Housing Market Set For A "Cat 5" Storm, Worse Than The Great Financial Crisis

Housing Market Set For A "Cat 5" Storm, Worse Than The Great Financial Crisis | Melody Wright

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Last week Danielle DiMartino Booth was on this program and gave a special shout out to the excellent work analyst Melody Wright is doing to reveal the true state of the US real estate market.
So I'm thrilled we have the good fortune to sit down with Melody herself today, to hear her latest assessment straight from the horse's mouth.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 The current state of the US real estate market.
8:00 Clarifying the assessment of inventory.
12:27 Pig and the snake of permits.
17:53 What is a spec home and why is it important?
24:08 The end of the runway for builders.
29:00 How much faith do we have in the data?
32:50 Case study of a community site with 100 homes for sale.
38:03 Risks of institutional and corporate investors in the market.
42:06 No one has learned their lessons.
47:31 How do you feel about the current state of the market?
51:56 How the superprime is coming under stress.
56:32 How a recession could accelerate the housing market?
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#realestateprices #housingmarket2023 #newhomes
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@Wealthion 8 ай бұрын

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@davidhunternyc1 7 ай бұрын

We must decide, do we want to continue to spend billions upon billions at war, giving suit cases of gold and money to terrorists, supporting authoritarian regimes, causing coups and setting up puppet governments whom will turn against American interests on a dime? Do we want to continue to bail out Wall Street, banks, corporations, auto companies, airlines, and the industrial war complex? Do we not hold the Pentagon accountable for "losing" $1 trillion in taxpayer money? Do we allow insurance and media companies to make unlimited profits? The rabbit hole of corruption is deep. The problem is not the poor folks living in section housing. The problem isn't people living on food stamps. The problem is that legislation is written to serve the rich. Capitalism has, as its feature, the ruling class profiting off the backs of the working class, the poor, and the enslaved. Unfortunately, the housing crisis won't get solved. Even after the pandemic the masses are gaslit into complacency. The working class will not rise up with pitchforks to defend their own survival. Instead, we are being divided by culture wars. _“I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half.”_ - Jay Gould, 1891

@btimothygordon2777 7 ай бұрын

Wealth of Information. Please bring her back ,maybe in Q1 2024.

@LofgrenMark 6 ай бұрын

I predict a housing crash due to people buying homes over asking price, lacking equity if prices decline further. Foreclosure becomes likely if they can't afford the house, and selling won't yield profits. With anticipated layoffs and rising living costs, many individuals may face this situation.

@monicavazquez280 6 ай бұрын

If you are new to the market, I recommend seeking professional assistance. The most effective approach to creating a well-organized portfolio is to begin with a professional who is knowledgeable about the turbulent yet profitable market.

@melissawehner 6 ай бұрын

Over the past three years, I have been working with a professional who has provided daily guidance on my financial decisions. With their expert analysis, I have realized gains of over $1 million. Their insights have helped me avoid losses and capitalize on market breakthroughs, particularly during downtrends.

@romiverajr 6 ай бұрын

@@melissawehner How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

@melissawehner 6 ай бұрын

@@romiverajr I'm been guided by "Susan Bauer Normansell," who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.

@romiverajr 6 ай бұрын

@@melissawehner Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

@BerniceVining 8 ай бұрын

This guest has been the most honest, brave, smart, and forthright out of ALL of your guests....true boots on the ground and for the people!!! She was Amazing!!!!!❤

@dannycalley7777 8 ай бұрын

BV ...........she upped the level of analysis........and I thought I knew the under belly of real estate and building ????

@MiranUT 7 ай бұрын

I totally agree!!!!!

@nyquil762 7 ай бұрын

@Westcoastrocksduh Perhaps the "brave" part of her analysis is the fact that she appears to be telling the truth. Guests like this don't get interviewed often because most can't earn a living telling the truth.

@Mike_257 7 ай бұрын

Same thing in China!!! They keep building new houses, building to building, city to city. But nobody occupied!!! Nobody !!! Just like a gosh town!!!! Eventually, the real estate in China collapsed!!!!!

@dominicgerodano5481 7 ай бұрын

Except for the fact she's completely wrong

@EllaBurke_ 5 ай бұрын

The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?

@JosephReynolds522 5 ай бұрын

@WilliamHarwoodx 5 ай бұрын

Over the past three years, I have been working with an investment coach who has provided daily guidance on my investment decisions. With their expert analysis, I have realized gains of over $1 million. Their insights have helped me avoid losses and capitalize on market breakthroughs, particularly during downtrends.

@ThomasHeintz 5 ай бұрын

@@WilliamHarwoodx How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

@WilliamHarwoodx 5 ай бұрын

It's best you do your due diligence, I have my portfolio overseen by “Laura Marie Ray” and her qualifications speak for itself. Most likely, the internet is where to find basic info, she has a noticeable page for consulting.

@JohnMoore1641 5 ай бұрын

@@WilliamHarwoodx I just looked her up on the internet and looked into her credentials. I wrote her a letter outlining my financial objectives.

@james.atkins88 5 ай бұрын

To capitalize on affordable housing in 2024 amid a shortage, consider investing when housing prices dip, as steady demand and a supply deficit make significant declines unlikely. Regarding stocks, assess market conditions and trends; while some view it as profitable, others caution about inherent risks, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making.

@Kim.beneteau 5 ай бұрын

Consider investing in stocks especially during a recession . While recessions can be tough, they can also offer good chances to buy low and sell high in the markets if you're cautious. Remember, this is not financial advice, but it's a good time to think about buying stocks since having cash on hand isn't always the best option.

@andrew.alonzo 5 ай бұрын

You're right! With the help of an experienced coach, I made some changes in my investments. I started with $321k, and now I have more than $750k by investing in stocks, ETFs, and bonds. I think housing prices won't go down much until there are more houses available.

