Donald Trump Wins The Presidency | 538 Politics Podcast

[@FreeSpeech1959]

Rasmussen were extremely accurate with their predictions so you should reinstate them.

[@dualsportdadz]

That Ann Selzer poll though, wtf???!!

[@bboyshr6]

@@dualsportdadz must have been done in Des Moines and Cedar Falls. All the urban areas across US voted blue again.

[@TrentSLucas]

voter intimidation. Its ok, it will be a long time before anyone takes her seriously.

[@ain92ru]

Use methodology from 2016 Get 2016-size errors Surprized Pikachu face

[@Dylan-hy2zj]

@@ain92ruit got it right in 2016 though… and used the same methods apparently.

[@jermunitz3020]

I did think it's weird that Polymarket and every betting site favoured Trump yet this poll disagreed.

[@HusseinDoha]

Those “Republican” polls (dismissed by legacy media) were -again - way more accurate than legacy media polls.

[@jeffmagic32]

Meanwhile Rasmussen Reports had the results exactly right week after week.

[@B4DDHero]

You really nailed it at 17:22, Galen. This should be shouted from the rooftops.

[@ryanmichael6592]

Unfortunately, the take out for Dems will be to waste time, wait it out, and try to carry on the same way after Trump.

[@daraorourke5798]

Indeed. Another neo liberal will be foisted upon the jaded electorate.

[@Null_Simplex]

I’d love to blame the dems, but this one is on the American public.

[@ryanmichael6592]

@Null_Simplex Same American public that they want to vote then back in right?

[@josephking1006]

LOL, you're on your own buddy. That's my Democratic take on this, good luck to you! 🤣

[@Sitbear]

@@Null_SimplexIt’s on both. It’s on voters for being stupid and it’s on Dems for not noticing that fact.

[@schowtyme]

I know this was recorded early, but it feels like the polls were much closer than the actual results, majorly undercounting Trump supporters again.

[@carlkim2577]

I agree. They will spin this as 'we were close' and 'within the margin of error'. But this clean sweep by Trump is not something the polls considered likely.

[@e-manr.486]

Dunno if that's true. They've all been 50/50 basically. So both outcomes were equally plausible. Trump's voter total percentage was essentially 51%

[@realdaybreaker8013]

​@@e-manr.486that's nationally... He exceeded 5%

[@wa-bu3ke]

@@e-manr.486nope

[@ishangupta2380]

​@@e-manr.486yeah but the chances of him winning all the battleground states is 1/128 if they were mutually exclusive. Since they are not the probability is higher but definitely not 1/2

[@squigglyblue7377]

The polls had a great night?? Which poll had New Jersey at K+4.6???

[@SuperGion915]

Tbf all of the focus was on the swing states, safe states usually have worse polling data since pollsters don't bother in having accurate populations, also same reason Nebraska Senate had bad polling, pollsters in Nebraska just aren't good

[@avinashtyagi2]

Trump looks on track to win by about 3+% of the popular vote, your model had him down by 1.2%, that means your model was 4-5% off...how is that a great night for polls in general?

[@Tresorthas]

The polls were good?! Which poll had Iowa at R+13?

[@Ch3mG33k]

29:30 - I think this is an underrated point tbh

[@MrAlexStoryteller]

Good talk by the gang. Honest, frank and non-complacent

[@witpleasure2981]

We're not 49/49, we're 51/48. Give it 4 more years of shit talk, we'll get to 53.

[@kestrelpounces]

A belated happy birthday Galen. 🎈It's my husband's bday today- he's opting to ignore it today, and celebrate this weekend. Note to self- in future years, we're celebrating *before* the election.

[@joshntn37111]

2016 polls underestimated Trump's support. 2020 polls underestimated Trump's support by even more. 2024 hmm I wonder what will happen? 😊

[@christianburgos2736]

We The PEOPLE: Here is OUR champion!!!

