PART 2: Where will the ACC Schools End UP? UNC | UVA | Duke | VA Tech | NC St | ACC | Realignment

WildUte of the College Football Mafia joins us to discuss the likely new homes for each of the ACC schools' if/when the ACC implodes. In Part 2 of this series, we discuss UNC, UVA, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. Will they end up un the B1G, SEC, Big 12, or somewhere else?
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[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Where do you think these 5 schools end up?

[@Doc_Boots]

On one hand, we have heard for years that UNC is the big prize from the ACC for SEC and B1G. On the other hand, that Wolfpack backpack is glued on tight and the State of NC is heavily tied to and invested in the ACC. Don’t underestimate those factors in tying them down.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Definitely. But when there's enough money on the line, I think things will eventually play out how the major players want.

[@artpowers812]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu Yeah but when the major players look closer, their wants may change. In fact the SEC could tie down most of SC and the whole of DMV/VA/NC with Clemson, NCSU and VT. Way more eyeball from fans who care.

[@kafkakaraoke]

This is true. Don't forget this was true for both OSU schools as well. Not only them but over and over again in realignment, and it has rarely kept teams from moving separately. I understand, N.C. is uniquely strong in these ties. I'm just not sure when it comes down to the money being on the table, if that still holds up. Historically, it hasn't.

[@kafkakaraoke]

As far as what makes sense for the SEC, They've hinted that they don't want to get much bigger. 2 to 4 schools at most. The B10 seems more open to a bigger conference, though. So if it's a package deal, though unlikely, it's probably the B10, not the SEC. Rumor is UNC has its eyes on the SEC, though. So does NC St. Have more pull than UNC. Or VA Tech have more pull than UVA. These are the questions that will come to fruition. This is where the governments' ability to impact realignment breaks down. Don't forget the media companies have their sway as well. For ESPN, your scenario might be the right fit, depending on the price, whether or not your o.k.. with receiving less money than the rest of the league you're in. Because that's the only way it happens. Personally, I don't see more than 4 without ND or 6 with ND from the ACC being valuable enough to add to the B10 & SEC at the current payouts. You know the schools Miami is #6 if ND joins the B10.

[@dacokc]

Big12 dream scenario: Pitt Louisville NC State VTECH

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

They definitely seem like the best and most likely fits. But how much farther ahead do the other two conferences get in that scenario?

[@davidcolmer5448]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu unfortunately for my dream Big12 scenario... I still think that BigTen goes to 20 with adding (19) UNC, (20) UVA... and the SEC also goes to 20 with (17) FSU, (18) Clemson, (19/20) NC-State/V-Tech/Miami..

[@loganjones3795]

When will part 3 drop? Also great Video can't wait to see what you guys think about the rest of ACC!!!

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Thanks! Watch for it later this morning.

[@kurzy17]

I see UNC/UVA heading to the Big10 because of academics and their olympic sports programs - both schools are heavy into their olympic sports, and would have to drop or move 6 sports that they generally excel at (field hockey, men's and women's lacrosse, men's soccer, wrestling, women's rowing) if they went to the SEC. I could then see the SEC taking the other two NC/VA schools in NC State and VT to expand their footprint and increase their network carriage fees in those states. If Duke doesn't stay in a revamped ACC, I could see them heading to the Big East for all sports but football (they fit well as a small, basketball-focused private school) and then playing football somewhere like the AAC.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I'm totally with you on this, although I still think the Big 12 at least kicks the tires on Duke. But good point about the Olympic sports - that often gets overlooked.

[@tarheel7406]

A year ago, on point. Now it appears UNC is leaning SEC and UVA has snubbed the SEC. After adding UNC and maybe DUKE on top of TEXAS & FLORIDA, I can easily see the SEC expanding the number of sponsored sports. D-Cup Top 10 Finishes: STANFORD 29x FLORIDA 29x UNC 24x TEXAS 23x

[@williamdiehl117]

If the Big10 can't get UNC alone, and still wants into the NC market because UNC wants a "partner" the Big10 is far more likely to accept Duke as that partner. I would give it a less than 2% chance the Big10 would take NCST

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Yes, Duke feels like a better fit for the B1G than NC St, but Duke is private and NC politics is keeping UNC and NC St tethered.

