Why Ending the Gaza War Will Not End the Red Sea Crisis

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As the shipping crisis in the Red Sea continues, an obvious solution seems to be out there. The Houthis, the group committing the attacks, says that they are a response to Israel's offensive in Gaza. So end the war there, end the shipping crisis, right? This video examines the logic and two key problems with getting the desired result. First, there is a practical problem that Israel cares more about Gaza than the shipping problems. Second, the Houthis' deeper incentive is to recruit support for their organization. Ending the war may help reduce the recruitment pool, but it will not completely eliminate it.
0:00 A Simple Solution to the Red Sea Crisis?
1:30 How the Crisis Has Escalated
4:58 The Practical Problem with Getting Israel to End the Crisis
9:57 Internalizing Externalities
14:28 U.S. Public Opinion on Gaza
17:22 The Houthis' Public Support Temptation
21:28 Resolving the Public Support Problem
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[@connorkilpin9645]

The only upside of new crises arising every week - constant William S content

[@lockejohn18]

Also my weapon company stocks are making me rich! Thanks radical Islam hope you don't destroy the world someday!

[@armintargaryen9216]

Yay I love Perun't content

[@thezaher]

I hope a day will come when William S only makes historical videos that we can learn from.

[@GaryGraham-sx4pm]

@@lockejohn18 if the rest of the world is destroyed but you're rich then it's ok. that's the way to think.

[@terjeoseberg990]

@@GaryGraham-sx4pm, That’s how the world’s billionaires already think.

[@kingace6186]

Opportunism has always been the name of the game in international relations. Especially when dealing with non-state actors, and not just nation-states.

[@maflones]

Well, there's some politics involved also, even fascism. Like the sionazi lebensraum dream Israel is.

[@samfisher8356]

This channel silences pro Israeli comments

[@maflones]

@@samfisher8356 You mean sionazi propaganda?

[@samreid6010]

As Tom Clancy used to say, international relations is just a fancy way of saying f*ck your neighbor

[@pabcu2507]

What will end it is Mr krabs buying back SpongeBob’s soul

[@Gametheory101]

This is a worthy first comment.

[@echo_9835]

Mr. Krabs is not spending 62 cents for that.

[@gang3576]

@@Gametheory101hey bozo if u did ur research you would know the houties actually stopped all attacks when there was a cease fire in Gaza for two weeks. They said a million times they will stop as soon as fighting in Gaza stops, why is ur kind so hard headed? Why are u so in denial? Why must u exhaust yourself for no result? I really don't understand u peoples mentality 😂🤦‍♂️

[@svenrio8521]

​@@gang3576🤡

[@Mark-uh3un]

One of the only good outcomes of the recent geopolitical chaos has been this channel’s emergence to my top 3 favorite geopolitical KZbinrs

[@snafu1635]

What's the other 2 channe?

[@maclain728]

@@snafu1635 Kings & Generals and Perun would be my best guess

[@cameronforester8413]

Caspian report maybe?

[@jimjormy3575]

Just a tv show to u, have fun

[@async_RNN]

Every time someone goes for "just end the war!!" ,a little bit of me dies. Thank you as always for shedding light on the topic

[@SEAZNDragon]

Yeah like neither side would find a reason to attack eventually.

[@quill444]

It is perplexing that worldwide, many of the nearly 2 billion Muslims, who make up nearly 25% of the world's population, wish to remove all Jews from any lands where they live, when at just 16 million people, the Jews only make up 0.2% of the world's population! In fact, between 1990 and 2010, the growth of Islam has gone from 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion, which is another 500 million Muslims, so the number of ADDITIONAL Muslims in two decades exceeds THIRTY TIMES the number of Total Jews living on the planet! And yet many Arab lands are still calling for the destruction of Israel and of all Jews, from the river to the sea! - j q t -

[@quill444]

It is perplexing that worldwide, many of the nearly 2 billion M&Ms, who make up nearly 25% of the world's population, wish to remove all JuicyFruit from any lands where they live, when at just 16 million people, the JuicyFruit only make up 0.2% of the world's population! In fact, between 1990 and 2010, the growth of Islam has gone from 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion, which is another 500 million M&Ms, so the number of ADDITIONAL M&Ms in two decades exceeds THIRTY TIMES the number of Total JuicyFruit living on the planet! And yet many Arab lands are still calling for the destruction of Is-ra-el and of all JuicyFruit, from the flowing stream to the saltysea!

