New Batteries: It’s Not All Hype

[@robtweed1955]

I've often wondered where the Gartner Hype Cycle itself is on the Gartner Hype Cycle

[@alieninmybeverage]

@@robtweed1955 just square the result!

[@xantiom]

Don't break the matrix with your recursions haha

[@timothyvanderschultzen9640]

42.

[@AndyG-_-]

Good point 😀 "Gartner - our hype is ahead of the hype cycle!"

[@marecare77]

I am often wondering when this ycle is allowed to proceed in the current western economic enviroment.

[@Tn_jed001]

I have a PhD in chemistry and I have two friends with chemistry PhD’s who work on battery technology for major US R&D companies. One works to improve existing Li-ion and the other on solid state Li-ion. Both think the best improvement in energy density for batteries we can hope for in the next decade is about 10-20%. That’s not trivial but to have practical battery powered airplanes we need a minimum of 5-10x improvement and realistically about 15x.

[@victorhopper6774]

where have your buddies been? yoshino has been selling a better improvment than that since at least january.

[@justinw1765]

@@victorhopper6774 Nope. Somebody did a tear down of one of those and found that it was not only "hyped", but outright deceptive. At best, it could be considered a semi solid state battery design. And the battery pouch still caught fire when shot with an arrow.

[@killrade4434]

​@@victorhopper6774that battery was found to be just lithium. They lied.

[@victorhopper6774]

@@killrade4434 ok. ssb[s will have even more lithium. regular lithium batteries don't really have much lithium in them.

[@JosePineda-cy6om]

which means an electric plane powered by batteries will always be a dream. Could *possibly* be made, if instead of batteries these planes received energy thru microwaves, either from ground stations or beawed from space, though i guess in both cases the economics won't be there, either. Nothing beats the energy density of chmical fuels!!

[@stillatwork]

The problem with new battery tech is not what is possible, its what can be mass produced and had a long usuable lifespan. Most new battery tech fails at one or both of these checks. So when the press will glow about capacity or charge time and skip over those two points, then you know its bunk.

[@wasd____]

Cost is also a decisive factor. If a new battery can store 10x the energy but costs 20x more than an existing competitor, it's technologically a better battery but no one will buy it (outside of maybe niche applications where weight is at a big premium) because you'd still be paying twice as much for the same amount of battery capacity.

[@stillatwork]

@wasd____ cost can be mitigated by volume production and if it's worth it in terms of improvement over lifespan, capacity, charge times, etc. Cost is a factor but not as large as one, as you might initially think

[@Cider4144]

Recyclability is also a factor for new batteries.

[@stillatwork]

@Cider4144 only if the cost remains high, if the cost comes down, then it's just a talking point for environmentalists but has no bearing on the economics. Many lithium recyclers are doing OK but not as great as they thought because the cost of new lithium batteries has dropped significantly, so the cost of recycling is not significantly cheaper than just acquiring more raw materials. Sounds good on a speech, though.

[@oasntet]

It's not just those two factors. I've got an amazing battery tech for you that meets those two so well they've been available for over a century and some still work. Nickel iron batteries are extremely stable and long-lived, and so straightforward to manufacture you can do it on your dining room table. For some reason, though, people want higher energy density, though for battery storage farms I don't actually see why. Land is cheap on the outskirts of basically every grid, why use a short-lifespan chemistry when you can stack batteries that last for decades as high as you want? Oh, right, a human has to top up the distilled water in them every now and then, and humans are expensive. At least, humans in the west are, because we've broken our economic system so much manual labor is the biggest cost of just about everything.

[@ermingtonplumbing442]

Her analogising the “hype cycle” to her New Year’s resolutions is a perfect example of what I love about Sabines work

[@johnbutler5650]

“ The Trough of Disillusionment “ pretty much describes my life since 2009.

[@thebrowns5337]

Either you got married or turned 40 in 2009.

[@HerbertLandei]

It's also a cool band name...

[@thomasrutledge5941]

Your sense of humor is indicative of "The Slope of Enlightenment". =D

[@Cider4144]

I feel your pain...since 1976😮

[@andyoates8392]

All you can eat menu? 😋😁🤓💚♾️

[@mr88cet]

(2:38 - At the risk of sounding pedantic, “Energy Density“ is energy per unit volume. Energy per unit mass is called “Specific Energy.“)

[@Tailspin80]

Important difference depending on whether you have to lug it around with you and whether space is at a premium.

[@mr88cet]

@@Tailspin80, indeed! For example, in stationary battery-storage systems, Energy Density is generally more important than Specific Energy, whereas in battery-powered aircraft, Specific Energy is more critical; weight is “everything,” so to speak. In a passenger car both matter, but arguably neither “reins supreme.”

[@johnpawlicki1184]

One battery feture that is generally overlooked is operational temperature range. Vehicles have a wide temperature range in which they must operate. Charging and dischargine need to be effective at extreme temperatures before they are practical for many things, including vehicles.

[@janetrussell3288]

Check CATLs Shenxing battery. At -20 degrees celcius charged to 80% in 24 minutes. But it is worth noting that Norway is cold and has a lot of EVs.

[@jonathancano6387]

Yeah, making a better battery for an EV is hard. There is more leeway in battery tech for short term storage on the power grid because economies of scale may allow you to control the environment of the battery more efficiently.

[@sebastiansandvik825]

Not so much an issue for vehicles anymore, as new cars tend to have very good active temperature management. More of an issue for things like phones that overheat easily.

