WHAT ARE THE BEST COMMANDER MASTERS AND RESERVED LIST CARDS IN cEDH? - THE PLAY TO WIN PODCAST

Dylan and Cam discuss the best cards form Commander Masters and the Reserved List in cEDH and try to figure out what the format would look like without the Reserved List cards
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[@benbarclay4239]

cam getting his heart broken during magic origins is deep lore

[@b_radmostwanted]

The whole idea of "I don't want to play your wallet, I want to play" is exactly what I said to my play group to help open up our cEDH meta. I dont understand people's issue with proxies.

[@Z3RO458]

outside of a tournament setting I've seen people use cheap printing paper over a magic card lol during a tournament I'd personally prefer believable proxies but if you bust out a time twister, I draw the line there lol

[@xoravenamongdovesxo]

It’s times like this that makes me sad I didn’t learn how to play until after COVID. I have never known a Magic life that didn’t have collector boosters, no blocks, hella releases. :/

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

I (Cam) have always wished I found the game much earlier than i did too, but I'm happy for the time I have with it

[@Mox_Normandy]

What they're doing currently is crazy compared to how magic was when I started in 2012. It can be sad sometimes to think how much it's changed but that's for better and worse. More people play now than ever and that makes me happy even if the too many products can get overwhelming. I know it won't just go back but i hope that we settle back to something more reasonable in time.

[@bolekwolski7583]

By far my favorite mtg channel. I love that ur not as delicate and pure so to say as other cedh content creators. Much love from Poland! Dont ever change!!!!!

[@billymtg]

surprised no mention of gilded drake during reserve list conversation

[@TripsAhoy]

Came here to say this!!!

[@ValinShadow]

this

[@justintaylor3416]

Your comments on proxies, especially in cEDH is so refreshing. I think you should push this more and definitely make a short highlighting your views. Thank you for focusing on the pilot and the deck construction and speaking againist the prohibitive prices.

[@evangrizzle4417]

Also worth noting as far as Gruff rewrites history: it’s for each player choose one, not up to one. So it’s like decimate where it fizzles if there isn’t enough legal targets

[@satansamael666]

To add on, the flipped cards are casted. Drannith Magistrate is nutty with that.

[@jasonboe1752]

I think one strategy that was overlooked with Guff Rewrites History is that it does NOT specify "non-token". It could get pretty one sided if you have 12 dockside treasures to flip into other spells.

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

That's a lot of value!

[@thestrugglingchef30]

Yup seems interesting to say the least

[@tacobell2009]

You only get one target per player. So you could only flip one of your treasures in that scenario, unless you're copying it somehow.

[@voidprism_studios666]

@@tacobell2009 Yeah I don't see how this would work with 12 treasures.

[@TripsAhoy]

Reading is hard lol

[@foddersfollies7494]

At the time of the reprinting of Imp Seal, the P3K copy was over 1300 dollars and the judge promo was over 600. Now the judge is under 400 and the P3K is around 1k.

[@FullFatMayo1]

Grim Tutor too. Was 250-300 for at least 15 years, now 70 post reprint.

[@definitelynotmany4972]

13:20 It is great for everyone because you always have something to look forward to. And even though the sealed product is more expensive than ever, the sealed product has always been an awful investment, and singles are cheaper than ever. I remember those days of having one commander product a year, and be disappointed every time it was released, and having to wait another year for a new product to come out. I do think the spoiler season starts too soon compared to the release of the set, but I know shops need to have as much info as possible to do preorders.

[@cobalt3142]

Regarding the math on finding an instant-caster: If you have a 100-card deck, there are (100 choose 40) ways of drawing 40 cards (without replacement). If 4 of them are the flash-givers you want, then 96 of them are not, and so drawing any combination of 40 cards you do not want is (96 choose 40). From these, the probability of finding none of the cards you want is (96 choose 40)/(100 choose 40), or around 12.4%, so the probability of finding at least one of them in the first 40 cards you look at is 1 - 0.124 = 87.6%.

[@lucasc9142]

The odds are better than this because you also see 7 cards on a good first hand or first mulligan, your commander is not in your library, and you probably drew a few cards by the time that you zur necropotence to the battlefield or cast it.

