Correcting the NFL’s passer rating lie

[@SecretBaseSBN]

you ready for more? here's links to the rest of the episodes episode 2: kzbin.info/www/bejne/qoOVg6eJd8ugsM0si=_9Qw2hcT0ILXT3n0 episode 3: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pYO6dHZqmtmolacsi=v9ubYWNRAXE9C_11 episode 4: coming soon

[@tatedawson7859]

update, episode 4 is out

[@takeitback916]

Some of the best videos on the internet are because a couple of guys got really angry about something so they made a chart about it

[@Hafk]

Its TRUE

[@barleymepodcast2301]

The REAL Uncharted we all want and deserve

[@fortynights1513]

Or at the very least felt inspired to use the talents they possess. Anger can serve as that inspiration.

[@eninn]

do you have some examples? :))

[@takeitback916]

@@eninn the entire of Jon Bois’ Pretty Good series

[@holstorrsceadus1990]

Is this going to involve charts? GIMME THE CHARTS.

[@DACFalloutRanger]

We can have a party, a party with charts!

[@jonathanking8800]

@@DACFalloutRanger Some might even call it... a Chart Party!

[@stevenmanley8924]

My first thought was LETS OPEN THE EXCEL!

[@andymiller6474]

It was such a tease....

[@serisothikos]

I would love to be invited to a Chart Party

[@SimuLord]

*pours out a 40 for that game between the Cardinals and Falcons from 1974 with dueling 0.0 passer ratings*

[@robertdennis8933]

Or as my friends and I call it, the Craig Morton line, in honor of his 0.0 rating in Super Bowl XII

[@whypick1_]

I was thinking of the Jets-Cardinals Sanchez vs. Lindley game that SBNation did a video on ages ago. But it seems rather cruel to have people re-visit that one (again) for our entertainment.

[@fortynights1513]

1973, but point taken.

[@614showtime]

That’s big ten football right there

[@Hawkmanuno]

@@whypick1_ In other words, Secret Base absolutely should do another video on that one again.

[@SheeshEther]

I’ve watched football for 30 years and never understood Passer rating. Thank you for simplifying this.

[@weeklyfont]

the work that goes into these must be absolutely insane

[@adaelasm6467]

If you have a stats database it’s honestly not hard at all, it’s the visualization that takes a while

[@blazeesq2000]

It takes a lot of work to get a master's degree. After that, things like this can be routine, if one keeps up with it.

[@twerktospec]

It's not that's why they can't get a TV deal

[@taintedtapper]

data and secret base always go together like fine wine and cheese

[@thekoniverse2704]

I'm glad you're doing this because as a Bills fan, something about passer rating kinda bothered me. Look at the 2021 Wildcard against the Patriots in which every Bills drive went for either a touchdown or a kneeldown: Allen completed 84% of his passes, at 12.32 yards per attempt, had 5 touchdowns over 25 passes, and had an interception percentage of zero. His passer rating was 157.6. I later heard that his passer rating went down after he threw a touchdown because it knocked his YPA, which... makes no sense.

[@BaseballsNotDead]

Even with uncapped QB rating, you can still lower your rating by throwing a TD. If a QB throws a 99 yard TD pass his first pass of the game, he would have an uncapped rating of 831.25. If on his second pass of the game he throws a 1 yard TD pass, his rating would drop 204.2 points to 627.1.

[@swintintin]

​@BaseballsNotDead weren't expecting to see you here, but I can't say I'm surprised! Im a fan of your videos

[@fortynights1513]

@@BaseballsNotDeadNever have asked, but do you have a favorite MLB team?

[@SgtHolton]

@@fortynights1513 He's a Brewers fan, if I remember right.

[@thekoniverse2704]

​@@BaseballsNotDead Ah, I see! Thinking about it some more, I can see the logic in that. I personally felt that the fact that the fact that you threw a touchdown should matter more in that scenario, which is why I thought it didnt make any sense. But it's defintiely far more impressive to throw a longer touchdown than a shorter one. Thank you for responding! You make really great baseball videos, by the way! :D

[@bens5661]

Brees' only incompletion in his 29/30 game was a throw intended to prevent a sack. He was 29/29 on passes intended for receivers. That was the night he broke the career TD passes record, and i know because I was there to see it!

[@fortynights1513]

Fun Drew Brees fact: Everyone talks about the record streak of games with a touchdown pass. If not for one dreadful game in Atlanta in 2012, he would’ve had 100 straight games with a touchdown pass going into 2015.

