Preston Jacobs Explains the Difference Between a Good ASOIAF Theory Vs a Bad One Part 1

Ice and Fire theories are always floating around and most of them are bad, so I decided to ask Preston, the theory guy, what he thinks makes a good ASOIAF/Game of Thrones theory interesting.
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House of the Dragon is an American fantasy drama television series created by George R. R. Martin and Ryan J. Condal for HBO. It is a prequel to the television series Game of Thrones and is based on Martin's 2018 novel Fire & Blood. Set two hundred years before the events of Game of Thrones, the series chronicles the beginning of the end of House Targaryen, the events leading up to the Targaryen civil war, known as the "Dance of the Dragons", and the war itself. The main contenders are Houses Targaryen, Hightower, Stark, Baratheon, Arryn and Velaryon.
Game of Thrones is an American fantasy drama television series created for HBO by David Benioff and D. B. Weiss. Based on the fantasy novel series, A Song of Ice and Fire by George R.R. Martin. The series is set on the fictional continents of Westeros and Essos, and interweaves several plot lines with a large ensemble cast. The first narrative arc follows a civil conflict among several noble houses for the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms; the second covers the attempts to reclaim the throne by the exiled last scion of the realm's deposed ruling dynasty; the third chronicles the rising threat of the impending winter, the legendary creatures and fierce peoples of the North.
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[@shayanlostflash]

How about danny is rhaegar cross gender clone

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

....i'm listening

[@shayanlostflash]

Mostly a fun idea but funny enogh after listening to "page of lies" videos by preston which was great but conclusion seems wrong to me, i mean what different make Danny born in tyrosh or just be random kid (if targryan cant hatch dragon random dude in dragon stone whould? ) or you really think viserys is that dumb or even slightly care if danny wasnt her sister? and why Danny have dream of Rhaegar constantly And how rhaegar mother get pregnant after many years and why they think rhaegar is prince who was promised. Then i found out george have two story (elden ring and nightflyers) that a male character actually is a clone/"reborn" of female character and in elden ring male version f*cking everyone to have magic babies.i really think some Danny vision from childhood actually from Rhaegar like house with big red door is red keep but lemon gate is in dorne at summerhall (which Rhagar love to visit) william darry is old and young at same time beacuse both memory exist in Danny head and that reason she must remember. This part just guess i think Rhaegar is ultimate villain his soul/consciousness somewhere exist and he try to steal Danny body like varamyr try stealing wilding girl or bran with hodor or 1000 world story glassflower I know it's kind of dumb but why not we dont have the book f*ked why not😂

[@shayanlostflash]

Can you wake the dead, girl? Your brother Rhaegar was the last dragon, and he died on the Trident

[@SuperWindsage]

being frank, Varys being a blackfyre makes sense cause the why the fuck does he care about any of this, him supporting the Claim of his nephew makes the most sense. it make THE most sense.@@OfficialRedTeamReview

[@Sletty73]

Somehow, Rhaegar returned.

[@JimRFF]

"There were times - not many, but a few - when Jon Snow was glad he was a bastard." GRRM's first words in the first Jon chapter in book 1... Jon's whole thematic arc is about accepting his own definition of his identity ("He grinned. "You *are* the bastard, though"... "Let me give you some counsel, bastard," Lannister said. "Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you.")... GRRM is a philosophical existentialist, who rejected the idea of pre-determined moral destiny in favor of forging one's own idea of their place in the world.... R+L=J is important because Jon will learn of his Targaryen heritage *and choose to reject it* because he's Jon Snow

[@kekero540]

“Oh I’m not a bastard I’m a rape baby yipeee….” John snow, winds of winter 2134

[@nont18411]

So, it’s simply “I don’t want it”.

[@JimRFF]

@@nont18411 sadly... yes xD

[@alicelaybourne1620]

Disagree. He predicated the TV show on the show runners being able to figure out his mother by reading the books. I doubt it will be of such little significance to the story line. Also, that would be bad writing. Or how about the inner turmoil of discovering your whole identity (that you have now accepted) is a lie.

[@JimRFF]

@@alicelaybourne1620 I'm not sure that I understand the point you're making... how exactly would Jon Snow embracing his own identity and rejecting the external standard set by someone else telling him "actually no, your coming-of-age journey and the person you thought you were becoming this whole time doesn't matter, because you're actually the Most Special Boy Ever and you need to be the King" qualify as bad writing? If anything, *accepting* THAT seems to me to be bad writing, because Jon accepting that he is a Targaryen would be rejecting the "inner turmoil of discovering your whole identity" as you put it... I think, and I could be wrong which is why I actually would like you to elaborate on what you were getting at, you seem to be conflating the idea of a character rejecting a plot with the idea of that plot not being relevant or valid... but characters are allowed to say 'no,' GRRM doesn't believe in Destiny as a divine moral status, he writes people who make their own decisions... because he's an existentialist, which was my original point.

[@dee-taylor]

R+L=J goes back to the old geocities and vbulletin ASOIAF forums long before AFFC was released. It's one of the (if not THE) oldest theories in the fandom.

[@manband20]

I can't help but wonder if Howland Reed is a byproduct of the original three book structure from when the series was first pitched to George's agent. Jon had some mysterious parentage that only one man knows the truth of and if R+L really does =J, he can make the big reveal when Dany and her amy invaded in Book 2. When everything changed and the series became seven books, Howland needed to be pushed further and further back until he became relevant to the plot again. Now we, the fans, literally grasp at the shortest straws imaginable to explain why the man who saved Ned's life and was his so-called "best friend" hasn't done shit in the whole book series yet.