@Sarah.barnet 5 ай бұрын

@@andrew.alonzo Can you kindly provide me with the information of your investment advisor as I am currently in desperate need of one?

@andrew.alonzo 5 ай бұрын

Sure. There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But I only work with *Camille Alicia Garcia* . and we have been working together for nearly four years. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. She's well-grounded and known, shouldn't be a hassle finding her page.

@veronica.baker1 5 ай бұрын

Camille. Has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.

@DBEdwards 8 ай бұрын

INVITE MELODY BACK! She's a great guest. Informed and worthwhile

@markgurney8682 8 ай бұрын

Great respect to people who do their own research, and critical thinking. Makes the follow the crowd look stupid!!!

@danielturner9832 8 ай бұрын

This lady reminds me of the guys in the movie The Big Short when they went to Florida and saw it for themselves.

@skybrick1036 8 ай бұрын

Yes sir housing is about to enter a housing expansion

@dstyro 8 ай бұрын

Yeah, really liked her DD. She did the actual legwork.. cough .. pardon me... the drive work too. The best data in terms of quality.

@TheFfabinhoo 8 ай бұрын

Many in Australia

@EdwinBoettcher 7 ай бұрын

predict a housing crash due to people buying homes over asking price, lacking equity if prices decline further. Foreclosure becomes likely if they can't afford the house, and selling won't yield profits. With anticipated layoffs and rising living costs, many individuals may face this situation.

@EdwinBoettcher 7 ай бұрын

That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

@EdwinBoettcher 7 ай бұрын

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

@BillJones-zg1cg 7 ай бұрын

My Financial adviser is ‘’BECKY LOU GORDON’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market

@estapley2680 8 ай бұрын

I am a real estate appraiser and it is refreshing to finally hear someone talking about the layers behind the scenes that most people not in the mortgage industry understand. I hear so many real estate "experts" pushing the same narrative and talking points. I have been basically unemployed for the past 15 months as the refinance work has completely shut off. I have been warning family and friends we are the canary in the coal mine. I don't think people understand the significance and the ripple effect of people not being able to access their equity in their homes. We bank ourselves with our equity whether it is a bad year at the dentist, medical bills, car issues, a new furnace or roof. This all gets juggled between unsecured credit and a refi. We have a massive backlog of refis that have not taken place and people are buried in credit cards and with minimal to no savings left. The full repercussions from the lag effect of last years rate hikes have not even begun to enter the picture. If the fed does not pivot soon to create a relief valve for people before the recession (that is already here) actually hits the narrative with the coming layoffs the crash will be a cat 5... no doubt.

@gamanshoo 8 ай бұрын

I hope you get up on your feet and working soon. Thank you for sharing your experience We are in the Twilight Zone when the rich corporates are desperately trying to unload all of their sht onto uninformed families who BELIEVE the BS narrative that these guys push through “believable TV-radio” networks… The Rich Men North of Richmond (red and blue) keep having a field day with this system….as they exclusively serve corporations (not loyal to country) and individual rich donors

@gregorysagegreene 8 ай бұрын

I was a programmer in CA in 2008 . . . Homeless for a lot of years, in motels on Obama's college money for another 4 years, 5 years now semi truck driver ... Low Freight. Demand gone. ... Broke, going nowhere. Same as everybody else, after 15 years of persistence. So, if you have a long-term plan, forget it. This will be years & years & years.

@MariaRodriguez-lb2cr 7 ай бұрын

Been laid off a year now from tech , was at FB. The realtors in San Diego pushing people to buy like normal.

@christiandunn9715 7 ай бұрын

I’m an appraiser too and it’s getting close. The signs for the 2008 crash began late 2005 when investors left the market but it took 2-3 years to materialize. We are somewhere in that 2-3 year window right now.

@ezdeezytube 7 ай бұрын

@MariaRodriguez-lb2cr what's going on at FB? Are they able to cook their revenue numbers too?

@brianbeaudette3150 8 ай бұрын

Wow...Melody is a WEALTH of information. So glad you had her on your show. I'd love to see her here again soon.

@emailsender7139 8 ай бұрын

Yeah, end of October.

@chrislastnam6822 8 ай бұрын

This woman had nothing to say.

@Paeoniarosa 8 ай бұрын

I second that.

@chrislastnam6822 8 ай бұрын

She knows nothing.

@ashleypatterson1867 7 ай бұрын

Yes I would love to hear from her again. So well informed.

@ericdehart1727 8 ай бұрын

I like she is literally reporting from the field and saying exactly what she sees.

@michaelglenning5107 8 ай бұрын

Exactly! Don't expect main stream media to tell the truth. Heck, don't expect the FBI, CIA, BLS, FED, CDC .... to tell the truth.

@annberlin5811 8 ай бұрын

Like an actual journalist

@merlerust1703 7 ай бұрын

The report on the Nashville area sounds about right...been studying the Nashville, Franklin, Brentwood and College Grove inventory for a couple of years...there is no way people should be paying 2, 3, 4,5,6 mill or more for homes that were built on what was otherwise Tennessee farm/pasture land....there will be no way those folks are getting out with their shirts on in the event they have to sell...the banks better be careful as well

@jamisonmunn9215 7 ай бұрын

Not really, I live in Austin and the houses are selling and builders are still building. Meanwhile she is saying bigger than the financial crisis and too much inventory. When there is almost no inventory and prices are still high.

@DeBaanDB 7 ай бұрын

@@jamisonmunn9215, but what about her report that the builders are essentially hiding extra inventory? Is she lying, or do you have an explanation perhaps on how she mistook what she saw and what people told her?

@7thlady 7 ай бұрын

I would say that both Wall St and the lenders did indeed learn something in the last GFC: they learned they could get away with bad behavior with very little consequences for themselves. No surprise they are up to it again.

@karinn4599 6 ай бұрын

Exactly! How can we all prevent the government from doing this again?

