Ukraine in the Balance: A Battlefield Update on the War in Ukraine

February 24th, 2024, marks two years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Please join the CSIS International Security Program for a virtual discussion with Dr. Seth G. Jones, Dr. Eliot A. Cohen, Emily Harding, and the Honorable Michael Vickers on the state of the war today, Ukrainian and Russian strategy moving forward, and the future of U.S. and other Western aid to Ukraine.
Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, will be joined by Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS; Emily Harding, Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS; and the Honorable Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and CIA operations officer.
This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.
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[@RegCostello]

There was a awful lot of optimism bias in this discussion. "Maybe Ukraine will get the equipment and ammunition it needs. Maybe the Russians will start to run out of ammunition. Maybe Ukraine will take out the Kerch bridge, and then Crimea will become untenable for Russia. Maybe the Russian people will rise up against their leadership." Actually I think government advisors have a duty to consider the worst cases. Maybe there will be no more aid to Ukraine from the US until a Democrat lead congress gets voted in (if it does). Maybe Ukraine, desperately short of ammo will have to keep withdrawing. After Avdiivka then Kramatorsk, then the Russians get some momentum and take Zaporizhia, then Kherson, then Kharkiv, and make a dash for Odessa, link with Transnistria and immediately take Moldova. etc. etc.

[@mikael5938]

agreee. very many long shots in discussion that isnt even close to be reality. And an elephant in room where no one talked about ukraine morale/losses or production. One thing always bring up is the losses of 50 year old obselete russian ships with latest nato drones like it was an ackomplishment. It high end uk/us/nato underwater tech againt 70s unarmed loading ships...

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

U really dont think Europe is gonna let Putin win this war do u ??

[@georgesibley7152]

Russia is not interested in taking Moldova or Ukraine west of Kyiv.

[@BIGBLUESTUROCKS]

@mikael5938 The ships Russia has lost are not 50 years old. 3 of the ships were brand new classes of ships and 2 were just completed and one was near completion and were all destroyed. The Moskva was the black sea Lead Ship. This is an area where Ukraine has done amazing, taking out Russia war ships, with basically NO NAVY! Ukraine will not stop fighting the Russians! The hatred fro Russia just goes to deep and goes back centuries. Ukraine has been producing military weaponry in country I cooperation with E.U. countries. This is and will help now and in the future. 1 big E.U. assistance package, 50 bil euros, and 1 big aid package from U.S, around 50-60 billion u.s $ will be very helpful while Ukraine builds up it's own production. Then small packages here and there. The problem for Ukraine is Manpower! Either the U.N gets involved or NATO. IF not Ukraine may only last about another 2 years at current rates of losses for both sides. The U.S. and U.N or even NATO should have taken care of Russia 25 years ago when Russia was fighting Chechnya. The russias couldn't beat what was essentially the state of Maryland if you compare the U.S having to fight the state of Maryland. Maryland is just and example. Not picking on this state at all. Example only! This Russian aggression can not stand! Nato and the E.U. should be standing up to Russia! This is their back yard and front yard! Step up Europe! The U.S wants to see Russia lose, and badly, but Europe has to do the brunt of work. Yes U.S should send 1 more large military package. Then it's in E.Us hands!

[@andrewkomaroff9621]

@@georgesibley7152 Почему Вы так думаете?

[@ericp1139]

The Atlantic articles proclaiming Ukraine victory in 2022 are still online.

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

they are winning in troop loss 1/5

[@linmal2242]

@@user-il2er3uo8h Ruuskis got more bods !

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@@linmal2242 speak english

[@Nauda999]

That victory will be hard to explain when in 2025 Ukraine surrenders.

[@ericp1139]

@@linmal2242 do they?

[@Johnwall2545]

How can someone has 5 times artillery than the enemy and lost 5 times to that enemy ? Do you think your viewers are stupid ?

[@frenchfree]

Scott Ritter reckons at least 5 to 1 to the Russian advantage. This seems more accurate as Russia has been playing a more defensive tactics.

[@paulstone3590]

Russians have a 10 to 1 artillery advantage. But this panel is baised for Ukraine. Ukraine has suffered horrible losses, that's why they want to recruit 500k more. And I doubt 17k Russians got killed taking Advika. They did a pincer movement not a frontal attack like on the city of Bakhmut. Advika was a heavily fortified city so losses were high.

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@@paulstone3590 check ALL the youtube videos man 16500 to 17,000 Russian troops lost in Adivka alone . When they finally do get the wests support packages it they will push them back 200 mile at least

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@@paulstone3590 russian propaganda to keep the population in order so they dont protest or speak out obviously

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

they dont have 5 times the artillery as long as the west is providing . Russia actually has 300 times less 🤣🤣😂😂

[@ahmedkiyimba5934]

CSIS panel sounds like a Briefing from a certain government Department............. probably if we knew who funds the CSIS (piper) then we can know how their output (the tune) will be

[@barrykester]

Quoth the Glavset...

[@krazyswede11]

😂😂😂 the Russian economy growing at 5% the Russian MIC is purpose driven a 152 mm artillery round for $630 and they are pumping out 400,000 per month. The US MIC is profit driven a 155 mm artillery round for $5,400 and they have failed to produce 84,000 per month 😂😂😂

[@hypothebai4634]

This is what the blob sounds like.

[@59Gretsch]

Sure, it seems like this is a state department production and there’s no doubt this is Funded directly or an directly by the state department, but if you listen carefully you can hear it’s actually a defense industry production.

[@cosplayshop]

CSIS is independently funded. A simple google search and you will be able to find the individual or group that fund CSIS. They are a 503c organisation, which mean all their funding need to be transparent. A further search will show you the major funding provided by CSIS is Georgetown University

[@midwesttraveler2485]

🙄

[@midwesttraveler2485]

Yay shows how little you know about CSIS

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

disinformation

[@allydea]

When they open up talking about how there are multiple sides to this war, one of them being the informational war, well, their entire discussion fits right in.

[@j.dunlop8295]

Definitely, propaganda is absolutely critical in the development of further support, to end Putin's 7th war, towards Putin the "Great!":😂

[@barrykester]

Long live bunker grampa as he builds more bunkers to isolate himself...

[@mcwi42685]

Great Talk! Best wishes from germany!it‘s time to revive the Trust and belief in democracy by Actions in all the West!

[@koiguidenishikigoi4972]

Success is when you win a war without loosing a single soldier in the balllefield 😅 there was never a war that was won in that case.

[@zallyzally2698]

I stop watching After I discovered that they are here discussing same old story we used to hear from the beginning , Russia is losing 50 to 1 but it is Ukraine who run out of soldiers and conscript, Russia has run out of missiles but everyday they striking Ukraine, stament but Russia is taking villages and city

[@obriets]

What you are describing is deterrence and there are quite a few examples of that.

[@cosplayshop]

It's not really a victory when you lose 17,000 troop to take a single city half as big as Manhattan over a period of 5 months. We lost 34 soldier taking Baghdad when I was in 3ID rolling down highway 1. And Baghdad is 12 times the size of Avdiivka. And even as bad as Nasiriyah and Basra, which all major city in Iraq, you are talking about less than 100 KIA each. 17000 is an entire division worth of men all dead. That's the point. Human resource in war (ie foot soldier) cannot be replace immediately unless you have ready reserve, losing that many means you either have to set back other push to consolidate your gain in Adviivka, or you push ahead with all your predetermined point and risk a counter attack somewhere down the road and thus collapsing the line. Adviivka is important because it has a route that directly go toward Sloviansk, but you still need enough force to push, if the Russian really loses 17,000 troop taking that, that mean they have around 60k casualty (1 to 3 KIA-WIA ratio) in that front, that front are going to froze in months if not a year or 2 before you can mass enough force to make another push.