[@phils744]

Why, don't we just adopt water as energy source. Separate the hydrogen and burn the only by product is water, a closed system. Earth covered by 80% water. Unlimited supply simple

[@Avetho]

@@sebastiansandvik825 It becomes problematic when you're draining the battery to keep the battery warm enough to have a useful range. It gives off the same kind of conversational energy as "I used the stones to destroy the stones" to say "I'm depleting the battery to warm the battery" I would much prefer advancements to engine tech to let us go up from our current 57% highest thermal efficiency to like 65 or 70%, although we technically have reached almost 75% but the US Military has a firm grip on the exclusive supply contract for the only company that has managed that feat so far, though Mazda seems to be working hard to catch up. Liquid Piston has likely begun delivering the diesel-capable XTS-210 by now since last year it was announced that they were preparing to send the first one out for the Army to stress test in 2024. Its very cool, but sadly since the US Military has their firm grasp on the best of ICE tech, we're stuck in the lurch with big corpos shoving EVs down our throats with no regard for the blatant superiority of PHEVs.

[@marinonacci1816]

CATL has 18,000 (yes eighteen thousand) engineers and technicians working in R&D alone. 250 of which hold doctorates.

[@swistedfilms]

And brother let me tell you, it's chaos in the lunch room at the corporate office every day! Except for those snobby 250 PhDs. They get the Executive Menu, which includes the fancy potato chips AND a club sandwich!

[@shawnbottom4769]

That many engineers sounds like the ultimate "herding cats" scenario.

[@2ndfloorsongs]

That many people, no matter how they are organized, constitutes a bureaucracy with all the "efficiencies" that entails. Any progress in this field will be made by smaller companies with fewer people.

[@bruceyboy7349]

​@@boblatkey7160Pointless comment

[@2ndfloorsongs]

@grindupBaker I'm going to assume you're joking; because, if you weren't, I'd tell you that of the few people I know that have a purpose, employment ain't it.

[@MarkHidden]

There is also the category of battery storage, which can be divided into three main categories: fixed storage, transportation storage, and personal device storage. Each of these categories can be further subdivided. 1. Fixed Storage: • Grid Storage • Home Energy Storage • Commercial and Industrial Storage • Utility-Scale Storage 2. Transportation Storage: • Electric Vehicles (EVs) • Hybrid Vehicles • Electric Bikes and Scooters • Marine Batteries • Aerospace Batteries 3. Personal Device Storage: • Smartphones • Laptops and Tablets • Wearables • Portable Chargers • Portable Medical Devices each catagory could demad a diffrent type of battery.

[@Skippy-s1g]

They all come under the greater heading : useless crap

[@vannersp]

Great article. No spin, just straight up, concise, reporting on the lay of the land. That made it very easy to digest.

[@nmrnm137]

Thing is, for all the naysaying over the years, lithium ion batteries have in fact improved significantly over the past 20 years. I remember when Nokia phones used to have 1000 to 1400 mAh stubby but thick Li-Ion batteries, but now we routinely see 4000 to 5000 mAh batteries in much slimmer (although bigger horizontally and vertically) phones. The two things that reverse the undeniable progress of batteries is much more power hungry workloads - phones these days do a LOT more than play Snake and take GSM quality calls, but people also use their phones for much MUCH longer periods of time. Nobody was glued to their phone for hours at a time in the 90s and early 00s. Battery technology improvements are hyped way too much in the near term, but people are totally oblivious to how much better things have gotten over a 10 or 20 year time span.

[@danieloberhofer9035]

Oh, I can assure you that I was glued to my phone for hours at a time in the late '90s - playing Snake! 😅

[@jamesduncan578]

OMG, has it been 10-20 years already, I must hurry up, running out of time. Good luck to all.

[@twiliteblue6053]

@@jamesduncan578 "Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so."

[@loganmedia1142]

What is the actual volume of these modern batteries? The reality is if the batteries have more capacity today it is a fairly small improvement. I very much doubt anyone is squeezing a 5000 mAh battery into the same volume as previously occupied by a 1400 mAh one. I am of course open to seeing some evidence of this. What has really happened is that the power consumption of these devices has improved, which is why every year you still get the same dismal 24 hours or so of battery life that smartphones have been getting for many years. If batteries were actually improving that life would be getting longer. On the other hand an old Nokia phone with an 1100 mAh battery could run for a week or more, because those things really did use very little power. That lifespan also has nothing to do with anyone being glued to their phone. Smartphones still have dismal battery life when used sparingly.

[@loganmedia1142]

@@danieloberhofer9035 In fact one of my children still plays a game on one of our old phones. Can play for hours on the old battery still sitting in the phone and that phone will run for much longer than a modern phone that is mostly used to send or read the occasional text message during the day.

[@stuckinlodi100]

In Canada electric power milk trucks achieved 25 MPH and delivered dairy products reliably. This practice began in the 1950s & ended in the 60s. The batteries slid in on rollers and were changed as needed. The oil boom arguably overwhelmed any desire to continue.

[@thebrowns5337]

We had electric milk floats in the UK too - I remember them as a child in the 70's and they were considered 'old' then. Now we have people thrashing noisey diesels at 4am in the morning, spoiling our sleep and our lungs.

[@patrickday4206]

The first autos were electric Edison vehicles that swapped out batteries for charging with a fresh charged set had the battery repair manual when I was younger. Mostly delivery vehicles delivering goods in cities

[@phillipbatho3213]

But consider the energy needed to produce that milk in an age where only a small percentage of the population are farmers. A single 200kw tractor being used for tillage, planting, or harvest of food for cows needs to operate for long days to do it's job in the short time frames available. 10 hours of delivering 200kw would require a 2,000kWh battery. That's twenty times as much battery capacity as a Tesla model S has. You should look up the price and weight of such a thing and also consider the need to charge many of them on a rural electric grid overnight.

