Tesla Teardown Insights: Can the Legacies Ever Catch Up? - AAH 678

TOPICS:
- Caresoft’s teardown of Tesla & BYD cars shows just how far ahead they are of legacy OEMs
- Legacy OEMs need to unlearn procedures that made sense in an ICE world but do not in an EV world
- Cultural practices will make it very difficult for legacy OEMs to catch up
PANEL:
Mathew Vachaparampil, CEO, Caresoft
Joe White, Reuters
Gary Vasilash, on Automotive
John McElroy, Autoline.tv
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[@richpadgitt2555]

Interesting that both Mathew V. and Sandy Munro are saying almost the exact same thing regarding Tesla vs. OEMs

[@TimKennedy1]

My thoughts exactly

[@echoeversky]

in this house we obey the laws of thermodynamics!

[@michaeloreilly657]

Tesla and Chinese brands V OEMs.

[@georgepelton5645]

@@michaeloreilly657 Tesla and the Chinese brands are also OEMs.

[@dealerovski82]

Glad someone watched the whole thing and could draw a conclusion summary. Couse I aintl.

[@michaelkim3432]

Excellent talk, thanks John! Mathew made a very very important point - let's all be proud of the fact that Tesla is an American company and leading innovation in an industry where we were falling behind!

[@Mathis218337]

I wish more people would realize this. Without Tesla, we would lose auto manufacturing completely to China longer term. Tesla might save American auto manufacturing.

[@VoltLover00]

Building the lowest quality cars in the industry is not innovation

[@Mathis218337]

@@VoltLover00 they’re not low quality lol

[@waynerussell6401]

@@VoltLover00The data shows Tesla has best customer satisfaction, retainment and conversion.

[@jeffpicken5057]

@@VoltLover00 You're just trolling. You have no idea what you're talking about. Let's see some data. Some sources. We'll wait.

[@205rider8]

GM wasted $billions on stock buybacks that they should used to write off sunk costs.

[@johnryan6003]

Legacy manufacturers wasted billions on having to pay Tesla regulatory credits because Legacy refused to build cars that met the regs. They knew they would have to pay those fees to someone and just said”fine”. Tesla used those BILLIONS in fees for CapEx and R&D. Thanks Legacy

[@jeffg4570]

Maybe legacy OEMs need to decide if they want to be around in eight years or if just three years is good enough.

[@danharold3087]

@@johnryan6003 The point is that Legacy made this choice. They have a bad case of "we don't know how to do this"

[@briandolbec37]

Mary "Led". She is leading the company to her golden parachute. She won't be around for the ashes of what is left of GM to try and salvage.

[@DaBooster]

No worries, they get billions more from the taxpayers in a few years

[@nickmcconnell1291]

This video actually answered the question posed in its title: No, the OEMs won't make it. The pace of innovation is all that counts and they cannot move fast enough to keep up. They are going to go under or be a small shell of their former selves at best.

[@brunoheggli2888]

Hahaha...delusional!

[@georgepelton5645]

Sounds like one Chinese OEM may go to production at the same time as Tesla, or maybe even sooner. Some OEMs will make it, IMO.

[@elemenop718]

they should have never been bailed out in 2008. Maybe the EV1 team could have started a company...

[@cartermiller2705]

Agree. Think Kodak

[@jeffpicken5057]

@@elemenop718 It's all about votes. Lot of union workers at these plants. Lots of towns whose economies dependent on these factories. This will be a very interesting election cycle.

[@egoequus6263]

People keep forgetting that Tesla initially only had that Fremont plant and built the Model S in a mostly traditional way, other than the drivetrain. They then kept retooling that one plant and even resorted to tents for later generation models before proceeding to other factories. Legacy can do this too, but they choose not to.

[@michaeloreilly657]

Oversimplification! ICE vehicles are still profitable.

[@egoequus6263]

@@michaeloreilly657 If they wait for ICE to become unprofitable, they won't have any cash flow to finance retooling and new factories. Legacy is just betting they will be bailed out again by governments. Their business plan is Too Big to Fail, which will probably work, again.

[@elemenop718]

@@michaeloreilly657 Nokia phones were still profitable into 2015 😂 then they had to pivot the business to a B2B business...

[@renezr70]

Your assessment is wrong. When Tesla received the NNUMI plant it was an empty building no machinery was available and the paint shop was unusable. They had to build the assembly lines from cero. There already alot of manufacturing analysts saying that retrofitting a assembly line from ICE to EV is as expensive as building a new assembly. So maybe this is way Ford is building a new manufacturing plan for EVs instead of retrofitting

[@egoequus6263]

@@renezr70 I was not implying that Tesla retrofitted an ICE line. That first Model S line was not significantly different than an ICE line in overall workflow. Probably more robots than a typical GM or Toyota plant, but the flow was very similar. They didn't really start rethinking clean sheet assembly until Model 3, which is what caused "Production Hell". Even today, Model S, X, 3, Y mostly just share supply chain, stamping, painting workflows. MY is their most evolved. CT is experimental. M3 has yet to even get the full casting workflow and structural pack (which completely changes the line). S,X is still the traditional bodyshop. Tesla is like 3 1/2 different assembly plant designs, but running mostly well. If they can unify all the workflows, they can realize a lot more cost savings and quality.

