Soft Landing? Hardly. Expect A Recession & Bear Market Return By Fall 2023 | Jesse Felder

[@Wealthion]

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[@issenvan1050]

Why don’t you employ timestamps, Adam?

[@issenvan1050]

You should re-interview Hanke.

[@isaiahsaldivar2379]

The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.

[@hillaryflinch2334]

Find stocks with market-beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market for a long term. For a successful long-term strategy I recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financial advisor.

[@lathamwilfred1181]

Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.

[@kathiewest5842]

@@lathamwilfred1181 )How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.

[@lathamwilfred1181]

@@kathiewest5842 My advisor is “Isabel Linda Dueri” You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.

[@yolandagriffin2030]

@@lathamwilfred1181 I just looked up Isabel online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call.

[@aguywhohikes1271]

Once again you’ve brought a tremendously thoughtful and analytical mind to your show - thanks to you both.

[@Kukaboora]

This discussion makes all the senses for me. Invaluable for investors.

[@rocrab]

always a great listen when Jessi is speaking...excellent macro and technical expert

[@Its_RichieRich]

This channel is the most frequent, consistent and high quality financial show on YT. Adam love you and what you’re doing here.

[@erhardtharris8727]

Definitely following this channel over this next year.

[@jameshall3181]

Very good discussion the Jesse today. You guys nailed a lot of topics!!!

[@edwardmihok6718]

Barron’s offers a free service that tells you insider buying and selling for the week. “Barron’s statistics”. It drops every Saturday. Jesse gave me the idea to follow a few months back. A good data point

[@motomanx125x]

How do you sign up?

[@johnlennon232]

Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.

[@alexyoung3126]

There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.

[@kimyoung8414]

I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.

[@lawerencemiller9720]

Mind if I ask you recommend this particular professional you use their service? i have quite a lot of marketing problems.

[@kimyoung8414]

credits to Eileen Ruth Sparks, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up

[@lawerencemiller9720]

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

[@clrodrick]

I like Mr Felder he has got a lot of good knowledge and ability to get to the core of issues. He writes articles too worth reading, and again they are nice and concise only take a few minutes to read

[@shieh.4743]

The last 10 minutes is so important for what the last 40.years and globalization has done to Gen X, Millenials, and now GenZ.

[@Radio280]

An excellent interview and guest, Adam. Congrats 👏

[@myra9495]

Please interview THE MAVERICK OF WALL STREET ,an interesting you tube channel

[@johnmontana4252]

Great interview with a lot of perspectives that I haven't heard in other financial sources! So many good points! THANK YOU!

[@stevensmiddlemass2072]

Yes stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfers in this downtime if you know where to look.

[@estring123]

@@KingDavid-jj7tk financial adviser scammer

[@MrRaitzi]

Only problem is that everyone expects market do this and that. It never usually works that way. Might be flat with no direction for years.

[@p_sg3449]

Everyone doesn't expect the markets to do this. There are many retail investors living in La La Land who think this is the start of a major bull market.

[@jcantonelli1]

​@@p_sg3449That is not the prevailing narrative right now.

[@ReconPro]

I feel like that may mean the market will have a deep crash than even the most of the bears expect, shake out even those that were bearish and make them want the market to go back up! Who knows!

[@Jeff__M]

You’re the man Adam! 🇺🇸👏🎩

[@annKLR]

You are such a good interviewer Adam. Jesse was very interesting too.

[@melapyper2349]

Such an interesting guest, thank you.

[@HS-lb8kv]

Thanks for bringing back Jesse

[@Mike-fx4nu]

I'm laddering Cds. 5% rates for 12 month right now. If inflation rebounds and we head for 6, cds will be going that way in a few months. If something breaks, and we go down to 3% by year end, 5% will likely be giving a real return.

[@whodidit99]

Tbills are paying the same but no state or local tax.

