Stocks To Drop IN HALF Once Hard Landing Arrives? | Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Wealthion

Wealthion

Күн бұрын

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There are a lot of mixed messages out there right now.
The economy is strong, yet inflation-adjusted retail sales aren't growing.
The jobs market is strong, yet more and more of corporate America is announcing layoffs.
The housing market is robust, yet we've just hit a record level of unaffordability.
Which is more correct? Do better or worse days lie ahead?
To help us clear out the smoke & get a true picture of what's going on, we welcome macro analyst Mike "Mish" Shedlock back to the program.
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At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
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#fed #recession #inflation
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Пікірлер: 359
@Wealthion
@Wealthion Жыл бұрын
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@rejectionistmanifesto8836
@rejectionistmanifesto8836 Жыл бұрын
Too bad, no timestamps
@valariemalin7375
@valariemalin7375 Жыл бұрын
P My
@debbycantlon9738
@debbycantlon9738 Ай бұрын
@@rejectionistmanifesto8836
@alexyoung3126
@alexyoung3126 Жыл бұрын
Roughly £120k in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
@oneiljerry9460
@oneiljerry9460 Жыл бұрын
You need to hire a financial advisor to help you diversify your portfolio by including Mutual Funds, Etf's, the 11 GICS groups, inflation-indexed bonds, and stocks of companies with reliable cash flows rather than growth stocks, where prices were based on future prospective earnings.
@kimyoung8414
@kimyoung8414 Жыл бұрын
@@stephaniestella213 I'm happy to have stumbled upon this discussion. If you don't mind, could you tell me the name of the financial adviser who helps you with your investments and how I might contact them?
@kimyoung8414
@kimyoung8414 Жыл бұрын
@@stephaniestella213 Thank you for this wonderful advice. I simply Googled the person's name, discovered her website, and wrote to her outlining my financial market objectives. I hope she gets back to me soon. Gratitude once again
@frederickchandler
@frederickchandler Жыл бұрын
I just got more of these a few minutes ago. Tying up money due to an apocalyptic st0ck market crash is also not a smart move. Life is a risk and it's better to take risks than to do nothing, you can't always expect to make huge profits all the time, people have so many opinions about a recession/depression. In just 5 months my portfolio grew by $300,000 in gross profit, the main thing is to expand your portfolio and you will see amazing results by investing.
@oneiljerry9460
@oneiljerry9460 Жыл бұрын
Warren Buffett has mastered what patience looks like. He has stuck to the markets, having a long term view on the markets. This is what I'm struggling to do, trying to learn how to not react to market news about inflation and all. I have currently set aside about $253k to put in the market now that prices are down. Any ideas?
@alexyoung3126
@alexyoung3126 Жыл бұрын
It takes some gut to really remain in the market despite downturns and all. So just find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
@lawerencemiller9720
@lawerencemiller9720 Жыл бұрын
I agree. I have pulled in more than $435k since 2020 through my advisor. It pays off more in the long run to just pick quality stocks and ride with those stocks.
@kimyoung8414
@kimyoung8414 Жыл бұрын
This is something I've been planning to do for a while now. My portfolio has been falling, and I'm scared, but I know the market always recovers. I wonder if I've been on the right stocks. How do I get in touch with your advisor?
@lawerencemiller9720
@lawerencemiller9720 Жыл бұрын
I work with Eileen Ruth Sparks. I understand what it's like to see your portfolio going down. I hope the performance improves.
@kimyoung8414
@kimyoung8414 Жыл бұрын
Thank you. I was able to find her and send her an email message. I hope she gets back to me soon.
@FeliciaJudge
@FeliciaJudge Жыл бұрын
Becoming a good trade takes time and patience. When i first got into trading i was liquidated twice, and lost my entire mortgage deposit. I could have given up, but decided to learn how to trade and put it into practice. 4 years later and i am glad i made that decision.
@gracesdonny1532
@gracesdonny1532 Жыл бұрын
When did start finding consistency? ..and more honest question is how long would a rough expectation be to find consistency for a new day trader?