[@lucasc9142]

Also I haven’t taken a math class in so long so perhaps this equation leads to the same math outcome but each time you activate necro you also have a greater chance of getting the 4 of ___ chance. So say you draw 7 and keep and draw card for turn and you blast out some fast mana and dark ritual a necro to the board. You have 91 cards left in library so forst necro activation is 4/91 chance and second necro activation is 4/90 chance as you progress as you further activate. I believe your math reveals the chance that in 40 occurrences of someone activating necro for the first time with 96 cards in library that not a single one of those instances results in any of the 4 flash enablers showing up after that activation.

[@cobalt3142]

@@lucasc9142 Yep, this math assumes that you have seen 40 cards in your deck after opening hand/commander and card draws until necropotence, then necropotence until you have seen exactly 40 cards. If you want more specific math, you can replace 40 with however many cards you expect to see and adjust the number of successes/failures accordingly

[@janmelantu7490]

15:40 to quote Ben Wheeler, “there’s so much space in my brain taken up by Invasion block draft commons that could be taken up by the names of my Nieces and Nephews”

[@marcomx8069]

I think you missed rhe gilded drake, even if it doesn't see a lot of play anymore

[@NewSchoolPOKERstrat]

Even after the RL I bought all the dual lands between $10 and $20 each. Sold them in like 2010😢 for $2k (41 duals in total) Now I’ve got one more card I need to finish my irl Malcolm tana deck. It’s volcanic island 😖 Proxy free local tourney coming.

[@bruhgh609]

12:40 Absolutely! That's a really good point to make. I've bought cards thinking they were good and now they just sit in a box...... *paradigm shift*

[@zimagic]

Looking forward to watching your "thought experiment" gameplay video where you remove all reserved list cards from your favourite decks!❤

[@definitelynotmany4972]

20:40 I am 100% sure if the RC bans the reserve list, WOTC bans the RC

[@dwrecked9329]

Great video. For the zur/shimmer myr thing.. you're looking at a hypergeometric distribution. There's calculators online to make it easy, but going to your example.. Assuming a 99 card deck. If you have 2 cards you're looking for and you go through 40 cards.. 10 natural and 30 necro.. you're at a 64.7% chance of getting atleast 1 of the 2. You're 16% to get both. Assuming a 99 card deck. If you have 4 cards you're looking for and get 40 cards.. you're looking at a 87.9% of getting atleast 1 of the 4. You're 53.3% to get 2 or more. Obviously, mulligans, other draw, scry, will change these numbers.

[@GoldSabertooth]

Mardu Summer! The shirt made it to you! Looks terrific, thanks homies!

[@mikeb.1475]

You know what a great idea actually playing the band list that you mentioned with the reserves a pod to see how the actual flow of the game would change

[@TheSpunYarn]

Something I like about Guff Rewrites History is that it gives Mono Red/Red-Sans-Blue decks a way to stop wins on the stack by attempting to flip blue players into counter magic.

[@chrisvanderheiden12]

Saying "nonenchantment, nonland" also excludes things like enchantment creatures that could be hit if it was written in the inclusive fashion.

[@TCG9777]

Cam brought the feels with Magic Origins holy cow...

[@FailOwlProductions]

I don't know if it will be fully be strong enough for CEDH, but Guff Rewrites History is very synergistic with Boromir, Lavinia, 3Feri, Drannith. Giving you a 3 for 1 to start, even more value if your opponent loses an important spell of the top of their deck, and can switch one of your tokens for a better spell/permanent.

[@jonaswilliams9755]

Don't forget Gilded Drake is on the Reserve List as well.

[@bruhgh609]

Shimmer Myr, Skittering Cicada, Liberator. I built Shimmer Zur, seems like a good idea to have all three, you're definitely gonna hit one of them.

[@definitelynotmany4972]

17:20 People didn’t want to keep playing MTG because they thought Wizards was “scamming” them by devaluing their cards, just as they do today, so they installed the reserve list to get those players back into the game. I personally think it would be worth it for them to reprint the reserve list, but in their point of view seems not to be worth the hassle. And in this time and age, it seems less likely they would abolish it since there is low trust for WOTC to maintain the price of cards; abolishing it would destroy that trust.