[@LittleBlueJug]

You guys do a great job. Galen, you'll always have my respect as someone who puts professionalism over personal preference

[@SuperGion915]

FiveThirtyEight is probably the only podcast I follow closely, it is always very interesting and notably less partisan than other ones, and always love the topics that are being talked about, I am usually not about looking big videos (+10 minutes), but in your dreams I'll miss a 538 podcast. It's been great, and will love to see what happens in the upcoming elections.

[@Chairman_Wang]

Guys my poll has a + and - spread of 50 and i predict this race is at 50/50 This is effectively what pollsters, like on this very video, want you to think is good data. Backpedaling after the results is a classic at this point and its great entertainment for the rest of us to see the cope.

[@brianmulholland2467]

My take on this is that this is a giant own-goal by Democrats. They had multiple chances and ways to win this, and they self-sabotaged at every turn. Full disclosure - I'm the 'double hater' everyone talked about so much through this election cycle, BUT I definitely regarded Trump as 'a bit worse'. That said, I rolled my eyes at numerous points during this thing because Democrats were handed the ball and told to toss it into the open goal, given multiple chances, and couldn't do it. Some of their failure points: 1) Trying to gaslight us into thinking Biden wasn't a giant failure as a President. Dude. We're living through it. We know. Stop trying to convince me how great the economy is when I'm LIVING IT. This made Democrats seem elitist and out of touch, and that affected Biden and then Kamala. Y'all seemed like you had no idea what was going on. 2) Trying to trick the country into believing Biden was fine when we could ALL SEE that he wasn't fine. Then pretending to be surprised when he flopped in the early debate. And the fact that Kamala never came clean about knowing Biden was a vegetable the last four years. Also, once he stepped down, Dems should have held a micro-primary. Pick your 3 best candidates, hold a debate, let the delegates at the convention vote in an open convention. You all knew Kamala was a bad candidate. You rejected her in the 2020 primary. She's never won a competitive election. She did better than I expected, but still not great. 3) Kamala making almost no effort to appeal to moderates. Oh, sure, she would use words like 'Opportunity Economy', but then her proposals were all standard Democrat 'buy your vote' and 'free money if you vote for me' type proposals. There was no moderation in them at all. And I mean...national rent control? Really? You're going to try to blame the grocery stores for inflation rather than admit bad policies? 4) Kamala not distancing herself from Biden. I kind of don't want to blame her for this because she's the sitting VP, and she got her nomination through Biden stepping down, so I totally understand not wanting to stab him in the back...but it's been a bad 4 years. You can't just say "he's fine, everything's fine." when someone asks you what Biden policy you would do different. She tied HERSELF to an unpopular incumbent administration. She can be polite about it, but she HAD to define herself as her own woman...and she never did. She was just a younger, more feminine Biden. And that's not a good thing to be. The Biden part, not the others. 5) The delay of the Trump trials was absolutely devastating. To me, Trump's behavior following the last election was disqualifying. The Dems could run anyone short of Zombie Hitler and I would have voted against Trump. But not everyone followed that story as closely as I did. Jack Smith trying to time the trials with the Republican primary was unethical, but it was also STUPID. And don't fool yourself into thinking that election case took 3 years to put together. That was a 6 month job. Someone told him to make sure they came late enough so Trump could be the nominee. The country needed those trials as a reminder of who this guy is, and just how far he went to try to overturn a legal election. Most Republicans think he's being prosecuted for talking. They have no idea what he really did. Once those trials started to be delayed, someone needed to find another way to really detail this stuff to the country...and that never happened. 6) This is going to sound contradictory to 5, but Harris hurt herself when she dropped the 'happy warrior' act of her early campaign and started going negative in the last couple months. Seeming presidential and above it was a strength. When she started going negative and calling Trump fascist and all that...I think that took some of the new-car-smell off of her. Let subordinates go negative. You stay positive and optimistic and PRESIDENTIAL. 7) I think Democrats massively overestimated the impact of abortion and project 2025. Yes, these things are important to hardcores...who are going to vote anyway. Nobody in the middle gives a crap about a conservative think tank paper that Trump has never read because he never reads anything. And Trump's abortion position is actually CLOSER to the majority of the country than the Democrat's is. He's NOT in line with the evangelicals...though for some reason they think he is. Almost every ad I saw, aside from the ones asking for money, was about abortion and project 2025. Not the economy. Not foreign war chaos. Y'all MASSIVELY overestimate how much this resonates outside your echo chamber. Republicans do the same in the other direction, but I feel like they made the mistake less in this cycle. Anyway, that's MY list of why Harris lost. I wish she'd won. I voted for her (albeit I don't live in a swing state), but I held my nose as I did, and I can understand why alot of moderates wouldn't. Democrats really made this possible. Trump was eminently beatable. Democrats just dropped the ball.