[@SecretBaseSBN]

keep your eyes out for three more episodes from this opening salvo of Scattered. going to dive through the highs, the lows, and how to fix this broken system over the next few weeks. let us know what you think and see you soon

[@LuisHGarcia]

Great stuff! So after this segment, should we expect a future series of Scattered episodes that dissects the WAR stat in MLB or something similar?

[@ektran4205]

air yards

[@ChewsCarefully]

Here's what *I* wanna see: stats showing what a QB's stat lines would look like if the plays nullified by penalties were counted. 2 straight games now Fields has had All His Long Passes discounted for penalties. Why? _He_ didn't cause those.

[@ektran4205]

@@ChewsCarefully they should not count the wr after catch yards in the yards per att of the qb

[@ChewsCarefully]

@@ektran4205 I'm dyslexic so I'm having trouble finding out where, but I _know_ those stats are separated somewhere because I have heard people mention how many air yards a QB gets sometimes. Tom Brady's status as goat would _REALLY_ come into question if anyone looked at his because *yikes* he could become the top check-down merchant of all time if anyone saw them. But here's the thing: would that _really_ determine a QB's v. WR's impact? Fields set accuracy records in college. But a lot of his receivers would fall upon catching his passes. Was that the angle of the reception, or something else? & even if so, does that make what the defender did the key factor? Yeah, if it's Bo Nix it reveals a consistency. But again with Fields, all his longest air passes this past week were nullified by penalties.

[@walterwright1085]

Shoutout to that outlier Payton Manning game near the very bottom, which was also the same game he broke the all-time career passing yards record

[@fortynights1513]

Peyton in 2015 was unfortunately washed aside from two or three decent games (including one vs the Lions of a passer rating over 100), his last AFC Championship Game was also decent enough. But the one where he broke the yardage record was an awful performance aside from that.

[@raineob4996]

Peyton threw until his arm fell off.

[@Sixfortyfive]

The start of the 16-game KC-DEN streak.

[@plasticwrapcharlie]

Only Payton Manning. I love that man though

[@gmwdim]

Peyton Manning's stats for that game: 5/20 for 35 yards (1.8 ypa), 0 TD, 4 Int.

[@pixel7051]

7:21 that number is 39 now, as Kyler Murray achieved a perfect passer rating on September 15th 2024 in a game against the Los Angeles Rams

[@hiimemily]

In case you were wondering, Kyler's uncapped passer rating was 169.9.

[@pixel7051]

@@hiimemily thx for doing the math

[@rossb2695]

Aw, dang it.

[@a-dragon-hoarding-teacups]

@@hiimemily Nice.

[@ObscuraDeCapra]

@@a-dragon-hoarding-teacups HAHA LOL GREAT DECADE OLD MEME 🤨

[@stovehanes]

Lamar Jackson completed 17 passes in 20 attempts for 324 yards with 5 touchdowns against the Dolphins on September 8, 2019 in week 1 of his first MVP season. Jackson's first nine passes, all completions, went for 204 yards and four touchdowns, including scores of 47 and 83 yards to first-round draft pick Marquise Brown in the first 11 minutes. Final score: 59-10

[@BranJ89]

A “RB” had the best game ever at QB? Interestingggggg

[@Y0gurt123]

Not to mention 59-10 was Scorigami

[@BranJ89]

Excuse me - the TWO best games at QB post-merger! Again, a Running Back!

[@damiana5268]

​@@BranJ89sounds like the skill sets teams look for when trying to draft a QB need to be reevaluated

[@AliceYobby]

If I calculated it correctly, that puts his passer rating at 223.75. Wow

[@Phegan]

The best part of the video is when Alex said "Episodes to come"

[@griffinhays2053]

Getting this 2 days after Kyler Murray had a "perfect" passer rating is pretty interesting timing

[@AxeMan808]

Y'all's visualizations are always so on point. Especially those zoom outs where you can see the whole picture and how much obsessive work (some may say dangerously obsessive) went into it.

[@joeydirt69]

here after the Jared Goff perfect game. the fact that a QB can go 18/18 with 292 yards, 2 passing TDS, and 0 INTs tells us everything we need to know about this lie of a stat.

[@NHLfreak87]

God damn I love when Secret Base makes a video about numbers that don't matter at all. It's my favourite thing ever, I could watch it for days.