[@jansonroberts2616]

Duke to the B1G it is then. UNC is going to the SEC if and when they leave the ACC. It’s been over thirty years in the making. The SEC takes NCSU if required to ensure UNC’s membership.

[@Tom-ep5ql]

Plus outside of Basketball the more natural pairing is State and Carolina in all other sports.

[@williamdiehl117]

@@Tom-ep5ql I would add again, living in Big10 country and having been following this since all these musical chairs started when Nebraska joined - I would put the odds of the Big10 taking NCST in anyway at less than 5% - If it was a requirement to take NCST to get North Carolina then I think the Big10 passes. Not mention that NCST is not AAU. Big10 ultimate whale school is Notre Dame, which they will get once the ACC falls apart. I don't see the Big10 going past 22 which leaves 3 spots outside of the Irish. First choice picks would be FSU, UNC and Virginia plus Notre Dame. FSU is THE ONLY school the Big10 takes that isn't AAU now.

[@vivahernando1]

UNC prefers the B1G as does UVa. UNC fans see the SEC as a football conference

[@ronelite582]

Thats not true. From what Im hearing, they want to be geographically continuous in the southeast. There’s also rumors of the UNC administration and coach Brown pushing for SEC once the ACC folds.

[@davidcolmer5448]

@@ronelite582 personally I'd rather see UNC in the SEC... really limits what the BigTen does to expand and gives the Big12 better options for adding new members out of the ACC..

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

@@davidcolmer5448 Agreed. If the UNC and UVA go to the Big 10, I think there's a fair chance that NC-State and VA Tech go to the SEC. But if UNC and UVA go to the SEC, then I think the Big12 will get the other two.

[@TNBuckeye1617]

14:38: I could see the Tennessee Volunteers pushing to add VA Tech to make the Battle at Bristol a triennial SEC event. Could I see Bristol Motor Speedway agreeing to this? 100% absolutely!

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Great idea! I take it you're a Vol fan. How would you rate the rivalry with Tech?

[@TNBuckeye1617]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu I’m an Ohio State Buckeyes fan, but I live in East Tennessee. That being said, I’m struck by how Tennessee doesn’t have a true arch-rival. Maybe Florida, but that’s not as compelling as arch-rivalries should be. Bristol, Tennessee and Bristol, Virginia could provide a compelling rivalry, especially in NASCAR country. The Toledo Strip without the bad blood.

[@Gh0stRider]

If the SEC does not land UNC and/or UVA, would they then turn to NCState and/or VA Tech to get into those markets? I feel like you should have a second % likelihood score for those two school if the SEC does not get their first choice.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

You're spot on! I don't think I articulated that very well. I don't know what the SEC's dust choice is, but let's say it's UNC-UVA and they wiff, then I think it makes perfect sense for them to go after NC St and VA Tech.

[@jansonroberts2616]

UNC will join the SEC if and when they leave the ACC. The other 3 future schools are interchangeable. There will be at least one school from Virginia coming from the ACC to the SEC but its zip code isn’t a priority.

[@davidcolmer5448]

@@jansonroberts2616 why wouldn't UNC chase the money and prestige of joining the BigTen?

[@dacokc]

UNC absolutely a BigTen fit..

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

But the SEC makes sense too. The question is, where would UNC rather go? My gut tells me Big 10.

[@jansonroberts2616]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu take some Imodium because your gut is wrong. UNC isn’t going to the B1G. Listen to what little is coming out of that University. It’s the SEC conference. Good show though.

[@ronelite582]

@@saturdayswarriorbyuThe only program that desperately wants the Big ten is FSU. Duke, UNC, Clemson and UVA wants the SEC. If offered they will sign the partnership and become SEC members ( just as Texas and OU agreed upon) There’s also an article that states perhaps NC State and Georgia Tech would be added as well, making it a 22 team league SEC. I personally would like to see VT and Miami ( SEC wants the U over FSU) added to make a 24 team league.

[@davidcolmer5448]

@@ronelite582 if these conference continue to expand I'd think they'd want to round out at 20 members or 24 members. 22 is a weird number...

