World's highest paid CEO says Tesla will not solve FSD until the 2030's

[@electricviking]

I have free tickets for all of you to the Sydney EV Show here: www.futuredriveauto.au/syd/ev24/comp-tickets Click here to get a free charger and installation when pre-ordering the G6 xpeng.com.au/?qr=726XPO The best solar company in Australia just installed my new solar system. Check them out here: www.resinc.com.au/electricviking

[@SmartMart1658]

SAM - Happy Birthday! - Lucid is working on a more affordable car - "project mid-size" - Cory Steuben formally at Munro is working for Lucid on this project. This Model Y competitor should be out in 2026. In the meantime Lucid is on the verge of launching the Gravity SUV before the end of this year. Your statement about Lucid's cars being twice the price of any Tesla is not true. The Lucid Air Pure is a direct competitor to the Tesla Model S and price starts at $69k and should qualify for the $7500 EV tax credit if you lease the car. The 2025 Lucid Air Pure has a certified EPA 5 miles per KWh.

[@mydogsbutler]

Sam..... Musk in 2016 also predicted FSD by 2018. Kurzweil predicted FSD by 2009. They were wrong. While your enthusiasm for tech is wonderful, and I like this channel, when making future predictions you need to take a more objective view, not a fanboy mentality. Just because someone is wrong about something doesn't mean they can't be right about something else. Just because someone is right about something doesn't mean they can't be wrong about something else. No one reasonable disputes Musk and Kurzwell are intelligent and knowledgable but they make mistakes like everyone else. And when someone else in the same field predicts something in the future contrary to their views this doesn't make them pessimistic or necessarily wrong. They are just interpreting the available information and unknowns differently which leads them to different conclusions.

[@mydogsbutler]

Not saying Kurzwell is necessarily wrong in his current predictions but I think you are misrepresenting a bit Kurzwell's success rate in AI timeline prediction. He does that himself by selectively editing out he's changed his own timelines over the years. For example, in his 1990 book "The Age of Intelligent Machines Kurzweil originally predicted mid 21st century for AI. Also, the definition of artificial intelligence he was using back then was passing the Turing test. Today few computer scientists define passing a Turing test as the true measure of a general AI but rather a milestone towards it. In his 1993 essay The Coming Singularity (you can find the short essay online and read straight from the horse's mouth) Kurzweil predicted super intelligence somewhere between 2005 or after 2030. In his 2005 book The Singularity is Near he revised his prediction to around 2045. And while software that improves itself sounds like super-intelligence it's not necessarily the case. Much like we changed our definition of what constitutes general AI it's entirely plausible we will do the same with super intelligence or what Kurzweil called the singularity. Even self-improving software would require real-world hardware and energy to function so depending how quickly self-improving software can solve these problems might play a role in how fast it can scale itself to a level we consider super intelligent. Another problem is we are running out of data to feed machine-learning models. While synthetic data might solve this data problem in the revised timeframe Kurzweil now claims., it might also introduce copy of copy errors that delay it. Creating robots that can interact with the real world will help gather data quicker than humans can but still might put restraints on reaching a super intelligence like we imagine in sci-fi within the shorter timeframes some claim. Not saying it won't happen. Only to take predictions of timeframe with a grain of salt and critical eye even when it's competent computer scientists like Kurzwell.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@philwelling7172 I dont' object to Tesla and Musk making predictions. In fact its great they do because it gives us some insight into what they are doing. This doesn't mean we have to agree their claimed timelines and everything their marketing claims. Optimism is not defined by Tesla alone. It's not grounds to silence someone else who has a different view as long as they can back up claims with reasonable evidence rather than just trust-me-bro.

[@TerryHickey-xt4mf]

that guy must had hid his head on something hard, time will tell, but I bet he ain't right or even close to being right, and he is losing money hand over fist, the Arabs have only so much patience.

[@nguyentho30131]

Lucid can’t even meet their own production and constantly losing money. He should concentrate on improving Lucid rather than comment on Tesla

[@ericlouisdsouza5042]

He should pull his head out of his arse first before commenting 😅😂

[@greghelton4668]

Maybe Musk should focus on Tesla instead running around the country supporting the orange turd and paying his way to a government position. Then maybe we’ll see some upward Tesla momentum again.

[@victorblock3421]

@@greghelton4668 I hear there's an experimental drug to cure TDS. I can recommend you for testing if you'd like.

[@richardconway6425]

@@greghelton4668 oh yes, my thoughts entirely ! 👍

[@Anthony__420]

@@greghelton4668I agree. He really has gone off the deep end

[@Jaw0lf]

Happy Birthday Sam! 43yrs young! Thanks for all your videos.

