Discussing Our Tesla Valuation

Today on the show we discuss our Tesla Valuation model and how we came to our 2026 price target for a Tesla share. (Read the full valuation blog here: ark-invest.com/articles/analy...) You will hear from three analysts on how they constructed the valuation, their methodology, and what they project for 2026. Tasha Keeney shares her thoughts on why electric is the future of autonomous technology, Will Summerlin unpacks the potential opportunities for AI within foundational models, and Sam Korus explains why batteries are the single biggest cost component in Tesla’s vehicles. We also cover the results of the Monte Carlo analysis, with an overview of how it functions, and delve into the five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model. Today’s conversation offers insights into our dynamic valuation model!
Key Points from this Episode
- Introducing our latest Tesla Valuation model and 2026 price target.
- An overview of our top-down and bottom-up research methodology.
- A breakdown of Wright’s law and why it applies to battery production.
- The potential opportunities for AI within foundational models.
- Our views on why the future of autonomous driving cars is electric.
- How autonomous driving cars are expected to lower the cost of driving.
- The Monte Carlo analysis and the role it’s played in this valuation’s methodology.
- The five key inputs that are the main drivers of this model.
- How to access the valuation model on Github.
- Why the launch year and time of adoption is the single biggest driver for this model.
- Information on how to reach out to us for questions and queries on our model.
More FYI Podcasts: ark-invest.com/podcasts/
To learn more about ARK: ark-invest.com/
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94

[@fredwinslow744]

How many factors are involved in the Montecarlo input for the simulation that include 1928 style crashes that last for years? Does anyone know if they include these type of factors or is a bear a case where the bull and bass case simply just don’t occur?

[@sameerxsyed]

for Battery cost reduction it doesn't make sense to apply Wrights Law standalone without accounting for battery material limitations? can you provide your feedback on this?

[@kkvictorng2707]

Feedback for Tasha: possible to wear glasses that reduce the reflection from the lamp?

[@jlhjedi]

Aren't Raw materials projected to be at a production deficit? Won't that keep prices high for batteries?

[@HamsterHearthstone]

Your Monte Carlo model considers different variations of company fundamentals and yet it seems to output a prediction of the share price. Could you clarify how your model maps specific configurations of company fundamentals to price per share?

[@modernexistence4206]

Yearly revenue with a revenue multiple assumption based on current and/or industry related revenue multiple, outputting enterprise value, divided by total number of shares, equals share price.

[@stevedowler2366]

Tasha, how long do you see the transition period from mainly ICE mobility to mainly EV mobility? Also at what ratio of ICE to EV do we reach a tipping point beyond which acceleration increases exponentially rather than linearly?

[@stefanot502]

Hi, when an update on 3D Printing platform evolution? And also on why Desktop Metal in not in your actively manager ETFs like MKFG, VLD, SSYS ?

[@dek2000utube]

Is that assuming current dollars or is that assuming dollars in 2026 given a particular inflation rate?

[@shragerm]

2:34 "battery cost declines". ARK did you consider lithium costs have risen 300-400% recently, and whats your view on when that normalizes?

[@outsiderzedge]

Now explain GM and TDOC

[@jimbenington2144]

nice job!

[@josiahtullis6291]

what software packages is ARK using for their monte carlo simulations?

[@sariali3379]

Excel 2007

[@MrJaydalufa]

I’m curious of you considered a zero option in the input variable distribution. Not just when, or how much but “if”. Maybe a dummy variable for the bi-nary nature of some of these things. You also seem to base your analysis on the assumption that people are rational (seek to optimize their utility). Sometimes the most obvious optimized outcomes never come to fruition. I’m a huge tesla fan and have a majority of my NW invested there but cautiously optimistic! Love the Ark MO!

[@JLizard]

Tasha, Sam and William nail it here. Great summary. I think AI will have a completely different, perhaps unpredictable reception in the rest of the world. It could fly in America but hit some "theological" walls in Europe. Germany doesn't have as much say so in europe as China does in Chin- I mean Asia.

[@pwells10]

I don't know how you guys bought GM. that's very inconsistent with what the ARK team has said for the last 5 years.

[@pwells10]

and sold TSLA on the same day...

[@archiehung6361]

GM is got cruise, and robotaxi is a 11 trillion dollar market.