[@og_paulsack]

Honestly good insights, thanks for sharing

[@Sitbear]

Harris did nothing BUT appeal to moderates. She dropped all her previous progressive positions (minimum wage, universal healthcare, student loan forgiveness) and promised to close the border while campaigning with Liz Cheney rather than Bernie Sanders. Practically the only policy which remains from 2020 was abortion.

[@AdrianColley]

Biden appointed his first Attorney General in March 2021. Therefore, the end of April 2021 was enough time to have Trump indicted. And the facts support an indictment for levying war against the United States. He should have been imprisoned without bail because of the great danger he posed. And those stolen national defense secrets would have been seized much more quickly.

[@Sitbear]

@@brianmulholland2467 almost no effort to appeal to moderates? What world do you live in? Kamala did almost nothing BUT appeal to moderates. She dropped all her progressive positions (like universal healthcare, student loan relief, minimum wage, etc.) and campaigned with Liz Cheney while saying she supports fracking!

[@hellasino]

Disaster night for all posters especially after 2016. They did not learn at all eventually.

[@quiet451]

Thanks, Galen, for all you do. This podcast has provided countless hours of thoughtful entertainment and information. You guys are best!

[@ryanleffler58]

Thank YOU Galen

[@itstotallykyle7210]

Anyone else disappointed by the 538 live blog?

[@realScottThomas]

Thought it was just me. Last election was so much better.

[@swiftflight7927]

I hate to break it to the American people, but they are goldfish.

[@RichardKing-sx6xc]

You're a coconut 🥥 😆😂😅🤣

[@joshntn37111]

I don't have gills bro. I got Trump fever though baby!!!

[@MrJorgitogrande]

Happy birthday Galen! Have been with you and the podcast all these years. Many more to follow

[@FireEverLiving]

Happy birthday Galen, and thanks for the great coverage! I was just thinking last episode that you are one of the most skilled podcast hosts in my feed.

[@justinbartholomew982]

