Here's Who Will Win Eurovision 2024

[@escgabe]

wahoo i was right

[@itjustmeLam]

After I read the comments, it seems that there is a similar situation to last year, where fans hope that Baby Lasagna will win the trophy, but then Nemo got it instead (similar to how fan-favorite "Cha Cha Cha" did not win ESC 2023 because of that "queen", even though that song won the public votes...) But still, I still happy to see Switzerland finally got a ESC trophy after 36 years!

[@cristianosousa2220]

That sad the swice win

[@hiskeplantinga1519]

Thumbs up, your analysis was spot on. Only thing that escaped your notice was Israël.

[@michellemaine2719]

@@hiskeplantinga1519 because their song was mid

[@anatorres8043]

You were brave enough to go against the crowd! 👏🏽

[@icreatetv4757]

Could you’ve imagined the last 24 hours?

[@overwavezz]

Here after Nemo's win and I think they did a great job. Though I wanted Bambie to win Nemo deserved it just as much as them. I feel Joost would have won if it weren't for this crazy disqualification

[@itjustmeLam]

Yeah, justice for... Joost!

[@sebastiandendulk3275]

Joost would not have won ...

[@Wailmur]

He got 12th in the jury

[@SofiaMelander]

​@@WailmurBased on a recording..

[@Wailmur]

@@SofiaMelander regardless, his vocals(in the semi that is) were so bad that regardless of if he would've got 12th or not there's no way he would've finished high enough in the jury to win. Even if he won the televote the margin wouldn't have been that big down to croatia

[@rptfdr8217]

Italy at Eurovision MAhmood MAneskin MAhmood MArko mengoni Angrlina MAngo MAmma mia

[@PretentiousStuff]

MAdonna

[@ckncert]

you could even go back a year (2018): ermal Meta e farbizio Moro

[@sallycar3114]

What a coincidence

[@roca7268]

They say that the 2020 contest got canceled because of covid, but it was actually because Diodato didn't start with M. The universe couldn't take it (Kidding, of course. Covid was a serious thing)

[@GoldenGlobeSongContest]

MAtaly

[@williamsoule9067]

Just hoping we don't get the worst-case-scenario winner... remember to vote, people.

[@Lappali]

rather let them win, giving the EBU money is bad

[@williamsoule9067]

@@Lappali they already got their money with participation fees. I don’t think pettiness should let this contest die.

[@chromaticasforecast4419]

​@@williamsoule9067 Srry but, how is voting for the sake of not letting another specific country win not petty of yourself?

[@williamsoule9067]

@@chromaticasforecast4419 I should not have to explain why voting anything but a certain country is not petty but is morally correct

[@12_terabyte57]

@@LappaliHow so is giving the EBU money bad? I have an idea of what you’re going to respond but I’m still curious.

[@esciveta5507]

There is so many televote friendly songs this year... Doing well in jury could help a lot. I see Italy taking it, it is both and jury and tele bait.

[@esciveta5507]

France has top 3 written all over it too

[@thales-]

I totally agree with you, right now the only country I see winning is Italy. I don't think the jury will put Croatia in the top 5, and I believe (and hope) that Italy will get more points from both jury and televoting than Switzerland.

[@alionele]

I think Nemo’s song is both jury and televote friendly as well. I would prefer Croatia or Switzerland to win instead of Italy as Italy won recently. Also prefer their songs.

[@YaelBewford]

Seriously Italy n france😂😂 What... Sorry but Italy has sent a boring Spanish song,that has nothing special. Same as the Netherlands... How many pills do you take

[@horrormask4500]

@@YaelBewfordcry

[@alexwood9683]

Ireland after the semi final genuinely feels like a contender for me... that performance was unbelievable

[@karinaisakina409]

Satanic song ...(

[@sofzo]

​@@karinaisakina409 christ cult much?

[@iceshades]

You have no idea what satanism is...​@@karinaisakina409

[@paraskint]

​@@sofzocry

[@skpn123]

demon spawn........ literally

[@grahambarlow9415]

I've followed all of your videos throughout the season. I'm pretty much in line with the contenders with bets on one of them, but I'll be voting Estonia on the 11th! Thank you for the content! All the best!

[@Lumpicikagazg]

I'll vote for Estonia too, and hoping Croatia to win

[@motherofslavs8761]

I hope Estonia goes to the final so I can vote 🗳 my favs.

[@azarias5666]

@@motherofslavs8761 Same, I'd be very sad if it doesn't manage to enter the finals.... I'll give them my 12 points

[@malypavel25]

I think Switzerland will win, but I really want Croatia to win too. Third is Europapa in my opinion.

[@ballyhigh11]

Well this video aged well! Brilliant analysis and congrats for a prescient prediction!

[@Leakampff]

**Runs into the room** it'll be Ireland **runs away** #crownthewitch

[@noem.7430]

the witch for the win! #crownthewitch

[@erinnadia0409]

After that rehearsal clip, I can see it! CROWN THE WITCH

[@Modernwildturkey]

Can't wait for Millstreet 2025 ❤

[@erinnadia0409]

@@Modernwildturkey Ireland winning in Sweden would be so iconic haha way to take back our title 😂

[@linzimcmaster5717]

#crownthewitch

[@atlanta2076]

Dang! You saw right through us. Swiss here. And yes! We are dead inside! We NEVER show emotions. Even when we attend a concert of our most beloved act, it takes us like one hour until we go... Yay?

[@ely03cassandra]

I didn’t expect you to predict Nemo as the winner since so many people seem to favour all the other songs you’ve mentioned. That’s why I’m very happy and I hope you are right and that you will still predict Nemo as the winner after watching their whole performance. Greetings from Switzerland 🇨🇭

[@tomislavm8789]

Nope, public wont wote for that. Majority of votes come from regular viewers who care only about what they see and hear in that 3 minutes on saturday (they don't care or know about 'story', 'meaning' or anything like that) and they will see a guy dressed as boiled flamingo jumping around and singing about hell and some codes while, for some reason unknown to them, doing opera and rap in the meantime.