@emilybrown2719
@emilybrown2719 Жыл бұрын
@@gracesdonny1532 I started becoming more consistent in 3 phases, first was when i killed greed, then i became more patient, but he must important part was when i started working with Susan Agnes Hancock a coach who made me understand the importance of avoiding FUD, FOMO AND HERDS mentality. with her entry and exit strategies i was able to grow $10k to $70k in 5 months in a well diversified portfolio.
@tradekings5433
@tradekings5433 Жыл бұрын
@@emilybrown2719 How can i get to this person that helped you?
@emilybrown2719
@emilybrown2719 Жыл бұрын
@@tradekings5433 She has been of great help and her tutelage has brought me to a higher understanding of profit generation. You can look up Susan on your browser for her page in order to reach.
@cynthiamaryland
@cynthiamaryland Жыл бұрын
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways
@clairebaker5454
@clairebaker5454 Жыл бұрын
Interest rate is currently at 4.75%(8th rate hike since March last year) Inflation at 7% and mortgage rates is at over 7.5% but yet minimum wage remains the same and my retirement portfolio has suffered tremendously these past years, so my question is how do senior citizens retire and live off such unstable economy. The long term game is obviously not for me at this point.
@michealchris2389
@michealchris2389 Жыл бұрын
@@clairebaker5454 There are many ways to benefit handsomely, especially in a bearish market, but such sophisticated transactions can only be executed by qualified market professionals.
@tonymcdonald7730
@tonymcdonald7730 Жыл бұрын
@@michealchris2389 Very true! I've been able to scale from $350K to $650K this red season because my FA figured out Defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and profit from this roller coaster market.
@shawnbridge
@shawnbridge Жыл бұрын
@@tonymcdonald7730 I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you ?
@tonymcdonald7730
@tonymcdonald7730 Жыл бұрын
@@shawnbridge Definitely! Once WENDY DUNBAR VALERI gave me instructions, all of this occurred in less than a year. I began with less than $100,000, and as of right now, I am just shy of having a quarter million dollars.
@aguywhohikes1271
@aguywhohikes1271 Жыл бұрын
Always a pleasure to watch guests who have skin in the game and don't just memorize theory - Adam your channel is slowly turning into one of the most practical, useful, myth busting, channels on KZbin - Thank you.
@Nathalie_Jackie
@Nathalie_Jackie Жыл бұрын
Agreed
@ronaldmcdonald3965
@ronaldmcdonald3965 Жыл бұрын
He gets to the point His questions elicit responses useful to the average Joe and Jane Meanwhile, other channels meander and you can't dig out the key points
@petehart5622
@petehart5622 Жыл бұрын
Adam, you have the greatest guests - Mish is no exception! You are always so prepared & ask such good questions! THANK YOU ADAM. Simon Hunt is my favorite
@Ahmed-bj4gu
@Ahmed-bj4gu Жыл бұрын
Quite engrossing conversation with Mr. Shedlock. Mike is almost as enthusiastic about his knowledge and convictions as Edwin Dorsey is 😊 Feels like I just came out of a session of Finance & Economy 301. Please bring Mike back as soon as feasible, not only once but as many times needed, for covering each of the topics that were touched but would need their own hour. I'll be waiting to hear from him again, with anticipation. And Thanks Adam for continuing to find these priceless sources of knowledge which some of them share with so much passion. Best Regards
@billwood3766
@billwood3766 Жыл бұрын
Along with Mark Levin and Steve Bannon, Adam is among the most thoughtful interviewers I've ever enjoyed. Thank you, Adam.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 Жыл бұрын
This is the most valuable "show" on KZbin, hands down. I wholeheartedly agree with MISH about the unemployment rate, and I am glad someone finally echoed my own view. Bears (and Bulls) need to stop looking at that indicator!... it's broken now due to demographics and all the reasons he noted. BUT, think about it in the context of the frozen housing market we now have...when Melissa the 2021 mortgage/refinance specialist is forced to go back to Olive Garden in 2023, she'll still be employed, but won't be making nearly as much. Multiply that degradation in pay by millions and that's how I believe we get the malaise period that MISH described (and that appears to be starting now).
