Why a Ceasefire in Gaza Is Such an Uphill Battle

Public discussions of a ceasefire in the Gaza War have been ramping up over the last couple of weeks, but still no agreement is in place. Why? This video examines the strategic military situation as the problem. Israel has been slowly clearing areas of Gaza. If a long-term ceasefire is implemented, maintaining the euphemistic quarantine over that time will be difficult. It will not completely reset Israel's progress, but it will force Israel to retread some of its effort. As such, Israel must receive substantial concessions to compensate for military problem. This does not make a ceasefire impossible, but it does make it an uphill battle.
0:00 Introduction
0:40 The Current Situation
2:00 Israel's Military Strategy
4:27 The Military Challenge a Ceasefire Creates
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[@seneca983]

1:45 "nor am I an agent of an intelligence organization" That's exactly what an agent would say!

[@casbot71]

"He doth protest too much, methinks."

[@JebacPresretac101]

He isn't an agent, but he sure is paid by them. Takes so d*** only CIA would approve.

[@alex_zetsu]

Both an agent and an armchair analyst would say that.

[@acctsys]

Plausible deniability, right?

[@derrekvanee4567]

*no one saw this. Now, will thst be tea or tea?*

[@eyasjas8098]

William Spaniel:"What we have learned from this channel..." Everyone: lines, draw lines 😂😂😂

[@EstebanVicenzi]

It does work... as a way to focus.

[@JuddKramer]

All I can think of is what Christopher Hitchens wrote years ago: "I eventually came to appreciate a feature of the situation that has helped me understand similar obduracy in Lebanon, Gaza, Cyprus, and others. The local leaderships generated by the "troubles" in those places do not want there to be a solution. A solution would mean that they were no longer deferred to by visiting mediators, no longer invited to ritzy high-profile international conferences, no longer treated with deference by the mass media, and no longer able to make a second living by smuggling and protection-racketeering. And when it is over, far too many of the racketeers became profiteers of the 'peace process' as well."

[@iotaje1]

Same is true in Israel. A previous government had made plans for peace with the Secular palestinian Authority, and the current government sabotaged it on purpose. The current government also funded Hamas early on, supported colonisation efforts in the West bank, ignore the warnings for the October 7th attacks and impaired the army's ability with it's corruption and mismanagement. Netanyahu wants to have a war so that he can get away with ethnic cleansing and colonisation. Hamas wants there to be a war because they are fascists, war is their purpose. In a way they help one another domestically.

[@TheResilient5689]

I didn’t agree with Hitchens on a fair amount of things (as much as I generally liked the guy), but this point definitely wasn’t one of them because he was right on the money there.

[@J-tu3hw]

All those caring and wonderful and open-minded doctors and lawyers could be refugees and help Europe with its problems - get a ceasefire asap!

[@NateTheGnat]

From the guy who supported the war in Iraq, that’s kind of an ironic thing to say.

[@diegonatan6301]

It is also a perfect description of the Israeli Government today, I mean if the war ends now Israel will probably start questioning, "Wait! Why we were so weak and unprepared around Gaza?"...

[@Quetzietse]

I think the much simpler explanation is that the people who want a ceasefire are not the people that have power in that area, and the people that have power in that area do not want a ceasefire.

[@technokicksyourass]

Yeah, why on earth would Israel want a ceasefire? They are winning the war, and they are on the clock. There is no way the USA abandons Israel in any meaningful way. There is too much at stake in the bigger strategic picture.

[@pax6833]

Correct. We can't force a permanent ceasefire if neither side wants to stop fighting. It feels like too many foreign observers are way too entitled, thinking they can just impose a ceasefire.

[@sajuente8235]

Hamas also want ceasefire as there is thousands of terrorists who wan to escape from Palestine and its possible as long as you have few thousand of dolars.

[@kingace6186]

Neither do Netanyahu's Government nor Hamas and Iran want a ceasefire. But what is crucial is forcing them to get over their wants. That's where the lines on maps come in.

[@gnomad3143]

yup :C

[@TailRecursion]

Your ability to crank these videos out so quickly and maintaining the quality across all of them is nuts, always looking forward to another!

[@bigpattyboy36]

Mr. Spaniel: Keep up the good work. Always feel a bit more well informed after watching these - if for nothing else to keep things in a well grounded perspective. Thank you sir !

[@minecraftone4770]

im very happy to finaly see a video and comment section that isnt just free isrial or palistine the video is actualy breaking the conflict down not advocating for a side and the comment section is actualy having inteligent conversations and adding insight

[@ToabyToastbrot]

Just a matter of time until both will come and flood this comment section.

[@goese868]

wtf is free israel?

[@ymichel7593]

@@goese868Maybe free it from the idiots that are currently ruling the country and helped create this awful, bloody mess.

[@gnomad3143]

@@ymichel7593TRUE

[@JZTechEngineering]

@@ymichel7593 No, it's generally the people who think that any israeli action is justified, including increasing settlements.

[@FLAGMACHINE11]

I think I found this channel on accident, but my god do I love your stuff! Refreshing perspectives

[@Raven-Algiz]

Always appreciate your perspective..

[@bencesipos1142]

It is always such a pleasure to see a new video out!

[@mohammadhossain7336]

Like your work man! People like you need more promotion in this troubled time. The conflict of modern days has become a struggle against ignorance

[@WhyDoThat]

We apply strategy but really was there any strategic goals behind Oct 7th?

[@Mfhollander2]

Its only logical if you are a Islamist, not logical to secular logic.

[@youssefsammouh501]

Yes of course.... go back to older videos on this channel

[@zhop951]

The strategic goal was probably to prevent normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as a form of advertisement for their group, as was previously talked about on this channel.

[@segalliongaming8925]

Hamas’ goals for Oct 7th were strictly political, not strategic.

[@SEAZNDragon]

I think there is a legitimate question of how much Hamas expected in an Israeli response for October 7. They must have figured Israel would attack but not to this degree for so long.

[@Khal_Rheg0]

Thank you!