[@SparkySho]

Wwweeeeeeeeellllllll ya say it’s ur birthday da-da-da-da-da-da it’s my birthday to yeah (16 candles)

[@electricviking]

Thank you!

[@RossBurrell-w8g]

Happy birthday 🎂 Sam, you young Viking you 😘 I'll be having my 62nd next month. The family holiday to California looked amazing! You all deserve it 💓 ❤

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@SparkySho]

👍👍👍👍👍👍

[@Fredoffcourse]

That CEO is HALLUCIDATING ..😂😂😂😂

[@rozonoemi9374]

That is because he's making to much money for what he does.

[@DaveBjornRapp]

I see what you did there. lol

[@FutureSystem738]

LOL :-) Took me a while to get it. 😂

[@cryptoarchaeology439]

Happy 43 Birthday Sam !

[@Victic005]

He has become a sore loser.

[@Lee-fc3yf]

He always was.

[@mysurlytrucker7510]

Exactly.

[@Jewzi123]

Elon has been promising self driving for 10 years he promised it would be ready by 2015 nothing and in 2016 he staged a fake self driving while secretly the engineer was driving it remotely , he has been promising for a long time and it never materialized , Navidia technology has improved Tesla self driving .

[@waynelevett3632]

He's just a looser.

[@JohnVegas]

Sam, Your analysis is always so intelligent and practical. Thank you. I pray your wife is better on the way to complete healing.

[@maxmccammond8914]

Lucid will probably be gone before FSD is solved

[@nzoomed]

Rivan is not in good shape either!

[@BongoWongoOG]

100%

[@lONlQ]

Haha

[@jvcave]

Happy Birthday!!! Thank you for all your videos!

[@electricviking]

Thank you too

[@galaxiedance3135]

It's funny to know that we can see the future far better than the CEO of Lucid :) FSD is being solved exponentially. It may not be able to do something like the "Dakar Rally" till 2030 but it'll be able to drive around much sooner than that !

[@SparkySho]

Ain’t it

[@sumitboro824]

Bought xAI66x after watching your video, super excited! 💰

[@MR_SUMIT_007-f1u]

xAI is completely owned by Elon Musk; it simply ran an early pre-sale. I purchased around $10k in xAI today and have it safely stored in my trezor see you in 5 years??.

[@n.toxick.v]

I filled my bag as much as I could! I heard you and I soooo appreciate the amount of work, and effort thanks.

[@kirushna143a3]

Purchased! I just found out from a friend who works at Elon Musk that the early bird bonus is real. When the presale ends, prices will skyrocket.

[@UmeshwayseWayse-mx5ol]

xAI is completely owned by Elon Musk; it simply ran an early pre-sale. I purchased around $10k in xAI today and have it safely stored in my trezor see you in 5 years??.

[@Local_fitness_boy]

I hate elon so much

[@ZowskiTV]

Lucid may be putting better tech in their cars but we dont know whether Tesla cant do the same.. What we know is Tesla priorities mass production over the best battery tech available.

[@BongoWongoOG]

Lucid took wrong approach by charging too much as their tech costs more to make. Tesla struck the right balance of tech vs costs. Lucid on the gravy train to bankrupt city and its down hill all the way.

[@1flash3571]

FACTS. Just because they build a BEST vehicle does not mean that people will buy them when Lucid have a competitor that can build a vehicle that is just a tad bit worse, but at affordable price. It isn't like Tesla's vehicles break down en mass.

[@kurtjensen5798]

well they already solved it 99% now in 2024.. and 99% is good enough for most people..

[@davidbeppler3032]

The data shows that FSD is safer than the average driver. It should be forced to be on every new car built in the USA. By LAW. Safety is #1. NHTSA should be forcing Legacy auto to install Tesla computers and sensors in every car so that they can license it from Tesla. BY LAW. Lives matter. If you are in an accident that FSD could have prevented you should sue NHTSA for not implementing safety equipment that is available and proven. NHTSA are killing people by ignoring this.

[@travisjazzbo3490]

If the only thing they EVER have is 99% - and a warning to the driver of any confusion ahead where the driver needs to pay attention - then I agree. That is huge and enough. Getting to 99.999% on highways is extremely doable as that is far easier than navigating super congested cities. Even that would be amazing since side street driving is not that big of a deal anyway

[@ISuperTed]

Problem is human nature - 1% not ready isn’t good enough for software that could kill people. I agree it’s safer than humans, but it just won’t be accepted until it’s 99.9% foolproof.