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

Putting the fire out or 'Just stop the war' might be difficult, it doesn't mean it isn't a good idea. There isn't anything fundamental preventing the Israeli unilaterally stopping. The Israeli government will likely fall, Bibi absolutely goes to jail, snap elections would take place, Israel continues existing. Getting overly caught up in the detail leads to paralysis, sometimes you just have to go for it. "Just end the war!!" is a perfectly fine idea, sentiment and course of action. 'Just xyz singular goal' when you have the ability to act is usually limited by political will or someone having the balls to do it. Mike Johnson could totally put an Ukraine funding bill, pass it and Biden would sign it the same day. He would lose his job, but there is nothing stopping him if he chose to do so. So yeah, bits of you is dying for nothing.

[@davidford3115]

Yeah, the whole "just end the war" is gross naivety. Unless the underlying issues are addresses, it is simply banking the coals until the right conditions occur for it to come roaring back to life.

[@stooge389]

4:58 There's a reason George W. Bush kept saying things like "If there was a magic want I could wave to make it done, I would, but there is no magic wand" (incidentally, that was the first Daily Show I ever watched, May... 5th? maybe? of 2007) although it wasn't as well spoken as that, lol. Because people in America get so carried away worrying about how things SHOULD be, and assume that if they AREN'T the way they think they should be, it's because whoever in charge is CHOOSING not to make it so, while having the ability to do so. This is a naive, ridiculous take on governance. People have NO IDEA how much work goes into accomplishing even the smallest objectives in government, because while the President ACTS as the king of America for 4-8 years, he is NOT a monarch. And even that doesn't take into account the full ignorance- even a dictator with total power can't just change everything all at once overnight, and just because people think something SHOULD be a certain way doesn't mean it ACTUALLY should be that way, or even that it's POSSIBLE to make things that way.

[@danwylie-sears1134]

The way people think of it would basically mean that the president goes around to every gas station in the country each night, like some sort of fuel-obsessed Santa Claus who climbs up signs instead of down chimneys, and changes the prices instead of leaving coal in socks.

[@thezaher]

The magic wand was also the same argument Assad used when addressing corruption in Syria before the civil war.

[@Emanon...]

Well, the POTUS is in fact a "monarch" now if you'd asked James Madison. When was the last time Congress was convened to declare war before a US invasion or bombing campaign against a sovereign nation? Just an opinion from Denmark.

[@ByWho-js5bq]

Thank you for the factorial joke, i was just thinking it in my head and was about to check what that would add up to but you read my mind

[@jaapvandijk5550]

Love the on-point game theoretical considerations as always! 😀👍

[@TOEFL63]

I love you lines on maps dude.

[@Navigator2166]

Thanks so much. I find your analysis intriguing and enlightening. Appreciate!

[@Jason-gq8fo]

Unrelated but can you do a video about Ukraines domestic war economy? How it has ramped up since 2022 etc

[@Gametheory101]

I would, but that was in last place last time I ran a poll on potential topics.

[@Jason-gq8fo]

@@Gametheory101 ah fair enough! Hopefully eventually

[@davidford3115]

You might try Perun's channel. He focuses on defense logistics and did a few videos on War production capabilities for various nations including Russia and Ukraine.

[@FriedChckn13]

@@Gametheory101 Can you briefly gloss over his question, though? I for one didn’t even know the domestic economy ramped up… or is he referring solely to the military-industrial complex?

[@muadddib]

​@@davidford3115If someone likes the funny lines on maps man, then the powerpoint power user is definitely the next step

[@Toe_Merchant]

It's a shame you glossed over China, it has an economy especially vulnerable to trade bottlenecks. 90% of Iran's crude oil exports goes to China but Iran only makes up 10% of China's oil imports. I'd love an explanation as to why they haven't done more, like pressure Iran

[@kingace6186]

The problem is they can't. They can try to do something from their leased port in Djibouti, but the truth is they are not the mighty navy they want the world to think they are. For starters, the PLAN is most untested military force in the world. It would be a disaster to Chinese propaganda if they were to take an embarrassing defeat by the Houthis. And on the political level, China just doesn't want to team up with the US or upset the Arabs. It's betting that the US can handle it without them.