[@autje1970]

Excellent point.

[@Thunderous333]

Yeah realistically Jon wouldve known his parentage by like, the first book/when he almost rides to help Robb.

[@manband20]

@@Thunderous333 I think he should have been told around the time when Bran and his bunch went North of the Wall. Howland could have accompanied his kids north, went missing when Jon escaped the wildlings (maybe he went out to fight or cause a distraction so the others could flee, reappear in the aftermath of the Battle of Castle Black, and meet with Stannis and Jon as they negotiate with Mance disguised as Rattleshirt. Have Howland do some grand gesture when Stannis demands he bow to the King and then have him say he only bows "To the true king of Westeros" or something like that. Then there's two (eventually three) parties who know about Jon's heritage that could exploit him or rival him: Stannis and the wildlings. The Watch will learn soon enough and all eyes will be on the soon-to-be Lord Commander as to what he does next. Bow to Stannis? Grant land to the wildlings? Stay at the Wall. Maybe the coup is actually an assassination attempt by Stannis to remove a rival who refused his offer to be Lord of Winterfell. Maybe Mance wanted to incite a rebellion at the Wall. Maybe the Watch see him as a threat because he's dragging them into his war a la the Night King. Lots of possibilities open up if Jon learns the truth earlier in the story and it could have added so much political intrigue behind the scenes as war comes to the North.

[@robertovaldivia1573]

Jon's story is so obviously a response to "the chosen one" or "the true heir" trope. Regardless of who his father is his story is that of rejecting the worlds label of him. Hes never been considered a Stark or legitimate in anyway. Yet of all the Stark children he is the true Northman. Ghost, his weirwood visions, joining the wildilings, becoming Lord Commander. Yeah, becoming a Targaryan and rejecting his Northern roots makes total sense. /s

[@Mwezi828]

It's not really an Easter egg when so much of the lore has been building up Targaryen conflict (the Dance of Dragons, the Blackfyre Rebellions). Those conflicts and the weight placed on them are clearly meant to echo and foreshadow conflicts in the current story,. When you say it only has emotional significance to Dany - Dany's a fucking main character. I think that's enough. Even with R+L=J, to say that it's pointless show's a poor understanding of storytelling. First of all, even if it was just for significance to Jon, that is enough. Jon is a main character: his crypt dream has been a recurring theme, There will be enough emotional weight for Jon alone. But to say "Dany never even knew her brother' is mad disingenuous, we all know how kuch she yearns for home and family. But more than all of this it is a fantasy story: Jon being the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna is significant in terms of the prophecy. It will surely play into him solving the white wlaker issue. THe fact that you can say that's irrelevant...wow

[@Seelenverheizer]

pretty sure young griff will pull out Blackfyre at one point and yeah there likely wont be a reveal to the public but there will be enought hints to how Varys might actually be his uncle and stuff.

[@HussainIgg8]

Daenerys = Dayne-heiress, with the Areo Hotah heading to High Hermitage chapter seeing a random house with a flaky red door in a lemon grove 🤷‍♂️

[@autje1970]

Unfortunately this doesn't talk about 'Quentyn Is Alive' and how that enhances the story, either narratively or thematically 😛(hint: it doesn't)

[@Undefined14]

It throws a dragon sized wrench into the Dornish Master Plan. His mission was engineered to be a diversion, and to fail. It's a cautionary tale about hubris, thinking you can have perfect control of everything. No matter how good you think you are, you're going to mess up at least a little bit. Doran will be totally caught off guard by it, and it'll ruin everything.

[@gustavoferroni2693]

Preston is being short sighted. L+R=J would create a conflict between Jon and Stannis, Jon and Dany, Jon and Jon Con/Aegon, Jon and Cersei/Lannisters - all these conflicts would get in the way of preparing for the real war, (with the Others) which is Jon's mission. The twist is that Jon always wanted to know his mom and to have a nice parentage. Now that he has grown over it (he chose to be lord commander and not Jon Stark) this issue will come back to bit him in the ass.

[@johnnyskinwalker4095]

interesting. yea

[@claymusicoff5663]

I mean… they don’t really have to. Jon joined the nights watch.

[@theelectricprince8231]

@@claymusicoff5663 then dies and comes back to life, fufilling his vows. Nah, it's going to cause some serious problems

[@ghoulishfool]

Is it obvious to anyone else how much Preston secretly hates Ice and Fire? Obviously I’m kidding (or half-kidding), but I get the feeling that Preston almost dislikes just how much he likes ASOIAF; akin to a guilty pleasure, of sorts. Listening to him over the years, Preston seems to value a tightly written plot over a character’s inner journey. It’s no secret George is a “character-first writer”, so his plot does tend to grow exponentially or meander for the sake of his character’s story. So I can’t help but think that when George introduces these “elements in the story that are useless” (as Preston calls it), Preston cringes at it because, in his eyes, it over-complicates an already overcomplicated plot/story. I guess it depends on what kind of reader you are, but as a character-first reader I really don’t mind it all too much, if at all.

[@MiddleEarthGirl75]

When you have to wait for SO long for a continuation of the story, you have a LOT of time to think about what has been written so far, thus have growing criticisms (and theories) and 'here's what I would have done" stuff. The books are literally Preston's living. And as we know, sometimes we get to the point where you feel like your job has become mundane, lol

[@ghoulishfool]

@@MiddleEarthGirl75Exactly! And this almost makes me dread the release of Winds. People have been speculating, theorizing and reanalyzing the books for so long now that I can’t help but feel that people are going to be incredibly disappointed in the final product since they have this inflated, impossible view of what the book should be. I feel bad for people who derive so much meaning from one book or series, and that’s why it’s important to have a healthy variety of books you adore. Otherwise, you’re stuck making 12 years worth of improbable at best to absolute dogshit fan theories that bear so much resemblance to a 4chan shitpost that it might as well be one.