[@deinHELD1]

@@tomislavm8789 throwing shade doesn’t make people vhange their,opinion. as if Baby Lasagne does anything better in these points? its a man wearing make-up, puffy arms and knittery singing about his cat, cow and non-sensish „rim tim tagi dim“ in a rock-techno-mess… the only thing that carries Croatia this far is the story of Baby Lasagna and the fact it would be the first win for croatia. So all your arguments are just invalid… but 10 years ago people made fun of „a bearded lady with a generic bond song“ and probably the homophobic backlash made people tuned in and voted for the symbol and the message she stood represented. Nemo brings the same potential for a new generation… so keep throwing your shade as public as possible.

[@tomislavm8789]

@@deinHELD1 So stating obvious facts is now 'throwing shade'? 😂 'Throwing shade' would be to criticise, make fun and laugh at Nemo's decision to be adressed as 'they' although he's got a weener as a 'he'. That's 'throwing shade', not saying that the costume is beyond ridiculous and performance not even a lttle exciting. 10 years ago homophobes were making fun of Conchita as a person. No one is making fun of Nemo as a person but of ridiculous costume that makes no sence or has nothing to do with this song. The costume is one of reasons Nemo fell from first place. Bookies saw public reaction to it and acted accordingly. If you have missed it, no one is making fun of Nemo wearing a skirt, which he does (i even think it might be tribute to the horror Celine Dion was wearing in 1988. when she won. If that's true, kudos for that) just of that whatewer this pink thing is. Nemo brings potential in this costume how exactly? To whom? And potential for what? To wear Jim Henson's houte couture? We are talking about costume and performance, not about Nemo as a person, even though you tried to make it that way. Btw. No one has to throw any 'shade', the costume did it already much better and much faster then any person could.

[@Rash23215]

​@@tomislavm8789see u on the 11th mate.....

[@tomislavm8789]

@@Rash23215 Sure, but why? To talk about conspiracies that explain why Nemo did not win?

[@erinnadia0409]

After watching rehearsals I think Italy may have the win this year now! I'm rooting for BL and Nemo though! If either Switzerland or Croatia won I'll be so happy ❤

[@roelandoosterom6310]

U do have to tell the people that Joost has a emotional ending at the end of the song. He says at the end of the song '' We all just people, it is not about right or wrong and i have listened to u dad..''. And after the rehearsal he cries. So skip the happy hardcore breakdown and look at the message, maybe this the jury will be motivated to give Joost extra points..

[@taniaphillips9766]

It is that moment that makes this song. The first time I heard it, it lost me halfway through and I turned it off it annoyed me. Then I heard the story and I watched it and got it - then I saw the rehearsal piece and liked the song, lived with the annoying tune but the end reduced me to tears and I'd vote for it because of that juxtaposition.

[@izzzy03]

what bothers me from Joost is whole PR about his personal story and traumas, and then song is written by 7 people... SEVEN songwriters are needed to write one personal story? song itself is good, and catchy but because all of hype it looks to me as AGT/BGT/American Idol shows, where you need to sell sad and dramatic story first before you start to sing, so you can fish jury on some empathy .. Bohemian Rhapsody is greatest personal story in history and yet has one single songwriter

[@roelandoosterom6310]

@@izzzy03 The thing is Bohemian Rapsody is in everything a song nobody can touch. Only Swedish songs if you look on that have a few story writers and their performances in Eurovision history are supposed to be perfect. I am.glad that Netherlands tries to try to something else than what we see the last years

[@izzzy03]

@@roelandoosterom6310 point is that PR should avoid selling personal story, it would be much better if they go just for catchy fun party tune...and its not just Joost, several other songs have same issue

[@ttheone3518]

We will go from hating the juries last year to praising them this year because of 1 song that Gabe didn't mention that everyone knows can rock the boat in the televote this year...

[@Zeetana1]

And which is that?

[@teo43]

gosh you were so right lmao

[@ikamp3]

Switzerland will win due to huge number of votes from Jury.

[@teo43]

a pretty spot on prediction

[@ikamp3]

@@teo43 ❤️❤️❤️ I did well 🫣

[@chromaticasforecast4419]

I feel like it essentially comes down to whether juries can get behind Croatia and if the Netherlands doesn't take too much of their televote (kinda same ish audience; "joke" entry that's camp/weird but fun). I feel like the Netherlands kinda come off as not as gp friendly as Croatia. Switzerland could fail to sweep the televote and pull smth like Sam Ryder or less, and Italy's staging feels overwhelming imo but if everyone got behind it...

[@YaelBewford]

Dude for god sake, stop hyping europapa... The song s just bad and it s also appealing for some northern Europeans...

[@chromaticasforecast4419]

@@YaelBewford I have it in my bottom 5 what are you on 💀💀 However, it's clearly a fan favorite and potentially televote high score that's basically the same demographic that Croatia

[@YaelBewford]

A ok my bad then,a mistake

[@YaelBewford]

WHY juries should evaluate the Europapa bs 😂 Unless you mean if it comes down to Croatia or the Netherlands, otherwise BOTH songs have terrible vocals in my opinion... If someone will make the juries happy,that s either Nemo or Marina Satti.

[@YaelBewford]

Sam Ryder 😂🤣😂🤣👍🏼 Yes ok decent comparison BUT Nemo s song s better i think. The ONLY thing that i m afraid is his clothes, because the latest critics aren't the best ones.

[@steventsakiris4439]

All odds and predictions will change dramatically right after the semifinals, depending on what we are going to watch on television

[@saudade_saudade977]

Italy went: Mahmood Måneskin Mahmood Marco Mengoni Mango A lot of M‘s indeed

[@didonegiuliano3547]

Mussolini tribute indeed

[@Hennelina]

I'm so happy there are so many contenders for the win. What a year for Eurovision!