[@rkalla]

@@archiehung6361 they really don't - everyone is fixated on the race and not the margins that are there one they arrive. Cruze/Cruise cannot deliver $5 rides with $50k of equipment sitting on a $50k electric car.

[@xXAnthony619Xx]

The tech associated with GM is cheap by their metrics. It also fits ARKQ well which is where the shares are.

[@rkalla]

@@danchatka8613 agreed

[@soundslight7754]

Tasha is a very capable communicator and presenter, a credit to Kathie

[@BillyMauney]

Well done .. thanks for your research!

[@AntoinePirard]

Interesting! I was wondering how, if you do, assess the risk for self driving regulations as the market expends? If you do not, why?

[@josephloera7720]

I ❤ Tasha

[@jmossanen]

How do you account for the increase in input costs for the batteries? I only hear about wrights law, but no consideration for the increasing cost of the materials which are surely to increase due to immense demand.

[@johnsmith4630]

This is a great question, which i have been wondering for next few years

[@ruststar]

Battery Components cost are locked for the next four years from several suppliers under contract, price increase will be assumed by the car owner as the vehicle price will be increased. So really not important factor at all

[@Phoenix-pm2iw]

@@ruststar Agreed and will wrights law really be valid if increasing raw material costs cancel out production efficiencies and cause the price to increase? Greater demand should push raw material costs even higher, but for now, as you say, not an issue for Tesla. Car owners might not be willing to pay significantly higher battery costs, and hence vehicle costs. Real income has been sagging for years compared to house prices. Cars might become too expensive for most people. I notice that my electric lawn mower batteries replacement costs far more than gas for a gas mower. I am concerned that the same thing will happen with an electric car. Battery replacement will cost far more than the gas I would have used, even if I pretend the electricity is free to charge up my car. Car sharing seems very probable if gas powered cars are made illegal by all of our governments and electric vehicle costs are equal to more that a typical persons yearly income.

[@jmossanen]

@@ruststar From what I understand, some multi-year contracts for materials have provisions stating that some of the pricing is floating depending on market value of the input cost. It's questionable how locked in the pricing is, just because it's 4 years, that could refer to the supply contract length, but not the price per se. And some materials suppliers are seeing what's happening in the market and not foolish enough to lock themselves in for that length of time committing to a price. This is partly why we're seeing car price increases every year as the materials contracts are being renegotiated. Tesla, however, is great at reducing costs in other ways, so perhaps any material cost increases will be offset by their efficiencies with reducing parts and processes. But if you look at the battery cost charts lately, there has been an 'uptick' over the past 6 months, so its not trending clearly downward, as Ark suggests.

[@davidradtke160]

The higher material prices will increase investment in sourcing those materials and drive those prices down over time unless there is some kind of constraint that cannot be over come. Commodities have cycles. Second commodities prices are only a relatively small portion of the cost of a manufactured good like a car. It’s hard for commodities prices to over power reduced labor and capital investment relative to final cost. If 10% can of your costs double, but 70% of your costs go down by 25% your still net getting cheaper. Last not all commodities prices involved are rising rapidly. Sure lithium, cobalt and nickel are, but aluminum and Iron are not going up that rapidly. So while some price inflation is massive, other commodities inflation is much more reasonable.

[@RonVillejoConsulting]

How much, or in what ways, is ARK taking into account people’s perception of safety (or lack of it) of autonomous and EVs?

[@tianyijia4585]

I am curious of what distribution does ark assign to each random factor affecting TSLA price. The expertise should be reflected in the distributions and it will definitely influence the Monte Carlo results significantly.

[@badrekb5175]

same question i had.

[@05gauravs]

This is classic case of junk in junk out in a model. This is so funny that I don't even know where to start.

[@My_HandleIs_]

Sweet!

[@HubertHeller]

GPT3: Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 is an autoregressive language model that uses deep learning to produce human-like text. It is the third-generation language prediction model in the GPT-n series created by OpenAI, a San Francisco-based artificial intelligence research laboratory

[@RichardPeterShon]

When are you going to buy more Tesla shares?

[@Thedonron12]

The only disruptive thing about ARK is how it disrupts your portfolio.

[@arisejeff]

wowwwwww....Tashaaaa

[@DanSolovei]

Tasha is amazing!