[@MiddleEarthGirl75]

@@ghoulishfool I agree. I read a variety of fantasy - Tolkien, Terry Brooks, Robert Jordan... It's true...people are likely to be disappointed in the result, which might be one of the reason why George is taking so long. All of a sudden he has this books series that has exploded because of the show, and vloggers like Preston talking about it so much and in so much detail that it's probably an enormous amount of pressure to try and live up to the hype that has been created. Plus he has written it so intricately with so many characters/Houses, truth, lies, rumors, different perspectives etc that it might have gotten away on him. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes to be honest.

[@doghat1619]

I feel like when you're such a big fan of something, you inevitably start to dislike parts of it. Only if you're a casual fan would you still think it's perfect.

[@CheeseCrumbs00]

​@@ghoulishfool Yeah for real, its gone on for so long that the theories people come up at this point are with are so self serving that it becomes their favourite character doing this or doing that, with no basis in the reality of the text. I'm with you, I want winds because I want to see what happens to Jaime and how his fathers death continues to shape him as a character. Or to see the evil mischief that Tyrion will create. I want to know if Aegon will break under the pressure of his kingship or if Davos gets to return to his wife and remaining sons.

[@captainziggy82]

A LOT of characters would care about R+L=J… I disagree with Preston heavy on this one lol

[@ahmadazem4167]

Who? Jon I guess and who exacrly

[@weslleyfj]

@@ahmadazem4167Daenerys and those who surround her, as he would be one more to claim what she sees as her throne, Aegon for the same reason, the Martells, as he's the son of the man who cheated on one of them. Carsei, if she's still on the throne. Lady Stoneheart, as he's no longer Ned's bastard, and she mistreated him for no reason. Every Stark still alive, the Northmen, the Free Folk, Stannis' cast, Varys, Littlefinger. I mean, the list of relevant characters who'd care about R+L=J is way bigger than those who wouldn't.

[@rimskyrichard8651]

R+ L = J has so much significance though. It would emotionally matter to john, and lady stonehart. If the world knows about it, it changes dynamics hes had with other characters like Sansa who her whole life she believed was a bastard, Stannis who believes hes the righful ruler of Westeros. Theres also the whole story significance, of ice and fire.

[@bearforfun]

r+l=j Doesn't make John legitimate with Young Griff, he's still an illegitimate child

[@Longshanks1690]

6:37 As a proponent of that theory, it actually changes a lot about him. If we assume that Varys is a Blackfyre and Griff is his nephew and/or Illyrio’s son by Serra, then it gives a definitive explanation as to what Varys’ motivations are: he’s doing this for his family. Both to undo ancestral wrongs and also to ensure that Griff and his children don’t have to scavenge for food like he’s had to. That’s the narrative Varys tells himself, with the simpler explanation being that he’s motivated to replace the current power brokers in Westeros and supplant them as the true power in the realm. And he convinces himself that he’s better for the realm with the narrative he told Kevan, that Griff has had to fight for what he has and will be a better King for it unlike all the others who’ve been handed it in one way or another. How much of this is true and how much is his self-interest talking? Who knows. The important point is that it emphasises that Varys in attempting to be different than all the other Westerosi families is just like them - using family politics to advantage his own and using younger family members as pawns in the game he’s playing. For all his ostensibly noble intentions, Varys has to be no different than all the others if he’s to even have a hope at beating them. Because if that’s not the case… then what is Varys’ endgame? Why does he want a random boy to become King for seemingly no justifiable reason? Just to have a pawn of his own making? I guess but I cannot help but feel it adds so much depth and weight to his character in what he’s doing if he and Griff are Blackfyres, because it changes Varys into someone doing it for what seem like the right reasons but also exposes that he’s no different to the people he’s seeking to replace at the same time. I really think it adds a lot to his character and isn’t just some throwaway side attribute that wouldn’t matter. Cos at least Varys would have this motivation, unlike Littlefinger who makes absolutely no sense motivation wise no matter what way you cut it. 😂

[@convictgames3895]

Littlefinger makes sense he's jaded by the nobles because he's seen as Lesser even tho he's more capable than almost all the nobility just because of his birth he plans on showing them all that birth is nothing and shouldn't matter

[@Longshanks1690]

@@convictgames3895 Ok… but what does that have to do with the actions he’s over the course of the series? If he’s just motivated by proving he’s better than everyone, he rose to be Master of Coin, a Kingmaker for Joffrey and the Lord Protector of the Vale as well as the - though basically only titular - Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Lord of Harrenhal. So job done, right? Well, no, because all that only seems to be phase one. The problem is that no one can figure out for the life of them what phases two, three or the endgame are supposed to be.

[@maxwell_j_R]

​@@Longshanks1690job done, except he also wants Sansa.. .. except he is possibly trying to marry her off?!? .. or maybe not job done because he wants to actually change history (a united North+Riverlands+Vale via Queen Sansa), not just be a footnote (helped secure power for Lannisters for a unified Seven Kingdoms).