[@raarora1]

What an awesome discussion without any BS. Thanks for sharing.

[@CC-yr2nx]

Very sane and lucid exchange of information. Tesla is 5 years in front of EU and US OEM's and 2 in front of china's OEM. What happens when they introduce AI in the mix? The future is going to be interesting!

[@alexl266]

Excellent discussion, not just because the guest said nice things about Tesla, but because he was able to talk calmly and articulately on some novel manufacturing concepts. It's easy to find Tesla fans who just love Tesla, and it's easy to find Legacy fans who think Tesla is nothing special, but it's rare to find someone who can bridge the gap.

[@hudsojt]

One word describes what Tesla has brought about - disruption, and they are real good at it.

[@Agnemons]

Having your head pulled out of your arse is painful and messy. And that is what Tesla is doing to Legacy Auto.

[@VoltLover00]

Real disruption to build the lowest quality cars on sale

[@0ooTheMAXXoo0]

@@VoltLover00All actual official statistics from several countries have Tesla towards the top. At the worst time of the model 3 ramp, they were right at the average. BTW, the most mass produced economy cars have the best quality, while brands like Audi, BMW, Bentley, Porsche, Range Rover, anything made in lower numbers have far lower quality... Tesla videos get views, so what you come across is not representative of the average.

[@jeffpicken5057]

@@VoltLover00 Your 'lowest quality cars' are breaking the scales of safety testing organizations. Additionally, where are the true recalls coming from? Not Tesla, but OEMs - GM, Ford, Stalantis and on and on. A very high % of Tesla's 'recalls' are OTA software updates.

[@KP-xi4bj]

@@VoltLover00 Have owned my Model 3 since October 2023. No issues so far. All body panels line up, the gaps are smaller than my previous ICE car and no squeaks or rattles. So, what was that you were saying about, "lowest quality cars on sale"? LMFAO SMH

[@roxter299roxter7]

One of the most interesting AAH shows I’ve watched in a while. Tesla has shaken up the whole automotive industry. It was about time. The OEM’s had become lazy and complacent.

[@chrisheath2637]

Very important point. Legacy Auto want to improve by slow increments. Slow design changes, slow implementation. I've worked in manufacturing, and that makes sense. But with tech companies, things change faster, and applying AI and compute enables this. The key is, why not improve fast, rather than why ?

[@flubalubaful]

Let's see what experienced manufacturers do, I guarantee they do things that improve ten fold on what tesla has done. No stupid casting of such big parts, more innovation than tesla could ever dream off, they have been constrained with combustion engines, now they can think of things they wanted to do but couldn't. Tesla has been stagnant for a while apart from the stupid casting of such big parts.

[@TimKennedy1]

Great show! love when you have hardcore engineers like today and Sandy on

[@user-cw9em3mo3w]

Thanks AD and John McElroy for bringing back this Carsoft Engineer as a guest, maybe he and Sandy Munro can save the traditional Oems, that is if they listen and can change.but as he says "they are risk adverse", first some CEOs heads must roll! As

[@highlanderapparel]

Kindness is Always Free, The Highlander😊

[@user-cw9em3mo3w]

@@highlanderapparel The market can be ruthless and unforgiving!it's a dog eat dog out there The Chinese are playing for keeps,The Japanese giants will be in big trouble asthey have lost in the consumer Electronics to the S Korean chaehbols so will will the Automotive sector.

[@johnryan6003]

Bottle neck is always at the top. Legacy auto saw the Model S and ignored it. The ignored how far ahead of the roadster the S was. They could not imagine Tesla could keep up that rate of improvement in manufacturing. So, they gave up any chance they had to catch up. Legacy also did not realize what they were seeing in China. The Chinese believed what they saw in Giga Shanghai. And immediately began racing toward that. (And industrial espionage, too) Legacy means what is left after you are dead.

[@gnoxycat]

Not a single steam engine car maker survived the ICE revolution.

[@markgemmell3769]

Well said sir. Right on the money 100%

[@johnfruh]

It's worse than that. Not only did they ignore Tesla, they then laughed at them, then fought them and then Tesla won!

[@AlanFennell]

@@gnoxycathorses lose some value as well 🤔 breeding is just not what it used to be.

[@MaticTheProto]

blah blah blah.

[@boroqcat]

Never heard one person take so much time and in such exquisite, elaborate, and painstaking detail purposely answer no one’s questions as a supposed industry insider and expert. Literally felt Joe’s frustration through the screen at Matthew taking 5 minutes of words to very purposely ignore every question he asked.

