistical problems make their full-power effort seem like it's them "holding back" when in reality, this is the most they can do because of their lousy logistics.

[@yunchenwang4075]

I don't recall any Russian militaries talking about their plan, where are these "plans" coming from

[@manawa3832]

The US opened up the first month of Operation Enduring Freedom by launching or dropping 12 THOUSAND high yield assets on Afghanistan. It used even more cruise missiles in Iraq's shock and awe. NATO and its coalitions have been absolutely ruthless in it's wars in the Middle East. By comparison, Russia has the kid gloves on in Ukraine.

[@MrCHAMMOND]

Yeah because they have to. They had no problem leveling Syria and Chechnya.

[@tlgaoztrk]

I have been watching so called news channels since the invasion began. This is the most comprehensive and to the point commentary on the military situation so far. 10 minutes of clear explanation of the military strategy (with a minute of stock video website commercial) is all you need to understand what the hell is going on

[@stonytotten1315]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/pWHcd31uZaenmdU

[@stefanb6539]

I am not sure how to square the notion of Russia holding back with the reports of shelling residential areas and using cluster ammunition. These seem to be terror tactics with little immediate tactical purpose. There has been explanation by Putin fans, that this is only because the Ukrainian army is hiding there, but that doesn't fit the images. How many Ukrainian tanks can hide in an apartment block, that is clearly targeted by artillery?

[@nekocekoBiHMK]

You square that notion by realizing you're being force fed propaganda on an hourly basis.

[@Visiomax]

well-well-well-done sir! I really appreciate you putting in so much effort to keep us updated on the current situation! This is amazing and despite the high frequency in videos, the quality remains superb! I'm going to be glad to join your patreon as soon as my finances allow it. You really deserve it!

[@unseenbones1569]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eojHppmojquaY7c..

[@grish9]

Kasparov: Putin doesn't know how to play chess, so he plays poker.

[@TheSalamander_]

He's playing blackjack at the moment, and bust means the nukes go off.

[@hollywoodlibertarian]

I prefer connect four.

[@bassambouhamad7935]

Pray for Ukraine.

[@arisblood]

There is a saying in the US military it goes like "strategy is for the amateurs, while logistics is for the professionals". I can't help but laugh at the intro of this video 0:01. war without logistics is a riot, wow hehe.

[@mcmarkmarkson7115]

Yea, like supplying the people left behind when bitching out of Afghanistan. Pro gamer move right there, first pay the terrrists then politely and asap fuck off for them to get back in power so you can visit again once you feel like it. USA fuck yea showing the world that power is all that counts fuck yea. USA USA

[@RedRocket4000]

@@mcmarkmarkson7115 That was a major failure of occupation a different type of thing. But like Ukraine if your not willing to go to war with people surviving weapons don't bother staying. US took Afghanistan with ease, same with Iraq. Blew the peace and unwilling to send anywhere close to enough troops.

[@obe22099]

I get the impression that it's holding back because they're literally being held back. Most of damage in Syria was due to barrel bombs and air to ground bombardment while having complete air power superiority. Lack of control over the airspace and no access to unlimited cruise missiles makes it obvious that they did their best due to low moral and logistics. The very weapons needed to overpower Ukraine is being destroyed with most not having the range to hit Kiev directly. Russia has shown the world that it's military is far from the hype. Sadly i think Russia will win but at a tragic cost to themselves and Ukraine.

[@selebogosegatlaka4190]

No, they are holding back because they are not interested in harming Ukrainians but rather removing the current regime and they put someone who will be neutral. If you look at the map, they are trying to encircle Ukraine, and their army surrenders and force a negotiation but due to logistical problems, and the Ukraine army destroying roads and bridges into cities, their convoy stalled.They do not have enough time, sanctions will kick in and possible social unrest will hit home. They will have to be ruthless.

[@justinemot2282]

@@selebogosegatlaka4190 they are not holding back. putin never holds back - he is rather prone to overreact when losing. That's why now when losing he started shelling civilians & if they have a chance they will strike. But the regime is a kleptocracy first of all - thus army always was a milking cow for corrupt generals. The propaganda though is so good that they themselves believed they are cool & all. But it's like a drunken hobo - screaming about his previous might & harrasing passers-by.

[@fangdog29]

@@justinemot2282 so you understand Putin better than Shirvan?

[@magnem1043]

They are doing a long planned siege mate, not holding back, 3 days of driving a convoy rests outside the city, the city will be artillery rubble, where men with rifles in windows will be limited

[@justinemot2282]

@@magnem1043 yeah, putin is loosing as planned.

[@Andy0770]

Ukraine is 20% larger than Iraq. During 2003 Iraq invasion US, along with UK, Australia and Poland coalition took 26 days to reach Baghdad. Iraqi forces that time were much weaker after sanctions and 1991 war. The combatants involved the Iraq invasion is twice as much than Russia. Still, it took 26 days minus days of "shock and awe" air raid bombardment.

