"Billions in potential revenue" - Tesla will launch FSD in China in months

"Billions in potential revenue" - Tesla will launch FSD in China in months
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[@electricviking]

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[@ozbandit]

Here’s a thought, Sam. We know several Chinese companies like Huawei, Xpeng, Geely, Xiaomi, and BYD have been developing their own FSD systems for the past decade. Huawei even has the potential to license its technology to all Chinese automakers. Given this, the Chinese government’s willingness to grant Tesla regulatory approval for FSD might be a strategic move. By allowing Tesla in, they could be motivating local companies to accelerate development and investment in homegrown solutions, using Tesla as a benchmark. This could eventually neutralize the last competitive advantage the West holds over Chinese automakers, including future technologies like humanoid robots...

[@orion789]

Tesla will not be able to restrain China from developing their own fsd once tesla proves it can work. They have the scale and the command economy to do anything they need to. It is western companies that will have to come to tesla to license their own

[@America_bombsTSMC]

in chinese medium b station, numerous customer site test results show tesla FSD cant win huawei ADS 3.0.

[@networm78]

Exactly. FSD will not be as effective in China as people think it'll be, but like their EVs, they will attract eyeballs from Chinese consumers. What was a good-to-have in the last few years will now become a necessity. The XPeng CEO is predicting that 2026 will be the turning point for ADAS and their years of investment will start to bear fruit.

[@ozbandit]

​@networm78 Indeed, I also think Musk is grossly overestimating the revenue stream FSD will bring to Tesla. Rather than valued in the 1000s, it will be valued in the 100s, with my bet being that once Chinese EV manufacturers get it right, most will add it in as value added to help drive EV sales growth and destroy Western Auto industry.

[@networm78]

@@ozbandit Yes, especially since XPeng isn't charging any money for XNGP. You simply need to get their Max trim for the full-featured ADAS.

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[@AgataRadizikowska]

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[@skylershank9309]

Another game-changer! Can't wait for it's autonomous driving vehicles in China!

[@glike2]

This is all about finding a government willing to innovate and be a leader in autonomous transportation. China wants to be that and the USA wants to support legacy big Auto

[@PhilipWong55]

Huawei’s Qiankun ADS 3.0 AI-powered autonomous driving system will be in with cars from BYD, Dongfeng, Changan, GAC, BAIC, Aito, Chery, and JAC. Turing Chip and XNGP will be in Xpeng's autonomous driving ambitions in their cars, robots, and flying cars.

[@sun-man]

GAME CHANGER! (drinks) 🍷🍸

[@ifo32]

Tesla could cut a deal with BYD where they use the Tesla app at a reduced rate for booking and lease the tech for their vehicles.

[@MrGMawson2438]

We will see cheers mate

[@MrGMawson2438]

Afternoon Sam

[@atanacioluna292]

I suspect China is encouraging it for two reasons. 1) To advance the technology and procedures. 2) So the other manufacturers can benefit from the development. Once the science is advanced, it can be copied en mass. So, it seems this will not be a big revenue stream for long.

[@SparkySho]

Ha too many young women drivers tehehe

[@stryder1587]

Agree with this, they just want to copy it and then take over by driving FSD prices down. Not a good look for those invested in Tesla thinking FSD will dominate the global marketplace.

[@davidbuchan3753]

Those that copy seem to always be following, no? TESLA will be a leader (winner) for many moons…!

[@networm78]

The ADAS solutions by various Chinese brands are already incredibly advanced, it's just that no one outside of China has been paying attention. Rather than advancing Chinese technology, Tesla launching FSD in China will instead get the world to sit up and take notice of the Chinese ADAS technologies like XPeng's XNGP, Huawei's ADS, Li Auto's AD-Max and NIO's NOP.

[@mirvine1]

I don't see how robotaxi's achieve making human conciosness interplanetary but as a shareholder, bring on the billions.

[@beehappy7797]

Perhaps someone will understand how unique consciousness is since it cannot be implemented in a computer program. They may even wake up.

[@stvybaby]

Soon, it will cost more to insure cars without self driving.

[@jsanders100]

My br in law lives is Shanghai, he says the self driving is coming in but people who have used it say it’s slow. Maybe it will improve in time?

[@historicaleditor369]

driving style in china is completely different than US so that makes sense. i am very curious how FSD will be like in China where there are virtually no rules in most places lol

[@mnhsty]

Used it? Is it available now?