[@tilapiadave3234]

@@phillipbatho3213 A 200kw tractor does NOT run at or near 200kw ,,, that is FULL load and nearly never happens in reality. Rural grid ran on a SMR ?

[@OurnameisLegion66]

Electric fork lift trucks use the exact same battery technology and are swapped out in the same or similar way,they've also had regeneration recharging (from braking) for 40 years.Common working practices that are still used today.

[@kylebeatty7643]

I didn't know I wanted a unicorn that does my taxes before I saw this video but now that is the only thing I want.

[@ryanparcell7384]

Introducing the newest in tax software - Tax Unicorn!

[@swistedfilms]

Keep hope alive! I went to a yodeling Bigfoot concert back in 1983. So a unicorn that does taxes isn't out of the question!

[@bagofmanytricks]

It's a common misconception, in reality all unicorns can do taxes.

[@TopperPenquin]

I hear dead people

[@williamyoung9401]

You shouldn't joke. Batteries will soon be doing our taxes! Or the Machines will turn us into batteries and we'll be doing taxes for the robots. 🤓

[@MalbecSnaps]

This tracks with my experiences. I remember when OLEDs were first announced and hyped, only for the excitement to die down. I kept pining for the tech to mature for a while after. A few years later small displays started coming out, and now large panels are becoming fairly affordable.

[@aaronjennings8385]

Why isn't there a pit of ignorance hidden on the path to disillusionment, before the boat of productivity sails without delay?

[@fredygump5578]

I think you need to plot the integral of the function for that...

[@firstnamesurname6550]

By lack of objectivity in the witness of the supposedly 'new emergent phenom' ... 'the discovery' drives irrational emotional excitation, fantasies about the future increase, hype increase, PR agents spread the inflated expectations ... then, the world begins to claim for faster outcomes from the hyped discovery ... the discoverers can not deliver ... the investors retire funding ... the discovery return to the lab ... competing in the underground with related 'discoveries' ... while seeking scarce funds to survive its development cycle ... meanwhile, the standard established procedures stay robust by the investors betting in secure investments ... If the discoverers were Objective, they would not hype the discovery until it becomes fully and realistically implementable with the current paradigm that their discovery can improve and/or replace ... but Hyping brings Money ... then, How can they get rip of a PR strategy that can bring capital to their discovery ?? ... The system seems to be prompted to finance - in short terms - hyped statements around basic needs ... but at the same time, to retire funding once the discoveries doesn't deliver what they promised during the hyping phase ...

[@brothermine2292]

There is, but I wouldn't call it a "pit." The ignorance is part of the excitement.

[@Zeuskabob1]

The pit of ignorance forms when the product takes much longer to mature than people take to lose interest. Edit: You're absolutely right. There is a pit of ignorance that's caused by the inverse of the hype: denigration. Sometimes that denigration just comes from the enthusiasts who try to hide their interest in the valuable technology, but often times it's also stoked up by typical human behavior.

[@shvrdavid]

Because the truth is far less exciting, than fiction....

[@jamesbuckley8917]

I'm a chemical engineer in the battery R&D field. I started working at Duracell in 1983. Back then we only had nickel-cadmium and lead-acid for rechargeable batteries. There were no cell phones, no laptop or tablet computers and no electric vehicles(only some forklifts and golf carts running on very heavy lead-acid batteries). Initially we developed lithium metal rechargeable chemistries and some matured enough for use in consumer electronics, but safety(fires) was an issue and the successful companies made these products for military, medical and aerospace use only(technician replaceable only, not for the general public).

[@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344]

Gartner is not an IT company. It is a consultancy.

[@bartektrame8801]

How did they get it wrong?? Big difference

[@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344]

@@bartektrame8801 Gartner is a consultancy that is famous for making easy to interpret charts. The more famous one is what is called a Magic Quadrant. Where a hype cycle talks about where new technologies are on the adoption curve, the magic quadrant talks about the positioning of firms within a given market.

[@SeriesOfYouTubes]

It consultancy

[@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344]

​@@SeriesOfKZbinsGartner is not an IT consultancy. It is a management consulting firm, best known for its marketing analysis.

[@williamyoung9401]

BIG difference. It's like saying a marketing firm for NASA knows how to send rockets into space (kind of like Space X).

[@dukefx32]

I rarely see such well-explained and informative videos. Thumbs up!

[@mariusg8824]

You missed the opportunity here to write in the thumbnail "Charge is coming"

[@somebody-anonymous]

She charges extra for that

[@herobrine1847]

I know right I can feel the charge coming inside me

[@bradhuffjr777]

​@@herobrine1847 Are you about to recharge your toilet?

[@Boris_Chang]

Game charger.

[@jayr526]

I have to give you credit for that one.

[@scottm599]

Thanks!

[@HL65536]

I'm in the "I believe it when I can buy it from a reputable vendor" camp. Fun fact: I'm currently watching this video on my PC that is powered by a prismatic LFP battery, charged by nuclear fusion power (solar panel).