[@convictgames3895]

@Longshanks1690 I think his plan is to be a absolute king he's Lord of the Riverlands and he plans on having the vale and north through Harry and Sansa with the vale being the only one with tons of food and a huge army he's holding food and buying up debts everywhere when winter sets in and the iron bank coming to collect debts he'll be the only one with food,gold and solders the lords of the realm will figure out he's there only chance at survival and have to accept whatever he wants of them despite him coming from dirt

[@SuperWindsage]

ahh my good person, let me educate you about the power of spite. it is all the resolve you need till the end of your days.@@Longshanks1690

[@bshaddo]

Howland Reed won’t even send his own men to help the Starks. He’s not personally going to KL and somehow becoming the Pope despite being Jewish. If the High Sparrow is up to something nefarious, he’s still an actual Septon acting on someone else’s behalf. My vote goes to the Martells or the Hightowers.

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

Preston would love this comment haha

[@mappingshaman5280]

I love the idea that Howland Reed is somehow Jewish XD

[@thelateescapist8266]

This is by far my favorite comment on this video! 😂👏🏾

[@thelateescapist8266]

​@@mappingshaman5280 He's Jewish in the sense that as a man of The North he worships the old gods rather than The Seven.

[@limbus66]

I think anyone trying to read the high sparrow's motivations and identity as anything beyond blowback from the lannisters' excesses leading up to and during the war of the five kings is missing the point of the story. The movement exists because Joffrey beheaded a man on the steps of Baelor's sept and Tywin sent gregor clegane to rape, murder and burn everything in sight. The idea that it's actually just one highborn lord's personal revenge quest fucking sucks.

[@helenrose5383]

Catelyn will care about R+L=J.

[@AbiShoukathAliA]

How

[@logancarlile8895]

@@AbiShoukathAliAare you joking?

[@anothermilkshake]

Stoneheart is gonna have a deep reflective moment over how they treated their adopted child and make amends.

[@AbiShoukathAliA]

@@anothermilkshake instead of getting revenge and getting back Sansa and arya

[@Godzilla00X]

She probably piss and moan Ned didn't tell then go back to bullying grunts in the Lannister army

[@kyleholmes8230]

Jon Con's whole motivation is his love for Rhaegar and his obligation to his son. Jon Snow being revealed as his son might be why GRRM made up the character of Jon Con. Someone has to care. I dont buy into the theory, im just playing devils avocado.

[@JimRFF]

I don't know if it was intentional or a typo, but "devils avocado" is absolutely fantastic xD

[@kyleholmes8230]

@@JimRFF I literally can't help but to make a joke of some kind. I'll get help when it becomes a problem IRL.

[@Galero15]

Preston can be really fucking annoyingly obtuse sometimes. The guy is so far up his own ass

[@Seelenverheizer]

it might be mostly there for prophecy purposes and for Jon to reject this part if him.

[@fabianbinder3681]

I’ll totally steal devil’s avocado. 😂

[@slash903]

A theory/twist is only really good if it has significance to the characters. Most fan theories/hopeful twists only have significance to us. Those can be fun, but they're not too meaningful.

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

Thats a good point

[@lol-hy4mk]

Good theories include unnecessary incest

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

100%

[@tahahisham772]

​@@OfficialRedTeamReview But incest can't be unnecessary

[@Young.Supernovas]

R+L=J absolutely could have a huge effect on the narrative, and even if it didn't, I'd argue that it has thematic significance. Even if the characters never learn it and it's only revealed to the reader, it still has thematic relevance.

[@MrJakewray]

I feel like it adds more thematic significance of Jon is a bastard

[@autje1970]

It has thematic significance, it has political significance, but I think it will most of all have magic significance, with Jon being a child of ice (Stark) and fire (Targaryen).

[@theelectricprince8231]

him saying that has no significance is the most clueless statement.

[@Young.Supernovas]

I get what Preston is saying about Rhaegar returning not having a meaningful emotional payoff with most of the existing characters... but c'mon some people would give a fuck. Dany would give a fuck, Cersei knew Rhaegar, Jamie knew Rhaegar... So I do get his point I just don't think he phrased it in quite the right way. I agree that it would not make a lot of narrative sense.

[@El_Descarriado]

Howland Reed = The Shrouded Lord's horse???????????

[@LilPrezzy36]

Good joke! Good joke! Feel proud of that one!

[@traviswright2648]

Yo he's cooking something.😊

[@Ardenator1]

We're letting the guy who thinks Quentyn is alive lecture us on what makes a bad theory? 😂

[@Longshanks1690]

The only criteria that makes sense to judge a theory by is whether it makes the story better or at least makes you look at it/a particular thing or character in a new and interesting way you’d never considered before. An example that sticks out in my mind was someone who thought Jon was the son of Ashara Dayne and was going to journey south to claim Dawn for himself, and my question has always been… why? Why would he do that? Why does he want to do that? What purpose would that serve the story? Because that then gets to the heart of all bad theories, which often have good intentions - it’s just about seeing something cool. This is especially true in Star Wars theories, where it’s not about something interesting that changes the story, it’s just about seeing something cool from the lore that rewards you as a mega-fan but doesn’t actually do anything beyond that. And I get it, who doesn’t want to be rewarded for all the attention they’ve paid to the lore over the years? But an idea that sounds cool doesn’t make a well written story on its own. And unless the theory in question makes the story better or at least makes you reconsider an aspect you previously dismissed, it’s likely not good for anything more than self-serving fan service.

[@WouldBeGamer]

I think it would matter to Stannis politically and emotionally. The entire story Stannis has said he doesn’t want to be king, he wants storms end. He’s only doing it out of duty. Davos and him even talk about Stannis abandoning his duty to the Targs for his duty to his brother. I think if he finds out that Jon is actually the heir, someone Stannis respects and considers a good leader (by Stannis’ standards) it would give Stannis an out of his duty to be king. A away he can put down the burden he never wanted, and restore his duty to the Targs.