@napoleon2564
@napoleon2564 Жыл бұрын
There are four likely scenarios imo. Fed pivots earlier than expected, when expected, later than expected, or sooner than expected but because something significant breaks. Only the first scenario is bullish. If you don’t have a large portion of your portfolio in metals and usd you’re in for a rough time of it in most outcomes.
@annKLR
@annKLR Жыл бұрын
Adam, I love how you summarize your guests comments. You are verbally gifted and a great interviewer. Keep having fun.
@johnmerlino7011
@johnmerlino7011 Жыл бұрын
Why do I hear people say that the Fed wouldn't know what /when a recession was taking place? Don't they employ 400 PHDs in economics? Maybe, just maybe, they are making no mistakes and they want to increase inflation and pricing points to "reduce the value of our national debts and never stopping Trillion dollar deficit spending' by both parties. No mistakes, just lies. If your deficits are skyrocketing, you do not want to default, all you have left is to 'Debased the USD' to devalue our debts.
@barrybearman3511
@barrybearman3511 Жыл бұрын
I am also in this camp. It all back tracks to club of Rome goals. It is a plan. It is being executed now, with scary precision.
@JohnDaniels
@JohnDaniels Жыл бұрын
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
@ChrisGenXer
@ChrisGenXer Жыл бұрын
This was a great conversation. I had to laugh about the bitcoin and crytpo discussion and your immediate reaction to get the conversation back on track 😂 I am invested in crypto, but I enjoy listening to all perspectives because I just think it’s healthy, and I don’t want to only listen to confirmation bias material.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 Жыл бұрын
To be clear, you are not invested in Crypto, you are gambling on Crypto. You are doing nothing but expecting a greater fool to be born someday that you can offload your speculative tokens onto.
@vincentmurphy9252
@vincentmurphy9252 Жыл бұрын
Great honest interview Kids under 30 could even say 40 have not felt any pain or anything close to a hard economy yet- but they will
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 Жыл бұрын
It really sucks for young people because boomers experienced the joy of 40 years of declining rates, while Millennials and Zoomers will almost certainly have to face the headwinds of increasing rates. Maybe THEIR kids will enjoy the next 'fun" slide down.
@brianc9036
@brianc9036 Жыл бұрын
People in their mid 30's who graduated into the GFC with a horrible job market 08-13ish saw nothing. Come on clown!!!
@mullerk2
@mullerk2 Жыл бұрын
Fantastic guest, Adam. Finally, someone who tells it like it is in a forceful way and stands by his prediction without wavering. Too many commentators vacillate. I think it could be more than 50% as markets always over-correct.
@robertbender73
@robertbender73 Жыл бұрын
Excellent easy to understand examples of real economic comditions by your guest
@metaljam7197
@metaljam7197 Жыл бұрын
If you look at M2, it has not changed any significant amount to date. The short end of the rate curve changed and the long end inverted, but liquidity has not contracted yet. This has started to change, and consumers are running out of spending power moving to credit at an massive rate. Once M2 shrinks (at an increasing rate), all of this market nonsense will end and down we go. I agree with Mike that summer will beginning of the end and by the end of the year the full repricing will be completed. End of year will be the pivot, but at that point, most people will be wiped out and not able to invest. Pity, that will be the point of massive returns going forward until inflation comes roaring back, then rinse and repeat.
@cautiousoptimist1926
@cautiousoptimist1926 Жыл бұрын
I am so tired of waiting for markets to reflect reality. Our financial system has become so corrupt I'm doubting that it ever will. The fascists have won it seems.
@jimcrook8013
@jimcrook8013 Жыл бұрын
Good interview..be nice for someone to talk about how 70's inflation rate was calculated compared to the current cpi and pci.
@survivalhub
@survivalhub Жыл бұрын
Mish is the best! Glad you had him on.
@josehawking5293
@josehawking5293 Жыл бұрын
House prices are simply to high for builders not to build. Prices will adjust downward with the help of rising interest rates but not substantially like in 08.