[@gregs6685]

An excellent job looking at the immediate and mid-term future. I like how he stressed a sort of demise in technology, at least its rapid growth in the future. I am hoping that a "matured tech" (whatever that might be) will carry forward growth in the decades ahead.

[@kenyonbissett3512]

Forbes has an interesting video on YT about tech future in AI Chatgpt, only 21 min.

[@mikkimikki5376]

Get in good with your Grandparents.

[@BatmanBoss]

Wealthion 🏆

[@franciscoexpatriado7191]

"The long kiss goodnight" Love it...

[@Tweetogreggieb59]

Good morning Adam & Guest.

[@Tweetogreggieb59]

Adam, your channel is totally awesome because it's always relevant to Current affairs. All that you do, is truly appreciated. You are a real asset to the internet community. Thank you!

[@Tweetogreggieb59]

The highlight is truly appreciated. Thank you!

[@h.b2029]

Excellent. Thanks.

[@dwightwhite6738]

3 month 6 month T bills paying 4.8%. No risk. I am to old to lose my nest egg. Capital preservation is where I am at. I will check in again next year. I need to sleep at night, not gamble or be greedy.

[@jcantonelli1]

I like short-term Treasuries as well right now, but they're not riskless. The main risk is negative real returns, which can be fine for a year or so while "waiting for clarity", but most investors cannot afford to park the majority of their assets in cash equivalents for years.

[@dangood2287]

Do you consider debt ceiling a zero risk? I'm about to buy a ton of UST also but just kinda want to hear a bunch of "yeah don't worry" haha

[@dwightwhite6738]

@@jcantonelli1 I am 70, I would not have done this at 40. The uncertainty of market is a driving force. I am OK if I only get 4% til I die, unless of course unless inflation goes hyper. Everyone has their own goals, situations. To each his own. thanks

[@jcantonelli1]

@@dwightwhite6738 I agree, and it sounds like you made a wise decision! I'm 41, so my situation is different, as you said.

[@JR49300]

Great show 🎉

[@anuragkujur1057]

Good stuff. So crisp & clear. Thank you.

[@PE-TX]

It pays to listen to what Jesse Felder has to say!

[@janevarley8482]

Jesse has been right for a long time now.

[@donkeywhistler]

This one is a twice-listen for me

[@mtpc2015]

19:50 into video.... we had a negative real interest rate environment (i.e., CPI > Fed Funds Rate) from 2009 to 2016.... the key to all of this is getting people back to work (or replace with automation or innovation changes), increasing or maintaining productivity, and keeping wages in line with inflation...

[@benjaminschneider5657]

Another solid interview Adam. You continue to impress with your channel and interviews. Incredibly important knowledge and insight weekly. 🙏

[@halbrooks4654]

This time is different, FEDs pace of rate hikes is unprecedented. Liquidity being sucked out of equity markets into T-bills/ money market accounts for " safe" fixed pct yeilds.

[@jcantonelli1]

You're right about bonds/CDs (which are still yielding negative real returns), but it's always different each time.

[@halbrooks4654]

@@jcantonelli1 REAL YEILDS, has me sidelined, into PMs, Waiting on their upwards price reset, inevitable at the next FED pivot, or some , unforeseen, derivative default / Black Swan event ?

[@feral5404]

i'll believe it when i see it. mostly in cash right now but have a little bit of capital deployed

[@tbergerson]

You should interview Louis-Vincent Gave on Macro

[@Wealthion]

He's coming on in a few weeks!

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Cannot go negative rates? If so inflation goes like Turkey

[@Jesusismykin]

Best show in town 🙌👌

[@machinegunkellyy4396]

Even with the current dip in cryptocurrency, I’m still glad I can smile 😊 back at my portfolio of $105,850 built from my weekly trade, I’m having my fourth withdrawal in 10 business days.

[@fredrickdarlington8820]

I have also been trading with her, the profits are secured and over 100% return on investment directly sent to your wallet or bank.