[@HeadCannon19]

I would love to see a graph of these games graphed by original passer rating vs true passer rating so we can see who has been helped or hurt the most by it, even outside of the upper and lower outliers shown in the video

[@KD555]

3:37 1943 Sid Luckman threw a TD at 13.9% of his passes (an NFL record 28 in just 202 attempts). No one else ever topped 11% and the SB era mark is Manning's 9.9% in his 49 TD season in 2004. Yeah that's outside the scale here but since 1947 Luckman is singled out for INTs, give the man some credit for that historic season.

[@brianmiller1077]

Was he throwing to Jesse Owens?

[@fortynights1513]

Luckman is still the best quarterback the Bears have ever had. Other guys since have more volume obviously, but none were as good for as long.

[@KD555]

​@@fortynights1513 No doubt about that. P.S. I didn't mention he capped off that season by throwing *5 TDs in the title game* (those days version of the SB). 15/26 for 286 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. His adjusted passer rating for this game was 160.2 (compared to a mere 135.6 by the traditional flawed metrics). That must be one of the earliest over 158.3 games, done in the equivalent of a SB!

[@fortynights1513]

@@KD555I’ve heard Sammy Baugh had a good performance in the 1937 NFL championship game too

[@MRB16th]

​​​@@KD555 Luckman was so far ahead of his time it's amazing - he could play in today's NFL and be a top-level QB or very close to it. His 13.9% TD rate in 1943 is, in my opinion, an unbreakable NFL record - as a comparison, Manning in 2004 would have needed 70 TDs to break it, or 21 more than he actually threw for.

[@ceasetheday87]

So what I’m getting is… Passer rating may be more representative of performance over a season, where the larger sample size allows things to average out, but not over a game, where the smaller sample size can lead to inaccuracies.

[@AliceYobby]

yes, which is normal for most statistics in sports, however for some reason the creators of PR like baked in that bias to make it *literally wrong* for small samples, rather than just not very indicative of actual performance/ability like it would be otherwise

[@reececalvin3551]

@@AliceYobbyI think this whole video is just a joke intentionally taken way too far. Best not to put too much thought into it

[@paulelton5998]

@@AliceYobby Fun fact. The passer rating was developed to be easily calculated using a slide rule as it predates calculators and personal computers etc. The floor and ceiling are actually the upper and lower limits of the slide rule. So the "bias" is basically just a limitation of the technology of the day.

[@adamzandarski8933]

That’s why this analysis makes the problem worse. It’s taking the exact problem qbr was trying to solve and ham fodting it back into the equation

[@wakkawakkagaming3710]

1. Hell yeah Alex, idk how it took so long for you to get your own show 2. I’m so glad this video exists because the perfect passer being a decimal has always been a splinter in my brain

[@DrZaius3141]

Fun fact: If all your passes are completions for negative 99 yards, your passer rating will be -327, which is still better than the absolute floor of -415 for all picks.

[@denimchicken104]

That’s actually solid. Better to maintain possession.

[@Oceanatornowk]

What I never understood is why these limits were implemented? Who was giving the input that we shouldn’t include outliers in an advance stat? The outliers are like half the fun of these kinds of stats

[@n0tthemessiah]

I would go as far to say that outliers are the entire reason for the stats

[@adarkstranger]

I'd argue the limits were implemented to ensure certain games players werent overpowered. should they have been? maybe. but they were making a game not modelling the world

[@bradenculver7457]

They made the metric to align with 1960s era football to decide the “best” quarterback. The upper limit was seen as really out there, and the fact interceptions are incorporated require some limits. The original stat was supposed to be a season long stat, so outliers aren’t intended to impact the stat. It wasn’t meant to compare individual games, although you can use it that way, but that’s why there are limits. Like all stats, it will have limitations and uses, the issue is that this stat hasn’t been updated to reflect the reality of what it’s trying to represent. It no longer accurately reflects qb play or even passing play.

[@n0tthemessiah]

@@bradenculver7457 To your last point "issue is that this stat hasn’t been updated to reflect the reality of what it’s trying to represent" not having artificial boundaries in the first place would eliminate that issue entirely. It really makes no sense to have them at all.