[@akacicaa]

Iraq is thousands of kms away. Ukraine is literally 1km from russia...

[@TheEverfever]

It's 600 km from the Gulf to Baghdad. It's 150 km from Belarus to Kyiv. Which is where the Russians are attacking from.

[@pawezielinski5467]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oYG9pJSpapiEm7c

[@quand_meme]

@@akacicaa and Russia is gigantic, they have troops over the ridiculously long borders and they cant let to have these borders to be not secured. It takes weeks to move their forces from far regions.

[@richardgrey4631]

@@medved3027 NATO and the US are not the same, you do know that NATO did not invade Iraq right?

[@Justffffff]

thank you for your analytic

[@MrKorton]

A fullscale invasion at handbrake speed. Seems like a recipe of failure.

[@54788654478087654345]

I don't know, I love it when my brakes fail when I'm driving 70 miles per hour...

[@magnem1043]

Its called setting up for a siege, Russia is a military that depends on artillery superiority, the destructive force there is not something they are scared to use, they can level parts of Kiev to rubble forcing populations to flee and furthering conditions for victory

[@RedRocket4000]

No handbrake this was typical Blitzkrieg a rush forward to take key location and disrupt a confused opponent. You don't make massive artillery attacks when launching a lightning war. Craters block roads and attack routes. Only limited fast bombardments are used. This was incompetence on Russian side and well planed defense. Russia probably thinking the Ukrainians would fold. The massive artillery was for SOVIET typical big build up and massive attack vs well dug in enemy not what they did for quick take over. And massive artillery attacks often failed on taking cities. Later in the war the SOVIET also did German style war of maneuver stuff and artillery took a big back seat as SOVIET coordination of artillery fire with troops not good and does not look like it improved much.

[@johnirby8847]

The US went light handed in Iraq but was still able to use combined arms tactics effectively. Logistically Russua borders Ukraine. The US was able to supply across the world. This seriously makes Russia's military look incompetent.

[@omaral-maitah181]

but to be fair, Iraq didn't get any support compared to Ukraine, those 17,000 javelin anti-tank missiles donations alone are a huge game-changer in my opinion ... Also, the morals of the soldiers are different ... Russian soldiers now don't have the motivation to kill any Ukrainian civilians, because they care about them "in away" whereas the US soldiers didn't give a fxxx in Iraq, so the use of violence and force was more possible for them

[@considerthis410]

Putin should be afraid of America.

[@darylvoyager9212]

In US "light handed" means "shock and awe" a plain murderball strategy.

[@johnirby8847]

@@omaral-maitah181 The javelin missiles do make a difference. I wouldn't say the US didn't give a f*** about Iraqi people...the US toppled the government...installed new leaders...but also kept the water and electricity going and built hospitals to treat people. Building hospitals and keeping the lights and water on after attacking a civilian population is an even bigger logistical wonder to pull off from across the world!

[@TheJokerx420]

A lot of people forget or don’t know that Iraq was something like the 5th largest military in the world at the time of the 2003 invasion

[@georgewashington5746]

It’s crazy seeing military tactics that are so simple they still exist to kill the enemy’s morale

[@myrmyr-v4z]

Привіт з України. Ми Перемагаемо. Ми Переможемо.

[@vivekkaushik9508]

I love the production quality of these videos. Keep them coming Shrivam.

[@hafiz9156]

The fact that people think they know everything just based off on what they see in the media is just ridiculous.

[@TP-ie3hj]

Yes, it is beyond ridiculous it is absurd. Ukraine is a massive sized country. Two armies are fighting for it. Thats it! It just does not make for great videos or news stories, nor does it allow for the arm chair generals to weigh in. If I went by the Western media and its never ending list of "experts" I would think Russia was already defeated. I was bale to look at their propaganda for several days but now its being blocked. So its harder to see what they have to say now.

[@thomas19994]

@@TP-ie3hj and why that's a problem?

[@LowStuff]

welcome to a new age of information warfare, old boy.

[@thomas19994]

I can't actually understand why propaganda from a totalitarian country is considered information, somebody please help me because it just seems dumb

[@LowStuff]

@@thomas19994 It's not about facts but opinions. That's the thing with democracy. If you can sway a population/an electorate enough, you can create or sabotage policies. We've seen russia work on this with promoting right-wing groups, covid-conspiracies etc in european countries and north america. Channels like RT and Sputnik were creating an alternative narrative and were slowly creating an audience of people who simply did not believe in objective reality. The biggest weakness of democracy is that it depends on the electorate being informed and aware of the quality of the information they receive.

[@theroof6378]

The Russians know that if they destroy some places, they will still have to rebuild them. With this in mind, I think Russia is not using its full force, or is at least trying to win without destroying a lot of infrastructure.