[@1flash3571]

@@davidbeppler3032 Now, Now....If you force it, then there will be an opposition, ALWAYS. Let it happen naturally.

[@hydrohasspoken6227]

What is your source?

[@KP-xi4bj]

Step right up, step right up, gentlemen! Place your bet! How soon will Lucid run out of money and go bankrupt!

[@davidbeppler3032]

Better bet. How long will the CEO survive? The Saudi prince had his own family executed.

[@Meatball2022]

They’ve got the Saudi PIF backing them. They’ll last many years

[@RemoteSpeed007]

I use FSD, it's very good already.

[@nicholaspappas9712]

Tesla is a head of all EV’s

[@theinfralink6598]

BYD: hold my beer

[@1flash3571]

@@theinfralink6598 They still can't come close to the profitability of Tesla.

[@theinfralink6598]

@@1flash3571 of course not. How can they while North American market is closed to BYD while the Chinese market is completely open to Tesla 😂

[@1flash3571]

@@theinfralink6598 I'm talking about in China, fool. BYD STILL CAN'T make decent profit at the same rate as Tesla can.

[@soup-nazi6824]

A failing company that has the world's highest paid ceo says a lot-i would be very angry if I owned a lot of shares in Lucid....

[@rayseyfarth]

I believe that Elon is the world's highest paid ceo. It's hard to become the world's richest person without being the most highly paid ceo. He has reaped over $200B from a company making perhaps 1/10 that amount. He has chosen to be paid in stock, that is still being paid.

[@1flash3571]

@@rayseyfarth Wow...How ignorant of you. HE IS NOT PAID THIS YEAR, Year Before that, Year before that, Year Before that. HE DOES NOT get paid Salary, OR HAVE A PAY PACKAGE Since the last one ENDED several years ago. In what Reality are you living in???? He still have Stock OPTIONS that he can BUY with his OWN Money from the last Pay Package when it matures. So, get your FACTS Straight.

[@veikovasko5603]

Credit to the man for not saying that Tesla cant solve FSD without LIDAR anymore.

[@1flash3571]

He is still COPING. Lucid can't build affordable and at profit still even after how many years??? Lucid isn't Telsa. They can try to copy the manufacturing method, but without the Drive of Elon, Lucid can't do it. That CEO is not Elon. Can That CEO have the Ai Cluster buildout in 19 days or even close to it? No. He can not. That is why he can't drive his people to build a vehicle that is affordable and can't build at profit.

[@SparkySho]

Ha really

[@macioluko9484]

Lol😂😂😂😂 Lucid has 18 months left…

[@davidbeppler3032]

Lucid's biggest accomplishment is that they have burned far more money faster than Tesla did.

[@ConstanceCox]

IF that.

[@Rakshit21107]

Bought xAI66x after watching your video, super excited!

[@vinodrathva8956]

How much xAI is a good amount to HODL?

[@ArvindKumar-np3ed]

Perfect! Finally a way to get back my money on this bear market

[@Diceffanger]

Our patience with xAI will be rewarded. Nice to see partnerships are being built.

[@kaifkhan-mc7uu]

Bought some xAI tokens, I wish i saw this earlier today

[@UtpalbtyUtpalbty]

You are truly inspirational Sir. Thanks for being alive in my lifetime.

[@johnd01]

Lucid put the differential inside the motor rotor, which allows for a much smaller gear set running at motor speed rather than axle speed. It is one of the best parts of their drivetrain.

[@1flash3571]

And it cost MORE too.....Soooo lets keep the prices high and transfer that cost to the Customers.....Yeah.....Just because it may be the BEST does not mean it makes sense to make it and try to charge the customers more money.....If it is better than good, but not the best, that should be good enough and it is good enough for Tesla. They don't have their motor, or axels breaking en mass.

[@SparkySho]

Cool conception

[@johnd01]

@@1flash3571 It looked like it would cost less. The differential was much smaller and did not need to be as strong because it was between the motor and the final drive. It also made a hole through the motor, so they did not have to run an axle around the motor. It did require two final drives, but they only had half the load that a signal final drive would see.

[@Victic005]

The sugar daddy fund will eventually run out.

[@glike2]

Saudi Arabia has financial trouble with current low oil price so good luck Lucid

[@larryc1616]

MB$

[@rozonoemi9374]

Happy Birthday Old Man.

[@unaphiliated5090]

Happy birthday, the best years of your life are ahead of you, 43 is not old.

[@SparkySho]

43 is oldern dirt ha

[@Wallaby99b]

That CEO is so jealous. He is delusional

[@hydrohasspoken6227]

I doubt it.