@Organic_In_telligence
@Organic_In_telligence Жыл бұрын
The underlying assumption that a “soft landing” would be good concerns me. A soft landing would most likely result in a decade or more economic malaise as we saw play out in Japan since 1989. That’s what a soft landing looks like at our current debt levels.
@sergiootero5904
@sergiootero5904 Жыл бұрын
Don't forget CPI & real estate. Nominal CPI over 10% and no correction in real estate prices while the mortgage rates are in excess of 6%
@c130comm
@c130comm Жыл бұрын
War is a really big factor not discussed
@barrybearman3511
@barrybearman3511 Жыл бұрын
We will soon pick a war with China.
@rhena229
@rhena229 Жыл бұрын
Looking back in human history, in every country, when the lower income group expands population wise, and their situation gets worse, that often leads to revolution, which will be a huge shock to the country, not to mention social instability and chaos. When that happens, rich or poor will all be impacted, unless some have the means to leave the country really fast. Therefore, folks who currently are doing well shouldn’t feel comfortable either. They key is not to ignore the growing poverty……it’ll eventually impact everyone.
@joannemeeks745
@joannemeeks745 Жыл бұрын
I have followed Mish's work on-and-off since around 2008. I had no idea that he is 70 years old!
@mattanderson6672
@mattanderson6672 Жыл бұрын
Really interesting! Thanks for having Mish on Cheers guys
@TheRustyLM
@TheRustyLM Жыл бұрын
Another great guest interview, Adam. 👍
@stoneyj1a1
@stoneyj1a1 Жыл бұрын
Another thing that nobody is still not talking about. Is the fact that nobody has paid their student loans in three years.
@kingdang855
@kingdang855 Жыл бұрын
Great content and another great guest. How do you do it Adam? You’re the man. Keep up the great work
@willskol
@willskol Жыл бұрын
With higher minimum wages almost across the entire spectrum feeding into all products in the economy, are lower housing prices going to happen for more than a few quarters?
@vincentmurphy9252
@vincentmurphy9252 Жыл бұрын
Rates at 8% do not be shocked it’s coming
@favor4afavor823
@favor4afavor823 Жыл бұрын
Fed funds rate? I highly doubt it.
@janmaaso
@janmaaso Жыл бұрын
I am listening, and as usual there is always something to learn. But how many times have I heard that the FED is completely clueless, that they have no idea what they are doing? Quite a few, but I see things differently: I think they know EXACTLY what they are doing, and that what is going down is by design. This is about transfer of wealth, and if you do not see that, then we are wired differently. Plain as day to me. This has happened before and will happen again. Jan.
@vitalsigns6403
@vitalsigns6403 Жыл бұрын
Wow! Mish completely flip flopped on his house prices call. He has been saying prices would come down a lot. Now he is saying they will “stay elevated”. Huge flip!
@christopherstewart9874
@christopherstewart9874 Жыл бұрын
FINALLY! Someone who understands that money doesn't flow out of the stock market because you can take your money out only if someone buys your shares, putting his money in. Net net, no flow.
@davisutton1
@davisutton1 Жыл бұрын
That is true but the real question is how much flows in to make claims on sold shares...eg. Tesla shares an sell at 200 dollars, or at twenty dollars so money flows out of the falling share seller's pocket... no one really cares if money flows in or out of shares [if that's just shorthand] but they do care about the value of their shares. Strictly, only IPOs involve net inflows and only buybacks are flows to or from shares but few are bothered by share buy backs. I think the real issue is how much money needs to flow into [the selling shareholders' accounts] to take that equity.
@righteousone1
@righteousone1 Жыл бұрын
There's simply too much debt. Stock market is overdue for a major crash.
@janmaaso
@janmaaso Жыл бұрын
Crash has started imo. It will be like a tire with slow leak if I am correct, and this will go on for some years to come.
@Sandwichking-hikes
@Sandwichking-hikes Жыл бұрын
The fed is always wrong because central planning doesn’t work as well as free markets, so why do we keep central planning by having a central bank that sets interest rates?