[@samadams5530]

They won't reprint ot now because a bunch of collectors will sue. Even if they have no grounds to, Wizards will be out on legal fees fighting them all. So theirs no point for them to

[@definitelynotmany4972]

@@samadams5530 I know. My point is that I think they can buy them out/ recoup the legal fees in profit and be worth for them in the long run.

[@AkatsuRed]

I haven't bought a magic set since Kaledesh. Since Commander is the only form of Magic I now play with my friends, this seemed like a good opportunity for myself to kinda enjoy cracking a box open with a lot of commander staples in it. I proxy a majority of my decks because I haven't had the time or resources til recently to start gathering singles. Also, I think it'll be fun to have a nice little sealed draft with the boys 😂🎉

[@thestrugglingchef30]

Soulless jailer, grafdiggers cage and dranith all turns Gruff Rewrites History into a three for one removal spell so maybe instead of using it against a stax deck it's the stax deck that's using it against everyone else XD..............yeah...........fun stuff.

[@thestrugglingchef30]

Also if it's a feather deck you just do it over and over

[@hellproof2379]

Congrats babyjeebus! Heard your name in almost every episode so it’s almost like you’re a part of the show lol

[@nCedric1]

I got my heart broken during the All will be one - aftermath arc, if it makes you feel better Cam :)

[@bundung123]

I'm having product fatigue. there's way too many stuffs coming out and it's waytoodank

[@jacobbecicka2291]

Same, I had to quit buying boxes and packs and now I buy a few commanders, the bombs, and the possible cedh staples. One of each then proxy the duplicates.

[@stormtrooperjeepjk]

I just bought a box of unfinity on a hunt for some fun staples and shock lands lol. At $98 it seems like some good value

[@moistnar]

9:20 It's a Friday and I don't want to do real work so I ran the numbers on this (fun math sidenote: this is called a cumulative hypergeometric probability): Odds of drawing into at least 1 "creature that allows you to cast things at instant speed" in seeing 40 cards, given you play 4 such spells: 87.5% Same prob but with only 30 cards: 76.6% Same prob but with only 20 cards: 59.7% And just for fun, here's the same calculations, but if you vary the number of "creature that allows you to cast things at instant speed" slots: 2 slots: 40 cards: ~64% 30 cards: ~51% 20 cards: ~36% 3 slots: 40 cards: ~79% 30 cards: ~66% 20 cards: ~49% 5 slots: 40 cards: ~92% 30 cards: ~84% 20 cards: ~68%

[@wat_omy]

My buddy has a Kozilek distortion cedh deck. Even since flashhulk it’s been such a powerhouse. I’m a midrange meta is just such a powerhouse

[@TripsAhoy]

The flasher lol. Invisible Stalker is the original flasher lol. One of my fav arts.

[@arthurgolia7252]

I have a suggestion for your next Commander game is to play with cEDH/high powered Commander(s) of your choice and make casual or semi-high power decks with them with a set of rules. 1:No Mana positive cards 2:No I win cards/one card combo’s and lastly the decks must be under $500-1000

[@s4ad0wpi]

Frankly, "What's the best non-reserve list Commander in cEDH?" would be a fun video!

[@therealax6]

Are there any reserved list commanders that see any play?

[@nthnthms1212]

Best magic content on youtube.

[@egoish6762]

80% ish for 4 flasher out of 90 drawing 30. It's really hard for masques to be the favourite set for those of us starting ~25 years ago

[@sushislayer6974]

9:15 that calculation requires you to put those numbers into a hyper geometric calculator and figure out the percentages

[@liampierce8607]

Y’all I totally agree. I love cedh because I don’t need to give hasbro money

[@alanschellenberger9356]

if the format slowed down like that, grixis might start running divining witch again to have more ways to focus on thoracle

[@GlenNorth]

"Don't talk to me about small sample size!" "What's small sample size?" "I don't know, DON"T TALK ABOUT IT!" I'm dead 🤣

[@kju-uu8me]

9:00 (about the probability of hitting at least one Shimmer Myr) I did some maths, correct me if I made a mistake. On your first draw you have 100 cards that you can hit and 4 that you wanna hit. So the chances not to hit the Shimmer Myr on the first draw are 96/100. More generally on you n-th draw (if you haven't drawn one yet) are (97-n)/(101-n) because like that the amount of cards we can hit and the amount of cards we "don't wanna hit" each decrease by 1 with each draw. If we Substitute every number from 1 to 40 for n and multiply all the results that first simplifies to 96!/56! * 60!/100! and then to (60*59*58*57)/(100*99*98*97) which in turn is approximately equal to 1/8. So the probability to hit at least one Shimmer Myr is approximately equal to 7/8 compared to the probability of 4/5 (it is a bit less) with three Shimmer Myrs in the Deck.