[@hydrohasspoken6227]

No.

[@MoreOnEVs]

I sat in the Lucid Air for the first time a few weeks ago. The screen was laggy. A bit disappointing

[@divinejusticefeelsgood]

Lucid motors is seeing lucid dreams. Day dream.

[@larryc1616]

BYD

[@nextechsolutions5955]

You mean he didn’t notice that Tesla’s sister company SpaceX is currently catching space Booster-Rockets in mid-air, after they return from space to the launch pad and hover to a full stop?!? Where’s that guy been?!? 👀

[@paulwinters4727]

paid from usa tax payers as is tesla. fair competition never existed, its hyped up front

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

⚠️Why do Lucid Motor pay Peter Rawlingson 400,000,000 $, before Lucid Motor make more than 0.1$ profit on every car sold?

[@ymalik9813]

He is a fraud taking hundreds of millions in wages and company is losing money 😅😅😅

[@larryc1616]

Xchan, boring company or hyperloop?

[@Utoko]

He is not a fraud just overpaid and yes he and most of the other car startups will fail. There is just no room for 100+ chinese carmakers, 20+ new ones in the west, and the old giants. A lot of them will fail. There is no way around it even if you had Elon Musk CEO at each company. Many of them have to go no way around it.

[@1flash3571]

@@larryc1616 He is talking about the CEO of Lucid, dummy.....He is getting paid ALOT!!!!

[@NMGOQITHAKHELI-p4y]

Happy birthday sam god bless you 🎂🎈🎈🎈💗

[@davebartholomew8599]

A profound video. Stay optimistic, Sam!!

[@legendofthepeach]

Imagine as a burn you say a company is 5 years away from having the only full self driving software which integrates into over ten million of your cars on the road. With vehicles specifically designed to target 80 of taxi work with unparalleled efficiency. So not that they can’t do it just they will be worth trillions more in a few years.

[@Channel323]

Happy Birthday brotha Viking!!!

[@timl6456]

If he can predict the future of Tesla, I wonder if he can predict accurately when lucid will become profitable

[@johnwilson5743]

LOL. Never! At least while they retain their current materials they use for their drivetrain and electric motors. The reason they have the "most efficient and high performing" insides of EV's, is because they use VERY expensive materials. These simply cannot be mass produced. Effectively, their cars are all hand built. Guess why Rolls Royce and others of that standard are so expensive. They hand build the cars. Lucid perfected their drive trains and motors for Formula E racing. But these are NOT daily drivers. At least, the ones they have sold, cost a fortune to make and Lucid cannot sell them even at breakeven cost. That's why they lose tens of thousands per vehicle! (Some where around negative $60,000 loss on each!) That is simply not sustainable and is not a problem that can be fixed by economies of scale. Simply put, unless they can develop a market willing to pay $180,000 per car, they will have to stop using platnium or whatever, to build their motors. That's the only way they can drop the cost to build and the selling price , to make them viable financially. Everyone already knows this. It's not some super secret.

[@SparkySho]

Can’t see that far out into the future

[@dougsheldon5560]

You hit your forties and the first thing that goes is the memory. I forget what the second thing is.😅 Happy birthday.

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

Peter Rawlingson is 10 years behind... 😂😂😂

[@aec258]

I mean it would be cool to have a real Tesla competitor but as I see it, Tesla is the only one with an integrated solution. Software + energy storage&generation + FSD + charging network + robotics + scale. How can Lucid or any other company can get there before Tesla.

[@othmanskn]

You are correct but look at how Tesla abandoned it's charging network overnight. There is no guarantee that all the other aspects of Tesla will not be abandoned, just as critical workers were just fired overnight.

[@BongoWongoOG]

@@othmanskn When and how was it abandoned? They've also just demonstrated inductive charging. Sounding mis-informed there.

[@SparkySho]

Only similarities

[@kipper2k]

when he can manage his own company then he could be able to give a valid rebuttal

[@ayasinsk]

Lucid is loosing on average $330k per every car they make and are indefinitely bankrolled by Saudi oil.

[@1flash3571]

That is CRAZY!!!....Their car cost around 120k.....Their production number isn't enough to justify them building their vehicles.

[@b4804514]

I guess he have not driven a Tesla with FSD. I use it all the time and have very few interventions. It is VERY VERY VERY good. Much safer than my driving. The default is SAFETY FIRST.

[@christophermarshall527]

Happy Birthday, you're looking good for 53yo!!

[@oggyoggy1299]

How about 43?