[@pauldavidson5225]

After watching so many KZbin videos tutorial videos about trading I was still making losses until Mrs Pamela Williams started managing my investments now I make $10,567 weekly. God bless Mrs Pamela She’s been a blessing to my life and family

[@wesleyvirgin2427]

Oh please guys, is there any way I can speak to Mrs Pamela Williams, this sounds so helpful and I would love to join the train 🙏

[@pauldavidson5225]

You can directly communicate with her on telegram through her name

[@pauldavidson5225]

@pamelaGarthfield

[@felicisimomalinao1981]

Please give us opinion about S&P 500 prospects from now on till 2024.

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

20% interest rates on 31 trillion is 6 trillion per year. Voliker 2.0 ain't happening

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

2001 with 7% inflation and massive debt is a WHOLE different animal

[@jaybird7534]

Always just down the road...right?

[@ReconPro]

Hey!

[@RM-cf4pw]

Thanks

[@rhwinner]

I'm so glad I sold into this last rally...😀

[@paul_devos]

18 mins into this one... Jesse has mentioned several times "down the road.." that sort of timeframe does he mean by "down the road..." a few years... 2-5 years... 10+ years down the road. When do the chickens come to roost?

[@marthadressel3856]

Excellent

[@mtpc2015]

at 24:30... the economic system is very complex ... hence there is hysteresis or systematic delay ... that is why when there is a "pivot" in the Fed Funds rates, there will be a delayed effect on the stock market ...

[@miked5106]

A dramatic tightening, but from zero on rates.

[@issenvan1050]

Is FED buying stocks?

[@sueemara9675]

Excellent content! Thank you 🙏🏻

[@RadicallyFRUGAL]

I'm not sure how much road we have left. If either of you get a chance there was a movie in 1971 called VANISHING POINT. At the end of the movie the protagonist drove his car at 150 miles an hour into a roadblock that consisted of two bulldozers. I've been watching these nitwits push this problem down the road making it ever bigger and more expensive and more dangerous since 1985. I think we have a very short distance to the bulldozers

[@thatstheguy07]

That the scary part.

[@LG-tw5vm]

Good show!!

[@markblumhardt]

Why aren’t we talking about the supply side of the equation? Reverse energy policies to lower costs (especially energy), lower taxes, lower regulation and lower government spending. This will increase tax receipts, enable lower interest rates which will increase investment and growth. All of this expands capacity and lowers inflation.

[@felicisimomalinao1981]

We in the tropics are not familiar with the period FALL. Please state the month and year - to be exact.

[@edwardcotter7096]

Sorry no one replied before now. Fall in the northern hemisphere is approximately mid September to the end of November. In the southern hemisphere it would be six months earlier or later. Technically some might say from Sept 21 to Dec 21 would be more exact.

[@trillioncap]

great video; loved it

[@TheWhiteOakHomestead]

Thanks for another great video!

[@Wealthion]

Thank you very much!!

[@socalguy24]

As your guest mentions, GDP is up and a trailing metric; can you please do a deep dive in to what deflation will do to the GDP, whereas inflation inflated away the GDP reduction, deflation will accentuate it.

[@andreaskleffmann7635]

Great insights😄

[@kyleferris9754]

..maybe I'm missing it or he doesn't have one but a Twitter handle in the video description would be helpful. I love following Wealthion interviewee's

[@vm-bz1cd]

Except for CNBC guests, no one is looking at lagging indicators... the "markets", especially the Bond Market is looking PAST both the lagging and the current indicators....at THIS point in Time ALL of the best possible information is captured on Price... Everything else is Speculation...

[@joachimlindback]

USA gave up in September and is in reality adding liquidity since then. The UK guild debacle gave them a real scare.

