Tory wipeout predicted, Covid convictions amnesty and England v Denmark preview | The Daily T

Rishi Sunak could be the first prime minister in history to lose his seat, according to new exclusive polling for the Telegraph by Savanta. The poll puts the Conservatives at just 53 seats and the Labour Party at a landslide 516.
Savanta’s political research director Chris Hopkins joins Camilla and Kamal to unpack the data, including the big beasts in trouble, and why Rishi Sunak is still struggling to move the polls.
Plus, former Justice Minister Sir Robert Buckland is on The Daily T to explain why he is calling for an amnesty for 29,000 people given criminal convictions for breaking Covid lockdown rules.
#politics #tory #sunak
Read and listen to more here: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024...
00:00 Intro
01:44 Poll reaction and interview
15:25 Tory big beasts under threat
20:58 Sir Robert Buckland on Covid laws
28:14 Readers comments
29:34 England v Denmark preview

[@alexcoleman589]

Net Zero Seats for the Tories.

[@MAC_ABC]

53 seats too many!!! Who are voting for the conservatives nowadays?

[@Elizabeth-jd3mn]

Tribalists and terminally terrified of Labour, everyone else has gone.

[@Tymbus]

er...conservatives?

[@Art_Gold_Finger]

Landlords and bankers. They are down to the absolute core.

[@captainlengthwidth6692]

The Saga Gaga wrinklies who still think the queen is alive

[@monkeyman4556]

Indians = sunak

[@Stephanie-wf6xr]

Please let all the cabinet lose their seat. 😂😂

[@TonyToning-ne7uq]

The CON's will CON no more!!!! THANK GOD....

[@kenmay1572]

As many as 53 but 53 is 53 too many

[@user-cn2uh1jy4e]

Tory wipeout.Well done Fishi.

[@TerryJC1971]

Tory panic 😂😂😂😂

[@snotwurfit]

Tories OUT

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

The Tory Party 1834 - 2024 RIP Gone but never forgiven. They will be gladly missed by so many.

[@JelMain]

They started in the cruelty of the Corn Laws, and ended in Covid

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

The Tory gravy train has come to the end of the line, I hear McDonald's are hiring.

[@JelMain]

They've given up on Artificial Intelligence.

[@rorytaylor5499]

In the past, the Telegraph was a voice of competence and moderation. In recent years it has espoused right wing populism as in Brexit. Its editors and journalists should take their share of responsibility for the dire situation in which the Conservatives find themselves. The Telegraph was a cheerleader, or at least enabler, for the botched policies and corruption which seem likely to result in a Labour victory.

[@Elizabeth-jd3mn]

I voted Reform with my postal vote here in Rishi's constituency. There are no 'vote Conservative' signs here anymore. Lots of shy Reformers.

[@sonofsomerset1695]

Just voted Reform too, lets go!!!!

[@geraldbutler5484]

What a waste of a vote. Conservatives would steal the chicken and Reform wouldn’t be able to organise a raffle for it. Vote Labour.

[@TOP.FOX.]

​@@geraldbutler5484and get sir bend the knee as PM. the man who removed his poppy so not to upset muslims.

[@Steven-vo4ee]

@@sonofsomerset1695 ...straight to the IMF betting bowl in hands.

[@RestWithin]

Nothing wrong with Rishi in principle he did his job all except for REVERSING MASS IMMIGRATION

[@CharlieInDaUK]

ZERO SEATS!

[@goldboy150]

They’ve actually got to the point they’re complaining about the polls now! Where was all this concern about rampant polling in 2019? I’m just waiting for the Tories to come out in favour of electoral reform post election now

[@timsmith5754]

DITCH MURDOCHS INFLUENCE LET PEOPLE LIVE ❤

[@fatwalletboy2]

Seeing sunak on those campaigning visits at factories etc us cringing as he ensures he gives the camera his gurning smile.........2 weeks to go and knly now is he talking of helping working families.

[@sakshambhadoria9998]

Saving face is the main priority of the Tories because governance gaffes, scandalous tenure in power, revolving occupants as the head of government and rise of the reform party which is likely to dent its votebank have already sealed its fate much before the announcement of elections.