[@alanlivingstone148]

Maybe he was just trying to be diplomatic and not say too bluntly that effectively the OEM's are screwed. The thing is when it was ICE cars back in the early 1900's it was the horses that lost their jobs but this time it's going to be the factory workers. In many ways that is very sad, but true. I am a high street retailer in the UK, internet shopping has left the traditional high streets shopping decimated, something similar will happen in the car industry. :(

[@boroqcat]

@@alanlivingstone148 yes: he was very diplomatically hiding behind “proprietary info/client confidentiality” when it suited him; as in any question that fell outside of his rehearsed/prepared comments/remarks. He could say Tesla has a 30% cost efficiency advantage “based on his analysis” but couldn’t, i.e. refused, to give a tangible clue as to where those efficiencies are in comparison to the traditional assembly process. If the most accomplished and distinguished industry experts have spent 200K hours modeling and simulating actionable intelligence to great detail why come on the show to say nothing more than what was said at Tesla’s ‘22 investor day? There was more actionable intelligence in the 3-4 slides flashed on the screen than in his pedantic, didactic, unrelated-tangent-prone monologues. And if his slides could illustrate weight savings, and put hard numbers to cost savings, what legitimate reason did he have for being so effusively evasive? None. TL:DR - he brought no value to the discussion and it was annoying to watch everyone else beg him to provide meaningful answers. It was a poorly executed promotional stunt/shill for his company’s research. Sandy Monroe has a KZbin channel dedicated to the same-at Cory Stuben’s behest-but Sandy provides colorful, insightful, and most importantly meaningful information every single time he’s in front of a camera. That’s how you market your research: not making vague allusions and saying “proprietary” at every turn.

[@dangrecu4034]

Got the same feeling throuout the video :-) especially on wasted investments (something Tesla certainly have on their hands)

[@JP-sw5ho]

Amazing podcast guys

[@firstbigbarney]

This is the best forum discussion ever, Mathew has the knowlege and facts not just opinions. Companies have ro move at light speed or be left in the dustbin...

[@philipheijnen]

Some very good comments. Challenges for legacy OEM is (1) unlearning things, (2) think like a phone manufacturer. You cannot reach the 25k EV using current methods. On top of that the upgraded electrical system replacing the loom and the component level ECUs , that enables the unboxing and the software driven vehicle, i.e. the electronics are a platform that allows modulation and upgrading of performance. Weight and efficiency cannot be compromised. One additional kg = 4$ of battery.

[@MaksimSSM]

Chinese 25k EV already at market 😉

[@philipheijnen]

Not in Europe. Of course there is the Dacia Spring for 20k€, but the challenge is to have reasonable range (=battery) for that price

[@jonbowes5999]

John in the case of Tesla they are currently building Model Y in different forms from half casings at each side at the back to full structural battery with front and rear giga castings. They are willing to move on AND at the same time sweat the old assets because they know the customer generally isn't interested in what is under the skin! Value function and form are king it could be made of fairy dust the customer generally doesn't know the difference! In the case of the old guard OEMs they won't manufacture the same car with different methods at the same time...

[@MartyAckerman310]

My response to gigacastings is usually along the lines that I think the jury's still out on whether gigacastings are indeed an overall advantage. Also to point out that the US automakers switched from body-on-frame to unibody in the 1970s.

[@jonbowes5999]

@@MartyAckerman310 in the case of Tesla their jury has already handed down it's verdict! Tesla has adopted giga catsings and is now continuing to the next level with the unboxed method clearly asserting that they are happy with giga castings. Other OEMs may well find it harder to make them work due to scale. They may make lots of vehicles however these are spread across a huge range of models invalidating the economies of scale that make giga casting pay.

[@1flash3571]

@@MartyAckerman310 Replacing hundreds, or even thousands of parts AND less welding, AND less human workforce isn't enough for you???? Reeeeeeally? How about cost savings, and weight reduction???? still not enough?????? Wow.......

[@EwanM11]

​@@MartyAckerman310one of the points made here was that gigacasting is a pre-requisite to the unboxed method as its otherwise impossible to align the large car pieces. There are always errors in parts joining and a part made from 10 joined parts won't align with another part made from 10 joined parts. You need to keep parts to a minimum to ensure accuracy while maintaining stiffness.

[@bojohansson1110]

@@EwanM11 Sorry but you are wrong about the accuracy part. In fact accuracy of the complete part (for example rear floor) is one of the drawbacks with gigacasting compared to build the rear floor from many different stamped sheet metal parts. When you build the rear floor from many sheet metal parts you use fixturing which allows you to compensate individiual part errors and get a better accuracy of the complete part (better than what casting can acheive). You can also change the dimension of the rear floor to compensate for systematical errors on neighbouring parts for example to optimize gaps and flush. This is very difficult with casting. Gigacasting has big advantages but there is also drawbacks and it is too early to say if this method will take over completely in the automotive industri or not.

[@nickmcconnell1291]

Face it, the OEMs in the US are moving too slow. They will collapse before they can change enough to survive.

[@jeffcarroll3831]

You might as well get ready for a China takeover since you obviously have such contempt for OEMs...

[@johnryan6003]

I am really really bummed about that. Sometimes people see the reality in front of them. I think Legacy only began to pay attention when the Y became the BEST SELLING CAR IN THE WORLD.

[@nickmcconnell1291]

@@johnryan6003 Yeah and then they called a meeting to determine when they would meet to talk about meeting to respond.

[@vancity2349]

Not just in the US...

[@michaeloreilly657]

Yes. Only Tesla and the Chinese will survive. Frightening!