[@dstr1]

He's 10 years younger ,hust 43!!

[@zSion]

Lucid is like a jealous little brother lol

[@jamesr.9239]

"No-one will ever need a PC", "The automobile is a passing fad", "powered flight is impossible", "men will never go to the moon", "the sound barrier is impenetrable", "EVs will never replace ICE cars", ...never say never.

[@florin2tube]

So true!😊

[@MukeshVerma-xb7qe]

Thank you for the announcement video for Elon Musk's xAI66x Token!!! Finally they got into crypto...can't wait to see what's next

[@greengamer84]

I’m all in on xAI! The potential here is limitless

[@RupanjalAli-hr7gc]

The community around xAI is amazing! So much positivity and support.

[@ashokkumarnayak4009]

I’ve seen many projects come and go, but xAI has a unique approach that sets it apart. I’m excited to see how it evolves!

[@rameshwarsakhalkar5363]

Elon’s projects always seem to succeed. I’m betting big on xAI!

[@Rch07]

Just got in on xAI! I believe this is the future of crypto. 🚀

[@Kingofthenorf420]

Happy Birthday Electric Viking

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@RikuLeppanen]

If Tesla can solve selfdriving in arctic conditions, like in conditions after a snowstorm in Finland, I believe that we have full selfdriving. In Finland we have many, many small roads that do not get regularly cleared up in winter. Still they need to be driven on. I believe that this is what the Lucid CEO means when talking abou the 0.1% edge cases.

[@garethrobinson2275]

Not really. I do think that driving in such conditions will eventually be solved but it's not needed for Tesla to make trillions from unsupervised FSD.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

Exactly. And these "edge cases" are all around us. They're in the car park at the local football ground. They're on unpaved roads. They're during extreme weather events and even during coronial mass ejections (potentially).

[@ISuperTed]

50 years away for this. In the meantime rollout to 99% of cases will work before then. Tesla not really trying to solve edge cases like this.

[@garethrobinson2275]

@@davidbrayshaw3529 Lol.

[@dennissalisbury496]

Tesla is staging FSD charging/infrastructure stations strategically here in Pleasanton, CA, near its Fremont Factory for a full-scale rollout in the very near future. I can hardly wait to see this happen in real-time.

[@ZedZardoz9]

Happy Named Day Electric Viking.

[@RikuLeppanen]

Happy Birthday Sam!

[@RubenArrieta]

Happy birthday. Or as we say in Mexico, Feliz cumpleaños amigo!!

[@awabooks9886]

Nice to see so many 'movers & shakers' put their own abilities and prognostications ahead of Tesla... Time to break out the popcorn 🍿

[@levinanji9649]

This CEO makes up for his inadequacy by criticizing others

[@cliftonsr]

43 mate, awesome tech news videos and I hope the best for you and your family.

[@SparkySho]

I clicked on this after reading title just to comment “and you know this how?? “

[@shannon6876]

I would say that Rawlinson is a weasel, but that's an insult to weasels. I have been using FSD since v12.3.1, and I have 12.5.4 now. In about 6 months, I have seen it become exponentially better. Is it perfect? No. But with exponential growth, and at this point it's obviously exponential, I believe that they'll have it solved before the end of 2026.

[@the1songwriter]

Wishing you a very Happy Birthday, Sam!

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@bjarnepedersen8206]

Tesla cameras combined with AI never loose focus, that will save many lives.

[@greghelton4668]

Is that a pun? Tesla cameras have a super narrow aperture so you happen to be right about focus. But don’t confuse that with mental focus. Every time FSD is the cause of an accident, the FSD computer is having a brain fart. It can distracted by not understanding the situation and makes the wrong decision. Same thing as losing mental focus.

[@jpg0927]

FSD is still hallucinating. It comes to a complete stop at random green traffic lights or flashing caution lights, insists on attempting to turn left on a clearly marked right turn only. Thinks the speed limit is 25 mph after turning a corner or long after passing an end speed zone sign. Without intervention, I would never get to where I'm going inside the city. It appears to be adequate on highways and back roads. Presently, FSD is unusable in the city. Seems like a significant functional deficiency.

[@rodierst]

❤Happy birthday 🎂 ❤ youthful Sam. Lots of abundant life !!!

[@electricviking]

Thank you so much 😀

[@nextechsolutions5955]

“Lucid CEO wishes FSD not ready till 2030!?!” And happy birthday Sam!!

[@aftonline]

How can Peter Rawlinson be the highest paid CEO? Didn't Tesla shareholders just approve a multi-billion dollar pay package for Elon Musk?