@sameerai2174 8 ай бұрын

Best housing interview so far! Everyone else in housing talks only about publicly available data, which doesn’t really jibe with one’s intuition about the current housing market. Melody has done a great service digging into non-public data, and gosh, what excellent insights she has to share!

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

Thanks to John Desmond Heppelotte, I've experienced remarkable financial growth and can confidently say I'm on the right track to success. If you're serious about Your growth financially, this channel is your secret weapon! You can make a research of his names online to discover his outstanding resume..

@user-sb6uf1pk9t 7 ай бұрын

If there is a crash in the housing market, it won't last long because investors flush with cash will dive in. Plus, the newly cheap real estate will be a safe haven from the ongoing inflation wave.

@Mastah_Genius 8 ай бұрын

Wow, she really is the real deal! Gave me chills when she spoke specifically about how no one learned their lesson. Guys, are you listening? Some of us work inside the industry and see what is happening.

@10317 8 ай бұрын

Maybe if they were actually held accountable?

@GC42277 7 ай бұрын

I wonder for my selfish reasons if this could mean more listings for my daughter in RE sales Nashville ??

@d000dez 7 ай бұрын

@@GC42277 maybe, but it'll be a few years and at much lower prices than today.

@CoutureValancy 7 ай бұрын

I worked for a builder back in 2007… and the fake sale commitments were coming directly from the top. I wouldn’t believe sales managers were involved. This is fraud on a larger scale

@brandoncarson5039 7 ай бұрын

Im a salesman for a major home remodeling company. We have seen a sharp decline in sales nationwide for the last month or so. With rates being higher, along with tightening lending standards, things are getting rough. Weve taken on a "buydown rates" approach similarly to what DRHorton is doing for new home builds. Every industry in real estate is doing everything they can to not bring down prices. Soon, the levee will break and prices will have to drop across the hoard imo

@busterbiloxi3833 6 ай бұрын

Decline in sales? Tough shit! Deal with it!

@steved0123 8 ай бұрын

Booms and busts. I used to operate a filler at a Coca Cola bottling plant. There was always a race between me and my 40 valve filler and the 45 valve filler. One day I came in with a broken toe. The bottling line crew made fun of me limping around. I lowered the speed to 280 bottles a minute so I could keep up with things. The crew that made fun of me crawled out of work that day, dead tired. I had not one breakdown or stoppage all day. I put out a record number of 10oz. bottles that day and even beat the 45 valve filler. The normal speed used to be 300 bottles a minute. Morale of this story, don't go too fast as it will slow you down when reality hits.

@chriskenney4377 8 ай бұрын

I"ve been and around real estate for over 50 years. I learned more in this1 hour than that whole time. Thanks for introducing me to Melody Wright.

@dannycalley7777 8 ай бұрын

CK ...............MW opened my eyes

@gundriver6439 8 ай бұрын

Visited family in Texas (last Thanksgiving) for a week plus and was astounded in the number of new homes sitting empty. Many were half built and nobody was there swinging hammers on a Monday.

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@chriswalter92 7 ай бұрын

I realized that the secret to making a million is making better investment. I bought my 1st home at 21 for 87k sold for 197k, 2nd home 170k and sold for 320k, 3rd 300k and sold for 589k and buyers paid all closing costs expenses etc Not making up to a million before retirement is unfulfilled retirement.!!

@chriswalter92 7 ай бұрын

I started out with a financial advisor called *" Rochelle Dungca Schreiber ".* Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control of my positions, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI. However, do your due diligence before contacting a financial advisor.

@tahirisaid2693 7 ай бұрын

"It's quite a surprise that you're acquainted with her as well. I've had the privilege of gaining significant profits while learning and investing under her guidance for the past few months. ROCHELLE DUNGCA-SCHREIBER truly stands out as one of the most exceptional mentors and traders I've had the pleasure of collaborating with in recent years. Her expertise in navigating various market situations is truly remarkable."

@ksreloaded1068 7 ай бұрын

1.) How did you get the money for the first home at 87k? 2.) Did you have student loan debt?

@arizonan1 8 ай бұрын

Plenty of inventory. Everybody who said there is a housing shortage is a liar and should be called out as one and never trusted. Melody is one of the few telling the truth, refreshing.

@msims6054 8 ай бұрын

In the northeast, where open land is more scarce and therefore not a lot of spec building… inventory is scarce

@favor4afavor823 8 ай бұрын

I don't know what planet you live on. There is no inventory. These jokers have been calling a crash for years and don't understand that nobody with a 3% mortgage is ever selling. Ever.

@frankmarsh1159 8 ай бұрын

@@favor4afavor823 This video is about new houses not existing houses.

@shanerogers9386 8 ай бұрын

Here in south Florida an LLC buys a home and no one moves in or rents, then a different LLC buys home, again, no one moves in. But the home that was 500k is now 1.5MM just 2 years later. Better get in now

@phil3621 8 ай бұрын

Definitely have her back as this progresses.

@jameskikuoka4863 8 ай бұрын

I would like to add my observations in NJ. It is the 1.5 Million and above “trophy homes” that are flooding the market. They often carry very large property taxes, sometimes 30-50K or even more. Additionally, I attend estate sales. A new phenomenon is that these sales are occurring BEFORE the home is sold! I have never seen that before except in extremely rare cases. To me, that means people are delinquent on their mortgages and/or property taxes and are forced to sell. “Affordable homes,” less than 1 million, continued to be swept up by desperate buyers fooled by the media frenzy. It is all going to end very, very badly! Thanks for the great summary.

@bsutton2084 8 ай бұрын

I saw this in Florida in 2007/2008. People would write pre sale contracts for $1,000 to claim a unit and flip the pre-construction contract for $30,000 each. They would claim 20 to 100 units at a time and had no means to close on more than 1. This lead to massive bankruptcies all along the gulf coast.