[@armaniwebb4467]

​@@cosplayshopbuddy stop comparing iraq to ukraine. All the artillery fired in the entire iraq war doesnt equate to a single week of artillery in ukraine. You didnt have to deal with kamikaze drones, loitering munitions. The biggest battle you had was a few hundred troops against you. There were tens of thousands of ukranians in and around avdeyvka. This is real war, nit iraq whixh was just a slaughter against people in sandals with AK's

[@cosplayshop]

@@armaniwebb4467 dude, even back in Vietnam war day, when there is 10,000 Vietcong fighting a small Marine Regiment in Khe Sanh, we don't lose 17000 facing overwhelm artillery and men power assaults like the Russian do. Also, Iraq is not "a few scandals wearing AK firing fighter" fighting us, Iraqi Republican guard is a competent force, that give us headache with competent air force and ground force with associated artillery element. Read up on battle such as Karbala Gap and Nasiriyah You were thinking about Afghanistan, which we didn't even lose 30 men taking Kabul and Kandahar

[@anthonx88]

We have a expensive military problem. We dont have money for attrition

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

we live in a society and planet in which war "Its full of stars."

[@michaelmullins3396]

I hope these experts are very well verse in Shovel technology, as it just been reported that Russian shovel/and reworked used washing machine technology have just destroyed an Abrahams tank.

[@barrykester]

Yawn... so tired of this Russian "shovel" drivel.

[@bigolboomerbelly4348]

Abrahams tank

[@tedme1288]

I would like to see what these people were saying about Afghanistan.

[@richardenders6606]

@tedme 1288 - they were most probably assuring the US taxpayer that they had created a free democratic Afghanistan to rival Iraq and Lybia

[@Marcus_Berger1701]

there were several episodes about this.

[@lauriew3517]

The Honorable Michael G. Vickers is a member of the Board of Directors of BAE Systems, Inc., the U.S.-based subsidiary of BAE Systems plc.

[@paulmatters2641]

When money talks truth is silent

[@talesofcanterbury42]

The European resolve to support Ukraine (Hungary and Slovakia aside) is solid. If the House does not support Ukraine then America will never have to worry about Allies again.

[@lesliewoinarowicz7018]

You would never know by their actions over the last two years that Europe's support is solid. Talk is cheap.

[@WorshipinIdols]

What does the latest package have to do with helping Ukraine? There is hardly any military aid in it. Biden squandered $25.5 billion in PDA and $20.5 billion in FMF, he still has $3.4 billion in his pocket. He allowed $1.3 billion to expire. He has refused to use the Republican Lend-Lease Act of 2022. How will a $54 billion subsidy to Zelensky’s corrupt government and only $6 billion in military aid going to anything? Especially with this administration. Absurd. And Europe has revealed its true colors like never before.

[@nas4apps]

Isolationism, in time, leads to the backwardness seen in the past elsewhere: China, East-block Europe, Cuba! Check out the Cuban automobiles! They are really innovative in restoration .... they American way? America is an idea: we the People. This democratic idea is stil a threatened concept. Isolationism is against American interests and foundations.

[@nas4apps]

Excellent last points at 48 min+.... what does it mean to be an America ally? But US politicians are clear: more than a 2/3 cross party majority in the Senate. Content is not a problem, the lack of debate driven by the fear of GOP House leadership to again lose the House, paralyzes any House move - in all topics. The message to the GOP voters, who for decades called for accountability of Congress, is that the GOP sent the House on two weeks of Paid Time Off, extra, so they could do nothing. Knowing that a majority exists and knowing that this costs lives by those fighting for their own freedom and democracy against a US adversary whom the US made enticed to drop their nukes and the US defined Ukraine as a self proclaimed ally. The US are an ally, have supported a lot, but what kind of behavior is this??

[@nas4apps]

​​@@lesliewoinarowicz7018More than solid, migration-support with EU-style rights for all UKR passport holders, investment funds, mine hunting ships, cash, weapons, intel, diplomatic support, electricity guarantees (!!!), visits, broad based and in depth, more NATO inputs (collectively now >2% of gdp), new NATO memberships .... on and on. Solid!

[@Nauda999]

Any predictions on when "as long as it takes" ends? my guess is 2025.

[@riversidegardenradio9070]

The Russians aim to wrap up the SMO by September 2024 and everything on the battlefield is pointing that.

[@stephencalcutt8396]

This analysis is a mystery to me in terms of recent battlefield losses!

[@lauriew3517]

Eliot Asher Cohen is an American political scientist. He was a counselor in the United States Department of State under Condoleezza Rice from 2007 to 2009.

[@hypothebai4634]

Interesting.

[@hb419058]

Did she call Russia a bully superpower? What happened to the gas station that’s been defeated a year ago?

[@danpotra2965]

These guys ….choking on their ridiculous tropes!!!!

[@JuliaPrazsmary]

Way, way more people should see this.

[@BRB683]

These experts p Russia lost 5 to 1 ratio but Ukraine needs 500.000 more soldiers it's don't make sense to me. Where did the other 500 000 Ukrainen soldiers go?? Why do you need to recruit more soldiers?

[@aomvhome]

The Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline need to be rotated out of the front line so they can rest. That is why Ukrainian needs to recruit more soldiers.

[@BRB683]

@@aomvhome this was never a issue for the last 2 years why is it a issue now?

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

war is hazardous to your health

[@gondolacrescent5]

February 25, 2024 Zelensky claimed Ukraine had lost a total of 30,000 soldiers and the UK Ministry of Defence claims Russia has lost 409,000 soldiers. That’s about a 13: 1 kill ratio if both figures are roughly correct. Early in the war I recall reports of Russian soldiers lodged in a Barack being hit by a missile, reportedly killing 200 Russians. It was big news then and I’m sure it would still be big news….but everyday on average, over the past two years 700 Russian soldiers are killed if the figure of 409,000 is to be believed.

[@richarddean3154]

@@aomvhomeIn WWII, some US soldiers went to war in North Africa in November of 1942 and didn't come home until the war was over in 1945. Ukraine has more people going to college than they have serving in the military.

[@czharly2147]

If Russia lost more than of Ukraine in battles, how come Ukraine is retreating?

[@aomvhome]

Because it is not getting the military support it needs while Russia is being supported by Iran, China and North Korea.

[@pmenchions]

@@aomvhome The Ukraine is not getting military support it needs? What planet are you writing from?

[@bluebird1902]

....Russians would do nothing without North Korea.@@aomvhome

[@TimMountjoy-zy2fd]

Russia start with a lot more. Try and cope with the simple things.

[@hitusiks7072]

@@pmenchions Don't get me wrong - Ukraine gets the military support needed for defense, but there is for now not a single chance of retaking the lost territory, so when we put the things this way - yes, I'm pretty sure Ukraine is not getting military support it needs. Unless we agree on the fall of rule-based order.

[@pasquinomarforio]

If you guys are going to keep lying to yourselves, you're never going to analyze correctly, nor will you find your way out of this problem. You are not convincing anyone and you are providing a disservice to everyone.

[@philsilk1666]

Hasn’t the F16 been promised to Ukraine for nearly two years? Where are they?

[@uri-uf5hd]

They have been training pilots for almost 6 months . These are very complicated machines

[@richardwilson57]

The f-16 has an engine intake under the noise that is close to the ground and short stubby wings designed for high landing/take off speeds ……. It requires a long and flawless runway with no detritus that could be sucked into the engine …… an active war produces a lot of detritus ……. MIGs have a protective shield the can close the intake and open a flap at the top….. essentially the f-16 is designed to operate far from the front line……

[@lesliewoinarowicz7018]

@@richardwilson57More excuses.

[@lesliewoinarowicz7018]

@@uri-uf5hdDo you need reminding this war started two years ago.