[@bradenculver7457]

@@n0tthemessiah the issue is that doesn't actually solve the whole problem. For starters, the initial choices in variables are completely arbitrary. And that would also partially defeat the original intent of the stat, to try and compare qb's without some outlier impacting the stat. I really think the issues with passer rating are 1. people use it wrong, and 2. it does not reflect the modern NFL. And that's all ignoring that it focuses exclusively on... passing. Nothing else.

[@Sea_Stallion]

Let’s all take a moment of silence this man had to deep dive some really bad QB play

[@Gungho73]

Having to relive Ryan Lindley vs Mark Sanchez alone requires a complimentary beer from his boss.

[@fortynights1513]

@@Gungho731982 AFC Championship Game deserves a dishonorable mention

[@Gungho73]

@@fortynights1513 They didn't cover the field because it NEVER rains in Florida. You will never not be able to tell me that wasn't done on purpose given the Jets speed. I'm not even a Jets fan. Also if anyone is curious about the game fortynights1513 is talking about i believe that full game is uploaded on KZbin now.

[@Christianguthenberg]

Who’s here after Jared Goff went 18/18 against SEA 😂

[@sammillsy]

For those curious, Jared Goff's 18/18 game against Seattle netted him a "real" passer rating just above 190.0.

[@sammillsy]

The math: Passer rating is calculated as ((a + b + c + d)/6) x 100. For variable a, 100% completion percentage yields the highest possible value of 3.5; For variable b, 16.2 yards per attempt yields a value of 3.305; For variable c, a touchdown percentage of 11.1% yields a value of 2.222; For variable d, an interception percentage of 0% yields the highest possible value of 2.375. So a + b + c + d = 3.5 + 3.305 + 2.222 + 2.375 = 11.402. 11.402/6 = 1.9003333333. 1.9003333333 x 100 = Goff's "real" passer rating of 190.0 (when rounded).

[@BorinUltimatum]

Was just doing the math myself and can confirm, I also landed at 190 flat. Crazy that 'only' having 2 passing TDs means he falls below the 158.3.

[@Phenpaii]

In the same game Amon-Ra St. Brown technically had a "real" passer rating of 447.9 (it doesn't really count for anything since he only had 1 attempt, but I find it funny that it was in the same game)

[@pfhobia]

I love when y'all do the leg work to prove something I've been arguing. I -hate- passer rating. This video touches about 80% of why. Additional things I hate: Passer rating treats throwing the ball away as worse than taking a sack, which is objectively untrue. Passer rating ignores accuracy and mistakes made by receivers; a pass that hits the receiver in the hands but is bobbled and picked off is treated exactly the same as a pass thrown directly to a defender. I am super excited to see where this goes.

[@KeystoneHeavy58]

It weights things seemingly arbitrarily and was invented by nfl execs and pro football hall of fame employees. It's a bad stat that people blindly accept. A flaw you didn't mention: completions feed into 3 of the 4 weights: completions, yards, and TD percentages. So it really overrates high completion, low yardage players like Vikings era Sam Bradford.

[@fortynights1513]

@@KeystoneHeavy58Ergo: Players who are primarily passing to move the chains?

[@SgtHolton]

@@KeystoneHeavy58 Completions negatively feed into Yards Per Attempt and TD percentages unless they are long touchdown passes. If you throw a screen pass that goes for -2 yards, you may have increased your completion percentage but you have negatively impacted the other two metrics. It's also silly to complain that an all-in-one stat about passing counts the things involved in passing. You're going to have to count completions in multiple areas because every pass play is either a completion, an incompletion, or an interception. There are obviously problems, the scaling should be changed to fit our new understanding of the passing game. Yards/Attempt should probably be changed to air-yards per attempt, avoiding sacks should probably be addressed as well. The complaint that completions are double and triple-counted seems silly to me considering it only positively effects one measure, and the Sam Bradford year you're complaining about was a near-4,000 yard season with a 4:1 TD to INT ratio which was only 6th best in the NFL that year. I don't see the problem, Bradford was very good that year but clearly not on the level of MVP Matt Ryan or Tom Brady, both of whom ended up with much higher passer ratings because they threw the ball downfield.

[@fortynights1513]

@@KeystoneHeavy58Could it be said game managers like that are doing their job best if the passes they do throw resulted in first downs at a higher rate?

[@eliminator123456789]

Alex we love you and your love/enthusiasm for the niche side of sports! This was a great video, thanks for the effort you put into it!