[@mu.xiaoyang]

Great video! However it's too short. I enjoy those 15/20 mn long videos and I hope they remain the most common lenght of your videos in the future. (I liked the video of course, you're a big inspiration for me as a IR student)

[@kennethmartin1300]

That's a good point. These short ones are kind of rare, it ended a little too quickly.

[@AdeptAnalytic]

Have a good weekend Will. I love your videos

[@kennethmartin1300]

Dittoes!

[@khrttartrahht4188]

It's an uphill battle because Hamas wants to stay in power and won't agree to a ceasefire that doesn't include that. Israel, on the other hand, won't agree to a ceasefire that doesn't include Hamas in custody. See how that works? No ceasefire.

[@mrfarax4944]

Hamas is an idea brought about by oppression you can take Hamas out and the resistance will continue to exist see how that works. It's similar to the Warsaw uprising history being ironic I guess

[@teaser6089]

That sounds... Familiar!!! Lines on map, likes on map!!

[@MrVideoVero]

Israel wants Hamas to stay in power, too. That's why they paid them $30 Million a month to act as prison guards.

[@himynameisben95]

it's not about Hamas, that's just a bullshit pretext for Palestinian genocide

[@abdallahalbaiti3252]

That’s not whats happening here. First of all Hamas and other Palestinian groups, including Fatah, are currently working on forming a unity government to act as a representative for the Palestinians and as an interim government until future elections happen if a state is created. Hamas have said that they don’t wish to rule over the Palestinians and that they want the Palestinians to decide their leader instead of a foreign government deciding. 2nd of all. I don’t like how this video isn’t talking about the politics in Israel. Netanyahu doesn’t want the war to end, cus if it does he’s out of power and his trial for corruption will happen.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

I love the idea of you releasing shorter videos (more quickly) on important topics of a current event that doesn’t need 15-25 min of in depth discussion. Of course, in addition to your normal 15+min video. Some Australian yountuber would say your 15-25 min videos are already very short videos 😂

[@SEAZNDragon]

Still shocks me how Perun went from a small gaming channel to amassing a huge following doing hour long war economics powerpoints.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

@@SEAZNDragon similar for William S original videos but yeah, William does what is typically more digestible while Perun is doing university power point lectures and was able to get a big following from that!

[@jonathanodude6660]

1:41 Hey, I've been there! Isn't that the public library in Melbourne?

[@alex_zetsu]

2:08 I find it funny that about 75% of the IDF's operations were essentially a right to left targeted elimination (or semi targeted given the collateral damage) advancing which just makes explaining things so much easier.

[@ems4884]

I don't think I can understand why the general public doesn't realize that the "semi-targeted" aspect of Israel's bombing of Gaza is because of the underground tunnel network which runs between residential buildings, schools, mosques and even a graveyard. It's so obvious to me. I guess the propaganda effect is more powerful than I thought.

[@NNN261]

also I think they write text right to left in that country, so it's psychologically "convenient" way to go as well

[@eyalamit5120]

​@@NNN261 We do. The official languages of Israel are Hebrew and Arabic. Both are written right to left.

[@fredrikhelland8194]

Given that western doctrine for taking a city has typically been siege or total demolition, we cannot exactly blame the targeting…

[@OlssonDaniel]

It was a good video explaining the situation in Gaza-Israel. But did I "like" it? No, it was quite depressing. But I knew what I came for and I am more enlightened.

[@kennethmartin1300]

Still hit 'LIKE', though. I finally decided that 'like' button really means 'thorough, helpful, well-produced, and good presentation!'👍 (even if bad news)

[@OlssonDaniel]

I agree. @@kennethmartin1300

[@Ross6758]

Thanks

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@BuddhaAfterDark]

5 minutes! I was just getting into it :D

[@gonzolong144]

*Video Recommendation* I'd love to hear your take on the book Foundation of Geopolitics, as it seems to be Putin's playbook in disrupting the west. Love the channel! Thanks for all the work you put into it!

[@stevenmempa7415]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Very generous, thank you!

[@lrmry]

Can inducements and pressure not also be applied to Hamas?

[@suckassmork2972]

Probably. Remove the need for resistance and there's no resistance.

[@lrmry]

@@suckassmork2972 I meant to the political leaders in Gaza. Hamas resists the existence of anyone who’s not committed to the Jihad- so removing the cause of the resistance is not really an option here.

[@jer2689]

Correct me if I'm wronf but wouldn't a ceasefire just prolonge the inevitable?

[@UncleJoeLITE]

Thank-you from Australia. Hard to see anything good here.

[@DifficultNerd]

Well, we got a little bit of the crimea map with a few lines on it. I guess that will scratch the lines-on-maps itch for a bit :) But seriously - thanks for taking a sober look at some of the dynamics at play. I think it's worth noting that Hamas doesn't really want a ceasefire either - their conditions have been truly unreasonable.

[@Dreadnaught151]

Literally eye popping.

[@JZTechEngineering]

I hope the comments are civil and orderly

[@ymichel7593]

So far, they mostly are. Quite surprising, the comment section of every video about Gaza is a war zone in itself.

[@missnobody6151]

What is the front, if not a line on a map ?! 🧐

[@stevencolor3389]

One factor that will make it harder to secure a ceasefire is that one of the sides involved has stated publicly their endgoal is the extermination of the other, hamas had broadcast on tv that was there endgoal to exterminate Israelis. That is not a territorial dispute that some form of compromise can be made.

[@Humanaut.]

I like that the tone of the narration has become softer (for the most part). The overly harsh pronounced letters at the end of words did bother me.

[@Godsavethecrumpets]

This video didn't really say much

[@Sombody123]

Really could have condensed it into a KZbin Shorts video...

[@mrfarax4944]

My exact sentiment am quite disappointed

[@zaper2904]

Cause there isn't really much to say the ceasefire isn't going to happen because Israel will only accept a Hamas surrender and Hamas has not intentions of surrendering (despite basically being on their last legs).

[@TheHighlanderprime]

It said a lot to me.