Oversimplified, I think the 2024 election came down to two things: approval rating and white, non-college educated voters. In 2016, Trump ran on the fact that he was different from the "career politicians" in Washington, and that he could bring the change that disenfranchised voters wanted, despite his other flaws. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders ran on the same premise, but lost in the primary to Hillary Clinton, despite being viewed much more favorably nationally (1). During the run for president, Clinton's national approval dropped drastically to 15 points underwater (2), and that was what doomed her at the polls on election night. In 2020, Trump's poor handling of Covid-19 put him at 8 points underwater on his approval rating (3), while Biden still had a popularity boost from Obama's presidency. However, despite Biden's 53% approval rating(4), he barely squeaked out a victory over Donald Trump. Since then, however, Biden's approval has plummeted to just 40% due to leaving Afghanistan, and it's never recovered. The Democrats should have never allowed him to try and run for a second term, and dropping out with just 3 months to go gave them little time to find a candidate. For the 2024 election, the Democrats really only had three options: Tim Walz (governor of Minnesota): Walz won re-election for governor in 2022, and also managed to gain control of both the state house and senate with his strong showing. A more conservative democrat, Walz is able to relate well to non-college educated voters due to his more "normal" background of being a vet, high school teacher, football coach, and family man. Walz is also very personable and likeable, and as seen in his lone VP debate, runs favorably amongst most voters(5). He also has passed well-received policies, such as providing free school lunches to children. His only downsides are the lack of national name recognition, as well as his handling of the George Floyd riots. Bernie Sanders (senator of Vermont): The most well known of the three, Sanders was the runner-up in the last two democratic primaries. His favorability rating is the highest of any potential democratic candidate(6), and he also comes across as very genuine and likeable for his progressive policies like Medicare 4 All. His biggest flaws are his progressive policies and his age, but Donald Trump isn't young either and also has some controversial policies under his belt as well. Kamala Harris (vice president, former senator of California): Harris was a Democratic party favorite, but she was never a super popular candidate nationally in her primary run in 2020(7). Her approval rating has also tanked as part of Biden's administration(8), and while she has good speaking skills from her time as attorney general, she has been wishy washy on her political views and has no religion, family or community involvement that people can relate to. Harris was facing an uphill battle from the beginning with such little time and a -15 approval rating, and despite a good debate performance, she was never going to be able to make inroads amongst white, non college-educated voters, which is the largest part of Trump's base(9). In spite of his flaws, people are familiar with Trump and know what they're getting, and with the economy and immigration at the top of people's minds in the exit polls, Harris didn't introduce any significant policy either currently or as part of her presidential run to change people's minds. Finally, although small, there's also likely a penalty just for being a woman, and despite Harris championing abortion rights, that only effects 50% of the population compared to the economy. Conclusion: Out of all three candidates, I think Bernie Sanders (with policy) or Tim Walz (younger, more relatability) had the best chance of appealing to the large base of white, non-college educated white voters that Trump typically carries. They both have positive approval ratings and they could also easily distance themselves from Biden's unpopular administration and push for a "fresh start". Democrats could also have improved their odds with a Latino VP pick in order to try and win back some Latino voters, but VP picks don't seem to really matter much unless they're really polarizing like Sarah Palin was. If you ask voters, what each politician can do for them right now, then I think the choice is very simple: Trump is promising change and to go against the "system" that has hurt voters, while Harris wants keep the status quo, which just hasn't been popular the last three years. I would love to hear your thoughts on the podcast in the coming days, and I also thought it would be interesting to mention how something similar happened in the past. In the 2000 election, Al Gore, Clinton's former VP, also suffered from Clinton's declining approval rating in his race as well, which led to the election coming down to the wire: (10) Sources: 1. www.cnn.com*/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/index.html 2. abcnews.go.com*/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050 3. projects.fivethirtyeight.com*/trump-approval-ratings/ 4. projects.fivethirtyeight.com*/biden-approval-rating/ 5. www.forbes.com*/sites/mollybohannon/2024/10/02/tim-walz-jd-vance-polls-both-candidates-favorability-increases-post-debate/ 6. thehill.com*/homenews/campaign/3617170-sanders-has-highest-favorability-among-possible-2024-contenders-poll/ 7. www.cnbc.com*/2019/08/20/kamala-harris-slides-in-2020-democratic-presidential-primary-polls.html 8. projects.fivethirtyeight.com*/polls/approval/kamala-harris/ 9. www.cnn.com*/2024/09/11/politics/election-poll-trump-harris-debate/index.html 10. www.pewresearch.org*/politics/1999/04/17/clinton-fatigue-undermines-gore-poll-standing/ KZbin won't allow me to add links so I added an asterisk after each .com

[@sucafrutpi]

Can we get Nathaniel on NPR and MSNBC? He GETS it.

[@yesterday1396]

I don't think Americans realise just how bad things are going to get for them. 😔

[@EarlyRiser71]

It's her methodology. They still call landline numbers. She's waaayyyy outdated.

[@Randomluck]

We ❤ Elder Galen

[@Chaparro585]

Happy Birthday

[@forestskilbred9461]

Happy birthday, and thanks for providing some really intelligent background for everything that's been going on, nice to have some really level headed, data-focused people talking about things objectively.

[@Bogeymania]

She was just such a bad candidate. They were going to need someone amazing to get people to vote again after how bad the last four years were.