[@MultiEeeeeeeeee]

I think you have made some mistakes, gonna try to correct it knowing that I may explain it wrong as well. First, the silly mistake: on first draw you draw from a 99 list of cards, not 100. Second: Let's say you run a single Shimmer Myr. Following your argument, which was correct, the probability of getting it on your initial hand is the opposite of not getting it -> Not getting it is 98/99*97/98*96/97* ... *(99-7)/(100-7) = 92/99 -> The opposite is 1 - 92/99 = 7/99, so you have around a 7% of getting it on the initial hand. I think your mistake comes from that 56 and 60 that appear in your calculations. If you play 3 "Shimmer Myr", the calculation changes to 96/99*95/98* ... * (99-3-7)/(100-7) = 0.800... -> Getting at least one "Shimmer Myr" on the initial hand is around 20%

[@wesleypollek4637]

15:19 had me rolling 🤣 y'all have some of the funniest and most relatable mtg content

[@Mcrypt117]

I love you guys!!!!! Tell Tyler to join in on the next one!!!

[@Snskch3]

I just purchased a near mint gaea’s cradle with a ton of bulkish cards that I traded in to Card kingdom. I am also looking at adding a real mox diamond and a dual land. I want stuff that won’t get reprinted and lose all my value.

[@MrGrovak]

I totally agree with the set immersion, and now we are being bombarded by new toys every other week. I have to imagine that even newer plauers are getting overwhelmed by the perpetual hype.

[@Quimet93]

I have a different point of view about proxy cards. I spend my money on good cards, so i expect people to respect the others players and not just proxy 14K decks just to have better cards. So that's why I like playing in local tournaments where proxies are not allowed so decks are 100% honest.

[@Odjur]

8:25 If you are drawing 40 cards, you have a ~95% chance of drawing at least 1 of your 4 cards you are looking for. 1 - sum x=1 x->40 ((96-x)/(100-x))^40

[@the_real_shoes]

Does anyone know where Dylan got that shirt? It's sweet.

[@adarklight505]

I came to ask this as well

[@toctheyounger]

Me makes three

[@titak7755]

Chronicles is the set that Wotc printed reprints to Oblivion which killed a lot of value, so collectors were upset about that. The mox diamond FTV was before they changed their reserved list policy (reserved list originally could still get special printing IE: promos and ftvs) which forced them to say no reserved list printings at all since ppl were upset. That mox is more expensive now cuz it's the knly foil printing. Imperial seal is a bad example because P3K was super under printed and is still very rare from that set (as noted by the 100+ vs 20 listing on tcg) If we got black bordered duals nowadays, revised duals would plummet (30th anniversary doesn't count since they are essentially proxies for tournaments)

[@smigdiggel]

Hey

[@titak7755]

Jetmir stax is a relatively cheap but powerful entry point. Winota can also be pretty powerful and easy to play!

[@sergiomartinez-tf4ri]

You guys can always play without the reserve cards and see how much of an impact there really is.

[@bdrsescanor6804]

I would like to state, if you have a dranith magistrate on field. "Gruff re-writes history" effectively removes three non enchantment non permanent cards for your opponents while netting you something potentially better.

[@TheGrifcannon22]

The other side of the reserve list argument is that most of the power nine was banned in commander because it was already expensive and on the reserve list, so maybe if it could be reprinted and the price dropped enough they would consider unbanning it.

[@DiabloTraeluz]

i know you're trying to be specific but if you have four cards that do pretty much the same thing, and you're drawing close to half your deck, you *should* run into at least one. of course, sometimes shuffling puts all your stuff to the bottom of the deck but y'know.