[@Aphantasic]

This is not the 1970's and 1980's. People think that higher interest rates for long enough (like under Volcker) can "kill" inflation, because inflation eventually came down back then. However, budget deficits, money printing, and debt back then were miniscule compared to now. This time, they may knock inflation down briefly, but as soon as they let up the interest rate pressure, inflation will resume stronger than ever. The underlying causes of inflation are not going away when interest rates go up. And if they try to keep interest rates high forever, the damage to the economy and the exponentially growing government debt burden with those high interest rates will force them to finally surrender. We are in the end game, here. There is no way out. Even these bears seem to be blind to the elephant in the room.

[@jamesgeorge8915]

Thank you Jessie. This talk feels instinctively more informative and reasonable than most.

[@josehawking5293]

Only way you decrease the deficit is through taxation. And it’s not a real debt. The problem with too much discretionary spending is diluting what a dollar can purchase in the short term so long as there are resources and productive capacity to back the dollar up.

[@cheesemaster113]

how do we know this hasn't already been priced in?

[@miked5106]

Fair question.

[@wilburpaulk2371]

Tips are the answer?

[@FuttBukkr]

Intrigued about fundamental index ETF’s seems like most are mutual funds Maybe something to touch on in the future

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this very informative content cheers Frank

[@MikiCab1]

I am having to bite my cheek to every day to keep my fomo down. I am cash and a bit short. I am waiting to go more short once SP500 drops below 3950.

[@thach0x0]

It is so good to watch these .The vast majority of these clips are logical pessimism . Inverted yield curve ,hard landing ,sticky inflation ,downward revision of earnings (home depo recently etc) pivot out of the window . These have been so repetitive pessimism . So why the equity market has been edging up since October 2022? Am begging to be so skeptical with these pessimism. The level of inflation is above the nominal rates which can bring an optimism with the equities ,a new mega trend with the value investing -Russell Napier

[@jarirutanen8762]

Bear market rally

[@issenvan1050]

We do not need a recession. If they grow the money supply by 5-6% a year, you’ll get your 2% next year.

[@thomaskauser8978]

The narrative for months during the GFC was centered around what inning the downturn was entering and about any green shoots on the horizon? CURRENTLY we are going into the bottom of the first inning down $2.3 TRILLION dollars in home team equity? I HEAR the incomplete narrative around the Taylor rule and the guests highest belief in negative rates for longer and wonder if QT is even an after thought? The idea that the bond debacle of 2022 was predicted by the destruction of the mortgage market and the loss of liquidity in the treasury note market has a technical feel? Having lost the need to hedge mortgages with notes? WE ARE BACK TO MARK TO FANTASY ACCOUNTING ANYWAY YOU LOOK AT IT!

[@larrypeltier6802]

Too bad that you couldn’t provide that market data, but made it into a teaser to come back to part 2.

[@nicholasmakaroff9522]

Do you think the reason the market hasn’t bottom or won’t bottom is because of the record amount of retail, and we refuse to sell?

[@paulginsberg6942]

Jesse is a really good guy to listen to. He makes good sense.

[@mattanderson6672]

Such a brilliant interview! Thank you for having Jesse on, really interesting!

[@onefixitman]

Many of us are seeing the things that cause a market crash but the market is still crazy high. When it is going to die? I have a bunch of REIT's I want to buy at a very low rate.

[@tess7798]

Lots of negative comments here, but I continue to learn so much from Adam and his guests. I’m so grateful for this channel.

[@smsfelipe]

Only problem with this thesis is that Powell focus on Core PCE which is at 4.4%, so in his view current rate is already in restrictive territory. All this talk about raising rates for the foreseeable future to unknown higher levels was a possibility last year with inflation at 9%, but now is just nonsense.

[@TheDentist27]

You are incorrect. Inflation just dipped, and is coming back strong. Rates will go above 6%.

[@mtpc2015]

S&P 500 is only about 3% above its February 2020 level when accounting for inflation, which is about 20% from February 2020 to present day. Expect the S&P 500 to return to 20% to 25% below its all time high of 4818 points set in December 2021. Recall it was down about 25% back in October 2022. And it went down about 22% in June 2022. Usually the S&P 500 bottoms within 52 to 100 weeks after its last all time high. Its been about 60 week since its all time high of 4818 points.