[@stevedowler2366]

Population density of U.S. in 2020 appears to be focused in large cities and their surrounding metropolitan areas. With that assumption, a robotaxi mobility system would provide an alternative to current transport choices to the largest number of people. The further away from a metro center one lives, the lower the availability of a robotaxi becomes. Large suburban areas will need a large fleet of R-taxis while rural areas will fall below the threshold of market viability for such a fleet. This reductive effect may accelerate the current move toward a remote work model. It may also widen the social gap between users of ICE and EV vehicles in a reactive closed community way, driven by the haves and have-nots. These are longer term effects beyond the 5 year planning horizon posed by ARK. It might be appropriate to build another model for that extended time frame. Just some thoughts stimulated by your discussion, for which I thank you.

[@Fnela1]

I’m a bit lost did he say 4 mill units 2021 we already 2022 we have big reach 2 mill yet

[@donaldpoole1584]

"We use Wrights Law". (Because Cathy told us to)

[@jambagestalten4713]

random observation: from this video they not only sound competent but also *ARK analysts are good looking* like they could be in some movie together. I wonder if Cathy has some bias and how strong it is 😉 Wanna emphasise _again_ that they sound competent and fluent in their areas, but inclination to have good looking team seems to have place.

[@LukePuplett]

Interesting that the Tesla valuation doesn't consider Optimus, which Elon thinks (on the last two earnings calls) will eclipse the car business over the long run.

[@johnsmith4630]

Probably because we dont even have proof of concept on it yet, let alone proof of scale

[@LukePuplett]

@@johnsmith4630 I agree, it should not have been factored in. It's worth bearing in mind, since it could materially impact the stock price in 5 years, by which time there'll be hope for it as a new revenue stream and some idea of capabilities and TAM.

[@investorsguidetothegalaxy]

I see a lot of headwinds for Tesla Optimus Robot. From politicians and from people in general. Maybe that's why they didn't consider it in the valuation model. Humanoids will be real, but it's up to people to how fast they will accept them. I see similar negative media coverage of optimus in the next 5 years, as it was with tesla cars that crashed all the time in the past. I'm bullish on the company, and own tesla shares.

[@Highlyskeptical]

I'm liking the mix of Ukraine news with occasional updates on the bear market

[@ba177ba18]

Bought my first Tesla 2 years ago and I am NEVER going back to gasoline cars

[@sarahb2731]

IM GOING ALL IN FOR THE MONKEY PIC ON THE WALL !!!!

[@mymodely7755]

If the supply chain could keep up I could see battery prices falling. However, everyone, including Elon, sees a battery materials shortage coming. Wouldn’t this keep prices higher, thereby slowing demand?

[@Futurama10000]

demand will only be increasing regardless of pricing. Also due to Tesla's scale they will be the cheapest in the industry when looking at competitors

[@stevedowler2366]

Does Tesla use FSD Beta data focused on the way humans operate in a real-world environment? All those pedestrians are a rich data stream that could be very useful in training the robot. This question is mainly for ARK's AI analyst. Thank you.

[@CommanderRiker0]

Again a moment of silence for those holding ARK.

[@vidainvestor]

Buy now low in 5 years to 10 the returns could be insane

[@frederickmatthews4259]

It seems to have hit resistance ... At a very low level

[@JorgeLausell]

Like for like. Comparisons are hard. The continued reliance on MSRP is decidedly not like for like. Not just trim for trim, we need driveaway price comparisons. Legacy is hiding behind MSRP. The dealership markup needs to be added in. Consider the Ford Lightning. $30,000+ markups are being reported. Yet MSRP is being used. Given that dealerships raise prices across the board, and customers have no choice to buy direct, avoid the markup, the prices used ought to be a driveaway price rather than MSRP.

[@frederickmatthews4259]

Ford has a direct from Ford program. Ford realizes dealers suck...

[@JorgeLausell]

@@frederickmatthews4259 Yeah, a program that still is only just getting some teeth! It is a start. Give that to Ford. The anecdotes are piling up with how Ford dealers are adding $30,000+ to Lightnings. Not a great move. I do root for Ford. Moreover, we need to come up with an 'off the lot' pricing system. Can't compare apples to apples when comparing MSRP.