[@vasvas8914]

Russians are not there to build anything. They ready leave scorched earth if only they call the shots on it

[@maximstec6885]

Captured Russian soldiers have told that they were unready to really fight with Ukrainian army. They thought that it would be a quick easy war without much effort and have not prepared enough

[@magnem1043]

Russia is there for territory, NATO members closing in to Russia is like Russia having the US prodding their side, remember ww2 Cold war massive eagle US and Russia bear leaving it 50/50 peace? Russias perspective is not that anymore when missile def system is encircling

[@reginaldbrown-taylor1202]

The largest parking lot ,in the world! Slava Ukraine!

[@HakunaMatata-os1og]

0:01 "War without logistics is just a riot" Awesome quote from you, as always. That crew looks absolutely resolute and badass, like a real-life Ukraine version of "Fury".

[@Brismo7]

So BLM was an unofficial army...

[@homefrontforge]

BLM had logistics. Someone organized and paid for the bus rides into theater. Someone arranged and paid for the pallets of bricks that magically appeared...oh they had/have logistics alright. And the war is not over.

[@cactustactics]

@@homefrontforge yeah it turns out when people organise behind a cause that's important to them, things get done. That's why the suppression was out in force. All our rights and freedoms are hard-won, because people organised, showed up, and stood their ground while the establishment did their best to put them down. Demanding better takes work and personal sacrifice It always gets whitewashed to "people made their case politely and everyone agreed the discrimination was actually bad" because nobody wants to be on the wrong side of history, and they want to convince people that's how change happens. It ain't, that's not the history of people's struggles. And if you're on the wrong side of that struggle, telling yourself "some sinister, powerful force is making this happen" is just you trying to convince yourself you're not really doing what it seems like you're doing, attacking ordinary people trying to make their and others' lives better and fight injustice

[@maxamedaxmedn6380]

"War without logistics is just a riot"😋😋

[@abhyudaysarkar5012]

Historically Russia was good at Rioting.

[@robertmiller5277]

If the invading soldiers weren't well-motivated to attack their resistant "cousins", that could have had a real effect.

[@theflyingspaghettimonster6462]

@Artoria Pendragon I guess its easier to drop a bomb and than to kill people close up. And you can bomb as much as you want, in the end you win a war in the dirt

[@Anthony-db7cs]

They're not cousins. Just because they're white and share a language with less lexical similarity than some romance languages, does not make them the same people.

[@RedRocket4000]

@@Anthony-db7cs Well many centuries ago they were the same people but the Mongols killed most and the rest fled west except for the most North province that surrendered in advance to the Mongols. They were a combination of Swedish (Viking) and married into Eastern Slavs. But in the west the remainders mixed with Western Slavs and other and under various rule of non Russian groups moved back into these old lands. Thus in a way they are cousins but that use means not the same people. They don't speak the same language and thus are no longer the same people. If you wish think 4th cousins three times removed they are not first cousins or even second. The Russians have long claimed the area as after the Prince of Kiev the head of the Rus(Vikings) killed by the Mongols and later the Mongols gave the Northern Rus leader the title of Prince of Kiev. And Kiev was the capital of the combined Rus empire which had broken up divided between seven sons before the Mongol invasion. But in many ways that gives the Ukraine a claim for all of Russia. These things have to be put aside. Unfortunately Putin seams to have bought into the idea of reestablishing the Russian Empire there even been complaints about US occupation of Alaska and Oregon.

[@Anthony-db7cs]

@@RedRocket4000 we all originated out of Africa and share a common ancestor. Stop with your historical fairytale crap from the last 1,000 years when humans have been around for longer than 200,000

[@gengis737]

@@Anthony-db7cs They are cousin, with a lot of mixed couples, families on both side of the frontier, mutual understanding and bilinguism. And russian-speaking Eastern Ukrainians fight the invader, contrary to all Putin's prevision. Citizenship defines a country, not ethnicity or language. That's the blunder of all rightist.

[@youngsixty7395]

Russian car crash compilations will hold the country together strongly. 🤔

[@fatherfreddie8512]

"War always escalates" ..... Very important to keep that in mind 😣 🙏🏽

[@armandeepsingh1843]

Play stupid games, Get stupid results

[@khusseinkhomeini]

Wow! A million subs. I remember starting uni many years ago when I first started watching Caspian Report. He had less than 14k subs. Amazing job brother. Keep up the grind.

[@artziegler2715]

Zelensky is not Arbenz, stepping down from power to prevent a bloodbath and he's neither Allende refusing to sacrifice his people but sacrificing himself. He's an actor and he knows dead civilians attract empathy and feed the narrative of good vs. Evil.

[@bmedicky]

Wrong. He recognizes that Ukrainians, dominated and abused by Russia for centuries, will not surrender themselves without a fight. They are willing to die for their freedom, and he is saying so their behalf.

[@animeXcaso]

L'Ukraine meurt mais ne se rend pas!