The Russo-Ukrainian War at Two

[@fojking]

Came across this podcast after going down a rabbit hole while researching the current situation in the East. Great content! Thank you.

[@eugenebebs7767]

Welcome to the Kult of Kofman

[@vaughnwarren8446]

you would do much better to follow Alexander Mercouris (The Duran) and Brian Berletic (The New Atlas)

[@ZarconVideo]

Always great to hear Mikes thoughts. Unfortunately the outlook for Ukraine looks pretty grim. I agree the Europeans need to get their act together.

[@NoHairMan]

I'm very disappointed with the lack of seriousness of the European governments and specifically my government (Germany). But is going on in the US Congress? They "need to get their act together" as well. What a disgrace. Because of these growing isolationist tendencies metastasizing in the USA, we now question the reliability of the US as our ally and have a growing debate about building our own nukes.

[@gsd2085]

​@@NoHairMan where in Europe will you test nukes🤭

[@NoHairMan]

@@gsd2085 you actively ignoring the point I was trying to make is a little childish.

[@ZarconVideo]

Putin is not seen as an enemy to many on the right as he is anti woke. Unfortuantly an isolated America seems to be what we can expect. Europe needs to be prepared for a hyper aggressive Russia.@@NoHairMan

[@ViceCoin]

Europe is in recession, and aging. It has no capacity for a modern war against a peer country.

[@martinsmith9054]

From what I can tell the Russian forces that broke into Avdeevka from the north and severed the supply artery contained reconnaissance troops and possibly special forces, who are more likely to have the necessary training and skill to direct close air support. It was glide bombs that broke the back of the Ukrainian defence. A rain of 500kg bombs is hard to argue with. Further Russian success may be dependant upon utilising this aerial sledge hammer.

[@johnwalsh4857]

for now these glide bombs are inaccurate but they are getting more improved. However even though many miss the hit is close enough to do damage due to the size of the bombs. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are starting to use more JDAMs and GLSDBs which are much more accurate than the Russian glide bombs. not as much as the Russians are using compared to their glide bombs but the Urkainians hit most of the time which counts, quality over quantity. also not only the Russian glide bombs but also Russian artillery, broke the backs of the Ukrainians at avdiivka plus also much reduced USA and NATO aid to Urkaine which resulted in dire Ukrainian ammo shortages. fortunately Russian artillery is mainly inaccurate due to poor quality North Korean ammo , and Russian artillery barrells getting too warped. So in Avdiivka yes Russian quantitiy won over Ukrainian quality but at very heavy cost, 50K plus Russian casualties(17K dead 30K plus wounded plus several hundred destroyed tanks and APCs) in 5 months of combat taking what ruins, Ukrainians just moved to a new defensive line.

[@MrLandL0rD1]

With ALL THAT SAID afu has lost this war😂😂​@@johnwalsh4857

[@martinsmith9054]

@@johnwalsh4857 The last attack from the north was surgical and precise, unusual for Russians. It may be that certain formations are more competent in operational art. The glide bombs are accurate enough to inhibit maneuver and inflict casualties on troops attempting to do so. Ukrainian troops were demoralized by it. The Russians are still advancing west of Avdeeka so the dust hasn't settled yet.

[@Zeitgeist_Dron]

​@@johnwalsh4857 If you believe those casualty figures then I've got a bridge to sell you. Why is mike saying ukranians have a lack of manpower and Ukrainians said they were outnumbered 7 to 1 if casualty figures like that were true 😂

[@johnwalsh4857]

and to show how sucky these Russian foreign volunteers are, I watched a Chinese blogger who volunteered for the Russian army, he was given command of the platoon of 20 Nepalese volunteers fighting in southern Ukraine in late 2023, 2nd day they were surrounded by the Ukrainains 10 of them left alive. hiding in a house while a Ukrainian bradley APC was shooting outside. by day 5 they broke out of the encirclement and only 5 of them left alive. they left their dead behind. Also in early 2023 a Chinese military blogger volunteered to fight with the wagner group at Bakhmut , he only lasted 2 days before being KIA.

[@michaelthayer5351]

The issue I foresee this year is Zelensky doesn't want to do additional mobilization, but has picked a general and a strategy that is extremely manpower and resource intensive that will necessitate additional call ups, lest the force become exhausted and suffer the same fate as the Russians at Kharkov in September 2022. Additionally now that you've fired Zaluzhny you no longer can use his reputation and the respect of him in society and the military to soften the blow of additional mobilization on morale. If 500,000 had been called up while Zaluzhny was in charge there might have been grumbling and protests, but the Ukrainian people would have ultimately accepted it as they broadly trust Zaluzhny and his plans to fight the war. It's just a mistake, a political mistake for sure as the only benefit of replacing Zaluzhny with Syrsky is it gives Zelensky more direct control over the Ukrainian military and strategy.