[@AjFerguson13]

Best show in long time. I will rewatch several times and share. Top notch breakdown of the unboxed process

[@brilanto]

So you didn't follow Tesla's presentation or Tesla content channels for years?

[@joewilder]

Last version of The limiting factor talks about Thixomolded Magnesium and how it will probably replace gigacasted aluminum.

[@danharold3087]

@@anthonyxuereb792 Go watch the vids. That problem has been fixed with alloying.

[@joewilder]

Can be solved with small % alloy.@@anthonyxuereb792

[@flaviosalatino8192]

​​@@anthonyxuereb792 if you would have watched the video, you wouldn't have said this moronic sentence. It's the 1st video on the series: there are alloys that don't burn.

[@andyonions7864]

Which explains the millions of spontaneously combusting iPhones. Small amounts of dopants fix the problem.​@@anthonyxuereb792

[@JackLemp-tm8fg]

Didn’t the limiting factor in the second video say there are additives to magnesium that make it non-combustible.

[@tomcockcroft9394]

I guess brownfield sites will have to get rid of 85-90% of all equipment, I just don’t think legacy auto will do that. I think you have to get rid of 60% of equipment just to transition to evs as legacy auto mainly only make engines and just outsource everything else.

[@tedg1609]

How much flip-phone assembly equipment could Motorola or Nokia save when iPhones came out ?

[@brunosmith6925]

Think of all the factories that used to make VHS video player/recorders... or fax machines... or cathode ray TV sets... or cameras that use celluloid film... When a disruption is in process, the proverb "quick and the dead" springs to mind. Some companies simply cannot afford to change - usually because they are so heavily debt-geared to their existing processes and to trash it would sink the company anyway. Others see short term (how much profit next quarter) and will milk existing plant in order to squeeze out as much margin as possible (which they usually give to the top executives and shareholders, before scraping up what remains for future investment). Like it or not, traditional automakers in the USA, EU and Japan are most vulnerable. By 2030, probably 80% of new cars on sale will be Chinese.

[@geniegogo]

all this dying of companies and the eventual churn makes me think of laws and regulations... how there should be a natural way of removing them from the books. They need an expiration date. Just like any successful company who can't change they should accept that they're super profitable in their time and enjoy it while it lasts, but their time ends. There is no way out.

[@rexjamo]

Great conversation. To the uneducated auto fan - Tesla bad, Elon bad. To the real auto experts, all roads lead to Tesla, we need to copy them.

[@LionheartLivin]

I have noticed this trend🎉

[@CosmicSeeker69]

Except, EV adoption is tanking - bc of physics.

[@thelimitingfactor]

You guys rock!

[@stressless]

Great Show!

[@adrwong8]

I think the weight savings for these processes is under emphasized when talking process changes. It is so important to be efficient to maximize the battery range, not just $ savings in production method and capital costs. Who is going to buy the lesser range car at the same price point or same range but longer longer charging time due to larger battery like the Hummer EV? Efficiency drives sales.

[@kylekleman]

You are right that weight is key! Better efficiency, cost, sustainability, acceleration and vehicle handling dynamics!

[@gnoxycat]

And its done without using exotic materials. You just do it in less time.

[@ToneGuruLA]

"Will the OEM's survive?" ... answer: "I'm sorry but I cannot answer that" That response is answer enough. My guess is that GM, Ford and VW are unlikely to survive without taxpayer bailouts Detroit's bungling is getting expensive for US taxpayers. Last year Biden gifted the Detroit 3 around $27 Billion in grants and sweetheart loan deals. What did Mary Barra do with the taxpayers cash? She gifted it to herself and fellow GM shareholders in dividends and buybacks.

[@brilanto]

And UAW and dealerships..

[@Agnemons]

Wonder how many shares Biden and his cronies have in Detroit?

[@davidradtke160]

Where are you getting the billions gifted from, unless you mean EV incentives which Tesla benefits even more from.

[@wilfredvanvalkenburgh2874]

GM still owes from the '08 bailout, you know the one that Tesla didn't ask for and paid back, with a penalty for early repayment in 2 years. GM is the Taxpayer money grab.

[@haolsen3607]

Great video, it will be really interesting to follow the car industry ahead.

[@nickmcconnell1291]

So I guess it took this guy to make you believe Elon? He has preached exactly this for years now. Weight matters, efficiency matters and above all the pace of innovation matters most.

Shut it microbrain.

[@brunoheggli2888]

And the competition will do it much better in the longrun!

[@89bazoly]

@@brunoheggli2888Yes, they cannot make EVs profitably (not even the Chinese), or in high quantity, but a magic wand will help them do both. Even though they are toning back EVs, makes sense… Chinese are the only competition, maybe in the long term Hyundai-Kia

[@brunoheggli2888]

​@@89bazolyThats only realy happening in Tesla fanboys mind!