[@yummydirtproductions]

It also takes two to tango, Hamas is also opposed to a ceasefire under any reasonable terms that aren’t just “Israel Surrenders”

[@IanKjos]

What? No book plug? Are you feeling well, sir?

[@TheRahimpur]

There is also hamas. What are their stratigic concerns.

[@teoengchin]

Doesn't the "hundreds of kilometres of tunnels" defeat your logic?

[@wrog268]

What math courses have you done? (Because I am starting my bs applied maths degree next year)

[@linkly9272]

If I remember correctly, he did take 'Applied Lines on Maps I' and 'Applied Lines on Maps II'

[@teaser6089]

​@@linkly9272lmao

[@TheHighlanderprime]

The troll party is the floor beneath this one.

[@technokicksyourass]

He wrote a book on game theory.

[@chairforce0ne]

Stats

[@ShotKalTank]

Aw, I expected a longer video about this. As your usual 20minute-ish.

[@Eleolius]

Simple: Hamas hasn't surrendered to justice and hasn't returned all hostages and handed over all their weapons and leadership for trial.

[@phatbman]

Nobody who is in favor of a ceasefire can adequately explain to me how exactly you are able to negotiate one with two parties that are not willing to make concessions for a ceasefire. Also how do you negotiate with terrorists?

[@themartianway]

Stop oppressing a people that have no one to turn to but terrorists for help?

[@themartianway]

By that I mean stop oppressing people in Gaza in general. It would make it much harder for terrorists to find any sympathy from the general populace.

[@willpickering5829]

If we give Hitler Czechoslovakia he’ll calm down and his fascism will lose support. Oh wait…

[@JZTechEngineering]

@@themartianway then don't elect terrorists when you are trying to normalize relations.

[@Liad138]

​@@themartianwaywhy its so haed for you to understand that theyvare getting "opressed" because they are terrorist . Not everyone has the logic a western have. They are terrorist by choice

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

I think you should have preface this with the base assumption rooting out Hamas is possible, or is the actual goal, an assumption I think is unsafe. However, the goal and reality need not align, they only need to be believed to be possible. If this belief holds, your analysis is correct, if we set aside the many non-military motives. I see it as another demonstration of bargaining mismatch with wildly mis-priced, misallocated costs and actors that have no incentive for a ceasefire no matter where the line on map is.

[@banto1]

A ceasefire needs to be benefit both sides to be agreed to, or forced upon the parties by outside powers. An agreed ceasefire only benefits Hamas, who gets to survive and attack again. Israel gets nothing, unless the ceasefire include the release of ALL the hostages. Since there is no outside party that has leverage on BOTH sides, there isn't anyone who can force a mutual ceasefire. The sad reality is Sinwar is stalling on the ceasefire, since every day that goes by, Israel's standing in the west diminishes, which is one of his most important war aims.

[@daraghokane4236]

Hamas wanted that on October 8th an exchange of Prisoners' was the plan

[@pogadol]

@@daraghokane4236 and later the hostage to prisoner deal came into action, until hamas broke it

[@daraghokane4236]

@@pogadol You mean Isreai shot three hostages waving a white flag then laughed at them.

[@funkythelarper1956]

@@pogadol Provide a source of Hamas breaking it, pretty sure Hamas abided the ceasefire and publicly said "We will attack again if the IDF breaks the ceasefire."

[@subzebradz7896]

The problem is how The idf is handling the situation, dozen warcrimes are being committed , and a ceasefire, although it may benefit hamas, must applied to reduce innocent casualties

[@Shoelessjoe78]

I honestly think Hamas thought Iran would come in after with the folding chair. Turns out their "brothers" were just using them as the punk.

[@SEAZNDragon]

I think the Houthis may have something to do with that.

[@aymenyahyaoui1771]

No they did that to stop the nor.alization process at still the movement will surviveafter it was formed under the occupation

[@gaz4553]

Hamas has the most surprised pikachu face.

[@Lestibournes]

Also the other side doesn't want a ceasefire. They want a to broaden the conflict by getting more regions, people, and organizations involved while blaming Israel so that they can avoid defeat or peace while taking pressure off of themselves.

[@nathanlevesque7812]

De facto governor? Hamas is the government. Who else would it be?

[@daraghokane4236]

Israei Gaza is part of Israel controled by Isreai fully

[@user-jx4tq2dz7q]

I think IDF would not agree to any ceasefire , they are there to stop any Oct 7 attack in the future. IDF Agreeing to ceasefire is allowing hamas to repeat oct 7. IDF is really out for blood here

[@bidoof4938]

Just like with the no fly zone over Ukraine… People have their hearts in the right place but with completely idiotic solutions. No ceasefire but at least let more food, water and medicine into the strip

[@maxerd]

Seeing as you just did an update on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and Gaza, I have 4 video ideas. A similar status report and brief "how we got here" on Taiwan, South Korea and Yemen. And to top it off, an analysis of the current actual risk of WW3 breaking out and/ or nuclear weapons being used.

[@stupidburp]

The locations of forces is relevant and critical for understanding the situation. Humanitarian aid is getting into Gaza in volume but it is not being distributed effectively because Hamas steals most of it and attacks aid convoys as they travel through Gaza. Violent mobs also have attacked aid convoys, probably prompted and coordinated by Hamas due to their sudden presence in unexpected locations with few civilians nearby. Hamas is weaponizing civilians to attack aid against the interests of the civilians. Since they are not spotted from the air, these mobs are likely using Hanas tunnel networks to travel to planned ambush points. This is hybrid warfare that is not getting much attention in the media.

[@mohamedhosh3003]

Well , i guess your user name says everything i need to know about you.

[@funkythelarper1956]

Kirby according to AJ and other sources in his speech: "We haven't seen any evidence of Hamas stealing any humanitarian aid." Can you repeat that again.