[@baroncicala1934]

After the rehearsals some of these predictions sound a little obsolete. For example when he mentioned that Ukraine" lacks that "little bit of magic " needed to win. Probably from what we have seen that "little bit of magic" will be the staging. Ukraine is a very STRONG contender to the win, probably much more than Switzerland.

[@tomislavm8789]

I don't belive that Ukraine will do that good. Their song is monotone as hell. Same two sentences over and over again for 2,5 minutes on boring generic beat. That short operatic attempt to change the monotone voice is not enogh. No staging can push that hard enough to get top 3 of both public and jury which is how they could win. Neither juries or public will give them enough votes to be first. Third is the best I think they can get with current performance, after Croatia and Italy. Which one of those two will win depends on how many points will Croatia get from juries. Italy will probably be in top 4/top 3 with both, so if Croatia lands outside top 5 with juries, Angelina is winner even though Croatia will win public votes. But I do agree that Switzerland will maybe get to top 5, Netherlands will be lucky to get top 10 with probably 5 points from juries.

[@baroncicala1934]

@@tomislavm8789 Don't know bro, i don't like the song but you know, esc average audience already showed to appreciate this kind of boring very well sang songs seasoned with blatantly epic stage. And the juries too. God i hope i'm wrong.

[@tomislavm8789]

@@baroncicala1934 I don't like it also. The forced hype over it when it came out was just ridiculous. It's true that 800.000 ukranians voted for it in Vidbir, but they don't vote in Eurovision for it so that information is irrelevant for predicting final score. Tvorchi had much higher quality song with much better and inovative staging and they finished 6. I don't see higher place this year either.

[@musicm1rage623]

I think you are wrong in many ways. Ukraine is indeed strong contender. And please do not underestimate Ukrainian diaspora throughout the world (as this year whole world can vote). Plus, we have seen a great improvement of staging which is one of the best staging this year. We still haven’t seen all the details from Ukrainian staging as the director for this staging was a very talented girl who did videoclips for many celebrities. I think Switzerland and Italy should be aware of their powerful contender Ukraine, cause people seem to underestimate their power a lot 😉

[@tomislavm8789]

@@musicm1rage623 Staging can not make regular song sound unique. Ukraine was first in odds for some time last year, just like this one. Not because the songs were that good, but because it's Ukraine. The moment better songs showed up, they fell down. Diaspora did not help Tvorchi to get higher then 6th place, even though the song and staging were much better then this year. I belive this year might be the same. But, this year juries and public also have much more contemporary, better and original songs to give their votes to. France, Italy, UK, Croatia, Greece, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Azerbaijan, Switzerland, Denmark (If they get through), even Germany might get more votes from juries. The costumes are a combination of what Madonna wore in Tel-aviv (metal brest plate, shoulder shield) in different colour, rock as a prop is already used by Serbia few songs before, lyrics are repetative, music is monotone, there's no real culmination of the song beside her walking up the prop (it's almost identical image to soviet era Red army monument 'Victory' in Bratislava, but on bigger scale. google it). By what's been shown so far, it looks like there was not much thought put in staging or costumes unlike last year when it looked really original and good. Spain has a horrible singer, but the song is cringe fun and staging is so epic and well thought out that people would not care and will vote for them. Spain and Portugal are the only performances that use those led blocks on ceiling, and they use it excellent. Even her 70's inspired black pants have a good idea behind it and make her stand out from the bright orange-rad backdrop. That's how you make a song pop out of crowd. As I said before, if this was entry from any other country beside Ukraine, like Moldova or Romania, we would be talking about potential NQ, not winer.

[@casuallycruelx]

first song reminds me of electric callboy (by a lot), the band that germans hoped would be our candidate for the previous esc finale. but the band got told they were not serious enough to be played on the radio or smth so they didn't even get the chance. i will never get over this, lol.

[@xZeroOffical]

So was Cha cha cha. Croatian song seems to be heavily inspired by Cha cha cha.

[@enigma8svemir468]

​@@xZeroOfficalNe, hrvatska pjesma je inspirirana političkom situacijom u Hrvatskoj, a napisana je puno prije i uopće nije bila namjenjena za ES..ali eto našla je svoj put do ES, ostalo je povijest 😺

[@Iamyouiay]

I agree : to follow the longest comment : One notable difference between Europe and the US in music is our appreciation for humbleness over self-confidence or arrogance and our celebration of virtuosity over immediateness. While Ukraine could be the most deserving winner due to their unique understanding of Eurovision, France and Switzerland are strong contenders with exportable talents that could elevate Europe's image.Italy is doing Italy and M is for Madonna 🫶🏽 Switzerland, especially, holds the potential to emerge victorious, reflecting our desire for Europe to be associated with top-tier but authentic music. I also think that other entries, such as those from Malta and Australia, could be dark horses akin to past successes like Rosa Linn or Chanel that may be right on time for a surprise or a revenge win. Not even mentioning Ireland’s need and ability to hit back and Lithuania’s so long overdue win (I want to marry that language)… It’s gonna be a mess ❤

[@tomislavm8789]

Out of all of them, only Italy and Croatia have actuall chance for win. They have performers who don't look like payed actors on stage pretending to be someone else, not to mentin actually good and catchy songs. And both are charismatic as hell. Those are the main igredients of winner recipe.

[@Krissi2008]

I just want Norway to win man. Gåte deserves it.

[@esc_stan_uk]

Same

[@12_terabyte57]

Same… but because that’s sadly probably not happening, I find myself just rooting for others…

[@Redu3]

Legit. This is my dream scenario

[@haydenacott7962]

I love Norway, I’d love to see it win. But it’s an acquired taste I think and I don’t think it will appeal to enough people.

[@mo4848]

Why more than others?

[@eoghandowney537]

1. Croatia 2. Switzerland 3. Italy 4. Ukraine 5. France.

[@eipofficiel]

But where is Greece in this top 5 ??? Good luck Marina from France !!!