[@Zeitgeist_Dron]

It wasn't a pocket until Russia made it a pocket Avdiivka was the most fortified place on the front. Fortified since 2014 Avdiivka is the gateway to Donetsk Avdiivka allowed the ukranians to launch indiscriminate artillery attacks on central Donetsk The assertion that russian losses are times higher than ukranian is borne to be false that Ukraine "has a lack of infantry". How is that possible if their losses are so low Russia is demonstrating a new capability to break through fortified positions. FAB 500 / FAB 1500 with glide kits } destroy position } infantry / armoured assault } rinse and repeat

[@seanmellows1348]

Excellent discussion, very sobering.

[@delta5297]

Regarding defense spending, I agree we should arm Ukraine. But this would be a much easier sell politically if hawks hadn't discredited themselves by crying wolf, increasing the defense budget in both rain or shine, and used this as a divisive political issue. It would also be an easier sell politically if we had shown similar urgency in funding healthcare, efforts to fight climate change, fighting poverty and disease, improving governance etc. These are less sexy issues, but they're no less important.

[@vaughnwarren8446]

"This is going to be a very challenging year for Ukraine" - ya think??? "Thanks, NATO - great doing business with you." "To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, to be its friend is fatal" ~Henry Kissinger

[@darrencorrigan8505]

Syrsky is building a line of reinforced positions, which wasn't being done under Zalushny..

[@horsemumbler1]

Recalling Soviet officers was a mistake.

[@conflict_monitor]

Enjoyed the podcast. Why haven't 2nd lines been established? Corruption? 700 vehicles is purely speculative & Avdiivka was already a rout before Syrsky ordered a withdrawal Attrition is not a viable strategy when your adversary has literally more of everything The catastrophic losses are getting harder to hide.

[@looinrims]

Private property rights, lack of construction crews, Russian harassment by fires They don’t have more of everything in loss comparisons It’s also not purely speculative

[@vonduus]

Ukraine lacks manpower to generate reserves. In other words: Ukraine has lost the war, no matter how much money you send their way.

[@rocko7711]

🥰😍🤩😘

[@johnwalsh4857]

yep and its not only local Russian mobilization and conscruption , the Russians probably mobilized tens of thousands of Foreign volunteers form third world countries , I remember reading the number estimated was around 50K foreign volunteers from Nepal, India, Egypt, China, , Syria, Cuban, NIcragua, Burkina Faso, DRC etc. In fact there are rumors that some African countries have sent their prison convicts to Ukraine under the auspices of Russian PMCs based in Africa.

[@martinsmith9054]

That's nonsense. Poor Russians from the far flung regions of the Federation, and people from the ex-Soviet 'Stans who get Russian citizenship for enlisting in the army yes, a worldwide horde no.

[@johnwalsh4857]

@@martinsmith9054 I think you are really behind the world news. They actually interviewed a bunch of Nepalese Russian volunteers and he saw a lot of foreign Russian volunteers being trained for Ukraine, fortunately most of them are cannon fodder and they suck. life expectancy is about a month before they become fertizlier.

[@johnwalsh4857]

@@martinsmith9054 and yes these third world volunteers are promised 2K USD a month and a Russian citizenship. but here is the kicker, most of them are not paid, they die, not paid , no citizenship heck even if they live get wounded they also dont get paid. Yah the foreign horde is a sucky horde. they are poorly trained and serve as cannon fodder and a step above he convicts. very expendable.

[@jusmeetsingh1907]

​@@johnwalsh4857Veey true. Russia has several dozens of foreign volunteers. Maybe more than a hundred even. But we should definitely exaggerate.

[@martinsmith9054]

@@johnwalsh4857 Yes there were a few Nepalese, a few Africans, a few Syrians and Iranians. But not tens of thousands. If they don't have at least a rudimentary understanding of Russian they are not welcome, which severely limits the recruitment of foreign volunteers. Most who do are probably migrant workers living there for some time.

[@rodrigoescalante5456]

Welcome back to reality 😢

[@supersasquatch]

it makes more sense for men who already the gift of living their time to go fight then the young ones to sacrifice theirs, when possible.

[@KILLERAOC]

That type of thinking is what leads to Army’s having outright combat refusals and mutiny. “You’re old and useless and we’re gonna shovel your ass into a furnace because we’re better off without you” - is a recipe for a rapid breakdown. Especially i an era where you can see the kids laughing it up both in and out of the country avoiding conscription

[@Rokaize]

Umm. No. They don’t possess the fitness

[@looinrims]

9:40 I disagree, just imagine the skeptics in the west if Ukraine kept surrendering territory

[@looinrims]

That outro hurt to listen to, Ryan, you okay man?

[@gsd2085]

Just sue for peace.

[@kayt9627]

Russia doesn’t want peace. Why have part of the country when you can have all of it?