David Rosenberg: Don't Believe The Hype! This Economy Is A Dead Man Walking

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According to today's headlines, it's looking increasingly likely that the economy may dodge a recession. The calls for a "soft landing" are turning into ones of "no landing at all"
The same headlines tell us the markets are in great shape and will be powered higher from here by a new AI-driven profitability boom.
But according to today's guest, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research, the headlines are selling a false narrative.
By his measure, the recession is already arriving, deflation not inflation is the bigger threat & the current market AI frenzy is a classic stock mania that will end the way all bubbles do.
Follow David at rosenbergresearch.com/
Or on Twitter @econguyrosie
TIMSTAMPS
0:00 Adam’s Intro
1:48 David’s current assessment of the global economy
7:24 What about service sector Inflation?
12:12 Jobs data on non farm payrolls.
14:38 What’s going on with the workweek?
19:36 The fed stopped tightening in 2006.
25:51 The fed’s credibility under attack.
28:31 Job openings vs. unemployment.
34:37 The recession may already be starting.
39:58 Where's the recession in the consumer?
42:27 What’s telling you about the economy?
48:31 What’s driving the growth of the Japanese market?
54:33 Where should you be long in Japan?
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#recessionstockmarket #inflationrecession #stockmarketcrash
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

[@dw566]

I'm in Mr. Rosenberg's camp. A very compelling data based view of current and future markets. Great guest and great interview Adam!

[@HaveANiceDay108]

One of only a few who is willing to call out the hubris and idiocy of the Fed. To be married to the most lagging of all indicators,the CPI, while ignoring leading indicators, has got to be the epitome of hubris and stupidity.

[@udarpavarota396]

I tend to agree.

[@AikiBudo22]

@@HaveANiceDay108 Hubris, yes. Stupidity, no. They're just flat-out lying to us and most will believe it.

[@jamesdillworth6293]

​@@HaveANiceDay108by u CT:

[@SwissMovement]

Oh man. I love this guy. What a sharp intelligent well spoken gentleman. Please bring him back again. Well done both of you.

[@88peyote]

Adam I love the background. You should record with it more often! Rosenberg always rocks! Thanks

[@delmonicofarquhar9893]

I've followed Rosenberg for a long time and consider him the single most credible economist. Ignore his views at your own peril.

[@tomdonovan4842]

Insightful interview well done

[@RetiredSignDude]

Rosenberg is always a good listen

[@miguelleiva897]

Really enjoyed that interview.

[@kyle-ri5mz]

remember the way they calculate CPI changed entering 2023.. so all the CPI numbers do not correlate to anything from before.

[@AhLaDad90]

Thank you for having such smart guess on your show.👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

[@carrieschumacher4]

Thank you David! I am a huge fan!

[@bretgreen5314]

Great; thank you Adam and David

[@padraigdevitt8755]

Enjoyed that Adam thanks 🙏

[@Mark-el8sb]

Love this guest!

[@mercinak655]

wow, great guest and very articulate, very common sense content. Thanks Adam

[@derekseifert7]

41:30 - "consumer transitioning towards frugality." David, I've been transitioned towards frugality since late 2007. Graduated university in 2009. When will I ever see an economy where I can throw caution to the wind and enjoy myself? Probably never.

[@JoeBlow-nh7mp]

One of my friends,/coworkers, would pretty much buy what ever he wanted. He used to buy the best PC's and the newest Iphone's, brand new cars. I used to ask him, aren't you worried about your credit and how much money you spend? he replied to me... "there's nothing a good bankruptcy won't fix". lol, some people don't give a shit.

[@derekseifert7]

@@JoeBlow-nh7mp - yeah, "you can't take it with you" is a mindset that has been instilled in this country for 2-3 generations now to support the consumer economy. It's why we no longer have prudent saver families joining the ranks of the "old money." They leave nothing to their kids because they spent it all, or worse, became a burden late in life further eroding family prosperity. There's a special place in hell for these selfish people.

