Are we risking nuclear war by supporting Ukraine?

With Naval War College Historian Sarah C.M. Paine
Full video: • Sarah C. M. Paine - WW...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple...
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Transcript: www.dwarkeshpa...

[@AlessandroMarcolin]

This lady is fantastic, I didn't know anything about her 'till a couple of days ago. I would want her as my advisor of foreign policy if I was the President of the US

[@MAC-vi7fy]

7:38 no way russia is going to be like North Korea. This lady doesnt know what she is talking about.

[@Mike-kc5ew]

@@MAC-vi7fy I think the same people would have said similar things about Venezuela, as they were very well off in the 1970's and 1980's. I think you're writing off the power of sanctions a little to nonchalantly. Also, which books have you written on the subject to show you know what you're talking about?

[@billshun3963]

⁠​⁠@@Mike-kc5ew no way u can compare Venezuela to Russia they have entirely different culture history backgrounds. Russia has been a super power for centuries and what does Venezuela have besides maybe lots of oil under their feet.

[@ivanramos1809]

@@MAC-vi7fy it already is lol

[@garyguyton7373]

@@MAC-vi7fy True, not exactly the same. More like a return to the post-WWII economic failures of the Soviets. Bad for Russia and it's people. Very Bad.

[@RanknFileX.192]

I love how Professor Paine dismisses "stupid," because, "you write off their understanding." WOW, great comment!!! Most people have a logic for their behaviour. It need not make sense to most, but there is a logic/reason/understanding in their mind, disorganized as it may be. It is "logical" from their half-assed perspective! It may be twisted, short sighted or just plain hubris, but it is a reasonable position from their POV. We can disagree, think they're, "nuts," but it is logical from their perspective. Thanks for the insight, Prof. Paine and Darkwesh! 😊

[@visvamkandadaisrinivasan5190]

I agree with this. From the Russian Identity POV, they have a inferiority complex that needs to be placated (in their case, geographic vulnerabilities and a history of being invaded). Even if we oppose their decisions (as I do), we need to understand their intention to come up with a solution.

[@therealestg9]

she's the dumbest kind of neocon

[@swift_learn]

Go ask the people in eastern Europe if their families enjoyed the gulags.

[@faizanrana2998]

Poolags

[@Rasiusas]

During Soviet rule, people were happier, there is always two sides

[@MacTac141]

@@RasiusasDid you know other people can lie too? Hell I’m the elected ruler of Mars

[@useyourbrain1539]

Go tell Russian's they've no need to fear NATO.

[@Dmytro-kt3fr]

@@Rasiusaslol, tell that to my family and most of Ukrainians, Belarusians. Tell that to families that tried to preserve national identity

[@bradjohnson4787]

You can't appease a bully intent on grabbing stuff when they think someone's weak!

[@5353Jumper]

We gave Hitler half of Czechoslovakia, and that did not "appease" the Nazi's very long.

[@r.lewisblake7793]

@@5353Jumper We?

[@isn0t42]

You push someone against the wall and call "appeasement" allowing them to breath. And when they punch you in the face, you call them a "bully". GTFO.

[@Leto2ndAtreides]

You may not want to appease one, but you also don't want to actively provoke one. One needs some awareness of how the other side is processing the world. You could hardly say that the US was being delusional during the Cuban Missile Crisis... It's not worth it to let your enemies gain that kind of position.

[@bradjohnson4787]

Russian?

[@konstantingruenwald185]

This lady is incredibly brilliant. I could listen to her talk for hours and hours.

[@traitretrudeau2367]

that the problem, people talking alone without getting counter by anyone, watch debates, not monologues

[@konstantingruenwald185]

​@@traitretrudeau2367 You’re right, no one should ever watch anything other than debates. I apologize. Next time I’ll be sure to check with you and get your approval before I watch anything else.

[@willumbermarchant5510]

Frankly unless she's willing to wrestle a 6 foot tall man, I've no interest in her opinions.

