As someone who studies the environment every day, I tend to forget that not everyone thinks in this way. For that, we have wonderful content creators like you guys. ty
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
Yeah, having a strong science background has caused me to see probabilities everywhere (the vast majority of reaction chemistry is actually statistics). But I don't think we need to put people through a chemistry degree to get them to think this way.
@bailey5667 жыл бұрын
Cole J. Have you seen cowspiracy? It's a life changing environmental documentary about an industry that is destroying the environment
@Coxy0026057 жыл бұрын
Cowspiracy is a "life changing environmental documentary", if you're scientifically illiterate. Next you'll be using "The China Study" to support veganism.
@clickaccept7 жыл бұрын
"I tend to forget that not everyone thinks in this way" We also tend to think of authoritarians as being evil. But actually, they are more often diligent people with goodness in their hearts, who just happen to think they know better than most everybody else.
@mjt15177 жыл бұрын
clickaccept, yeah...Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Hitler...all just good boys.
@MANA987 жыл бұрын
I need bill wurtz to explain this to me
@ShawnZiemba7 жыл бұрын
"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him." ~Leo Tolstoy
@RobertMilesAI7 жыл бұрын
I was considering posting a comment about "probability curves" vs "probability distributions", and then I read the video description.
@edmsquad7 жыл бұрын
All we gotta say is HAARP!!!!! ;) & don't believe the hype about it closing down or them not having any more of these babies
@Aint1S7 жыл бұрын
EDM Squad. I'm in the middle of the worse big city from the torrential downpour from Harvey... The flooding want so much from the rain, get it came down like I've never seen in my 36 years; however, when you find out that lakes are opening up their same... During the storm no less, you get BS propped up by false truths. That rain didn't climb up by 2 feet in 45 minutes and it sure didn't stop raining to raise it to date after... You know, when little monitor the rental at home and measure the ground level as well and all to find that the water was climbing faster than it could ever fall... The your sign Al Gore is looking to scream global warming with false positives. 28' above sea level, that's where we at as well as an hour drive from the dam South, and would you believe that people who were well below 28' were not flooding the day of the rain and we are surrounded by water. Boats on roads, kayaking was my land of checking depths for a few days and today those like laying areas are not flooding bad today to the point it is nearly impossible to travel in any vehicle. We're dry now! Vidor, TX
@ToyKeeper7 жыл бұрын
I'm just glad he's showing people the concept of a probability distribution, or a distribution in general. People misunderstand soooo many things because they don't have this basic concept! People say and believe things like "men are from Mars, women are from Venus", while the reality generally isn't that there are two completely separate distributions or curves... but rather two overlapping curves like what he showed in the video. There is a difference, on average, but the majority of area under each curve is shared by both. And there's a huge difference between two distributions having 80% overlap versus having only 20% overlap. But in common discourse, people often act like the only options are 100% and 0%, which leads to all sorts of problems.
@Bill-zp2mt7 жыл бұрын
Can someone please tell me why Americans don't build infrastructure to handle 100 year storms ? Is it cheaper to start from scratch every 100 years ?
@raoulbsantiago807 жыл бұрын
Aint1S what?! That was really hard to follow... omg, It was like reading a translated message/post/comment on Facebook ... I was like, huh? Wait, what?! Lol
@Master_Therion7 жыл бұрын
When a flat-Earther warms up to the idea of the Earth being a globe, is that Global Warming?????
@GordyByGordy7 жыл бұрын
And they walked a little bit taller that day. They walked knowing they had made a funny.
@Cythil7 жыл бұрын
Naa... They just call it climate change.
@ganaraminukshuk07 жыл бұрын
No, that's the expanding earth theory, which is weird.
@Grayhome7 жыл бұрын
When your friend wants you to climb a mountain, they tell you to "Climb it!" Then when you get to the top, they don't tell you to "Climb it!" anymore. That's "Climb it!" change.
@Joe-kh2ih7 жыл бұрын
Tyler Graham never thought about it that way before
@constancellc7 жыл бұрын
'NOT THE DOTS, THE CURVE' may become my new motto
@violetmoon15877 жыл бұрын
Its difficult to deal in absolutes when it comes to the weather, so it's appropriate to discuss the effects of global warming in terms of probability. Great points being made Hank
@guygeva73757 жыл бұрын
+
@violetmoon15877 жыл бұрын
Barry Allard I wish I had that level of accuracy in weather prediction where I am. It's anyone's guess what the weather will decide to do.
@Tom104427 жыл бұрын
Violet Moon +
@thomasbarton10507 жыл бұрын
Only sith deals in absolutes.
@cupcakewithouttheicing7 жыл бұрын
Very serious Hank to chill Hank in under 4 minutes
@saucejohnson98627 жыл бұрын
Cupcake Without The Icing He doesn't even get it right. He didn't even mention Al Gore. We can't save the earth without Al Gore.
@cmusba2207 жыл бұрын
Hank Chill
@hash4badi7 жыл бұрын
Jonathan Marsh I guess u could call it "climate change"
@kittenwispy7 жыл бұрын
Am i the only one that thumbnail looks like Rick and Morty's portal??
@mason3867 жыл бұрын
KittenWispy was literally just saying that lol. Kinda makes me think he did it on purpose for some veiws
@iMapleCreator7 жыл бұрын
KittenWispy it's the picture of the hurricane smh
@jahn777 жыл бұрын
Mason Christnagel that's a hurricane idiot
@justAguyDs7 жыл бұрын
KittenWispy no
@jatoru05877 жыл бұрын
SAME
@TheSucread7 жыл бұрын
Relative frequency of an event is an unbiased and consistent estimator of probability of an event. You may be more confident to say that it is indeed probability as the sample size grows larger and larger.
@Stevonicus7 жыл бұрын
I love the smell of statistics in the morning
@akatwitch7 жыл бұрын
Smells like... an above-average chance of getting the desired outcome.
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI Жыл бұрын
I think this video also highlights the difference between the Weather and Climate. Climate is what you can expect, but Weather is what you get. A warmer climate can make Hurricanes stronger over time, but individual storms are subjected to too many variables. It’s the same thing with temperatures, Global Warming means extreme heat will occur more often but doesn’t mean you can’t have an extreme cold event every once in a while.
@pasttenseroyalty7 жыл бұрын
YES!! I'm an actuary & it's really frustrating to try to explain this to people who don't want to think about the problem more deeply or don't want to actually talk it through for more than a minute in passing
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
Hey! It's one of the people who works for insurance companies! I told you!
@pasttenseroyalty7 жыл бұрын
vlogbrothers Hi! 🤗 actuaries are doing a lot of research on climate change right now since it has such a huge effect on insurance claims. There's even a Climate Risk Index we can use to account for the changing frequency/severity distributions in our models.