[@user-oc1sp6wq9r]

🔥🔥🔥🔥 The WORLD needs to be well informed in order to understand is UNITED STATES responsible for so much destruction and devastation in now another country UKRAINE. I STOPPED SUPPORTING UKRAINE AS OF APRIL 2023!!! ON APRIL A KINZHAL MISSEL DESTROYED A U.S. MILITARY BINKER/BASE THAT WAS VERY SOFISTICATED IN CONSTRUCTION, IT WAS 130 METERS UNDERGROUND. THIS CONSTRUCTION COULD NEVER EVER BEEN DONE DURING THIS WAR BUT EXPERTS IN CONSTRUCTION FROM MANY OTHER COUNTRIES SAY THIS BUNKER MUST OF STARTED IT'S CONSTRUCTION MINIMUM 5 YEARS AGO AND THIS WAR IS ONLY 2.5 YEARS OLD AND MATCHES WHAT PUTIN SAYS IN TUCKER CARLSON'S INTERVIEW AND IT REVEALED TO THE WORLD PUTIN IS THE ONE TELLING THE TRUTH AND EVERYONE ELSE JUST TELLING THE SAME STORY AND GOING ALONG WITH A FAILED OPERATION THAT WAS PLANED 7 YEARS AND IT WAS A PLAN TO DESTROY RUSSIA'S ECONOMY AND SINCE WE ALREADY KNEW B.R.I.C.S. WAS BEING PLANNED AND THIS IS GOING TO RUIN OUR ECONOMY WITHOUT FIRING A SINGLE BULLET OR MISSEL. IS WHY THIS BUNKER WAS BUILT IN ORDER TO HAVE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PUTIN AND KILL HIM IN HOPES B.R.I.C.S. DOESN'T BECOME A REALITY. BUT THE U.S. WAS PREOCUPIED IN IMPORTANT BUT JUST A LITTLE LESS IMPORTANT ISSUES AS INMIGRATION AND DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS GOING AGAINST EACH OTHER IN WASHINGTON 😠 INSTEAD OF FOCUSING ON THE REAL ENEMY WITH AN INCREDIBLE ECONOMY AND CURRENTLY THE #1 ECONOMY. THIS IS WHY EVER SINCE DONALD TRUMP STARTED HIS TRADE WAR THE WORLD WENT UPSIDEDOWN 😅. RUSSIA'S INTELLIGENCE DETECTED 5-G SIGNALS BOUNCING FROM 3 PLACES: 1). Raimstein U.S. military base in Germany. 2). Las Vegas Nellis AFB 3). Fields of UKRAINE the video aired in Spanish Networks clearly show this BUNKER HOUSED ALMOST 300 MILITARY PERSONNEL AND MANY ITT ENGINEERS AND THEY ALL DIED BURIED ALIVE BECAUSE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF DOING A RESCUE. THIS NEWS IS ALREADY WORLD WIDE PUBLIC NEWS 😅 EXCEPT HERE IN U.S. AND WHEN YOU ADD WHAT PUTIN SAID IN THE INTERVIEW IT MAKES SENSE COMPLETELY ‼️ PUTIN ENTERED UKRAINE IN ORDER TO KEEP THE U.S.A. , N.A.T.O. AND ZELENSKYY FROM ALLOWING THE PENTAGON TO PUT NUCLEAR MILITARY BASES ON RUSSIA'S BORDER. 🔥IT WAS NOT PUTIN TRYING TO PUT NUCLEAR BASES IN TIJUANA MEXICO OR MONTREAL CANADA BUT THE U.S. UNTIL 5 MINUTES AGO FROM MY COMMENT STILL INCISTING ON MAKING UKRAIN PART OF THE UNITED NATIONS 😢 PUTIN IS WILLING TO GO HALF WAY AND OFFERED A PEACE NEGOTIATION BUT MANY AROUND THE WORLD KNOW THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE THE U.S. WILL ACCEPT BECAUSE IT WILL BE A HUGE HUMILIATION THAT 38 COUNTRIES WITH THE U.S. BACKING AND FINANCING FAILED IN THE OPERATION TO RUIN RUSSIA'S ECONOMY AND KILLED PUTIN 😢 BECAUSE OF U.S. PRIDE MANY MORE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WILL DYE ON BOTH SIDES AND PUSH PUTIN TO BRING THE WAR TO THE U.S. GROUND 😮 THERE ARE ALREADY 23 PLANES IN MEXICO WITH 1 NUCLEAR SUBMARINE, IN CUBA 2 NUCLEAR SHIPS AND 1 SUBMARINE, ON ALASKAN WATERS 2 NUCLEAR SUBMARINES AND VENEZUELA THEY HAVE MILITARY PRESENCE AND THIS IS PROOF PUTIN WILL ATACK NUCLEAR SINCE THE U.S. STARTED THIS HUGE WORLD THREAT. AND SOON WE WILL BLAME PUTIN AGAIN AND PLAY THE ROLE PLANNED BY THE PENTAGON. 😢

[@glasshaven.]

It’s disheartening to see war discussed in such a trivial manner.

[@linmal2242]

That is the reality from non-participants. And not so 'trivial' ; it is a controversial discussion.

[@boxingsense3459]

​​@@linmal2242 Calling these people Non-partisan is like calling Joe Biden a MAGA republican. They basically recite the narrative you hear from the mainstream media on an hourly basis, most of which are always far from reality and when the reality becomes obvious, they simply shift the goal post in order to still appear intelligent and not to be caught lying.

[@eddievangundy4510]

These warmongers have blood on their hands.

[@derekarnold3665]

The lesson here is Ukraine can''t rely on the US as a reliable partner.

[@reallyhappenings5597]

Yes, it can.

[@davidmarsden8868]

Total biased discussion

[@johnniea4684]

If advisers like Harding have any say in things we'll be tuning in to these podcasts in 2030 talking about how the war's going. As for "bleeding the Russians" in Avdiivka and Bakhmut: assuming the Russians are heavily downplaying their losses (as opposed to just not reporting any at all, as per Ukraine), if this actually happened, then how does this tally with Zaluzhny's request for 500,000 new troops to be conscripted in order to hold the current line of defence? Obviously, Russia has been adding replacements into Ukraine on top of the officially mobilized 300,000 reservists, so we can figure the attritional warfare has depleted them somewhat and especially during offensive operations, but I don't know how grimly trying to hold 2 small, fortified cities in the East, both of which have been effectively flattened by Russian artillery does not equal heavy casualties on the Ukrainian side. Both cities developed into salients, the entirety of which lay within artillery range. It's known that elite, or at least experienced Ukrainian formations have been deployed in both Bakhmut and Avdiivka. If they hadn't fielded significant numbers of troops in both fortress cities the Russians would have rolled through them in a matter of days, or weeks at most, which didn't happen. A stated war aim for the Russians was the destruction of the Ukrainian army. Doesn't fighting prolonged, static defensive, losing battles in frontline urban areas bleed the Ukrainian army?

[@calmlikeabomb2140]

This 2% is still a guideline, not a requirement. It is completely voluntary. Nonetheless. If NATO's most powerful partner is dissatisfied, of course that has to be taken into account, BUT stop telling me this is completely against US interests. A thought experiment... >Germany is arming itself massively; strengthens cooperation with France, Italy and GB and work closely together; Sign large contracts with the European defense industry, which is increasingly cooperating with each other; Increases joint planning, maneuvers, communications and becomes a military superpower. >The neighboring states of this coalition will also try to be part of it and at the same time strengthen their diplomatic relations. This usually happens through the purchase of military technology and equipment. >The USA will no longer play a special role in the area of military equipment in Europe. Cooperation is significantly cheaper and more effective within European standards and over much shorter distances. >Would the USA like that? US policy over the last 90 years has been actively against such a scenario. >>So stop playing us for fools and take on the responsibility that the USA has so far refused to share with anyone.

[@MsSquirl00]

A very large portion of revenue the U.S heavily relies on IS their defense industry. If their allies can not depend on them, they wont turn to the U.S anymore. Who then will U.S sell their weapons/defense too? To more middle eastern countries so that every man woman and child is armed? Then they can sit back and watch China pass them by. The Republicans forgot to look at the big picture. All they see is "we follow trump" and leave it at that. Those that can, do ... Those that cant, run for republican office ...