[@a64738]

Mmm I just installed a new 3000w pure sine inverter on warranty replacement in my van that also has 1380w of fusion power inlets on the roof and 5000w/h 24v LiFe4 batteries :) Just tried to run my PC on the backup 1000w dirty sine inverter and it would not boot even if I have two 850A AGM batteries that it runs from in the van, I had to start the engine for the inverter to not die when the computer with RTX4090 and 8 core Intel xeon started. And the strange thing was when I measured it used only 7A from the 12v side at 200w power on the GPU (meaning 200% efficiency as that is only 100w... which is impossible). I have before started the same computer with only a 170w inverter, all was fine until my RTX4090 accidentally was activated at full 450w, that instantly killed the small inverter.

[@samothrace2106]

Likewise, "I'm about ready to believe it when they start building factories" is a similarly reliable metric.

[@hillbilly4895]

"I want one..." ~ Tony Stark

[@HL65536]

@@samothrace2106 The chinese are pretty good at faking things, including factories (to fool investors into giving them more money)

[@patrickday4206]

​​@@a64738 I'm sitting in my fusion (solar) powered trailer running off a 3,000 watt all in one inverter mppt charger with safe freezing safe lithium titanate batteries that will last 30 years or 30,000 cycles

[@rickrimington2760]

great video ! thanks Tony Seba , famous economist and futurist , said that the problem with trying to create a new battery to replace lithium batteries is that it takes an average 9 years to go from development to retail use . and in 9 years lithium batteries come down in cost at an average of 16% per year and their energy density increases at an average of 4% a year . So whatever you develop today has to be better than lithium Batteries in 9 years time . From a risk investment point of view . This is a very difficult goal for new battery technology to achieve and it is the main reason why new battery technologies dont get to retail use stage .

[@victorhopper6774]

except you can buy a lithium solid state battery right now from yoshino that beats all those goals but price.

[@voinea12]

As far as I know Sodium-Ion is currently the only new battery you can actually buy as a normal person

[@danell1s]

I didn't hear her mention LFP which are about half of the supply now and have a number of advantages over Lion

[@Mentaculus42]

@@danell1s And some compromises. So selection is somewhat application based.

[@AI_Image_Master]

I heard it was only for weirdos.

[@svr5423]

@@danell1s Almost nobody uses LFP. Don't know if it's really widely available. All the devices I bought in the last few years have standard lithium polymer batteries.

[@eddewhurst7662]

About half the car batteries are LFP much more common in Chinese cars.

[@user72974]

4:29 Small but important correction: "sodium ion batteries" not "sodium lithium batteries". Important because a big advantage of them over lithium ion batteries is that they don't require lithium. Instead, just sodium, which is cheap, easy to mine ethically, and will last us a long time before the Earth runs out of it.

[@millax-ev6yz]

I'm sorry but cars that run on fusion was invented before 2015. I watched this documentary where you could power a car on a banana and a beer can utilizing a Mr. Fusion device. It was called "back to the future 2" if you're interested in learning more about science

[@robmacfarlane1657]

That was the end of BTTF 1. "I need fuel!!!"

[@millax-ev6yz]

@@robmacfarlane1657 And the start of 2 where the parallel universe replaced Jennifer with a different woman, but I digress. 2 is where you see the true power of Mr. Fusion

[@peterjensen8070]

The correlation (and related irony) between the hype cycle and Dunning-Kruger curves made me smile.

[@BackTiVi]

Same, the parallel does make sense

[@oasntet]

Except that DK has been debunked. The entire effect is a result of comparing a variable to itself, just hidden in a more complex stat. You can generate the same effect with completely random noise; there's no proof of a trend about humans in there.

[@ianstopher9111]

autocorrelation

[@sallerc]

@@oasntet Interesting, have not heard that. Found the article "The Dunning-Kruger Effect Isn't What You Think It Is" I'm gonna read it.

[@ecoideazventures6417]

After you pointed out, i am wondering was the Gartner hype cycle inspired by this curve?!

[@Voltastik]

Sabine inspired me to make my own YT channel. Thank you! 💛

[@SabineHossenfelder]

Very cool!

[@Volkbrecht]

Not sure this is actually a compliment... ;)

[@Rolf_factchecker-Reborn]

Awesome👍👍🇳🇴

[@tombolo4120]

Through Batteries we become slaves to convenience. Lol

[@Rolf_factchecker-Reborn]

@@tombolo4120 Imagine how long the remote will hold 😳

[@zenorbi]

Since you have recently mentioned how you cannot stand if you are 5 pixels off center, I just wanted to mention that sometimes the stereo balance shift one side or the other. For example at 0:48 to 0:52. There are lots of places in older videos where this occurs. Mixing your videos to mono would solve this. I am not complaining, just informing :)

[@MOSMASTERING]

We haven't seen any INCREDIBLE breakthroughs in batteries, but you have to admit. They're gotten incrementally better generation by generation. My phone still lasts one day, but it does so much more. If my Nokia 3210 had the battery of my current phone, it would last a month for sure. .... Playing with ChatGPT... Using a 4000 mAh modern smartphone battery in a Nokia 3210, you could expect approximately 32.7 hours of talk time and 1890 hours (or about 78.75 days) of standby time.

[@Volkbrecht]

Although when it comes to cars I would turn this around: if we still had the simple, light cars from the 1990s, today's batteries would already provide the reach people are waiting for.

[@janami-dharmam]

@@Volkbrecht are you sure that the older cars will be able to carry weight of modern batteries? Li batteries are light but still not light enough (compared to petrol)

[@PhthaloJohnson]

The problem with batteries on your phone is that the technology has barely improved, it's just that everything from chips, to RAM, memory, soldering and displays have become so much more efficient that we can squeeze bigger batteries in the chassis.