[@Ελλάδα-ω3θ]

Ι was waiting to see somewhere Greece in this top6. But as it seems everyone believes that Greece has no chance. Anyways best of luck for the nice France from Greece!!

[@Ίων-π8ρ]

Greece is nowhere whatever we send. The god himself to send as a Greek entry will be out of top5. 😂

[@lidu6363]

Marina is definitely gonna be top 5 but I don't think she'll be the winner...

[@yerviniansamvel]

Greece isn't good many years now

[@jaop13]

I'm really starting to think it's going to be Ukraine It's basically a guaranteed top 2 with televote (only Croatia might beat them) but it will depend on if the juries will tank either them or Croatia Edit: Italy can also do it and pull a Netherlands 2019 or Ukraine 2016 situation

[@irina1296]

I suspect the juries will not put both Croatia and Ukraine in the Top 3 which I hate because I love them more than Italy or The Netherlands this year

[@kristel8991]

I agree. Ukraine was AMAZING last night. Really the only performance I felt like could take it all. Winner needs a decent televote and jury vote

[@alexg3905]

Comparing Croatias' production to a festival toilet is probably the best comparison I have ever heard and I herd them all...since I'm Croatian 🤣🫶🫶 amazing insights, lets see what happens, we are truly stunned with the hipe and extatic for Marko aka Baby Lasagna✨🙌 good luck to all the contenders, it's a very strong year for Eurovision😁

[@GoldenGlobeSongContest]

13:08 Plot-twist - Croatia is back to being the bookies' favorite!

[@MrAlenije]

1. Croatia 2. Italy 3. Switzerland (my prediction)

[@tomislavm8789]

I would only put Ukraine instead of Switzerland. They are rising, Nemo and Joost are still falling in odds.

[@MrAlenije]

@@tomislavm8789 I am just tired of Ukrainian songs (recent winner and enough - don't get me wrong) ...never tired of Ruslana though

[@tiagocarvalhais5016]

My prediction: 6 - France (~50 points televote, ~250 points jury) 5 - The Netherlands (~320 points televote, ~80 points jury) 4 - Italy (~180 points televote, ~220 points jury) 3 - Ukraine (~220 points televote, ~250 points jury) 2 - Switzerland (~150 points televote, ~320 points jury) 1 - Croatia (~320 points televote, ~180 points jury)

[@Cupids_fiction]

Personally rooting heavily for Nemo, but I also want BL to win just for his sake 😭 such a sweet guy, such an interesting story

[@kristel8991]

I stopped rooting for BL after he body shamed Käärijä. Lost my respect

[@Ermm.4]

@@kristel8991HE DID WHAT NOW?

[@kristel8991]

@@Ermm.4 it was an Instagram story, it can still be found in Tumblr etc. Just gave me icky vibes

[@aengusprice8869]

Just gonna put it out there...#crownthewitch

[@saudade_saudade977]

As a swiss i can confirm everything you said about us 😭🤝

[@robertrobert596]

I saw a rehearsal from Nemo. Unfortunately, he made a circus out of his good song. And when I saw how much he fell in the bookies, I wasn't the least bit surprised. From the beginning, only Baby Lasagna sticks to the tried-and-tested recipe, which it has minimally refined. He has charisma, he has improved a lot vocally and could win the votes of the jury and the audience.

[@LaurinNagelin]

This isnt the truth the vocals are good the staging is very good I know that you problay dont like but you cant say something about the vocals or the staging

[@robertrobert596]

@@LaurinNagelin It's a falsetto that many can sing, but I agree that it has a woof effect for the average viewer. The song must be in the foreground, not the colored chicken coop. Unfortunately, ESC has been trying to overshadow the song for many years. Whoever has more money and who will pay the stage professionals more will be able to count on victory or a high ranking.

[@tavolaluija]

what do you think about Italy’s staging?

[@robertrobert596]

@@tavolaluija I really like the Italian song. I may be subjective here, because normally I like Italian songs, because I grew up on Italian canzones. Angelina Mango has a wonderful voice, her very appearance leaves a man speechless, she has quite strong charisma. As for her performance, her performance should have been like at San Remo. Dancers are redundant. The effects themselves kind of distract me from Angelina. It blends into the scene like mimicry. Maybe, and I hope that it will still look better than it could be seen in the short clip from the rehearsal.

[@tavolaluija]

@@robertrobert596 an amazing explanation, thank you! 💓 I’m sure it will look good in motion, not gonna lie the first foto I saw yesterday was kinda meh to me (I mean the one in which she stands with a lot of red roses behind) but then the others were sooo good! the fact that our delegation finally decided to work with a serious staging concept is amazing to me, and also the fact that isn’t stereotyped, idk like “La Dolce Vita” kind of style. I have a lot of hopes even though we win only 3 years ago… we will see!

[@kristinazumba7358]

I think top 5 will be Italy, Croatia, Switzerland, Ukraine and France.

[@motherofslavs8761]

If there is such a thing as law of attraction then Croatia is winning because BL has the whole and I mean WHOLE country invested in him winning. 🇭🇷 ajmo Hrvatska

[@deinHELD1]

Yes, everybody‘s quite aware that the WHOLE country is here in the comments sections present. But Baby Lasagna has got to convince European Televoters… and the viewers have a really tough choice to make this year. Nemo is going to win rationally viewed.

[@wilyriley_]

If Europapa has anything to show, it’s that domestic hype means absolutely nothing if a song doesn’t deliver in terms of its staging and its performance

[@tomislavm8789]

​@@deinHELD1 You really think that regular people in front of tv will give high votes to someone in boiled flamingo costume that's singing a mess of a song? It's not esc bubble, it's random people that watch only final and they don't care about anything or any 'explenation' or 'meaning' beside what they hear and see in those 3 minutes. The same can be said about Joost. If you don't know the story, to casual viewer he looks and sounds like just another joke entry with huge currywurst on screen.