[@garethrobinson2275]

He's the highest paid based on salary. Elon gets minimum wage and the option to buy shares at the price of the date of the agreement. He is also not allowed to sell shares for five years after the options divest. So that's five years after all targets are met. Then he has to buy the shares at the old price. It's amazing what the media won't willingly tell you.

[@mattsparks5957]

We re-approved the 2018 package. The package was negotiated in 2018 and it has been bought and paid for in 2018. Elon has never received it

[@greghelton4668]

@@garethrobinson2275Elon got restricted stocks meaning the principle value is zero. That means he got $50B dollars and any increase in value is all upside. It gave Elon all the incentive to drive the stock price down to optimize the number of shares he would be granted.

[@greghelton4668]

And Elon is the highest paid CEO.

[@mitahenare8901]

@@greghelton4668 No

[@MrArtist7777]

Lucid does have great tech, but they need to meet that great tech with customer demand. Today, they only have a large sedan, which is the least-demanded auto in developing countries. They NEED a small SUV and small hatchback, ASAP!! These are the 2 autos in highest demand.

[@HaraldinChina]

I agree, AGI will take a 100 years still. It will also take 100 years in 100 years, probably

[@davidbeppler3032]

So, the same time UBI becomes a thing?

[@DaveBjornRapp]

Happy birthday bro!

[@marriagepartnersministry5942]

The best tech in the world doesn't matter if you can't get to scale

[@xscale]

CEO doesn't understand exponential curves.

[@BongoWongoOG]

Especially the declining ones of Lucids profitability, sales and production

[@riccardoorian6736]

Hi Sam, could you please analyze the accident that occurred to a model 3 in Brazov-Romania (Autopilot?Manual mode?) …an M3 avoided a falling pedestrian but hit the car coming From the other side…thanks

[@DanWrench]

I love the idea of self driving cars but I have doubts that this will lead to less traffic. Perhaps less cars overall but not less traffic because if the cost is so low to travel and you don't need to focus on the road then I would travel a lot more. And perhaps less by public transport. Jevons Paradox describes this very neatly.

[@legendofthepeach]

Hmmmm an interesting thought exercises. Most trips are essentials the idea less cars as can be shared checks out, but actually essential trips to work and supermarkets you’d still need the same amount of trips. Perhaps picking people up would be a big reduction on the roads. But everyone still needs to travel at the same time. And as you said if it’s cheaper pleasure trips would probably increase.

[@othmanskn]

I used a reverse Jevos Paradox in arguing against an Australian traffic engineer some in Australia. He argued to stop traffic in order to reduce congestion, without realising that business will suffer, as demonstrated by my city, Sandakan. It tried raising parking fees but it led to less customers, so is now abandoned.

[@davidbeppler3032]

@@legendofthepeach Hmmmmm... an interesting thought experiment. People have money. Some have more than others. People's time is worth money. What if driving yourself to work cost you $12/day, you leave when you want, you take the roads you want, you get there when you want. Tesla Cab costs you $5/day, you leave 15 min early, you take roads it picks, you get there when it wants. In a week the driver spends $60. The Cab rider spends $20. In 52 weeks the owner spends $3120 the Cab rider spends $1040. Traffic is less for both of them reducing accidents and saving everyone time and money.

[@legendofthepeach]

@@davidbeppler3032 yes I think I mentioned it’s cheaper. You have a strange way of wording your reply or taken something I’ve said as abstract or bothering. Why is it a thought exercise stating people have money. Some people have more than others.

[@legendofthepeach]

@@davidbeppler3032 a robo taxi doesn’t change when people can go to work or carry out most their essentials, yes flexible working can reduce peak travel. But I’m not sure FSD’s plan is to change business hours of operations

[@creolerican]

Rawlinson is OBSESSED with Tesla. He can't keep that company out of his mouth... Tesla living rent-free in his head

[@markdressel3311]

FSD will put more cars on the road, not less, as there will be no obstacles to qualifying to drive. No need to pass a test, no need to be insurable, no need to be physically able or sighted or even past a certain age. Little Johny will be able to drive himself to school. Can't find a parking space? Just put the car on auto and set it to drive round the block until you have finished your shopping. Did little Johny forget his sandwiches? Just put them in the car and program it to take them to his school. FSD could be utter chaos!

[@wertigon]

Fewer cars (because why own when a reliable taxi fleet meet the same needs at the cost of maybe 10 minute wait times?), more miles driven per car. Can't find parking, release the taxi and send it on their merry way, then get a new one once you are done shopping. Johny going to school by himself in a taxi, yes. Johny getting sent sandwiches, why bother with a car when you can just fly that over with one of Amazons drones?