[@theonlyconstantischange123]

​@@JoeBlow-nh7mpthis is definitely the common mindset. Saving with controlled spending isn't the baseline behavior. The baseline behavior is to fill up a monthly budget of financed goods. Why live any other way? What, are u gonna wait forever to live? (Sarcasm)

[@kzen848]

Just wait until people are given free homes in the next crash.

[@marksmith351]

Wow! Great interview!!

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Wow certainly some great points thank you guys fantastic discussion based from genuine knowledge and experience. Your library is impressive in your back up studio Adam no wonder you are so smart and humble.

[@Ron-py7rt]

I like a guy who puts a little Tobasco in his morning eggs. When you know the economy, you know.

[@markwalmsley5741]

Great interview

[@external9544]

This is your best guest. Get him back on.

[@celestialfix]

Spot on analysis.

[@tomcoughlan2532]

Very good interview. Interesting take on Japan .

[@mullerk2]

Excellent guest.

[@tjvon968]

Living down here in the real economy I can tell you I’m not seeing much disinflation. Insurance, taxes, general food costs are still up on my side.

[@insomniactravels6185]

Rosie is another gem that ensures this channel stays "relevant". Keep up the good (and hard) work, Adam!

[@torefredriksen7962]

this was outstanding

[@ddprepper5227]

Excellent report

[@robertratz5305]

What a great guest. Thank you for bringing him on.

[@sewnsew6770]

So many awesome guests

[@onthemoney8356]

Wallstreet knows people are waiting. Which means Wallstreet will make people wait until they realize they shouldn't have at all. Welcome to Wallstreet!

[@scotthodor4292]

Much respect to David to believing in his process and being willing to confidently go against the grain.

[@jackiechai9615]

Thank u thank u thank u 🙏

[@LPJCP]

Rosenberg suggests Greenspan should be considered in the same light as Volker; utter nonsense! The former introduced the soft money platform to supplant the hard money of the latter which has led us to the mess we're in now.

[@Aries61]

I like the bookcase background!!!

[@mattanderson6672]

Awesome interview! Thanks for having David on Thanks guys!

[@calvinhancock7844]

The audio sounds better in your library

[@TradeSpeakeasy]

This background is MUCH nicer!

[@petersheenan4482]

He can say what he wants, but for me my rent, gas, food, medical, and entertainment costs have skyrocketed these last two years.

[@scottmoering9810]

agreed! hes delusional

[@brianoleson9224]

@@scottmoering9810 hes lying about inflation right now its at-least 9% it could be 11% and at its peak it was a few percent higher then the 1970s on paper you wont find that cause the goverment changed how its measured simply because we are more evil today then the grove y 1970s go figure. i try to give the benifit of the doubt on these interviews but its hard to stomach the guy when you know off camera he is concerned . some of the oldest Americans today that were born in the 1930s havent seen an environment like we have had the last few years

[@scottmoering9810]

@brianoleson9224 exactly Brian!!

[@SunofYork]

At least you aren't living in a Fascist, White Supremacist, christian nationalism fog, and in a county with it's own Presidential protection force with unlimited powers.... (SchutzStaffel)..... Watch this space

[@howardglenmartinez4473]

I had to comment again on Mr. Rosenburg's appearance on your show. I'm going to nickname him, The Hype Terminator. Let me tell you something, where I live, I see many "Dead Man" businesses throughout the city. You can tell they are dead because they have no customers. And to add to all this, we have thousands living on the streets, thousands drowning their sorrows with drugs in their homes, and those who are in their right mind scared shitless. Now is the time to stock and arm and prepare for the Great Depression Part II.

[@wongsongs3861]

Mr. Rosenberg is probably THE most interesting and informative (in my opinion and according to my own fiscal considerations) guest you have ever had on recently! The Fed needs to use real, aggregate (not cherry picked categories) and LEADING DATA to make their decisions.