[@ryanpetriello3461]

Thank you for blessing us with your charts and tables Alex 🙏🏻

[@palmmoot]

As a Ravens fan this is the best thing I've seen all season so far, kudos

[@lostalone9320]

Talk about damning with feint praise.

[@ammonlujan8073]

The beef stuff is fun, but this is why I'm subscribed to Secret Base

[@msolec2000]

The weirdest thing about this stat is that you can have two games that yield short of 158.3, and then your rating in those two games combined be 158.3 The only thing weirder is how a MLB pitcher can throw a perfect game and lose

[@Legault397]

I was about to say that's not possible but with the ghost runner it technically is now (although no pitcher has ever completed a perfect game that went beyond 9 innings so it *probably* won't ever come up)

[@hiimemily]

After sharing the spotlight with Jon in Dorktown, I'm very excited to see Alex's take on Chart Party.

[@utryping]

hi emily

[@AliceClow]

I see you everywhere

[@serraramayfield9230]

omg hi emily

[@luciomaffei3272]

The production quality of these videos is insane

[@L4JP]

Right after I watched this video, one of those outliers happened - Jayden Daniels completed 21 of 23 passes, for 254 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Without the 2.375 limit, "a" would have been 3.065, giving him a passer rating of 153.2, but instead it's only 141.7.

[@BaseballsNotDead]

Nice video. The reason for the artificial barriers is scaling. Not all 4 metrics scale the same in extreme outliers. If you look at the absolute best values for each (0% INT%, 99 YDS/ATT, 100% TD%, and 100% completion percentage), yards per attempt becomes 8 times more valuable than completion percentage and interception percentage. If you do the opposite and take the absolute worst for each (100% INT%, 0 YDS/ATT, 0% TD%, and 0% completion percentage), interception percentage becomes 30x more valuable than YDS/ATT and infinitely more valuable than TD%. This means early game QB ratings would be all over the map and look weird on a gamecast as someone could be as high as an 831.25 QB rating or as low as a -414.58 QB rating after their first pass.

[@SecretBaseSBN]

yep, just like a baseball player who homers on first plate appearance has an ops of 5.000 at that point in time, and just like a basketball player who makes first 3 has a 3-point % of 100 at that point in time. if a qb throws a 99-yard td on first pass, it should be depicted no differently

[@BaseballsNotDead]

​@@SecretBaseSBN But for OPS and 3 point percentage you're not trying to weigh 4 different stats equally (OPS does have 2, but they have their own built in barriers... still, some statisticians will criticize OPS for this). For uncapped, you could have a QB go 1/2 with a 99 yard TD pass and a pick 6 and his uncapped QB rating would be 208.3 because that TD pass is worth way way more than the pick 6 because the yards per attempt doesn't scale the same, but his normal QB rating would only be 95.8.

[@SecretBaseSBN]

idk, 208.3 sounds closer to what i think a 99-yard td & an int (how successful the int return is shouldnt and doesnt matter) should yield than 95.8, but reasonable minds can disagree as to that potential 2-pass sample

[@BaseballsNotDead]

Another extreme example. A player could go 1/4 with a 99 yard TD pass. Uncapped his QB rating would be 209.4 despite having a 25% completion percentage. The high yards per attempt and TD% scale way way higher than the terrible completion percentage.

[@dylanhoward4978]

@@SecretBaseSBN Frankly that's actually a huge problem with OPS and why the runs/wins attribution stats exist. The name implies OBP and slugging are equal, the actual formula counts slugging up to 4 times as much (mostly about double) as OBP, but OBP is actually the significantly more important of the two components.

[@lapdogofthefalseempe]

Thank you, Alex. That's the stuff that got me subscribed to SB Nation back before secret Base times.

[@denimchicken104]

This aged well. Posted just before Jared Goff went 18/18 292 and 2 TDs but only a 155 rating.

[@Hafk]

There's those numbers I've been craving. Can't wait for the next eps.

[@mafuds]

Just loved this. Congratulations for the effort. I can't wait for the next episodes

[@MrDoctorDave]

I always wondered why there were references to a QB achieving a perfect passer rating in a game, but never looked into it. Great video.

[@gakk8658]

Looking forward to some number heavy QB analysis through the years. I love this channel.

[@etrain8885]

I really appreciate a thorough breakdown of a stat. I’ve always wondered why passer rating has such an arbitrary ceiling. Phenomenal video, Alex, really looking forward to the rest of the series!

