We've Calculated The Exact Age UFC Fighters Decline....

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In today's video, we do a full statistical breakdown on when UFC champions and fighters in general begin to start losing. The numbers don't lie, there is an exact number and we'll tell you how we've arrived at it. Do you think this affects Alexander Volkanovski ahead of his return title defense against Ilia Topuria?
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Twitter: / onpointmma
Tommy's: / tommytoehold
Luke's Twitter: / cooltome_
#ufc #mma #mmaonpoint

[@TommyToeHold]

Guys, this is not some Volk hate piece lol. I love Volk. Have always loved Volk. I think he's going to beat Topuria. I was just pointing out historically how it's been. It doesn't actually mean that Volk specifically has a 32% of winning next week. It means historically that's been the outcome with that age gap over 33.

[@rleal12317]

Any chance you can share your dataset?

[@michaelmarr9731]

Hey man, I would love to see your books. Your math was sounding about right so I was hoping that with your books I can run even more tests. To answer, maybe some more stupid questions, like maybe run a z test too.

[@brokenfacedclown1045]

Your just a volk hater an a islam bummer

[@carmike7671]

Be cool to see a list of Oldest champs in every division tried finding something online but only heavyweights and light heavy pops up hard to find lighter weights or first UFC champs from their country

[@killings7761]

@@rleal12317 i second the request :) and i couldve probably saved Tommy some time here, i actually have a mysql database with all fights up to about ufc 275 and a corresponding one with all fighters that fought in those events including date of birth and more infos. i assume the parser i built back then wont work anymore but i could share an excel csv export if anyone wants it. the data is just formatted slightly weird since i never intended to share it so having Tommys sheet would be easier.

[@lupe103344522]

Damn this aged well

[@RedForLife68]

Came back to this video after the fight. Before the fight I could see that path to victory for Topuria. But I still saw Volk winning the fight. Father Time catches up with even the best of them.

[@swifty123]

UFCs theme song is “face the pain” because that’s something that as a fan you will have to go through

[@mickeyburnsmusic]

That song is almost too old to win a belt

[@zenmorte2793]

This sport takes your soul but they can take it I dont mind

[@lowlowseesee]

only if you dont have a life lol. im unphased. too busy learning and grappling

[@RandoManFPV]

​You mean if you just dont care lol lots of people do care tho. Shitting on deep fans is goofy af​@@lowlowseesee

[@canadienranger]

the stats at the beginning really do emphasize the dominance of GSP, Silva, Jones, etc. Crazy longevity.

[@bioman1295]

Silvia’s is actually crazy because he was still dominating everyone up until he was 38 Like a solid 4 years after the general age of decline

[@goat7728]

GSP got his Title shot after 2 wins in UFC and he retired at the age of 31

[@Xxjoseph1029xX]

​@@bioman1295roids

[@paganminster745]

@@goat7728He retired at 37, not 31.

[@Justin-jg2hi]

The most frustrating thing is, between the 3 of them, is, from jones’ debut, since he debuted last, and going through GSP’s last fight in 217, GSP had 10 fights from late 2008-2017. Anderson had had 15 from late 2008-2017. Jones had 18. 10 of those happened from August 2008-December 2011, where he was extremely active, including 4 fights in 2011 where he went virtually untouched. However as he got later in his career, he had larger gaps between fights, where Anderson and GSP didn’t really have that during their reign, which I think massively benefited him giving him increased recovery time. Had he stayed active the whole time, who knows if he would have continued to win, or even still been around. Perhaps his lab supplies have helped his longevity, but we’ll never know. All I know is, the era of dominance that reigned over the UFC from 2007-2016, is over, and there will never be a time like that again

[@downz6703]

I am a data science engineer and I have a pretty good data analysis skillset. Also I have a profound interest in MMA. Would love to sit and chat with you come up with more insights into the sport

[@dlb4988]

I’m a Data scientist working as a data engineer and have always wanted to make a mma stats KZbin too

[@ronswanson1410]

You should both read the book fightenomics, gives a great starting point for the information you are desiring. I’m of a similar background and also bet on this sport as a side gig.

