Trader Positioning is the Best Discounting Mechanism in the Markets

[@petermusinsky4524]

I make 3%, I loose 1.5%, I make 3.7% and I loose 2%, I make 7.4% and I loose 2.5%... all thanks to Jason 👍

[@RoTelnCheese]

Positioning positioning positioning. My favourite contrarian trader. Love it 😊

[@Money-Fast-Plan-a]

Your video is an everlasting wellspring of motivation! - "Every setback holds a valuable lesson."

[@TheJermiester]

I love the point spread analogy

[@bobbobertson7568]

Love it. I think I am turning the corner, and this was a barrier. Stubbornly sticking to some "thesis" or what "should" be, as opposed to just trying to win.

[@bibbidi_bobbidi_bacons]

Thanks Jason

[@TolgaYaman-vn4zy]

Amazingly valuable info(and it is free) as always

[@robertlu5117]

Well said. This is what real tradsr is, thinking about process

[@GentlemansRelish1000]

awesome insight and thank you Mr Shapiro

[@dshephardcomposer]

Jason's been hammering home this message for as long as I can remember since he started making videos on KZbin. However, something about this specific video just seems to nail the essence of this lesson better than ever. The only thing I'm left to wonder is... now that everyone knows this lesson about positioning, and it, too, is getting "discounted" in, so to speak, does it still have an edge? Lol. I'm being snarky, of course, but I suspect it does still have an edge b/c humans will probably continue to behave in the same patterns as always, despite this sage and well shared advice from Jason.

[@lbafs1530]

Thats the irony even when the truth is being clearly presented to them in their face the vast majority will still not accept or apply it.

[@Alem_Mehari]

For it to lose its edge participants would have to instantaneously and continuously take new information into account. The majority can never catch up or the game ceases!

[@gcg8187]

@@Alem_Mehari exactly. even institutions cannot instantaneously apply this because of supply and demand on the price

[@alexlimion2624]

Thanks for the video. Incidentally, tomorrow at 1:45pm BOC governor Tiff Macklem is speaking to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce about employment, inflation and such

[@bagfitted1380]

Great points

[@stevosworld4896]

Great insights on what discounting in the Market means.

[@ridzuanali1919]

Thank you, JS. Stay safe. God bless.

[@baffinsansterre]

"The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when a person's lack of knowledge and skill in a certain area causes them to overestimate their own competence. By contrast, this effect also drives those who excel in a given area to think the task is simple for everyone, leading them to underestimate their abilities."

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

Excellent explanation; for me it's a different paradigm of thinking and makes sense. Thank you.

[@pvpnkittens]

I love your view on markets. Thanks Jason

[@fedcba810]

Noise or Voice, you are RIGHT!!

[@denijane89]

Great video, Jason! And it makes sense to measure discounting somehow, we all knew for example that the german economy should be weak because of the war, instead DAX sky-rocketed because of the weapons industry (and who knows what else). So yeah, being right means nothing and being wrong is really painful.

[@nickparsons5369]

Nicely said.

[@MrNice2526]

Thank you

[@DuckyEggwood]

Great vid!

[@yuanqiu3649]

Great video. Thanks.

[@michaelstock9351]

Another awesome video

[@susanwardzinski3146]

Thanks Jason very good

[@annKLR]

Good advice

[@lachlanrutherford8833]

awesome advice again

[@Twjc12]

Fantastic

[@timedowntube]

Love it. 🐐

[@ronlobo707]

Love it, thanks Jaosn!

[@Chaz-pm1jm]

Awesome video

[@TanTan_7]

My favorite KZbinr is posting!!!

[@baldylocks6534]

Hear hear! The subtitles could use a bit of improvement but man do I love Jason's work.

[@maxgreen4]

Jason Shapiro - always a breath of fresh air

[@crowdedmarketreport]

happy to hear feedback. Let us know how to improve the subtitles.

[@animaldonut]

@@crowdedmarketreportI liked this video, especially the point spread analogy. The Nvidia trade example too where people thought everything was priced in at $200, $300, $600, etc. Somebody mentioned the subtitles needing work. I think they meant the misspellings. For example, at 4:03 you said “the Canadian dollar” and the text said “the Canadian gallery.” It’s no big deal, but that’s what they probably meant. What video recording software do you use? What creates the subtitles? Keep up the great work. Learned of you in “Unknown Market Wizards.”

[@padraigdevitt8755]

Legend 🙌

[@7minutosconlabiblia145]

Thanks!

[@chrisbackshell2464]

4:50 is the key to active trading right there. :)

[@Alexrmacleod]

master class

[@incacoca]

What is the indicator used in the video to show positioning? Thanks in advance.

[@ArthurBurn-z4v]

What is the best instrument to measure positoining?! Thanks

[@sunflowerhk100]

What indicators or charts can i use to look at positioning?

[@rddchr]

another great post Jason. you started working on that book of yours??

[@feengringers]

Loved this vid. What do you use to check the how crowded a trade is please Jason? Thanks, best vid so far!

[@Jay-jd1bi]

COT data

[@feengringers]

@@Jay-jd1bi thank you 🙂

[@raays1013]

Is there a specific indicator / place you like to go for checking positioning? I see you're on trading view.. wondering if maybe TOS has a similar indicator. Thanks Jason! Love this channel

[@Jay-jd1bi]

COT charts

[@bammylarsen1260]

I've noticed the extreme long positioning of the commercial traders in Canadian dollar two weeks ago i.e COT index is 100% for CAD. Last week saw it rally strongly. Same thing with Swiss franc - COT index 92%. The fundamental analysis of CHF (ranked 6th) is showing it to be weaker than CAD (ranked 4th) when you compare it with other G8 currencies. Since I have created tools for the COT analysis and fundamental analysis that are both objective and fairly accurate, I found they sometimes conflict with each other. I'm trying to find a balance and confluence between the two approaches to bias.