[@Vainglory14]

My bigger beef about passer rating is that it isn't a reflection of how good the passer is, it's a reflection of how successful the pass plays were as a whole - passer, blocking, receivers, playcaller. If a DB misses a tackle and your receiver houses it, congratulations on your 70 yards and TD. Hit someone on the numbers and they drop it, that'll hit your completion percentage and you don't get credit for the yards in the air. Or worse, the receiver tips it and the safety picks you off, that'll cost you. Add to that, was the pass you made the best decision? Missing a wide open receiver downfield is the same as a throwaway even though in one case it's your best option to deal with a bad situation and the other is a missed opportunity.

[@alangil40]

I came to make the same comment. I can't stand how the media talks about QB wins as if it is not a team game. Plug in any above average QB into a team with a great offensive line, running game, great receiver weapons and a great defense and they will win more games than the same above average QB playing for a terrible team. The passer rating needs to look at things like - how many times the QB made the correct or optimal read or more critically missed a read, what percentage of times they delivered a catchable ball, accuracy relative to tight windows, escapability to extend plays, time to release the football, etc. Of course, this can't be based on stats, but on some algorithm based on a review of the game footage. What I am saying is some way to divorce the QBs performance from how good or how bad a team they are playing for or against.

[@fortynights1513]

@@alangil40Those are definitely details that should be considered when evaluating how well a quarterback played individually in conjunction with the rating. But the problem with media and analysis in regards to passer rating is that many people don’t have a ton of time to go back and watch the games in their entirety, and those factors aren’t quantifiable. In some cases (especially if it’s a regular season game before 1975 or so that you are curious about), footage of the game may not have been archived or retrievable as well.

[@fortynights1513]

@@alangil40Also, you bring up competition, if you look up all games of passers ratings of 158.3, the vast majority of them probably were against below average defenses against the pass at least, if not overall. Credit the quarterbacks, coaches and offenses for executing the plays that got a rating that high, but against a better defense they may not have gotten an opportunity to do that. One exception is Fran Tarkenton in week 6 of 1970 which was against a Cardinals defense that ranked fifth by points, and sixth in opposing passer rating that season; both upper quartile in the NFL that season.

[@alexw0310]

This series is going to become my favorite thing to watch

[@kevinandrewsphoto]

I sincerely hope a part 2 is coming soon. I really want to see a top 20 or so performances by a QB with the updated passer rating stats.

[@Trillyana]

Not only that, but college football doesn't even have the arbitrary 158.3 rating cap. Not that I now how their calculation works without looking it up, but I know that they have numbers higher than 158.3

[@entropy2k196]

I would like to know the formula college football uses. It irritates me to no end that nobody ever gives the formula. At least give me a footnote, a link, something!

[@Opossum412]

@@entropy2k196 [(8.4 x Passing Yards) + (330 x Touchdown Passes) + (100 x Number of Completions) - (200 x Interceptions)] / Number of Passing Attempts As you can see, weights are built in without artificial caps, and they of course can spawn their own debates. The possible rating range is -731.6 to 1,261.6.

[@adebayooluwatosin1494]

*inexplicably* You know you’re listening to Alex Rubenstein.

[@mrswb]

A couple of thoughts: Lol Peyton was on both best and worst passer rating list. Jesus Christ what was Johnny Unitas.

[@boots797]

This was the purpose of the QBR metric that gets used today! Super interesting, can’t wait for the next video!!

[@vampirecountingmoneyup2248]

stoked for more of this series

[@deucemcallister13]

y'all really do come up with the coolest ideas.

[@ivm025]

Excited to dig in to the stories!

[@adamt7413]

Always grateful for these kinds of videos because they’re so well done but I’m almost 3 minutes in and finding the star pointer thing really distracting. I hope you all would consider taking it out of future videos or having it move less

[@TheMillennialMint]

Never understood the guardrails on the passer rating formula. Thanks for explaining!

[@noahperkins96]

Great idea for a series, can't wait to see more

[@TsuTsudios]

THANK YOU I've always thought this was just off

[@ScholarlyHiccup]

This is awesome. I love this. You’re such a nerd. I cannot wait for more of this.