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@joanmavima5423 7 ай бұрын

Listening to radio in the NE at that time, there were programs entirely devoted to purchasing Florida condos. Completely understandable that it was overbuilt, and built to substandard specifications.

@DarianBTaylor 7 ай бұрын

Same in Phoenix Arizona

@busterbiloxi3833 6 ай бұрын

Why would they go bankrupt if they flipped the contracts?

@sheiladoyle5512 7 ай бұрын

Loved this interview! Please have Melody back on your show. 🙏

@trevoroertel1306 8 ай бұрын

Absolutely please have Melody back on to further this discussion. I love the candid responses and the truth she tells. I’d love to have her do a live debate with some of the mainstream media giants!

@patriciamoore51 7 ай бұрын

Indeed!

@catfoodgeneration 8 ай бұрын

No matter how much bullshit is going on in the country's finances, which Adam points out every week, the market keeps going up because bullshit is the only thing that's keeping the country afloat.

@MichaelBHess 8 ай бұрын

It's the fiber.

@realitybitesw4900 8 ай бұрын

It is the sign of the collapse of an empire. Nothing but BS to prolong its life.

@Mike-fx4nu 8 ай бұрын

Too much money chasing too few goods.

@jeanmetcalf1263 8 ай бұрын

The thing that keeps residential real estate, strong, going up or not going down much is low inventory and majority of homeowners have low, long-term fixed mortgages and will not be selling for the most part for years to come meaning low inventory, and stable prices

@asfinc7249 8 ай бұрын

So true.. Everyone has learned that creating and floating the narrative/lying about reality works. People buy it. “The vax works and is safe and effective. Nevermind those 250 who just died 10min after getting it.” Ok… shoot me up… Just lie and people buy it.

@blessusa123 7 ай бұрын

Yes, please bring back Melody! She's awesome 👏 Love her joyful personality ❤️

@Williams093 6 ай бұрын

I'm struggling in this market. Stocks that I have held for months and made profits from are not behaving the way I'm used to so I’m quite indecisive on how to tackle this market, any advice would be grateful.

@Williams093 6 ай бұрын

@@AndrewWilliams-gm7sm That sounds great . what signal do you invest with ?.

@Williams093 6 ай бұрын

@@AndrewWilliams-gm7sm That's awesome and please how do I connect with her ?.

@Williams093 6 ай бұрын

@@AndrewWilliams-gm7sm I'm currently on her webpage now, her reviews are very impressive and I left a message for her. thanks, a lot.

@jerrymichalkiewicz3452 8 ай бұрын

I have been looking at my market every day for 2 years and have been saying this for a while. There is SO much inventory, but no affordable inventory. Can’t & won’t last

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@texasrunner 8 ай бұрын

Finally, AT got himself a sane female housing analyst 😉 Melody is amazing-keeping the heart of Gonzo journalism alive

@christinab2074 8 ай бұрын

You’re pretty good yourself but Melody is definitely a wealth of knowledge

@LibertarianRF 8 ай бұрын

What does it matter that she's a female?

@MichaelBHess 8 ай бұрын

Ah, Miss Amy. Makes me feel a little male-ancholy. 😥

@Eric.1I37 8 ай бұрын

@@LibertarianRF Why does it matter that it matters, she is female.

@siffmaster2032 8 ай бұрын

@@LibertarianRF It was a joke. She's also a female analyst that has been on the show.

@nosac1230 8 ай бұрын

She said about 50% of pandemic home owner assistance is still being held by the states. Who knew that? Not me. Amazing!

@gregh7457 8 ай бұрын

Yes please more Melody. She covers everything from the builders to the political climate and she's been at ground zero when things have gone south in the past boom bust cycle. She's probably too young to have been part of the SL crisis too. I was a contractor that worked with RTC in the early 90's and saw that meltdown. The aftermath of the SL crisis was just breathtaking and the transfer of wealth was equally breathtaking.

@JC-21470 8 ай бұрын

Finally, someone who got smart and simply said "I want to see for myself what is going on" remember in the "Big Short" when they all flew to Florida to check out the market for themselves to determine if a bubble really existed? Well... that is exactly what this guest did! Kudos to you!

@elliotthovanetz1945 8 ай бұрын

The thing that really worries me is, unlike the GFC, the federal government is so levered up it can't bail out this mess like before. So then we have hyperinflation if they try to or depression if they realize they can't.

@gamanshoo 8 ай бұрын

It will likely do it. There is NO OPTION We will pay $20 for a loaf of bread within 10 years

@skexzies3673 8 ай бұрын

Melody was epic! Boots on the ground research is priceless. Please get her back with a discussion (analysis) for individual home buyers/sellers.

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@robertbender73 8 ай бұрын

She's 100% accurate at all levels. I was an exec at a GSE in risk purchase area, and now the GSE are basically owned by the govt, and they have been making zero down subprime loans, to expand low income, marginal borrower ownership and the govt is now also the default guarantor in the event of default once the banks are forced ti buy back bad loans. No need for a bailout, as govt will just add their loss to the national debt, which private mortgage companys carried much of the losses during GFC

@garycarlton1891 8 ай бұрын

Yes, please have Melody back again!

@travelwithcamera 8 ай бұрын

It's the same story in Naples, Florida. They've massively overbuilt multi-family "luxury" units and they are sitting empty. They have all these promotions that are designed to circumvent the pricing, 2 months free, etc. They'll do anything except actually lower the advertised monthly rental price. How long can this go on before prices collapse and the whole thing crashes?

@rosemora4681 8 ай бұрын

People are so thirsty for truth an honesty. Please bring her back!

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@DanKohan 8 ай бұрын

What you're saying about houses being built for rich people but not regular folks is a big deal. And how some builders are making it seem like homes are sold when they're not is a problem too. You're doing important work by telling us what's really going on in the housing market. Thanks for sharing!

@ddhhayes 8 ай бұрын

It would be great to have Melody come back first quarter of 2024. Thanks Adam.