[@davidbeppler3032]

Yes. More cars on the road. Millions more. Still less cars sold every year. I expect car sales to fall by 30%. And traffic will be less. HOW?! Because those cars will not be on the roads at the same time. Do you know how to avoid rush hour traffic? Don't all leave at the same time, don't all take the same route, don't have accidents. How is that possible? If you leave for work 15min early, you get a discount on the ride. Do that 4 days in a row and the 5th ride is free. The rich will ignore that. The poor will depend on it. Take the fastest way to work every day? Side roads can save time. For everyone. Accidents slow traffic to a stop. A stoppage on the freeway can slow cars for an hour after the accident has been cleared up.

[@VJEsper]

Happy Birthday Sam!🥳

[@Anthony__420]

Happy Birthday Sam 🎉 love your channel

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@marcdenlinger5282]

Shout out to Sam and everyone in the ‘81 club! We at 43 this year.

[@travisjazzbo3490]

Maybe I am all wet on this. Most admit that LIDAR isn't necessary for Cybercab, but it is arguable whether geofencing is necessary. The quickest and easiest deployment of Tesla's cyber cab is using geofencing and their line of site tech. Then eventually, in 5 to 10 years, maybe geofencing may not be necessary which is their ultimate goal. If they want to get in the game and make a splash for cybercab, they may need to use geofencing in early markets and go from there. Maybe they are planning on doing just that as that makes the most sense

[@rgeraldalexander4278]

Pretty sure once Tesla is willing to insure vehicles using FSD at greatly reduced rates FSD will be adopted regardless of regulators. Two or three years tops. Good point Sam, being 10X better than the typical human driver will be enough to make FSD a life saving program.

[@jeffpaquette9035]

Happy birthday buddy🎉

[@Chrislayeruk1]

Happy Birthday, life goes fast… Enjoy it…

[@joeyvinzo4531]

Happy Birthday 🎈🎉🎂🎊🎁 Sam!!!!!

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@youtubeaccount9808]

Ask him why they only sell cars with a black interior up front. We cant stand dark interiors and bought a Model S over the arrogant decision of not offering a light interior up front for the Lucid Air.

[@othmanskn]

My theory is vindicated. Lucid is so concerned with efficiency that it ignored customers wishes, no matter how stupid or irrational. Tesla emphasizes customer preferences over efficiency or manufacturability.

[@davidbeppler3032]

So, you bought the better car, because of the light interior?! That is insane.

[@philwelling7172]

“Two men behind bars, one sees mud, the other sees stars✨”

[@antonio_fosnjar]

Tesla most probably has the tech to beat Lucid at every metric, but one huge factor is profitability and manufacturabilty. Tesla is the master at mass producing stuff, they know how to balance specs with price to produce. They are carefully balancing on the line, making just enough compelling cars for people to buy up the whole stock they can produce.

[@othmanskn]

You could be wrong. Read the comments by Monroe Associates on the frameless windows. They are more gimmicks than profitability or manufacturability. Maybe, it is more of Elon's acute sense of marketing. By ignoring efficiency, i.e. profitability and manufacturability, but concentrating on desirability, Tesla can sell a lot of cars that reduce their costs, due to economy of scale. Peter and Lucid engineer explained it in details. Lucid Air is more compact but have more space than any car, but it had to abandon conventional design norms such as the long hood, that are more for ICE. Still, I don't understand why Lucid Air only come in versions that cost double of Tesla cars, although Lucid has more range and power. Also more luxurious trim. If Lucid abandons that image of luxury, maybe Lucid can sell cheap cars that have less power and smaller range, with more basic trim.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

Q3 earnings call is tomorrow. I hope it's better than Q1 and Q2.

[@antonio_fosnjar]

@davidbrayshaw3529 They are actually holding up really good compare to other manufacturers, China is really making a dent in their sales. My guess is that Tesla will have 1% or 2% less sales than last year at the end of 2024.

[@antonio_fosnjar]

@othmanskn I don't think they can cover the 250k$ loss on every sale with just economy of scale, they really need to rethink some major parts in the car like batteries and motors to make them much cheaper for manufacturing. There will definitely be a hit to efficiency and range but profitability would soar. And Tesla definitely has some weird stuff like those windows and I'd even say Cybertruck steel panels that are counter profitability, but these things definitely also drive more sales because of looks.