[@owbu]

It depends entirely on how much time you spend in your video on how well leather burns. The more time, the better the theory.

[@thelateescapist8266]

I honestly can't tell if Preston believes everything he says or if everything he says is calculated click bait. "Quentin is alive." ?! Who cares about R+L=J." ?! Weather you agree with him or not you can't help but have a strong reaction to his outlandish premises. He gets the clicks! And that's kinda the point of this whole social media game.

[@mrfoozy47]

Prestons whole “who would care” point got me thinking about another aspect that fans tend to overlook (myself included) with a lot of fan theories is the problem of like, how could George reveal it in a believable way, at this point in the story. Like for example, with R+L=J, there’s the whole problem of, even if George does intend that that outcome is correct, it’s like 1) how do you reveal that information to Jon in the story in a way that he’ll believe it, I can think of a couple ways but 2) why would any of the other characters believe it and how could they be convinced of it, this is the biggest issue I see. Why would any of the Lannisters/Tyrells/Westeros in general believe that Jon, who has been publicly known as Ned Starks bastard his entire life, is actually secretly the son of Rhaegar, who may or may not have even been married to Lyanna. Like yeah, that’s where a lot of people think Holland Reed will finally make his big entrance onto the story, since he’s the only living person able to confirm R+L, but it’s like why would any of the aforementioned characters give a shit about what Howland Reed has to say. I think that’s the reason they had to pull so many silly contrivances in the show to make it work (high septon annulling Rhaegars first marriage ugh) and then in the end it only ever became known to Jon and Danys allies, not common knowledge among everyone else Not that I’m saying I think R+L is wrong, I think it’s definitely going to be confirmed somehow, I just don’t see how it could lead to the “Jon Targaryen 1st of his name” end-game that some people are rooting for

[@Fenix-lr6ez]

Maybe a bit late for an answer lol, but when he resurrects, I believe he will look different (white hair at least, maybe red eyes too), and that plus the fact that he will (likely) get Rhaegal makes it believable for all the other characters that he's Rhaegar's son.

[@FlameQwert]

the central thing here is thinking King Jon Targ the 1st as end-game is the issue. he's not gonna be king. the parentage question will be important to some plot points (fitting the prophecy, Stoneheart maybe, the question of who rules the north if/when the anti-Bolton conspiracy succeeds) and key players will know, but thematically it works best as "yeah he kinda has the bloodline of kings but he's kingly not because of that but in the all the other ways that do matter, even if nobody at large knows of R+L"

[@fabianbinder3681]

R+L=J will definitely have emotional consequences on - Jon - Lady Stoneheart - Jon Con - Sansa - Arya - Dany - Jaime (Technically he is still sworn to protect him) - Stannis (who is more „rightful“ king?) - Melisandre (king’s blood) Maybe even on Cersei. She still thinks about not getting Rhaegar. It’s hard to think about a theory with more emotional consequences.

[@tk423b]

We will never know. The next book will be out maybe 2025. He will never finish the story. Ask your self what would Brandon Sanderson do? Bc he will be finishing a song of ice and fire.

[@natemccollum3731]

Saying nobody will care about Jon’s parents is pretty ridiculous. People still talk about Rhaegar all the time, but most of all it shows that Robert’s Rebellion is built on a lie. You forget about the small folk and what they care about… so new theory- Preston is secretly Cersei Lannister

[@Fenix-lr6ez]

Robert's Rebellion wasn't built on a lie lol. They didn't rebel the moment Rhaegar took off with Lyanna, they rebelled when Aerys asked for their heads, after brutally killing Rickard and Brandon. And even if you still argue they rebelled because of Lyanna and Rhaegar, we have to bear in mind that even if Lyanna didn't want Robert but Rhaegar, it was still done without the permission of the one that mattered here who is Lord Rickard (it's a medieval world after all, people just can't go marry whoever they want).

[@ivanbluecool]

Preston and theory? Oh this will be a good video

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

Any video with Preston in it is always a good video

[@ivanbluecool]

​@@OfficialRedTeamReviewoh I'm sure of it.

[@StrangeGamer859]

Since we are on the topic of Howland Reed, have you ever read the theory that Howland is actually Shadrich the Mad Mouse, infiltrating the Vale to bring Sansa back to the North?

[@SuperWindsage]

also Euron.

[@KetilK]

I hate the thought of Jon's parentage having any political implications at this point. He joined the watch and renounced his titles, and shouldn't get them back on a technicality like dying and resurrecting. The magic associated with bloodlines could make an impact. If Daenerys still has at least two dragons once he and Jon meet, his Targaryen blood could help him form a dragon bond.

[@bstahl52]

Preston's hatred of the crannogmen and Howland Reed revolves around their seeming inaction during the War of The Five Kings but the whole point of the Crannogmen are to be guerilla fighters that hold the neck and harry any southern force that would attempt to march up the neck and support the defense of Moat Cailin/prevent forces from going around it. They're small people who sail the bogs in small boats with spears and bows. They're not heavily armored shock troops or mounted on horses, they don't have a high population or valuable resources and they generally don't get along with other northmen let alone riverlanders (freys especially). They occupy a strategic chokepoint and they know the land. You could have a couple hundred smaller people who don't ride horses in your war party or you could use them to much greater effect in the neck to defend as Robb did. They would've been crucial in Robb's plan to retake Moat Cailin from the south had he been able to do that. Howland Reed is doing exactly what Robb wanted him to do and I'll never know how Preston who knows so much about the series couldn't rationalize why Reed and his Crannogmen would stay in the neck.