[@samihalabieh]

im a data science undergrad student doing a research project on TES diagnosis in MMA. There is a data set on kaggle with every fight recorded in the UFC that you can turn into a dataframe using pandas

[@dlb4988]

@@samihalabieh oh yeah definitely know the data is there and I feel I’ve got the skills. It’s just taking that jump and actually doing it

[@dlb4988]

@@ronswanson1410 I’m using verdictmma to hone my craft before I start betting as a side gig. I find it difficult to leave the bias at the door when predicting fights. Slowly getting better though

[@stevenbleich1390]

This is data analytics porn

[@MindGameArcade]

For a high schooler maybe

[@302QuestSwap]

@@MindGameArcadeno, for a UFC fan who likes analytics. Don’t be silly

[@Charple]

@@302QuestSwapright 😂 dudes probably 20

[@percules94]

@@MindGameArcadeyou wanna be special so bad

[@DrewsAccount]

@@percules94 nah this is definitely high school level statistics. Full disclosure I love the channel and even this video but this definitely isn’t high level statistics. TTH doesn’t even pronounce chi right 😂

[@ninjakiller160]

I love every one of these in depth analytics videos that Tommy does. Get a random thought, do weeks of data crunching, make video

[@roachmancam9012]

Lmao at the Colby 7 Layers meme 😂😂😂

[@ActAccordinglyNow]

colby alwasy fumbles the win when he fumbles the presser. lol.

[@MK-dx2dt]

the reason luke's stat focuses on the lower weights is because older age plays a bigger negative factor in those divisions. so it woulda been nice to show more new stats for just those weight classes as well compared to the heavier ones. still a great job and maybe i actually missed you showing more of those stats lmao i just remember maybe one graph

[@atomicpunk2360]

Probs because one of the last things to go in terms of your body declining is strength, while speed is one of the first, and with heavyweights being bigger and slower while flyweights are speedy, it makes sense that the smaller the weight class, the more age plays a factor.

[@thenostalgiabusiness]

10:22 is a test, isn’t it? To see which ones of us old farts would recognize the screaming zombie coffee ad?

[@ralfydosnachos410]

That came from an ad?? I remember being a kid and someone showing me a "funny" video only to empty my bowels straight after😂

[@evanwilder55]

I turned my phone away 🤣 too early in the morning for that shit

[@NickST1192]

I was ready for it. Seen this shit too many times. My whole body tightened waiting for that jump scare

[@peps7724]

I covered my eyes like a bitch

[@Menstral]

As a statistician, I say congratulations on your great work. If you have done your data aggregation correctly, now you should be able to answer 100 other questions, and leverage all the time in took to get the UFC data in some actionable format.

[@TommyToeHold]

Huge compliment, thank you so much! Excited to hopefully use the data for other work yes!

[@Kickademics]

Welp there you have it 😂

[@RomaroBrandon]

There's a small group of people who do and say things on the Internet that nobody ask them to, then post the information they gathered in a helpful, relatable and entertaining way. TommyToeHold is one of those people and I just want to say thank you Tommy, you are a great person and I you should I think you're one of three people who should be protected at all cause.

[@hithere2426]

who's the other two?

[@mikhails2039]

This is a lot of hard work. Really appreciate you putting these numbers together.

[@Kealahao]

Great video, appreciate the research and it seemed like it was a ton of fun to do.

[@mindful_minipods]

Data. Now you got me.

[@patricknez7258]

I have been wondering about this topic a lot. Awesome work and vid! Well done! Thank you for info and data 🔥

[@MeehalMyers]

This sort of stuff is incredible to see. Great job!

[@milesgreene]

This was an incredible video. From the numbers and stats to the entertaining way it's edited, you guys really outdid yourselves. It must have taken a lot of research and work. You should take advantage of it more and create more videos about this sort of statistics! Congratulations!

[@ICOHN_]

Loved this!! It’s been great seeing this channel grow over the years

[@hardikbajaj8704]

Max - 32 Gaethje - 35

[@rosalind1635]

Who you got? I'd put the house on Gaethje if I had one.

[@rosalind1635]

Love Max though. Just think Gaethje is too big, too wild and too strong for him. Also I assume better grappling.

[@Twatman_21]

​@@rosalind1635 Gaethie has better wrestling but not grappling. To this day I'm still shocked that Max subbed Cub Swanson.

[@NinoZGB]

well its not a title fight, so dont know whats ur point..?