[@kevinwillis6707]

Listening to this you would think the USA is the only country that has given arms to Ukraine, it's arrogant and annoys other countries

[@bigolboomerbelly4348]

😂 Europeans buy more USA stuff than you seem to realize.

[@JM-if1mo]

Pointless dialog.

[@martinstrid4667]

Pointless channel really

[@ldhorricks]

@@martinstrid4667 and you are here because?

[@martinstrid4667]

it autoplays when youtube are trying to sway me to the views of this stupid channel@@ldhorricks

[@Tonyukukthewise]

Ahaha, it is like a comedy show! if i remember correctly you guys were wining in Iraq and Afghanistan too , right?

[@bluebird1902]

....hahaha...i know, right

[@gondolacrescent5]

Don’t forget Americas “honorable peace” in Viet Nam.

[@dirgsuite5546]

How it will end? Ukraine: We want all our territory back and become NATO / Russia: We are not going anywhere. Ukraine must remain neutral or we keep fighting / US: Ukraine cannot become NATO while the conflict is ongoing / Russia: We will keep fighting till enough Ukraine becomes Russia, so that we don't need Ukrainian neutrality anymore. Conclusion: Russia holds the cards.

[@stefansekulic7903]

Truth is there will be a settlement as neither side has any advantage since the end of 2022. Russia has been on the offensive since October 2023 and hasn't taken anything significant apart from Avdiivka. Their offensive towards Kupyansk has been crushed and they can't even take small towns on the approaches to the city. The only issue is there is less will in the west to keep sending military aid so in the end they'll push Ukraine into some kind of settlement before Trump is expected.

[@margelatu79]

@@stefansekulic7903 WTF are you talking about? Ukraine and NATO are crushed and Russians will take 30% of Ukraine's territory.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

well, the captain of that monster eastern ship might be unstable, you know, tired, touchy, has violent anger rages, erratic behavior, isolated, maybe seeing "the glory days. Oh, yeah, isolated with murderous wishes, visions, voices and other very small, little ....things. @@stefansekulic7903

[@nikoloaspapavlassopulos8919]

Guys you should call your club, the Center for Strategic Wishful Thinking . In which planet are you residing ? Pluto?

[@matthewspears3786]

Brought to you by a think tank funded by the military industrial complex. No bias here. None at all.

[@user-oz9ez3kk7x]

That's propaganda Ukraine has lost this war

[@Bob.55]

Nyet Comrade, not yet. But thanks for your expert opinion.

[@kampunghighlander4505]

Europe needs to become strategically independent of the US. This conflict has shown that American help will always be incremental and never enough to actually win.

[@DerDop]

Agreed. Its Europe versus the rest.

[@Ata5ll]

People living in the EU know this since always... Politicians are just dumb and bbelieve in their own fairy tales here. Also, in yesterday's video they showed the numbers about how much NATO members are actually spending.

[@ryanthompson1981]

As an American, I feel genuine shame at how a handful of bigots can sabatoge the trust our allies have in us. But yeah, it doesn't look my country and be trusted as a friend now days.

[@danwelterweight4137]

You Europeans are bunch of imbeciles. Russia wanted to be a part of you. They wanted to be your friends. They wanted to do business and have good relations with you just like they are having with China, India, countries in the Middle East and Africa. You could have been friends with Russia, If you did you would have become self sufficient in food, energy, all sorts of natural resources and raw materials. Your influence would have dominated all of Eurasia from Lisbon to the Bering Sea. You would have had a nuclear umbrella. You wouldn't need America for nothing. With German technology, and science and Russia's massive natural resources, energy deposits and raw materials, plus another 150 million people you would have been the dominate power of the 21st century. But you people are a bunch of idiots. Your sacrifice your own self interest for the sake of the Americans and their world hegemony. You could have bee Russia's partner, but you chose to be a bunch of tributary vassal states of the United States. Now You pushed Russia onto China's arms. You have lost Russia forever and you have given China the keys to the 21st century. There are only 3 super powers in the world. The United States, China and Russia. Russia is the weakest of them all. But Russia is the one who holds the balance of power in the world. Who ever has Russia on its side will rule Eurasia and the World. You have lost Russia to China and now China is going to dominate the world. Every one else around the world can see that except European imbeciles. They are so drive by ignorance, racism and hatred of everything Russian and Russia thst they can't see the truth right before their eyes.

[@jackthompson6296]

⁠@@ryanthompson1981if you are actually an American the only shame you ought to feel is that you bought into the us vs. them mentality. It’s one nation, united not one nation, divided

[@matke663]

Who thinks to learn anything about the truth listening to former intelligence officers, should consider to look up what their job actually is.

[@zdravkoavdalovic3131]

Warmongers farts

[@TommyV8898]

Just so that I understand: Russia had 15k losses taking Avdivka, Ukraine had no losses that are worth mentioning, except the 1k left behind by a chaotic retreat, but that was actually a success. Very convincing analysis, U S A!

[@aomvhome]

All evidence indicates Russia took Avdivka only after suffering tremendous loses. No one said it was a picnic for the Ukrainians. But the Ukrainians are fitting a genocide. They don’t have a choice to stop. They need our help and it is in the interests of the West to help them despite the Russian misinformation.

[@jetserb]

go watch CNN more

[@arnoldvezbon6131]

This is CNN moron

[@gondolacrescent5]

Ukraine didn’t abandon Adivka, they engaged a “tactical withdrawal” and went to great lengths in making it appear all discipline and morale had collapsed.

[@SilverforceX]

Ukraine had a million strong army in late 2022. It evaporated in Bakhmut, the counter-offensive, Krynki and recently Avdiivka. Russia receiving huge volunteers daily, close to 1,000 per day! Not even forced conscription like in Ukraine with mobilizers randomly capturing men.

[@Roiddz]

46:35 amazing recap and explanation

[@rosshilton]

It’s important to identify the Ukrainian centre of gravity, which I think is the terrain. At first glance Ukraine looks much like the rolling Fulda gap, the area between the Hesse-Thuringia border and Frankfurt am Main, and the North German Plain. these two corridors were the ideal route for Soviet Shock Armies to invade Europe. so much so that almost all modern day Main Battle Tank development was based upon these areas. the Abrams, the Challenger and the Leopard were all designed specifically for combat in these two areas. The alluvial shale and soil structure of the Fulda Gap is strong enough to support the weight of very heavy Main Battle Tanks. The Leopard, Abrams and Challenger took advantage of this, and are very heavy. but Ukraine is very different. At the heart of Ukraine’s agriculture is its highly fertile soil. Nearly a quarter of the world's most fertile soil, known as Chernozem, is located in Ukraine. Almost all of it to the East of the Dnieper river. Chernozem is black soil rich in organic matter called ‘humus,’ which is made up of decomposed plants. More than 65 percent of arable land in Ukraine is composed of Chernozem deposits, making it ideal for farming. These soils are peat-like and soft. So soft that land erosion is a serious problem. every year around 500 million tons of soil are eroded. The North German Plain is very different. It comprises predominantly coarse grained sands and silt that is capable of supporting heavy armour. Most of the year the Ukraine rolling plains cannot support Main Battle Tanks, as they risk sinking in to the hull in the peat-like soil. In fact the only real opportunity is a brief window of opportunity between early February and late March, when the soil freezes down to a depth of around 2 feet. after that the thaw starts, and by May around 65mm of rain is falling each month, adding to the softness of the terrain. Russia left its invasion of Ukraine too late to take advantage of this hard frozen ground. this invasion didn’t start until 24th February. The Russians were using the Soviet/Russian doctrine of manoeuvre warfare, where fast moving armoured forces exploit gaps and weak points, bypassing areas of resistance. Artillery then subdues these areas of resistance using an escalating range of weapons from conventional explosives to chemical and tactical nuclear. The initial stages of the invasion went well for Russia, and they almost encircled Kiev in the early days. By late March the Russians found the ground had softened. This prevented exploitation of gaps and weaknesses, as tank crews became wary of being trapped in soft soil. This stopped the Russian advance. A further problem developed when the Ukrainians noted that the Russian armour was staying on the main roads, as they tried to avoid soft ground. The Ukrainians began using portable anti armour weapons to destroy the front and rear tanks in ambush, allowing them to pick off the other trapped tanks at leisure. The above means that the Ukrainian centre of gravity is its soft (and frequently muddy) terrain. This is well known and recognised. It played havoc with Nazi Germany’s offensive towards Moscow in 1941. “The roads rapidly became nothing more than canals of bottomless mud, along which our vehicles could only advance at a snail’s pace and with great wear to the engines,” lamented Heinz Guderian, a German general, that October. “The Ukrainian mud in spring has to be seen to be believed,” noted a British journalist during a Soviet offensive in 1944. “The whole country is swamped, and the roads are like rivers of mud, often two-feet deep.” The Russians will have to either develop a new war fighting doctrine or limit armoured manoeuvre to a six week window each year. The same restriction will apply to Ukrainian armour, especially the heavier tanks being delivered by Western nations. The Challenger and Abrams tanks all weigh 62.5 tons each. The Leopard is an incredible 67.5 tons. A T72 is around 20 tons lighter, and even the new T90 is only 50 tons. When considering combat in Germany these weights only influenced transport and bridging assets. In Ukraine they risk slowly sinking into the ground.