[@russellsnead3977]

The problem is she’s wrong about everything lol. She’s looking at things from a western perspective

[@therealestg9]

you must be too young to remember the Iraq War

[@placebo5466]

"Well, let's look at N. Korea. A country that has starvation in the 21st century. How did, you do it?" That made me chuckle.

[@BruceFarcau-ke7oj]

Brilliant! Speaking as a retired foreign service officer Paine has a deep understanding of international relations and the ability to explain it in layman’s terms. Just ordered her book to use in one of my classes

[@jonserrander3735]

Spot on. Supporting Ukraine is the most sensible thing to do both strategically, economically and morally. Pennies on the dollar and much better effect than any campaign during the war on terror.

[@JohnDoe-ix4kx]

Estimated deaths of 500000+, 115 Billion dollars spent so far and you say pennies on the dollar? Holy fuck man nothing about this is sensible, and that's assuming that just like the war on terror which was a massive failure that this campaign won't be one too.

[@atishayritulpatwa]

Better? Current every missle that is send to Ukraine is a missle that cannot be used in Taiwan. And Ukraine is a country that will never in future recover even if they somehow take Donbas back. Their demographics will never work, and too many have left Ukraine already.

[@mattgriewahn8554]

⁠​⁠@@atishayritulpatwawe can build more missiles and frankly, there’s no way for china to really have a successful invasion to get a toe hold on the island in the next 10 years. And Taiwan has a vested interest in repelling a Chinese invasion.

[@atishayritulpatwa]

@@mattgriewahn8554 missiles are not 1939 tanks, they can’t be build within a day. Russian took two years to ramp up their production, and Americans would take the same. And Americans have not started to ramp up their production.

[@hereLiesThisTroper]

Pennies on the dollar. The most entitled statement an American could ever say. In your smugness, you just implied that the lives of Ukrainian soldiers are worth pennies to you.

[@jku72]

One can argue that appeasement is more likely to cause a war than showing strength. Ask Neveile Chamberlain about what a signed peace agreement by letting an authoritarian government have its way was worth.

[@rossicourvosi218]

Chamberlain knew a war was happening he just brought Britain more time to ready up

[@madarah8533]

@@rossicourvosi218 lol thats not at all what happend

[@rossicourvosi218]

@@madarah8533 read his biography

[@stevechance150]

If Russia takes Ukraine, Putin will move on Poland. Poland has bombers that can reach Moscow. How will Poland respond to Russian troops crossing into Poland?

[@andrewbachman698]

Chamberlain was in a much more severe bind than people realize. 1. Britain wasn’t ready for all out war(Germany wasn’t either but they were ahead of Britain) and more importantly the Dominions would not support War. Canada was lukewarm at best, so they may not join, and S. Africa and Australia were completely opposed(see Gallipoli if you want to know why). So Chamberlain went to the peace talks with his hands tied behind his back he could be the PM that appeased Hitler or the PM that shattered the British Empire. He chose the former.

[@__scottvg]

“Starvation in the 21st century? How DID you do it?” 😂

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

Well, how did western countries bring global south to starvation going in to 21 century, for hundreds of years now?

[@rayray0313]

The way she said it lol😂

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

@@rayray0313 you mean how did global west put great chunk of global south into powerty for centuries to this day?

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

@@rayray0313 how did 20% of global population (west) put 80% of global population( south) in poverty for hundreds of years to this day?

[@shitsmells]

@@zivaradlovacki2666 we found you in poverty, developed the industrial revolution which enriched us, then shared those technologies with the rest of the world who are struggling to catch up due to endemic corruption, bad civics and bad ethics.

[@alfredzig2035]

This woman absolutely understands her stuff.

[@chrismiller5198]

I agree that we shouldn't tiptoe around Putin's personal hangups about the West and America.

[@xxyyzzplants131]

maybe that's why she teaches at the War College.