[@Johnny1864]

The Houthi have said they wouldn't go after Chinese ships. Not sure if Houthi's have held up that end but if they have China is probably fine with the US using up its naval assets in the region

[@danwylie-sears1134]

Mostly it's the free-rider problem. The US and China both benefit greatly from global trade, so both countries have some incentive to break the blockade. But neither benefits selectively from the effects of its own intervention. So if we're going to deal with it, they have an incentive to mostly just stand back and let us pay for it; and if they're going to, then we have that incentive. In principle, the symmetry could break in either direction. They're close to the Iranian regime, which is the principal impetus behind the actions of its Houthi proxy. And we have an even more expensive navy than they do. Hmm, maybe "sunk cost" isn't the best phrasing when talking about a navy.

[@nvelsen1975]

China has done exactly that according to Reuters: "Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say" They also have a naval base in Djibouti and a destroyer in the Red Sea. More deployments are rumoured, but China has declined to take part in Prosperity Guardian as such as it's lead by the US.

[@Stealth86651]

Most people concerned with China already know what's going to happen with it in 20 or so years, it's not really a mystery and already is heavily talked about.

[@denillefleming2942]

Thank you sir!

[@sinashafiee6849]

Fantastic ! Thank you so much for your work 🎉

[@SolarMillUSA]

@2:19 I was literally starting to sing those lyrics in my head when you dropped the next stanza. Hahaha love it

[@cursedhickoryactual]

❤❤❤ Thank you 🙏 😊 For excellent informative analysis.

[@noyopacific]

Thanks for the video William Spaniel !

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@ajaxlupis]

Love these videos. Go Pitt.

[@CallerNumberNine]

You seem to miss a critical effect the end of the Gaza conflict would have for the Houthi. If Isreal pulled out tomorrow, for any reason whatsoever, the Houthi could claim that their attacks were the cause, and thus they are the only militant group who has succeeded in curbing US interests in the region. Continuing to attack ships at that point is a pointless risk which could jeopardise their gains and shatter their narrative if the US, or worse Isreal, responded.

[@skp8748]

Exactly take away their rationale and they'd have no motive to continue they'd actually be ecstatic at the pr boost and gain legitimacy as govt of yemen. If they continue they'd lose legitimacy and all support and sympathy and be exposed as nothing more than a Shia proxy of iran not the heroic defenders of Palestinians when the mighty egypt saudi did nothing they want to be seen as

[@davidford3115]

Agreed. Anything less than there total annihilation would be viewed as they defeating the decadent West. That being said, the US should NOT get too involved in Yemen. Coordinate the actions of local forces, but the US does not need to waste blood and treasure in a part of the world that provides nothing of value.

[@memelord9232]

agreed

[@sebastianflynn1746]

Just because they could claim it doesn't mean it would be seen as credible. I could claim staring at the sun caused it to set but that wouldn't make it true, and to any external observer it would be clearly ridiculous.

[@davidford3115]

@@sebastianflynn1746 Doesn't matter if YOU think it is credible or not, it is what the AUDIENCE they are targeting thinks. "Those who can get you to believer absurdities can make you commit atrocities," -Voltaire.

[@joshuaneilson]

Thanks for your speedy updates William!

[@Markini47]

Grwat work here William!

[@KarlKarpfen]

Galaxy Leader is a RoRo ship, a car carrier, no container ship.

[@chronus4421]

Thank you.

[@an1856]

Great graphics editing

[@an1856]

The other content was good too

[@michelhenning9311]

yep, I saw that 42! coming

[@Scott4271]

I’m well over 60yo and there has been a mid east mess since beforeI was born. It’s not gona’ stop now

[@Emanon...]

That's exactly the problem. Israel has had their boots on the necks of Palestinians for generations and the US have gladly acquiesced and provided cover for their crimes. How many enemies did the US have in the Middle East before Israel was founded?

[@bargendler7528]

@@Emanon... Before Israel was founded the Middle East was under UK and France so no enemies. US support for Israel was much smaller before the 60's. One reason for US support is that many Middle Eastern countries were getting closer to Russia, so I'd say the US still has enemies in the ME even without supporting Israel.

[@Emanon...]