[@frenchfree]

I would dispute casualty numbers, that Russia is losing more than Ukraine. Russia has been playing a defensive war (up until recently) and science says the attacker losers more killed.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

intermittant thrusts of power projection kills many russians and damages their their tanks

[@lauriew3517]

CSIS receives funding from U.S. government entities and international ally and partner governments.

[@dennistate5953]

Long term mfg contracts also strong signal to Putin.

[@NathansHVAC]

And that strong signal is more nato expansion?

[@dennistate5953]

@@NathansHVAC nah. Just also no russian expansion into sovereigns.

[@NathansHVAC]

Ahh. Only US expansion is allowed with covert political operations to give the people the correct candidate to vote for.

[@alhambrabiker1476]

@@NathansHVACPutin already failed with his war objective stopping NATO expansion. Finland is already part of NATO and it has bigger border with Russia

[@NathansHVAC]

​@alhambrabiker1476 Finland doesn't have oil. Don't pretend that doesn't matter.

[@lipgloss202]

Only 31 tanks from US to Ukraine?? what the heck is going on? That is an average of 3 tanks per year since the war started 2014.

[@junkscience6397]

There were zero tanks going to Ukraine for all but two of those years. But thanks for playing.

[@dirtyharry6297]

Endless fields of tanks and ammunition in US hands, same with Aviation! Offering 34 tanks by US is a humiliation and have great expectation - is totally delusional approach

[@johncromwell2529]

These abrams and Bradley’s were made purposely to defeat the soviet equipment and now just rusting away

[@peterlaurie1247]

In the area of equipment US has in many cases only provided token numbers. Dutch F16s may get to Ukraine before US ones! US would probably prefer Europe to pay for all this stuff. This is not just a Trump issue. It seems that Putin wants all of Europe for his own and US is happy to give it to him. I think your bigger US corporations imagine they are going to do lucrative deals with Russia in the future, at China"s expense, but this is huge mistake.

[@noobster4779]

Fun fact: Germany has send more tanks then the USA to Ukraine Germany, a country that build its last compleatly new tank in the 1990s while the USA has an active industrial tank production going. Sure, Germany only send 16 Leopard 2s and 100 old Leopard 1s, but considering the entire german army has barely more then 300 tanks and 0 tanks in storage its a lot different from sending 31 tanks while having hundreds sitting in a texan desert doing nothing. Americans always love to talk about how supposedly little europeans are doing, but basically every weapon system that europeans right now send to Ukraine comes form active duty troops in europe while the USA has the luxury of only sending already decomissioned weapons without weakening its own military. Germany had to disarm one of its tank battalions to support ukraine, the USA wouldnt ven have to do anything to send a few hundred tanks to Ukraine. Heck the USA would propably SAVE MONEY by doing it because the decomissioned equimeant would no longer have to be destroyed after service time. Its literally cheaper for the USA to send old stuff to Ukraine then to keep it do to saving on scrapping cost. The "Arsenal of Democracy" is truly a joke at this point. Billions of USD to invade Iraq on made up charges but compleatly unwilling to help a democratic countrydefend itself against an invading dictator. For fucks sake the USA send its own troops to liberate Kuwait, a country with an absolute monarchy and slavery, from Iraq annexing it but cant be bothered to send equippmeant its own army no longer wants form storage to a democracy in europe under attack? American soldiers dying for Kuwaits Oil but not even willing to send weapons to help other countries defend their democracy without a single american soldiers life on the line.

[@Humorless_Wokescold]

The involvement of Japan and South Korea should be the clearest sign the war in Ukraine is bigger than just a regional conflict. So it's not actually surprising to me that isolationists are trying to pull the US out of it. Isolationists don't really care if something is important and in our best interest. They care about grandstanding. Anyway, more on topic. European rearmament is good example of why, regardless of your politics, you want to invest in maintaining a robust military. Lack of use leads to atrophy and reversing atrophy always costs more than you think and takes longer than you have. So if you divest of your military you'd better hope there isn't any moment in the next few decades where you'll need it. As we've just learned, it doesn't really matter whether you have a world class engineering community that regularly produces some of the world's best material. Harding's point about Avdiivka is a good one. Russia and Ukraine are both struggling from man power issues but Russia is down to just Muscovites as its only untapped population group. That's its workforce. Are they going to be able to actually field them in the next round of "partial mobilizations?" Probably. But what's that going to mean for the rest of Russia's logistics? Are they going to buy even more shells from North Korea? Are they going to start bringing in indentured Chinese workers to keep their factories working? Neither country seems to be planning for what they'll look like after the war. They're just throwing everything at the front hoping something will be the magic bullet that breaks the enemy.

[@NathansHVAC]

Both sides have plans for after the waaar. Ukraine sells out to wala streeta. Russia get to keep the black sea.

[@ayoungethan]

And on the other side, North Korea, China and Iran...definitely NOT a "regional" conflict

[@Steve-fe8gj]

South Korea and Japan have obligations to support the Ukraine war, based on the support the US has given those countries……the hand shake was very strong.

[@hendrikvanleeuwen9110]

I think you are underestimating Russias position. They have set up an international trade system outside of the US dollar and raised their position in the non western world. It is not just China and N Korea, but India, Iran and in African countries. On the military front, they are pulling in 30k volunteers per month and are in a position to give them extended training from combat veterans. (Hopefully Ukraine can start learning their own lessons and stop relying on largely irrelevant NATO training). Russia has already multiplied tank, aircraft, drone and artillery production, in addition to what it can buy off its allies. The west has totally failed Ukraine in ammunition and tech supplies.

[@CSOB2B]

​@@hendrikvanleeuwen9110 do you have a source for the 30k volunteers a month? That seems at odds with sentiment I get from the Russian public, and it also seems at odds with needing to do mobilizations in general. 30K volunteers a month to go into that meat grinder does not sound right

[@robertnorman7309]

I agree some countries are spending too little on defence and I agree at this point we should all be spending more. US has to understand however if it wants to lead there are burdens. Trump could unberden the US but it will also be abandonning its leadership, that should be understood. US needs to decide if it wants that.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

oh god, so many stoned people

[@gondolacrescent5]

The US unipolar dominance of the world began in 1991 with the collapse of the bipolar dominance of the USSR and USA. Putin re-established the dominance of Russia and since 2018, China has grown to become part of the multi-polar dominance system that now exists. The US State Department is well advised to re-assess its current and future expectations, especially since the worlds most populous nation, a nuclear power with an economy growing at 9% a year will no doubt soon be joining the multi-polar domination of the world. I’m not referring to China- I’m referring to India.