[@user-by6eb6zo7g]

True, but Max has a better reach in this​. We all know Justin is not 5'11 @rosalind1635

[@MiKoPoetry]

I absolutely love these stat deep dives. An original idea and really interesting. The insane effort is noticed and appreciated 🤟💜

[@shiftwrenchrepeat]

So much work went into this RESPECT

[@monseymoments]

Tommy, your hard work is tremendous and appreciated by us all. Seriously, thank you for this. You’re the man

[@hedonistic_ambition9060]

Thanks for putting together all this for a quick summarization your doing gods work mate

[@outlawpat8038]

Love these types of videos. Great job. Appreciated

[@Jackbennett01]

I appreciate the grind you went through to get this one done 🙏 dope video

[@Daland9]

Great video! Thanks for putting in the work!!

[@CheechElMexicano]

Thank you for taking the time to do all this data. 🙏🏾

[@TheBigDizz]

Love how in back to back days you guys post the anecdotal conversation and the data-driven think piece and they're both wonderful. Keep up the excellent work!

[@Dotaitos92]

Your videos are amazing one of my favorite from mma on point

[@tylerbuchanantb]

Great work on this! Very very interesting. I’d love to get my hands on this data to run through weight classes, outliers, KO decline rates, and much more. Keep it up!

[@iamjacquesbarjon]

Very impressive, video. Well done, fellas.

[@craigpiercer79]

Always entertaining Tommy❤

[@owlmananthropomorphic9418]

Thanks, informative and enjoyable!

[@daltonhaas7599]

This was absolutely a great video. Keep it up guys. Love the content.

[@allistertenpenny8746]

The white car jump scare video 😂😂😂

[@Guest3540]

Hair on my neck stood up as soon as I saw that damn car 😅

[@302QuestSwap]

I was wondering how many people would recognize it lol. That means we’re old 😂

[@i5C0R3Pi0N]

And I had headphones on, so I was like "yeah, let me take my headphones off before that one moment happens", lol...

[@vexobenovex]

Thanks! Great video!

[@WS-bk7uu]

Thank you, that was an impressive deep dive into the stats! 🙏🏻

[@isaiahwilliams1253]

Thanks for all the work you put into this video!

[@pabloqp7929]

underrated data crunching, good job!!!

[@oosmosmoo]

Very cool. Thanks for crunching the numbers!

[@pieguy279]

Crazy amount of work for this one, great video !

[@charliericker274]

These stat dive videos are some of the best you guys make.

[@Dizzylittlelord]

Fantastic video as always. Also how curious would it be to see the likelihood of whoever lands a significant strike first wins

[@diegolycke9355]

An amazing request! Now you've got me curious as well...

[@Chris-ul1nw]

What a great job done by you Tommy !!!

[@docholliday4537]

This is an insane about of work. We appreciate you, Tommy

[@CornerStoreDrums]

Oh let’s GO!! MMA On Point = Top Shelf! 💯

[@christopherbenton4643]

My favorite piece you've done! Excellent work!

[@mylesmantripp7911]

I loved this! data crunches are aamazing!

[@TheAllthegoodstuff]

Fkn great video. Well played, sir. Thanks for ur hard work

[@nathanbensler3617]

Love these stats videos 🔥

[@Cainb23]

these are the best videos on this channel by far. i feel like this one video pushes the sport ahead alot. we need stats like this considering literally all other sports have them already.

[@johnathanrucker6275]

Thanks for this video. This was dope

[@micahmason6328]

Thanks for doing the research. I’ve been interested in this topic for awhile. I’d enjoy seeing even more of the data. Particularly the ages for each individual weight class. Cheers boys, Micah

[@greenmedic88]

That was a lot of data sets to sort through; appreciate the effort.

[@bransen2099]

My god let us appreciate this man, thank you Tommy these days pieces are my favorite on the channel

[@joelatkinson2037]

I appreciate all the time and research you guys do for these

[@kevindonjuan1996]

Amazing work

[@SenorGassen]

Love it. Also, makes sense heuristically, so it’s interesting to see how the numbers match up.

[@SergioR00]

Excellent video, this is the best MMA channel on KZbin

[@Mikeg28]

Don't you think the numbers are slightly skewed? When you are young and coming up, you are facing cans. But when you are older you have reached the peak of your career and are facing the top level fighters you have faced. So you are not necessarily a worse fighter past 34. Its just that you lose more relative to the competition.