[@brunoheggli2888]

​@@89bazolyTesla is just a small shitty company who had the ev market for themself for some time and weasted the first mover advantage for shit like the Semi and the Cybertruck!Now Tesla has nothing to compeat and only 11 out of 100 sold evs globaly are Teslas!They could already have a modell 2 ready for sale but they are talking they will have it in 2 years!!!Thats way way to late!BYDs Thailand factory wil be ready in 3 month and they building factorys in Brazil Mexico and Hungary!

[@geniegogo]

amazing episode. John mentioned the "digital twin" which is exactly right. There is basically a manual for each VIN showing for example that this car has the spring clamp variant 12c in it... Oh yea.

[@SolvingTheMoneyProblem]

AWESOME discussion. LOVE these insights.

[@tedg1609]

The concern for old tech machines seems to be holding fossil car companies back. Those old machines became trash as soon as Tesla introduced the unboxed idea. The cave is a grave.

[@RCdiy]

Sunk cost is the worst reason not to do something. Not having liquidity because you just spent the money is different. Sunk cost is a mindset from MBAs. Look at Apple desktops. They have changed their system architecture 3 times.

[@peterfireflylund]

Actually 5: 68K, 32-bit PPC, 64-bit PPC, 32-bit x86, 64-bit x86… and then 64-bit ARM.

[@michaelmuller665]

Great podcast. Thank you very much!

[@Indecisive7337]

Excellent topic, many thanks for sharing.

[@ToneGuruLA]

What a stud! Great guest. Thank you.

[@thesadboxman]

At first I thought I was dumb, but then I realized that Matthew has the most roundabout way of explaining concepts. I can definitely tell he came from legacy auto. Wish he was a lot more straight forward.

[@canis9178]

Caresoft's provided graphics were excellent.

[@RayNLA]

So you mean to tell me that Mary isn’t really the leader?

[@NikMoline]

Fantastic discussion. It is great that manufacturers will save a lot of money and time in vehicle assembly, and hopefully that savings will result in lower vehicle costs for the customer. However, one important point that I’d like to see discussed is the cost to the customer in higher repair and especially insurance costs. We have already seen insurance costs skyrocket in the last few years, no doubt due to higher expected repair costs when an accident happens, because a much larger section of the vehicle has to be replaced for even a small accident. When what used to be a $4-5,000 fender and bumper cover with a paint blend is now a $15-$20,000 module/gigacasting replacement, insurance companies will just start totaling vehicles out, which means every accident is a guaranteed huge cost, and everyone’s insurance will be massively expensive. Speaking of that, it could have a huge negative impact on the auto body industry, too.

[@CosmicSeeker69]

And the automotive industry - coming regulations will destroy out of town shops.

[@cherryfineartframes5834]

Great show with a very insighful guest! The unboxed process was described years ago in a paper? Wow I did not know that.

[@danharold3087]

It is less important who came up with an idea. Putting them into production is where it is at.

[@kazedcat]

Shipbuilders uses the unboxed process they call it superstructures.

[@danharold3087]

@@kazedcat On water craft, the superstructure consists of the parts of the ship or a boat, including sailboats, fishing boats, passenger ships, and submarines, that project above her main deck.

[@jmbelarmin]

Chinese auto companies: "We only learn from companies who are better than you. Just talk to us about Tesla". -best take-away from this excellent conversation

[@jed2049]

Matthew is brilliant. Western car makers, not so much.

[@chris27gea58]

This was a stunning discussion. Matthew is undoubtedly correct when he says that for any automotive company shipping 20 million EVs annually the greater portion of those vehicles must invariably be inexpensive models. Now, as it happens, the longest vehicle production runs are indeed production runs of lower priced products. Doesn't Joe know that? Joe can concern himself with auto company profit margins but he would perform a more important service if he concerned himself with the quality of the vehicles made by those companies.That is what matters to drivers/vehicle buyers. Profit margins aren't generally decided by what a company thinks they can get away with but rather by competitive pressures. The efficiency of Tesla's manufacturing operations will ensure that the company accrues fatter margins/greater profits on vehicle sales. Indeed efficient automotive production operations return well deserved profits to an automaker - the profits accrue without putting the screws on consumers. So, Joe doesn't need to worry about any of these things. If he is concerned about the state of the auto industry and the viability of existing auto companies he should advocate for those companies to lift the efficiency of their manufacturing operations and as Matthew gently implies, perhaps they should commit to making the right cars using a new and better approach.

[@willlehrfeld457]

Matthew was awesome!

[@jayyocis8643]

Mini/BMW: MiniE has run on the same manufacturing lines. The body was the same. They took out the engine/trans and put motor/battery in the tunnels space. I owned (since sold) two ICE Countryman. The MiniE had lower range so-so performance. They didn't design EV ground up. They ended up with a MiniE which I won't want (range/performance). They could have made a new and better EV.

[@dgupta42]

Fascinating video. There's another impact of all these changes. The composition of the weight of a car by material is very different in the new forms of manufacturing. For example, I see very little steel in the GAME/Unboxed EV compared to a legacy ICE design. Does that imply momentous change coming up for automotive steel makers?

[@tb7367]

Best discussion about Tesla innovation and execution in a long time.

[@izerrandom12]

fascinating to see the broader picture. tesla may not take so much risk when innovating as there is a one-to-one knowledge transfer from spacex. chinese startups won't have that and may have to take much greater risk of failure.