[@megaforcemedia]

If you want to get beyond this nonsensical propaganda check out military summary or other sources that gjve granular updates

[@spaceoddity2485]

There’s always somebody on the shows who is promoting the book. Lol.

[@terencedonohoe9123]

South Korea thinking about getting nukes, they are not the only ones. Would you blame Ukraine for going in the same direction? Don't underestimate them. Scary times when you can't rely on allies

[@mikael5938]

would you go die in south korea or estonia for their country ?

[@terencedonohoe9123]

@@mikael5938 not sure I understand the question or how it relates to above comment, sorry.

[@mikael5938]

@@terencedonohoe9123 you write cant rely on allies. Why would texas boys travel to south korea and die ? you can never trust allies as everyone does whuts best for them.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

the point is proliferation. @@terencedonohoe9123

[@lauriew3517]

Seth G. Jones is an academic, political scientist, author, and former senior official in the U.S. Department of Defense.

[@monsieurgrigny]

Why don't you tell us something we don't know? In the first ten minutes it was just vague generalities.. Why doesn't somebody stand in front of the map with a stick and show the movements on the front???

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

helping the enemy is bad.

[@frenchfree]

"War is economics by other means." The US has won the economic war with the destruction of Nordstreams. Germany and Russia have been separated. Ukraine has died for the US and will have to take what is offered in the end.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

comment is realpolotik. cold blooded. most people don't think that way... think or something easier and more popular, you know more fun, sure you do, people do it all the time.

[@rosshilton]

Where is this 17000 losses come from? Dont tell me you believe one side over the other....

[@deathwarmedup73]

Following your advice I've decided to believe neither side and make up my own figure of 100,000 losses

[@dirkhouben9960]

With all these Ukrainian victories and Russian losses, I do not understand why the Ukrainians need to mobilise yet another army and equip it with urgently expected US and EU weapons deliveries and financial aid. Also, when Russia is going to invade some NATO countries after Ukraine, why are we donating all our defence capabilities to Ukraine?

[@terencedonohoe9123]

Russia is changing to a totalitarian state, that doesn't happen over night without risk of revolt but it's happening and allows the regime there to throw more resources into the war. Ukraine has done miracles with what they've been given but they are now up against Russia/Iran/China/NK production. Europes capacity has to be rebuilt and is lagging so US aid is crucial at this point. I don't believe Ukraine will give up as their population will be outright killed and what's left of their army forced to fight for Russia most likely against the next country. It's long been Russia's MO as seen in previous wars like chechyna

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

so it doesnt get that far . Russia will be lucky to beat Ukraine with US and European technology

[@richardpeychers4076]

Exactly,because Russia has no intention of attacking any European country after Ukraine, these are scare tactics to muddy the waters and support the stupid theory Russia wants to reserect the USSR and take over the world. Russias goal is to hold NATO's feet to the fire regarding Ukranian neutrality and the Minsk agreement.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

if you get into a fight, it's nice to have friends. if not the thugs will take us one at a time. WW I, WW II. they tell a story. Read the "Swerve." History is red.

[@johnm7267]

They talk about Russias limited success in Adviika and assume that the figure of 177,000 losses are correct no mention of Ukraine losses. I put it you that it is impossible to confirm those figures. Then it was said that Russia had made no gains in 6 months ( nor did Ukraine) implying some sort of incompetence, when maybe they were spending time reinforcing their defences. So from the very beginning this group of experts are trying to spin it that Ukraine is winning.

[@williamstewart7725]

Thank you.

[@lazarusmwansa4525]

These hypocrites never mention Ukrainian losses.. Russian gains are symbolic while Ukrainian gains are strategic...

[@eddieokpara3549]

We talk of Russian casualties, never Ukraine despite the fact that prior to the war, Ukraine had the largest military in Europe and now lacking manpower and forcing conscription

[@paulstone3590]

Propaganda panel

[@justingoretoy1628]

​@@paulstone3590My only question is, you think they're huffing their own propaganda?

[@paulstone3590]

@@justingoretoy1628 Yes. They sit there and reinforce their own biases without anyone questioning their positions. If they were serious about talking about the future of this war then they should have someone on who opposes this conflict and have a real debate if it should continue. And not force feed their pro war narratives to the audience.

[@justingoretoy1628]

@@paulstone3590 Better analysis of the panel than this panel of "anylists" has analyzed The Ukraine War.

[@paulstone3590]

@@justingoretoy1628 Thank you.

[@georgezuniga6298]

It's over and Russia is staying with what they have. Ukraine can't wait forever for more weapons from USA and their people are being exhausted. There has to be a peace, if anyone can live with that.

[@cosplayshop]

Nobody can be "staying with what they have" if the other side intended to fight for it, it happened to US when Taliban, even tho kicked out of Afghanistan, outlast the US/ISAF. It also happened in Afghan again this time to the Soviet Union when they have kicked out the Mujahedeen. As one famous Vietcong leader Lê Quang Ba (Colonel, 316 division) put it during Vietnam war "They can have the biggest tank, they can have the biggest bomb, they can have the biggest artillery, but unless they planned to stay here for the next 50 years eating rice, they will never win because they don't belong here"

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@yshop yes while the Taliban lost close to 300,000 troops and US lost 6,000 they kicked us out ? yeah right !!

[@cosplayshop]

@@user-il2er3uo8h well, do tell me who is in control of Afghanistan now and how many troops the US has in Afghanistan...I will wIt

[@revdrjack14]

What if Russia walked into Alaska? Then Canada?

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@@revdrjack14 Noone walked into Russia whats your point ?

[@user-sc5nk4mw6p]

The fundamental issue is that the American political system permits inaction and indecision by a minority of house or senate voters.

[@apg381]

Not all European countries put in less than 2%, UK and most East European countries are over the 2%. In fact Greece and Poland have exceeded the US percentage (although given their GDP it is not significant). I wish these commentators from the US, would say who is at fault - that is Germany (who have putting less than 1% for years), France and Italy - these are the biggest economies and would make the biggest difference. Especially Germany, who have become heavily reliant on Russian Oil and Gas. Also Europeans have other things to spend on e.g. healthcare and social care, which US politicians don't care about.

[@BzhToine]

Don't put to much on France shoulders. We're already engaged in West Africa to do the same job as US in middle east, Barkhane and other operations in this area is the "war" of a generation of French soldiers as Afghanistan is for American ones. Our hardware is not rotting in hangars but being scraped by the sand and the IEDs. France was also the main provider of military supply to Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. We should have provided more to Ukraine but the end of the cold war had seen the same budget cuts as everywhere else so we don't have that much hardware and munitions reserves for ground combat as the whole army, navy and airforce are in the middle of a renewing all it's hardware to adapt digital combat As exemple a Ford class Carrier, new attack and strategic submarines, or a whole new generation of ground vehicules from 4x4 to light tanks (and not even it have wheels but also an autocanon :p). France is aslo pushing Europe to develop it's independance since decades and is developping the command and control ability to handle a multinational army corp wich only US can do now among NATO. Either than France, our nordic partners from Sweden and Finland are great assests too and for long now integrated in the EU defense waiting to be totally NATO integrated. But yeah... Germany is a pain in the ass. There is a lot shitalk about France not being able to conduct project with partners but people forgot the FREMM, MAMBA (IRIS-T) or the new supply vessel with Italy, METEOR with GB, Airbus or Ariane... An other point is how difficult it is to have a viable armament industry as the market on the NATOish side is flooded by US companies. Even for France, witch is the second mondial exportator (3rd before 2022) it's hard to reach viable scales exports because of the geopolitical influence of US governement on weapon sells. As exemple Dassault and multiple contracts in Europe like Switzeland were the decisions were largelly influenced by US government. An other exemple is the submarine contract with Australia, wich would had allowed Naval Group to step up in term of scale. Glad for French companies, we have our traditional customers all across the world, but I can't imagine how difficult it could be for companies in other countries to grow like Grippen. (Not to blame anyone here, just adding elements to the analyse.)