@davenchop 8 ай бұрын

when she would be proven to be completly wrong just like 90% of the guest on here most have some batshit crazy prediction about gold going to $5000 or the mkt dropping 50% ...blah blah blah.. always wrong but they get the masses squirming

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@RationalEgoism 7 ай бұрын

Housing prices will probably drop a bit by Q1 just due to seasonality. Then they'll likely rise again with the spring buying season, but we'll be able to compare prices to the prior years to see if she's right. I don't think prices will bottom until at least 2025 and it could be 2028.

@Jorgie1944 8 ай бұрын

In the Austin area, builders went to 100% spec during the madness because homes were taking 1 year or more to build and the values were going up at least 25% in the meantime. The builders realized they wanted a piece of that action and not only went to 100% spec but then went to having buyers submit bids as completion neared. Builders didn't answer calls, didn't bother staffing/building model homes. It was a God awful time to be shopping. I have no sympathy for any hardship they go through now and in the near future.

@alexdegaston422 8 ай бұрын

Any debt-free home builder with enough cash in the bank to pay for all their currently in-progress homes & other liabilities + payroll for the next 6 months will be fine. When a downturn in sales happens and they can't put their people to work building or selling then they'll have layoffs, sell their inventory at market price, and slow down (or even stop) on starting any new homes or buying new lots. The builders who will get into real trouble are those who are too greedy and/or irresponsible. So, suppose you have a homebuilder with zero debt, 200 homes in-progress, 100 finished homes not sold, plans for 40 home starts each month (with 1 month ahead commitment firm), 20 employees costing 200K/month total, they fully use subcontractors & spend 200K per home (over 5 months & 40 per month pipeline), spend 1K per finished home on maintenance/marketing, pay their subcontractors on average in full at the completion of each house (not sooner & not later - just to make the calculations here easy), and they have 100M cash in the bank (not counting accrued liabities). If sales of lots/homes completely STOP then they could stop all new homes commitments, budget 540K/month run rate for employees/maintenance of 340 homes, and set aside 48M to finish the 240 homes in-progress. Now they'd have 52M free cash in the bank to cover the 0.54M monthly run rate and they ought to be able to use fire sales on these 340 homes to ride out the storm while doing layoffs and each fire sale cuts 1K of maintenance/marketing costs monthly of unsold inventory. With a 52M position they could probably instead do a sudden cut of construction in HALF to 20/month and still keep a run rate of 4M per month for building homes. If they still aren't selling enough then within 3 months they can cut it to even half or a quarter of that with a 1-2M per month run rate starting with at least 40M cash. Suppose that the lots were 75K, sales prices were originally 350K, sales/transactions costs were 25K, and target gross margin was 50K. If home prices collapse by 80% to 70K/home (with 10K for admin/sales) those 340 homes should still bring in over 20M of cash & they won't be anywhere close to bankrupt. They could still build around 3 homes per year where they give the homes away for decades before they finally run out of money and have to close shop. I don't have any problem with corporate greed in of itself. What I have a problem with is when it is used to abuse other people, especially taxpayers, by socializing the losses. If a home builder is approved to start a home, then they better have the funding for completion/liabilities in place up front so if they cause any damages or don't finish then the city can have the project concluded in a manner that's not going to screw over the community. If the home builder is levered up financially where they don't have enough cash to meet their obligations then they should have insurances, bonds, and other cushions in place to ensure that their stakeholders who are eligible to get the rewards are fully covering the risks. That's where bondholders, preferred shares, pre-planned subcontractor liens, and other instruments in place are important to provide surety on the work. And if something goes wrong with a home being built then there should be plenty of insurance in place to cover liabilities of the builder for a very long time. Those liabilities' coverage should be funded up front before closing by some "new home" buyer. On this I'm reminded of that apartment complex that collapsed recently in Florida where the builders are long gone and their cutting corners led to lots of small guy bagholders being screwed, especially the ones who died in the collapse.

@alexi2460 7 ай бұрын

@@alexdegaston422clearly you have done due diligence. I'm curious as to why builders dont take the new insurance regulations and hikes into consideration,along with flat out dropping people or areas due to calamities, Florida sink hole, California fires, Texas dust storms, in addition to the climate variables, ie water supply in some parts of the country . My point, american corporate greed and the american dream has to be regulated, otherwise the average guy gets taken to the dry cleaner. Who's to be trusted

@chrislastnam6822 8 ай бұрын

There are essentially no new single family houses in the city of Los Angeles. There is no excess or hidden supply. You might find a new house with a two hour each way commute in the desert where it's currently 110 degrees.

@Likedress 7 ай бұрын

They know they will be bailed out, they don’t care, there is no need to learn lessons. Unless lobbying is banned and $ is out of politics, the only lesson they learned is REPEAT what they have been doing, make tons of $, then get bailed out which leads to make even more money for the next cycle! Thank you for inviting this amazing guest with critical thinking skills and boots in the ground

@rob_on_youtube 8 ай бұрын

Great guest with very deep industry knowledge. So sad to hear additional examples (to me) of how statistics published by the government and also the main short-term rental sites (airbnb, etc) and even MLS! are flawed....keeping the retailed investor blind to the real market fundamentals. Please have Melody back at least twice a year. Adam...thanks for what you do. I watch Wealthion videos every day.

@zaneenaz4962 8 ай бұрын

..this all seems to be intentional to allow top plays free rein. Government pushed out independents, and now small to mid-sized businesses....hmmmm

@TheLegendOZelda360 7 ай бұрын

I mean, there’s a level of divorce from reality to the people buying for investment properties to begin with. As someone closer to the working class level, I could tell you at the beginning of the pandemic there’s only so much money to go around in the portion of the population that already rents, with a 30% increase in average cost, it’s simply impossible to expect the same occupancy rates as it will force those who can move home or stay home to do so, or those who can’t to consolidate with roommates, become homeless, ect

@TheLegendOZelda360 7 ай бұрын

retail level investors are just as much to blame for the insanity in the market as the corporate investors who created the boom. They will be the main losers because they let their greed and desire to extort people who work for a living their hard earned wages oversaturate a market that was already dependent on financially vulnerable people to relinquish more of the money that could’ve gone to emergencies to their pockets, which will inevitably result in less viable renters as they are choked out. To me it’s exactly what they deserve. And I don’t want to see a single bail out for any investor, mom and pop or otherwise. I want to see them get back to work and get a real job producing something of value, rather than hoarding What was already there with Legacy credit scores.