@rettro6578
@rettro6578 Жыл бұрын
Monopoly power will always exist in "free markets"
@mullerk2
@mullerk2 Жыл бұрын
As Milton Friedman stated, the government actions always make things worse. Fed needs to be abolished. Let rates float.
@thomasmazzola4760
@thomasmazzola4760 Жыл бұрын
Mitch, let Adam finish his questions!!!!
@jojorider812
@jojorider812 Жыл бұрын
Great Show Guys !!! I loved every minute of it. Keep up the Great work.
@timharbert7145
@timharbert7145 Жыл бұрын
Hey, Mish. Where I live the median income to afford a home is $179k. The actual median income is $109k. I don't blame kids today for recognizing they will not be able to afford a home until the Fed kills the housing market. Which is the market they've been bailing out for what, two decades now? The war on savers is ending but nowhere over. Rates need to go to 11! At least.
@timharbert7145
@timharbert7145 Жыл бұрын
@@njerseydavid the Airbnb folks will. So will the big buyers who's plans counted on low rates. Their pro formas are using much lower rates.
@timharbert7145
@timharbert7145 Жыл бұрын
@@njerseydavid the rents will cover the mortgage and taxes? Why have the hassles of rental when tbills will pay a terrific rate?
@ryans.6722
@ryans.6722 Жыл бұрын
@@njerseydavid tbills above the cap rate = game over for the rental market. More single family homes going to rental + record number of multi family units under construction = rental market crash. And try getting those squatters out during this downturn. Mom and pop landlords going bk
@ryans.6722
@ryans.6722 Жыл бұрын
@@njerseydavid they’re losing their jobs with 20%+ interest on credit card debt; they don’t have to sell, foreclosure even better for buyers
@timharbert7145
@timharbert7145 Жыл бұрын
@@njerseydavid tbills are short term treasuries under 2 years in length. They are not volatile.
@miguelleiva897
@miguelleiva897 Жыл бұрын
My mother retired this year after 40yrs working in this country and she cashed in all of her 401,403k. At least banks are paying something for CD this year and for the foreseeable future
@JohnDaniels
@JohnDaniels Жыл бұрын
Check out t bills
@patriciagrell9865
@patriciagrell9865 Жыл бұрын
The biggest baddest bubble of all is the United States Debt Bubble!!
@richardwhite1120
@richardwhite1120 Жыл бұрын
These conversations are excellent, however there's an old saying that states there are 2 types of market timers. Those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.
@marilynhughes94
@marilynhughes94 Жыл бұрын
249k now. you will be 250k next week. congrats.
@Wealthion
@Wealthion Жыл бұрын
Next week? Hopefully tomorrow!!
@brianc9036
@brianc9036 Жыл бұрын
Mish is always a great listen. Been following him for over a decade when he blew the whistle on Peter Schiff crushed his clients after the GFC when was spewing nonsense he was right.
@slackvariable7295
@slackvariable7295 Жыл бұрын
I think the problem is people think of the Fed as an agency working for the nation. It would be better to think of the Fed as something from The Thing.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 Жыл бұрын
They work for the banks first, and for their own generation second. Everyone else be damned.
@cdorcey1735
@cdorcey1735 Жыл бұрын
When I hear people talk about "causes of inflation", what I think they're really talking about is "why is inflation showing up HERE?" Overall, inflation is the result of too much money circulating in the economy, and if supply chain issues make some goods more expensive, without increasing the money supply, other economic activities would need to diminish to compensate. As long as deficits and fractional-reserve lending continue, inflation must continue... somewhere. Some years it will be in housing, some years in groceries, some years in services, but the only way they can ALL go up is to be passing around more and more money.
@llamamama1003
@llamamama1003 Жыл бұрын
We have not had a recession in the 3rd yr of Prez Cycle since 1929
@joelfarmer4850
@joelfarmer4850 Жыл бұрын
It’s all one big show
@marieb5251
@marieb5251 Жыл бұрын
Great interview.
@mark-204
@mark-204 Жыл бұрын
The FED will crash the market when they are ready to introduce the CBDC.