@ZoggFromBetelgeuse7 жыл бұрын
One might explain your curve like this: Imagine that each year on January 1st, some guy in a top secret weather-making facility in Area 51 launches eight dice. Each "one" results in a major storm hitting the US. The result will be what Earthling mathematicians call "Binomial distribution", a curve not unlike the curve you drew. Now, when the guy adds a nineth dice, the number of storms is still quite random, one might still have a series of "good years" or even a stormless year - but overall, higher numbers get slightly more likely, thus the curve shifts little a bit to the right. The effects of climate change on the number of storms are roughly like this (minus the guy in Area 51).
@maxjenkinson98707 жыл бұрын
Another brilliant way of explaining it
@emersonjakes81197 жыл бұрын
+
@LFTRnow7 жыл бұрын
Zogg! I have missed you. I've watched and loved all your vids and keep hoping you will do another.
@Xhalo11837 жыл бұрын
What type of dice is this person rolling and can we change the type?
@EdenNov7 жыл бұрын
Another great explanation from my favorite alien youtuber. Looking forward to the day you'd come back to making vids :D
@austingwiazdowski24697 жыл бұрын
This was a good clarification about something a lot of people misinterpret about probability. Good video!
@prathameshkale90117 жыл бұрын
Plz think about crash course statistics.
@GelidGanef7 жыл бұрын
That would probably be the most important series they ever did
@finitewehosh65427 жыл бұрын
CrashCourse Mathematics.
@Tweetie40187 жыл бұрын
YES
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
We're thinking!
@PolychronisKar7 жыл бұрын
+
@MarkThePage7 жыл бұрын
Unfortunately, in order to explain this stuff to people, you have to get them to listen. And why rack your brain understanding new concepts that challenge your worldview, when you could change channels and have an angry lady just tell you what to think? That said, Hank, you've done a great job making this science easier to understand and in a way that holds people's attention!
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
Some people choose to see the ugliness in this world...I just ignore the people we already lost and focus on the ones who haven't been exposed to this stuff yet...which is a lot of people.
@aenorist24317 жыл бұрын
To a pretty large one, i´d like you to google "XKCD Climate Graph" .... just ignore that its a comic, the graph is the main point.
@mith597 жыл бұрын
The climate has literally never changed this much or this fast across all of the data we have collected. What else could cause this other than billions of years worth of stored CO2 being dug up and released into the atmosphere?
@bambi38457 жыл бұрын
@Qrow Branwen If humans controlled the climate then there wouldn't be an issue. The issue comes from the fact that we are capable of influencing it as a side-effect of our actions as a species. Yes, no individual human truly has an enormous impact on the global climate; but through the burning of fossil fuels, mass farming particularly of cattle we upset the balance when you compound it by seven billion and increasing humans. You say that the climate changes all the time and this is true. However, the geological record shows us that this occurs slowly over time due to what is known as the "Milankovitch Cycles" which are the result of three different, calculable variables in the planet's position relative to the sun. These are Eccentricity (how elliptical the planet's current orbit path and is on a ~100,000 year cycle), the Axial Tilt (how much the planet is tilted on its axis which varies on a ~41,000 year cycles) and the Precession (how much the planet 'wobbles' as it rotates on its axis, on a ~21,000 year cycles). Knowing what we do about all of these we can model their effect on the climate, however they are not the only factor in natural climate change; also in play is volcanism and other natural sources (and sinks) of greenhouse gasses such as the life on the planet. With all this, and the geological data backing it up (mostly obtained from ice cores) we have a good idea of how and why the climate changes and both the evidence and the model by which greenhouse gasses can affect it is unarguably sound. Since the industrial revolution human carbon emissions accelerated dramatically, this cannot be denied as you cannot argue that these greenhouse gasses are _not_ being emitted and a rate beyond the natural rate. This is carbon that was locked out of the carbon cycle and would have remained so had we not burned it to break the bonds of its structure and bond it instead to oxygen, thereby harnessing that excess energy produced. This massive global increase in carbon emissions correlates with a gradual global temperature increase. Since the industrial revolution the global temperature has uncharacteristically risen by almost one degree (celcius/kelvin), which may not sound like much to you but for a global temperature system that is huge. For the record, the Permo-Trias mass extinction event, the largest in the planet's history in which 95% of all species on Earth died is attributed to a 5 degree rise. We may be a way off a 5 degree increase yet but it only gets faster from here as the initial temperature increase compounds when rising temperatures begin to thaw the permafrost in the cooler parts of the world, releasing masses of trapped methane (this also occurs when sea temperature consequentially rises and melts the massive frozen methane reserves trapped at the bottom of the ocean). I apologise for not linking sources but frankly it is 23:15; I am tired and am not going to the Uni library or digging out my textbooks to get proper peer-reviewed data. For this reason I have avoided going into explicit detail.
@naomicugini7117 жыл бұрын
Holy Rhino This was an amazing comment, thank you
@milesbrinkley71417 жыл бұрын
I got a skittle in my right nostril while listening to this, and because I was so engrossed in the content, I am just now aware of the skittle in my nostril.
@philiptouw36237 жыл бұрын
I really like the set up of this video, Hank! It's informative, but it's also attention grabbing.The video kept flowing naturally, and you kept the focus on one specific thing. The varied materials you used to show/talk about this, made it really, pretty awesome. ALSO AHHHH. YOU HAVE THE BOINKS FIDGET. I have a non marble one, and they're really noce. As a lover of fidget toys, I totally reccomend the tangle jr! They have different textures and colours and they're quiet and absolutely lovely. I now want a hank green reviews fidget toys (or just boinks, honestly) video. Look what a 10 second portion of a video has causes. Oh boy.
@ssatva7 жыл бұрын
Boinks fidget! Came down to comments to see if anyone could tell me what that was! Thanks!
@philiptouw36237 жыл бұрын
Wm Reeves Haha, no problem! I can even give you a few links if you're looking to purchase some. (They usually come in packs of 3 or more!)
@philiptouw36237 жыл бұрын
Anonymous Persons Well, not speaking for everyone, but for me it's almost like the way people collect pokemon cards? And then combined with the fact that they've a good way to focus excess energy/a healthy coping mechanism, they just ended up being a thing that I enjoy, and I suspect that it's the same for at least a few others as well!
@okuno547 жыл бұрын
One time I looked at my fingers and saw there was this black residue on them. Then I realized that I had fidgeted with my rare-earth magnets so much that the plating came off of them. Is neodymium poisonous? I dunno, but I put something fidgetable in front of my magnets and haven't had a problem since. These toys are a great was to trick your brain into fidgeting safely, or less annoyingly, and once you start optimizing that sort of thing, there's a whole rabbit hole you could fall down. Check out some of r/MechanicalKeyboards, or listen to the Pen Addict podcast, or ask a clerk at a local guitar shop (not Guitar Center) about the difference between two nearly-identical guitars.
