Why I think Kipchoge *Might Not* Win The 2023 Boston Marathon

#kipchoge #bostonmarathon
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Higher Running Coach and Hoka Athlete Sage Canaday gives any surface any distance runners from 5k to the ultramarathon and marathon training tips and advice from running form and technique to long run workouts, speed training, running vo2max workouts and lactate threshold intensity as well as long runs and diet and nutrition advice. A pro trail mountain runner athlete for over a decade, Sage is a plant based marketing content creator for his sponsors and other brands with regular VLogs, training talks and tutorials. Check out training plans at Higher Runing and get free coaching resources!
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[@Vo2maxProductions]

Also, if you're close to a BQ or sub 3 hour time, check out our "BQ Qualifying Marathon Training Plan" at Higher Running! We also have a "hilly marathon Training Plan" that is advanced for those training for Boston or NYC (some of the elevation data as seen in this video B-roll and pacing strategy come with that plan packet!). Find out more here and thanks for your support 🙌🏃🏻‍♂: higherrunning.com/training-plans/bq-marathon-training-plan/

[@DrProfX]

It sure helped me BQ!!👍

[@andershekkli6587]

This aged well. Sage knows what he is talking about!

[@Zeuskazoo]

Yup.. also the Boston course gets lonely and kipchoge feeds off the crowd

[@jabumalinga1943]

@@Zeuskazoo more probably age has caught up.. his 39 now

[@billythekidnax]

​@@jabumalinga1943 kipchoge ran marathon with official wr less than a year ago. I think that hills are not his friends)

[@brianmessemer2973]

Wow you CALLED it sir. Also - you finished 16th place in Boston in 2015? Oh my word! That's absurdly good. In my mind I rationalize (not quite the right word...perhaps "simplify") ultramarathon running with "it's more about the distance than the speed" but DANG you're in that sub 2:20 stratosphere of marathon running AND an elite ultramarathon and mountain running champion? Talk about an all-rounder elite distance runner, that's so amazing 👏👏👏

[@junriepuyos7510]

You're right Sage weather has been the biggest impact on the race, especially on a lower temperature rather than a high temp. Also at mile 20'ish you mentioned is really tough better at the first 13 miles he must be in behind the pack to prevent the tailwind you mentioned. You nailed it. I watched the live coverage of the Boston Marathon 2023 in my opinion why he lose because he wasn't able to get his last energy drink at the aid station. He ended up in 6th place at 2:09:53 (not sure 😚) most important is he did not drop out or forfeited in the race despite of so much expectation and pressure on him he finished it. Heart of a champion ♥️♥️♥️. Congratulations to Eliud Kipchoge so much love and respect here♥️♥️♥️. Congrats also to the champion Evans Chebet🎉🎉🎊🎊

[@grgr6720]

Everyone can make a prediction but not everyone can justify it with facts and most importantly personal experience. Sage really nailed this one.

[@doofenshirtzful]

Wow knowing the results, I hope you 've bet some money. You guessed the winner, the medalists and the finishing time as well. Well done @Sage Canadey, I'm really impressed.

[@Vo2maxProductions]

unfortunately I did not bet money.....wish I did though!

[@ItsDaCMD]

@@Vo2maxProductions Glad you didn't. Betting is a losing game. even though you absolutely nailed it here.

[@jeroen1989]

Regarding the 'no pacers at Boston': Having seen him run in Berlin last year, it looked more like he was pacing the pacers than the other way around. xD

[@philoneussquire3877]

Well Sage, I thought this was way off but you clearly earned your first name with this one

[@MrJaydalufa]

So glad you mentioned drag is exponential with velocity. Key fact for elites and headwind. Will impact them more than a 2:40-3hr marathoner.

[@mkdesu]

Yoo, you predicted it.

[@motarek1359]

Wow you called it 👌🏽

[@JamesDunne]

Called it 😮

[@giwrgoszarkadakis5876]

Who’s here after the marathon

[@starryfisher]

Spot on on your prediction! Hope he gets to race Boston again and win.

