The Dangers of Betting Ace-King on Autopilot

[@CrushlivePoker]

Explanation @ 13:38 why this specific spot is better as a rare river check/call. Would you have made this call?

[@Dexerion]

It's check call because of what dominated the decision, which was is this a chop or not. So don't bloat the pot, let him name the price and often it's going to be less than all in. Exploits on this specific players behavior as the game runner should have been a bigger part of the decision.

[@jacobbirkenfeld9261]

Bet on river is the biggest misstep in this hand. All worse folds, only chops and better call and you open yourself up to allow his chops to put you in a super gross spot. He has INFINITELY more 5x than you in this spot

[@kitsune090]

Yeah he shouldn't bet the river but once he did it, he can no longer fold it... fold cause you're afraid of quads? No way... I've lost with nut flush vs. Straight flush... Top boat vs. Quads... no regrets!! Cause when you're on the other side, you do get paid off too... it's indifferent, you're not winning nor losing... but folding the winning hands will come with a big price in the end and you can't beat the games by being a nit... if the losses are guaranteed, your winnings should be too... folding will make you go broke sooner, cause you will not have enough to cover your future losses... so paying off is essential part of the game... everybody has to pay someone off at some point... othewise that would be a game of nits waiting for the stone cold nuts and there would be no action and profit... totally boring!!

[@darylmixan8170]

Yeah... Who knows... A check will usually check back... depends on villian. We know bad players... My uncle and my Dad for instance, old timer 5 card draw, Stud players etc... My uncle would call 99 or 8-10 here and say "well I'm never folding a full house" My dad went out of an online tournament deep and he was telling me about it, he said he went out with Kings and 3's with an Ace kicker... I said what did he have? What were your hole cards... He said this or that... The tourney was still playing and I seen his hand history. He had K-10, board was A-K-3-3-x and he was reading his hand as Kings and 3's, with an ace kicker.

[@TheGuyCalledX]

We have to call. Our calling range can't only be AA 88 and maybe 2 combos of quads. Even if they're never bluffing, the way the first two streets were played, they have Ax so often here.

[@fransfermont6193]

👍👍👍👍

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

I’m calling here. But just because you fold this hand doesn’t necessarily mean you fold all Ax though. AcX or A8s are better calls than hero’s hand because they block A5s and 88. A6cc would also block 65cc.

[@TheGuyCalledX]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj on the flip side, I'd rather fold hands like A6 and A7 than AK, as they block villains potential bluffs

[@kdub9918]

I have a ton of experience running home games and playing home games in Alabama and I’ve also lived in Las Vegas and Henderson (Anthem) Green Valley area Bart explained the game runner perfect they get it out of the muck but 1 out 10 or so will play extra tight to not give away their rake money from hrs of play

[@EfficientRVer]

Caller has to be wrong about thinking 5x would have tabled the hand for a high-hand prize. Only A5 would qualify for the prize if both cards must play, as is customary.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

They never discussed the possibility of villain turning 8x into a bluff on the river. That seems plausible to me.

[@johnf1772]

Doesn't really matter - you beat any bluff. They agreed an 8 wouldn't "call" so that leaves fold or raise/bet. Might be a conversation if you somehow get here with King high and are considering calling a bluff, because now some of those beat you...8x/99/etc. It's not really about how many bluffs he might have, but how likely he is to act on any of them, because the only real plausible goal of a bluff here is to make an ace fold to a chop....you're not imagining Hero has less than that.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

@ you don’t beat any bluff though. Specially you don’t beat Ax that’s trying to push you off a chop. Which is why the odds on calling are so bad if you assume villain only has Ax or hands that beat you; you’re calling $900 to win $350 or whatever it is. So if villain has 3 combos of 88 and a couple of combos of 5x you need him to be shoving with Ax a lot for the call to be profitable. But if villain has even 1 or 2 two combos of hands he’s bluffing with, suddenly your EV on a call skyrockets because you’re calling $900 to potentially win $1600 instead.