@@bargendler7528 Iran? Turkey? Saudi? Didn't the Arabs fight on the side of Britain and France during both world wars? I'll give you that it's not the only reason, but it's certainly the largest. By propping up vicious dictatorships in the Middle East who are doing the bidding of the US instead of their people's will - which is support for Palestinian independence - the US has created the grounds for continued hostility. Iran is a perfect example: The US overthrew a democratic government. They then went from a premier dictatorship and ally and became an anti-American regime. The same would happen everywhere because people have become more extreme, not less, because of the US and their "carte blanche" support for Israeli crimes. The people in charge of the US government have no fucking clue what they're doing. It's a gunshop full of toddlers.

[@alexmoskowitz811]

Lol not only did you sprinkle pictures of the secretary I found my dad in one of the shots! 😂 he plays the bass guitar wonder if he could join that band

[@seriyu9230]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Incredibly generous, thank you!

[@ratatui900]

hello, been watching you since start of the war in Ukraine and wondering every time, do you make your analysis in text format somewhere?

[@robertbemis9800]

Houthi are messing with our boats That never ends well

[@jackduane5555]

Durrr

[@robertbemis9800]

@@jackduane5555 historically speaking

[@jackduane5555]

@@robertbemis9800 yes, the long history of Houthis attacking 'our boats' 🙄

[@robertbemis9800]

@@jackduane5555 No, pirates in general and hostile government on occasion

[@chrimony]

As I predicted, the initial strike by the US would not stop the Houthis from attacking again. Was really obvious to me, but my opinion was the minority one.

[@moritamikamikara3879]

I don't think so. But I think most other people just didn't say it because they knew that whether it would stop it at once or not, we couldn't just not do it.

[@chrimony]

@@moritamikamikara3879 "I imagine the houthis are done with this gambit." +133 upvotes. My comment predicting the opposite got +2 upvotes.

[@doomedwit1010]

I don't think you were in the minority. But how would I know, people believe insane things in insane #s in my country. Certainly some politicians imply they believed it would. But it's hard to tell of they're that stupid or just trying to score points. I don't think this administration ever thought it would. But you can't do nothing. Notably the strikes have also specifically targetted launches. NOT strict retaliation. 100% of the destroyed missiles have not been fired. It hasn't stopped things, but it's limited the damage. The West is somehwst limited in that by and large we won't accept just carpet bombing everyone within 20 miles of a missile launch. Unfortunately that's not always efficient. But there's a cost to trying to be better.

[@vapeymcvape5000]

I'm sure the Biden administration are scrambling to contact you, the genius in youtube comments. Expect your commission in the coming days.

[@WissHH-]

Yes yes we see u

[@Weissenschenkel]

In a previous video I heard "Blaze of Glory" and now I hear "Living on a Prayer" at 2:22. Are those Easter eggs too, Mr. Spaniel?

[@jcdisci]

"History forgotten is history doomed to be repeated." I've been around long enough to remember the 6-day war and everything from then till now. Those who believe granting any concessions what-so-ever DOESN'T KNOW history.

[@shorewall]

Yeah, the only concession they want is no Israel. We're dealing with non-state actors and terrorist groups, they don't act like normal countries. I'm sure the leaders of many Arab countries would like to normalize relations with Israel, but the people don't. And even in a monarchy or dictatorship, public opinion matters.

[@davidford3115]

Agreed. Appeasement NEVER WORKS. That was the lesson of Munich that people have since forgotten.

[@scottsmith7051]

YT's censorship of comments is truly childlike.

[@jackduane5555]

Ikr

[@UncleJoeLITE]

The Houthi's map/flag logo looks like an angry commercial mascot! Maybe not that, but this 'logo' is an idea imho. =)

[@BronzeAgeSwords]

brilliant

[@THEGODDAMNDINOSAUR]

The scales of war scale 😂😂😂 dude I LOVE that

[@awesomehpt8938]

Was that a bon jovi reference?

[@GalvayraPHX]

You know, people laughed back when cyberpunk introduced armed ambulances, and now we're facing the question of should civilian shipping carry aegis systems...

[@grahamstrouse1165]

That’s not gonna happen. Remote weapon stations with box-launched low-cost anti-drone missiles is more feasible. Not much you can do about ASBMs.