[@haroldji7240]

29:24 Epic🤣

[@MathGPT]

Smart move not turning on the camera

[@johnchessant3012]

this country is so screwed

[@wa-bu3ke]

She's NOT viewed more favorably. Your polling just sucks

[@Me1le]

You can say what you want, but a Trump victory is great for the meme economy.

[@gneissnicebaby]

Oh is that the economy people were talking about when they said Trump will be better on that issue?

[@bluraggon6674]

oh your not wrong. The number of Cofefe's are going through the roof and doge is riding high

[@BadOompaloompa79]

Not going to need 538 anymore. The American experiment is over.

[@nittanynittany]

Hilariously out of touch

[@TrentSLucas]

I'm sorry that the deep state was not able to install their selected candidate and override the will of the American people. Look, Harris was dumb, but that does not mean you have to be dumb also.

[@wendysnelgrove5870]

@@nittanynittany It's fascinating to me that MAGAs won, and in response to the concerns of the almost 50% of people who did not vote for Trump and are concerned, the response is not to reassure and bring Americans together, but instead to continue with us/them dichotomy.

[@kaisersozeh7845]

​​@@nittanynittany Your shining city on a hill, your "here, right matters" - the liberal and democratic ideals that built wealth and stability in the US and then internationally - none of it matters (enough), if you believe it will reduce the price of gasoline. It won't, by the way, but you don't care enough about reality to check, as long as it makes you feel better. The Experiment has taken a big hit, even if the wheels haven't come off. Yet.

[@nothankyooo]

Only on day one

[@Sitbear]

You can say the pollsters did well, but it doesn’t matter. People always say pollsters did poorly, regardless of what happens

[@avinashtyagi2]

Well the 538 national average was 1.2% Harris, right now the National PV is 3.3% Trump It may change, but right now is a 4.5% error That's not small

[@Sitbear]

@ That’s about an average miss historically, although predictions are the margins will shrink to around 1.5

[@avinashtyagi2]

@@Sitbear Even with a shrink to a Trump 1.5% win, would still put them off by 3.7% (their model assumed 2.2% win for Kamala), not huge, but still a sizable error, larger than the size of the 2016 miss

[@Sitbear]

@@avinashtyagi2 Woah, are you using the adjusted model whereas previously you were using only the regular average? And again, 3.7% is not that big a miss historically

[@avinashtyagi2]

@@Sitbear Seems I did, my bad, but even using the smaller 1.2%, would make the error at 2.7%, still larger than the 2016 error, and while maybe not historically big, is still a sizable error

[@kaisersozeh7845]

Love Galen's work, notably good at this.

[@futbol4everlove]

Congressman Dean Phillips was a reasonable centrist that could have performed better as the Democratic nominee but the liberal corporate media suppressed his Presidential campaign when the DNC effectively closed the 2024 Democratic primaries on him. Not very democratic of the Democratic Party to not allow opposition within their party like Congressman Dean Phillips to have a platform to reach voters during his primary run and use lawsuits to try to remove Phillips from the ballot in several states 2024 Democratic presidential primaries.

[@nm2358]

He has no national presence; Democrats would have been better off running any of the more popular governors this cycle, as far removed from the Biden Administration (bec of the average voter associating it with inflation and Immigration). He might have done better as a pure unknown against Trump specifically than Harris, but then again, Harris is the 2019 primary loser they ran as the 2024 nominee (for reasons).

[@TrentSLucas]

Yes, it was a bad move for the Democrat party to abandon democracy.

[@naomieyles210]

The 1968 Democratic National Convention riots left a scar on memories of senior members of the party, and there's no way they would risk a repeat. Given the timing of Biden stepping down, a vicious primary contest would have lost them the general election. A friendly primary contest might have worked, but these things are rarely friendly.