[@shimonoami]

We are finally wrapping our heads around the concept of actually making stuff here instead of offshoring. An economy needs both white and blue collar workers to function autonomously otherwise the economy becomes dependent upon external sources of labor.

[@Its_RichieRich]

Adam says “you’re nodding as I’m saying this” and everyone take a shot.

[@CaddieSmooth]

Remember that the Fed is also quietly reducing their balance sheet which amplifies the effects of the rate hikes! They could drop rates but continue QT.

[@chrisraymond2234]

Being hawkish is the INTENTION to raise rates…. Not the fact of raising rates.

[@christopherstewart9874]

Kyocera has three syllables, not four. It isn't kee-oh-serr-ah. It's kyo-seh-rah. Remember the tennis star Bjorn Borg? No one pronounced his name Bee-orn it was pronounced Byorn - one syllable. Same thing.

[@MrSean03839]

Who cares.

[@bast3116]

Truly love this guy thinking. If he's right then crypto is a good buy if it continues to move opposite to the dollar, then gold and sliver would be great buy after about 2 years as you get an inflationary period again.

[@jeremyturner8682]

I was in agreement with him until he came with the bit about the banks. He may want to watch the video about how the FDIC feels about the banking system. The people who think the issues have been solved in the banking system are people who make a lot of money. The derivatives are larger than 07-08 and last I checked Glass Stegall was still repealed and replaced with Dodd Frank, which allows banks to bail you in.

[@josehawking5293]

Their was an actual credit crunch in ‘73 that spurred on the recession. We moved off the gold standard as well partly because of the cost of Vietnam War and the French cashing in their dollars into gold with all the dollars being spent into the South Vietnamese economy plus the discovery of large gold deposits in South Africa and former Soviet Union. Recessions are simply cyclical expansion and contractions of liquidity over time. I can see a recession on the horizon caused by how well companies and corporations deal with their accumulation of private debt over a decade.

[@GamingBear_Q_E_D]

I translated the Chinese curse, and a closer actual translation is: 'May you live in Turbulent times' rather than 'May you live in interesting times' as someone who does not understand the Chinese meaning as well as their translational skills might be.

[@danman1287]

what structural shortage in housing? now i think the guest is not on top of subject ... there r so many investor homes empty right now. there is data backing this up.. most of construction is in multifamily units not SFM

[@AA-gu1vv]

Something systematic has already broken by having lowest interest rates in history and creating historically highest debt in history.

[@michaelfelli7661]

The Taylor Rule has Rates as high as 7.25%. So, I would not be surprised to see 5.5% or 5.75%, all the while with QT running in the background. 500 billion QT ~~ 0.5 % rate hike effect.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Again rates at 4.5 still too low needs to double why this rates are too high is nutssss it was zero 12 years bubbbbbbllleee they really need to go to 9% a depression is better then run away inflation . You can come back from a depression

[@issenvan1050]

How about commodities or crypto?

[@CDBesetsny]

IMO.......P-Metals always good. Mining Royalties are smart. Crypto: ISO20022 tokens only ie: XDC, XLM, XRP etc etc... Short Term Treasuries to keep a lil high risk junk😁

[@issenvan1050]

@@CDBesetsny What are ISO…? I have Dash. & Hut 8.

[@ceusolution1524]

The construction sector as a whole has been "underemployed" for several years. So even though residential construction has taken a solid hit, commercial and industrial and infrastructure construction still has a decent backlog. Also the Amazons, Googles, etc of the world do not hire construction workers to build their buildings, they hire contractors and developers who hire construction workers to build their buildings. So even though the tech sector has been laying off workers, that's not construction workers. The data centers are still being built, but the distribution center construction has slowed considerably.