[@svr5423]

@@PhthaloJohnson not to mention that smartphones are getting bigger and bigger because those batteries need space. E.g. my iphone "mini" is larger than my Blackberry Q10. And it's one of the smallest phones available on the market.

[@misham6547]

Older phone batteries also add a protective covering on them to allow them to be replaced which removed some of the capacity

[@francoismagne5863]

This hype cycle theory was fascinating. Thank you.

[@christophmartin5381]

No matter what kind of battery technology will come, fact is, they are reality and they will shape our future in a way we will can not foresee. It is the convergence of many technologies, like EVs, or simply energy storages, but also batteries for coming autonomous robots etc... All that will boost the demand for batteries in unforeseeable dimension. Yes it is that big. The more important is that we are not dependant on Chinese batteries only.

[@jamesocker5235]

You can’t change physics so if physics says no battery will fail.

[@christophmartin5381]

@@jamesocker5235 ?

[@gambit633]

All that hype! Battery price per kWh in dollars has only dropped from $1,220 (in 2010) to $132 (in 2021). Only a 89 percent drop in price per kWh... I think Sabine is saying people are just getting excited when we haven't really seen much change yet! It would only be the equivalent of gas dropping price from $4 per gallon of gas to 44 cents per gallon. P.S. And prices have continued to drop since 2021 … just the table I looked for reference ended on that date. Again these are not projected changes this is a gradual change that has already happened. Some years a whopping 20% drop some years only a 6% drop but for more than a decade the price has been dropping every year. AFAIK no sign of the trend slowing.

[@mauribonada2425]

Why would they make a good battery when they are profiting from planned obsolecence?

[@alieninmybeverage]

I can't wait 5-10 years for those sodium-lithium batteries. Then I can be charged with a salted battery... 👉😎👉

[@diyeana]

It took me a minute! 😂

[@scooble]

From the big book of bad dad jokes

[@danschofield5068]

And finally, the bat-mobile will be able to run on na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na- Sodium!

[@jasonsherlock7480]

lol...good one!!

[@gunslinger2566]

Two peanuts were walking through a park. One was a salted.

[@ama-dablam-2012]

Gotta say, your delivery / commentary is as entertaining as it is informative. Great job

[@arthurmiranda8896]

Sabine is one of my favorite youtubers. It's so rare to find a realist scientist nowadays.

[@victorhopper6774]

she is way off on ssb's since you can get one from yoshino right now.

[@JohnBoen]

Interesting analysis. You have called Na batteries peak-hype. But Geely uses them in cars right now. * CATL is the largest battery manufacturer. * Geely is the #3 manufacturer of EVs in China. * Comparable with LFPs in energy density, but 25% lower cost. Major players are both manufacturing and using the product. CATL has demonstrated the ability to ramp quickly and supply many different manufacturers. I would say this is in phase 4 based on your definitions.

[@yesanton]

"sounds good, I hope it does" and "I'm sure you won't regret it" were a good kitchen cutter tv commercial moments for Sabine😊

[@johnbarbuto5387]

I have subscribed to a lot of sites, but one of those that I actually watch routinely is Sabine. There is always something interesting, presented in balance. And, some day I probably will sign up for Brilliant because it looks great. But, I'm old and I already have a bunch of subscriptions that I use only partially. Anyway, thanks Sabine!!

[@digitalchris6681]

We so need new battery technology. My pack of four AA cells seems incapable of powering my house.

[@gromm93]

I've really enjoyed your videos, in no small part because you have the same resistance to hype over new and shiny things that I do. While at the same time, you remain hopeful for the future in numerous ways. It's refreshing to see someone who's neither a sucker, nor a doomer.

[@eonasjohn]

Thank you for the video.

[@GrandpasPlace]

Well, they also have to be safe. You pack a high enough energy density into a small space and you have the potential for it to explode.

[@madcow3417]

I've been watching battery technology for decades. I stopped reading about up-and-coming technologies because they almost never reach productivity. I'm currently experimenting with Sodium cells and I plan on building a 10-20kWh pack in the next year or so.

[@randy9664]

Watch your blood pressure 😂

[@penfold-55]

Well, fusion has been "10 years away" for about 40 years now. My guess is, fusion is about 10 years away

[@madcow3417]

@@penfold-55 There have been a couple interesting fusion ideas, but I mostly don't pay attention to those 'breakthroughs' either.

[@davidheckman]

@@penfold-55 Correction: Fusion has been "10 years away" for more like 60 years. Over 50 years ago, I remember my high school physics teacher laughing about the "coming of fusion power." He was so right!!

[@uwehetman2320]

@@davidheckman I don‘t know if fusion will work ever on earth for energy generation. The sun is working on an easy principle: pure mass. The fusion ignites self due to the high pressure. On earth you don‘t have the same environment. You have to keep the environment so the fusion can work somehow. So we are able to have a stable fusion for some minutes, but the materials are getting to hot. There is much wearing of the materials. The a big company is again has to service this power plant and has the control over the energy. Maybe I am wrong and it will work some day. But will it be good if the human can produce „unlimited“ thermal energy on earth? Which effect on the climate this heat source will have? Why not simply use the wireless receivers for our working fusion power plant? They are cheap to build and install.

[@geraldmerkowitz4360]

The number of technologies listed on the graph is staggering, it's comforting to see the industry making real efforts on this

[@rajeevgangal542]

Sabine now needs to make a video about the validity of the Hype cycle and the nature of its curve as validated using data....

[@magnero2749]

She showed some graphs with squiggly lines on it

[@markharris1223]

I always enjoy listening to your excellent delivery of sometimes impenetrable topics. I have lost count of the number of videos I have had to abandon because the presenter thinks he or she is working on a fairground, or because the presenter has unresolved sinus problems, or both.