[@giantessmaria]

rents in my area are up almost 40% in 3 years! 4 bedroom 2 bath, that rented for $3500 is now $4,800! inflation may not be growing as fast, but the damage has been done and that won't change. The new normal will work its way through the population and put us in a homelessness crisis like the 1930's!

[@petersheenan4482]

It's sad to say, but there are a lot of "new" homeless cropping up in my nice neighborhood. (and they aren't proud any more).

[@richardpeterson6911]

An extremely insightful and somewhat unique analysis of economic/financial conditions. Lots of valuable information, focusing on what are correct economic indicators--as opposed to what data the Fed and many investors are utilizing.

[@miketannenbaum8909]

Brilliant.

[@Jordanehart]

Great commentary.

[@neil5872]

Consensus in summer '08 may be relevant, interesting point from DR and the point about troubles and cutting in '01 before 9/11 is also a good one.

[@brandonsmith6965]

lovin' this new version of ranty rosenberg

[@danielwood452]

Prescient 👏

[@BatmanBoss]

Wealthion ❤

[@jonathanlee5185]

If there's a US recession -- and the UK and Germany are pretty much in one already -- won't the global downturn have a negative impact on Japanese investments too?

[@ivancho5854]

Yes, absolutely. The current optimistic view of Japan will nosedive if the US markets crash. Japan is an export economy. If no one is buying because of global downturn then what direction must Japanese equities go? Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride. Good luck. 👍

[@tonylochner4730]

Yes sometimes all day waiting for paint to dry!!! Everyday lately!!!

[@DBEdwards]

Adam keep the new background. It flatters you.

[@sfm9]

Great Video & good Ideas. I started a equity plan on a IShares MSCI Japan ETF.

[@liveslowsailfastonlanier1374]

Listening to the talk about residential rents coming down, I am struggling with the numbers. Given the fact that investors have to cover amortization and interest on financing, how can rents go down? Cost to build residential units may have flattened out but the financing cost are just beginning to come up to current refinancing rates. Just by the numbers to amortize initial building cost in 25 years makes the Niall cost 4% of building cost. This is very much outpaces by interest rates that now may be between 5% and 10% of loan value, depending on who is borrowing.

[@dope1725]

@live chat. Good team work 🤣☺️🙋

[@michaeldonnellan8630]

And the truth shall set you free, after the crash, excellent briefing .

[@ke9406]

Finally! David Rosenberg! Wealthion keeps getting better and better

[@526Nitin]

Very very interesting tidbits Sir 👏😎👍🙏🥵

[@chrisbytwerk3712]

What's a good and trustworthy site for PPI measures?

[@gustavodiaz4689]

Probably one of the best speakers you had in your show

[@mayurpatel2257]

He is amazing.. macro data he talks about is so inline to understand where we r going

[@user-kq3jd8wk2w]

Not sure about hotels reducing rates as stated. We just in North Platte Nebraska, middle of nowhere and they still wanted $175 for a king room...and other motels were well over $100/night....in Nebraska!!

[@bmmd2332]

Hanke called the 9 handle.

[@Sola_Scriptura_1.618]

I have never known an economist to be so wrong, so many times on so many fronts, than David Rosenberg. David makes Paul Krugman look good!

[@alexi2460]

Very realistic and honest

[@web3tel]

David is brilliant and entertaining . Thank you for such a wonderful guest and education.

[@thehawktrader.lengua]

a great lesson of macroeconomics ! thank you

[@ptupy]

Switching to cheaper products is a good idea. Used to buy only premium brands before but now shifted to store brands for some products (toilet paper, trash bags, etc.), and they are of pretty much the same quality. Saving tons of money

[@dragodragonrider1840]

I really enjoyed today’s interview 👍🏻 Dave’s wealth of knowledge is impressive 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[@ciarancoyne9104]

Thanks a mill boys 🙏🏻

[@MattMatusiak]

There's still a mid day line of cars at the Starbucks Drive Thru.