[@maxmercer1931]

At this point, Greywater Watch better be an actual flying castle

[@randomantagonist8620]

Agreed

[@xi0]

There's a ton of things that exist within Ice and Fire that don't actually add much of anything to the story, so I don't think that's necessarily a qualifier when it comes to theories. This or that secretly being true can just exist to enrich the experience on the whole. We all know that Jon is probably a Targaryen, but will Jon ever learn of that? Maybe, maybe not. But it adds to the tragedy of his character.

[@thelateescapist8266]

I actually think the most dramatically effective thing the High Sparrow could be is exactly what he appears to be. An uncompromising religious zealot, with no loyalty to anyone but his gods. Because such men are a threat to the entire world. As such men would happily burn the whole world to light their way to heaven.

[@thelateescapist8266]

When you think about it, there are potentially good reasons for Howland Reed's apparent inactivity, that could actually make him very relevant to the latter stages of the story. For one, the crannog men are clearly most effective where they are. In their native swamps. Being a slight people, and living in an environment that is not ideal for raising or keeping horses, the primary vehicle of warfare in Westeros, makes it very unlikely that they are good horsemen. For these reasons the crannog men would be less than ideal soldiers in traditional warfare. However in the bogs of the neck they are a force to be reconned with. The Boltons took Moat Cailin from the Ironmen easily. Due in much greater part to the efforts of the crannog men, than their own. By the time Ramsey and Theon arrived, the Ironmen were already quite demoralized and undermanned, after being ground down by months of guerilla attacks by the crannog men. Secondly, while Howland didn't seem to put much skin in the game during the war of five kings, one could say he put in his most valuable players for the war for the dawn (the war against the Others). He sent his own children on a likely suicide mission to get Bran north of the wall so he could become the last greenseer, perhaps humanities greatest weapon against the Others. Finally, GRRM himself has said that Howland hasn't appeared yet because he knows too much. And I don't think that's just where Jon Snow's parentage is concerned. Howland is the only living person known to have visited the Isle Of Faces, perhaps the most magical place in all Westeros. He is also purported to have various magical abilities. Considering all this information, I don't think it's a leap to assume that he's been working with Blood Raven and the children in preparation for the return of the Others, and is waiting to bring all of his magical knowledge and talents to bare against the true enemy. After all, the most magical characters who've appeared in the story so far are all concerned more about the coming war for the dawn than the current wars for the throne.

[@uilliamunknown4844]

Does RLJ really matter? Daenerys as of now has 3 dragons, the Unsullied and 2nd Sons. Her stats alone trump any claim.

[@thelateescapist8266]

Virtually every character in the story has reasons to care about R+L=J. As it would not only give Jon the best claim to the iron throne, but would also make him the best candidate to fulfill the song of ice and fire prophecy, which is the endgame of the whole series. And learning that he is not only not a bastard, but also the rightful ruler of the entire continent he's lived on his entire life, would have a huge impact on Jon personally, and pragmatically.

[@Seelenverheizer]

I think with the book series becoming as long as it is the reveal is simply far away from book 1 to be very impactfull emotionally but yeah i think its mostly there for the prophecies + it makes sense for Jon to reject his targ side and be a stark for his real father always was Ned.

[@alexs_toy_barn]

You're new here, arnt you?

[@AjayKumar-hh6hx]

Carmine is a secret Targaryen---bad theory. GRRM made Carmine his secret heir to ASOIAF---good theory.

[@trolledchaos6531]

Of course Preston gets the last word on a string of bad points smh

[@manband20]

Quaithe being Ashara Dayne works perfectly for Dany's character if she was actually her and Brandon's child and through some shenanigans, Dany replaced the original "Daenerys" at some point during her childhood. Now Quaithe (Ashara) gets to protect her daughter through her quest to become a Queen and retake her supposed homeland. There's obviously flaws with the story that make this impossible, but I do like that idea for a story.

[@MiddleEarthGirl75]

I've thought that as well. But Dany wouldn't have the Targ hair if she was Ashara and Brandon's daughter. Or Ashara and Ned's daughter for those who believe that. But given the Dayne's close allegiance to the Targaryens; her closeness with Elia, it would still make sense for Ashara to watch over Dany....perhaps liking her to the daughter she lost. I'm a staunch believer in the Ned and Ashara theory and believe they were planning to wed before the shit hit the fan and Ned had to marry Catelyn. I've even dabbled in writing a fanfic about it, lol

[@miguelsanchez825]

What about Ashara Dayne = Euron Greyjoy?

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

Thats the exception

[@evilcorgi1367]

As much as I agree with you, GRRM admittedly doesn’t always flow that path himself. Because literally why tf would Bran care that his mentor beyond the wall was a secret Targaryen?

[@mihaicretu2477]

Carmine, I know you've read the Exodus Theory (at least one of the earlier iterations). Did you ever discuss it with Preston in any sort of detail?

[@autje1970]

High Septon = the preacher in ACoK who calls Tyrion a 'demon monkey'. For one, it affects Tyrion (he thinks of himself as a 'demon monkey' often afterwards), plus there are parallels to The Shepherd: both start preaching on Cobbler's Square, both rise to power during a period of turmoil. And it would make for a nice confrontation when Tyrion returns to King's Landing.