[@mrniceguy00987]

I would love to see a video on reserve list cards that are powerful that you would play if they were more accessible what would you play and how would it effect the format cards like moat, the abyss, the tabernacle at pendrell value, land equilibrium, eureka, land equilibrium, forcefield,guardian beast, Nethervoid, and I know it's essentially banned because woke reasons but invoke prejudice what out of these cards and any others on the reserve list would you play if accessible. Just a thought

[@DavidGreen-ly5tm]

I feel like metalworker might have been overlooked as a reserve list creature of relevance. It has seen a drop off in play but in terms of power I feel it is still very much up there.

[@09Dragonite]

Beelzebub has the devil WHAT?! 😂😂😂 god i love you guys

[@andrewpalella9923]

Chronicles was when the reserved list was made. Theres arguments that the reserved list saved magic as a game and hobby. That being said, just cause something was good for you in the past doesnt mean its working for you now.

[@wongwei7830]

4/99 = 4.040404040404...% Chance of drawing a card with that effect in 40 draws would = 1 - (95/99)(94/98)(93/97)....(56/60) Which is about .887 = 88.7%

[@noahsnyder7835]

Meticulous evacuation also replaces Barrin

[@morganhaney8147]

Tinker would be a game changer if they unbanned it! 😂😅 I agree with most should be playable, there are a couple that should forever remained banned (due to cards that are out now a days vs back then!) Great video thanks again guy's!!!🎉

[@NewSchoolPOKERstrat]

So the math on the shimmer Myrs is like this; 4 out of 40 = 10% True But that means you have a 10% chance for a single card drawn. Note: this does not follow normal addition.. that is to say, drawing 4 cards wouldn’t give you a 40% chance. Well, obv because drawing 10 cards def doesn’t give you a 100% chance

[@galarosr248]

I don't normally interject on a video but I do want to offer my iteration on the over abundance of products being released in MTG. I haven't played consistently in over a year due to extraneous circumstances but I heard "Commander Masters" came out today. Expected it to be around the price of OG double masters or Time Spiral on release and thought id get 6-7 packs for around 70-80 USD. Walked in and the draft Boosters were 17 a piece. And Set 25. Like, how does that bring down availability. I know WOTC says they don't watch the secondary market, but imo masters sets are the proof that they do. If they are putting ink on cardboard for new sets at 4-6 USD a pack, and "masters" sets with chase cards that are actually good (looking at you 'letter of acceptance'), then a masters set shouldnt be more than 4-6 a pack. Otherwise it is doing nothing to help people get into what is a casual format. I personally want to try CeDH, but have no idea how to get the proxies and cant afford the cards. Sorry for the long winded comment, just really irked that a set for my favorite format is beyond affordable.

[@lucasc9142]

I’m not sure how to actually condense the math into an equation with input-able values that can be used to calculate the chance of getting any one of the flash enablers based on the number you run and the number of activations from a library with a given value. What I did do though is assume your commander is in your command zone, you have drawn your first seven, and drew first for turn. Necro is on battlefield turn one. So your library is 91 cards and you play necro and you run 4 flash enablers. So the base chance to not get one off of an 87/91 then the next activation is 86/90, 85/89… and so on as you continue to pull for an enabler. You have to multiple each of the changing event probabilities to actually answer the question what are the chances that I do not get a single flash enabler based on x number of activations. Once you calculate the chance of not getting a single one at any number of activation you subtract that from 1 to get the chance to actually get one. With 91 starting cards to pull from in the library on turn one, you have a 40.8% chance at 10 activations to get an enabler, 65.7% at 20 activations, 81.8% at 30 activations, and 90.8% at 39 activations (don’t kill yourselves y’all).

[@lucasc9142]

If you were to run 3 shimmer myr cards your chance at 10 is 32.3%, at 20 is 54.9%, at 30 is 71.8%, and at 39 is 83.2%

[@flarefangshadow]

Commander Masters was the final straw that broke my stupid block headed attempt at being proxy free.