@alexanderreusens76337 жыл бұрын
Okuno Zankoku Neodymium is toxic when breathing it, but it's probably not neodymium on your fingers. It quickly oxidizes away in air, so all Nd magnets have some sort of protective layer. I wouldn't eat that, but it should be harmless when exposed to the skin, otherwise the company that makes these have to pay up a large sum of money.
@paddywalsh72067 жыл бұрын
Statistically speaking, the Green Brothers are responsible for at least 90% of my remaining sanity
@dannnyc937 жыл бұрын
You joke, but seeing their videos really does help my overall levels of optimism about humanity throughout the weeks. Just knowing there are people out there like this who care about these issues AND are educated about them AND use their power and influence to try and work on these issues to make the world suck less. They really do inspire me to be a better person.
@emersonjakes81197 жыл бұрын
+ for both the comment and response
@woodfur007 жыл бұрын
I like to appreciate the little things in life, like a very nicely drawn curve at 1:58.
@Onihikage7 жыл бұрын
Is there a Crash Course on basic scientific literacy? Like, how to read a whitepaper from a journal and get an idea of how sound it is, or which kinds of studies matter more, such as systematic reviews vs experimental studies vs data analysis? These are things which should be taught in public schools but aren't - at least in my experience.
@Rhaifha7 жыл бұрын
Reading scientific papers that are not in your field of expertise and then judging if they are reliable is quite hard to do. But I do agree that a Crash Course scientific literacy might be good, maybe more discuss the characteristics of a good paper and what are the warning signs (with examples). How to interpret results or graphs etc.
@mcook60057 жыл бұрын
Yes! The ability to sift through bad data and statistical studies is SO important as well as even considering what types of bias the researchers have (or how studies can magnify biased data). Or even considering studies in conjunction (something practitioners often don't take the time to do) and knowing the benefits/limits of statistical studies (esp in certain fields) and even things like meta-analysis. That'd be rad.
@pendlera29597 жыл бұрын
Yeah, I dislike having to take journalists' word for everything because when I try to read their references I get completely lost.
@robertjarman37037 жыл бұрын
Onihikage Healthcare Triage does a lot to explain how scientific research is done.
@Coxy0026057 жыл бұрын
I'd say that books are a better bet here. Start simple with something like "Bad Science" by Ben Goldacre to get an overview, then go a little more in-depth - a U.K med school favourite being "How to Read a Paper" by Trisha Greenhalgh. I'm not sure of what the U.S equivalents would be.
@Joeobrown17 жыл бұрын
the scary thing is that people are only going to see a downwards slope and not take anything else from this video
@Evan940457 жыл бұрын
That's why Statistics should be mandatory in middle or high school
@nkn88207 жыл бұрын
Joe Brown this was a bunch of b.s. just say climate change thats all that matters
@mannysikario7 жыл бұрын
I'm taking a statistics class, and I get more what a probability distribution is thanks to you lol
@hixsongarren7 жыл бұрын
I'd like to add a bit more information on how these new data points actually affect us with regard to stormwater management. WARNING VERY LONG AND BORING ENGINEERING POST INCOMING!!!! So stormwater management in a nutshell is the process engineers go through during design in which they take into account how much water could fall on any given area and how that water will leave that area. How they do this is by taking into account 3 main things. 1. What size storm will they design for (100yr, 50yr, etc.)/how much water will fall. 2. How much water will be absorbed through the ground? 3. How much water will need to be detained and eventually transported off the site? This video shows how that first variable can change but that is not the whole story, especially when talking about a situation like what is happening in Houston. See, Houston has an incredibly good problem, too many people want to live there. So many people want to live there that developers want to make subdivisions and communities as fast as possible to capitalize on all the people coming into the city. This means that subdivisions are sprouting up everywhere. These developments are all using the same data. Data that is based on how the area was before all of this development happened. Data that doesn't include the MASSIVE amount of concrete and land development installed. This development reduces the amount of land that can absorb water since water can only be absorbed through the ground, not concrete. This development also increases the speed at which water leaves these sites. The only thing water travels faster over than concrete is ice. Within 10 years the city essentially double or tripled the number of roads in the area which in terms of a big storm like this was like tripling the speed at which all reservoirs would be filled. The reservoirs in the area were built prior to all of this development and based on data that was also collected prior to development. Therefore they over-topped days prior to when they were expected to because their calculations for when they would over-top were based on pre-development data. Overall, what Houston is facing is the result of a massive predictable problem that sadly just wasn't feasibly a preventable one. I hope that this changes the zoning laws in the area regarding stormwater management and forces contracting companies to abide by them in the future. Anyway, hope someone enjoyed that. DFTBA!!
@CChissel7 жыл бұрын
Robert Douglas Really enjoyed that. Got some insight on how that all works out. Thanks!
@DarkJonas337 жыл бұрын
Robert Douglas I'm a stormwater engineer and your explanation either sounds wrong or stormwater management in America is very flawed. The "pre development" case needs to take into account all the development that has occured prior. Also timing of flows needs to be taken into account. For example there is no point detaining flows in the lower catchment if this will just cause coincidence with peak flows from the upper catchment. The amount of rainfall in Hurricane Harvey was 1200 mm. That's the annual rainfall for a lot of cities. It doesn't matter what the land cover was, there was always going to be flooding. The fundamental problem is where we have chosen to build our cities. Low lying flat land is always going to be susceptible to flooding due to flows from upper catchments, high groundwater and high sea levels.
@hixsongarren7 жыл бұрын
Please reread what I wrote. www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/08/why-cities-flood/538251/ Most of what I was discussing i got from this article. What occurred in Houston is far from the norm here. But let me ask you this. How do you take into account hundreds of developers who are building things all at the same time? Do you force all of them to submit their stormwater plans to an overseer? What if they don't agree with you?Do you fight them in court while they build? What about the exploding housing market? Should they take that into account? They all did take into account all the development that was done prior to construction. But after they were done, there were a hundred more developers ready to keep building. Houston has gained over 4 million people in the past 15 years. So what it seems like happened to me was development occurred faster than data about the area could be collected. So when new developments were added they did not have correct information. Why did they do this? Houston needed houses for all the new people, fast. Also, if you work in stormwater management then you know that's a cop out to say to avoid low lying areas. Sometimes you can't. The Netherlands have been living fine below sea level and plenty of areas around the world flood every year. The trick is learning to plan accordingly and figuring out how to divert and store water. It's difficult, but it can be done and it can result in some excellent farmland for specific crops. Rather than be dismissive and insinuate the issue is the people for living in such a dangerous area, why not instead try to figure out a way to avoid this disaster in the future. Maybe look up sponge cities. It's what I think might be a decent idea, i just haven't done enough research yet. Regardless appreciate the comment! DFTBA!