[@deinHELD1]

@@tomislavm8789 That is just your personal opinion, taste and judgement… i think, nemo is a clear jury-bait I do not expect switzerland to win the televotes. Joost as Baby Lasagna and Angelina Mango will fight for the televote points… If the public is very undecided the jury winner wins. On Top rock-fans are not very likely to tune in in masses, especially because queer people tent to tune in very much so, so rock entries have it harder and only won, when they really brought something special… I don‘t see that for „Rim Tim Tagi Dim“ - I’m sorry but that‘s my opinion. I like it very much… And I expect Joost to get west- and northern europe’s top votes, while Baby Lasagna will top south to east - Italy same with Greece for the girl-bop-voters - and that will cost all of these entries the win.

[@motherofslavs8761]

You know what guys? I am a really proud Croat and I think BL is doing an amazing job. And I love the energy we have as a nation when we support our own, be it in sports or in eurovision. In my heart its a win. But frankly I love Nemo and their art, it's brave and the song is beautiful. And they are so sweet. I love Joost. I play his music all the time, not just Europapa but other songs like Albino. And he seems to put so much effort and thought in it. I love Marina Satti, she is a genius musician. So is Jerry H. from Ukraine. I absolutely adore La Noia and liste to it often. My personal favourites are 5miinust and Puluup. Their other music is amazing too. Vamos, if you haven't heard it - it's an absolute bannger. I love our neighbours Raven and Teya Dora. I listen to Armenia and Azerbaijan often. Like dudes, you can be proud of your country and love and appreciate other people's art. Croatia doesn't have to win. But I would be so happy and proud if it did.

[@DanielCastro-ch8el]

I belive the masive televote will have bambie thug is magnetic

[@gjbsarmeri3957]

As much as I want Croatia to win cause we deserve it, I think Switzerland is gonna win due to a simple reason. Croatia and Netherlands are gonna fight for the televote winner and are gonna take points from each other in that term. Switzerland is gonna take a solid amount of televote + a LOT of votes from the jury. Netherlands and Croatia are gonna get like no jury points unless something changes cause we all know that the jury sucks ass and just votes on how long you can hold a note or how loud you scream. Not to mention that Nemo is non-binary and it suits them to say "the first non-binary winner". Not saying Nemo is bad, I enjoy the song, but music like Baby Lasagna and's and Joost's is not something that the jury likes, which is sad. The only way I can see Croatia win is if it gets the most televotes, if it gets an okay place in the total jury points and if Nemo doesn't get a lot of jury votes and a lot of them go to Ukraine, Italy or France.

[@haydenacott7962]

I completely agree. Croatia and Netherlands have to share the public!

[@alionele]

I see this happening. Would love Croatia to win bur Nemo is more jury friendly while also being televote friendly.

[@TheManInBlueFlames]

People from the East and non-EU countries WONT vote for Europapa as they will see it as political propaganda.

[@dijanapolic9343]

Ukrain,Suisse, Nederland,,Spain, Italy, Croatia. 😳😳🥺🥺😢😭😭

[@metalvisionsongcontest7055]

@@alioneleI’m not sure how televote-friendly Nemo is… the early spot in the running order might be a clue they didn’t do as well in the all-televote semi as the Eurovision bubble assumes. But yes, if the juries love Switzerland enough (be it for vocal or ideological reasons), Croatia might be this year’s Spirit in the Sky.

[@cazdotthom]

Excellent video Gabe. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head, especially now we have the staging. Though I would like to think Norway, Ireland and Belgium will still be up there. I think because pre-show there were already multiple potential scenarios, it’s important to note their accessibility more than the dreams of us fans that stay deep in the bubble for months haha. I’d like Croatia to win, but I agree it’s most likely Switzerland. I’m excited either way 🤷🏼‍♀️ it’ll be a show for the ages!

[@zox120]

I think Croatia could win this year. Go Croatia 🇭🇷. But anything can happen.

[@AnjaBabic-up9rx]

I think public will vote for Slimane because not only he is a great singer but after last night people are in love with him. Beautiful and very charismatic man! What a smile! I think Switzerland will win. Switzerland,Croatia, France and Italy are top 4 for me.

[@goonerbean4680]

Absolutely agree with everything you’ve said. My favourite is Italy but I know Switzerland will win. People think, just because they love a song it will win, but never try and see through the jury’s or mass public audiences perspective. So many thinking Greece could win now after 1st rehearsals 🤷‍♀️. But they fail to acknowledge the huge amount of people that don’t like the song. I and my family hate the song. Anyway, putting that aside. They fail to compare the vocal prowess of other performers who will take votes away from there favourite by the jury’s. I pull my hair out trying to drill it into them.

[@yurifromfinland]

I love europapa so much! I can’t stop listening to it and I catch myself singing it almost every day. It’ll definitely be in Top 5. Some other countries I think will be in Top 5 are Switzerland, Italy, Croatia of course and either Ireland or Ukraine. Let’s see how it goes❤

[@klaudijabogdanovski]

I love Nemo, but for me, Croatia is the only one with winner vibes. I was quite disappointed with Switzerland's dress rehearsal. I wanted more, and it looked like Nemo nearly fell being on that dish. But their vocals are impeccable.

[@NotRealZeta]

19:07 Well...he predicted it and it happend. Switzerland won. Switzerland really broke the code. Congrats Switzerland!❤❤

[@chillero3heftig712]

99% will not understand the lyrics? what are you talking about, we are europeans

[@gonchiii]

Leta give Nemo the victory Switzerland deserves! 🇨🇭❤

[@itjustmeLam]

Yeah...and he did it!!! First win since 1988, it's time for Switzerland to hype for the next year... I predicted this country (along with others that he mentioned in this video) might be a winner, and I was right!