[@Helen-nl9lv]

God. His gaffes have been a great laugh though. So good, he must be being set up 😅😅 😅😅😅😅

[@georgewaters6424]

lol she said "Common sense minister" with a straight face!!!

[@alessiocortez6520]

Make Zero Seats Happen.

[@alanfrost4661]

Lose his seat Time was when traitors lost their heads!

[@pastyman001]

The polls shift around between parties on right or on left, but not between left and right. Tory + Reform 37% all year. Labour + LibDem + Green 59% all year. Tories still deserve to lose very badly or worse.

[@user-ev4rp3qb6x]

A wipeout for sure , but will Labour be any better , Birmingham council is bankrupt let us hope they don’t do the same to Britain………. We shall see over the coming months and years …….

[@ant7936]

First Class seat to USA- the only seat that counts!

[@user-zc4yd9ss7h]

Desperately trying to feather their own nests with these bets.

[@user-js3rg9sj1k]

USELESS

[@nevillespence6101]

It's not like Sunak was elected, Reform 24pct and counting , this is fast turning into a peoples revolution VOTE REFORM

[@muhammadzayanizulkifli620]

While The Telegraph refused to acknowledge the popularity of the independent candidates. And The Telegraph wrote ridiculous headlines, again about Russia. 😂

[@georgewaters6424]

lol Robert Buckland interviewed seriously!!! Sorry DT is not a serious newspaper, I'm out! Byee

[@radman8321]

Labour don't need to go through every possible tax and rule out changes. No parties do, not least the Tories.

[@hollyjenkins1500]

Telegraph poll had reform under “other” lol try harder

[@user-ev4rp3qb6x]

They don’t gave people skills, so no job……

[@christopherblackburn6811]

Well the poll had them on no seats so it makes sense.

[@user-it7lf7kk8m]

What about an amnesty for "woke crimes" , like prison sentences for posting stickers, or using hurty names or refusing to use pronouns?

[@mesolithicman164]

...because Modelling has been SO successful with things like Covid.😂😂 This sounds like a wheeze where a couple of guys pretend they can predict something from the comfort of their living rooms without actually doing the real work of SPEAKING TO THE PEOPLE, and using actual human interaction to develop their predictions. A very of the moment solution for the laptop class. Smoke and mirrors.

[@andyduggan7810]

I'm trying to get treatment for Schadenfreude Overload Syndrome, but I can't get a GP appointment.

[@JelMain]

There actually is a thing called Transmarginal Inhibition. Stops the brain overloading.

[@davidhorn6008]

9th June - Only 15 more days Sunak, (2022 triple lock thief).

[@alancoates4531]

Vote Labour get the Tories out.

[@jlpetley]

Remainers blame the Tories for delivering a Brexit. Brexiteers blame the Tories for not delivering a proper Brexit…

[@radman8321]

Correct. That's because every leave voter had their own idea of what the future should look like. Pleasing that many different factions was never going to be possible, especially once the general public decided that Brexit is a failure, and many feel they were lied to. #cakeism

[@captainlengthwidth6692]

@@radman8321Well we were lied to, repeatedly.

[@rogerphelps9939]

Brexit, whatever version, is a disaster.

[@VinceLammas]

I'm sorry, but any suggestion that Labour would have a different responsibility for being more explicit about their intentions just rings hollow in the context of the actions of the Conservative Party since 2016. Where was their responsibility to explain the details and impact of their policies relating to economics and industry?

[@hauskalainen]

The Brexit vote had perhaps 15% voting remain just to put a punch on the nose of David Cameron and another 15% who were less committed Brexit supporters (who felt let down by Austerity) who just thought it was worth a try. The reality of course is that Brexit could not succeed. Britain is just in slow decline. And Starmer can only hope to slow the decline and leave open the hope that a future generation will support rejoining the EU.