@DarkJonas337 жыл бұрын
The way we approach development here in New Zealand is generally each development needs hydrologically neutral; that is the stormwater is treated on-site so that what is discharge is no different from the pre-developed case (in terms of timing and peak flows). Therefore it doesn't matter if there are a whole lot of other development going on as each site will only be discharging flows in the same way they did before the development occured. On the subject of building in low lying areas I do think it's a bad idea - well at least in the way it is done now. I'm not familiar with how high the land is in Houston relative to the sea but in NZ we have built on a lot of old swamps that are within 2-3 m (vertical) of current mean sea level. I think it is a matter of stormwater engineers to work with city planners to keep these areas serving a natural stormwater treatment function and also use them as parks. You can build near or below sea level but it can be very costly to constantly be running pumps. Personally I don't think the economics add up, especially when you factor in flood damage. If you want to have a purely gravity run stormwater network you have to build well above sea level.
@CL-go2ji2 жыл бұрын
That was awesome.
@tuckerprice96637 жыл бұрын
I think it's important to point out that this video is not just for people who don't think climate change is occurring. Those people probably are not watching Vlogbrothers. It's largely for those people who point to the destruction in Houston and say "look: climate change" (something I am also guilty of).
@SSGranor7 жыл бұрын
The thing is, there is a very real sense in which it is perfectly correct to point to climate change as a causal factor in Harvey's destruction. And, it's something that isn't captured by this video. Even if the number of major storms per year weren't (on average) increasing, the amount of damage caused by storms could still be made worse by warming in several ways. (Keeping in mind, in particular, that the definition of "major storm" is based only on maximum sustained wind speed.) First, global warming is raising sea levels, both due to melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and due to the thermal expansion of ocean water. This means that any given storm's storm surge will cause more flooding that would otherwise occur. Second, warmer air temperatures mean that any given storm can hold more moisture than it would otherwise, leading to greater rainfall. Third, warming affects the patterns of prevailing winds, which control the overall motion of storms. In the case of Harvey, weak prevailing winds are the reason the storm basically stalled over Houston, leading to the rainfall remaining in the same area for days on end.
@tuckerprice96637 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the reply! Those direct impacts were not things that I had given much thought to. The storm surge point is particularly interesting to me, and for anyone else who wants to look into it, here is a nice article from the National Center for Atmospheric Research: ncar.ucar.edu/press/evaluating-the-effects-of-future-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surges-along-us-coastlines
@donnash58137 жыл бұрын
Maybe we have more people that building more properties in costal areas so storms do a lot more damage because there is more to destroy. Seriously I think the problem is over population using too many resources and causing more pollution. Reducing emissions is near the point of no return but no one talks about population.
@malaciousmark39037 жыл бұрын
No one denys climate change. Anyone educated at all that is. But what people deny is how much are we really affecting it. The earth has warm and cool cycles some are more drastic then others. For example the ice age was simply the earth cooling down drastically. So the argument isn't why don't they think earth is warming up but how much are we really affecting it. We almost undoubtable are but it could be 90% from Earth and only 10% from our own emissions.
@luguy83476 жыл бұрын
Always have fun visiting you. I feel the difference from my childhood to my senior years. The extremes are there in the news, too. It’s really happening.
@clay56607 жыл бұрын
Thank you for this video Hank! The one thing I would say is that it's important to consider why people are so hesitant to accept climate change as a significant problem or to take tangible steps to combat it. Speaking as a New Orleans resident (born and raised), Louisiana relies heavily on the oil and gas industry as a source of jobs and tax dollars. So even though many residents know that working to restore our wetlands and promoting renewable energy will decrease the likelihood of catastrophic storms like Katrina, many are hesitant to confront the oil and gas industry head on.
@lauralab137 жыл бұрын
You guys, today is 19 years later, the final scene in the Harry Potter books!
@9_in_the_afternoon7 жыл бұрын
Laura L. TOO. MANY. FEELS.
@sylviasketches7 жыл бұрын
Laura L. NO
@General12th7 жыл бұрын
Thanks for reminding me! I loved the epilogue. I don't personally know anyone else that did, but I sure did.
@General12th7 жыл бұрын
Watch them all!
@sylviasketches7 жыл бұрын
It's sad to think that one of my favorite book series as a kid has its universe being closed. Still, I think I'll join you guys in watching some of the movies if I can.
@Dbm_-oe7zv7 жыл бұрын
Lol we are screwed. We debate more about if it's true or not rather than debating on how we are going to fix it.
@johannesstabe99596 жыл бұрын
co2 tax + dividend for starters
@talhatariqyuluqatdis5 жыл бұрын
Yup
@talhatariqyuluqatdis5 жыл бұрын
@@johannesstabe9959 yeah agreed 100%
@antran18605 жыл бұрын
yup brother, a comment section of people denial global warming in another video is the reason i found this video.. we so screwed.
@Jadenmic5 жыл бұрын
That's what the companies want us to do .. ever wonder why it became political in the first place?
@caitlynjones21477 жыл бұрын
The first 2 minutes of this video confused me so much that I've decided to go back to school. Thank you? I mean I really should've gone for my masters right away but boy what a kick in the butt this video was.
@untappedinkwell7 жыл бұрын
Best of luck on your future educational endeavors!
@AstroLizard7 жыл бұрын
So elegantly and simply explained. John and Hank are such great teachers!
@AscendantStoic7 жыл бұрын
No it's not, it's criminally simplified and actually pretty damn wrong.
@AstroLizard7 жыл бұрын
Really? I'm up for hearing a better explanation if you have one. (Not sarcastic.)
@buzzlightbeer42157 жыл бұрын
Too bad it's so wrong
@gyro42507 жыл бұрын
ignore the flat earthers Astro. This was as good an explanation as a layperson should hope for. Could he have said the predictive models show that the frequency of storms will go down? Sure but that would have just confused the issue and detracts from the fact that the storms we will have are predicted to be more intense and much wetter.
@buzzlightbeer42157 жыл бұрын
The deadliest hurricane in Texas was 117 years ago. 6000 people to 12000 people died.
@Lmjacks7 жыл бұрын
Hank, thank you for this video; it was very well researched and presented. Understanding the world around us and how it is changing is not easy, and videos such as this are valuable resources for learning.
@ariefraiser1407 жыл бұрын
I work for a car insurance companies and no one believes in climate change more than insurance companies. Our lively hood depends on our actuaries getting as much information and probability predictions as accurate as possible and offering as competitively priced policies as possible that reflects the risk for insuring your car.
@AdamSmith-gs2dv7 жыл бұрын
Arie Fraiser Oh course you do, it's a great way to scam people out of money and no one scams people more than insurance companies
@merrymachiavelli20417 жыл бұрын
+Adam Smith So what? You think climate change is an elaborate global hoax by home insurance companies so they can increase prices for the relatively small number at risk from climate change related property damage?