[@SparkySho]

Guud guud guud Gudday Mate great video tytyty

[@paulrandolph8469]

No, I don't know. How did Xpeng get software almost as good as Tesla's?

[@frankcoffey]

Sales of FSD won't be anywhere near what is expected. Robo Taxi may not make a profit either. Tesla has wasted billions on the idea and will never get that much money back. Even if there were zero lawsuits or unexpected operating expenses, payback could take a decade or more. It's not impossible it's just improbable. Tesla and others are counting only on the best case scenario.

[@jdcarguy1242]

Incorrect.

[@stevemarquardt3217]

Scary thought - could self driving cars be used as mobile bombs by terrorists? If so, would they be banned FOREVER due to national security concerns? What does this do to stock prices?

[@lawrenceasero2207]

Valid point

[@paulbo9033]

Probably the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Wait until you find out that ICE cars are used a bombs by terrorists. While we're at it, let's ban phones because they are also used as bombs by terrorists. Let's also ban food because terrorists eat food 🤦‍♂️

[@mnhsty]

Two or three or even half a dozen bombs would not be an existential threat justifying a ban. Not when tens of thousands are dying due to lack of vehicle autonomy.

[@rioriggs3568]

Have you tried FSD? Have you seen FSD videos online? Have you listened to PhD computer scientists talk about the state of AI? Th state of AI is we have no AI. Unsupervised self driving cars are years and years if not multiple decades away. Take rate in America is 2%. Until it’s perfect, it remains a gadget. FSD has barely improved in the last years. It still fails 95% of edge cases. The easy part was the first 99%. The hard part is the last 1%. If FSD would cause only a minor accident (approx $5,000 in damage) per 5 years that would be enough to bankrupt Tesla. Currently FSD requires a significant intervention every 83 miles and that number as barely changed in the last 3 years.

[@NewkFritz]

Tesla driving in China?

[@kenzo9644]

One thing you self proclaimed experts don't say is what are you going to do with the out of service batteries which have the potential to have thermal runaway .There will be mountains of these tine bombs, ridicules. That does not sound eco friendly too me! This is the worst idea I've seen in ny 66 years on this planet

[@Nas_Atlas]

I know you're right because you are a very smart man.

[@NopWorks]

Clearly you didn't follow the developments enough. There's now batteries without thermal runaway that are being used in EVs en masse, with more and more companies developing the technology for safe EV batteries.

[@leiflarsson9637]

Why not Robotaxis in USA? Is it not legal in Texas? In Europe it is not going to be legal. FSD does not work.

[@melvinstarita]

Elon is upping the ante. He's very very competitive.Software is the future even in EV. With software,Tesla and Japan could beat China's EV.

[@lokmanhussain3805]

What are you talking about, what Japan has to do with this? Japan is not good at software

[@citris1]

Full self driving is creepy. It is like having a ghost driving your car. I would rather have a humanoid robot driving my car. We could even chat while we are on our way. 😀

[@lumtavon1952]

Just say XPeng was blamed to steal the Tesla software!!! And their vehicles are just copies of Tesla. You repeat many things many times (like your solar system) but nevet negative facts on xping! Why, why why??? Please clarify as otherwise it looks very likely you did receive some benefits from them.

[@bauble56]

Hasn't he open-sourced the software?

[@America_bombsTSMC]

china wont allow FSD, only allows to test L3.

[@EvanLudo]

I dont like advanced tek . Unsafe

[@yojoe4830]

Naw, the Chinese are no longer interested in Tesla...they'll get better tech from home grown EV makers.

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[@HcycChcy]

How please?

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[@champ0682]

Pipe dream and you know it

[@luckylenny]

Don't see Tesla full self-driving as workable. With a GM or Toyota, no one would ever sue anyone but the driver for an accident. But if the car is on "auto-pilot," then Tesla would be sued. I think Tesla's full-self driving ambitions will remain unfilled for long time

[@paulbo9033]

It's called insurance. If you get into a crash you don't sue the person, you swap insurance details 🤦‍♂️ Also, suing is only a thing in the US. Absolutely no one does this in RoW.

[@mnhsty]

Gosh, I bet Elon never thought of that.

[@user-sj4dr8wt3k]

Nio is the ev stock to buy now, NOT Tesla!