[@RedSeaChallenger]

Agreed and would love to know his take-aways in preparation for a rematch.

[@madmaf6011]

Thanks Sage, enjoyed that, would be great to see you do previews of other races and events this year.

[@jos8192]

Kawauchi’s win in 2018 was absolutely magnificent

[@Vo2maxProductions]

Yes and so was Desi's win (esepcailly since i was teammates with her and knew her when she narrowly got 2nd place years prior). 2018 was a really unique Boston because of the weather.

[@19Kamau79]

Yes, Kawauchi have monster metabolism against hypothermia 😊

[@el_arte]

That race obliterated him and I doubt it’ll ever run another major.

[@futtocksend8832]

@@el_arte Yuki Kawauchi has now completed over 100 sub 2.20 marathons. A new record (2021)

[@danielfarrugia3884]

​@@el_arte this is the most incorrect comment in the history of incorrect comments. Kawauchi has literally run more sub 2.20 marathons than anyone in history

[@xantg6931]

Well...this is superb analysis. I have used your running training programs to great effect and having just watched the Boston Marathon iand seen the result i respect you even more.

On point Sage! All the best.

[@caderik1386]

You nailed this one - Kipchoge should have used one of the vo2max training plans

[@acrobatman]

I was hoping you would say because you will run the Boston Marathon and freaking crush him 😊 i have been cheering for you for a while!!!

[@Vo2maxProductions]

🤣 in my marathon prime....on my best day....I'm finishing about 3-miles (5km) behind Kipchoge!

[@abhijitgchavan]

You were spot on all fronts. Respect!

[@Soap_MC]

Running this race on Monday! Stoked!

[@spenceraronfeld4456]

You called it, in the most respectful and loving way! Nice insight Coach!

[@barco581]

Wow, spot on. Great video!

[@Greg-me8le]

Wow. Your video was very enlightening to me! I never really appreciated why it was so important that someone cover a surge. But when you explain the wind factor of the elite field vs the amateur field it makes much more sense. If there are no winds, their speed produces headwinds of 13 mph! Amateurs might only be 7.5 mph with big crowds around. thanks for opening my eyes to that important factor as a viewer.

[@Stevenc1984]

To borrow a phrase from football (English soccer) "Can they do it on a cold rainy night in Stoke?" This was actually refering to Lionel Messi and his ability to play well in bad conditions against a very defensive, hard tackling Stoke team. If Kipchoge wins and conditions were favourable for him then that's impressive, but if he wins and the race was an extremely tough one that's incredible. Can't wait to find out!

[@cmo3]

Wow, you called it!

[@jamesb2034]

Nice analysis Sage! Time is irrelevant in Boston, every year is different. There's going to be some headwinds, not super strong, 7 to 10 mph. Rain will be hit or miss, and as you noted that's likely to be more of a factor in regards to the times. I think sub 2:04 might be doable, probably not 2:03. I like Kipchoge to win, mostly because of commitment to prep! I do think he'll be patient, probably waiting till the Newton hills to make a move. Also, great point about the downhill at mile 15, my quads went on me there one year, I lost a minute/mile over the last 10 miles🙂. It certainly does happen! Hope your running strong again soon!!

[@tc-3]

Enjoyed your take on the subject. It would be awesome if you would do a prediction video for the women's field, as well. I'm excited to watch tomorrow's race!

[@Vo2maxProductions]

The women's race is going to be super interesting and historic and competitive. I wish I had time for it, but I don't think I can get an analysis together within the next 20 hours!

[@tc-3]

@@Vo2maxProductions Yeah, I figured there isn't enough time. I bet we'll be witnessing a lot of competitive races in the future, so I'm looking forward to your potential analyses of those! :D

[@gcklo]

I ran Boston 5 times. Once the weather was amazingly good (2011), once the weather was good (2010), 3 times the weather was not that good with either strong head wind or rain (2099, 2014, 2015)

[@Vo2maxProductions]

in my experience 2018 was the worst. In 2015 I held it together in the headwind...but it likely cost me the Olympic Trials time by 12 seconds. Other years it was certainly "hot" and people ran quite a bit slower. Generally elites actually do better in slightly "warm conditions" compared to extreme cold though.