@kengaroo5170
@kengaroo5170 Жыл бұрын
The FED is a privately owned bank by a half a dozen families known as the Cabal. President John F Kennedy was assassinated 11 days before removing them. The case is sealed for national security till this day. There are your masters.
@kimferzoco6755
@kimferzoco6755 Жыл бұрын
The idea that people have given up resonates with me.
@a.s.r.3661
@a.s.r.3661 Жыл бұрын
Great deep discussion. Thank you.
@mellisabakker8524
@mellisabakker8524 Жыл бұрын
I love the energy and efforts you always put in your videos. The stock/crypto market can be very tricky especially for newbies. If it hadn’t been with the help of my broker Julia David, whom I can’t thank enough. I had already given up on crypto after losing so much money.
@henrysimon7213
@henrysimon7213 Жыл бұрын
I'm surprised you know her too, I've been making a lot of profit investing with her for a few month now.
@michaelparas1499
@michaelparas1499 Жыл бұрын
Amazing to see others who trade with Julia David, I'm currently on my 5th trade with her and my portfolio has grown tremendously.
@marklingard7705
@marklingard7705 Жыл бұрын
I'm new at this, please how can i reach your broker
@mellisabakker8524
@mellisabakker8524 Жыл бұрын
@mellisabakker8524
@mellisabakker8524 Жыл бұрын
investwithjuliadavid1???
@Jesusismykin
@Jesusismykin Жыл бұрын
Best show in town 🙌👌😎
@mohammediqbal123
@mohammediqbal123 Жыл бұрын
Adam you provide some fantastic insights into the complex world of finance so thank you. Your guests are always brilliant and provide a variety of views that help us to make our own financial investment decisions. Thank you
@truffleturkey7
@truffleturkey7 Жыл бұрын
Facing WW3. Got to keep the system going as normal and long as possible.
@donaldstrump9690
@donaldstrump9690 Жыл бұрын
i disagree with MISH regarding his comment on pension plans riding it out til the bottom. CALPERS is now using leverage to boost returns. IF this isn't a bell being rung at the top i don't know what is.
@LoriDowil
@LoriDowil Жыл бұрын
I have to say that he is absolutely spot on when he suggests that perhaps generation z and the millennials even have kept consumer spending inflated because they have given up on saving. I am one of those zoomers born in 1995. I make $60,000 a year and after my bills are paid I have less than $600-1000 a month left over. It’s infuriating to me that I have to choose between my hobbies and a couple 3-5 day vacations a year and saving for a home much less retirement. If I wanted to save enough to put 20% down for the home I currently rent it would require me to be a hermit for the better part of a decade assuming that the prices don’t rise at all in that time. What feels even more impossible is to remain a hermit for my entire working career to even have a chance of saving enough to retire modestly by the age of 70. So screw it. I’m gonna rent, I’m going to enjoy time with my wife because I can afford to at least do that and maybe one day there will be a reset that allows me to become a home or land owner even a millionaire like my grandpa was allowed to become by simply working the line at a ford plant and being responsible before he was able to retire at 55. Its the most depressing situation being required to choose between options that prior generations didn’t have to choose between.
@barrybearman3511
@barrybearman3511 Жыл бұрын
You are of the wrong mindset. Change the mindset and you can realize your dreams. Sacrifice the short term for a better long term still works. Fun every day is not a right, it is an effect.
@STROBdotNET
@STROBdotNET Жыл бұрын
19:30 that could also explain used car prices going up!
@timharbert7145
@timharbert7145 Жыл бұрын
Full point hikes now!
@righteousone1
@righteousone1 Жыл бұрын
Real inflation is around 20%. Ya need the Volcker approach.
@mullerk2
@mullerk2 Жыл бұрын
So true. Look at gas prices alone. Could go on with the list, but everyone knows 6% is not the rate.
@TheDavechiba
@TheDavechiba Жыл бұрын
Yes at 14:00 this guy totally gets it. Which is exactly what I think Jeff Snider is missing because he’s way too dismissive of the power of the Fed. When a lot of the evidence speaks to the contrary.
@johnbirman5840
@johnbirman5840 Жыл бұрын
Would the FED come in to Save the Banks? Considering the Banks own the FED...that’s a pretty safe assumption. Just saying.....