@hopefletcher91827 жыл бұрын
Thank you for SLAYING THIS EXPLANATION
@bens58597 жыл бұрын
suh lay grl. suh lay
@SwaaaggyB7 жыл бұрын
"With Great power comes Great Responsibility"- Uncle Ben
@Belboz997 жыл бұрын
Heat = Energy... Energy is what's needed to create these storms. We're rolling the dice every year, only now the dice are loaded. As we add more heat, it's like adding more weight to the already loaded dice.
@Pintexx7 жыл бұрын
I learned that global learning was real even before Obama was president... not politics just science
@AscendantStoic7 жыл бұрын
It has nothing to do with Obama, look up Al Gore and his hilarious An Inconvenient Truth movie in 2006 with loads of prediction about future Climate in 2013 and 2016, NONE of which came true.
@JustAnotherArtist1237 жыл бұрын
TheHunterWolf because we're not going to wake up one day and say look global warming did this! No it's a gradual process that can have a negative impact. Imagine you're walking in you're house and I place a brick on your floor. Are you going to trip over the brick? Not necessarily, but the likelihood of you tripping has increased. Does global warming mean we're going to get worse storms? Not necessarily, but the likelihood has increased.
@aids78997 жыл бұрын
TheHunterWolf That's because Al Gore isn't a bloody scientist. He's a politician himself. Why don't you actually focus on the climate SCIENCE and what actual Climatologists say in Peer-Reviewed scientific literature, science articles and textbooks instead of denouncing global warming and climate change because of a politician misconstruing scientific data to over-dramatise in a documentary? Make no mistake. Politicians who like to deny the science of global warming and climate change for political and monetary gain and politicians who like to over-dramatise global warming and climate change for political and monetary gain have damaged and confused the public and the reputation of real climate science just as much as each other.
@coolkid330007 жыл бұрын
AIDS well did you consider that al gore is ruining the concept by over exaggerating the impact to get money from congress, which is why these misconseptions exists?
@josephburchanowski46367 жыл бұрын
+AIDS Whether you like it or not, the general public isn't going to notice the actual science, only what they get feed by politicians and the media. Which if you ever hear the media talk about a study you yourself read, you'd notice the media isn't that good at presenting science. My point is that the public views what they see on the media and hear by the politicians as the actual science, you can't expect them to realize it isn't, they have no way to know it isn't. You don't hear many people trying to correct the public view on climate change. Vast majority of the public who believe in climate change don't even know much about it. I have ran into global warming skeptics with a better understanding of global warming and climate change than the average person I run into who believes it. You know you have a problem when people believe that UV rays cause global warming, or that the ozone has significant effect on global warming. The fact is that the damage is done, and you can't expect the public to fix the damage themselves, someone needs to properly explain it to them so they can at least repeat it without being completely wrong. If you think politicians are bad, just think how bad it is when a skeptic of climate change knows more about it that the believers around them, yeah I don't think they are going to change their mind to believing in it.
@punkrockgirlpa7 жыл бұрын
I am thrilled that this is trending :) such an important video :) thanks Hank!
@bfranklin697 жыл бұрын
so what my simple mind is getting is that global warming is more like a slow change in weather patterns overall, like rain season areas slowly shifting over to a different state or (or harricanes reaching new areas).
@Lolatyou3327 жыл бұрын
Brianna Franklin global warming doesn't exist, it is called climate change now. The climate has been changing for millions of years hitting an ice age about every 20,000 years or so. Carbon isn't destroying the earth since almost all life is carbon based.
@steliostymvios34467 жыл бұрын
@Lolayou332 The climate is becoming more hostile to us, that is the problem.Also 20,000?? Where did you even get this?
@Lolatyou3327 жыл бұрын
Stelios Tymvios it is a cycle because the earth doesn't rotate on a perfect axis; earth freezes for the same reason that the north pole is frozen. This happens about every 20,000 years. The last ice age ended at around 10,000 BC.
@Lolatyou3327 жыл бұрын
Stelios Tymvios also using correlation and saying in general "the planet is becoming more hostile to us" is nothing but superstitious. That is the equivalent of saying god is mad at us for using cars so he gives us disasters.
@buschwc7 жыл бұрын
Just like you can't drown in water because we need water to survive? Nailed it.
@bongobongo36617 жыл бұрын
Thank you for watching this episode of Scishow
@ilikeoranges46 жыл бұрын
I live in a very dry area. Every year the winters seem to get slightly drier here while hurricanes and tropical storms and blizzards keep happening in the wet parts of the country. Last year in school I had a class called environmental stewardship (I needed science credits and it counted). What I learned in that class led me to this realization that climate change is taking the water away from the people who need it the most and dumping it (sometimes catastrophically so) on the people who need it the least.
@JaceDiehl7 жыл бұрын
Who else thought there was a Rick and Morty portal in the thumbnail?
@lunasnightshade7 жыл бұрын
+Aryan Alliance MN how is he racist
@equinoxech02577 жыл бұрын
Luna Light because green is racist
@lunasnightshade7 жыл бұрын
EquInoX Ech0 are u just saying that to be funny and if so you are not
@arundhatikulkarni85877 жыл бұрын
I think people are willing to accept that the climate is changing but do not want to accept how much it is changing or how much the impact of that change is. Probability distribution and curves are sadly understood by a very small portion of the population and somehow we are in a world where we have to pay attention to those people's opinions on scientific FACTS. I wish we could ignore them just like they ignore us :(
@jaybrodell19593 жыл бұрын
Two observations: The most powerful Atlantic hurricane happened in the 17th century when both the French and British Caribbean fleets were destroyed. And hurricanes seem to form well north of the Equator instead of the warms equatorial waters. In fact, what we are seeing is a natural trend in temperatures that eventually will reverse into a new ice age. Just look at the historical and prehistorical records. News fact: it is better to be warm than very cold. See: www.cdm.org/mammothdiscovery/wheniceages.html
@tanimation72892 жыл бұрын
When exactly in the ice age going to start? 2050?
@aprilp6497 жыл бұрын
Anyone here after the studying livestream?? :)
@oneofmanyscrubsontheintern39057 жыл бұрын
April P Ho hoh, what's this about?
@julischrier7 жыл бұрын
April P lol YES with our tiny preview of the audio :D
@aprilp6497 жыл бұрын
One of many scrubs on the Internet He did a livestream yesterday on youtube!
@Whitsum907 жыл бұрын
Hey Hank, question - I thought your visual of the curve moving was a great way to explain how incremental climate change occurs and what the effects are. It seemed to imply that as the curve moves right on your graph, weaker storms that are more common now would be more likely to develop into stronger storms. Is there a potential that we would see the graph even out and then reverse its curvature (so that it ascends moving right on the axis instead of descending) as climate change continues to occur? Or is it more likely that the curve stays the same in shape more or less, but the intensity of the storms at the far end of the spectrum increases, as the average strength of storms also increases (aka we'll eventually have category 6, 7, 8 hurricanes)?