[@marlinweekley51]

“Ran” it 2018 - nuff said, 2021 - wx was decent, 2022 weather was great. (Was set to run this year but PF caused me to pass on it.) Personally i think the idea is to run ALL the hills and train for them. You can loose a lot of time walking the hills which i see a lot of people do. A slower flat pace that’ll allow you to run the hills will put you minutes ahead of your goal.

[@BenAbston]

You called it dude. Excellent analysis.

[@williamamor9612]

Excellent synopsis. Thanks so much.

[@omarlazo5191]

Fantastic analysis before the race. You rock!

[@MarkJWesson]

You got it spot on Sage!

[@ida.rose181]

I hope it's a fun race to watch, men and women! Kipchoge def makes it exciting.

[@dewylee6441]

Wow, ur analysis is reasonable and impressive, thumbs up!

[@laurelkendall78]

You nailed it Sage!!

[@today-nl]

Sage knows what he is talking about 👍👍👍 Hope Kipchoge would come back!

[@gcklo]

I stand corrected. Your analysis was right on!

[@JoelLong]

You makes some very valid points.

[@ihadnoideathatgoogleallowe6551]

I didn't click this video to watch it before the Boston Marathon 2023 happened. Now that it's over, I finally had the interest to watch it lol. Video's awesome btw.

[@christophersmith3254]

We must not forget kipchoge was an elite cross country runner. And double Olympic champion. I remember he outclassed the field in hot humid Rio conditions. He will win

[@Vo2maxProductions]

I didn't forget that!

[@zenshutter]

That didn’t age well

[@torontoclarinetist]

Sadly it did not.

[@motarek1359]

and a good reminder that the marathon doesn’t owe anyone anything!!

[@mkdesu]

he didnt win you jinxed it

[@smirnowski]

You forgot about the most deciding factor for Kipchoge's performance: Bottle Claus. I hope they fly him out to Boston.

[@philippernst4877]

He was missing a bottle and lost the race.I guess he was really missing bottle Klaus at that moment...

[@cherylross1]

You called it!

[@Turnschuhheizer]

:D

[@caderik1386]

Wow great analysis - now I'm really excited to see how that Marathon will go

[@uMsubathi]

Your analysis were spot on Sage 👏🏼

[@tav4755]

Dang you called it

[@CL-tv7pz]

interesting watching this after the event. Great analysis.

[@lp3761]

I remember my first beer

[@stephe999]

Wow you called it Sage. 👏

[@geoffclarke3796]

The elevation profile of Boston must make it more challenging than on typical flat courses like Berlin, London, Chicago & Rotterdam. I was actually quite shocked at the high DNF rate at Boston in 2018 as didn't think that cold conditions would have as much an impact as heat. I think its true that elites cope with heat better as it was very warm at London in 2018 (around 24C/75 farenhiet) but Kitchoge won in 2.04 and Mo Farrah was third in 2.06 but nearly all my running club friends targeting between 2.45 - 3 hours were slower by some margin due to the heat.

[@cherylross1]

You called it!

[@stepan1968]

A prophetic prediction that turned out to be very true Mr Canaday!

[@davidgagen9856]

Nailed it!

[@mr.balawis9948]

Bravo Sage, bravo😎

[@ALEXANDROCONSTANTE]

You are more one of the most people in the world keeping unbelieve in Kipchoge! He’s training in ups and downs always! To every Marathon! It’s unbelievable! Good luck to you!

[@KGBSim247]

Wow what a good predictions let's get his feedback to give us his really reason what caused him his 6th place. Wow your prediction was spot on an the haters were on your case. 😊😊😊

[@mattiabianuccitrainer]

You were right! 😊

[@DrProfX]

You called it!!

[@rodrigogorosito4206]

I saw this video yesterday, and throughout the race I remembered you. Please give me the lottery numbers, you are a psychic.