[@GojiMet86]

The effectiveness of the quarantine, and the risks of retreading and resetting (and by proxy the "hydra" problem: get rid of current Hamas but then be met in the future by more kids-who-were-victims-turned-new-Hamas-recruits), would also depends on how much "institutional" knowledge is actually lost by Hamas (and to an extent the Palestinian population), how quickly it can recover, and whether or not any other group steps in. It's definitely going to take Hamas much longer to rebound than in years past, and I don't exactly see the PLO or the other factions taking charge here. I also do wonder whether Israel considers it worthwhile to also go after, and just "disappear", the Hamas leadership residing in Qatar.

[@technokicksyourass]

The "hydra" problem is just a theory, and not a good one really. There was no "hydra" problem in Japan or Germany, and they were bombed much much harder. There is no reason to believe an occupation and a "marshal plan" won't solve this problem just like it did throughout basically all of history.

[@billy4072]

Respect Ramadan….? like they “respect” and are ..”tolerant” of other religions… yeh. They need treating like they treat other folk… with a mailed fist .

[@h-go4fk]

They dont even respect the non white jews there

[@ajaxjs]

The Gaza Health Ministry, which is run by Hamas, includes Hamas' own casualties in the totals, as they've said so themselves.

[@manubishe]

0:45 October 7th massacre. 1400 killed in a day, without bombs, of the mostly civilian population,

[@manofwar2354]

Civilian ? Each israeli serve in military ,so all of them soldiers Kibbitz are settler towns on palestanian lands stolen 1400 criminal were killed by the owner of the land

[@manubishe]

@@manofwar2354Hamas serve since age of 3 You approve of that?

[@manofwar2354]

@@manubishe hamas have no forced conscription Zion state have forced conscription for thives

[@manubishe]

@@manofwar2354 all Hamas wear civilian clothes Any willing primary schoolers willing to get an AK - will be handed it. Peace through submission is your creed Go meet your God on your own.

[@gaelh3621]

​@@manofwar2354By your logic it's okay to kill teenagers in Gaza, have you seen what kind of Summer Camps they have? Also, the kids from the Bibas family aren't soldiers yet Hamas still kidnapped them.

[@jdotoz]

What is the purpose of a cease fire? Idealists want it to be a step away from fighting and toward negotiating. But it seems more likely that Hamas will simply use it to regroup and rearm for their next attack, and I think Israel sees it the same way. Best likely case, non-combatants can get some relief. But if the price of that is letting your enemy get back on his feet so he can hit you better in the near term, I'm not sure I would do that.

[@ChilledfishStick]

From which point of view are you asking?

[@jdotoz]

@@ChilledfishStick Most of them, I think.

[@jdotoz]

@@khwezimatangana5951 Yes, the idealistic view. As I said, it's unlikely to achieve that goal in the long term since the fight is likely to restart with more intensity after the ceasefire gives the losing side time to get stronger.

[@LollipopKnight2]

To be blunt, who cares what Hamas can do? 1400 dead Israelis, in the very most damaging operation Hamas could have possibly pulled off, with criminally negligent Israeli intelligence operations, is a drop in the bucket compared to the casualties that Israel has already inflicted on the people in Gaza in the last five months of this operation. As the video above noted, 30,000 Palestinians are dead. That is 20 dead Palestinians, half of them children, for every dead Israeli. And we are only just getting to the part where the remaining million or so people in Gaza are dying of the starvation that has been inflicted on them, after living for the last few months on animal feed and barely potable water. Israel may feel differently, but any outsider with any capacity for statistics and any humanitarian impulse should see that the vast, vast bulk of the harm that has been done, and will be done, is purely at the feet of the IDF, and so should be working to restrain them.

[@jdotoz]

@@LollipopKnight2 Are the strong required to let weaker people hurt them just because they are stronger?

[@ikabody]

The present situation in Gaza & Israel's overwhelming response to Oct 7 is ultimately the result of Israel being repeatedly forced to refrain from effectively dealing with Hamas et al over successive decades. Always having to capitulate the the pressure applied by it's Western "allies", The UN & host of NGO'S, it was inevitable that Israel would eventually say enough is enough.

[@daraghokane4236]

What? Net brags about funding Hamas he said Its nessasary to keep funding hamas and yes they keep saying this after October why to make Biden look bad. What pressure AMerica has vetoed very UN resolution condemning Israel for building settlements what pressure give me one example of that.

[@benjaminm.-s.2862]

You're wrong. Look up what Bibi said about Hamas in 2019.

[@ikabody]

@@benjaminm.-s.2862 I highly doubt it but why don't you just tell me why anyways. So, you are saying that the west, the UN & almost every other state entity has NOT applied pressure on Israel to yield every time it reacts to terror? Every time Israel has had Hamas on the backfoot, Israel has been coerced/ forced to into some kind of ceasefire or truce.

[@user-oy2zg3bt6n]

if by "uphill battle" you mean impossible then you would be correct. this "ceasefire" is considered as a complete surrender for the winning side while the losing side does not care about the casualties and will not stop the fight until one side is destroyed. there was a ceasefire before October 7th, Hamas broke that there was a ceasefire during the war, it could have extended if Hamas was willing to release more hostages but instead Hamas broke the ceasefire again.

[@daraghokane4236]

There was a ceasefire in natzi germany before the warsaw uprising, no there wasn't a ceasefire it was the most bloody year for palstines before october did you care about the attacks in the west bank on october 6th? Joe biden was only forced to pretend to care about the setaler violence's after all this why didn't that break this ceasefire? Do you mean by ceasefire Isreai will the only one doing the killing? That is still mostly true for October 7th they killed tons of people

[@katanabluejay]

Seems like it's a battle not worth fighting ...

[@Rohnon]

Secret Tunnel Secret Tunnel Through the Mountain Secret Hamas Tunnel!

[@pseudonym745]

7th 😅 Love your work!

[@ems4884]

I like the abstractions this channel brings forward. They can be very handy for seeing a bigger picture and thinking through hypotheticals. At the same time, i do think sometimes, the answer to the question is FAR simpler. Not always. Sometimes. This is one of them. It's simply not acceptable to Israel to continue to have Hamas in a position that it can continue to exist in Gaza. Imagine if Bush had said to American citizens after 9/11. "Okay, well, the Taliban and Al Quada are still there but i think it's time for a ceasefire because this is very hard on Afghans.". It's inconceivable. Given the cost to Israel's international reputation this war has had, they do not want to ever have to repeat this. And i don't blame them.