[@mfpears]

ARK is too correct for most investors to understand

[@petermerelis]

you can lead a horse to water...

[@frederickmatthews4259]

How has that worked out so far for the majority of ARKK investors?

[@petermerelis]

@@frederickmatthews4259 the good news is that most ARK investors understand it’s a high beta/macro game on shorter/intermediate time horizons. the inflows tell the story. but sure, keep focusing on the short term and miss the boat.

[@mfpears]

@@frederickmatthews4259 what part of "5-year time horizon" do you not understand?

[@frederickmatthews4259]

@@mfpears how's the last five years turned out Mike?

[@Mrrockstarmeta]

Some graphics or presentation pls

[@kveykvabn]

Does this take into consideration a stock split?

[@atimtg]

Yes they can cover themselves by saying it included a reverse split to have it make sense.

[@timkopp9763]

Fully autonomous by 2024? How?!

[@daveb7122]

Have you seen the beta testing videos? The recent beta is really impressive

[@timkopp9763]

Yea but to be L5 will take a while. This assumes ALL scenarios have been taken into account and resolved, society has gained reasonable comfort, and also assumes regulatory hurdles have been passed, which is no small task.

[@keziasarah]

They have so much conviction - They sell tesla shares not buy at this time? I'm confused.

[@fernsmora]

They have to rebalance the portfolio. If other stocks in the portfolio loose value faster than TSLA, then they must sell TSLA and buy the other stocks. TSLA is still the largest position

[@Maravirocthegreat]

Imagine you have so much conviction in TSLA that you want it to be 20% of your portfolio. As time goes on and other stocks underperform TSLA it ends up becoming 30%. The responsible thing to do is sell TSLA shares to bring it back to 20% and add to positions of other stocks you believe are next in line to rally. That’s the logic.

[@bpo6955]

Very attractive

[@joseosorio7064]

Has nobody seen anything by Joe Justice and his experience at Tesla? I am sure most companies cannot change their output product like Tesla can. The masses get in long lines for the latest phone in the current day. They're not going to be waiting for years for any other brand to catch up to where Tesla was years ago. It takes years for those massive companies to change direction and until they manage to change the working mentality of their employees they will likely suffer with low volume sales. Just makes sense that Tesla will take a large percentage of transportation on wheels to become the energy company it is destined to be.

[@MarkStephenson2]

So many issues overlooked or not addressed. So let’s take all their timeline modeling for ‘robo-taxi’s. Take any timeline and add 1 to 2 years. They would have to go before every mayor/city council and get approvals. Have you all seen the pace at which government and bureaucracy works? They are on their timeline. Which is snails pace. They don’t care about your (or Tesla’s timeline). Because there would be many issues to work out. Insurance. Accident procedure with a robotaxi. And so many, many more. So if you think it may start to happen everywhere in 4 years, add another 2. Sure it may get in a small community quickly. But not a larger city.

[@lisa7h433]

How do you become an ARK Analyst ❤️

[@coolbluereview]

Do you have a CFA?

[@someonewhoexist]

by buying stocks that drop 80 percent

[@lemmlawyer]

@@someonewhoexist hahaha

[@lemmlawyer]

@@someonewhoexist I thought that was for Crypto analyst ;)

[@someonewhoexist]

@@lemmlawyer for both lmao

[@jasonlaboy]

My biggest thing about the robo taxis is that that cost is assuming there's unlimited road space, basically the cost is only going to go down to the point people are willing to put up with the wait times and if the roads are expanded that cost is shifted even more to tax payers or tolls. This again makes the argument that public transit will be critical for robo taxis to function and they will need to co-exist or the prices will still be really high for people.

[@raddaks2039]

Let's dig some tunnels. (Not dissing public transport, that’s good too)

[@jasonlaboy]

@@raddaks2039 tunnels for public transport would be ideal imo, tunnels cost a lot of money especially if all they move is low capacity cars.

[@MrNGTfan123]

Clicked on the thumbnail for Tasha 🥰 hot and smart is a rare combo…

[@Tinjinladakh]

I am 21 year old from remote area from Himalaya India, wish I could invest in tesla. Anyone recommendation please.

[@Crunch_dGH]

Set up a custodial Roth, so your eventual distributions will be tax free. Then $cost avg TSLA as it trends downward. HODL with diamond hands until retirement. Use your gains, until then as collateral to buy a home.