[@shootsteel]

I am half expecting to wake up on the 5th to find that we have another BREXIT moment. 17.4 million votes for REFORM might not get them many seats, but it will cause an almighty constitutional crisis. I cannot vote for either of the 'two cheeks', I will therefore be voting for REFORM and so will almost everyone I speak to.

[@Koi-addict33]

Ditto

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

The bell tolls for brexit as well as the Tories, at least that's one thing to thank Reform for, it's the only good thing they'll ever do for the country.

[@rogerphelps9939]

There will be two or three million misguided votes for Reform. It will be opread thinly and they will be lucky to get a single seat. Forrage will be spending the 5th of July thinking uo yet another nasme for his pretend party.

[@christopherblackburn6811]

The polls had leave winning the referendum within the margin of error. The polls would have to be wrong on an unprecedented scale for Reform to get 17.4 million votes

[@PSYCHIC_PSYCHO]

Highly uneducated brainless subhumans have been deceived into believing that Reform U.K. is the political party of the ordinary Working-Class people, but in reality they are no different from the Conservatives and the Conservatives MK2 (New Labour), because: 1) Reform U.K. wholeheartedly supports our highly unethical economic system which can only thrive on the exploitation of the lowest paid workers. 2) Reform U.K. are totally against introducing a genuine Living Wage. 3) Reform U.K. claims that it is anti Globalisation, yet contradicts itself by not wanting to replace our highly unethical economic system which goes hand in hand with Globalisation. 4) Reform U.K. are utterly ignorant on the topic of the conflict in Gaza with their highly unethical support for 🇮🇱, which will compound the problem because their allegiance to 🇮🇱 will only invite terrorism to the U.K.. 5) Immigration is definitely not the most important issue in the U.K.; the most important issues concerning the U.K. are rising inequality, and our highly unethical economic system; considering the above points only brainless subhumans support Reform U.K.

[@Excommunicated-ei1ep]

Can that Pollster actually Look INTO the Camera? He just comes across as Evasive, Defensive and Suspicious AF?

[@user-zi8lx5fw1w]

they'd make good uber drivers

[@JelMain]

Except you'd find the fare mysteriously doubles.

[@Rick-xp5sy]

Independent votes will be pretty big, Labour, tories and reform are not a great option

[@aleccap5946]

Mr Starmer, here's the key to No10, don't forget to let the cat out. Why doesn't he simply resign ?

[@sirbarringtonwomblembe4098]

It's not in a cat's nature to resign.

[@johnhopkins4012]

VOTE REFORM PARTY AND TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK. LABOUR WILL BE A DISASTER AS THEY WILL DESTROY OUR ECONOMY AS USUAL, AND WILL FLOOD MILLIONS OF ILLEGALS AND IMMIGRANTS INTO OUR COUNTRY. UK IS FULL UP AND OUR INFRASTRUCTURE CANNOT TAKE THESE NUMBERS. IT IS LABOUR WHICH FIGHTS TO KEEP ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT CRIMINALS and terrorists IN THIS COUNTRY. A VOTE FOR LABOUR IS A VOTE FOR AN ISLAMIC TAKE OVER. IMMIGRATION IS NOW KILLING THIS COUNTRIES INFRASTRUCTURE BUT THE WITLESS CHAMPAIGN SWILLING LEFTIES CANNOT SEE IT. VOTE REFORM PARTY AND TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK. Stammer has destroyed this country and the lefties have destroyed this country and they were not in power. They work behind the scenes killing this country. Wake up the British Patriots and vote REFORM PARTY.

[@andyo-southpawguitaruk5322]

Mrp. So it's a system designed around probability

[@johnhehir508]

Matt Goodwin poll labour 36% reform 24% conservative 15% ,A poll result from a poll carried out for GB news 🤔🙊🙈🙉

[@sirbarringtonwomblembe4098]

They all are.

[@Koi-addict33]

Back to his real home california

[@TonyFisherPuzzles]

Total lie. Tories are predicted to get 100 seats or more.

[@martinrose2833]

sweet ! just look at those faces . " When the herd moves , the herd moves " ( B. Johnson )

[@stevefreary7449]

What we need is when a prime minister resigns a general election should be called !!! Not replaced !! Sunak never elected by us !!