[@joshreichardt2485]

In the context of Israel's internal politics, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's position is highly precarious. He faces significant unpopularity among the populace, and the cessation of the ongoing conflict could precipitate an election that seems likely to unseat him. Thus, strategically prolonging the conflict and delaying a ceasefire could serve Netanyahu's interests by diverting attention from domestic issues.Central to this political conundrum is the contentious issue of drafting Haredi Jews into the military and reducing their scholarships for religious studies. Netanyahu's government coalition is deeply divided on this matter. Several coalition partners staunchly oppose the conscription of Haredi Jews, whereas a faction within Netanyahu's own party supports it. This deadlock underscores Netanyahu's inaction, risking the coalition's stability and increasing the likelihood of its collapse.Incorporating George Tsebelis's veto players theory into this scenario, Israel exemplifies a political system with a high number of veto players and a correspondingly small winset, especially regarding the pursuit of a ceasefire. The theory posits that the more veto players involved in a decision-making process, the more difficult it is to achieve policy change. In Israel's case, the diverse and conflicting interests among coalition partners, party factions, and societal groups act as multiple veto players. This complexity significantly narrows the winset for consensus on critical issues, such as military conscription of Haredi Jews and ceasefire negotiations. Consequently, the presence of numerous veto players complicates the process of reaching an agreement on a ceasefire, reflecting the theory's predictions about the challenges of policy change in politically fragmented systems. But really, Nentenyhu is the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire, but he might be out of power soon.

[@technokicksyourass]

Your argument is just a projection from your priors. Netanyahu is not the barrier to a ceasefire. First he's in a war cabinet that includes the opposition leader. Second, there is no way the Israeli public is going to agree to let Hamas stay in the strip after Oct 7, regardless of which "tribe" they are from. The barrier to the ceasefire is obvious, Hamas is just playing for time, holding out the hope that there is a "diplomatic" solution, while they hijack aid trucks sent by Western idiots with lots of heart but no brains.

[@nunyabusiness863]

Yes i dont know the veto theory you described by name but this is the case of many democracies. This is what autocratic leaders point to as political stagnation. Normally, this would result in manageable suffering of an interest group, but in this case, its more deadly due to the state of war.

[@kontenterrorist2449]

Netanyahu is running out of Gaza Strip if this is an attempt to extend his political life, given that Rafah is Hamas's last stand. Polling shows he is being widely blamed for 7/10 like Golda Meir was for the Yom Kippur War. (And the war cabinet, aka Gallant and Gantz are running the show in Gaza, not Netanyahu himself)

[@michaelmarx7170]

I just don't know why the president doesn't understand it as well as you do

[@glebpolevoy278]

Thanks! Some follow-up questions: 1. Which support did you mean by "all time highs" good will towards IL, given the mass demonstrations calling to eradicate IL and attacks on IL organisations from Oct. 7 on? 2. Is Hamas not only de facto, but also de jure the elected government in Gaza? And how do those elections compare to other places?

[@kennethmartin1300]

I always come here first to catch up to reality after running away from the world for awhile (you got to)🧐

[@Sasch94]

William, this is my first comment ever on your channel. Thank you for everything. Hearing you explain and lay down true facts is priceless; everything can be verified easily, your channel is a true gem. I would find it incredibly beneficial, for everyone, if your videos would be translated in more languages, not only with subtitles. I speak italian, german and english as first languages, some french and spanish aswell. I've so many friends that can't access your content, insignts, "directions" because of this barrier. Have you ever thought to do something in the direction of letting someone translate your videos, with voice over, in multiple languages? I can't fathom the help this would bring to people that can't understand english.

[@filipmedojevic2176]

Hey how are you?

[@johnstreet797]

NEVER AGAIN!

[@anotherbacklog]

Netanyahu actually have very little space left to wriggle the line. Ceasefire and concession to Gaza he may end up like Rabin. Even the international scrutiny can’t get much worse, there’s little Hague can do. Thus not much incentive for him to stop.

[@ChilledfishStick]

Netanyahu isn't an autocrat, even if he may wish he was. There is a way to remove him from power, even now, and without elections. Thus, he needs to tread very carefully. Support for Netanyahu has almost vanished, and the war can very well be the only thing that keeps him in power. That does give him incentive to keep the war going, but as I've said, he needs to tread carefully.

[@geofflepper3207]

The longer this goes on the more voters in western countries get fed up with their politicians giving unequivocal support to Israel no matter what it does. Over the next few years some liberal politicians who are stuck in a 1970s mindset of always supporting Israel are going to find themselves losing elections because people who oppose genocide will not be willing to hold their noses and vote for pro-genocide politicians. Biden could be one of those politicians who loses due to that as even last spring before the genocide there were more Democratic voters who supported Palestinians than supported Israel. Justin Trudeau another possible victim due to his support for the genocidal Israeli state. After that happens those liberal politicians and parties are going to start to realize that they are going to lose elections if they continue to support Israel and will eventually change their position and when they form government that is going to be very bad news for Israel just as it was for apartheid South Africa decades ago. It would be really bad news for Netanyahu if such a change led to governments that said they would arrest him and send him to the Hague if he entered their territory. If Netanyahu is capable of having any thoughts beyond self preservation and Zionist fanaticism then he might consider the above dangers for Israel and himself.