[@kevinharrigan2727]

My girlfriends dad is from Belarus. He fled as soon as the Soviet Union fell, and he has given me a much greater appreciation for the tenacity and sheer grit of our Eastern European brothers, a grit I haven’t seen in very many demographics of traditional Western peoples and a grit I think we should absolutely appreciate here in America and the rest of the West. I would happily, happily fight alongside them if war were to break out. I hope Ukraine wins this war, they’ve proven themselves to be incredibly opposed to Russian aggression and have shown their willingness to fight and figure out creative solutions to adapt to the modern battlefield, and I hope we can continue to support them.

[@TDH_1962]

War has broken out... And I hear Ukraine is desperate for recruits. Do it. Or are you just a blowhard coward?

[@marcob.7801]

Right on brother! Slava Ukraine!

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

​@@marcob.7801bandera salute suits ya. Keep it up.

[@zivaradlovacki2666]

You should go and fight now. Why wait? Quick wile your life is still worth 1 dollar and Ukrainian 1 penny. Does it feel good your life is worth that much more?

[@marcob.7801]

@@zivaradlovacki2666 It's a turn of phrase! Anyone with a sane mind, an understanding of greedy human nature and even a remote knowledge of pre and post WW2 era history does not want Ukraine to founder. When she says "pennies on the dollar"...she is referring to the MOST pragmatic and logical solution to Ukraine's ( and, IMHO, the world's)....immediate need! Don't take everything so literally! Think realistically, not ideologically. In essence, grow up!

[@carlanderson7618]

The Ukraine is this centuries Sudetenland. Surrendering the Ukraine will only lead to more conflict not less. Just as the Munich Betrayal of 1938/39 did not lead to peace but war.

[@cedricvogt2576]

wroong...Putin is not Hitler...

[@carlanderson7618]

@@cedricvogt2576 Enough similarities to make the comparison. Hitler made the excuse for taking Sudetenland to protect ethnic Germans , Putin claims to want to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Hitler had political opponents killed or put into concentration camps, Putin has political opponents killed or put into Gulags, Hitler wanted and empire, Putin wants to re-establish one. Hitler was diagnosed as a psychopath, so is Putin. Only difference is the political ideology they use to commit their crimes, like Hitler and Stalin were more similar than different. In reality NAZI fascism and communism are two sides of the same coin.

[@cedricvogt2576]

@@carlanderson7618 dont be so intellectually lazy. Hitler was a mad man who did not last longer than a decade to launch a huge world war. Putin on the other hand is widely regarded to be one of the best politicians (by Ray Dalio etc.)… he is in charge for decades and did not have any plans to launch a war, he wanted the same kind of military operation that worked in Georgia in 2008. He doesnt even have the ressources to conquer Ukraine, how should he attack more countries? Just fear mongering out of nonsense.

[@Notascousebird]

It’s just Ukraine !

[@elibecker8848]

​@@carlanderson7618 one major difference is that Nazi Germany was a superpower, who were able to defeat Poland and France in a matter of weeks, while Putin hasn't been able to defeat Ukraine in over two years and counting.

[@nunterz]

Thank you for not wanting to sell us out (again). An Eastern European.

[@hyiux]

Yes, they will not sell you out until they decide to sell you out. Good luck on becoming a vassal of the US.

[@MaxPayne-fi1mz]

Fight your own wars please. I don't support NATO for anyone except France, UK and maybe Germany. Others should fight their own theories. Maybe Land Lease agreements like it was in WW2. I would support such things though.

[@nunterz]

@@MaxPayne-fi1mz what do you even mean by "our own wars" and "our own theories"? What do you think these are? What do you think NATO is for and what does supporting France, UK, Germany mean for you exactly , and why do you support them while not anyone else?

[@MaxPayne-fi1mz]

@@nunterz Why shouldn't we support Pakistan against Indian aggression?

[@nunterz]

@@MaxPayne-fi1mz Pakistan is not a NATO member and nowhere near an actual NATO member. I don't even know how this question is related, unless you asked because you have no idea that Eastern Europe and Pakistan are half-world apart. Of course there could be a rationale for US intervention there but I'm not that familiar with that region's dynamics.

[@lagoonlane]

We lived with nuclear weapons for decades.

[@antonoko]

There has never been a nuclear power involved in an existential war until now.