[@johnf1772]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj OK - what I mean is you don't lose to any bluff if you have Ax...Kx loses to some bluffs. Assuming he doesn't have any hand you beat outright you need him to have Ax about 75% of the time. He probably does. You're worried about 5 likely combos that beat you, assuming AA isn't in the mix. So you need 15 Ax in villain's range. I think that's easy to find. From villain's perspective the equity difference in bluffing with a hand worse than Ax vs bluffing with Ax is significant...to me it's just such a low rate of occurrence it's not worth counting - he'll have bluffing hands, but won't act on them most of the time. There are enough Ax combos in his range anyway to not worry about the bluff frequency of non-ace hands. AKo/AQo/AJ/AT/A9s/A8s/A7s/A6s/A4s/A3s/A2s are likely there, as a conservative start.

[@JoshNickless]

There’s lots of games in Indiana… Shelbyville casino, lots of American legions, VFW that host “charity games”

[@Ohrami]

River bet is fine for a size like 10-20% pot. 60% is not a "small" sizing in this run-out. On this river, splitting sizings with Ax and 88+ makes sense. All-in size with a 5 or 88, 10% with Ax, and all of your value range can be checked at some frequency, although Ax has relatively low incentive to check. AA should probably use the smaller size or check. As for bluffs, you probably put random broadway hands or hands like 99-KK into both sizings, depending on how likely you are to arrive at the river with those. 8x would obviously be a great hand to bluff with, but it's hard to have that in this position. Exploitatively, if this is the type of opponent you think is never folding Ax, then jam everything better than Ax and never bluff. If you think he won't bluff 8x on rivers, 10% with all your Ax and don't bother checking. You can still bluff for 10% if you think it will get anything to fold, though I doubt it will vs. most live opponents, given I doubt their range has almost anything worse than a pair.

[@pot_kivach160]

they have high hand reward at home games where player is holding one card of it?

[@GJT-w3y]

One minute: "You've got the blockers, you have to go with it. Next minute: "There's a good chance he has a 5 with the other 3 5s accounted for" Sorry, I'm never, ever, ever folding here.

[@atfti]

I'd love to play with you

[@EllieBanks333]

@@atfti In case you're interested; calling is correct here.

[@darylmixan8170]

​@@EllieBanks333everybody in the chat is Phil Ivey...

[@GJT-w3y]

@@atfti Cool, if you're hitting quads in every session, then it doesn't have to be me, anyway. But if not, I'm printing EV against you playing this nitty.

[@RunItTw1ce4858]

19:05 I try to keep the game moving so I tanked 4-5 minutes 😂😅😂

[@HighStakesPokerReplays]

Super Interesting - GOooo!

[@kitsune090]

Dude, I would call it but thinking I'm beat... if he got AA or 88 it's a cooler... I'd rather lose a hand to a monster, than folding the winning one... it's waaay worse!! you can't win in this game if you're not willing to face the risk of being behind a lot of times... you can't only play for the stone cold nuts... and people are crazy like that going all in with Ax for no reason...

[@461oceanboulevard]

the focus on rake/bb - private games. is it just a given always tipping the dealers at these games?

[@JohnnyAppleseed-yl6fo]

Thats generally how the dealer gets paid.

[@461oceanboulevard]

@ thanks. I was just curious given the $50/75 rake per flop.

[@HumbertoGarcia-u2w]

You should ask for table image. I’d be interested in what they perceive their table image is

[@juhiss912]