[@Munthasir123]

The choice of language is very interesting Senpai. The international community doesn’t have issue with the length of the invasion, 5 months is nothing for a “surgical operation” to find terrorists. It took us 20 years to find 1 man. It’s the casualty rate and literal starvation of civilians thats the issue here. There is a very plausible case of trying to kick out everyone in Gaza and then never let them back in. From the start Bibi has been openly talking about “voluntary migration”. Given the history of that country these people would never be allowed in. They are doing fundraising in NY for Gaza’s beachfront property development. This week Bibi again said maybe we can use Biden’s port to send all the people away. Thats the issue right here my friend. If Israel tries to get to the root of the issue, lets talk about total casualty numbers not just dead, about 80-100k families being radicalized isn’t the way to get rid of Hamas. Hamas represents militant version of Palestinian independence movement. They exist because peaceful Palestinian independence movement Fatah disarmed and failed horribly in the West Bank. Radicalized that many families and they will form Hamas 2.0. Export them abroad? They will form international Hamas 2.0 or Hamas2.0 that will attack Israel from Egypt, Lebanon or Jordan. Without a political solution, this war will never end. Thats exactly what the right wing Israeli politicians want. Their whole strategy is to keep Israelis in perpetual fear of initiation. There is mainstream media’s interview of Israelis in West Bank where they describe their view about the Arabs and Palestinians. After describing they themselves have a self realization and with laughter says “Well I guess I’m a fascist”. The irony being fascist were killing her ancestors with same type of excuse. There is a comic book called Mause by a Jewish author that explored this very issue back in the 90’s where an oppressed people were oppressing another groups of people using same fascist tactics. When faced with the same question their reaction was well when it was happening to me it wasn’t justified but now my fears are justified rational, and totally real. Another talking point we often hear from media is Israel is a tiny country and mowing Gaza will create more living space for Israelis because their housing price is very high right now… That sure does sound a whole lot like another regime who talked about creating more living space for their own people… how ironic indeed.

[@rotem6033]

Talking about a ceasefire without even mentioning the 134 hostages hamas keeps is wild

[@kobeh6185]

He did..

[@goese868]

no it isn't

[@kobeh6185]

@@goese868 it is pertinent to the discussion

[@omrikatzav]

Not too sure what makes you quote Hamas' figures as truth. Determining casualty figures is a hard in war in general, but that's the least of the problems with these figures. a bigger one is that Hamas doesn't differentiate between its members and civillians (according to different sources there's anywhere between 10,000 and 18,000 Hamasniks dead). It doesn't stop there. Civillians killed by Hamas and Jihadist Islam are also counted in these numbers. For example, Hamas counted (within ridiculously short time) 471 new deaths. Not only is that number inflated and unreliable, its also confirmed to be a blast of Jihadist Islam rocket (originally targetting Israeli civillians ofcourse). It was never deducted by the Gazan ministry of health ofcourse. So we have an inflated unreliable number that doesn't differentiate Hamas from civillians, and includes casualties by Hamas and Jihadist Islam. Why quote it?

[@omrikatzav]

Just for clarification, the 471 deaths were from a rocket that hit Al Ahli hospital.

[@manofwar2354]

Most of 30 thousand are women and children Keep lying hasbara bot

[@thomasl.6960]

I think the reason he quotes it is because in the segments where he does, the topic is the international perception of the conflict. And as bad as it is a lot of influential politicians in the west that lean towards Palestine also quote these numbers. It’s not really an endorsement of the numbers but more of an acknowledgement that these are the numbers that Israel often has to justify internationally.

[@omrikatzav]

@@thomasl.6960 I don't think that's what he's doing. In any case, it's definitely not what he is saying - "The Palestinians are enduring eye popping casualties" while showing the number 30,000 on screen is the way conveys the casualties.

[@ghosthunter0950]

@@omrikatzavand a reminder that there are over 2,000 more of those rockets that failed as Hamas shot over 12,000 rockets and their failure rate is known to be between 15-20%.

[@bamgamingtv9888]

POINT OF VIEW , HEARSAY

[@ehudshapira2745]

Insightful and important. However: as you say, Israel has two main goals: uprooting Hamas, and releasing the hostages. At the end there, what you essentially said is that to reach a ceasefire, Israel can be pushed by third parties into giving up on both of those goals, presumably out of the belief that Hamas cannot be pushed into making any concessions by third parties. Perhaps, then, the solution must be that the group that can't be reasoned with and refuses to give up the leverage of holding hostages be uprooted. Otherwise, what happens the day after the ceasefire, making to begin with the big presumption that Israel would be willing to give up on both of its main goals.

[@01pantagruel]

"Unwilling to make the concessions required for peace" has described both sides of this situation for decades.

[@ehudshapira2745]

@@01pantagruel we're not talking about peace though, we're talking about a ceasefire

[@VanderNugget]

“…enduring eye-popping casualties…” Is a really unfortunate phrase that I found amusing.

[@andrewharrison8436]

It is hard to see how Israel can root out Hamas when there actions will "radicalise" the majority of survivors. The quotes are because I don't see anything extreme about wanting revenge on the people who have killed your friends and destroyed your property. Both Israel and Hamas, by their actions, seem to want the war to deepen and become more bitter.

[@donaldwobamajr6550]

Anyone in Gaza who becomes a terrorist because of this war would have become a terrorist anyway due to living in a place where terrorists are in control and indoctrinate the populace with their propaganda.

[@miezeken]

Can’t Israel just let more aid through and mitigate the biggest current criticism?

[@daraghokane4236]

Why America will support them not matter what, there plan is starve Gaza to death and then pretend Hamas escaped to Egypt, Isreai loves Hams hates arabs

[@V01DIORE]

Then wouldn't a ceasefire just cost more lives in the long run? I get amas wants to leverage Ramadan for a last call for arms but honestly when has a war cared about holidays holy or not? Especially when they don't share the same religion. What's the benefits of a ceasefire other than letting amas gain more ground and play "indirect" attacks mid such like they did last time to try goad Israel to break it?

[@martint8530]

Who really believes that it is possible to clear an area of terrorists while killing extraordinary numbers of civilians? It shows an incredible lack of understanding of where terrorists come from, which is most likely deliberate in my opinion. Going with the awful gardening analogy, mowing the grass, down to the roots, I think most neutral people understand that Israel are sowing the seeds for the next crop, and it looks likely to be a bumper one.