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@5150dlg 8 ай бұрын

Melody is a rock star! She is a brilliant person and a wealth of information. Please bring her back on again!

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@jasonweishaupt1828 7 ай бұрын

She singing the doom and gloom melody pun intended.

@LTXsp 8 ай бұрын

Finally someone is willing to hit the road and investigate vs just reading skewed reports back to us. Bravo!

@istvanpraha 7 ай бұрын

It feels worse than 2007 here in downstate NY. I didn't even notice a housing bubble then. Normal people were buying normally priced houses. Now it's dual income executives buying dumpy houses in blue collar areas. It's insane. They're also buying later now, based on salaries that may not be stable (i.e. cushy office jobs/tech job type stuff)

@nbgen12 8 ай бұрын

Up vote for bringing her back!

@mackakiwinz4353 8 ай бұрын

Here in New Zealand the beach houses and boats are flooding to the market. Agents stating “family not using house very much” - yeah right! Cash flow strapped and indebted trying to offload but it’s too late our interest rates are higher than the US and the banks not lending ax running scared. Totally agree with Melody. Investors and the greedy trying to dump assets but it’s too late. Great interview. We need a residential collapse median income to median house price runs from anywhere between 9x to 16x completely unaffordable and needs to come back to 5x or 6x.

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@edriclamarkirkman 7 ай бұрын

Adam this was an INCREDIBLE interview! I just rewatched the Big Short last night and the insight and context Melody provided is almost deja vu of what Michael Burry did. By far one of the absolute best guests you have had on. Please have her back as soon as possible! Would love to see perhaps a panel style interview with her Nick Gherli, Neil Howe, and Amy Nixon, among others! Thanks again for your great work. The Value-Add is invaluable!

@ld4122 8 ай бұрын

YES! Bring Melody back again! She gives hope to regular home buyers!

@TheAlexa6 8 ай бұрын

In Ft. Bend County outside of Houston there’s been unprecedented building of SFH. My daughter owns a cleaning company and there are newly built neighborhoods with only 1 in 3 homes occupied. Meanwhile, builders are still building. When we were looking to move back here in summer 2022, I found dozens of brand new homes listed for rent that were just sitting there with price reductions over the course of months. Builders are offering obscene rate buy downs to 4.5-5.9% and inventory in for sale homes is mounting. Really appreciate this woman’s boots on the ground reporting.

@vdouglas0411 7 ай бұрын

I live in Harris County. Nice to hear a local perspective!

@Travelbythought 8 ай бұрын

In South America, some people would stack up bricks to preserve their buying power from a dropping currency. In America, people are stacking up houses for the same purpose. The Fed is to blame for this fiasco.

@jonEmontana 8 ай бұрын

Absolutely. We need laws to protect the avg home buyer and we needed them after the GFC. Fed is absolutely to blame along with the so called “free money” stimi crowd

@latenitejazz 8 ай бұрын

The people are to blame for electing representatives that spend like drunken sailors. This includes both Democratic and Republican administrations. The US has not had a responsible fiscal policy for 120 years.

@poloska9471 8 ай бұрын

They secured their power when they taught all children in school to think that the U.S. is the greatest nation in the world and that it is so because it is the wealthiest. Most average people grow up thinking the nation is rich because the government “does stuff” and when the government offers these people to spend a whole shit ton of money, they don’t ask “where is it coming from?” they simply go “yay! I’ll vote for you! I like free stuff! Yay! We are the greatest nation ever!”… after a few generations of this mental retardation, the parents don’t even know the first thing or meaning of the things that are behind fiscal policy, economy, politics, foreign policy, history, or even the simplest of personal/home finances… as a result, the U.S. and most of the west, including EU, have effectively invited corruption into power with open loving arms screaming “yay! Please do whatever your little hearts desire!”… when things go wrong, suddenly, it’s time to “occupy wall st”… lol okay… go ahead… as if that will do anything to change anything or even have any impact on anything… 🤷‍♂️ once those who stand to benefit from this are finished benefiting from it, there won’t be anything left to do, which has already been true for a few years… at this point, any financially educated westerner is preparing for a collapse of all collapses… they aren’t voting because they think it will change something, they are doing it to buy time to get rich and get out. That is now literally the best that can be done: get rich, get out. I advise anyone who reads this to do the same: get rich, get out, ASAP. Secure your wealth because this Ponzi scheme is about to blow up for the last time. You have enough time to get rich, you have time to get out, and watch it unfold… don’t wait until you only have time to get out… or only time to watch it unfold unto you and your family’s future. If nobody listens to you, that’s their problem; secure your own future. The arrogance goes deep in the west. It’s been 100 years of “we are the best, we have the best, everything is peaches and cream”… don’t even try to challenge that status quo, nobody cares. They will soon, but that’s not your problem.

@rexx9496 8 ай бұрын

But this housing inflation isn't limited to the US. It's happening in many countries across the world. Even sparsely population countries like Canada and Australia where land is abundant.

@Travelbythought 8 ай бұрын

@@rexx9496 Monetary inflation is not limited to the US, nearly all countries have been doing it.

@Mike_257 7 ай бұрын

The FED has insisted that the housing market will need to be reset!!!! The interest rate is higher for longer will severely damage the housing market for years to come!!! "We're having plenty of inventory, the problem is not enough people to afford it". The house price has been inflated up crazily for the last couple years!!!! Don't fight the FED!!! Best interview so far 👍. Thank you.