[@Tinjinladakh]

@@Crunch_dGH thanks

[@mustapha-4322]

In 2026 the price of Tesla will be around $500.

[@edreeves121]

I think 50.

[@niccolo4884]

My Monte Carlo says 5

[@carlwahlstrom]

Battery cost decline is only applicable to Tesla and not the rest of the EV market, in other words the sale increase is mostly applicable to Tesla since the other brands will be struggling IMO.

[@ildeupereirafilho4247]

Don't you guys utilize discounted cash flow model to do the valuation of the companies you invest? just a Monte Carlo simulation with 38 variables? what about balance sheet and forecast cash flow analysis? What's the impact of higher interest rates in your model, which fed funds and treasury curve are you applying in your model?

[@tjlawless8588]

As if any of that stuff works 😂 You cannot predict the future.

[@ildeupereirafilho4247]

@@tjlawless8588 definitely no one can, however monte carlo simulation with a bunch of variables might be a worse way to forecast the price of a company than the usual discounted cash flow model, which also can be applied monte carlo simulation to the variables of the valuation model... I'm curious to find the impact of higher interest rates to Ark's model, as they are keeping the same stock price target with different monetary policy environment... Any time I watch junior analysts from Ark talking I add to my short Ark!

[@tjlawless8588]

@@ildeupereirafilho4247 lol, thats why I was here, now I’m shorting Tesla to 100$ 😂

[@05gauravs]

@@tjlawless8588 I am not bold enough to short Tesla, but I certainly think these people are delusional to say the least. Moreover, I am just curious, what makes these people expert in AI, Automation, etc.? I believe these are very difficult topics that nobody has high level of expertise on, let alone most of these people almost looking like kids.

[@k-jax3533]

I hold ARKK and am losing faith. Tesla is solid, but why GM? All of the talk about Tesla being ahead in battery production and AI chip is out the window with GM. Also, If I believe in the "5 year plan", then why does ARKK keep moving out of holdings and into new ones? If the answer is to preserve equity, where was this strategy a year ago (before the down turn). Overall, it seems like Cathie is too early in her predictions....

[@jimbob483]

The next 1-2 yrs will see a rapid rise in production of relatively lower cost ev's across the board. Do with that info what you will.

[@somethingginterestingg4275]

It's such a tiny part of their portfolio. Idk why everyone is making such a big deal about it

[@k-jax3533]

@@somethingginterestingg4275 It's because the narritive was Innovation vs. old school (GM&Ford). They are contradicting themselves.

[@jacksonclaflin]

Craaaaassssshie woooood

[@TheTruthWholeTruthNothingButTh]

That would have been great if some guy was railing his girlfriend on one of those balconies for like 20 min in the background LOL

[@jakob4585]

She says “All passenger vehicles will be electric” in the future. If everyone’s using the grid to charge their vehicle how are we gonna have capacity for that?

[@raddaks2039]

Solar and grid storage is a big area Tesla (and a lot of other companies) are pushing for. Also consider that grid usage is not flat; usage is low at night, when most cars will be charging. That's not to say that capacity will not be a problem, but it's one that is already being worked on and is expanding rapidly already.

[@skinnymoonbob]

Valuations are hugely dependent on macroeconomics, therefore no future valuation is reliable at all. I do like Tesla a lot, and it is my main holding, but price targets for the next years are more like fiction than fact. It will be the biggest company in a few years, but nothing can be said about its valuation. Yes I believe robotaxis will become a big thing, perhaps the biggest in a decade, with Tesla as the dominant player, but you can’t make these hard assumptions with regards to timelines in a valuation model.

[@jacksonclaflin]

In the short run? yes macro has a impact. In the long run things even out and GDP grows steadily. Please look back at history when people also said "valuation doesn't matter" and the subsequent results.

[@MrFaw1979]

we need a new one

[@ARKInvest2015]

We published ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2027 on April 20: ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027/

[@MrFaw1979]

@@ARKInvest2015 yes, but we love it when you also discuss it

[@jays2676]

Didn't ARK just sell more TSLA shares recently?? Day trading or investing?

[@mrfrugal1091]

They run an ETF and each position needs to keep it balanced.