[@user-hv7kt9zc3m]

Haven't you heard no Ramadan this year

[@V01DIORE]

Irregardless of whether it is or isn't when has war cared about holidays? Especially when the belligerents have opposing religions lacking the holiday itself in question.

[@ymichel7593]

@@V01DIOREWell, there was a Christmas truce during World War One. The Jews do have something very similar to Ramadan. Don’t know when they celebrate it, though.

[@V01DIORE]

@@ymichel7593 Yeah for a day though ignoring command till the officers forced everyone to go back to fighting, the sides were rather similar at the time though, every nation was for themselves in the mess of WW1. I don't think there's going to be any common ground in comparison. I don't think even during WW1 taking civilian hostages was acceptable war conduct.

[@ymichel7593]

@@V01DIORENot to mention that most people who fought during World War One were conscripts who might not even known what the heck they were fighting for, while much of Israeli and Palestinian society are basically taught to think of people from the other side as lesser humans. Not exactly ideal conditions for a truce of any kind.

[@manofwar2354]

​@@V01DIORE many palestanian hostages and many civilan killed for 75 years by thugs from differnet part of world Yeah sure european who did genocid do not kill civilans 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@vod96]

What pressure can case Hamas to admit defeat and try to get out with their heads on their shoulders, as in exile

[@technokicksyourass]

Exactly, not going to happen. USA invaded Afghanistan and occupied it for 20 years after 911, and everyone somehow believes Israel is going forget about Oct 7 after 5 months? I can understand a bunch of college kids who didn't experience 911 not "getting it"... but anyone who lived through 911 and thinks a "two state solution" is still on the table is detached from reality.

[@geofflepper3207]

You do understand that the 5 months of terrorist Zionist attacks on Gaza and the increased brutal oppression of Palestinians in the West Bank is going to create hundreds of thousands of new Palestinians militants who hate the Zionist oppressors more than ever, right? This is not going to bring peace - quite the opposite.

[@frankcw3230]

They had a ceasefire but Hamas violated it

[@Flight_of_Icarus]

A ceasefire, to me and my cynical ass, seems like a naive and stupid measure. It seems like the kind of thing that will give a breather in the short term, but will just prolong the fighting and ensure the survival of Hamas in the long term. Not that Israel is a saint here, but it seems like a ceasefire will just ensure more death and suffering for all sides in the future, for a short term reprieve now.

[@ajaxjs]

There was a ceasefire before October 7th.

[@facelesscleric2744]

There hasn't been a ceasefire since the Nakba

[@MotiMota15]

​@@facelesscleric2744you folks will invent words instead of admitting you lost a war you all started😂

[@davidsoup1738]

@@facelesscleric2744 There have been many. The Nakba doesn't give Palestinians unlimited justification to do whatever they want. Not to mention that the Nakba only happened because the Palestinians began a civil war in the region after the UN Partition plan.

[@facelesscleric2744]

@@MotiMota15 you sound just like the people who celebrate what happened to the native americans.

[@facelesscleric2744]

@@davidsoup1738 @davidsoup1738 you act like the Nakba ever stopped, Gaza doesn't control its own electricity, food or water and its people don't have the freedom to travel. Palestianians are treated as second class citizens in their own country. And tell me do you really think October 7th really gives Israel unlimited justification to kill tens of thousands of Palestinian civillians or to try and starve them by blocking food going into the strip?

[@imtimbabay6583]

Is this whatifalthist?

[@samour99]

I wonder if the obstacle to ceasefire is more fundamental in nature. You mention at the start that the costs of war typically induce participants to try to reduce the violence, in order to avoid such costs. But in this case, neither the Israeli state not Hamas truly internalize the costs of this conflict. The Netenyahu government is far more concerned with domestic political pressures than international ones. And the US's inability (or unwillingness) to truly pressure Israel has just validated Netenyahu's choice in priorities. On the other hand, Hamas is a terrorist group with jihad as a core tenant of their philosophy. The deaths of Palestinian civilians will not influence them in the same way it would a traditional government that seeks to protect their population. So it seems to follow that if neither of the parties internalize the costs of conflict, then the conflict will simply continue despite those costs.

[@technokicksyourass]

USA is already looking unreliable as an ally. The pull out from Afghanistan, the inability to contribute enough aid to Ukraine to win, and now "tut tutting" Israel after they were attacked. Right now, every ally is asking the USA "if TSHTF are you going to help or give me a lecture on war ethics?".

[@sagiezov3969]

Or maybe the Israeli state(and by that I don't just mean the government) does internalise the cost of the conflict, and simply deems it lesser than the cost of returning ti the status quo

[@ergosum5260]

Religion based hatred? I know that's an oversimplification.

[@casbot71]

Also with international opinion turning against Israel, it's to Hamas's ultimate goals and benifit to let Isreal keep hurting its own reputation. They want Isreal to lose favour and particularly to destroy diplomatic efforts with Islamic majority countries.. Hamas is not going to be _that concerned_ with the casualties inflicted because of the *Hydra effect,* they will already have gotten ten times the new potential recruits that they have lost in existing personnel. It's really a matter of will Hamas get good PR with the rest of the Islamic world by agreeing to a ceasefire, and can they spin that as a diplomatic victory to the Arab street? .... and is that worth the cost of agreeing to let Isreal improve its international PR as well?

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

The problem is that time and time again the leaders trend towards hypocrisy while followers are blinded by idealism. Are they really willing to pay the ultimate price just for the next generation to benefit?

[@iiNeedSkins]

Hamas don't want a ceasefire.

[@LionOfBabylon00]

But the people of Gaza do

[@iiNeedSkins]

@@LionOfBabylon00 And who did they vote as their representatives?

[@PopeSixtusVI]

I love how the definition of genocide has changed to "Loosing a war you started badly."