@mackakiwinz4353
@mackakiwinz4353 Жыл бұрын
I liked how Adam was surprised at Mikes 50 % overvaluation figure. I think that figure would be perfect to give the young some opportunities.
@bilbobaggins4462
@bilbobaggins4462 Жыл бұрын
One of my favorite guests. I read what Mish writes daily!
@AC7star7
@AC7star7 Жыл бұрын
What I heard from Powell in congressional testimony… *Our mandate under law is price protection and employment. We will do everything in our power to fulfill that mandate. Full stop! *National debt interest expense is not our concern and, therefore, not a consideration in our metrics. *Our mandate by law will be fulfilled at the expense of few to save the whole… demand destruction.
@PonziZombieKiller
@PonziZombieKiller Жыл бұрын
MISH !!! Far out man 👀
@c130comm
@c130comm Жыл бұрын
Lots to think about. Good luck everyone
@jeffc2612
@jeffc2612 Жыл бұрын
Government needs to stop getting creative with Employment numbers along with Real inflation numbers!
@caroledoerr6872
@caroledoerr6872 Жыл бұрын
Thanks Mish for stating the truth. However, nothing is being done about the obvious! Maybe it is because we have a printing press!
@deenibeeniable
@deenibeeniable Жыл бұрын
"exacerbates," not exasperates.
@stoney5827
@stoney5827 Жыл бұрын
Has to be the most depressing vid I have watched in awhile. Probably all likely outcomes but how sad for us all
@jeffkassel1457
@jeffkassel1457 Жыл бұрын
There's a ceiling on how high rates can go because we have almost $32 trillion in federal debt on which we pay interest. Multiply $32 trillion X 5%, 6%, 7%, 10%. Volcker had to go to 20% to crush inflation in 1980. Even then high inflation persisted for another 4 years. In 1984 mortgage rates were 12%. I think the FED caused inflation with ultra-low rates for most of the last 22 years, and it's going to take years and serious recessions to crush it down. But we have a debt bubble on which we must pay interest and that rate if it rises will eventually crush the economy. Let's say the FED goes to 7%....that's over $2 trillion in interest on the federal debt. Without a recession or two, the CBO projects a federal debt of over $50 trillion by 2034. With a bad recession, it could be far higher. We have to pay interest on that money. The alternative is zero rates again and printing trillions....and that's what caused the problem. It may not be fixable without a prolonged downturn. The Depression of the 1930s wrung out a lot of excesses in the economy, but the downturn lasted 16 years. In Europe it lasted longer.
@vincentmurphy9252
@vincentmurphy9252 Жыл бұрын
We just went through a idiot uptrend UP WITH FED ZERO RATES everything just about since 2010 Last time like that but shorter time was the 20s and 90s and they ended up down 85% PLUS RHIS LAST BUBBLE IS 2 times worse at least -
@ricardoflores-oy7mv
@ricardoflores-oy7mv Жыл бұрын
Excellent demonstration , 100 % agree , monster inflation impossible to bring back after years of fiat currency creation.
@mikkimikki5376
@mikkimikki5376 Жыл бұрын
Love this show when it's all reality, like today! ☀️💖☀️💖☀️💖☀️🇵🇱☀️💖❤️💖
@jayao9758
@jayao9758 Жыл бұрын
Yup, 2 year treasury went to 5% today. First time since 2007
@gieb6428
@gieb6428 Жыл бұрын
I'm all in
@rd9102
@rd9102 Жыл бұрын
Yep, stocks need to go on sale and hopefully mean revert to the historical avg. of 15-16 p/e so they can be affordable again at realistic prices.
@beamazing2497
@beamazing2497 Жыл бұрын
Is it time to buy puts?
@ronfesta771
@ronfesta771 Жыл бұрын
Me thinketh classic Flying High quote., Does Anyone Know How To........Fly A Plane!@!?😝🤪😅😅
@HybridHunterBC
@HybridHunterBC Жыл бұрын
Time to buy.