[@kkquikB1]

@@BzhToinethe submarine contract was just common sense. Australia needed nuclear because the pacific is a lot bigger than the mediterranean. Also, if they do fight china, it will be with American support and integration, not French. No need for conspiracy theory.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

not any more.

[@MurrayLake]

These people just convinced me that we are in a lot of trouble in the Ukraine. It's not hard to spot a group of people lying to themselves and looking to each other for support.

[@user-ev6do5dg8k]

bery thorough

[@bigolboomerbelly4348]

What about a map that shows where this stuff will be built? I think the GMLR factory is in Tennessee.

[@jackbolder5734]

It's tragic, especially considering how unnecessary stupid it is.

[@armaniwebb4467]

If you were being bombed for years you wouldn't say its stupid. Your comment lets me know you are definitely from America.

[@meshzzizk]

I've followed the major newspapers' reporting on this conflict, as well as commentary by credible mainstream military analysts like Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, and Jack Watling. I've also read more heterodox/independent scholars of the region's politics and history like Richard Sakwa, John Mearsheimer, and Ivan Katchanovski, as well as articles by leftist Ukrainian academics who aren't dupes of nationalist ideology. And I don't see the body of nuanced information and serious critical perspectives I've mentally accumulated over the past two years reflected whatsoever in this discussion. These panelists have a brazenly jingoist, ideologically-blinkered framework for talking about Russia and its war with Ukraine. And as a result--especially given how things currently stand on the battlefield--their remarks here sound, frankly, outright delusional.

[@davidturner8637]

For these folks, it's how they get their money, they need to prolong the gravy train. Peace is bad for their business.

[@jetserb]

Exactly

[@netizencapet]

Finally, I thought I was the only one with a similar apprroach & orientation.

[@maharicaleb9152]

They can fool some people same time but they can’t fool all the people all the time from Eritrea 🇪🇷

[@aomvhome]

I disagree with you. Russia is waging a genocidal war of conquest and Iran, Norrh Korea and China have jumped on board as it helps their cause for disrupting the rules based order. That is the nuance. Do you think killing civilians and kidnapping and brainwashing children is a good thing? Is it a legitimate approach?

[@HuonStride-to2um]

Brilliant!!!

[@walterstoll8043]

Hi, NATO has mobilised the last defense and have send Mrs. Meloni, Ursula van der Leyen and many more to Kiev to keep the Russians out and hold hands with Zelensky!

[@jakelilevjen9766]

I don’t know if it good or bad that I knew as much about what is going on in Ukraine as the experts. It wasn’t challenging. Listen to discussions for a couple hours a day while doing chores. How can people NOT know what is going on, or know what is going on and not see the importance of supporting Ukraine?

[@dmg8821]

I feelmlike this experts don’t say much they seem biased to me, no real data, only speculation and even in the language

[@jakelilevjen9766]

@@dmg8821 Any specific examples you would like to call out?

[@gordonmcdonald2196]

That’s because most intelligent, logical, and research driven ordinary people see through all the lies, especially by US intelligence academics, who probably convinced the leaders of NATO and the EU, that Russian would lose very quickly.

[@gleestruwe1818]

​@@jakelilevjen9766yes, every one of them have got the nod Togo on like Ukraine more likely winning , witch is laughable😏

[@matthewspears3786]

If you think it's unbelievable that some people don't see the importance of supporting Ukraine, it's likely you're in a silo of information of only pro-Ukraine information. Remember truth is the first casualty of war and information warfare is a very real thing. It's very important to get some information from quality news sources far away from the establishment as well as detailed views of people who disagree to check biases. On the military side, I heartily recommend former NATO officer Jacques Baud, who recently published a book on Russian military practices. Very knowledgeable and there's a more neutral history of the Ukraine conflict online written by him.

[@wobblewhisper]

0:00: 🌍 Discussion on recent events in Ukraine with experts from various backgrounds. 5:07: 💥 Intense warfare between Ukraine and Russia involving naval battles, deep strike campaigns, and information warfare. 10:16: ⚔️ Analysis of Ukrainian offensive rates of advance and comparisons to historical conflicts. 14:51: 💡 Analysis of recent military actions in Ukraine and concerns over lack of support from the United States. 19:14: 💡 Reflections on the failure to address the urgency and scale of military engagement. 23:56: 💬 European support in aiding Ukraine questioned amidst criticisms on defense spending and Russian fuel dependency. 28:25: 💡 Challenges faced by Russia in military production and economic revenue, highlighting the importance of US involvement in supporting Ukraine. 33:14: ⚔️ Russian air power tactics and defensive measures in Ukraine conflict. 37:50: ⚔️ Analysis of conflict trajectory: Russia's offensive vs. Ukraine's defensive stance. 42:23: ⚔️ Russian military facing heavy losses may focus on preparing for future operations in 2024 and 2025. 47:00: 💥 Global powers challenge existing world order for self-interest, disregarding democratic values and prioritizing economic gains. Timestamps by Tammy AI

[@jetserb]

Heavy losses by CNN, BBC, Sky, Reuters and they all got infornacion about “Russian Losses” from Ukraine MOD 😂😂😂 AKA Ask my Brother the Liar 😂🤣😂

[@nas4apps]

Lots of those European defense systems were indeed in a post-cold war feel: peace. And they purchased US 'kit', importing US goods, which differs from the US defense which economically stays in the US. Obama made it clear to increase spending and a fact for this diacussion: Euro Nato defense spending does pass 2% of their collective GDP in 2024: a considerable rise. The challenge was often: how to grow. It cost immense amounts of training and technological upgrading. Still the production of systems is strongly US oriented: the US win a lot through Euro-Nato spending, like F35s (replacing those F16s which move into Ukraine).

[@TrevorD2502]

Im hearing gung ho for America to backstop Ukraine who didnt listen to Russia saying take care of Russian people in eastern Ukraine & don't join Nato. Im not hearing European countries who are in the sphere of this European war taking more responsibility for the military & financial contributions of this conflict.

[@SuperPsydude]

So if you lot are the cream of the crop, that speaks volumes and makes it so easy to see why America is in decline and no longer respected or feared by most countries.

[@SuperPsydude]

It also leaves me dumb-founded every time I hear you Americans bad mouth the Russian military, yet the Houthis are just humiliating you, not to mention you just got a proper hiding from a bunch of farmers in sandals with AK's? Keep on prodding the Bear, I dare you, they will put you down! Why? Because they are realists while you lot are just delusional and might as well be living in another dimension!

[@gregorysteele718]

THE M I C IS GETTING RICH!

[@adequatedrainage6380]

Downplaying the role of training the Ukrainians on new western equipment, underestimates the time necessary for familiarization and gets mislabeled as dithering. Good training is somewhat of a long term approach. It shows in the quality of the fight in Ukrainians.

[@user-xq1wz3tp5z]

And those who were trained & equipped ... are mostly dead by now.

[@3dEmil]

For entertainment I'm watching analyses from both sides of this conflict and I don't know how stupid people can be to be blinded and become irrational by their biases. Regarding the statement based on imaginary price of the battle "Yes Russia got Avdiivka but at what cost?" to suggest Ukraine was the winner of the battle, using the same logic these talking heads can announce that Germany won the WW2 against Russia because Russia lost twice as many men.

[@daviddunkelheit9952]

I know they are doing a lot of equivocation and deflection to cope.

[@harrisdupree3323]

No war in history was ever won by a think-Tank.

[@harrisdupree3323]

@@daviddunkelheit9952 Down South we just call it BULLSHIT!!

[@ayoungethan]

1. Russia didn't win ww2, it helped start ww2 (secretly rearming the Nazis, carving up Europe with Hitler, betraying Jewish communists to the Gestapo, actively supplied the Nazi war effort, etc). The best thing Russia did was finally fight back and distract the Germans when Germans got greedy and betrayed their aspiring ally. Germans betrayed Russia because they saw how weak of an ally they were in battle and wanted direct control over Russian resources. Learn your history. 2. No one said Ukraine won the battle. 3. Stop spreading misinformation. It is lazy and stupid at best. Makes you sound like a 5th columnist.