[@johnlavery3433]

Kinda ignoring the ethnic cleansing. Including the West Bank

[@b.6603]

"lala lala you can't convince me, I'm not seeing the pictures, I won't acknowledge the arguments, lalallalaalala" OP says, with fingers in their ears

[@chairforce0ne]

@@johnlavery3433Just like you're ignoring the genocide in Ukraine and the ethnic cleansing of Naggorah Karraba and Niger

[@ASDeckard]

@@johnlavery3433 There are still Palestinians behind Israel's lines. If they were cleansing the area, wouldn't there not be? When America ethnically cleansed the valleys for our settlers, we didn't leave 90%+ of the Indians behind.

[@gregoryturk1275]

@@b.6603Genocide is the destruction of an ethnic group. Israel is not sending Palestinians to concentration camps and shooting them by the thousands. What is happening now is the same as Japan in WW2. A fanatic government not caring for its people and fighting to the death. If you believe the bombings of Japan were justified then the current war is too. Nobody said that WW2 was genocide even though millions were killed.

[@MoonMage67]

if israel agrees to a ceasefire it effectively loses the war and oct 7th will happen again, as hamas stated, leaving a terrorist organization in control of gaza would also lead to a very loud uproar within israel so a permanent ceasefire is more of a pipedream than anything else imo

[@technokicksyourass]

Exactimundo. I have no idea why this is not obvious to everyone.

[@user-vo4wh6nv2n]

maybe don't oppress people its not rocket science

[@JZTechEngineering]

@@user-vo4wh6nv2n They left gaza, and then gaza elected a terrorist organization to government, and Israel can't politically treat them well and expect to stay in power and not be attacked.

[@imgvillasrc1608]

​@user-vo4wh6nv2n Native Malaysians (and Southeast Asia at large) have discriminated the Chinese Malays for decades during the Cold War and even forced Singapore to become independent. Yet, the Chinese Malays did not invest in bombs, rockets, and terrorism, but infrastructure and education. Look where the Singaporeans are now compared to Palestine. A thriving Asian Tiger that everyone in Southeast Asia can only dream off only because they invested in supporting its people and not eradicating its enemies.

[@Tyrgalon]

@@technokicksyourass Because opressing and slaughtering people surprise surprise does in fact not make terrorists dissapear, it creates them.

[@user-dq7vo6dy7g]

Why do Americans pronounce it Isreal?

[@emlel1948]

Being a game theorist while remaining neutral at this contested topic is probably incredibly hard. Kudos to that!

[@talhajawed848]

While I appreciate the time that went into this video, let's not kid ourselves by calling it the Israel hamas War. It is a cleansing effort. You cannot expect the 30,000 people killed were all Hamas Personnel, which is also a right of the Palestinian people (aka the right to self determination), this is no longer a war to end HAMAS. in fact, videos like these also make it seem that atrocities by the IDF have gone largely unnoticed in the research of this video, namely, the bombing of Hospitals, the killing of kids, The carving of the star of David on the back of a Palestinian civilian.

[@aviamoamo]

When someone starts a war he should consider what are the consequences no?

[@jabloko992]

Why is a ceasefire such an uphill battle? I couldn't answer that question in this comment because youtube would nuke it from orbit, but just listen to the rhetoric of those the Israelis are fighting. How are you supposed to make peace/a ceasefire with those who want to exterminate you?

[@TheHighlanderprime]

That was a brilliantly illustrated diagram of Israel’s conundrum. Unfortunately, most people cannot relate to Israel’s difficult position because they already succumbed to a Hamas friendly narrative. The 30K deaths, probably half of which were civilians could have been mostly avoided by Hamas if they cared for the Gazans.

[@ASDeckard]

85%+ have been civilians *by Israel's own admission.* International, including the US government, put it closer to *97-98% civilian.* It depends if you count high school teachers who get their paycheck from HAMAS (they are the government; they are who employ teachers) as military or civilian. Even with obnoxious desperate accounting like that Israel can't get their report over 15%.

[@sagiezov3969]

source?@@ASDeckard

[@aviamoamo]

@@ASDeckard Actually Israel speaks of over 10 000 Hmas operatives eliminated

[@kleonaeoutsideyo]

Bibi is also betting that American fundamental support will overcome all political issues. Israel is too valuable an asset. That bet has been made many times and never failed to hit.

[@martint8530]

Too valuable an asset, or too valuable a party donor? I'm sure politicians do crave that sweet Israeli currency, but it's election season, and the money dries up if they don't win in the polls. This war is already a political hot potato, Israel are playing a risky game.

[@nevermindmeijustinjectedaw9988]

still to this very day noone is able to say who the enemy is (hamas), why they are (mass violence of the most horrid fashion), what made them be that way (islam) and why they pick on jews in specific instead of anyone else (they hate the good for being good, israel is the most developed country in the region and one of the richest even without any oil. they managed to make excellent farm land from the desert, use water that they made and technology that they developed) but sure, let's just blame some fringe ideology's fringe members who just randomly keep on attacking jews. there's totally nothing behind it at all, just like in ww2. totally a fringe ideology and most wehrmacht and ss were good guys, right? just like most muslims are good guys and definitely do not wish the jews any harm. sure, that's how democracy works. the leaders got voted in bc the people thinks differently, right? not because the people agrees with them? and then they run home crying for momma bbc news to make some strongly worded comments on the issue. they jump under trucks and then complain about too many dead on their side, which then the propagandists claim is the definition of a war crime, lots of people dying, by which measures even earthquakes should be war crimes. but they arent completely wrong, war crimes have been committed, just almost exclusively on their own side. military installations next to, under or even inside schools, kindergartens or hospitals are illegal by themselves. tunnels for military use in the same area? also illegal. military installations in general in a demilitarised zone? illegal. sending underage kids to war? illegal. crossing the border without official papers? illegal. hindering transports of goods? illegal. throwing rocks? illegal. libel? illegal. violence against non-muslims? illegal. violence against non-propagandist reporters? illegal. funding military with donations for feeding and housing the population? illegal. not holding elections? illegal. authoritarian violent rule? illegal. stopping people from leaving their homes? illegal. using women and children as human shields? illegal. but sure, israel is the bad guy here somehow...

[@aubaramaubaran5329]

lagta hai chhodega Nahin Desh Aur Ka