[@kellylingus]

Look at all those Hall of Famers on your channel. Wow! Nice work as always

[@jormantommy4504]

Amazing video ! Amazing work wow 💪🏻

[@Induna123]

When Khabib talked about Makhachev reaching his peak 31 I figured it would be around 33/34 when fighters declined, especially when we saw Usman, Valentina and Izzy lose. Makes Colby's words seem even more hollow when he talks about being at his peak at 35 in his recent interview. This is why Leon needs to be more active while he's at the top, don't waste these precious years sitting out waiting...

[@kantbtamed1032]

Thanks for doing the research

[@lordeel4737]

Man, Tommy's Analytics of Data has always amazed me. Keep up the good work my friend!

[@JamieCoville]

Great Video, only thing I would have loved to have seen is how the numbers break down per weight class. It is assumed that Heavyweights do better later in their career as power is the last thing to go and flyweights younger because speed is the first thing to go.

[@jeanborrero]

beautiful video champ

[@Billybobble1]

I really appreciate the effort involved for this, really interesting, but one thing I think with data analysis is mostly, it tells you what you already know, with the freak caveats like Couture et. al. My takeaway from this, is aging does make you worse at the sport, but I believe it is due to the hunger, desire, passion etc. fading as you get older and feel you have less to prove, which silently prevents you from being your best. Just my two cents, great video Tommy and team 👍

[@petuniapaul758]

Yo, I just wanted to say I’m starting to love these pieces more than the Top 10 lists so if you guys are able, I’d wanna see so much more of stuff like this

[@brendanmurphy2888]

i respect the effort you put in thank you very much

[@iamharishchand]

This is some good quality information about MMA. MMA on Point is revolutionising the way MMA is viewed. Thank you

[@thekingsofwillowbrook8182]

Love these videos Tommy.

[@junior_johnson_racing]

Great video. Id love to see that win rate with age by each division. Idea for another stat video the worst judge. Idk how u do it.

[@maximusDAbiker]

The moment I saw this title, I wanted to see your data! The manual data entry alone warrants further appreciation. I do stuff like this for video games for fun and I’d love to see your workbook!

[@scottmescudi3423]

This is honestly incredible, I think nobody did a better video on the subject.

[@Dampney_]

This video is exactly why i subscribed

[@robertstatie6574]

This is some good info ,thanks

[@bizz2626]

plz more stats videos that was epic

[@vxrtom]

Fair play to running all that data, that's real commitment

[@JohnnyScumbagg]

I’m born the same year as Volk. We’re 35. Amanda Nunes, McGregor, Gaethje, Khabib, Valentina and Belal are all born the same year. We old now 😔

[@D10medes]

Great video guys! Very interesting.

[@dubssalamander]

These are my favourite videos!!! TOMMY THE GOAT

[@MhmElias]

Aye massive W it could help with health for fighters

[@jasonberan930]

Tommy, great video. One factor I would have like to see discussed (and super mathed out) would have been fighters ages at their debuts on the regionals and at what year they declined. Also compared to their age at their ufc debuts and the decline.

[@affa6265]

Respect man, you can tell Tommy puts a lot of effort into his videos and really cares about making original content

[@SuccessForeverAstrology]

I'm not even close to finishing this video yet ... But thank you for doing this 👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿

[@rifanifauzi3861]

I'm currently working on statistical analysis for my thesis. I know your pain bro 😂, respect!

[@joshstock5841]

To have gone through over seven thousand fights, shows a level of dedication to your channel that I will use to watch every video you upload, I only found you a few months ago but I’ve watched every upload everyday…

[@Skooby59]

Love these stats based vids

[@GreenManaYo]

very well done vid

[@J-yu9cf]

Tremendous job. And thank you for collecting and sharing the data. Is it possible to have a look to the data collected?

[@gcoffey223]

As a person with a few statistic classes, I appreciate your work and all those involved

[@Y_Yx_x]

its cringe that an mma channel owner is trying to flex their stat module they studied. CRINGE

[@user-rs1iq3kt6l]

Mixing all the weight classes makes it harder to extrapolate from

[@piipoovv6267]

I’m not 1 to like videos but goddamn for the amount of work you did i wish i could like it more than once.

[@Bhutakin]

Cool video. Also, on the plus side, can use this data in the future.

[@bandalavage]

Interesting research that gives us a quantitative POV. Good for us that we have qualitative data to justify the exceptions and show a way to increase the performance of the fighters.

[@jonathanclark9904]

great video nice info

[@gsp_admirador]

Really great analysis.