@jameskelly9243
@jameskelly9243 Жыл бұрын
My kids 28/30 stopped saving for a house,they will rent forever.Housing has no return owning vs renting
@unaffiliated5133
@unaffiliated5133 Жыл бұрын
There is absolutely ZERO reason the price of EVERYTHING is now higher. None. It’s corporate price gouging to break labors strength. Why do Q-tips cost more? Coke? Amazon Prime? Netflix? Wake up.
@nickburak7518
@nickburak7518 Жыл бұрын
I'm tired of and dissatisfied with anyone who may present themselves as knowledgeable - we know that they are not financial advisors - and yet they maintain that, "The Fed doesn't know what they are doing." They know what they are doing! It's that we don't know what they are doing. You know, I've never found anyone that said this. They don't care about us!
@Studeb
@Studeb Жыл бұрын
I would agree with that mother, I've given up saving to a house and am renting a tiny place. The money seems better spent on fun things, traveling, food and drink.
@Vertical-consultants
@Vertical-consultants Жыл бұрын
Great Video. One real estate asset that is not in recession are cell tower leases due to the need to continue to build out 5G cell sites around the U.S.. Learn more on how to make money from cell tower leases.
@davisutton1
@davisutton1 Жыл бұрын
Why is it so hard for the market generally to grasp the obvious truth this man is speaking...so often we'll see the 'market will pop up to [insert high value here], then crash to [insert low value here']. Why, if the end-point is obvious, do we need the dance in the middle.
@trinitiusw6145
@trinitiusw6145 Жыл бұрын
Globalisation (meaning Chinese manufacturing) kept a lid on inflation. Look what happened when sanctions were placed on Chinese products, prices went up.
@glowwurm9365
@glowwurm9365 Жыл бұрын
I understand why they don’t include housing but it’s clearly inflationary, a mortgage or rent is the number one outgoing for virtually everyone. When housing is going up 12% a year (like it did in London) there’s clearly a serious problem within the economy. 🤦🏻‍♂️
@jdawg9794
@jdawg9794 Жыл бұрын
Who to blame ? How about some culpability on voters? I know plenty who vote for the money train candidates.
@marykushnir6543
@marykushnir6543 Жыл бұрын
Will this affect pensions who rely on investments?
@twd2767
@twd2767 Жыл бұрын
Quality interview
@aaron159r2
@aaron159r2 Жыл бұрын
33:43 Posticulate (v) - To articulate one's postulate.
@commissarcarr2463
@commissarcarr2463 Жыл бұрын
People don’t realize the FED works for Government not independent. They will pivot and go back to inflation as need to monetize the debt. Only way out without honest default so will do it dishonest and inflation it away.
@linger2001
@linger2001 Жыл бұрын
Another great interview. Although I think he is mistaken about the housing collapse. There is a ton of newly constructed houses and apartments being finished in the next year that will be coming onto the market, I also believe there will be those houses listed this spring with people trying be first mover advantage, I also believe that a good portion of people will try to unload their Air B&B's, and another telling sign is the amount of unoccupied vacant homes sitting with the possibility of hitting the market. I believe all together it will make things ugly in the housing market. I believe the trigger will be the home builders getting desperate to move completed house that are just sitting.
@armedresistance1776
@armedresistance1776 Жыл бұрын
Don’t forget about all of the people dying suddenly too! Their homes will have to be liquidated by loved ones.
@linger2001
@linger2001 Жыл бұрын
@@armedresistance1776 that’s certainly a consideration also with an elevated death rate -20% above long term averages.
@robi8020
@robi8020 Жыл бұрын
When will the “hard landing” actually occur? You have so many videos saying this over such a long time, are you saying to just not invest ever again until this hard landing eventually occurs someday? I mean, how is this kind of repeated messaging supposed to really help? Keeping people petrified and stuff mattresses doesn’t seem like a good plan.
@miked5106
@miked5106 Жыл бұрын
If federal govt doesn't cut spending the fed can only delay the inevitable.
@Jerry-gi2lj
@Jerry-gi2lj Жыл бұрын
Excellent guest Adam. Have him back.
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