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
The shape the curve is turning into is a topic of much study by people who actually know what they're talking about. One thing we are seeing is that this doesn't mean there will be more storms, there may even be fewer. There will just be more /strong/ storms. But one strong hurricane can take the place of multiple named tropical storms. So there is some thought that this might be a matter of storm strength (especially wetness) as much as it is of storm frequency.
@Sporkredfox7 жыл бұрын
I'd just like to point out though that if it is truly a probability distribution than both sides of the curve will always tend towards zero because the AUC must sum to 1. So no, the curve won't ascend going to the right.
@meloche1syndrome7 жыл бұрын
Aren't there very many places which are called "100 year flood plain" or even 200-500 years. Insurance companies understand the Weather patterns in the ares which they insure homes or autos. There's no doubt that warm weather and cold weather hitting each other creates huge storms. But, i think that historically it's evident that there is a rise and fall in global temperature and storm activity and that we're not making as big an impact as we think we are. But, that being said, as we think we are, still allows for some affect in weather patterns, I'm chalking it up to bottling water at spring sources and shipping water around in containers, that has to make a bigger lasting effect because it nesses with the water cycle ij a big huge way
@KevinSmith-qi5yn7 жыл бұрын
It's actually really difficult to obtain accurate temperature data over a multi-decade period. For surface temperatures, there may be urbanization around the site, the tools may be damaged, and so on. For satellite data, they have to be replaced every decade and the satellite may not measure the same area every day. As a result most data we get is corrected. A larger debate is if the corrections are valid. Most of the corrected data is for sites that have a cooling trend verse a warming trend. Yet most corrective measurements should prune warming trends instead as most of the external effects like new construction will cause warmer temperature.
@Aphreditto6 жыл бұрын
meloche1syndrome can I see your PhD in bottled water climate studies? Scientists don't just guess carbon emissions create a warmer planet because it sounds right. They produce evidence. Evidence that Exxon mobile and others try to propogandize against to make you think it's not a big deal
@derchesten7 жыл бұрын
Hey! He turned into vhart for a second! He lacked triangles, but it was fun
@tristanneal95527 жыл бұрын
If there's anything I hate, it's when people who don't understand science pretend they're expert scientists. No, I'm not referring to the well educated and supported vlogbrothers videos. I'm referring to the stubborn climate change deniers flooding this comment section, flaunting alternate climate theories that have already been explained away and disproven in a thousand different videos and journal articles but which still float around internet echo chambers regardless.
@jmuld17 жыл бұрын
Oh! Tristan a "man of science" please share with us a little science supporting man made global warming other than my its hot.
@thatoneguy12077 жыл бұрын
If you want an expert scientist, here you go. kzbin.info/www/bejne/imWWp5Zqg7-Ii8U
@Zoot1017 жыл бұрын
+
@andrejansen32817 жыл бұрын
2polohunnie 7.2B?
@thomasstewart28707 жыл бұрын
Tristan Neal Protip: this is also an Internet echo chamber. Look up actually arguments against man caused climate change instead of repeating your echoes
@gentlydirking49127 жыл бұрын
Ah, hank, probability is such a useful concept to break down. Last summer, my region had first an unusually dry season, then the worst disaster I'd ever experienced. The second worst flood in recorded history, in a flood zone (I've been here over a dozen floods). I don't want to say Australia had an abnormal pressure system that caused a massive flood and now America has had the same experience, during the same season. I'm eager to see next years weather patterns, if they shift, are they really shifting, and how quickly. DFTBA and never trust statistics, they're super bias prone.
@henryg52987 жыл бұрын
Am I the only one that thought he was holding a fork with mac n cheese on it in the thumbnail?
@lukeario81817 жыл бұрын
G•nzillq The Moose that's a fantastic spot haha
@jocyjocy93017 жыл бұрын
I love you.
@UtahStories7 жыл бұрын
3:09 "The more carbon we release into the atmosphere the more these curves shift" -- Could you cite from where do you get your information as your basis to make this claim? I'm trying to get to the bottom of "man-caused" global warming, and I'm having a difficult time finding the best scientific data that actually makes a conclusive connection to man's carbon and warming.
@evgeniiakapustina5 жыл бұрын
Utah Stories ipcc reports. Check out the summary for policymakers, they are more “readable” for a non-expert
@lonenomad85834 жыл бұрын
@@evgeniiakapustina the IPCC uses fraudulent data and dosent listen or flat out removes quotes from scientists who disagree so
@michac47447 жыл бұрын
Quick note on recurrence intervals - these are heavily impacted by the length of the observational records are based on (and the average climate over that time) - so a 'one in one hundred year' flood may not be representative of a one in one hundred year flood.
@yanitataaa7 жыл бұрын
Houstonian here, my neighborhood looks and smells like a swamp- at least my house is safe.
@philiptouw36237 жыл бұрын
Adriana D Glad to hear that you and your house are okay.
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
Very glad to hear it.
@lampardkipler74137 жыл бұрын
gonna be honest i didn't completely understand the video but I appreciate the passion put into it
@RazorStrap7 жыл бұрын
I'm going to be honest too. I want to hear from the MSM as much about global cooling during winter cold spells as I do about global warming during summer heat waves.
@vigilantsycamore87507 жыл бұрын
You might, if overall trends indicate a steadily increasing amount of cold spells and winter in general becoming longer over time, in correlation with such factors as volcanic activity or increasing absorption of carbon dioxide and decreasing emission of the same, as well as the predicted effects of such a shift in climate - increasing glaciation, less water from melting snow going into rivers, more rainfall, falling sea levels. Since, you know, such a context would make the situation analogous to what's currently going on.
@kevingonzales97047 жыл бұрын
Basically (could be wrong) from what I understood we shouldnt be focused on the amount of disasters that accour (the dots) but instead the change in the model. So as example if you graph sin of x youll see a infinate going wave. That would be like the trend throughout history. Disasters happen they dont cycle repeats. However instead of the graph staying consistent in recent years it has been changing. Maybe the frequency of this wave is increasing due to outside variables (humans).
@EricYouTube5787 жыл бұрын
Can you please do a crash course on statistics / probabilities?! The world needs it!
@evelynchavez30757 жыл бұрын
If the probability curve is changing, due to a number of factors, will we ever be able to bring the curve back to its original state if we end global warming? Or have we caused irreversible damage?
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
Mostly, we want to keep the curve from shifting more, rather than put it back where it once was.
@satyadivyach45447 жыл бұрын
I have been concerned about the same after watching this video. Thanks.
@TheWeakMinded7 жыл бұрын
Evelyn Chavez as of now, we have no ability to reverse only reduce. The most effective means of reducing impact are nuclear power plants and genocide. Only one is really an option ;)
@pendlera29597 жыл бұрын
I think the goal at the moment is to slow down the change so we have enough time to figure out how it can be reversed. It's worth noting that even if we magically reverse climate change in the future, some of the damage, like the extinction of species, won't be undone.