[@General12th]

Hi William!

[@kerlowsc3397]

William never misses with his videos 🔥

[@FengLengshun]

13:30 huh. Huh. Never realized that. That's actually clever and funny.

[@GojiMet86]

Maybe this specific one, but not future ones. Either way, it certainly won't end me watching Lines on Maps!

[@brianhillier7052]

damn it got that song stuck in my head now!!!!! lol

[@nataliamundell6266]

It was the huthis action that dropped shipping theough the bab el Mendip just because they claim it is to target Israel does not make that Israels fault

[@stephenlight647]

Yeah, I didn’t like that either.

[@skinnybob6784]

Interrogate a question.. never heard that before, nice :)

[@SkillGame]

Thank you for helping me understand what seems to be the most volatile international powder keg of my lifetime.

[@user-oj3ip3qi9y]

You seem young. You are going to experience much more international diversity in the next few years as your elders experienced in a lifetime. The changing international order will continue to change violently for the next decade. Especially as Russia and China become weaker and Iran and India becomes a bit stronger. The US and Europe will become less involved.

[@SkillGame]

​@@user-oj3ip3qi9y Agreed, there's a lot of shit that will eventually hit the fan. I meant to say "of my lifetime up to this point"

[@jasimkhan6219]

Kindly,make videos on strategic studies

[@np8139]

I'm no expert, but I think American military leaders and politicians know better than to think they can actually beat the Houthis without boots on the ground. Air power alone has never been enough to do much to an insurgent force. I think it's all political theater. America just has to act like they're doing something. Even if the bombings accomplish little, it at least prevents a loss of prestige.

[@AL-lh2ht]

Dude, how do you think isis was defeated?

[@Goat5747]

​​@@AL-lh2htBy a lot more than just American Air power.

[@np8139]

@@AL-lh2ht Kurdish militias and Iraqi foot soldiers supported by U.S. air support. It's depressing that some people downplay how important their role was. You should look up the Battle of Mosul. 2 U.S. soldiers died. Over 1,000 Iraqi soldiers died.

[@JABN97]

@@AL-lh2htKurdish peshmerga, Iraqi military & militia, along with Syrian rebels doing the ground war. American & allied airpower. And a total lack of support in the population for ISIS

[@Moses_VII]

@@AL-lh2ht You Americans think your few thousand soldiers were doing the heavy lifting in Afghanistan and Iraq, but the Iraqi government lost 6,000 soldiers to ISIS compared to America's 5 soldiers in Iraq, and Afghanistan's army lost 60,000 soldiers to the Taliban while America lost less than 2,500.

[@mieliav]

also remember that if hamas seriously wants a ceasefire, all they have to do is give back all their captives. then, they'd have to control themselves from breaking the ceasefire themselves. (they've done that before, but maybe it's different now?)

[@bluev7427]

Thank you IMF Portwatch. 🤙

[@michaellindemann6592]

Thank you for this video. I have not completed viewing, but I think you failed to mention the disproportionate cost Egypt bears in all this and, therefore should be given the lead role in dealling with it, in my opinion, especially that this will require boots on the ground. Of course the UK and US will supply the overwhelming military trchnology and cost. Egyptian involvement would also change the narrative from houthi heroes to Egyptian victims.

[@bluegold1026]

16:42 Part of me just wants to scream that it's NOT all about the economy.

[@AndrewEddie]

I enjoyed the factorial joke :)

[@55rz55]

I think you need to change the lines on maps tagline to "militant hiring market" or something

[@honestylowkeye1171]

For a hot second I thought you were about to say his parents named him after Blink-182

[@GaryGraham-sx4pm]

antony blinken's granddad was a founder of israel so antony is very unbiased

[@Stewnat7299]

5:39 I would say that october day was not the greatest threat to Israeli security but the greatest breach of it

[@MegaSubzerro]

Security is a concept very tied to human emotional state Basically how *secured* you feel right now. And with the horrors that came that day, it was definitely the biggest threat / danger / scary that most Israelis felt.

[@Yezpahr]

16:40 Europa Universalis fans perked their ears at this timestamp.

[@xXrandom]

yess

[@charchar8]

At 12:54, how does the US benefit more from the freedom of navigation than anyone? Can you elaborate?