[@jrwilliams4029]

I am not sure I would want every theory resolved? I feel it would detract from a lot of the mystery and intriguing discourse involved with the plethora of ASOIAF theories. Some absolutely must be revealed like the penumbra of secrecy surrounding Howland Reed, who is Quaithe, the Harpy and perfumed seneschal, is Rhaegar alive, etc.

[@ALtheuncommonicedragon8360]

Jon being revealed as Targaryen as enormous potential to change things for him both in his political standing & his character. He’d have to grapple with fact his uncle lied about being his dad and that his mother was a teenager who died & that he had two siblings killed by the lannisters before he was even born, and he’d be tempted to get drawn into idea of Targaryen supremacy.

[@sophiawilson8696]

I know who Blackfye really is what different between Black Dragon and Red Dragon? there a clue there. I think of the boy who thinks his Parents is Elia Martell and Rhaegar Targaryen? He is Targaryen and Blackfye. Ask yourself who his father and uncle is.

[@printing.y.papeleria]

Woooow Peter Jacob is a hater who knew!...

[@ivanbluecool]

Honestly what's great about asoiaf is that george going one way or another works good either way without just ignoring storylines A good theory should take note of who gains what and how it benefits the parties making moves. The sand snakes going to kings landing could add to the chaos if they start making moves by joining the faith and gaining an ear or the council and pushing pro dorne antics. Though they could just be forgotten about if aegon comes in early. Same with prophecy and how it happens in an ironic way or be a straight spoiler nobody paid attention to like the wolf head with meat or old nan saying the red comet signaled dragons George may not use every idea he has but that makes for good twists that still work in canon. Sansa could be taken from the vale before the invasion happens and such.

[@natemccollum3731]

The HS theory that makes the best story is that the High Sparrow is just a zealous asshole. I think it adds more to Cersei’s story. It shows her disregard for those she feels insignificant is a major piece to her fall

[@berserk____1878]

Preston speaking facts. Who would actually care tho lmao

[@LaylaTow]

I would disagree about that theoretical plot line doesn’t matter because most of the characters don’t matter cos like for exemple how many of them care about the wall wildlings and white walkers? Like sincerely none only night watch and stanis

[@JacobTemplar]

Real quick is the new baba booey. Rip baba booey 😢

[@OfficialRedTeamReview]

what do you mean?

[@JacobTemplar]

@@OfficialRedTeamReview way back in the day you used to end like every video by saying baba booey. Now you start every video with Preston by saying real quick 😂

[@feral7523]

I want Quathie to be Pretty Merris hence the mask!

[@SuperWindsage]

Euron might care , that is some good blood sacrifice to use!

[@obviousalias132]

Theory good if I like it Theory bad if I don’t Simple as

[@thelateescapist8266]

Varys Blackfyre makes the most sense if Varys is the last female scion of house Blackfyre. Varys goes a long way to achieve androgyny with "his" shaved head, make up, silken robes, and effeminate demeanor. A eunuch would be the perfect disguise for a woman. No POV character has actually seen what's really between Varys' legs. And no POV character actually knows anything about Varys' life before coming to Westeros except what "he's" told them. It could all be lies. And Varys places a lot of trust in Illyrio. Who would you trust more to help you orchestrate the restoration of your house through placing your son on your old enemy's throne? A decades long co-conspiritor motivated solely by personal profit. Or a spouse motivated to by love to ensure the future of his son, who is also your son. 🤔

[@jaycee2070]

Arya pretended to be a boy and didnt have to tell people she was a eunuch. Oberyn's daughter is at the citadel and pretending to be a man and she didnt have to tell anyone she is a eunuch. So why would Varys have to tell people he's a eunuch just because he's a women? Theres no reason to lie about being a eunuch if youre actually a women. And if anyone actually seeing whats in between their legs there will be no mistaking a vagina for a gelded penis.

[@logansmith2703]

R+L only matters if it becomes like a plot point for another fight for the throne. Or causes conflict between Dany and Jon.

[@NeeNee_B.]

Or btwn he and Sansa if she ever takes power. He'll be the only one with a better claim to the throne than her, not counting Dany & faegon ofcourse

[@LoLotov]

This for sure, just because the show makes it a lover's spat that gets resolved within 20 minutes of scenes doesn't mean it isn't absolutely key to how the books shake out.

[@johnpotts8308]

The trouble is - how would anyone prove it? Bran can go back and see Jon's birth, but who would trust the word of a tree wizard who's his half-brother (well, cousin)? Which is why I've always hoped he's the child of Ned and Wylla (or some other random woman) - it's Jon's actions that make him important, not his bloodline,

[@Mwezi828]

Wrong, it matters for the conflict with the Others.

[@diogenes7663]

@@TalkingThronesyeah I get that probably the intention but would people believe a randomness crannogman even if he was close to Ned in his youth Don’t get me wrong I think if it is revealed it’ll probably howl and that reveals it

[@maxmercer1931]

Preston is secretly Carmine. Now TWoW fan project is so much more interesting

[@TheRoguePrince0]

R+L=J is a dumb theory especially since Jon's mother has already been revealed to be named Wylla. Edric dayne, swears it on the honor of his house to arya stark.

[@spacelia3920]

I think think his mother is Ashara Dayne, but yes, R + L = J is dumb considering it’s physically impossible given the timeline we have for Robert’s rebellion

[@jackbiesty3729]

Well. When I woke up this morning I wasn't expecting to find RTR talking about my super chat. Also thanks for saying my name right and calling me the beast that I am.

[@pcharl01]

Depending on how the story goes, the High Septon could be a descendant of House Reyne, no?