[@ped-away-g1396]

there's still a thing called planned obsolescence. nobody wants to sell things that don't need to be replaced constantly. even if a new tech makes it to the market, it's still not going to be something significantly better than what we already have.

[@joansparky4439]

only because of how money works and a flaw it copied from metal backed currency when 'we' decoupled in the 1960's.. without that there would be no planned obsolescence. Too bad that not even Modern Monetary Theory is aware of this yet afaik.

[@joansparky4439]

That is due to a technical fault in fiat currency that got copied from 'gold'.

[@DMulabiTalejan]

I have also been following new battery tech keenly for four years until recently when i realised they are just not coming out. I had stopped watching/reading new batter tech breakthru news. Thanks this persepective. I will now keep in mind the hype cycle when reading these things.

[@samyfay7786]

😄 ''that's like looking for a Unicorn that also do your taxes''

[@Thomas-gk42]

she´s like a shining diamond sometimes😂

[@michanbg6385]

Can anybody invent this Unicorn please?

[@Thomas-gk42]

@@michanbg6385 Unicorn breed would become another future technology then.

[@michaelrichie5]

I love your very keen sense of humor, thank you.

[@Techmagus76]

Sabine, in germany there is the geladen podcast anything about batteries and with the scientific background from the Polis Excellenzcluster.

[@davidjudd2283]

Yoshino has solid-state batteries on the market (Available on Amazon) right now. Caveat: some have said it is not a true solid-state battery rather it is a semi-solid state battery. I don't know what the correct answer is but even if it is semi-solid state it is still progress. Trying to find out more now.

[@djdrastic1]

There are tests on YT on these batteries. Seems a good deal on the high end end packs, though the low end packs aren't there yet. Still in early adopter phase but at least it's a real product and not vaporware.

[@thisisashan]

The biggest hurdle isn't being 'better than lipo', it is the fact that anything with more energy dense storage and delivery than lipo also tends to be highly explosive. Because energy in small space is explosive...

[@carlostdied1184]

i read this in thunderfoot's sarcastic tone lol, very fitting

[@larsnystrom6698]

It seems that releasing the energy as heat instead of electricity is unwanted! Internal discharging is doing that.

[@natepeace1737]

Sabine is such an amazing science ambassador. (Also If you need to find the Wizard of Oz, she’s your munchkin land ambassador, and will not only draw you a map to the Yellow Brick road, it will come with detailed equations). Kidding Sabine - It’s Jan from your particle physics lecture in Hamburg! 🎉

[@reginaldpotts2037]

Just to correct you the biggest technology now is Lithium Iron Phosphate (LIFePO4 or LFP) not Lithium Ion. For the first time in Europe LFP is now cheaper, cleaner & has a longer cycle life than lead acid which has been King in various formats for over a Century.

[@longboardfella5306]

Safer too

[@MyCatJeff]

Then it will get squashed in the U.S., never to be adopted except by government projects and elites with $2500 phones.

[@philippmuller6377]

You do realize that LFP is cathode material, that is used in Lithium ion batteries. LFP stores lithium ions(Or LCO/NMC/etc), which gives the name to the technology-Lithium ion batteries

[@MrAuswest]

"Like looking for a Unicorn that can also do your taxes" - I love this channel, Way to go Sabine, please don't stop informing and entertaining us.

[@foxdenham]

"Unicorn doing you're tax returns"... Funny as... ! 🤣

[@__christopher__]

Have you ever met an unicorn that doesn't do someone's tax return? I for sure haven't.

[@johnkozlowski6993]

Sabine - You are informative, and hilarious. Thank for the insight, and entertainment.

[@rontarrant]

Here's a question for you, Sabine: I've heard that electric cars aren't as good for the environment as the manufacturers would like us to believe because their carbon footprint is huge by the time they get out the factory door. And by the time they negate this footprint by running for a number of years, the battery has to be replaced and so the footprint becomes huge again. Is this actually true or is it all counter-hype from oil companies (or whoever else might gain from the demise of electric vehicles)?

[@Rocketsong]

Somewhere in the middle. The general consensus is that a battery vehicle will "break even" on environmental impact somewhere around 80,000 miles, though that depends greatly on the battery chemistry, and the source of power. For the most part, batteries are lasting a lot longer than expected. With the exception of early cars with bad thermal management (like the Nissan Leaf) you can reasonably expect the battery to last a quarter million miles or more. At which point, a new battery wouldn't be worth it. But I wouldn't put a new engine in a 20 year old car either.

[@davidheckman]

Also, because of the heavy batteries, either the tires wear out much faster (i.e. have to be replaced more often) or much more heavy-duty tires (i.e. more expensive up front) need to be used. Either way, it is an added expense of battery powered vehicles that is rarely discussed.

[@DGSteig]

@@davidheckman This is widely overhyped expense which is discussed all too often, really. So you get 35K instead of 50K out of a set of tires, and they cost a bit more. However, a Tesla still weighs significantly less than any full-size pickup or SUV that almost everybody complaining about this seems to own, how much does a set of tires for one of those cost, and how long do they last?

[@stephencrowther524]

@@davidheckman on the other hand,pollution from brake pad manufacturing and use is much less.

[@ibrahimsued4906]

Sabine herself has got a great video on this issue. Look for it among her videos list in the chanel.