[@gabrielgrabois]

I liked the video, but I think its lacking addressing the obvious question that if the great powers allow hutis to force their hand this way then they can only expect this tool to be reused endlessly

[@RedMike-ym8hd]

I think you are missing the role of public outrage. It will only be reused endlessly in situations where there is a lot of outrage (or seen another way, support for militant action). You also have to balance a response against the potential for that response to cause yet more outrage, as the video also pointed out with respect to Israel's actions against Hamas. There was a previous video that made this point: even if Israel could crush Hamas, it won't remove the conditions that made Hamas possible, so you can expect another actor to take on its role.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

No. They get support for this action for this reason, but they might not get support for other reasons. If they were to attempt to shakedown global trade like a troll under the bridge, you can expect Arab states to turn on them very quickly. The current reason allows the Arab states to use it as leverage on Israel as we have seen with the normalisation carrots. Yes, it's Ironic, but that has never stopped politics. Saudi Arabia has been trying to get rid of Houthis for a decade and 50 billion dollars. With the help of a coalition they can present an existential threat to Houthis. It's like shouting at your neighbour to turn down their music during a new year's party, but if they start extorting you to turn it down, you are far more incentives to call the cops before the party naturally comes to an end.

[@GoingtoHecq]

If this is a storm in the ocean, is it operation ocean storm?

[@ShanI3lade]

honestly I was already thinking when I saw 42! Iand chuckled at myself and when you actually made that joke :D

[@CORVAIRWILD]

4th? Florida vacation view

[@theconqueringram5295]

2024 will be one Hell of a year.

[@PunmasterSTP]

3:49 A "refreshing" shift to the drones?

[@jackhsiehhautecouture]

So easy to understand

[@jonathanlanglois2742]

The short answer is probably not. The entire middle east has been at each other's throat for more than a century at this point. The entire place is a powder keg. This is merely the latest episode in a long series of conflicts.

[@brucetutton7897]

Let's end the war and find out.

[@steelytemplar]

What is your proposal for ending the war? Israel gets military aid from the US, but the reality is that they haven't needed that aid for many years at this point to remain one of the strongest military powers in the region. They have an advanced economy and their own military industry, which is capable of providing pretty much all of the materiel they will require to continue the war in Gaza. So, just stopping the aid won't stop the war. William mentioned some potential geopolitical levers in the video, such as those involving the UN, but Israel has always had a mindset of being willing to go it alone if need be, so such measures will only have limited success if Israel is convinced that they need to carry our this war for the safety of their nation. That basically leaves sanctions, which take a long time to work, and direct military action, which is an unrealistic expectation. Even if the US went as far as sanctions against Israel, they won't use military force against them. So, the idea that the US or any Western nation is capable of stopping the war in Gaza is not realistic. It's a convenient narrative for groups like the Houthis, who tried launching missiles/drones at Israel only to have them promptly intercepted and so have now decided to try firing at unarmed civilian ships instead, but it isn't based in fact. The fact is that countries like the US can put pressure on Israel to change their tactics and/or to reduce the intensity of their operations. They can also try to arrange various forms of negotiations. But that is the realistic limit. The US isn't going to be able to snap their fingers and make Israel agree to a ceasefire.

[@michaelotieno6524]

...,how does one explain why the Houthi's attacks stopped during the Gaza ceasefire.

[@_JayRamsey_]

5:53 Jon Bernthal is a young Netanyahu clone confirmed

[@Gametheory101]

Hmm, yeah, I see it.

[@alexpotts6520]

I was certainly not ready for young Netanyahu to be so *hot.*

[@kushnardy1322]

Am I missing something…? Didn’t see a shout out for one of your books…. Are you ok?

[@Vatnikenrager]

Is ABlinken not old enough to run for president or something?..i'm not American so my knowledge is limited on u.s politics/politicians but from the outside he seems like one of the few non lunatic or geriatric's you have that fits the bill.

[@chillxxx241]

Correction: The US benefits from “freedom of navigation” less than anyone else? The US has the most capable Navy in the world and they don’t need this advantage. China benefits from this more than any other Nation because it gets to trade, but bares little to no cost.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

Yeah, nah. US support for freedom of navigation also means they can blockade you. The US owns the sea, and you get to use it at their pleasure. China knows if they invade Taiwan, they will lose 'Freedom of Navigation' thus factor that cost into any calculus.