[@knobfieldfox]

I wouldn’t bet on it - literally! 🤣

[@vinlennox7658]

Balfour was SERVING prime minister in 1906 lost his seat. Dreadful rubbish

[@lydiaanello6208]

Terrible times for England

[@sfactory8253]

Why would that be ?

[@jameswright4236]

​@sfactory8253 our legislative system is in total anarchy and tearing itself apart from the inside, all the while the rest of us suffer for their mistakes. There is an active war in Europe that risks continental security and probably will escalate, dragging us all with it and sending thousands to their deaths. We need to remove all of these treacherous snakes in governments on both sides of the Atlantic, and have the people take full control for ourselves.

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

Don't worry Reform doesn't stand a chance.

[@daviecame]

Ohhh is the vote only England? Is it not a Union?

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

@@daviecame Unfortunately not, Westminster will be dragging the other 3 nations down with it as always

[@BurritoMagnifico]

23:51 "yeah absolutely, it was wrong and stupid, but it was right" getting sick of this 🐂💩

[@chrisspeksnijder1717]

Probability people, probability. Models are as good as their probability. Probability depends on inaccuracy, reliability of data... Etc, etc. Here I will remind people to the Covid mismodelling debacles.

[@MtbAddict109]

It's real.

[@lyudmilakutsenko7045]

That's how acute leukaemia is usually diagnosed. Hope, Russia won't try to treat it. With conventional methods: irradiation, bone marrow transplantation.

[@AngusmacTV]

'Smorgasbord' is entirely Swedish, not German.

[@R4STABAN]

Didn't Balfour lose his seat in 1906?

[@JelMain]

That's the thing about musical chairs...

[@lobbyskids2]

Every time I see Sunak he’s in a hi viz or wearing a hard hat. I’m glad he’s got a back up plan for when this prime minister job inevitably falls through.

[@brianjupp1748]

Working people who earn the average wage only pay income tax NI and VAT it cannot be clearer they do not make a living buying and selling stocks to realize capital gains and get dividends they get lucky and get given an asset that requires capital gains

[@peterduncan-smith463]

500 seats do not believe it

[@user-ne6pq8cw9q]

That means he won't be able to stop the boats 😂😂😂

[@JohnShaw-zm2pc]

After the election reform and the conservative party might merge together to make a new right-wing conservative party. The same old faces will scrabbling for seats. 😮

[@britainbetterthanyou]

If this model is true then the right-wing vote has basically vanished. RIGHT WING: 36% LEFT WING 60%

[@sfactory8253]

I think we have to count the Tories as left wing nowadays lol

[@edwardcoburn2595]

There not

[@Tymbus]

Labour are only notionally Left wing. They don't even argue for the redistribution of wealth, increasing the welfare state's safety net for people in difficulty and unable to work, ensuring people in work don't need to be supported by Universal Credit and the re-nationalisation of public services

[@johndaarteest]

@@sfactory8253 Both the Tories and Labour and under the WEF.

[@juliangilbert5465]

​@@johndaarteestThis is an antisemitic trope.

[@Excommunicated-ei1ep]

How come she’s One Way on this Platform…but be Completely Different, when she’s on GBNews?!

[@user-it7lf7kk8m]

The police ran amok during covid, unnecessarily draconian.

[@sidperry7748]

REFORM

[@Helen-nl9lv]

Camilla has tuned it down by 100% since her aggressive disgraceful rude interview with Richard Tice a few days ago. Obviously has a slapped warning. 😊

[@Tymbus]

Who are these people and why should I care about them?

[@mickkidston7344]

torygraph conservative puppies scrabbling to find an angle to attack a party with morals and a plan

[@pastyman001]

LibDems have had the best manifesto and the best campaign, with the most human leader. I've read this over and over. LibDems are back and possibly bigger than ever. They might just edge into 2nd which would be a revolution in Uk politics - amazing!