[@johnnyskinwalker4095]

Well Jon and Dany would care if Rhaegar would come back. lol Would be interesting if Robert did not actually kill him cause another man would have been under the armor. Or Robert would had lied about it, maybe? And since then Rhaegar would be under the guise of Jaqen Hagar. Him not only interacting with Arya whom he would found her similar to Lyanna but also commanding a guild of assassins would make it something fun to read.

[@jaycee2070]

No it wouldn't. Just stop.

[@jaycee2070]

You also don't seem to know the history of the faceless men and braavos and their hatred of the valyrians. Why would an ancient order of assassin's that has been around for hundreds of years that got started because of the cruelty of old valyria, suddenly let a valyrian prince become the head of their order? What has he been doing for the last 15 years? Why fake his death? Literally nothing about this theory makes sense. You might as well go read a different story because you clearly haven't been paying attention to this one.

[@MiddleEarthGirl75]

My fav theories - The Pink Letter, The Dornish Master Plan and especially The Grand Maesters theory. But what I'd like to be talked about more is Robb's will going to Howland Reed. Did it get to him? What are the consequences of it's contents in relation to the story if it says 'this' or 'that?' How and to whom would Howland make the will known? With Robb believing Bran, Rickon and Arya are dead and Sansa captive an marrying within the Lannister family (I can't remember if she was married to Tyrion when the will was written) would Robb disinherit her so her heirs wouldn't inherit the northern crown? Can he make Jon his heir if Jon is at the wall? And so on. I know there are reddits and stuff about it but if Preston has already gone into any kind of immense detail I'd love a link to it. If he hasn't, I'd love a video on it. ***Also, question for EVERYONE - Is it possible that both Dany and Aegon fight for the throne and once Jon's parentage comes out, he chooses to either fight for it himself (which given his personality doesn't seem likely), or chooses a side to fight on - the person he thinks would be best to deal with the Others and rule the realm? Is it possible that two of Dany's dragons would go to the other two Targ men, causing another Dance of the Dragons?

[@thelateescapist8266]

Re Dany, Jon, Aegon and the dragons, my theory is that Euron will steal one of Dany's dragons before she leaves Essos. Dany will have a dance of dragons with Aegon, who will be sitting the iron throne by the time she arrives in Westeros. Their dance will end with Aegon dead and Kings Landing in flames. By the time Dany learns Jon is a Targaryen she will have learned her lesson about seeking power for its own sake and will be more concerned with protecting the realm than ruling the realm. This will allow her to see him as a potential partner rather than a potential rival. Which could lead to her giving him one of her two remaining dragons. Maybe. 😏

[@aceambling7685]

Obviously the Patrician's Choice of parentage theories is Timmet One Eye, son of Timmet of the Burned Men and the 7th daughter of Elys Waynwood and Alys Arryn, therefore rightful heir to the Vale.

[@aceambling7685]

While I personally find R+L=J boring, saying it wouldnt effect anything is nonsense. It sets up a three way inter Targ conflict between Jon, Dany, and Griff, with deep political and personal ramifications. It pretty drastically alters Jon's relationships with his Stark family, especially Stoneheart and Sansa, certainly has ramifications for Ashford Tourney theorists. It could dramatically effect the lives of Stannis and Joncon, bringing them some measure of peace. Its undoubtedly important for the War of the Dawn. The child of Ice and Fire. As for those asking how the reveleation would be proven/believed - it need not be. In fact it plays into the themes of the series if his claim is not beleived by some, as this disbelief would drive conflict.

[@conormcginn3312]

Wtf are these two talking about. There’s so many theories and ideas that they dismiss in this video that are so crucial to the story, many people will care. I don’t think they know what they are talking about in this video

[@ThomFoolery12]

The High Sparrow being a disaffected peasant is infinitely more interesting than him secretly being some random lord we’ve barely heard of. So much of the books are about the smallfolk suffering for lack agency. The High Sparrow is them finally fighting back.

[@princeprocrastinate6485]

Yet again Preston makes some crushingly astute observations. I always felt like what really is the point or relevance of R+L=J, how much can that really affect the whole series? Seems trifling at this point.

[@konstantinkrastev4478]

Preston is straight up wrong, I will give a real life example. But let give a near to life example first if Kennedy was revived today do you think people would not care ? what about the founding fathers? what about ghenkis khan? these are people that live in myth so deep in the human subconciousness . People would definitely care about Raegar and J Snow as his son being revealed that he is a targ too. For the real life example, I live in Bulgaria and we had our "king return after communism", he ran as a prime minister and formed a party and won, because the media and people created this return of the king narrative... he of course sucked

[@avatarname0008]

Preston is right on about who cares even when i was pro r+l as a way for jon to get involved politically but theres legit more merit to jon getting involved as a stark bastard than a targaryen bastard the only interesting way is for jon to maybe get a dragon but idk about him ever even becoming involved as a political figure anymore lol

[@kekero540]

Review this theory what if Euron can imprint his consciousness on someone through a combination of Torture and Warging creating a subservient clone of himself?

[@everopeneye3290]

and we will never know because he will never finnish the books 😅

[@markof1303]

If you put it like that, who cares about anything? Not a great argument

[@billyalarie929]

7:09 can ya dig it?!

[@darrylseymour]

Preston is correct with everything he says in this video.

[@cheangizzz]

Good ones are made by that Preston Jacobs guy and their many part videos ate accompanied with funny editing and beautiful music.

[@sophiawilson8696]

Bolton On is best theory! Also that Jon Snow is the son of Ashara Dayne and Brandon Stark.

[@jaycee2070]

This man literally just said "but Areo Hotah wont care"..... wtf?!?!?