[@davidford3115]

China benefits most, but India also benefits greatly. I am glad to see the Indians are stepping up to the plate to fight piracy.

[@C-Farsene_5]

This will certainly affect the trout populations

[@spartaragekick6202]

by living n this world....& not tryin to own & control it....simple as that....

[@spartaragekick6202]

thats how u end all crisis....

[@DavidSaintloth]

Possibly but it certainly did start it.

[@J-tu3hw]

What's going to happen when other countries identify and deal with the hamas population in their midst?

[@RoshanKumar-br6op]

my main issue with this is that you never actually consider whether the Houthis are actually, truly motivated by ideological beliefs, because their entire movement is an ideological one. they are islamic revolutionaries, they operate on ideology, not realism, that's the wild card that you never really analyze.

[@afgor1088]

you're so right. all our enemies are barbarian morons and there's no point even trying to understand them or treat them as if they have rational motives. no one in history has ever thought this, you're the first.

[@davidford3115]

@@afgor1088 Nice sarcasm. You might actually want to study on what Salafism is and why negotiating with religious zealots in pointless. Or are you not aware that as soon as the US left Afghanistan, the Taliban and ISIS-K have turned on each other? Yes, former allies are now fighting each other over religious differences between Deobandism and Salafism.

[@richardarriaga6271]

​@@afgor1088By realist standards, Ukraine should have accepted the Russian dominion. People don't live in chessboards. Revolutionaries, religious reactionaries or otherwise, are least likely to give up.

[@RoshanKumar-br6op]

@@davidford3115 you've got your ideologies confused again; the Houthis aren't zealots, they're revolutionaries; rational actors whose politics are positive, not normative. their model of Government is a Republic, they're religious, yes, but for the region, they're essentially Jacobins.

[@davidford3115]

@@RoshanKumar-br6op Religious zealots often start out as revolutionaries. Iran for example was under the Shah until religious revolutionaries under Khomeini overthrew the government and instituted its theocracy backed by, yes, THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD. Iran today doesn't just support anyone. The specifically back ISLAMIC resistance moments. So, while your contentions on the surface may be logical, they are predicated on false assumptions that blatantly ignore critical details and miss the bigger picture.

[@hulkhogan4203]

does that say "Not how to end the crisis," "how Not to end the crisis," or "how to end the crisis...NOT!"?

[@williamlloyd3769]

Even if war in Gaza had not occurred, the Houthi had the capability to put shipping in the Red Sea at risk. This ongoing threat will continue even if current attacks cease

[@minimalistic_banhaus]

Houthis consider both their short and long term incentives. If they attack even when there is a ceasefire in Gaza, they will no longer be able to use the attacks as a bargaining chip to create the ceasefire they (and Iran) desire.

[@ashvio]

That doesn't make any sense lmao. Houthis have been there for years and never did anything like this. They aren't insane lunatics, they operate based in global politics, and it's very clear this happened because of the genocide happening near their doorstep.

[@thezaher]

Again lines on maps

[@davidford3115]

@@minimalistic_banhaus That assumes they want a bargaining chip. Some people can't be reasoned with. Some people just want to watch the world burn.

[@bornonthebattlefront4883]

It could have, but now the Houthi’s have more attention then they have ever gotten It’s too big now, it has to end another way

[@Doomer_Optimist]

Delete Me is not a great business name considering where the lingo has progressed to recently

[@Frank-st6gd]

There not going to stop. That's a no brainer.

[@NorroTaku]

my mans spent to much on improved animations and downgraded his takes on the Israel genocide situation in exchange

[@bonvoyage5377]

I consider myself fairly educated..........none of what I just watched made any sense to me at all. I am a subscriber to this channel and really enjoy the content on the whole. Im going back to my default view on the middle east........it is an insolvable problem

[@davidford3115]

Yeah, he is completely off the mark today.