[@WeSRT4]

SEC - FSU, Clemson, NC, Miami B1G - Virginia, Virginia Tech This gives them an equal number of members and the SEC will keep the Southeast territory with the help of ESPN. Bank on it.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

At this point, I'd believe just about anything.

[@josecuervo3351]

B1G is not taking UVA and VT. VT is not a good academic fit to the BIG and UVA doesn’t bring anything new. Also double dipping in the state of VA brings very little to the B1G. The B1G is more likely to look elsewhere or stand pat.

[@chriss8718]

you guys are crazy if you think all of those schools leave for the B1G, SEC, and B12 but Virginia stays in the ACC. The ACC media deal will not be renewed by espn if even a few ACC big brands leave. Virginia will absolutely go B12 if they dont piggyback with UNC to the P2 - they will absolutely HAVE to go for money purposes.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Yeah, good point. Even Stanford and Cal considered the Big 12 out of desperation. But is UVA more valuable than those two schools? Because, from what I understood, the Big 12 didn't want them.

[@tarheel7406]

Get back to me after considering that the conference below got an ~$30M per media deal: WVU (small state low prestige flag) CINCY (G5) UCF (G5) BYU (special/unique P5 remainder equivalent) HOUSTON (G5) IOWAST (low population state #2) KSTATE (low population state #2) OKSTATE (low population state #2, solid overall sports) KANSAS (vanilla flag, blue basketball) TCU (G5 equivalent) BAYLOR (G5 equivalent) TXTECH (G5 equivalent)

[@ambivert1970]

If realignment were to happen as proposed, and ACC rebuilt, what are your projected percentage cuts in CFP for B12 and ACC as a G5 replenished conference? Would B12 bump up to 20% and ACC drop to 10%? Would B12 jump to 25% and ACC drop down to 5%?

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Really good question. I guess it really depends on exactly who goes where. I need to look more into how they came up with this percentages and what exactly that clause that BY had included for expansion says.

[@tarheel7406]

The CFP percentages appear to already reflect the expected ACC depletion and scatter. Otherwise, the ACC would have gotten far more than the new BIG12.

[@slibertas1996]

Duke in the Big 10 as a basketball power rival to Indiana

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I think that's a possibility that's not talked about enough

[@AC-im4hi]

There are 5 power 4 teams with more regular season wins than NC State in the past 4 seasons. If you're strickly talking on field results then NC State easily belongs in any power 2. Especially if youre taking Miami, UVA or UNC

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Yeah, but I think realignment has proven it's not all about that. I really could see them getting into the SEC.

[@kafkakaraoke]

I agree, but you could say the same thing about Utah. Just because it should, doesn't mean it will. There are other factors, unfortunately. B12 fans know this all too well. We understand the true value of schools like NC St. & and if the SEC & B10 don't, that's their loss. The B12 will roll out a red carpet, share what we have equally, and revel in the competition. Growing stronger, sharpening swords with swords until we're undeniably competing with B10 & SEC. That's the vision and goal of the B12 anyway. I hope you'll consider uniting with us in this mission.

[@jansonroberts2616]

Call your North Carolina congressmen and senators. Make them tie NCSU to the tar heels. UNC will be joining the SEC if and when they leave the ACC. Tie it tight and NCSU will be in the SEC as well when the move comes. The North Carolina BoG has all but taken the choice away from UNC anyway in regard to who UNC will bring along as a partner in the move anyway.

[@toast803]

Completely agree, but many of these conversations don't understand the value of NCSU/VT. These schools culturally, politically, academically fit the SEC. Both would regain national branding with ESPN/SEC, especially if UVA/UNC go to B1G. BTW, both of these schools should be AAU qualified as they have higher standards and do more research than half the AAU and B1G, so it shouldn't be out of the realm of possibility.