[@Wailmur]

​@@itjustmeLamthey*

[@panosblanos6355]

1. Croatia 🇭🇷 2. Switzerland 🇨🇭 3. Ukraine 🇺🇦 4. Italy 🇮🇹 5. Ireland 🇮🇪 6. Netherlands 🇳🇱 7. Greece 🇬🇷

[@itjustmeLam]

Who came here after Nemo took the trophy??? Congrats Switzerland, it's the code that let him win!

[@markdowd1]

I will NOT be singing Europapa.. it's fallen to 18-1 after second rehearsal...juries aren't buying it. Fifth or sixth at best.

[@TheoriginalMach2000]

if the rumor is true about the staging than it will be pretty amazing and going in as the underdog now. the perfect position.

[@BetjeWolff-v2s]

From what I understood Joost Klein is opposing the rehearsals going public. So he slimmed down the performance during the rehearsal.

[@LouiseRowan-n5p]

Apparently Joost was not happy about showing previews so his team showed as less as they could. That being the end...so spoilers weren't leaked whereas some countries showed only highlights. I have looked more into this and noticed Netherlands aren't the only ones to do this... For example Switzerland have not shown highlights either they showed the end of their performance, same as Netherlands. Genius! ❤

[@YaelBewford]

🇨🇮🇨🇭🇬🇷 BEST songs without any doubt 💯💯💯 whoever wins i ll be happy

[@AlcatrazHR]

None of them will win. 😉

[@itz_marcus0819]

@@AlcatrazHRwho then??

[@Ivano_Lovreta]

@@itz_marcus0819kanye west

[@tiernanmcveigh4102]

The ivory Coast are not participating this year. 😅

[@fridareyes5404]

So objective! I'm really nervous. This is maybe the strongest competition in so much time. I really can't wait for next Saturday. For me the winner is Croatia, precisely for the history. If we remember when Måneskin won, they started singing on the streets and then become one of the most famous bands in world. I think Baby Lasagna won't have the same impact as Måneskin, but for the history and his philosophy, he can do that but at the end, their contenders are quite stronger than him... Let's see what happen.... Greetings from Mexico. 🙌❤️🇲🇽

[@taniaphillips9766]

Ukrainian rap is one of my fav rap in the world. I love Switzerland so much and Croatia is the banger. I usually don't like France but he has something and I love Italy but there are several other songs that have a similar feel to Ms Mango - I think Greece in particular will take points away. Go Ireland and I hope Aus makes the grand final. And I just love Estonia!!

[@bogdancristian6758]

I'd love to see Ukraine winning, their song is mesmerizing. But from my standpoint, the country that also deserves to win this year is Greece.

[@tomislavm8789]

The song is boring. Same two sentences over and over again on basic beat.

[@musicm1rage623]

@@tomislavm8789I think you have problems with ears. Cause you definitely never heard the song. This is basically a balled-rap song with modern beat. How this can be even called boring on Eurovision stage? Don’t be ridiculous. It’s either you playing around here or you really have ear problems

[@tomislavm8789]

@@musicm1rage623 The beat is generic, already outdated and monotone. To listen to two sentences being repeted over and over again in monotne voice with few seconds of some operatic singing and 15 seconds of rap in foreign language is boring as hell, although as a slav I can understand some words. I played violine. I know how boring music sounds. If this was any other countries entry beside Ukrainian, like Moldovian or Romanian, it would not even be considered for qualification, let alone top 5 or even win.

[@ineedgoldenretriever]

@@tomislavm8789ruzzians aren’t invited

[@painpapadopoulos8120]

The beat isn't outdated, it is the most modern song in the competition.

[@wilyriley_]

11:00 I don’t know if they did, though, especially about the second point - they found a singer and parked them on stage, sure, but he appears to be social distancing from the microphone quite a bit

[@JustSaying001]

Angelina Mango 💚🤍❤️ Italy could be overall winner of Eurovision Song Contest 2024! 🏆

[@yugo_papa]

Croatia will win. They’re guaranteed to win the televote and the winner has always been in the top 2 of the televote apart from 2015. Ukraine won’t score high enough with the jury and Italy and France won’t score high enough with the televote to win. Switzerland and the Netherlands are not contenders to win IMO. They might come 5th-10th.

[@Jatzki]

I don't think Croatia's placing higher than third in the televote

[@yugo_papa]

@@Jatzki yeah sure. The clear televote magnet and #1 in the odds will not place higher than 3rd in the televote 😂😂

[@wilyriley_]

@@yugo_papathe issue is that there are several other televote magnets - even though they won’t win the televote, countries like the Netherlands, Finland, Estonia, and Armenia will still pick up votes that would’ve otherwise gone to Croatia, and could stop them from winning.

[@wilyriley_]

Honestly, Italy is the most likely winner for me, but in a Netherlands 2019 type situation. Switzerland likely won’t get enough televotes, Ukraine will do well with both juries and televote, but almost certainly not enough to win (something like Italy 2023), France will likely be a sort of reverse Norway 2019 (doing super well in juries but not televote), the Netherlands will be lucky to get 50 jury points and will almost certainly get 3rd in the televote at best, and Croatia will probably get too cannibalised by other televote baits to win.

[@tomislavm8789]

​@@wilyriley_ It's like saying that Croatia, Moldova, Australia and Belgium took public points from Finland last year. 😀 Croatia is obvious public winner, especially after rehersals that rocketed Croatia back to first place but tanked Switzerland and Netherlands (who might get almost no jury votes being a joke entry). So far there is no real threat for public's first place with safe margin. We have seen parts of performances. Croatia and Italy are the only once who do not look like they are acting but are organic and real.