[@infrared337]

@@antonoko Cold War era proxy wars ring any bell to you? Korean War? Vietnam? No?

[@TDH_1962]

@@infrared337 No. None of those conflicts were existential for either nuclear power

[@infrared337]

@@TDH_1962 ah you meant to the nuclear power? Ok, Cuba maybe? I don't think Ukraine being Independent from Russia poses existential threat to Russia. And if it does, that is their own internal problem.

[@infrared337]

@@TDH_1962 yes another one believing groups of Russian speaking Ukrainians magically pulled out army worth of tanks and assault rifles to start a rebellion against Ukraine with no help from Russian army direct involvement. You are a lost cause.

[@drewyoung2102]

I worked with various engineers and technical people from former East Germany. Some were fully indoctrinated and could not change and some left. No one every had anything good to say about soviets.

[@MikMoen]

American Professor: "Oh, no one's marching on Moscow." Poland: "Why not?"

[@ajez597]

I've heard a Polish military brass say in a interview that their doctrine against Russia is not only defend poland but attack Russia.

[@Komradenter]

@@ajez597 yeah after repelling Russian invasion, that makes sense.

[@V45194]

Despite Putin's hysterical squealing about "the collective West," no one really wants Russia to cease to exist. That absolutely is not what this war is about, despite %ucker Carslon and the other paid propagandists' untiring efforts to present it as such to their semi-literate totalitarian-minded audiences: retirees in rural Russia, a few fringe neonazi parties across Europe and of course the MAGA "I love the poorly educated" cult in America. No, this war is simply about the civilized world finally putting a stop to a deranged tyrant's brutal 19th-century imperialism. Nothing more and nothing less. Russia already is *quite literally the biggest empire on Earth!* Well, let them have it and do soul searching... I hear the Russian soul is great - the question is, will the Russians themselves someday find it?

[@krapfantasy]

Man I love Poland. Fascinating history. It's horrendous what the Nazis did to them, but amazing how resilliant they are. I'm going there on Monday for a study trip, mostly focusing on the holocaust, but yeah, big up Poland!

[@Oldsmobile69]

People have to understand, Nato's new members not only wanted to join, but in the case of Finland, the government was _pressured in to it_ by the people. This wasn't the elite choosing to join, this was a popular cause by a huge majority of Finns.

[@davedeville6540]

Same for Sweden. Our leftists politicians have been doing everything they can to keep us out of NATO. Lying and misrepresenting facts while trying to keep the old “capitalism and soviet socialism are equally bad” narrative alive. But Russia’s blatant aggression sobered us up and the government was forced to make a quick policy shift. It was quite embarrassing to watch the Social democrats scrambling to pretend it had been their stance all along.

[@Hexanitrobenzene]

Great guest, great question. However, I have some criticism about form. I understand the wish to shorten video, but having cuts mid-sentence just breaks the flow and makes the content more difficult to understand. Please don't cater to the mainstream mentality of social media.

[@forbeginnersandbeyond6089]

This interview is over 1 hour long without interruptions nor obvious edits. Search for it in KZbin. This clip is a snippet of that interview.

[@TomG-f4r]

Yup and shes a loaded pistol...its pretty sharp a-z

[@davidahlstrom7533]

Outstanding historian, Sarah C.M. Paine, professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. She really put in her time learning China and Chinese, Russian, East Asian history, and even Latin America (as an undergrad). Really 'paid her dues' as we say in academia. Check out her books, especially on China, Japan, and Russia -- all excellent. She understands the ground level subtleties of (and in) China especially, as few grand strategists understand. Very good KZbin videos also.

[@mercb3ast]

Yea, she's brilliant. She just conveniently forgot that NATO now harbors 7 former Axis countries, that together slaughtered 18 million Soviet Civilians in living memory. "So all of the countries that join NATO desperately wanted to join NATO, and they had a whole history of Russians doing terrible things to them". Yea, all the horrible things Russia did to them. Like forcing them to march into the Russian Empire as part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and slaughter civilians with Germany. Like forcing them to march into the USSR as part of the German Axis, and slaughter 18 million Soviet Civilians. Damn Russia, that was evil of you. You MADE them do that.