[@wolfpackmba]

Being from NC and NCSU grad, and now living in Iowa for work, it’s great to hear your perspectives and in my head I agree and disagree with some of them. Basketball is the 2nd biggest religion in NC behind Baptist, and just ahead of BBQ. Much of that is being diluted with population growth, so with politicians being involved, see a big push to keep as much of the Tobacco Road schools either together or tied via scheduling. Ultimately, big money will trump and 130 year old rivalry (State-Carolina). I definitely see UNC fitting in with the Big10 with their elitist attitude (hey, I have to rag on the Tarholes lol). State is a good fit for the SEC culturally, and should be a target for the SEC with large regional fan base and coveted NC market. I understand your concerns about State’s brand in the SEC, but will be a great rivalry with Clemson and SC. Big 12 for State? If tradition, history, rivalries are out the window, and Boo can’t make his case for the SEC, I can see State going to the Big 12 and not sticking around the ACC. Personally, living in Iowa now, it would be fun to see the Pack play at Jack Trice. Duke? That’s a tough one. They are really an Ivy League Wanna-be school that culturally doesn’t fit the Big10 nor SEC. I see them being like Wake Forest with a bigger basketball brand and sticking in the ACC.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Great take. As time goes on, I'm less and less inclined to think that Duke makes it to the Big 12. But NCST would be a great edition.

[@davidcolmer5448]

I don't see either Power 2 adding two schools from the same state UNLESS the SEC wants to lock the BigTen out of Florida and then the SEC picks up FSU and Miami... Otherwise I could see UNC going to the BigTen (with UVA) and possibly the SEC adding NC State and V-Tech...

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I'm starting to come around to that line of thinking too. I imagineNC St would show UNC to go their own way if it means they get into the SEC.

[@kafkakaraoke]

I disagree with Wild Ute here, Duke vs. Kansas is definitely juice and reason enough for Yormark and the B12. The question is, what does Duke want, the academic prestige of Stanford or a new legitimate peer as a permanent rival if UNC leaves them behind. I'm not sure what they want?

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Yeah, ultimately it comes down to what the respective university leadership of a few schools want, and that will set a chain reaction. I do think Duke will have options, even if not the ones they want.

[@tarheel7406]

Duke values academics, men's basketball, and non-revenue sports. The BIG12 is the worst P4 in academics and non-revenue sports. Is already waning from its recent peak in men's basketball.

[@davidtemple2831]

SEC wants market of NC and Virginia! B10 does not need Virginia. The tie ins with Tech and State affect this as well. B10 wants Florida market and Atlanta market. FSU and GaTech to B10. IF state and NC separate, then i see UNC and UVa to SEC. If not? We shall see. Clemson is not a priority for either B10 or SEC. Like Miami, they might find the B12 a nice landing and step up even if the ACC adds teams, because the contract will drop significantly.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I'm starting to think more and more that Miami and Clemson could end up in the Big 12.

[@tedd8055]

Nobody knows. Just speculation at this point. But it is interesting to see all these prognosticators giving their opinions. Personally, I've gotten to the point where I really don't care anymore. I know I'll see college football on Saturday, regardless of what happens.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Doesn't mean we have to like it.

[@josephbailey6399]

UNC will want the B1G prestige

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I think you're right. I'm thinking B1G should be higher when taking into account what UNC wants.

[@mikekatura6657]

And joins acc were talking about big 12 folding

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

What? I don't see the Big 12 folding any time soon.

[@tarheel7406]

The BIG12 will survive in some form; however, if it keeps getting additionally unstable by even more expansion, it will likely splinter.

[@toast803]

While athletics (football) and academics keep getting mentioned in these realignment discussions, people overlook how hard the next steps are going to be politically. You may discount it, but NCSU now holds the political power in NC. If anything, this is payback for the dirty deeds UNC-CH did to NCSU using the same BoG back in the 90s. Grudges are always held between rivals. Anyway, looking at the political leanings of the conferences and focusing on state schools, I see NCSU/VT/Clemson in the SEC and UNC-CH/UVA/FSU heading into B1G simply on the political alignment of these power schools and their alumni bases. I see the remnant ACC coalescing around the private moniker with ND joining in with Tulane. If successful, I would not be surprised with a Vandy/Northwestern move to this new formation of the ACC even though unlikely. It would be a "birds of a feather" move. B12 would get the state (pseudo-state) schools of Louisville/GT/Pitt.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Interesting take, and you may be on to something. I think NC St getting into the SEC could be the way UNC could separate from them. I doubt any teams leave one of the Big 2 unless they're kicked out since there's so much money on the line. Remember, conferences don't make much sense anymore.