[@ΣΠΥΡΟΣΜΑΚΡΗΣ-ρ6ι]

Marina great video

[@marcelomoura9272]

Croatia has the same formula as cha cha cha. I don't think it's good, but I know people will adore a weird song like this just like they did last year

[@Antena308]

Shame on Croats for sending weird songs, so countries with normal songs like Nemo, Irish Witch, W95, and No No Europa can't win. I totally agree with you

[@labro2014]

Η Ελλάδα 🇬🇷 θα σηκωσει το 🏆 φετος!!!!❤❤❤

[@tinan2179]

Βραδυά SF2: Έχει μεγάλο ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΟ αγώνα ποδοσφαίρου / Ημιτελικό τότε - στην Αθήνα!!! Παίζουν Ολυμπιακός 🇬🇷- Αστον Βίλλα 🇬🇧 (Europa Conference League)!!! Φοβάμαι ότι αυτό θα βλέπουν αρκετοί…😢 MA-RI-NA!!!!🇬🇷🎶🎲🧿

[@tdorothy.6172]

Δύσκολο.. αλλά μακάρι!!! Μακάριοι να είμαστε 10αδα!!!θα είμαι ευχαριστημένη

[@thetravellingswede208]

The only entry among your prediction that I like is France. A real chanson in a more modern fashion, let's bring chanson back to ESC. Simple but so good and a wonderful singer with strong voice and carisma. Hope France doesn't make same mistake as last year trying to upscale the performance to a big scene, loosing the essence of the performance. Please, let it stay simple and let the cameras and the singer do the magic work. Like the song that Portugal won with some years ago, so beautiful and no fancy effects, and Cornelia Jakobs a couple of years ago is also a favourite. Otherwise Italy has been in the top for me recent years. For me Netherlands and Croatia this year don't appeal to me at all. Kind of vulgar in my eyes and ears, tiresome and very annoying. In the same league Finland last year was rather good though and much better, but the weak voice was a problem. Don't ever take the juries out of the ESC! I think the juries can see beyond the effects of light, nudity and so on, they judge more from quality than many of the televoters. Finally, thanks for your prediction, always nice to hear different opinons. Will be exciting to see those countries that haven't shown a live entry before. Don't think I will watch the semi finals, I'll settle with le grand finale with some good friends. Hope it will be a great show. Cheers!

[@FloMarie-mq8em]

Thanks for France.... Best singer, best song Slimane, Mon amour AMAZING .... Slimane my winner 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩

[@ddraven3180]

Small correction, Cha Cha Cha got 526pts not 529pts but potato potato your point still stands

[@ar50000]

Yes. Do the math!

[@annakobuk3618]

The more I watch these rehearsal snippets and the more I look at the odds or fan scoreboard etc the less I know. However, I have a strange feeling France will win the jury voting and either The Netherlands OR Norway will win the televoting. There is a rumour about augmented reality on stage at Joost's performance. This may REALLY boost his chances. With dark horse Norway, well, it is different from all other potentially televote friendly acts so... it is still possible. When it comes to overall winner, my oh my, it may be Ukraine, Switzerland, Italy: I generously give each of them circa 33% or by a stroke of incredible luck and moment someone else. Very interesting year.

[@haydenacott7962]

I thoroughly enjoy Norway, I’d love to see it win but I doubt it will appeal to enough people. It’s an acquired taste. Serbia is my ballad, I find it far more interesting than France… but that’s just me 🤷‍♂️

[@michaelgray7768]

What a smooth talker ! You should totally be a politician 😀👍

[@davesabra4320]

He's put 10 000 hours into Eurovision analysis. Hmm.

[@Ama-Elaini]

Eurovision has been gradually made more global though, and it's something we shouldn't ignore and because of this we should realize we necessarily cannot compare it to last year directly. This year's voting rule change says that the voting lines stay open for other countries than the performers for 24 hours, from the last dress rehearsals to the beginning of the actual final shows. It might bring a big element of surprise into the results when all the continents, in which voting is now made easier, have had their say.

[@wilyriley_]

it would hardly make a difference - the entire ROTW vote is equivalent to _one_ competing country’s televote

[@Ama-Elaini]

@@wilyriley_ I wasn't aware of that...

[@astronomenov99]

Ukraine will get the 'big moment' from the heart-rending staging. There will be no dry eyes in the audience there or in tv land.

[@mitchellconnolly2560]

We can get Switzerland to win this year! Please vote 🇨🇭!

[@Terra12345X]

umm...yeah...dunno...seems like people from other european countries give thumbs up about the song and give nice commets, but I have some feeling that secretly, people wish that someone else wins because of the huge organisation expenses and the cost being in Switzerland... I'm pretty sure that even some countries will skip next year competition if that happens to save some buck

[@IANA1937]

Ukraine ❤

[@Wamubodo]

As commented below, the rehearsals do matter in our prediction mode. So many strong visuals. And especially with the televote: Last year was very clear. But this year? Could be the UK, Ireland, Norway, Greece or even Spain or Malta. Maybe not as a winner? Who knows. There are a lot of songs which are getting a LOT of love. At this point I think Swizerland will be the winner. And it will be deserved. But the same for many other entries. The quality of the performances is amazing. It's down to the real deal. Next week!

[@linzimcmaster5717]

@escgabe do you have think Ireland could pull manskin 2021 now rehearsals have been realised 🙊

[@Ivano_Lovreta]

I think it will be all set up for Croatia since they never won (apart in Yugosalvia).Because Eurovision needs new countries to win contest so it doesn’t start becoming boring,like imagine eurovision every year in countries like France,Sweden,Italy,Switzerland…People would just start to loose intrest.

[@Zeetana1]

Yes, but I think it also has a lot to do with political will to host. It is expensive. I think that is why it's only countries that can and are willing that have won the last decade. I will never believe Portugal's win was a real one, lol.

[@Ivano_Lovreta]

@@Zeetana1 i mean I am Croatian and its not big deal to organise Eurovision since our economy had very big growth last 10 years and we are also in EU so they can help aswell if there is a need,but here in Croatia the government spends a lot of money on less important things rather than organizing Eurovision next year if we win…

[@Xenogear_99]

1.Netherlands 2.Netherlands 3.Netherlands Netherlands has a really nice last semi-final performance and since this song is gonna peform twice..after the first time will be confused but during the final everyone will have europapa stuck in their mind like me :P

[@silkentertainment6749]

cries in greece not included

[@Nomade2801]

What about Norway, Gåte. Would like to hear what you think about that song.