[@gaffehest2461]

You cast(!) things flipped into by Guff, so RoL decks might want to try it out

[@TripsAhoy]

Gilded Drake is over here saying wtf you guys forgot about me?!?!?! Lol

[@Hashbrown1682]

Dang Dylan rocking that mullet

[@alanschellenberger9356]

y'all need to start playing tivit, you're gonna love it. do it you won't

[@PogloRB2]

I cant believe they didnt even mention gilded drake

[@SethVeit]

I'm looking at my Gitrog list, and if they banned reserve list cards I would lose Survival of the Fittest, Squandered Resources, Chains of Mephistopheles, Mox Diamond, Grim Monolith, Bayou, City of Traitors, Bazaar of Baghdad, Lake of the dead, and Gaea's Cradle. The deck would be so much worse.

[@adarklight505]

I saw someone else ask, too. Where did the shirt Dylan is wearing come from?

[@nickrossi5992]

That Dihada shirt though! Is that in the merch store or did you get it somewhere else?

[@nickrossi5992]

(Watching on my lunch hour and haven’t finished the video yet if you say)

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

GOLDSABERTOOTH

[@nickrossi5992]

APPRECIATED 🤘🏼

[@oscarperezcame]

and what about printing new cards, maybe a little nerfed but similar to the expensive reserved list ones? but nothing like the enchantment ones from Ixalan cuz those suck... I mean like a pseudo LED but it costs 1 mana instead of 0... or pseudo timetwister but each player loses 10 life... Idk, something like that

[@titak7755]

They do this, Jeweled Lotus and Wheel of Misfortune are good examples.

[@BrandinoYT]

Where did Dylan get that shirt from? Love that style

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

GOLDSABERTOOTH

[@SaintJimmy36]

Cam and Dylan embracing the endless now at the end (Do cedh fans play Xenoblade?)

[@bounds8622]

'Is this The Nightman all of a sudden?' 😂😂😂😂

[@CherryDad]

consider: instant speed enablers

[@Dracomandriuthus]

Hey Dylan, Xiahou Dun. Like 150 bucks and not on RL. They really should have printed Xiahou in CMM

[@Dracomandriuthus]

Also for a non Portal card, Mana Crypt still absurd

[@DexterityYTC]

Banning reserve list might not hurt CEDH too much, but it would absolutely devastate casual high power.

[@thecrowsnest2872]

NGL… no reserve list cEDH sounds really fun

[@Totadile45]

Birds of paradise is a great example of the reserved list being irrelevant. Alpha one is still worth a couple grand

[@jaisonk22]

Oh my where Dylan get that shirt from? 👀

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

GOLDSABERTOOTH

[@joshuabillie5083]

Nameless inversion is a nice copy of spatial contortion

[@bbzoznova]

Wizards made it very clear they don't expect people to buy everything They are trying to attract players

[@e749]

Man I love Dylan’s shirt, anyone know where to get it?

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

GOLDSABERTOOTH

[@thelongboardguru_i.t.6096]

Isn't gilded drake on the reserve list and a creature that would affect the format?

[@marcusforrest3172]

The mardu shirt 👀👀

[@lancenaquin8911]

Funny that losing rector would also make green worse

[@assael2]

Guff rewrites history + Drannith Magistrate... 💅

[@CeltiesSin]

I coulda sworn I’ve seen a printing of Wheel of Fortune other than the alpha one, but I guess I’m trippin >_> might have been an alt or somethin…

[@titak7755]

Wheel of fortune has 5 printings, alpha, beta, unlimited, revised, and a judge promo. All but the promo existed before the reserved list. The promo was made after the reserved list but before they changed the RL rules to disallow special printings.

[@tylercraft8484]

guys what about gilded drake??!

[@brandonjones5614]

If RL gets banned, doesn’t stax just take over the format completely? I think Turbo becomes midrange, midrange becomes stax, stax becomes… worse stax? Suddenly 90 minutes isn’t enough for tournament matches. This is like gaming out how the apocalypse unfolds

[@zaneearldufour]

Don't sweat the math too much - high school math classes don't usually teach this one (I think it's called the hypergeometric distribution). Like, you're not dumb, you just haven't been taught this one (idk why it isn't in HS stats classes)

[@Olivia-ev9hk]

We actually do teach it in algebra 2. Most students just glaze over and forget it.

[@rmg222]

you guys are awesome!

[@PlaytoWinMTG]

Appreciate you!

[@GHSTKamiKaze]

Dylan reminds me of Post Malone without face tattoos

[@Modest7787]

Best is probably eldrami lord of leaves in my opinion