[@tedd8055]

I just don't care anymore. They go where they go. If the ACC tanks, so be it. When all is said and done I know I will see college football on Saturdays.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

That's probably the only healthy attitude at this point.

[@slibertas1996]

Duke and NC go together

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

It would be hard to imagine them separating. But based on reporting, it looks like they've been on the opposite sides of things, which may suggest that Duke doesn't feel confident that it has a seat at the table.

[@Tom-ep5ql]

I get what your saying financially about State and Carolina but your ignoring politics there. They are State schools and if the State legislation doesn't allow them to split they won't split.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

And we'll see how long that holds. I just think with that much money on the line, they will find a way. Maybe one goes to the B10 and the other the SEC.

[@samsnyder4433]

The ACC should sue ESPN the B1G and the SEC…. Greed and idiocy are ruining CFB…. No one wants to see these super conferences…. Kiss your traditional regional rivalries goodbye….and most women’s sports as well … title 9 is done…. Athletes are employees? Lunacy

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Lunacy is the perfect word to describe what's Hakeem.

[@davidcolmer5448]

people should have been more upset about 10 years ago when the SEC poached aTm and Missouri... that when everything started to unravel.

[@artpowers812]

You guys miss the eastern/southern culture thing. UVA won't move the needle even for the SEC. Remember MD is not all that in the DMV but UVA isn't strong enough to challenge. Check out for yourselves the campuses, total number of students and alums/fans VT has in the DMV. And the VT attendance/atmosphere is off the charts. You correctly point out that half of NC hates UNC. In fact maybe UNC is only 3rd in the state in football attendance/atmosphere. Same hatred % in South Carolina as well. You aren't going to convert VT, NCST and Clemson fans into supporting UVA,UNC and USC. They will cold turkey quit watching football before they do that. UNC and UVA look down their academic noses at the SEC I do not believe any of the ACC, excepting possibly Pitt and Lville will go to the B12 unless there is no chance of rebuilding an ACC. An ACC losing FSU, UNC and even Clemson would still have a strong enough base to create something on par with the B12

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I'm with you that on everything except for the ACC without their top brands would be on par with the Big 12. I think they're in similar positions now, plus the Big 12 has better leadership with a strong vision.

[@artpowers812]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu No one in the B12 moves the needle on either coast. Agree on better leadership but you over rate them. I think the ACC could lose 3-4 schools and still build something as good as the B12. Again, the Big12 has no cred on either coast and you have to have those coast. Much more likely that the ACC/Big12 and new PAC all end up on the same level.

[@tarheel7406]

The mood on the MARYLAND board is complete apathy even after ~10 years in the B1G. No rivals, no regular meaningful games of high fan interest. I'm hearing that UVA appears to be risking the same. If it did go SEC, it would preserve some current and create new natural rivalries. Would have a recruiting advantage over the nearby B1G competitors. UVA seems to be slipping some in academic rankings, so that may be a reason for avoiding the SEC.

[@davidtemple2831]

ACC is dead once FSU and others move. Devaluation by losing the better schools.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Definitely. Which is why I think the Big 12 will be able to pick up the scraps it wants.

[@tarheel7406]

Get back to me after considering that the conference below got an ~$30M per media deal: WVU (small state low prestige flag) CINCY (G5) UCF (G5) BYU (special/unique P5 remainder equivalent) HOUSTON (G5) IOWAST (low population state #2) KSTATE (low population state #2) OKSTATE (low population state #2, solid overall sports) KANSAS (vanilla flag, blue basketball) TCU (G5 equivalent) BAYLOR (G5 equivalent) TXTECH (G5 equivalent)

[@ac__countsc5819]

UNC is more interested in the BIG10

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I haven't heard definitively, but that's what I would guess too.

[@Andoverx]

"Half the state hates Carolina" Correction: more than half the State hates Carolina. You have to remember your ABC's. Anyone but Carolina.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

😂

[@tarheel7406]

Lovers and haters still generally watch. This type of stuff comes from winning.

[@waddellfamily]

Completely idiotic ramblings

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Thank you for your constructive feedback.

[@davidcolmer5448]

who cares... it's still fun to think about...