[@12_terabyte57]

At this point I feel like we’re going to see a compromise winner, with either the name of Italy or Ukraine. 2nd or 3rd in the juries, 3rd or 4th in the televote in the case of Italy or this but the opposite for Ukraine, and we’ll have a winner. Personally between these two I’m rooting for Ukraine.

[@tomislavm8789]

Ukraine is too boring for both juries and public to give them high points. Two sentences over and over again for 2,5 minutes in monotone voice with few seconds of operatic singing over generic outdated beat. There are at least 5 songs already having a place in final in final who are much, much better songs that juries will give high points to: italy, france, greece, uk, belgium...serbia, portugal, slovenia, denmark, azerbaijan, norway, armenia, latvia if they pass through. Even croatia and ireland are more interesting for both juries and public. I doubt that ukraine will win a single 12 from juries (maybe from polish). Most of them will go to France or Italy.

[@oleksandrapoliakova7495]

​@@tomislavm8789I think the dress rehearsals will get us more info on performances and then we'll see

[@steveneiffel8227]

Some comments on this year: - ireland: devil ritual is actually against esf rules which forbids religieus acts in songs - sweden: expect lawsuit of faithless due to plagerism - ukraine: the only song of all entries that is not about the individual but the importance of the colective and adversity. It striking to see that all esf song are so much about me,me,me.

[@gizmo3702]

Whatever about the "religion rule" as I am not aware of it, but the Irish performance is NOT satanic, its pagan. Don't erase irish history!

[@bredaodwyer2150]

Gr8 comment re paganism.

[@RobAndrews18]

You forgot Greece. They have a big chance of getting the most public votes

[@Kostas6330]

MA-RI-NA

[@Ίων-π8ρ]

When I saw the title of your video I was expecting to hear the name of Greece....

[@DamirŠkoić]

Croatia winner ❤❤❤😊

[@blackbirdsnake3107]

welp you wont hear europapa in the event now, so sad that joost didnt just disqualify himself, but he also disqualified his country and an amazing song. but i am grateful that the organisors are actually banning him instead of trying to sweep it under the rug

[@DavidShiel1]

France could very much do what North Macedonia did in 2019

[@Rafael-br9dd]

And Portugal as well, a huge wildcard that nobody expects

[@amandamadaci7797]

I very much like your taste and your predictions. Regardless, what I would like to see is at least two dark horses to come in and shake this top six 😁 It would be personally very satisfying for me since in my opinion, not everyone agrees with me, this is a very strong year. Unfortunately I am not planning to watch the competition but I'm sure I will have all the top moments listed all around the place in social media and similar

[@lilalizzard]

I feel like Ireland could be a dark horse this year! Their staging and vocals are impeccable!

[@amandamadaci7797]

@@lilalizzard Yes! By now it's very certain, the whole lineup is already shaking

[@eli_the_frog]

Joost Klein isn't only massive in the Netherlands, he is in Germany too

[@jankench1731]

Ukraine all the way🇺🇦

[@paraskint]

Hell no

[@KimmeU]

Gåte will win as it's the only song that really stands out.

[@ΜελανιαΜανουσαριδου]

Greece is the winner 🏆🏆 MARINA is so amazing ❤❤

[@lidiia_s]

I love Maria Teresa! Thay have to win 🏆

[@ladybird24]

Greece for the win go Marina!🇬🇷

[@mcocIntercept]

Let's hope you are all mistaken and Marina-Greece wins this one. Bet odds don't count , how many times these odds are beaten, almost always. Vote Greece ! Enjoy ZARI !

[@elisaa9981]

Yes. It's going to be Switzerland. Lithuania is my dark horse, provided that the re -vamp the show and make it a little bit more memorable. I missed Belgium in your analysis. I think it's great that there's no super clear frontrunner.

[@ReddoLeoMeme2401]

Great video, I really liked your in-depth analysis of all the strengths and weaknesses of each potential winner. However since it's clear you've recorded this before the beginning of rehearsals; do you think the probability of either Croatia or Italy winning the contest have gone up after Switzerland's less-than-convincing 2nd rehearsal? The bookies seem to have already hopped off Nemo's hype train

[@chromaticasforecast4419]

Genuinely asking, what's not convincing bout Switzerland's staging? I mean, it's not my winner yet I didn't find the miss or reason why it went down to #2...

[@ReddoLeoMeme2401]

@@chromaticasforecast4419 Judging from what's been published so far (especially the video of the 2nd rehearsal), i find the performance to be too messy and confusing

[@tomislavm8789]

​@@chromaticasforecast4419 Staging is almost perfect, Nemo is far from it. The voice might be perfection, but the presentation looked like school performance of some 10 year old kid that went to drama class just to get better grades. That's why Nemo fell so fast from first place after people saw his rehersal. You must have the whole package, not just one ingredient.

[@3ul361]

Where is Greece in that? or are you just looking at the odds?

[@tikt99]

No doubts dear friend, the winner will be Baby Lasagna with his own song Rim Tim Tagi Dim 🎉❤🤴🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷🥳👯👯🏃‍♀️💃🕺🥳

[@perkigothdragon2397]

😻

[@echtblikbonen]

I only have one thing to say: Welkom in europa jonguh! *BOM BOM BOBOBOBOM*

[@SMules]

I love love looove Switzerland. Such a winner song.

[@eduardorodriguez3468]

Where is Marina?

[@etherealis1943]

not high enough in the odds

[@tr13sk]

I'm expecting top 10 for her. Best possible placement might be 5th?

[@catarinavh1835]

Can't wait 🍿☕️