[@jays2676]

@@mrfrugal1091 This is why u just invest in the top few companies in an ETF, instead of the ETF itself because the top holdings outperform the ETF

[@jays2676]

TSLA outperforms so it becomes a bigger %

[@mrfrugal1091]

I am heavily invested in Tesla and keep buying more shares :)

[@AliBooondok]

@@jays2676 that is not a factual statement. That is your assumption. It may be correct sometimes, but it’s not certain. Stop acting as if it’s certain.

[@johnsmith4630]

I see they left the comments enabled in vid featuring tasha hmmmm.

[@sonofabutcher7003]

I keep hearing that costs for EV’s will be declining and soon there will be price parody with ICEV’s. In reality while it appears costs to manufacture EV’s have been declining the savings aren’t being passed down to the consumer…EV vehicle cost for the consumer continues to increase rapidly and substantially to the point where EV ownership is now out of the realm of possibility for myself personally.

[@TSLApilot]

The cost of goods sold for TSLA is going down due to scale. The sale price of TSLA is going up due to demand exceeding supply plus TSLA having to price in an unknown amount of inflation for cars that will be delivered in 6-12 months.

[@gjermundnorumbugge7373]

Yes. The reason for this is simple. Demand. If the demand was not there the price would be cheap

[@josephreinard2373]

🤦‍♂️

[@sonofabutcher7003]

demand will delay price parody and the timeframe for the shift to sustainable energy.

[@gjermundnorumbugge7373]

@@sonofabutcher7003 No it won't. Demand can not delay it. that makes 0 logical sense. It is delayed by bottlenecks such as production and chip shortage, but the demand is overwhelming. The shift is sped up by demand

[@myronp243]

Warren Redlichdi did an in depth revue with someone by the name of Alexandria. I sold all my ARK shares because of ARK's explanation of what their reasons were.I lost all trust when they used a Monti Carlo model

[@mfpears]

What problems do you think Monte Carlo is a good method for?

[@momoftwom8343]

It’s all based on their input assumptions

[@05gauravs]

@@mfpears There is nothing wrong with the Monte Carlo Simulation methodology. The issue can be with the assumptions that people use before applying the simulation. There is a saying between statisticians about garbage in garbage out for models. This seems to be a classical case of that, considering majority of the revenue or the Market Cap is expected from the autonomous driving related assumptions. All I can say is 2026 is not too far.

[@billthebuilder1579]

Once you drive an EV you will never go back. I have a late 2021 Model Y. I am on a 42,464 mile per year pace at 7 1/2 mos. This pace will drop when I get my Cybertruck hopefully in 2024? I am way down the list. My neighbor took delivery of his Model Y shortly after I got mine. I saw a Rivian Truck leaving the neighborhood last week. I am looking forward to a full size SUV EV like my Cadillac Escalade.

[@frederickmatthews4259]

Have an order for the Rivian SUV. Can't wait.......Tesla will have a mighty tough time in the next few years with VW and other big players coming fast....

[@billthebuilder1579]

@@frederickmatthews4259 except they will not make money until they build giga factories fully automated. Tesla is 10 years ahead of them and gaining .

[@imbeaug74]

I can afford a 30k ICE car, I can't afford a 75k Tesla.

[@Alex29713]

The price will come down

[@arquita]

As gas goes up, ICE vehicles will also be more expensive in the long term. Also, China is already producing cheap EVs. Probably China will become the next country to flood the US with good quality low autos just like Japan did in the 80s.

[@thosoz3431]

I dont get it. You get a loan for the difference and pay it off with the money you don't spend on fuel. You end up with a car that's worth more than you paid for it.

[@sliceofheaven3026]

Assuming that Tesla doesnt have any potential competitors who might overtake it in some areas is for me a pretty major flaw in this model if it mostly assumes that Tesla will be able to keep that competitive edge going in all of its car based products. Kodak, IBM and Nokia for example want to say hi to the model. Those multiple datapoints also wont help a lot if they are given pretty optimistic basic values for the most part. 2k per stock as a bear case option sounds still pretty optimistic to me personally.