[@sirtheopolis5085]

I’m glad to see people taking charge and creating such electric news. It’s cool to see a real difference being made, the potential for this new technology is growing more and more…

[@graemebrumfitt6668]

I want a Unicorn that can do taxes tooooo, so glad I'd put my coffee down! Very funny Sabine. TFS, GB :)

[@Thomas-gk42]

😂

[@BugMagnet]

This is a pretty good overview and I especially liked the plot showing the expected time to market over expected relevance. It is fairly consistent with what is being guesstimated among us automotive engineers. Something really worth pointing out is things like dry coating. It sounds boring and the bettery you get in the end is no better than the old one. But the battery factory becomes smaller and will require a lot less electricity and heat. Which is a pretty big thing for the price of those cells and for the old EV issue of its emission luggage it starts with compared to traditional cars. Another one is sodium as active medium. Those chemistries are a lot less dependant on imports. But since they have unfavourable properties compared to lithium ion batteries we are going to see these in stationary storages and electronics first.

[@Fizz-Pop]

It looks like Charge is coming. 😅

[@Scott-vc8oi]

5:45 would have been a good place to flash an image of 'Mr. Fusion' from Back to the Future II

[@I_have_Aquestion]

1:29 lol It sounds like my “I hired another new employee” cycle. However, my cycle ends with a cataclysmic downturn into the last phase called “Sinking into a pit of perpetual gloom” 😅

[@Lazbotnik]

This is an excellent video! It really helped me understand the process. Very well explained. Thank you!

[@_DarkEmperor]

Polish company from Rzeszów "The Batteries" is already manufacturing solid state lithium-ion batteries(low rate production), with 2x energy density of standard lithium-ion batteries, and those batteries can recharge 10000 times, recharge time is also few times faster than standard lithium-ion batteries.

[@granth9352]

Your so Brilliant, It cracks me up, sometimes I begin to melt down.

[@diyeana]

I just want the power grid in my area to be reliable, and the power company has no incentive to improve things. Unfortunately, there's no competition, and legislation has made even solar work in their favor, so maybe batteries will be the way! 😅

[@MrBottlecapBill]

My Hype cycle when it comes to battery tech is more of a straight line. I don't get hyped because they all disappoint me over time.

[@Thomas-gk42]

Very true, thank you for the tax paying🦄. In german we also have this mammal, "eierlegende Wollmilchsau", but biology didn´t gift us with such a pet. I´m afraid, physics won´t benefit us with a perfect battery with an energy density of fossil fuels either. Most people I talk to, have big illusions about the battery developement, the arguement often goes: "No one could imagine some decades before that happened, that we reach the moon, but anyway we came to there, so why shouldn´t we get to such batteries soon." Most people don´t understand, how science works.

[@chrisheath2637]

Some intelligent people ( who aren't very scientific, it has to be said) cannot understand how it was possible to land men on the moon, and get them back...so - it didn't happen...

[@Thomas-gk42]

@@chrisheath2637 😉

[@Thomas-gk42]

​@@chrisheath2637😂

[@AsmonplatinumInternet]

Nearly forgot: at the end of this July/beginning of August BYD and CATL are halving the prices for their batteries.

[@xlargetophat]

Condensed battery 🔋 seems interesting

[@nicomeier8098]

Spectacular new energy storage in batteries? I'll believe it when I see it.

[@lindenhoch8396]

These last couple of years it seems there has been fewer and fewer "battery breakthroughs", that and other technology "gamechangers". I think it's not so much because of hype cycles, but rather the fear of getting the Thunderfoot treatment.

[@janetrussell3288]

Check CATL Shenxing and Shenxing Plus batteries, and Zeekr ‘Golden battery’. 1000k range and energy density of 205Wh/kg for the Shenxing Plus. These are not just prototypes either, but being manufactured and installed, in the case of the Shenxing and Golden batteries, and since the Shenxing Plus was only announced late April 2024, expected to be in passenger cars by the end of the year.

[@lindenhoch8396]

@@janetrussell3288 Neat. I think I'll wait a bit, at least until all the tech buzz has died down, and some more actual reviews come out, to be too excited.

[@OktoPutsch]

Something that passed under the radars of trends is a paper about the effect of charging curves over the battery lifetime, a real breakthrough in the understand of the internal phenomenon at the core of elements cristal growth that slowly reduce capacity overtime. It's in my opinion one of the best things that can help us charge better and in a more safely manner the lithium-ion batteries (and others). Longer lasting batteries just by changing the charging method is THE best way to reduce the economic pressure over those materials, the battery prices, and the environmental effects. But nobody talks about it...

[@davidflorsek9105]

My recommendation is that you finally do a segment that couples renewable (solar, wind, geo) with stationary land-based batteries. If our governments/corrupt rich people finally work towards the good of the people we could solve the energy crisis with technology that is available today. Rich people like nuclear because the cost of entry gives them monopolies. Solar + local batteries lower the cost of entry and create distributed fault tolerant power networks. However, that is more difficult to monetize and monopolize. Treating mobile batteries and stationary as one subject is silly.

[@moskitoh2651]

Li-Ion batteries were invented in 1970, first produced 1991 and are quiet common today. NiMH batteries were invented 1962, first produced 1982 and also still in use. NiCD batteries were invented 1899, first produced 1910 and you can still buy them. If I see predictions of short battery development times and constantly renewing energies, I only feel like smiling.