@Studeb 8 ай бұрын

If you can get a cheaper house next to a cemetery, I would definitely recommend it. I used to live in one, it was so quiet and peaceful, and the view out the window was calming and beautiful.

@ats89117 8 ай бұрын

Great segment. During the GFC I was confused on several occasions trying to buy a house in Las Vegas communities where most of the houses were obviously empty, but they told me that all the houses were sold and there were no houses for sale...

@HiggyBaby0U812 8 ай бұрын

"All the houses were sold" = All the hoses were owned by the banks

@ChrisGenXer 8 ай бұрын

Melody was a great guest! Really liked her perspective and boots on the ground insight that we would never know watching mainstream media. Would love to see her on the channel again!

@HiggyBaby0U812 8 ай бұрын

They could make The Big Short II based on what Melody is saying!

@jeanmetcalf1263 8 ай бұрын

Everybody’s been talking about the global financial crisis of 2008 for the last 15 years residential real estate offices and what it was 15 years ago for the most part homework is fixed rate mortgages

@leshait 7 ай бұрын

Please have Melody come back on. She is fantastic, and I truly loved her road trips to see the developments first hand and to dive into what was actually going on. Wonderful work. Reminiscent of the "Big Short" where those two actors went to houses that were owned by strippers, etc. etc.

@sandrapontius3500 8 ай бұрын

Would love to hear more. Homes should not be traded as stocks. I would love to see corporations let go of housing. Whether that will help the scarcity of affordable properties remains to be seen.

@charlesbrown9213 8 ай бұрын

Once upon a time in this country, a house was a place to start/raise a family, and to grow old in. Nowadays in America, housing is a RACKET. Homebuilders won't build small single family homes -- because they make more money, the larger the house is. The local tax regimes (states, counties, cities) prefer larger homes, because they receive bigger property tax payments. The Federal govt prefers bigger houses, because that means bigger mortgage debt, and debt creation is how money is created in our economy. The fix is in on families/households. The power-that-be all want you to be debt slaves, buying a far bigger house than is needed. Its makes everybody else rich, while the homeowner is left in debt servitude. Housing is a racket in this country.

@chestrockwell8328 8 ай бұрын

@@charlesbrown9213 I live in a large midwestern city with a strong economy, growth has been ongoing for decades. Most of the suburb cities are affluent though a couple are not. Few years ago I was speaking to a buddy who is in land development about building neighborhoods of smaller well made functional effeicient homes in one of these suburb cities. My buddy said he took a development plan for exactly this and they had no interest, the city planners said they only want 500k and up homes. Long way to say, yes Charlie, you are correct.

@xman666soad 7 ай бұрын

You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. If the banks could put aside their greed and LOVE OF MONEY, someone else would just do what the banks were doing. It’s game theory, once someone makes a move you can choose to lose out or you can choose to participate. You can’t stop everyone from doing it just because the biggest player stops playing the game, the game exists, players will learn the rules and play.

@JohnDaniels 7 ай бұрын

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson

@millsfinancialgroup 8 ай бұрын

Hoarding of houses like toilet paper during covid will have extreme negative outcomes at some point. We can all see it and feel it happening

@shanerogers9386 8 ай бұрын

It’s a Ponzi scheme at this point. Any effort to keep it propped up at these fake, fictional values or protect the financial interests of people responsible should be met with absolute brutality.

@tharblin 7 ай бұрын

Love your brilliant analysis. Short and sweet. Hoarding is what it is.

@chrissites 7 ай бұрын

Great info. I’m a realtor in south central PA and I appreciate the deep conversation where we talk about the real data and what is to come. I think a lot of agents don’t want a correction, but it needs to happen. Thanks for the great guest again, Adam. Definitely have her back!

@phillipfairnot7890 7 ай бұрын

Melody is awesome!!! Please have her come back. Best inside knowledge I've ever gotten on your channel.

@richringer4770 8 ай бұрын

One of the best informative interviews on housing I've seen so far the last 3 years. Wow!!!!! my jaw has dropped.

@gchekibed2099 8 ай бұрын

Boots on the ground always beats data. Because as she has shown, data is a number on a spreadsheet that has inputs that can be gamed. Actually enjoyed this Adam, thanks.

@10317 8 ай бұрын

I agree. Just following data is not really doing your homework. She sensed things were out of kilter so she went out and looked. She is expert in real estate. We are headed for a housing price correction. Never buy high. Because when there is a price drop you could be under water.

@vixi314 7 ай бұрын

I would love to hear more from Melody! This was by far the best discussion I've heard to gain some understanding on what's going on in the housing market.

@user-gw2vd4hy6h 7 ай бұрын

Melody Wright has sure done her homework!! Time well spent watching this video. Hope to see her again on your show.

@davidgouge6703 8 ай бұрын

Oh WOW, this is solid gold! She dished so much insider "dirt" that's new to me, I'm going to have to give this a 2nd, 3rd, Nth... listen. Great job scoring this interview! I hope that you have regular followups with her.

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@tomsettles6873 8 ай бұрын

This is very regional. In the pacific northwest we have a big shortage of housing and prices remain high. Regulations and limited land in proximity to big cities blocks large new subdivisions from being built in the PNW. In the southwest we have plenty of housing and prices coming down. In the southeast there's lots of existing homes for sale with some new build for sale but the SE has many poorer areas that new home builders avoid.

@johncoviello8570 8 ай бұрын

Same in the Northeast. They are running out of land to build new housing, but the population is growing, so demand is outpacing supply here. Many homes are selling above ask.

@spacecowboy2983 8 ай бұрын

Great interview! Melody is a treasure trove of info! Bring her back as often as you can!

@jbwentworthe6082 7 ай бұрын

Melody is a breath of fresh air - charming personality coupled with intelilgence and "true grit". Thank you for bringing her forward.