[@jabumalinga1943]

you picked it.. spot on.. when are you coming back to run comrades?

[@patrikkorda]

Nailed it

[@cosmosrunner]

Just came to give you some big ups ater your prediction was spot on. Here's mine - 2024 Kipchoge Boston and Olympic Champion.

[@keeprunning5457]

nice video as always coach sage! kipruto es peligroso y chebet tambien

[@guywarner8391]

OMG, this was prophetic Sage. Do you drive a Delorean?

[@hufemeve]

Weather forecast for Monday's race is low 50's with "rain showers" and 10mph East Wind........ Will those factors affect Kipchoge? during the press conferences he was asked something similar and his response was that weather will affect all the athletes regardless, so I agreed with his view. What I do believe It could be the decisive factor will be the pulls and the change in pace created in the hills & specially the long drag to the end, where the majority all the winning moves have been made. Benson Kiputro IMO will be Kipchoge's challenger.

[@timbrownblacksmithandknife5648]

How could you Sage. Wait till the the serious runner gets wind of this. Lol. Very insightful video. I'm super keen to see how it unfolds. im hoping for optimal weather conditions too see if someone can get under 2.01 even if it doesn't could. I'm hoping the elites work together to try get at least 2 or 3 under the course record, weather dependant obviously.

[@Vo2maxProductions]

Oh look at his IG!.... @TheSeriousRunner def got wind of this vid 🤣!

[@BrendanEvan]

New camera!? Looks crisp!

[@Vo2maxProductions]

it's actually an 8 year old "cheap sony" (doesn't even film in 4k!)

[@WikiSphereCube]

You were Right!

[@h1pbs964]

Impressively accurate! He named the top three finishers as the most likely contenders to beat Kipchoge.

[@feezee82]

Sage called it! After his performance in Berlin, I thought Kipchoge would dominate Boston as well. But Sage was right, Kipchoge couldn’t pull it off. Hopefully he will do better in New York.

[@jabumalinga1943]

age catches up.. his 39 now.. will go down as the greatest, but nothing lasts forever

[@feezee82]

@@jabumalinga1943 well he ran a massive world record about 6 months ago. So I don’t think this performance yesterday was down to age. Just a really challenging course and conditions, or perhaps he just was having an off day. I think he still has another 2-3 years on top.

[@jabumalinga1943]

@@feezee82 agree and i hope he does, but nothing lasts forever.. in running, your body can start to say no while your mind still says yes.. especially at 39, there are not other guys that old winning or even competing in marathons

[@feezee82]

@@jabumalinga1943 oh I know what you are talking about. I recently turned 40 myself. My mind is stronger and more determined than ever. But my body says “not so fast” 😅. So Kipchoge needs to make adjustments to his training. In his pre race conference he said that he trains like he has been for years. And I don’t think that’s the way to go forward. But he is the champ, and I’m just a hobby jogger 😁

[@adan7928]

you spot it bro

[@TheBenz99]

One needs experience about the terrains to have the mind well prepared besides the cold and wet weather conditions. Time will prove Kipchoge's determination to challenge and conquer this route as an elite runner and he has said he will return to Boston for another run! This will make us remember him more favourably if he finally can win this Boston Marathon!

[@bradyevans3318]

You were so spot on with the top 3 and kipchoge 😭

[@mauludirachman7881]

Your prediction is in fact realized 😁

[@squarebodylt5469]

LONG LIVE THE B.A.A. and KIPCHOGE !!! I’ll catch up with you and Sage in a few days after MONDAY. I’m serious.

[@zaynes5094]

Lets also not forget he did drop out from 2021 year's Boston Marathon (in exchange for preparing for the Olympic marathon trial) and didn't race very well at the Chicago Marathon, but he was apparently dealing with a cold, I wish I could run a 2:09 marathon with a cold, I can't even break 3 hours yet and I'm only 24 (I know, it's all about progress and patience). Kipruto (he is a 2:04 guy) won that Boston Marathon in 2021 (2022 went to Evans Chibet also of Kenya) and Kipruto won Chicago marathon 2022 and so I'd say for sure is a favorite. Usually Kipchoge doesn't get really going until the last 10k where he really starts going into another gear. Saw that at both Olympic marathons.