@bailey5667 жыл бұрын
Pendlera animal agriculture is the number one cause of species extinction primarily because 1000 acres of the rainforest is chopped down every second for it, please watch cowspiracy
@happypirate10007 жыл бұрын
At 3:19 I was like: "What?? That's the quickest four minutes EVER." lol
@cmfletcher1237 жыл бұрын
This is a fantastic video! Oh my gosh, more people would be more inclined to listen to concerns about global warming if more people approached it like this!
@AB-eq9mm7 жыл бұрын
Don't let global warming distract you from the fact that the seahawks didn't run the ball.
@goulash67377 жыл бұрын
* * yea, we have to focus on the important things in life.
@NOVAKza7 жыл бұрын
why did you have to remind me
@Michael-bp5wu7 жыл бұрын
The thumbnail is actually Ricks portal gun
@GionnyBanana7 жыл бұрын
Thank you, some notions of probability that were not clear in my courses are now a bit clearer :)
@starcherry68147 жыл бұрын
He made this so clear to understand!
@connorm34367 жыл бұрын
Weird. The thumbnail time says 4 minutes but the video says 3:59 🤔
@vlogbrothers7 жыл бұрын
Apparently, time is subjective to KZbin.
@LaydayEruanna7 жыл бұрын
I really appreciate learning more about those curves and probability distribution.
@fossilfighters1017 жыл бұрын
Hank you have really nice hands.
@CogsFixmore7 жыл бұрын
you just wanna feel them on your body
@merri-golden88267 жыл бұрын
Oh no , serious matters being discussed! Beware the flame war in the comments . Beware the flames in the forest . Beware the ignorance of humanity And most importantly Don't Forget to be awesome
@alfredabraham78227 жыл бұрын
peculiar pets I don't see any flame war yet.
@acenog1237 жыл бұрын
I would like to say that if you want to know more about how the distribution works then look up Maxwell - Boltzman Distribution and learn how average velocity relates to temperature.
@jimalbi7 жыл бұрын
The shifting of the curve likely means in the long term what is now classified a «tropical storm» could become a category 1 hurricane and category 4 hurricane could become a category 5 thanks to global warming because of all the energy added to the system. This is grossly put but I think you can get the idea. Of course, this doesn't just apply to hurricanes but many other things.
@fallendaemon7 жыл бұрын
No, that's not what it means. That is not how probability works, and it's not how weather works.
@ShorlanTanzo7 жыл бұрын
More like, up to this point we've been dealing with meager Level 1-3 Kaijus. We thought things were tough back then. Now we're dealing with category 4-5 Kaijus and the catastrophic damage is on a whole new scale! We need more Jaeger pilots! Join the Jaeger Uprising!
@wbspidr137 жыл бұрын
Hello friends
@vickyceledon12157 жыл бұрын
Sean Bates hello friend you are the actual first person to comment on this video! Have a cookie 🍪
@Xenolilly7 жыл бұрын
Hello
@feynstein10047 жыл бұрын
Ollo
@Boborbot7 жыл бұрын
This is an informative yet roundabout way to explain an interesting human bias. We suck at math, and seeing in just how many ways never gets old.
@someonemstr17 жыл бұрын
Anyone else who thought it was a Rick and Morty portal in the thumbnail?
@ironmonkey3497 жыл бұрын
The Best Climate Intellectuals in the world: Insurance Companies !
@AnimilesYT Жыл бұрын
And if I recall correctly the curve of number of storms should shift to the left with a warmer climate. Less hurricanes per season, but the ones that will happen will on average be stronger and affect a larger area which causes more casualties and damage than a few more weaker storms
@howtubeable7 жыл бұрын
Another good video. Hank did one of my pet peeves though. He said that Katrina hit New Orleans. It did not. The levees broke, and New Orleans flooded. Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The difference is important.
@julieneal42567 жыл бұрын
Harvey did not hit Houston either.
@Thompsoncorv7 жыл бұрын
"Katrina negatively affected New Orleans" happy?
@popeyegordon7 жыл бұрын
Idiotic semantics. It happened, fool.
@carlosoliveira-rc2xt6 жыл бұрын
Howard Wiggins He doesn't let facts get in the way of his video.
@jadejenkins32156 жыл бұрын
Oh wow what a big difference
@krampus2257 жыл бұрын
3:05 Not necessarily the future we have to accept. If our so-called elected officials would have kept us in the Paris Climate Agreement, we challenge multinational corporations to commit to greener efficiencies, and we all accept our own (especially Americans) responsibility in the consumption of natural resources and waste we produce and work to minimize, we MIGHT expect a better future. The future is in our hands.
@flintfredstone2287 жыл бұрын
Paris Climate Agreement is a stupid-ass public relations piece of shit that countries make to look good. There have been other climate agreements in past years, and nobody enforces them or tries to abide by them.
@Lolatyou3327 жыл бұрын
Krampus climate accord was a wealth redistribution program with a non-binding agreement.
@themaximus1447 жыл бұрын
Krampus I'm not happy we left the Paris climate agreement either. That said, it's also not the worst thing in the world to have happened. America still have a booming green industry on our hands, and many of our states have vowed to continue on with the agreement anyways. Further, there were also problems with the agreement to begin with. Namely, they were unnecessarily lax on China, one of the world's largest polluters, and also a known humans rights abuser. All this said, I do still wish we had stuck with the agreement, if only to keep us on good terms with the Europeans, and also so that we could have had more leverage in making changes to the deal which are more favorable to us as a country. I just don't think it's the worst thing to have happened.
@PatrikKron7 жыл бұрын
The Paris Climate Agreement is not enougth. We need to cut emissions even more. I would argue that we need to "accept" some global warming and adjust our buildings and infrastructure to that, but we should limit the extent of the global warming by doing everything we can.
@1Vukk17 жыл бұрын
You said China is one of the world's largest polluters? If you look at CO2 (which is what most people go by), China pollutes more than USA, India, Russia, and Japan, combined (these numbers are 2015). My biggest problem with the Paris agreement, is the goal wasn't climate change, but to stick it to wealthy countries. If it is climate change, China would have needed to reduce CO2 emissions drastically. The agreement basically said China didn't have to do anything for years, if at all.
@amysinger22017 жыл бұрын
Hey Hank, great video! Can you discuss how the fires and the hurricanes are related? I don't understand why people are having such a hard time connecting THESE two dots...
@rfi-cryptolab42516 жыл бұрын
No one has made more money off "climate change" than Algore
@valayilpaul997 жыл бұрын
Maxwell Boltzman curve ;)
@AllAboutGamers07 жыл бұрын
It seems like now the conversation about Global Climate Change is shifting from "we need to stop this" to "we need to prepare ourselves for it and accept responsibility for it's consequences". From what I understand is probably the reasonable approach but nonetheless incredibly humbling. Maybe more so as an American than anywhere else shocks because we are taught from the day we are born that every challenge is able to be overcome. But the damage is done (in a sense and I understand that it isn't a dichotomy but a continuum), climate change due global warming is irresistable and we must be prepared.