@ayelettsadeek1298 8 ай бұрын

Yes, please have her back. Thank you.

@heidihelo5773 8 ай бұрын

Melody is a wealth of knowledge. Please have her back. Fantastic job!

@BK-cl9ik 8 ай бұрын

In north east, plenty of high rise rentals are getting build for past 12/13 yrs. Mostly becos of cheap interest rates. No more empty lots. Most with average rental price around $3000. I used to think at least since 2013, no way people will be renting these many high price rentals. I was dead wrong & way off, the rental market prices only went up. including years 2008 / 2009 (with free months). there is no end in sight on prices going up.

@yourhomeadvocate 8 ай бұрын

Yes I love, love, love her.. I love the way she breaks everything down and explains it. Get her on again please

@philipkovalenko6192 8 ай бұрын

What a Bright Lady! How much Common sense in one Person! Absolute Nocturnal Animal! Thank you, Adam for having Her here.

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@NV-uv3yz 8 ай бұрын

This was fascinating. One because I sell exterior building products to builders and remodelers and secondly because I can see all of this happening within a mile of my home. There have been 6 new neighborhoods added in 3 years on one street.

@Michigancvhi 7 ай бұрын

As a home inspector in metro Detroit area I completely agree with her. I have several clients from out of state buying properties and grouping them into one loan and they are inexperienced and are in a world of shock when issues arise

@peronasteski9072 7 ай бұрын

Melody is a breath of fresh air for analysis of the housing market ,straight to the point and honest ,live her

@the_derpler 8 ай бұрын

Another problem I would not be shocked to see is that most of the new units being built are just more suburban sprawl. More units need to be built in places people actually want to live.

@sled5050 7 ай бұрын

Exactly right on the point , who needs those houses that 3h drive from work.

@dp100951 8 ай бұрын

Concealed inventory tends to make people think demand is higher than it really is. This tends to keep prices high.

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@sampotter4455 8 ай бұрын

I'm in the suburbs of Phoenix here and yes, we have swarms of spec homes being built! And yes, theses homes are not affordable for average people. Apparently we've learned nothing from 2008.

@hunter2z 7 ай бұрын

Adam thank you and Danielle for high lighting Melody's work. Melody is one of the first of your guests to have done the "dirty work" of driving around and seeing what is happening on the ground. After Melody, I am back to what I learned in high school: question everything. Melody also showed what Nick Gurley pointed out that the data underlying the real estate listings is suspect. Melody pointed out how the inventory was being hidden in many different ways. Danielle's comment about a perfect storm seems spot on. You mentioned in the video the surge in not paying? How is that being reported? What qualifies as non-payment? When does one have to register a "non-payment"? What makes up all the data? I am left after her briefing wondering what is real and what is not. Anyone who understands finance is likely asking the same question. Off balance sheet / accounting methodology --> we have a major accident waiting to happen.

@Golden.5555 8 ай бұрын

Have her back to discuss what to do in this scenario

@maunykaseburg7969 7 ай бұрын

YES, please have Melody back on. She's so grounded, so real...such a refreshing voice in a world that's so DRAMATIC.

@whyu2881 7 ай бұрын

Thank you, Adam, it's refreshing to get the TRUE info for the Real Estate Market. I have been waiting to buy for several years because I know better than to buy into a bubble of any kind. Melody Wright is a gem and I hope you can bring her back in the near future so we can have our timing right to reenter the housing market to purchase a home to survive in without getting burned.

@Barbara0015 7 ай бұрын

@coffeecupman 8 ай бұрын

This may be the most important Wealthion interview I've ever seen

@SamWhitlock 8 ай бұрын

This has gotta be the best housing analyst I've ever seen on this channel. Wow such a wealth of info in here 👏

@lachicarivers51demilo52 8 ай бұрын

Melody was an amazing guest! Adam, definitely bring her back. Thank you.

@Robert-qh3ok 8 ай бұрын

Incredible guest! Real on the ground reporting. Please have her back regularly...

@BatmanBoss 8 ай бұрын

Bring her back in 4 months 👍👍

@JohnStewart-vu9mo 8 ай бұрын

this is awesome, she got in her car and went to see for herself. Amazing market manipulation. Please, please... higher for longer till they get what they deserve.

@williamsdavis. 7 ай бұрын

@paulah99 8 ай бұрын

You both are rock, Adam & Melody! ❤ I saw the same real pictures across the valley. So many new builds are paused their constructions on the weekends and very quiets at sites compared to last year or months ago, but seeing zombies/shadowed occupants.

@dreamfire5210 8 ай бұрын

Really good report. She gives good reasons for her point of view rather than mindless doom and gloom we see a lot of.

@10317 8 ай бұрын

I agree dreamfire.

@onedaily2471 8 ай бұрын

Nah. Nobel prize winner in economics, Ben Bernanke, said, “we’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.” 😂

@mooselodge3881 8 ай бұрын

Bwahahaha

@quixomega 8 ай бұрын

That's true, on a long term. You can say the same thing about anything, as long as we use an inflationary monetary system. However, the real number is "inflation adjusted" which gives you a much more interesting idea of how housing prices have boomed and bust in the past.

@thomaskelly6472 8 ай бұрын

How about the aging baby boomers who will be needing to unload there oversized homes. More inventory coming than needed! Lower prices on the horizon!

@mackakiwinz4353 8 ай бұрын

Very good point ageing boomers here trying to unload their inflated assets most can’t so reverse mortgages like Heartland Bank here in NZ are thriving as boomers asset rich cashflow poor are reversing their mortgages often without telling their children apparently 😂

@danielturner9832 8 ай бұрын

My son just relocated to Vermont for his job. Housing has a long way to come down there and he is waiting it out with a very large down payment. It is incredible the large number of homes listed as Airbnb. The recession coming will put a large number of them on the market.