[@IM-gc1vp]

Lol all these retail investors pumping Tesla thinking it's 'great value' at $750 🤣. While Elon's trying to extract billions of shares 'to buy twitter"

[@mikelCold]

60% for robotaxi is just too much, people like to drive their own car and there will absolutely be enough people who want to buy their own car regardless of the savings of using a robotaxi even if it is the same experience.

[@flipper6480]

2:15

But Tesla is not the Marketleader in AI etc. , only in electric cars.

[@raddaks2039]

idk man my car drives itself. It's pretty good AI if you ask me

@@raddaks2039 it is the "good enough" approach ... anyway there are a lot more companies which have higher developed ai. The "data" mentioned by the analysts could be good, if collected correctly, but it also could just be a lot of noise. No one knows if the data is actually highly relevant data.

[@jdelacruz6854]

What average person in the US can afford a car >$40k? I don’t see how anyone is going to come up with a $20k electric car by 2013.

[@transendre1]

Buy Used electric cars

[@jupiterjames4201]

WATCH ROB MAURER's CRITIQUE OF YOUR MONTE CARLO - FFS

[@robert.2730]

GO TESLA GO 🚀🚀🚀😀👍🏻

[@Tinjinladakh]

Tasha is beauty with intelligent.

[@James-cq9dp]

Damn Will, you gotta get some sleep bro.. don't worry tesla isn't going anywhere, it will be there in the morning

[@Riceblox2000]

I can’t wait until used Tesla 3’s are affordable.

[@enr3334]

Way too optimistic re robotaxi!

[@harryaxe5167]

Keep in mind that much of the world countries have no electric infrastructure. And much of the world's families are living in multifamily housing and have no access to charging centers. Also, some of the metal's used in electric batteries, some (Cobalt) is mined in the Congo using black slave labor.

[@Micha.Stocks]

Tasha and team - would live to have you for a conversation on my YT channel on the topic. Its the #1 viewed for Hebrew speaking investors. I can explain Tesla very well but hearing from amazing people like you would be even better. WDYT?

[@philh1245]

I cut lawns and my total addressable market in the world is $8trillion. I am going to get it. Who wants to invest in me. 😂

[@timewrapper2602]

Elon will be distracted with Twitter and related controversy...factor that also in the model😂

[@timkopp9763]

Stop watching the news

[@jimbob483]

@@timkopp9763 It's Musk himself, not just the news. It's worked out for him thus far but methinks the winds of change be blowing in.

[@timkopp9763]

The dude has multi tasked all his life. You just happen to notice it now.

[@jimbob483]

@@timkopp9763 No, we noticed a long time ago that he is a multitasker. What we also noticed is that he's becoming seemingly more bold with his whims and less calculating and more emotional with his tweets. It's become increasingly apparent that customer loyalty is not accounted for in his playbook. There is much competition building in the EV realm. He's behaving unwisely. Erratic behavior to the extent that it affects the bottom line is unwise behavior.

[@timkopp9763]

He talked yesterday about improving the quality of the vehicle design to maximize for customer satisfaction. Additionally, idk which 10Q you’ve read, but I see Teslas bottom line only increasing lol

[@Gice-Music]

Personally I don't take advice from someone with a Bored ape portrait on the wall

[@raddaks2039]

Not a bad rule of thumb lol. Though I think it’s possible for people to be right about some things and wrong about others. It requires careful consideration.

[@Gice-Music]

@@raddaks2039 true, I hold tesla and many other stocks in Arkk and respect the Arkk team, but nft's are not it

[@peterjanoff]

Why do these three kids think autonomous driving would be such a hit? I predict autonomous could be a way of life in several decades from now, maybe. But generally not in many of our lifetimes. People actually do in fact enjoy driving. It’s that simple. They make it sound like it’ll be a way of life in a few years. God millennials are so naïve.

[@cameronvincent]

Lets gooo first

[@michaelholmes8848]

Clearly your not 👇

[@cameronvincent]

@@michaelholmes8848 look at the time of my comment and all others what do you mean

[@michaelholmes8848]

@@cameronvincent look at when wolfie comment

[@cameronvincent]

@@michaelholmes8848 21 mins is earlier the 16 mins ago

[@michaelholmes8848]

@@cameronvincent correct

[@ttarazradasdadadadad]

Are you guys serious ??!!! 4 Trillions dollars for 2026 in a high Interest rates environement ??? Even 2900 dollars is a lot for a stock like Tesla with a PE ratio of 200 (even assuming a 50% growth). Talking about Robotaxi, I don't think the business will take off on 2026, this will need a Huuuuge production to deliver customers and build the fleet. Conclusion: For the next 4 years, Tesla will still be a Car company and must be valuated as a car company ( 15 PE ratio max). I'm sur the stock will dump very very bad next Months with at least a -50%. Good luck anyway with your analysis

[@ThePeterR66]

YOU are wrong: Sad for you. Period

[@ttarazradasdadadadad]

@@ThePeterR66 If you really believe on those targets for 2026 then... Good Luck.