@Dbm_-oe7zv7 жыл бұрын
Blow up the sun. Boom problem solved.
@jeremy62687 жыл бұрын
Any body else wish there was a way to come back and check the comments without giving a video any more views?
@IanK3b7 жыл бұрын
aweeee is little jeremy salty!
@popeyegordon7 жыл бұрын
They would never let that happen. Click bait revenue is the basis for KZbin's existence.
@maiafarinas71897 жыл бұрын
I need to find the halfway point between complacency and crippling anxiety. Then I need to figure out how to get there.
@caspertv24067 жыл бұрын
I just wanna say. Why do we get to determine what the earths "normal" temperature is. Let's say the worlds normal temperature is 6 degrees hotter than what the worlds temp is now. How would we know what it should be and that it's not global warming and it's more of that we were just in a cold stage. Also I find it funny that the earths average temp now is still colder than the average temp 6000 years ago.
@SwtBeat7 жыл бұрын
Cape Delayz We didn't just blindly decide what earths temperature will be, math/science was used to find it. Google is at your fingertips if you want to know how its discovered, that's what I use anytime I have a question about things I don't understand. Math/science also tells us what temperature current life can survive at and math/science/computers show us what effects are likely to occur if the earths temperature changes.(extinction for some things, but not others)
@hermitoldguy63126 жыл бұрын
Global annual average temperature is irrelevant to life on Earth - nothing experiences it. Life experiences weather - which is _vastly_ more challenging.
@williamchamberlain22636 жыл бұрын
What matters to people is how many are going to starve because rainfall decreases, or drown because of increased flooding, or eventually have their homes and farmland go under water.
@neberboi7 жыл бұрын
The earth is millions of year old and you have the audacity to make prediction based on 50 data points?
@vigilantsycamore87507 жыл бұрын
I've seen people committing the fallacy that because past instances of an event have had a different cause, the current instance cannot have the cause being attributed to it. This is, I believe, my first encounter with the fallacy that making a prediction on events in the near future based on recent data is audacious because the data only concerns a small portion of the timescale. And the Earth is actually billions of years old, but that's not the point. Also there are more than 50 data points - but again, not the point. The data points concern recent events and can be used to make predictions about the near future. It's not audacious to use the events of the last hundred years to make predictions for events that may happen in the next hundred years, regardless of how long other events have been occurring. If anyone's being audacious, it's you.
@shablamrobohawk11927 жыл бұрын
I really appreciate the layperson's explanation of what a probability distribution is
@thematt53257 жыл бұрын
I ate subway today.
@anthonyweinersnose25837 жыл бұрын
The Matt Me too! Tuna.
@hannahdaniels10716 жыл бұрын
The only relevant comment on this video
@seanmike82487 жыл бұрын
Isn't it possible we're just going through a cycle such as the ice age?
@pennypennington5937 жыл бұрын
Please make a video about how likely we are to die from different things paired with statistics! I've been Googling but get muddled information! It would be cool to know what is/ isn't realistic to worry about and what are the best ways to avoid death!
@ReelJustinLewis7 жыл бұрын
My theory... Manbearpig is real. LMAO
@johnquest31027 жыл бұрын
Well then stop driving cars, flying, heating, using electricity, you know, be a cave man, oh you do not want to? Well do not ask me to be either. You alarmists are such HYPOCRITES !!
@ronaldmcdonaldtrump44467 жыл бұрын
John Quest There are alternatives, but most of the climate change is coming from farm animals. Co2 is a problem that can solve it's self because plants can covert it to oxygen but can't convert methane
@zach12627 жыл бұрын
The issue isn't driving or "using electricity". The problem is our reliance on fossil fuels. Electricity can come from tons of cleaner, renewable places like wind, hydro, and nuclear. If you know literally nothing about the topic why are you making a comment about it?
@the7thage5767 жыл бұрын
Ronald McDonald Trump Co2 is at a deficit. That's a fact
@everflores94847 жыл бұрын
That's a lie, tho. Farm animals account for around 13% of CO2 emissions.
@aids78997 жыл бұрын
Ever Flores You misunderstood what he said. Key point in your comment being "CO2 Emissions". Animal Agriculture is the major source of Methane pollution into the atmosphere and Methane is a greenhouse gas about 10 times as potent as Carbon Dioxide. Because of this, Animal Agriculture is thought to actually be the main driving force of Global Warming, even more than CO2 emissions by transport.
@cominup857 жыл бұрын
I like your explanation of the distribution of probabilities to the dots.
@PIC18F7 жыл бұрын
When I was younger I developed a false impression that knowlegde was to be found in books, but I slowly began to realize that thet people who write the most books are in fact people who enjoy writing. Their primary passion is writing. Unfortunately a lot of people who really know what they are talking about and have something important to say often don't like to comminicate it. Likewise many people who like to make videos of themselves talking do it for the the primary reason of making videos of themselves talking; what they talk about or whether its worth listening to seems to be a secondary concern. That's a shame.
@vikidprinciples7 жыл бұрын
Let's put this in context. The sea level is rising between 1-3mm a year. So the sea level is rising but does that mean we should abandon every coastal city and run for the hills. Do we need to destroy the world economy to mitigate a say, 2mm rise per year? So, it is the same with this curve, yes it is shifting to the right, but should you change your entire life for possibly (and most probably) an imperceptible change that will take centuries to have any meaningful effect?
@Elena-qj5tx7 жыл бұрын
I love that this is the same channel where a #1 new York times best selling author put sharpie on his face for sharpie face question tuesday
@1001-z9e7 жыл бұрын
Yeah the earth is warming. Its been warming since the last Ice age. The question is, is it man made or not. But even if some warming (or most warming) is man made then the question becomes 'is the warming catastrophic, benign or beneficial." For the past thousand years the warming has been beneficial and mankind has flourished in the Earth Warming temperatures. In fact, every time the warming has regressed (the mini-ice age) {Europe} the population decreased dramatically and people starved to death. When the temperature rises more farm land is created and people (China, India) flourish. Not saying this trend will continue, just want the debate (especially on the other side) to be taken seriously.
@colsoncustoms89947 жыл бұрын
There should also be a way to quantify and track the total amount of energy from the storms. If one storm is 10X the size of another storm, that is relevant and should be factored in.
@narata15417 жыл бұрын
Did he just call me "John?" LOL, no worries as I understand John is a common name and it probably represents all of us. Anyways, I love this video! More people, Johns and Janettes, should know about this! :-)
@coeynchoi7 жыл бұрын
Thank you for being so informative, I truly appreciate it