[@fischerwiesen]

I loved this series - How about another one like it: The most offensive yds on an offensive drive. One would think 99 yds would be the maximum, but with penalties and going backwards without costing offensive yds the possibilities are endless

[@entropy2k196]

First, thank you for FINALLY displaying the formula for QB passer rating. Black box statistics irritate me, and I've always had an issue with rating a QB's performance without running being taken into account. Second, I suspect the results of your work reveal the answer to your question-passer rating works best as a macro-scale statistic rather than a single game statistic. Of course, since most people working in football broadcasting know very little about statistics as a science they just run with the number. I think the missing piece is to hear from the creator of the stat as to why the adjustments were made. For example, I could see an argument for putting a ceiling on completion percentage, since a throw-away sometimes is the optimal decision rather than taking a sack. Regardless, please take my constructive criticism as my respect for your very hard work and academic rigor 😃

[@PEExpert]

12:55 I love how the two names closest to Dan Pastorini are Kim McQuilken and Joe Namath. One of them had their own Dorktown segment and one won a Super Bowl MVP. Incredible.

[@beknown63]

The takeaway: Saints QBs were historically bad, until they weren’t

[@fortynights1513]

Saints first 11 seasons were as bad as anyone’s

[@robertlinn4481]

I enjoy numbers and stats but y'all really went and blew my mind doing this 🤯

[@YouTBrown]

Jared Goff posted 176.2 vs Jaguars yesterday.

[@time4toast1]

That’s so much data….. Incredible work

[@akilfahd]

I’m here because QB Jared Goff threw went 18 of 18 for 296 yards and 2 TDs and no interceptions and STILL didn’t have a perfect game

[@johnjable33]

lol same, you beat me to it

[@johnjable33]

Has been the first time a QB had more receiving touchdowns than incompletions

[@4everinpanama]

I've needed this. Thank you.

[@adamjones7891]

This is an amazing video. Itd be interesting to use a sort of "intra-game passer rating" within an individual game to the best stretches of say 10, 15, or 20, consecutive pass attempts ever.

[@uncreative5766]

I'm glad there's an (so far) unverified and not fact checked data. I'm not a Saints fan, but I think about Drew Brees's 2009 MNF game against the Patriots. He absolutely carved up the Patriots defense that day, but he didn't get the "perfect" 158.3 because he got sacked once, and you can't get sacked if you want to be "perfect," which was ludicrous, because film doesn't lie. Brees had a GAME.

[@mptness4389]

I had wondered why Tannehill's 2015 game against the Texans hadn't made your perfect passer rating list at 7:20. I went back and checked ... and he missed the attempts threshold by 1. lol 18/19, 282 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT. Matt Moore came in for the second half and went 1/1, 14 yards.

[@dianawebb7186]

alex rubenstein-led project i’m going to ascend to a higher plane of existence real quick

[@jojoCFP]

I pray this goes viral so Sports Analysts can stop using that BS on tv and talk about truly great or truly horrible games with proper context.

[@J3Puffin]

I programmed an Excel sheet once to do passer rating calcs thinking I’d do something similar. Looking forward to seeing where this goes!

[@dash_r_media]

I haven't wasted the time to invent a formula, but my basic idea is this: When attempting a pass, the optimal outcome is that you gain all the yards you need to score on that one throw, and the efficiency of that single throw is based upon the yards that are gained by that throw. Example: You're 80 yards from the endzone and your pass gains 20 yards, then your efficiency on that single throw is 0.250 Another example: You're 10 yards from the endzone and you get sacked for a loss of 5 yards. Your efficiency is -0.500 on that play I am aware that plays aren't usually designed to go all the way - for example, will run a six-yard slant route for on a third and five. If the defender slips and falls, the score can happen. Neither bad nor good luck should be counted in efficiency stats, since this kind of thing doesn't affect most plays, and usually (kind of ) evens out

[@mewr11]

Hey now, 0 and 950/6 may be nonsensical, but they're (mathematically) perfectly rational.

[@armadillolover99]

Thank you! This guy maths.

[@Aaron42J]

Pretty wild to see Payton Manning on both the artificial top and artificial bottom of the passer ratings list! I think he was hurt when he had that 0 game in Denver.

[@sniccups8390]

It's a testament to football weirdness that I recognize Bob Griese and the Purple People Eaters from earlier videos on this channel...

[@madden72]

Great video looking forward to the rest of the series. But bro equalize your volume between your segments

[@Morya58]

We need to tag this in so many talks shows comments.

[@mauriciobetimpaesleme8702]

Secret Base single-handedly making people want to learn math at school.

[@masonwicks7348]

The funny thing is, there are no limits set when calculating passer rating for college football.