[@Fnela1]

When you are gonne learn that tesla is the future you hate it when was 30 buck you hate it now that is 4 k pre split and you will hate it’s when will 8x next 5 years

[@farsight42]

The PE ratio is more like 100 and decreasing quickly. Tesla is a growth stock so you need to factor in growth before comparing it with low growth companies.

[@Fnela1]

@@farsight42 no offends you need to go back to school so you can do math better

[@05gauravs]

This is such a bull considering tesla increased its prices by almost 10k last year. The gas car did not see that price rise. How the hell are we getting price parity by 2023?

[@balintg]

young cati ?

[@chaunguyen-ey7oe]

WHY YOU ARE SELLING TSLA EVERYDAY ???

[@thosoz3431]

If you paid attention you would know. Portfolio becomes unbalanced.

[@sagarmeena0210]

EV 40M sales in 2026, Is this why you guys buying GM or most of it

[@jmiogo]

Lemme guess... 5 year time frame because it's "dIsRUptIvE"

[@jeffmc9184]

😂

[@babyUFO.]

I'm sorry but twenty-five cents per mile in a robotaxi is never going to happen.

[@ThePeterR66]

Facts?

[@05gauravs]

@@ThePeterR66 Where are the facts for it happening except for a guess/wish at this point?

[@MJB0328]

Then why sell TSLA stock all the time lately? What previous qualifications do these analysts have to act as experts? Not much. Can these analysts or Ark get in legal trouble as they set unrealistic goals and majority of their stocks are deeply under water? Arkk went from 161 to 40? Is that normal for ETF? certainly shows these analysts are not correct and keeps kicking out timelines. Five years started few years ago and why is it now 2030?

[@DD-tr8do]

In 2020 - total global car sales were 74 million - so by 2026 Tesla is going to make more than half of all automobiles produced worldwide. Not taking any supply chain disruption into account, the effect that all these cars would have on the already overstretched energy grid. Guess belief is a great long-term strategy for investment - what else would anyone from a Fund say whose Portfolio's biggest stake is Tesla. Totally bonkers. Elon sold 10 billion in November at the high point - just do what Elon does.

[@frederickmatthews4259]

It would appear that these kids haven't studied history, and they definitely missed the memo on the current state of the world economy, and how it will affect demand in the next few years.

[@raddaks2039]

Ford disrupted the horse industry under difficult macro conditions. Lego (and other plastic manufacturers) disrupted the toy industry under difficult macro conditions. Poor macro environments have traditionally helped, not harmed, diruptors. That's the history I see.

[@toromontana8290]

TSLA's fair value is somewhere in the 40-50$ range. Right now you guys are paying the price that it MIGHT be worth in 20 years if nothing goes wrong. So enjoy the 0% returns, I doubt this will even beat inflation.

[@skyline2203]

you are saying tesla is worth 0.5x sales lmao, that is completely ridiculous

[@babyUFO.]

Assuming Tessa will sell its foundation model is the most absurd thing I have ever heard uttered from an arc analyst

[@aniketdeosthali765]

Elon recently stated that Tesla was very open to licensing it to other automakers

[@mik2137]

@Ufologist: Why?

[@05gauravs]

@@mik2137 because the misfit panels shows that developing technology is Tesla's moat, and not car manufacturing. However, they are just a car company in my opinion considering more than half of the Tesla's autopilot features are in my non luxury Rav4.

[@Yomamaissoo]

You lost your credibility long time ago.

[@Alex29713]

Don't confuse the business with the stock price.

[@Yomamaissoo]

@@Alex29713 don’t confuse an analyst with an apologist

[@ed2023bc]

Tesla "Valuation" LOL.