[@Harrythehun]

Why? What's is there in Nios business that is great?

[@user-sj4dr8wt3k]

@@Harrythehun They have batteryswap, they have their own ai chip, they have their own phone, they have lidar tecknolegy, and they have the greatest user saticfaction in the world! And unlike Tesla their PE is insanly cheap! And they will be profitable late next year, so please sell your shares if you have some, then I will gladly buy them!

[@PaulSerro]

U r absolutely right when envo released Tesla done this mate paid basher never has anything good say about Nio

[@user-sj4dr8wt3k]

@@PaulSerro Hahah ecatly hed can,t stand the truth abought Nio,s trillion dollar masterplan, but you and me will get very wealthy mate.

[@St.Maurice]

@@user-sj4dr8wt3k Stock Moe is that you????? You all been pumping NIO since it was $57 per share. Now at $5 you all say people should invest in it!😂

[@LeonieBachmann-h7x]

We LOVE Elon! Thanks for X and for endorsing Trump!

[@mydogsbutler]

That marriage doesn't make much sense given Trump and the baby-Jesus sorts of Project 2025, support ICE, oil and gas. Speaking as an independent, Elon has let his over sensitivity to woke craziness (probably because his trans kid public ditched him) cloud his political judgement. Exchanging one set of craziness for even more crazy isn't exactly rational.

[@sheilah4525]

Guess what China uses to generate the electricity? Yeh….. FOSSIL FUELS. This explains the unbreathable air in Beijing and in almost all Chinese cities. Great imaginary answers.

[@ClownCarCoup]

partly. 1/3 of China’s electricity is generated with renewables and nuclear. That portion increases each year. Furthermore, coal plants can be built outside of large cities whereas FF vehicles emit exhaust within the cities where the drive. THINK about it…

[@lumtavon1952]

Yeh, dream on the past! Solar & wind installation in the world now more than 50% in China!!! You're loosing touch with reality or are just stupid.

[@mydogsbutler]

Really odd choice to launch alleged FSD in China. My bet it's another unsafe marketing gobbledegook version of it. They are probably launching in China because they the are less likely to face extreme litigation for false advertising once crashes start happening. Full self-driving EVs are eventually coming but doing it the way Tesla is doing it, without lidar, IMO as a dev is probably more than a decade away if we are talking safety.

[@bandit6762]

Tesla using using vision only with neural nets is the right way. The rest are distracted by expensive lidar and radar on roads built by and for vision.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@bandit6762 In an ultimate sense maybe since it's the cheaper option. in the short term though, the data being used to generate the models doesn't seem good enough (yet) to support full self driving via visual cues alone. Models are to a degree random. Even devs don't understand the model's logic. The mathematics can also be consistent with unintended results. When ChatGPT has occasional hallucinations it's not usually a big deal. When a car does it can be deadly so it's especially important to eliminate them.. Lidar adds a layer of security. All things being equal, the extra parameters make the models more truthworthy.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@bandit6762 Humans use visible light. Machine learning models on the other hand don't understand the difference between different wavelengths of energy being use to create the datasets. Visible light or Lidar or radar is all the same from that perspective. What Lidar and radar offer is extra data points to calibrate against but it comes at an economic cost which is less than ideal Musk's strategy is about first principles. His rationale is eventually visual models will be the better option because is the simpler and cheaper option. The problem is we don't know exactly when that will happen due to the aforementioned obfuscation that is intrinsic to how we make machine learning models today.. Could be tomorrow or decades down the road. in the meantime, lidar is being used successfully in the real world with self-driving Waymos taxies. Despite bugs its fatality and accident rate is less than humans

[@ClownCarCoup]

It was foolish of Tesla to drop lidar. The cost savings is not justified by the reduction in safety.

[@mydogsbutler]

@@ClownCarCoup Waymo has had real world success with their taxis with far smaller datasets to work with than Tesla. With Tesla resources Lidar seems doable even today. And as you mention It doesn't add that much to price of a car (currently about $1K) I get why Musk dropped Lidar. His approach to problems is physics first principles. He goes for the more elegant solution to save on manufacturing costs. Over the long term he might be right but it seems premature to drop Lidar at the moment. If other companies start mass producing cars with full self driving then he might have no choice but to go back to Lidar or lose marketshare. Or maybe he's betting that Chinese beta testers have a higher threshold for traffic deaths to work out the kinks?