[@Okman88]

A. Who’s the best all time now? B. Who’s the worst C. Any clear coach correlations? D. Please, please publish this data E. It would be interesting to map standard deviation by conference, player, team, year etc

[@vaguelysomething]

He's saying it disappears in large sample size but I'm pretty sure when NFL calculates the passer rating for the season they're not using the season stats. They're just taking the average of the 14-17 games, which is a small sample size. They don't want someone to lead the league in passer rating because they had a game with one attempt that resulted in a 99 yard touchdown

[@-PURPLE-HEAD]

No, they do use a threshold to qualify for any stat that uses averages or ratings. I think it’s like 220 pass attempts minimum

[@lainewiens]

This series is going to RULE!

[@ndrocca]

The only reason I can think of for having a ‘perfect and worst-ever threshold’ in a stat like this is that you think it is literally impossible for quarterbacks to be better or worse than whatever you set as that limiter. It makes 0 sense to not consider the possibility, especially in a small one-time sample. Also, I love that Lamar’s 2 best passing games and 2 of the actual best passing games ever are both against Miami. This series is already incredible.

[@SecretBaseSBN]

x.com/secretbase/status/1741570417905779050

[@bigideasthescholar]

That Pastorini performance is abysmal. 3 completions for 31 yards and 4 interceptions of 21 attempts and no touchdowns. I cannot imagine watching that game as a Houston Oilers fan.

[@RyBrown]

counterpoint: The wacky and nonsensical stat keeping of the NFL is perfectly suited for the the wacky and nonsensical sport of American football.

[@conorjohn490]

Yeah I recall how when QBR came out the talking heads at ESPN were talking about how Passer Rating was an inherently flawed stat. Why fix the first thing when you can offer up Value Meal #2 with a Large Cola.

[@fortynights1513]

@@conorjohn490The ESPN stat essentially operates as a an average win probability added stat. They take a look at the team’s situation at the start of every single play the quarterback was a part of and determine what the maximum win probability that could be added is, and take note of the result of every play that the player is involved in relative to what could have happened, and essentially determine the average gain relative to what could have happened on each play. It may have its uses and factors in aspects that box score stats don’t typically with its win expectancy factors, but ESPN Total QBR is an arbitrary statistic that can’t be retracted by most observers. I have one rule of every statistic I try and calculate: If I can’t write it out to people for them to check my work, then I’m not using it.

[@braydenwerner6221]

This is awesome! I wonder what the biggest swing is from the old to new

[@dfp_01]

Interception percentage is the biggest one, and it goes hand in hand with completion percentage, as quarterbacking has evolved to evaluate risks and rewards better. I think a couple years ago we reached the point where nobody had thrown even an interception per game, and that would've been unthinkable back when QBs just slung the rock wherever their heart desired and hoped their guy came down with it.

[@halflbobeef]

I hope one of the later videos breaks out the dimensions of Passer Rating (like maybe a spider chart), and then apply if they won or lost the game, so we can see what values correlate to the overall outcome.

[@nothda2211]

Peyton with both a 0 passer rating game and 158.3 passer rating games, my GOAT 😤😤

[@KingAlanI]

I had known it didn't count QB rushing (so mobile QBs get underrated), hadn't known about floors and ceilings to passing stats

[@EmmaBonn96]

I always thought the passer rating calculation was weird but I never understood it enough to understand how they were setting up artificial boundaries

[@mjbee]

I think the most surprising thing is that there were only 38 games where a QB had a perfect passer rating in the past 60 years. I feel like I've seen that happen many times.

[@loganq5152]

Sometimes we do artificially pull values toward some point to make estimates better, in statistics it's called shrinkage or regularization or penalization

[@edboy2256]

I was so worried that this was the entire video thank god theres THREE MORE. I've always been confused about why you could through all your passes into the stands and not have a 0...

[@thatguyfromak5190]

Saving the game. Great job Alex!

[@byswartz]

You basically explained the purpose of the artificial boundaries in the video, to normalize the game stat to long-term stats. No one wants to have to compare per game qbr and career qbr separately

[@Hoaxe__]

i vividly remember that 9/8/2019 lamar jackson game because i was there. i am a dolphins fan. i was with my godfather and we got sonic after the game because we left at halftime.

[@vinspad3]

Id love to see how much this affects career passer rating. Especially if we take out the completion percentage portion.