[@danharold3087]

What is transferring from spaceX other than material science?

[@izerrandom12]

rocket science including thermo-dynamic systems@@danharold3087

[@SeanLynchXY]

Thanks!

[@chrisheath2637]

Interesting that when John asked some searching questions, Matthew backed off. But these are the questions we want answered ! John is too polite to push the issue. Still a great discussion about the future of the auto industry...

[@bardz0sz]

You need to make your own conclusion, mine are: Tesla + the Chinese will dominate. Govt bailouts will follow but the legacy OEMs will slowly perish

[@mihamlakar1335]

Great talk.

[@ultrastoat3298]

To be fair. We’ve been learning about all this for years from Monroe and Associates.

[@thx1138guy]

it's Munro & Associates

[@leelightfoot1627]

Volume is low, great with headphones, the closed captioning is great.

[@SoupLegion]

48:40 Hey my first car was a Geo Prism, too!... built in Fremont just like my Model 3 (and a buddy's first car, the Chevelle, too)

[@highlanderapparel]

Kindness is always free, The. Highlander

[@georgepelton5645]

Highlander? The new Model 2 is "project Highland." Some say it was named after Ford's Highland Park plant, site of world's first moving assembly line.

[@highlanderapparel]

@@georgepelton5645 we are from the Scotish Highlands, look at my pic😊🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[@EgilWar]

Very interesting discussion.

[@speciesofspaces]

A simplistic way to look at these modular ways of building is to literally liken it to building the scale model version. Fewer parts are used and yet the actual strength comes in having those fewer parts which runs counter to a lot of more traditional ways of building. Same can be said for using forged carbon and probably nanocellulose in the future. If the monolith can do it then why break it up into smaller facets in the first place. The point about the organizational challenges also seems real in the sense of the layout and history of the facility dictating the way the assembly lines functions but if questioning how the factory gets organized in the first place then other options seem easier to visualize etc. That's my impression at least.

[@jasoncampbell8741]

Great discussion. This is very important to me as i remember my immigrant mother working 2 jobs to maintain our household. Lots of disruption coming out way. Hope we as society are ready

[@normpeplow3813]

What a background of this physicist! I cannot wait to got his books.

[@mrtt9800]

Very niice and informative episode. 👍👍👍

[@jeffberwick]

How do you weld parts that are pre-painted? How is the car put together if not welded?

[@volentimeh]

You glue it together, like a plastic model kit (seriously though panel adhesives are crazy strong) Too bad if you want to repair it though, welcome to disposable cars.

[@celeron55]

1:01:20 - "Quality is a given today" - Very interesting viewpoint. This means that if you don't do quality, you're immediately out. The game is everything else.

[@courtneykading873]

Evolution is important. Tear down is needed. We don’t want to get in the habit of “traditions” as you say. Tradition might not be what’s best. But strength, efficiency, America of course, but also the world … that’s what’s important.

[@LAURABOHDAN]

Tesla’s pace of innovation produces constant improvements in products but a nightmare for servicing to keep pace with training and supply lines. That is my non-expert observation. Love Laura

[@satienthedthong843]

Totally agree! After sales services e.g., adhoc maintenance of the hardware, bodyshop , etc is the real challenges of Tesla. There are a lot of complaints from Tesla users in Thailand right now.

[@mikefucito6030]

Very interesting.

[@justinmartin8637]

"I can't answer these kind of questions because of the reports we sell." That's ok, we'll ask Sandy, he will tell us.

[@MichaelHBallard]

So interesting

[@johnryan6003]

Aloha. Didn’t hear about software. The running of a Tesla is all about the software and they do it wicked good. People talk about infotainment software and that is important because it is by far the thing the passages engage most. People worry Tesla does not Apple or Android interface. But the most important software is car management ( battery, stearin, engines, braking etc) and safety. Tesla will offer an Apple or Android app on their screen, soon, I think. For infotainment, email , contacts, history etc. It not for car management. Basically run the phone on the car but not run the car on the phone.

[@mark-ge8dr]

Tesla mentioned the unboxing process far too early and the Chinese manufacturers are already on their way to implementing to it with help from European engineers. Tesla should have kept it quiet and revealed the car and build process at the same time. The next big leap will of course be humanoid robots for final assembly but that’s no big secret.

[@cartermiller2705]

What makes the unbox possible is the patented 48v Wiring System Architecture. @39:55 the sharing of this w Ford, etc. is mentioned. But I would bet this was NOT a giveaway, but rather, an offer to license the Tesla IP. This will only come out in future if/when oem like Ford, maybe BYD, or other oem takes the offer. The use of stainless for the body also helps unbox, as they get away from the paint shop, and instead just go to post assembly wrapping, for which, there are infinite options vs paint for any model. If/when Tesla develops a thinner stainless that can be bent in a more curvy way, that will be great. In the mean time, I would go for a Model2 with boxy, thin stainless any day. Just wrap it like lots of people are doing with Cybertruck. Here is that 2018 Wiring System Architecture patent: image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/11260809

[@raymondcanessa7208]

We need to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the ICE

[@TeslaRon]

Most legacy OEMs have unused capacity and they will have more as we go. They could take an idle plant and convert it.