Size up on home/loose games on the flop. Defo go larger and bet 50% on the turn imo. When he calls both streets with this runout I think we have to check river. Probably just check/call then cuz you won't get jammed on so easily anymore cuz it would be 3x pot jam. I definitely do think that you chop sometimes here (mr. obvious) but also you lose quite often, because villain almost never has a complete bluff here. I don't I wouldn't bet river but if I was in this spot of of facing 900 to call on the river i honestly don't know what I would do. You probably just have to sigh call even when you consider all things. I think villain has more 5x in this spot than you instinctively think, it's just that he never really has 88 or AA, which makes it a really difficult decision. Tough spot, in hindsight easy to say that this would've played out a lot different if you sized up on the previous streets but yeah I guess you can't fold really even though you win against anything. Although. I just realised you haven't committed much now that you used smaller sizings, you can maybe argue that you would only be going for a call that gets BACK your 150-ish that you bet before (if you had checked river but you bet 200 so now it's 350). Maybe you can justify folding because you're risking so much for so little and you can't ever win either, just get your 350 back. I'm honestly not sure though maybe I'm wrong but now that I thought more about it as I wrote the comment I don't think folding is that insane. But bro I forgot... Player type. ANYWAY! I'm done writing this comment now just in conclusion the decision would've been easier if you sized up that's hindsight though so I think you can walk away fine here with losing only 350.

[@kdub9918]

Given the setup check river never fold,even as played call it off get your money back minus rake

[@digitaldavid5633]

How do we feel about a game runner who is taking a rake, to play in the game?

[@JohnnyAppleseed-yl6fo]

He probably shouldn't. But they always do.

[@herts9999]

Where in Indiana is this and can I join?

[@mjriemen]

Which game in Indiana got shut down?

[@jimmymason6893]

Nate,do you play at the Hard Rock? Or Spades or Ruggles or Mad River? Thanks man.

[@islandmarshal31]

Real question is if you’re villain do you do this w 67?

[@Jermo484]

Give up? Hero shouldn't be folding an A anyway and can still have AA and A8 (and a couple of 5s). Should have folded turn anyway.

[@islandmarshal31]

@ A8 is nothing, hero will likely never have a 5. If you think he’s weak and passive you can get him to fold river

[@Jermo484]

@@islandmarshal31 I clearly meant 88. Uh, hero clearly isn't weak passive if he went bet bet bet here lol. 76 should be giving up 100% on this river. Bluffing is lighting money on fire.

[@marknoble5495]

My thought too. Plus he said this game is wild. I don’t think I’m folding this even against the tightest old man coffee. I’d jam river before I folded to a jam.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

@@islandmarshal31having A8 would be relevant because it blocks 88.

[@jacobbirkenfeld9261]

Bart, let’s eat a half OZ of shrooms and play twin river together 👽

[@charlesschwaboverhere5582]

Have you played like that before? Did you gain any advantages?

[@GotoyourhomeBall]

Check turn is in flow, we don’t have much 5X and we auto cbet A85 flop with most our +2 opens. Nice jail play from btn otr.

[@oldsarge7005]

Just walked my daughter's French Bulldog, then saw this pop up, as usual great content

[@kingwild772]

😂

[@pot_kivach160]

thank you for let us know what dog you were walking!

[@kingwild772]

@@pot_kivach160 right 😂😂

[@starttakinnotez]

Send this to Frankie C who was in next gen poker because he is bleeding chips with AK jams at times he should play tighter. I feel like tournaments play more like cash at later stages. Could be wrong but those pay jumps 🤑

[@justinhart7172]

I’m so happy caller told us how big his stack was as it had zero relevance to the eff stack size of the hand

[@Dexerion]

Great example of explotitatve play is often the major part of a decision. After all the math says what it says, the setup from this player and his read on his capability should have tipped the scales to call here. Like the caller said, he knew it an hour later. Nice hand.

[@ColinArkell]

Is freeroll only for US citizens? Im in Canada and it's not working for me

[@Kyriakoskarystinos]

Literally played this exact same hand and ran into quads the other day. I went all in though. Edit. Wrong, I had both the aces in my hand

[@scarlxrd2144]

How does he lose to a pair 8 if both of them would end up with a fullhouse ? Kinda new to the game if someone could say.

[@DBlock-n2u]

88855 over 555AA

[@scarlxrd2144]

​@@DBlock-n2u ahh thanks didnt notice that

[@Apocalypse_Promotions]

Nooooo!