[@eduardtarniceriu102]

The fundamental analysis of CHF (ranked 6th) where do you check that ? What platform ? Or if you do it yourself , based on what you do the fundamental analysis ranking ?

[@bammylarsen1260]

@@eduardtarniceriu102 Country Ranking Interest Rate USD 1 5.5 EUR 7 4.25 JPY 8 0.1 GBP 4 5.25 CAD 4 4.75 AUD 2 4.35 CHF 6 1.5 NZD 3 5.5

[@bammylarsen1260]

@@eduardtarniceriu102 This is the fundamental analysis result done on G8 currencies using 12 important macro-economic drivers.

[@cryptoricardo]

''I was wrong about the market but I was right about the underlying fundamental'' Peter Schiff has been saying this for years now. What saddens me is that when he will finally be right (broken clock) he will go on a victory lap and people will praise him....

[@eduardtarniceriu102]

This on the chart is the Canadian Dollar Index ? What indicator is that ? Thank you

[@MrNice2526]

I waana make dosh, Jase!

[@steveholloway7565]

Thanks for your insights. A couple of random thoughts: 1/ I don't believe markets discount anything other than narratives. Markets very frequently cannot see what's in front of their nose - witness 2007, 2020, and (hopefully I'm wrong on this) the conflagrations that now seem likely to unfold in either or both Europe and the Middle East in the coming weeks. If the blindingly obvious isn't in the current narrative, then it won't be in the price. 2/ I've been trading FX since the 1970s and can honestly say that the advent of liquid futures markets and their associated positioning info has had no impact on me at all - they are simply too small to matter more than very briefly relative to spot and forwards/swap positioning.

[@trickyboi5787]

Nice. What's the indicator to show positioning?

[@Chaz-pm1jm]

Not sure what he’s using but you can Google fx sentiment. Worst case scenario can find sentiment data to copy and paste to your charts

[@Jay-jd1bi]

Commitment of Traders report

[@donaldk4867]

Can you be more specific on the full name of the indicator along with the author on Tradingview? There are quite a few COT report indicators on Tradingview. Thanks!

[@Jay-jd1bi]

@@donaldk4867 this particular indicator was developed by crowded market report and is available I believe to subscribers.

[@giovannig4369]

Agreed, I also would like to know the specific name/author of the indicator. Thanks

[@seankhrazmi2712]

thanks Jason..is there a way to play the canadian dollar thru a stock or an ETF,,thank you

[@crowdedmarketreport]

I believe FXC is the ETF.

[@seankhrazmi2712]

@@crowdedmarketreport thanks Jason..

[@June-z5y]

wow thank you for the insight! although I knew in theory of probability, that you only take bets based on asymmetry risk reward, I didn't know how to apply it on daily trading. Thanks. BTW, which indicator do you use to see how many shorts are positioned?

[@benruggiano6306]

Where do you look for those indicators? TY

[@crowdedmarketreport]

We developed these indicators on TradingView for our members. They are based on CFTC data.

[@stephenwalker7221]

@@crowdedmarketreport is this indicator useful for tech stocks/crypto? Or not so much?

[@crowdedmarketreport]

The indicator is available for Futures markets which includes the Nasdaq (tech stocks), Bitcoin and Ethereum. I think it is very useful.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

To clarify, it is not available for individual stocks. Only Futures markets.

[@benruggiano6306]

@@crowdedmarketreport Hmmm, That's excellent. I only trade the Q's via common and option strategies. . I'll take a look.

[@gringoloco8576]

Is this positioning chart on think or swim?

[@crowdedmarketreport]

No. This is on TradingView. We developed the indicators for CMR members.

[@shirinpraver220]

To dear dear mr.shapira. You dont tell us,how the peaple wich ,dont residence of u.s.a.can fet to you.and have all the details. God blesses.and thanks.

[@Jay-jd1bi]

just go to the website linked above

[@darioconstain]

Whats the positioning and sentiment on Bitcoin and crypto right now???

[@rayisonit]

Curious if you are aware that sports betting markets aren’t efficient, even though people just assert this. Betting sites ban players that systematically outperform and have bet limits to deter someone with an edge. Levitt has an econ paper that tries to estimate if the house really just takes the vig and they don’t… his estimates were something like betting houses bet against the “public” around 70-80% of the time; meaning they are overweight one side. The super bowl or some events may be 50/50, but most aren’t given the spread.

[@tonylopetrone9828]

Do you mean like the politicians do?? Regarding insider information.

[@BigWickTraders]

Came here to get yelled at

[@lukew4354]

👍👍

[@waddwadwa]

CAD trade sucks, tbills outperforming that. And with the us losing control over oil i wouldn't want to be short dollar

[@DannyHensloweGooglePlus]

So everyone predicted wrong that a recession was coming and markets have ripped ever since, now everyone thinks no recession and markets will rip higher also. In other words, there is never downside risk.

[@dr7157]

...or you could just use EW and ignore the noise

[@Firstmajortomlikestoticker]

help me please

[@josipprgomet994]

1st

[@cameronjohn604]

If I could short the current Canadian government I would. The pendulum always swings both ways.

[@dr7157]

listening to analysts is a great way to lose money

[@Jay-jd1bi]

not when you fade them

[@ptupy]

Everyone repeats this nonsense. If you made money, you were right