[@fractalart8352]

Very valuable indeed! Rarely does a 1 hour podcast fly by as quickly

[@MacroLoco]

44:11 - 45:00 🤌 Well said

[@donjohnson6036]

Everyone must get back in the pool before the sharks join the party.

[@JustJeffwilldo]

Thanks for the dose of reality and sharing your wisdom.

[@kyleor7]

Keep the library studio

[@pja7]

But what about the long term damage to the economy, the poor in society and those in fixed incomes of taking 7 - 10 years to get inflation fully under control?

[@jmer9126]

I got through the GFC by reading Breakfast with Rosie columns. He’s the best.

[@erikbusenbark4865]

He's good!

[@robertrotman7730]

Rosenberg's narrative: 2020 on inflation we are still in recession 2021 no inflation as we will be in recession in 6 mos 2022 no inflation because Fed will solve it 2023 no inflation because a "depression" is coming (sarcasm here but you get my drift!

[@Jay-xr3sb]

Yep, he's been wrong for sometime

[@migmoreno3211]

David, that was a tour de force.

[@ernestlyons1720]

Always enjoy hearing his perspective.

[@4000angels]

This was another awesome interview. As I've come to expect from Welthion. Thank you to everyone involved. Please keep it up.

[@stiffdrinkfinance1981]

Mr Taggart, with all these books behind you, you look like economics professor

[@jo-anndisalvo7070]

What about seasonal employment (resorts) maybe contributing to job growth not producing gdp? Also consumers shopping at thrift stores.....just my perspective from on the ground.

[@neilsmith4732]

Great interview Adam. I love David’s passion and straightforward approach to looking at the economy

[@themacroman]

Best interview of the year! Thanks.

[@MDHardy]

Excellent discussion Adam. 12 month inflation lower? Does he not understand what $4T of new printing in two years will do to inflation?

[@robertmaxgarrison5281]

David Rosenberg is the man. Great interview.

[@grantw7946]

Winterized the lawn last fall. Did the spring lawn prep. Still watching grass grow and summer is less than a month away. Soon the grass will go dormant. Sigh.

[@thomaskauser8978]

Hope chair jerry doesn't mind that his yield curve is going to really invert if he pauses? He totally didn't get why the yield curve inverted and I suspect he thinks it will normalize after the pause? He might go from being one behind to several?

[@TheRustyLM]

Yep. Hours worked are declining at my shop. No OT for the last 4 mos.

[@nicknameis]

I love ❤️ David. He is super intelligent.

[@easterntechartists]

Barking in the wind. A broken clock is always eventually right. Is that right ? But he is making progress. He finally mentioned Zimbabwe which is a high probability possibility

[@sonialola4329]

Absolutely great interview. Thank you.

[@biden-putin-stalin]

The value of the currency is dependent on the business cycle, booms followed by busts. The latest boom in assets and prices of goods and services is going to lead to a severe bust. For the sake of the currency we should welcome it.

[@hugh233]

Rents and OERs , numbers will remain elevated and sticky, for several YEARS. Home value/ price increase, higher property tax, ins., Improvement costs,ect. Not a declining trend.

[@Gr8ERDoc]

Nice talk, however there was little explanation of what are the leading indicators he preferred and why does he think it’s better than what the fed is following keeping in mind that the fed main target is taming the inflation with reasonable employment.

[@KorvetKlan]

That was excellent but as usual too much to take on board with one sitting.

[@viahttp]

In the beginning of the Video at the climax. Guest has said quote "i think reccession has already started and we dont know". If i rephrase this and say, We dont know and reccession has already started. My question is We dont even know means you dont know simple. Amd recession has started. Thats like Guess, well guess or prediction. When its comes to prediction in finance,i dont know wanna know those stuff. Atleast numbers taughy me this.

[@robwalker1580]

The business I’m in uses high skilled field labor. Six mos ago we couldn’t hardly find a contractor available to handle overflow. Last two weeks I’m getting two calls a day looking for work by contractors. Things have changed…