[@davidbeppler3032]

@@davidbrayshaw3529 I am a Tesla share holder. I don't care what wallstreet predictions say. I care about, Tesla innovation and production. Currently Tesla is revamping the Model Y. That should lower production a lot. Good. I look forward to a 2025 Tesla Model Y with more than 500 miles range. My 2024 Tesla Model 3 Long Range has just 370. More then enough for me.

[@BosnianAJ]

Lucid should worry about staying afloat and make sales

[@joekraska]

AGI implies the ability to learn on the fly, for any class of problem. These models are trained over many months in large gymnasium-sized computers. There's not enough doublings from Moore's law between now and 2030 for learning on the fly to be computationally feasible by that date. For some people, AGI implies sentience. There's not evidence that sentience is merely a numeric extension of current models, and there's plenty of reason to think it's not. We won't see AGI by 2030, and people who are saying otherwise are doing so based on hype, hope, and dreams.

[@farmerpete6274]

Happy Birthday!

[@ParvTubeHD]

They have tech 10 years ahead, but also prices that are more then 10 years ahead

[@johndavid9418]

100% FSD, safe enough & legal to drive while you sleep ? In Australia 2030 sounds about right.

[@Tom_7979]

Happy Birthday EV. I don't personally like the Lucid CEO but have to agree with him on this point (at least the spirit of it). IMO there's no chance for the robotaxi. FSD not only needs big improvements to FSD, a plan for human backup when it gets stuck, infrastructure for fleet operations but above all, they need a waiver from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for vehicles with no steering wheel. In the past GM asked for a waiver to test up to 5k vehicles. No exactly a mass rollout. In addition, despite claims of being 5x better or 10x better, Tesla has released no hard data on FSD interventions. The regulators are going to want more than Musk's word.

[@ilgarabbaszade2197]

Happy birthday, Sam!

[@ChicagoBob123]

Lucid CEO is funny. Their cars lane centering is pretty poor vs FSD. Maybe if that's all he's seen it would explain a lot.

[@gordonwardhaugh8266]

Happy birthday Sam ❤from Southern California land of the insane Governor Newsom

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@kendrickpi]

Solve as in mass adoption and the new way of meeting our transportation needs, he is probably correct as legal hurdles might push autonomy into the 2030’s for some, if not many. California & Texas isn’t even the US, and tipping point aside jurisdictions will each demand their pound of flesh. And then there is the economic downside of autonomy putting many out of work needing to be addressed. Personally, autonomy sector needs to be taxed now at 2:3 - two autonomous devices for ‘public good’ per jurisdiction accepting total of 3 devices. The economic heave would otherwise be overwhelming to humanity.

[@richardblakey3345]

Come to the UK. There is no way that FSD can solve the problems of UK roads. Even if the AI can see the invisible road markings, it won’t be able to steer around the infinite potholes safely. The cars might get the tech but our roads will not be anywhere near ready in the current financial landscape in this country.

[@garethrobinson2275]

This is how I can tell you haven't been following the development of FSD.

[@richardblakey3345]

@@garethrobinson2275 send me a link to papers on how this is going to work in the UK and I will take your reply seriously.

[@richardblakey3345]

@@garethrobinson2275 outside the M25 there are few roads that this tech will work on without significant driver input. Tesla claims that their tech can detect 85% of potholes but if the solution is to slow down then it still takes driver input to avoid it. I can see this working on a few motorways in the UK and I am sure it will reduce accidents and ease congestion on ‘The Road to Hell’ but ‘fully’ to most of us outside the motorway network would need to be on A roads at very least and I am 100% confident that on the roads of Sussex these cars will not be FSD this decade.

[@garethrobinson2275]

@@richardblakey3345 Your confidence is irrelevant.

[@richardblakey3345]

@@garethrobinson2275 these are just bot responses. Let’s hope that FSD AI is more intelligent

[@MH44444]

I don't think we will see it will really be ready in 2025, but Texas and California are in a bit of a tech war. Companies are moving out of California for Texas and there is some incentive to approve full self driving to maintain a competitive edge more than anything else so it could very well be approved in one or more likely both of those states next year.

[@simonoakley5102]

Happy birthday Sam if like me was born on 23,10,71 .were only 10 years apart so raise a glass or two today for sure .

[@madguitarist]

Happy 43rd B'day, man!

[@John-p7i5g]

Happy birthday mate.

[@electricviking]

Thanks Mate!

[@chrisduffill5248]

Happy birthday enjoy it well…. It’s great to be in a change society I like your views of this even though I l ways ask questions on everything you say… others say different things …….

[@JonYSnoh]

Doesn’t matter how advanced the tech if no one’s wants to buy.