[@dj4aces]

I would argue that the issue wasn't who the better candidate was. The issue was that Harris had very little time to prepare because Biden didn't step down from the race until July. Had he come out in, say, December 2023 and said he won't seek a second term, we'd have seen a field of candidates go through a debate/primary process. Instead, we're gonna find out just how wrong they are about how "funny" Trump really is. Hold on tight, because it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[@TrentSLucas]

@ you guys lost the general election anyways, and you lost democracy in the process. Sucks to be a Democrat fascist.

[@humbleforest]

浪子帶著一桶金回國。 如果可能的話，幫助他的無家可歸的人有一個家。 A prodigal returns to his country with a pot of gold. If possible by helping his homeless people with a home.

[@pawnmove]

Gender dynamic? Kamala was clearly out of her depth. A good female candidate (Nikki, Tulsi, etc.) would have done much better.

[@MrTripleAgamer]

Hell ya great night! Down with woke!

[@vl8962]

😂😂😂

[@bboyshr6]

Should have gone with Shapiro for VP. Dems went for a white teddy bear Walz to appease the racists but it backfired when he lost his debate. Appeasing is never the answer. I believe racism ultimately won this election.

[@Noschool100]

Doubt it would have mattered

[@TrentSLucas]

This comment is why Trump won and won bigly. You don't get it because you are willfully ignorant. How sad.

[@blaubarschbube4325]

"have gone" not "have went"

[@KeyDash753]

The Dems lost by a lot. Maybe Harris being a non-white woman mattered some, maybe choosing Walz over Shapiro mattered some. But it seems reasonably clear that a lot of people had already made up their mind based on inflation and border issues. Walz may have lost the debate, but he was excellent in his other campaigning. I think he was in general a pretty good candidate, and with some debate training could be a much stronger candidate than Harris or Biden in some future presidential election.

[@bboyshr6]

@ we won’t know now, right…when the numbers are this close I wish dems would have used the fact that JD Vance was a train-wreck up until that debate. All that we needed was someone to stare him down when he used his Yale Law skills to be slick and lie with poise. A state attorney general would not have allowed him to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.

[@riskphilly]

Polling is a flawed science

[@maryreeves357]

😢

[@joseSanchez-ej2oh]

Ha ha 🫵

[@cleokey]

Trump Vance simply equals freedom for Americans from government suppression! Tulsi for Sec of State 😊

[@daraorourke5798]

Freedom from government. Fixed it for you...

[@Sitbear]

I mean, Trump has consistently called for crackdowns on protesters, wanted to criminalize flag-burning, and take rights away from women and LGBT+ people, but other than that you’re right. He is very free from accountability for all his crimes, because he controls the government now.

[@markg3169]

So many gay men having meltdowns. The media should really be ashamed for stocking so much fear in people.

[@nm2358]

Trump would push them off a cliff to Evangelicals waiting with pitchforks in hand for their praise. The guy had his goons clear out a church group for an upside down bible photo, regularly had to be rebuffed by his generals about marching US forces on US protestors or to the border. Now, 2025 is poised to be going after just about everyone under the sun for identity politics.

[@youtubeconnoisseur3215]

Remember when your entire party melted down and refused to accept an election? It was televised and a months long process of melting down. Politics is important im not gay but I care about things and this is a thing which is upsetting but we will accept the election and move on that’s something your party clearly can’t do.

[@wa-bu3ke]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHA

[@Peter-o9n6p]

So everybody here should be fired, right? Nearly criminal level of tampering and misdirection. How do you sleep??

[@Debrahaynes1]

Praise to God Almighty!!!!'m favoured, $34k every 3weeks! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless 🇺🇸 ❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@jennetteseymour4985]

Thank you Jesus ❤

[@Canuckvik]

Jesus would never vote Trump.

[@hypnokitten6450]

You chose to vote for the anti-Christ for the promise of 3 pieces of silver, to vote against everything Jesus ever stood for. Don't you dare let Jesus' name pass through your lips

[@jackrice2770]

Pretty sure Jesus isn't an eligible voter in the US. Unless, of course, you were referring to Jesus, your landscaper.

[@hypnokitten6450]

@@jackrice2770 99% sure Trump would deport him if He visited