[@ultrastoat3298]

25:47 the saying is if you shoot for the moon and miss at least you end up in the stars.

[@sachung]

The talkers don’t make cars and they can’t! 😂😂😂

[@jcfallows]

Workers & managers don't like change! I've just retired from a textile manufacturing company it was the same story of negativity, obstruction, and complete unwillingness to learn, to advance to serve the customer who is King! They only look at self interest and have got to comfy with the little knowledge they know. Basically laziness rules. But the old saying still works in that there are no bad workers only bad managers! Any industry standing still is actually going backwards! Keep moving forwards and you keep satisfying the reason why you have a job, which is to satisfy customer demand.

[@OnigoroshiZero]

When asking if the legacy auto can catch up to Tesla, it's the same as asking if a crippled old man can catch up to peak Usain Bolt in a 100m race in which Bolt has a 50m head start...

[@wilfredvanvalkenburgh2874]

So there is a chance? :)

[@TheRosebudz]

maybe the oems should just stay in their ice lane!

[@jkimo1178]

Plus.... the Chinese gov't provides a safety net for these companies to makes these changes.

[@johnryan6003]

Biden is throwing all the help he possibly can to underwrite battery, chip, charging infrastructure. So far, Legacy do not seem to be getting much of a slice of that. Oh, and legacy did not see the need for charging network. Now they will be sending more $ to Tesla through the profit Tesla will make charging more cars. Any ther profit stream for Tesla.

[@lumtavon1952]

And the US government gives huge subsidies as well. Only later as trump only wanted to keep coal and oil a life!!!! Tesla did not need any subsidy and is hugely profitable!!! Government Motors deserve to go bankrupt as even now they do a stock buyback

[@michaelmuller665]

Other governments could do this too, if they wanted.

[@elemenop718]

what happened in 2008?

[@davidheinzmann4403]

Still looking at a model Y . Hard to give up my Prius prime right now

[@tonespeaks]

@davidheinzmann4403 Don't rush, Juniper Model Y will rule them all. There are other great EVs out there and charging/range anxiety is a myth if you know what you are doing.

[@tonespeaks]

@@eugeniustheodidactus8890 On the other hand, Tesla will be lowering prices of current Model Y to get them out the door, so if price is an issue, I would buy discounted new, then more expensive brand new. This is always the dilemma.

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

According to NTSB.... data shows that *hybrids are 14,000% more likely to catch fire than any Tesla EV.* ( 140x ! ) _I had wanted a refresh prius prime, but gave up and bought a model y._

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

@@tonespeaks BINGO!

[@BTC_Minarchist]

Curious...Have you driven a Model Y/3?

[@DaBooster]

This guy assuming Tesla targeting 2 million units per factory. In reality, Tesla probably targeting 5 million units per factory.

[@KHRON3434]

I am not an engineer, but i think that some people still don't understand the advantages of casting big parts of an auto body. It's not just about the manufacturing speed. Having a high pressure die-cast front end increases precision, durability and stiffness. Cars are sold because customers get convinced that a certain car is worth thier money. I certainly wouldn't mind a giga casting in my car knowing what SORB tests do to old cars. Also aluminum adds to the exotic appeal of a modern car in a sea of stamped steel cans. I watched Sandy's videos, but stopped after he tried to push Nikola as a solid company only because he invested in it (I assume)... These discussions tend to turn into religious debates

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

UAW is gonna get their wakeup call very soon when the first wave of *HUMANOID ROBOT CONTRACTS* start this year in the auto industry. BWM already has chosen FIGURE robotics for their South Carolina plant. I'd shocked if Tesla doesn't announce at least one OEM robot contract this month.

[@adrwong8]

Tesla will not announce any OEM robot contract this month since they do not need to 'partner' for funding. They will continue to push on toward robotic evolution and design until the product is production ready and then roll out hundreds of thousands of units. FIGURE robotics will not be ready to produce in volume. There is a demand in the market place for millions of robots per year, all robotics companies will sell out whatever they can produce. TAM is in the trillions.

[@FlipBoxStudio]

UAW leaders/execs making big moves ahead of the robot revolution. They likely see the writing on the wall and they will lobby heavily to keep current jobs away from robots for as long as possible. They will campaign and sue companies adopting robot labor in order to protect their UAW profits. It’ll be at least another year or two before we see the first factory robots being fully integrated. Mass adoption will depend on politics and regulations. Just like it is for EV adoption.

[@davidmenasco5743]

I'm no robotics expert, but based on what seems pretty apparent, I'd expect these robots to advance in baby steps. They will be limited to certain tasks, and very gradually their workload will expand. I would not expect high volume production to be needed for over a decade. I wouldn't expect any company to be able to use more than a half dozen on any given production line for the foreseeable future.

[@nibotkram7743]

The question to ask is, can the Legacies be saved? How do they get there?

[@fredhearty1762]

'The leader is undoubtedly Tesla'... and they are accelerating away from traditional automakers. Legacy auto is giong to need a bigger telescope.