[@benmarr352]

Im sitting in the car park at Catterick Garrison. In the middle of the Richmond constituency, given that Reform has an ex army candidate, there are 10,000 army staff based here and apparently Yorkshire people are practical (populist) I would suggest that local modelling would indeed be appropriate.

[@steveb9527]

Absolutely marvelous news😂

[@hauskalainen]

Hooray !!

[@TranquilSoulsMeditation03]

👍

[@margaretpepper3550]

Everyone I know is voting Reform. Their share of the vote has been completely underrated....

[@PSYCHIC_PSYCHO]

Highly uneducated brainless subhumans have been deceived into believing that Reform U.K. is the political party of the ordinary Working-Class people, but in reality they are no different from the Conservatives and the Conservatives MK2 (New Labour), because: 1) Reform U.K. wholeheartedly supports our highly unethical economic system which can only thrive on the exploitation of the lowest paid workers. 2) Reform U.K. are totally against introducing a genuine Living Wage. 3) Reform U.K. claims that it is anti Globalisation, yet contradicts itself by not wanting to replace our highly unethical economic system which goes hand in hand with Globalisation. 4) Reform U.K. are utterly ignorant on the topic of the conflict in Gaza with their highly unethical support for 🇮🇱, which will compound the problem because their allegiance to 🇮🇱 will only invite terrorism to the U.K.. 5) Immigration is definitely not the most important issue in the U.K.; the most important issues concerning the U.K. are rising inequality, and our highly unethical economic system; considering the above points only brainless subhumans support Reform U.K.

[@jamesburne3893]

Stop the rot, give Reform a chance.

[@PSYCHIC_PSYCHO]

Highly uneducated brainless subhumans have been deceived into believing that Reform U.K. is the political party of the ordinary Working-Class people, but in reality they are no different from the Conservatives and the Conservatives MK2 (New Labour), because: 1) Reform U.K. wholeheartedly supports our highly unethical economic system which can only thrive on the exploitation of the lowest paid workers. 2) Reform U.K. are totally against introducing a genuine Living Wage. 3) Reform U.K. claims that it is anti Globalisation, yet contradicts itself by not wanting to replace our highly unethical economic system which goes hand in hand with Globalisation. 4) Reform U.K. are utterly ignorant on the topic of the conflict in Gaza with their highly unethical support for 🇮🇱, which will compound the problem because their allegiance to 🇮🇱 will only invite terrorism to the U.K.. 5) Immigration is definitely not the most important issue in the U.K.; the most important issues concerning the U.K. are rising inequality, and our highly unethical economic system; considering the above points only brainless subhumans support Reform U.K.

[@secchu8812]

Tories go and find another job

[@twyscape]

And to think the British people assume that Labour will improve anything 😂😂. Glad I left the UK when I did back in 2007. What a pathetic country my homeland has become. I will never return to live there. All started with Tony Blair and his government.

[@darren2514fv]

Both Farage and Tice will be 65 in 2029 they are both 60 and Tice and Farage are not getting any younger where are the younger people in Reform UK to replace them and for Tice and especially Farage this is their last chance in getting a Westminster seat as Tice lost in Hartlepool in 2019 and Farage could lose for the 8th time which could mean 8 times he stood for the UK Parliament with 8 Defeats

[@knightofnii4659]

The country has got lucky. Farage will be too old by the 2029 or more likely 34 before he can have any chance of real power. Despite the electorate we should dodge his particularly brand of full on fascism.

[@sfactory8253]

Looking like the stars are aligning for him this time though . Only that Tory actor can stop him . Labour tactically voting Tory, who'd have thunk it

[@Koi-addict33]

Yet ask any political people who has had the biggest single impact on UK politics in the last 20 years and that's farage

[@sfactory8253]

@@Koi-addict33 Farage and Al Johnson .

[@zennow5073]

Is this polling guy Chris the son of whispering Bob Harris from the BBCs old grey whistle test.

[@zennow5073]

Kemi is the one who should have beat rishi if tory members and public could vote instead of only having wet tory mps destroy britain with sunak.

[@sirbarringtonwomblembe4098]

The public cannot vote for the leader of the Conservative Party.