[@brianwnc8168]

Okay, now I watched this till the end. You didn't go over the proven battery technologies that are already being scaled up that are already moving into production and hitting the market soon.. recent leaps in proven technology that's ready to scale up has increased dramatically. Already on the market as of this year, You didn't talk about lithium iron phosphate batteries catl is making or byd's blade batteries. Both of these are already going into vehicles and are substantially better than previous batteries. Wrong title video based on what's actually in the video. Your videos should have been titled understanding hype curves of new technology products. You didn't give any details about the new batteries that are proven and moving into production

[@watcherofwatchers]

The video title is fully appropriate. Your attempt to be overly pedantic and highlight topics irrelevant to the topic of her video, however, is not appropriate.

[@ErikLongLeaf]

Your discussion of the Gartner Hype Cycle reminded me of the "bathtub curve". A new hot tech becomes the rage of the journals, then there is a rapid decline in published articles. The curve remains flat for some years, then starts rising again. Getting classified causes the decline & low, flat curve. Then when the tech is dropped as unworkable, or it succeeds so much that "they" want to start bragging about it, that's when you get resurgence in published articles. Some folks look for the onset of the bathtub curve as a mechanism for focussing one's time & attention.

[@barneyy6942]

I am here before the bots lol.

[@mikebrant192]

Your videos keep me (relatively) sane. Thank you!

[@joshuascholar3220]

I understand the biggest problem with raising the energy (and power?) density is SAFETY. We promise super dense batteries, then realize that a fully charged battery is an explosive.

[@MBen-f2b]

A half full gas tank is an explosive, what’s your point?

[@janami-dharmam]

true: airlines are prohibiting power banks in checked baggage; no items with batteries or loose cells in checked baggage.

[@DanielQRT]

​@@janami-dharmam airlines impose the 100 Wh limit on battery size in electronics iirc

[@joshuascholar3220]

@@MBen-f2b well the question is what happens in a car crash, for instance. If the battery explodes in a dangerous enough fashion then we can't use it.

[@bhabbott]

@@joshuascholar3220 "A recent study by US insurer, AutoinsuranceEZ found that hybrid cars had the worst fire record, while EVs were the least likely type of car to catch fire. Hybrid cars had 3474.5 fires per 100,000 sales; petrol cars had 1,529.9 fires per 100,000 sales and EVs had just 25.1 fires per 100,000 sales."

[@veritasliberabitvos454]

The other thing people do not think about is that current batteries in your phone has the same energy as a 44 Magnum round. Take can cause a lot of issues when in your pocket near your private parts. 100 x that density and you get to dynamite range (like the propane Bic Lighter - many a welder has learned the hard way on that one). Now, it is how quick that energy is released when it fails is the key.

[@thebrowns5337]

Sabine: "The hype cycle is not just a word" Me: No, it's two

[@MrMezmerized]

The comparison with New Year's resolutions is gold.

[@carlbrenninkmeijer8925]

women have to be 10 times better than men, but that is easy. THANK YOU !

[@macmcleod1188]

Unicorns must be good at doing taxes. No Unicorn has ever been audited yet.

[@ariajames4677]

If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you... prevent inflation

[@Brianna_Hend]

Thanks for continuing updates I'd rather trade the crypto market as it's more profitable. I make a good amount of money per week even though I barely trade myself.

[@ariajames4677]

A lot of people still make massive profit from the crypto market, all you really need is a relevant information and some ‹professional advice. ‹it's totally inappropriate for investors to hang on while suffering from dip during significant

[@Brianna_Hend]

You trade also?, I

[@ariajames4677]

No I don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance

[@ariajames4677]

From my personal financial advisor ..

[@creatureoflegend2635]

Glad I found this channel. Good content

[@halamish1]

You make excellent videos that I enjoy watching Keep up the good work!

[@MaNameizJeff]

I've been enjoying the lithium rechargeable AA batteries lately. Quite a bit of an upfront cost but now I can reliably use them in modern electronics again. Having the benefits of lithium ion with the ease of replacing of AA batteries is awesome.

[@delucain]

The thing I learned a while ago that helps explain the battery hype cycle for new battery technologies (instead of improvements to existing ones) is that new technologies often are worse in their initial form than existing technologies and, while they have the possibility of being far better than what we currently have, they need years and years of very expensive research and development to even get on par with our current tech. And that kind of R&D can often only be funded by commercial sales of the product, which doesn't happen because no one wants to buy a worse battery for more money. So, these battery technologies that could be game changes just don't happen at all or come after a very long period of government research grant funding.

[@DavidL-wd5pu]

That was a nice overview Thank you.

[@agecon2246]

Great chunk of information. Best regards.

[@Bxu021]

I love her videos. They are so funny yet engaging and insightful! XD

[@armel551]

Do you remember those old beer commercials featuring "the most interesting man in the world?" Dr. Hossenfelder is "the most interesting woman in the world!" I LOVE Dr. Hossenfelder's videos!!

[@Clover-qz8nl]

Thank youuuu for sharing your always amazing work with the community ❤️ it’s so important that we get to know more about each other in the future so that we can make a better future together ❤️ thank youuuu and thank youuuu

[@johanullen]

The requirements for batteries depend on the application. A car battery, for example, must have as low weight to capacity as possible and output 25-50kW. But a battery for storing solar or wind power has no restriction on weight and only needs to be as cheap as possible. A household battery, for example, would be fine if it could be placed in or near a small-medium size house, store around 100kWh and output around 10-15kW (although more is better), as long as it is cheap (

[@mdombroski]

It looks like solid state batteries will likely still use cobalt. Cobalt is a serious hazard in current Li-ion fires. It's not clear whether solid state batteries will present fire or toxin risks. Proponents of a technology will always ignore or downplay hazard risks and other downsides.