[@user-cw9em3mo3w]

OEMs likè VW o4 Detroit 2 are in a dilema,throw out old tooling and old way of building cars/ trucks or survive by making wholesale change,what a world we ljve in!

[@jeffcarroll3831]

Or they don't, until everyone is willing to go to EVs 🤷

[@AllanSustainabilityFan]

@@jeffcarroll3831 By then it would be too late for them. Kodak tried that and failed miserably. History is littered with examples of players that played the waiting game and got left in the dust.

[@danharold3087]

​@@AllanSustainabilityFan Kodak was a key participant and contributor to the creation of digital photography as we know it, They were blindsided by cheap production from japan.

[@AllanSustainabilityFan]

@@danharold3087 They sat on the product, hoping they could delay the shift from their bread and butter to digital tech, then rising players swept in and Kodak got left behind before they could react. "Kodak invented the digital camera - then killed it. Why innovation often fails" "The reactionary antibodies within Kodak’s leadership rejected the digital camera, fearing it would cannibalise existing business. As Sasson later told the New York Times, “it was filmless photography, so management’s reaction was, ‘that’s cute - but don’t tell anyone about it.’”" "Kodak’s rivals seized the opportunity, leaving the incumbent flailing in pursuit of patent royalties. Sasson’s Kodak digital camera patent expired in 2007. Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012."

[@rinconchuck]

Kodak was not blindsided by cheap production from Japan. They licensed digital technology to the Japanese companies and later thought they could just have those same Japanese companies build cameras for them. Then when digital had totally destroyed their business model, Kodak had to sell all their patients to the very companies that they had licensed! Kodak refused to develope digital when they could have been the KINGS of digital because film, photo paper and chemicals were just to profitable. Kodak went from about 165,000 US employees to the current approximately 4000! Cheaper manufacturers were not the reason Kodak failed, Kodak failed for failing to change.

[@Bryanbkk]

He can extrapolate the exact cost of a future Tesla EV, but he cannot extrapolate whether legacy OEM will continue to exist? Naw, he’s run the numbers he knows, and he’s getting while they getting is good. 🎉

[@gnoxycat]

Some of these future headstones are still paying for his expertise.

[@ed808]

20 million “stretch goal”. Everyone thought that 500k was a stretch goal too…

[@NewCastleIndiana]

Great conversation, but for a different channel. I miss old AAH, with dogs, and no holds barred chatter.

[@darwinboor1300]

What good is six sigma if it relegates you to 12V architecture, non-unified distributed electronics, unnecessary fasteners, attachments, and welds and limits you outdated design and production principles.

[@michaelmuller665]

Elon put all Production robots out of the factory in production hell. OEMs should do the same.

[@roryscottbrown]

When comparing different auto making in different countries, the cost in North America looses because of currency wars and government subsidies.

[@rwhirsch]

" I can't comment on this .....but Legacy automotive is effed"

[@desobrien3827]

Sandy Monroe is way ahead of this guy! Not to mention Sandy teaches & entertains.

[@CKPill]

I hope and pray they never catch up, insuring vehicles would be eye watering if they did. It is not saving money if you just move the cost. The number of totaled Teslas for minor damage is ludicrous

[@BjorckBengt]

Tesla has reported that Giga castings reduce cost of repair, not increase as some in the comments claimed. If the boxed Gen 3 car is possible to unbox again, maybe it is possible to replace a complete side or rear? Maybe structural adhesives is great but would limit that possibility?

[@Agnemons]

Been proved by third parties that the castings actually make it cheaper to repair.

[@peteregan3862]

Munro and Associates will be in trouble if they don't get themselves huge x-ray machines as well.

[@gnoxycat]

With a CT you could do 3rd reconstruction without even tearing the car down.

[@ontheroadfromnowtilyou]

I believe that there will be hundreds if not thousands of automobile brands. In a manner of speaking this guy being grilled is offering to become your one stop shop to guide you in the formulation of a factory line for relatively simple ($25k) electric cars. This is the man, if you want to be a new American manufacturer of electric cars. He is a one-man China. Definitely not a friend of labor, because if you make car this way you don't need that many people.

[@fredhearty1762]

Kodak had lots of sunk cost manufacturing facilities... for film. Where are they now?

[@nickfosterxx]

Fascinating and revealing conversation, thank you all. But imho the main engineering issue is not about EVs or even manufacturing EVs per se. It's about car dependency and city planning. Cities are for people, not cars. The best car is no need for a car. The average car journey is short. Most car journeys are very short. And have one occupant. Tesla is the Apple of EVs - over qualified and over priced. Simply unnecessary to take a 2-ton car to get a bag of oranges or take Jimmy to school. Everyday small EVs are already here from eg BYDor even European OEMs. A week's worth of range for less than half the price of a Tesla. The world can't afford to go the US route, we don't have the time or the resources. Look to Europe or China, way ahead of you. And if you want to go intercity, sure use a specially long range car, or fgs join the human race and build rail.

[@rp9674]

Chinese mfgrs building plants in USA next? GM & Ford should create insulated independant startup type mfgrs w long term commitment .