[@SeanMcCarthy-u8s]

I went allin twice after a decent raise with Ak in home game, showed my hand after. The following week i did same with AA and stacked the same loose aggressive player. He got upset and told him i set him up lololol

[@JohnnyAppleseed-yl6fo]

Why would you ever tell him that?

[@andrewgjkgjk]

Why does he lose to pocket 8's? Is this not texas hold'em where 8 high full loses to ace high full?

[@chasebethersonton5169]

Not trying to be mean, but this feels like fishy poker from hero.

[@justinron1772]

If your not trying to be mean get off the internet

[@joe_g_fw]

Bro I don't disagree. I was too tired to still be playing this late, racked up right after this hand. I can assure you I'm normally finding the bigger bet on that board, sizing up turn to setup a river jam, and then finding the check on river when betting accomplishes nothing. I hate the way I played this hand, but harsh to assume this one-off says anything about my game.

[@Bumder]

@@joe_g_fwthat’s interesting, would’ve thought being tired you just default to I have a very strong hand. Villain can’t have AA and will probably 3-bet pocket 8s at least sometime, I call

[@iansane1928]

Bart: what did you do on the river? Caller: as one of four profitable players in this game i try to keep it moving, so i tanked for 5 minutes...sick subtle brag dude

[@justinhart7172]

He started the convo w Bart off by stating HIS stack size then the eff stack size and Bart laughed at him

[@joe_g_fw]

​@@justinhart7172I was $1,260 effective with main villain, $2,000 effective with the HJ player who folds on flop. The caller before me completely botched effective stack size, and Bart didn't figure it out until river when the jams didn't make any sense and they had to correct it. That's why he laughed. And if I'm trying to humble brag, I'm probably going to find a hand I didn't play like shit to call in with lol Thanks for listening though.

[@justinhart7172]

To address the “humble brag” comment Mr. Phil Ivey06 , the original poster said “subtle brag”, not me. I was just supporting his claim, but that was before I knew your name was Phil Ivey06. Had I known your name, surely I would have changed my opinion. And thank you for clarifying why you said you were 2,000 effective, because the HIJACK had you covered, and his flop fold deserved that.

[@mjriemen]

Advertised as “$8+2”… As a former dealer in Indiana “private games” its probably $28+2.. 😂

[@mkader2494]

Bart, have you adopted another dog yet?

[@SNBSTL]

WPT Champ!

[@mdg4347]

If he'd bet the flop like 90, this whole situation would not have occurred.

[@thomastomasello2705]

Promo code Burt isn't workin

[@kylebrodie9390]

Because it is Bart not Burt

[@oliverbanks3396]

It’s Bart you doofus

[@thomastomasello2705]

@@kylebrodie9390 I tried Fart, Part, Retart but still no luck

[@dimitrismaster]

I never ask what people had,if i fold.Almost always they lie.

[@patrickdippel7336]

I’m folding here

[@thescenesnotdead]

INDIANA REPRESENT

[@Crazy_Dude2490]

Vilan had full house 88

[@kitsune090]

I think you tilted your opponent by betting so small all streets and he did what you should have done yourself with the hand you had and he punted! were you value betting against what? Ax!! that's why you supposed to bet bigger, as you didn't it may have induced your opponent to turn his hand into a bluff? but do you expect ever AK to fold there??? yeah, but when your betting sizes don't show much strength, I guess that's one of the shits you get!!

[@Mordecai154]

At 2:09 how does he have $2,000 in front of him but is $1260 effective? That makes no sense. Like saying I have about $20 in my pocket but when I count it its $11.40

[@bbtb05]

He has $2000 in front of him but the other guy only has $1260 in front of him, so effectively they are both playing for $1260

[@Unhingedanduninformed]

I know what you’re trying to do, but it had the opposite effect. Because in fact, you look silly for this post.

[@Mordecai154]

@@bbtb05ahhh. I see. Ty.

[@gregoryk.2971]

You digress more than anyone i know

[@speakinfaxonly21]

Than*

[@gregoryk.2971]

@speakinfaxonly21 what?

[@leslieandclash7030]

@@gregoryk.2971u edited ur comment not slick