[@badwolftx2139]

It's called cognitive dissonance. Ukraine is both out of ammo but also supposedly inflicting mass casualties on Russia ...again with no ammo.

[@romper4444]

Good discussion, I understand the sorta bias that goes on during these discussions as it comes from a place of thinking with that "freedom fighter" attitude. I get why you only want to talk about Ukraine's successes and not their failures and the desire to not want to amplify Russia's battle victories. But what I don't understand is the lack of mention or honesty around the severity of the fact that the severe dwindling of Ukrainian forces and people that are left to actually fight this war against Russia. All the aid and weapons in the world won't help them win this war if there's no one left to fight it. Especially when the history of Russia and war has shown that they will willingly keep see throwing bodies at the problem until Ukraine has nothing left. They are able to do this just on the pure fact that Russia has 300 million people to carelessly enact this strategy. In light of the last 6mths, I think it's time we start having a more honest conversation about the fact that sometimes the bad guys win. These are facts in reality of life in this world. And it's dishonest to sit across the world in perfect safety and say we are going to keep supporting this war until the very end when we are so disconnected from the reality that loosing an entire generation of Ukrainian peoples lives is just not worth it. War is never worth it. We need to push for peace negotiations, especially when it's not our lives at risk. So unless the conversation is going to be had about commiting us troops on the ground, the only way I think they could have the manpower to win at this point. So unless that happens, what's left of Ukraine will be harder and harder to sell as "a win" to the people. I think we have to stop gambling with Ukrainian peoples lives. I truly think we are past that point already to be honest. I know it sux, but the longer we wait to negotiate for peace the more and more Putin's position will be strengthened and the less and less we can negotiate for. And in the end, if Ukraine ends up with less favourable terms than what they could have negotiated for in the first place. The more all these lives are taken in vain. We or they may not like the terms....but life is too precious.

[@11111ven]

Comment heard “Things doing now should start a few years ago” Why we need an expert to say that. Irrespective of who win or loose.

[@Ata5ll]

Why is it so hard to put the GDP thin in % of manpower in the army or something? each square kilometer of country equals this much troops, in the end if you have a lot of land you have a lot of place to put factories? or what if countries that do not add a lot of manpower spend into factories and logistics to supply the countries that spend into manpower?

[@Dougohere1]

The problem in a nutshell is that Russia had a strategic objective from the outcome and that Western backers never did have one. We talked about what we would not do and did nothing for too long. Those inactions were an open invitation to Russia to continue with its invasion. Is democracy worth fighting for or not?

[@conorwhite2066]

5:00 Positional warfare alright ...with Russia having 5 times the artillery and multiple times the men.. and where they have trapped Ukraine twice in cauldrons - bakhmut and Adivika Positional warfare not good for Ukraine

[@bill5868]

We have seen many experts, specialists predict, forecast, determine what will happen, should happen, could happen but most are wrong. There are more actions beyond aid package could be utilized. Yes $60B will be great but others actions can be implemented for less. Seize Russian assets, cut off Russian export by banning import like oil, cut off sanction breakers by holding CEOs accountable and much more. Maybe Europe will step up when Ukraine is gone.

[@ldhorricks]

exactly...

[@pseudonym745]

Thank you very much for making this first tier intelligence accessible to the public. It's very much appreciated! Greetings from Germany and thanks again for keeping Europe safe for all the years. Not everybody has forgotten what the US has done expecially for Germany. Besides making room for streets in the cities 😉

[@gondolacrescent5]

America irrevocably ended Germany’s dependence on copious and cheap Russian Gas. god bless ‘merica.

[@bigolboomerbelly4348]

​@@gondolacrescent5russians treat Germans like shit.

[@corujariousa]

Ukraine's survival so far is a huge testament to their commitment and strength. The long unresolved conflict is a shame to NATO and confirmation of how the world lacks in courage, organization, coherence and long-term review of issues and how to manage strategic risks. A loss for Ukraine, in any form, will be a spit on NATO face. Putin would be bragging and bolstered to continue acting as he's been for decades.

[@robertprawendowski2850]

⭐

[@leanneaho920]

This is so friggen Hunger Games..."Now, Let's take a look at district Ukraine and May the Odds be ever in their favor".

[@mwewalukonde3529]

These people really like the sound of their voices

[@murrayhill9000]

Ms Harding's analysis was pragmatic and logical. However, the discussion didn't mention the elephant in the room, i.e., the Zaporizhya Nuclear Plant. NATO will have to plan with Ukrainians to extricate the ruzzians from the 4,00 Ukrainian workers at the plant because they are involved directly, like it or not. Secondly, there won't be a negotiated settlement. We don't have negotiated settlements with several countries. The new Ukrainian Command put aside the NATO idea of a major offensive as in previous wars and instead, they are "shaping the battlefront". When your enemy has greater numbers of men and material, you hit them in the rear where their supply is. Then you make the civilians feel the burn by taking out refineries (4 knocked out currently with 40 to go), destroy their electrical substations, seaports and factories. Time is not on Russia's side. China is involved only to make a buck and their economy is in very bad shape right now. Chinese banks are not accepting Rubles. The gentleman with the bow tie interrupted the most and managed to talk down to we boys and girls who didn't know what attrition was. I was expecting a much more profound analysis here.

[@gondolacrescent5]

The “elephant in the room” is this: For Ukraine to achieve its current war goals of reparations, war crime trials and return of Russian occupied Ukraine/ Crimea, its armed forces need to occupy Moscow- and accept Russias unconditional surrender. Given that Russia is a nuclear weapon super-power and Ukraine isn’t, how on heaven and earth can Ukraine “win”? The only solution to this is for Russia to conquer and destroy all Ukraine- or- for all parties to suck it up and negotiate a workable peace, regardless of the animosity and contempt they have for their enemy. The US/West and USSR/ Russia have negotiated many treaties and solutions in the past- the ones that worked and lasted were the ones where both parties had too much to lose by not working out a solution that addressed issues faced by both sides. The “Cuban Missile Crisis” comes to mind as a good example.

[@gushunter6709]

Superb summary Emily.

[@AndriyShulyar]

Still, after 2 years, no Ukrainian experts in this discussion, therefore there’s no value in this conversation.

[@user-rt8oz8nz9z]

most people speak to their values and ideas and myths. your expert may have a boy in the game

[@AndriyShulyar]

This is not about somebody’s interest or bios. This is about the fact that American experts proved themselves to be so wrong about Russia for so many times and knowing nothing about Ukraine.

[@tedme1288]

Ukraine is critical., our own Border and security not so much.

[@BudSchnelker]

It's bizarre how this entire class of people, two years ago, began chanting "Keeeeev!" and putting Ukraine flags in their social media. It's like they all got a firmware update over the course of a single weekend.

[@ronaledoexciacontracor]

Hello. I would like to be in your show one day. I just was in a Spanish language show a few days ago (El Canal del Coronel) with over 300K views. Please let me know. Thank you

[@krazyswede11]

The US military is a paper tiger. The US military has been hollowed out with expensive shiny systems

[@taijistar9052]

Now I know where are the war mongers!

[@dennisleu4823]

😅😅😅😅 these people are either oblivious or delusional good luck 🤞

[@obsesivegamer]

Emily Harding 'unfair to criticize the withdrawal' ... it came late as a result of political posturing like with fortress Bakhmut .. when you have to send Special Ops into enemy lines to cover your withdrawal you were way too late making that decision when it was clear the battle was lost. We have accounts from Ukrainians that many soldiers were abandoned and left to fend for themselves

[@jesseadair8050]

So let me get this straight, according to this young lady, it's okay to spend money on foreign wars because "the money's staying here". Got it...

[@sergiomiranda1497]

You invite three people with the same opinion and call it a discussion? Lol. I support Ukraine but in this discussion not even one word about debt or how we are supposed to pay for this? Truly remarkable.