[@aaronharman5431]

It’s almost as if he’s scared of getting caught for something in America 🧐

[@chrisvarelabenitez4690]

Can’t believe folks would disagree with Sage. From someone who has ran marathons before & Boston. He knows his stuff. Long time fan here ❤

[@robertstokes9034]

I knew I should have watched this before the race. 🤦🏾‍♂️😂 This makes so much sense based on actually watching the race.

[@blackjowka5008]

You nailed it 😅

[@GeorgiosA]

Sage will henceforth be known as the man who called it! Hot takes tend to explode in one's face, but this one was spot on - nice one Sage

[@thamilawrence8468]

Wow man you were right

[@silvermandavid]

I hope Kipchoge has a great day, but everyone, even Kipchoge, could have a bad day. Someone else might have a spectacular day. That's why we call it a race...because you have to race.

[@djwirtanen]

Good analysis. I’m running my 8th consecutive. Don’t think we’ll seen anything like 2018. I hope Kipchoge wins but Boston is so difficult with the weather patterns, I don’t know how anyone will perform let alone myself.

[@jassaljs]

Best wishes👍

[@Vo2maxProductions]

good luck!

[@ironmantooltime]

Ha that's typical marathon, run it 8 times and have no idea how you'll do, good luck 👍

[@cicirunner]

Sage called it

[@Ladakhirunner]

man you're legend you can forsee future

[@deepmode4894]

You wizard! You nailed it! Haha

[@seasensky]

You are right!

[@TheAlanb85]

Sage mastering the click bait! Go Sage! ❤

[@ruffeyx]

woaahh your analysis proven!

[@melvinho77]

Good job on the prediction! Now give us the lottery numbers!

[@josephberg6815]

Well, you were right!

[@earayaCR]

He will win, because is sooo good and profesional that he is prepared for everything. Nothing is casual for him. Is just pure work. But will be funny and interesting because I'm sure there will be a few crazy guys that will start fast in the first downhill miles, so they will put some pressure. Different that in Berlin where he always put in the front from the start.

[@TheSeriousRunner]

ummmm.....

[@LuisBecerra79]

Long live Kipchoge!!! 😄

[@davidfisher345]

He has been training for the hills in their Thursday farlek training ..I saw his comments that he wants to break the Boston record

[@Vo2maxProductions]

in his LetsRun interview he didn't say that....he mentioned that it was all about place/winning and hinted that time was not a driving factor at all

[@Alanrunz3]

I ran Boston 18. Brutal day and yes that was the coldest I have ever been after I crossed the finish line. Hypothermia started to settle in

[@Alanrunz3]

@@jamesromano3288 and what??

[@Alanrunz3]

@@jamesromano3288 Sage said he ran 2018 Boston marathon and was stating how cold he was afterwards. I was replying to him that I also ran Boston that year. I don’t think you watched the whole video clown

[@Vo2maxProductions]

@@Alanrunz3 thanks for sharing your experience and congrats on the finish!

[@padmabharani6122]

I was hoping you are wrong so didn’t watch it but back now to watch it on why you predicted it

[@lukas_missault]

Well predicted!

[@pbnotj1]

. The weather in London 2020 was cool and wet this fits forecast for Boston tomorrow so could be a problem for Kipchoge .

[@doragreen3887]

Great preview! I love Kipchoge and would love to see him win but my money is on Evans Chebet. For the women I pick Obiri but would love to see Tuliamuk or Des on the podium!

[@doragreen3887]

Woo!!! What do I win!?! I got both predictions right and you were also right Sage! Was a very exciting race and it was great to see Kipchoge finish strong! Nice to see Bates up there as well!

[@brianthompson4190]

Crazy how this guy actually called it 😱😱