[@yakov95000]

Two additional points with this good analysis strictly from the Israeli point of view,the Israeli "operation" ends with reoccupation of the strip and military model(probably I don't know)used in the heavily populated areas in the West Bank(that means constant raids to arrest and kill militants and military bases/fortification near by some already biult inside Gaza),this mean atleast on the outside "the war" is not going to abruptly end with deal or something(unless Israel fold)but as slow downsizing of activity with both sides(similar to 2000s Khomat Magen operation in West Bank which crushed the 2nd intifada),this way the Houthis will have an excuse for as much as years to come on every big raid or arrest atleast if they are not stopped. Second thing I wanted to mention is that Israel view of this strategically as opportunity not only a bad thing,it is indeed true that the Eilat port is there to trade with Asia and East Africa(India,Ethiopia,Singapore and China)but overall this action is also can be strategic asset,it hurts Egypt hard(which already have massive internal pressure from Palestinian/Muslim brotherhood supporters to open the border)which make it more and more pressured to accepting of partially/full opening of it's borders with Gaza connecting it with Financial support,also Israel qiutely found already a inland route to Emirati ports(still small but that can expand qiutely on both side with time to bypass the blockade)and this could be ground changer with by passing Hormuz,Suez and Bab al mandab,from Emirates to Israel if this will be in larger scale this strategic earthquake again ALREADY happens in small scale because of the war.

[@GaryGraham-sx4pm]

show less

[@yakov95000]

@@GaryGraham-sx4pm What do you mean?

[@agush22]

show nose

[@yakov95000]

@@agush22 Show brain?

[@davidford3115]

@@yakov95000 I think he means separate that into digestible bits. Put some paragraph spacing so that it does not cause readers to get glass-eyed.

[@bingo5694]

10:53 is Xi blinking or are my eye twitching? Holy smokes that's a video and not a photo??? rofl

[@StephenPhantom]

A way to pressure Houthi's is to give them their territory in Yemen that is supported by Saudi, this would buy off the attacks for a while without leading to a broader conflict and if the population areas are against the 'official' government then maybe it should go anyway, that said convincing Saudi to do this as this government in Yemen is a buffer between them and the Houthi's so getting them to play ball would be hard ... this would end the Red Sea Crisis without the need to deal with Israel/Hamas deadlock

[@user-vt2cr8qd1b]

Still doesn’t solve recruitment incentives

[@StephenPhantom]

yeah capitalism has to go before the recruitment incentives are removed @@user-vt2cr8qd1b

[@whosthatguy8396]

No

[@frog8220]

I watched this thrice and didn't find anyone hiding anywhere. I also don't have any idea who we're looking for hiding somewhere. William there's got to be a less frustrating way to push your watch time.

[@Derpmandang10]

It came out 50 minutes ago, and has a length of 24 minutes so you didn't do it 3 times.

[@richdobbs6595]

@@Derpmandang10 You are assuming that you accurately know when it came out and that Mr Toad didn't watch in accelerated mode looking for the person hiding.

[@Derpmandang10]

@@richdobbs6595 I do because I was there before an hour passed so I could see that the video was uploaded 50 minutes ago when I made the post. Also, what's the point of looking in accelerated mode? You need to search carefully, not hastily?

[@richdobbs6595]

@@Derpmandang10 Sorry, you can't trust that the time posted for when something is uploaded to KZbin is actually when it was first visible to others on KZbin. People make similar comments to yours all the time. But KZbin doesn't invest a lot of effort to make this meta data accurate and consistent between different servers.

[@thomasdoubting2730]

"The Houthis whant how much qat⁉️"

[@Luca-sz5uy]

Did a student of yours go over your slides and put in all the playful transitions? What happened here? :D

[@johannes5357]

Damn, Benjamin Netanjahu was handsome back then

[@tharinduweerakkodi5621]

Why any one don't intrest in bypass houthis. Saudi arabia have ports on both side(on red sea and gulf sea). Isn't it much cheaper go though saudi arabia than go around africa?

[@PentagonalAntiprism]

please keep lines on maps... north pointing up :) The Gaza at 0:33 looked weird

[@jeffharmed1616]

The cat is out the bag. Like the way airline high jacks exponentially expanded, so shipping straits around the world can be throttled on a whim

[@ondrab100]

Video about South Africa’s action before the ICJ and a possible genocide in Gaza when?

[@michaelmorford3932]

You don't know how long I've been waiting for the A. Blinken joke!!!! 😅😅

[@samuela-aegisdottir]

I did not understand why the Houthis started and continued attacking the ships when it had so negative consequences for them, now I understand: it is money.