[@101wormwood]

youve got starving in the 21st century..., how did you do it? (n.korea) This woman is my hero. <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="300">5:00</a>

[@davereynolds3403]

1 in 7 kids in the USA didn’t eat today … who’s starving ?

[@johnwalsh4857]

I love Sarah Paine's books . BIG FAN

[@markbanash921]

"It's a big galaxy and it's full of people who don't like the Klingons" - Capt. Kirk, "Errand of Mercy"

[@hudooguru2]

Great exchange. Sarah is the real deal.

[@peterkratoska4524]

Whenever someone states that the West provoked Russia by expanding Nato I ask them how they would like living in a buffer state. I did, I still recall Operation Danube when I was a kid in 68 when Russia and the rest of the Warsaw Pact marched into my country with 800,000 troops because the Kremlin didn't like the shift towards a bit of freedom from the Czech govt. Hungary in 56, Poland, the Baltic countries everyone joined as soon as they possibly could. I must say Sarah Paine is really well informed on the topic and the biggest takeway is that while the West has learned that this kind of war is completely unproductive and everyone ends up worse off (this was shown in 1918, and 45) it is so much better for everyone to grow and trade and work together. Its not like the medieval wars where you take over land and end up with serfs who will give you the wealth. So much of the wealth nowadays is not in land but in the people. If Russia were to invade California and take Cupertino and Apple hq they would not gain much because the people would just leave, if Apple is worth some 2.8trillion it is in the people that work in it - not the land. So Russia gaining mostly destroyed and largely de-populated parts of eastern Ukraine- their land bridge to Crimea but at what cost. It has become an international pariah, it's lost its largest customer the EU for much of its natural gas (China will never pay as much and it would take a long time to build pipelines to ship to China. It's also lost a lot of young talented people with money who fled during the first year, not to mention a lot of young men who are dying or getting disabled - for a country with a demographic disaster. Also a GDP of 1.5trillion, less than Italy or Canada. As Sarah points out the business laws in Russia not only make it hard to run a business - it is intentionally set up that way so that at any given time the klepto state could control or seize the business. There is an issue with one man dictator ship with no real succession - and as anyone has seen the Death of Stalin - there is often chaos and a major turnaround when the leader dies. And there is no comfortable retirement for Putin. (Or for that matter Xi Jinping).

[@lightforce4604]

Yeah no one would like to stay in a buffer state perhaps, you may not even like Putin or Russia; but NATO have always been provacateur supreme. Just ask the entire Eastern Hermisphere. There is a reason why most people in the Eastern hemsiphere are more sympathetic towards Russia.

[@dannycorsaro546]

Really? We have the biggest war mongering criminals in the world.

[@vitorlopes2064]

Imagine russian nukes in Mexico. How would US react?? Nato should have been dissolved alongside the soviet union. US withdraw from 2 major missile agreements unilateraly. The Russians are freaking out

[@peterkratoska4524]

@@vitorlopes2064 hey the guy who gave Nato its purpose is Putin himself. Even made Sweden and Finland join. See its nothing to do with US expansionism, every one who wanted to join Nato did so willingly the first chance they could. Everyone of those countries including mine had been invaded or occupied by Russia in the past.

[@vitorlopes2064]

@@peterkratoska4524 after the fall of the soviet union NATo became just a big US weapons sale plattform and instrument of control. Lets not forget what nato did in the middle east and yogoslavia… was it ” defensive”?

[@joedavis1404]

Sarah C. M. Paine, thank you for your clear insight.

[@Lurreable]

"You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war." - Winston Churchill on Chamberlain appeasing Hitler, before WW2

[@krakhedd]

I disagree w/ Sarah that "calling somebody stupid is writing off their reasoning" as why Putin won't use nukes. I think he will and I agree w/ Dwarkesh that we cannot simply believe he won't because *WE* fail to conceive a strategic return if *WE* were in his shoes. THIS IS ALSO NOT WARRANT TO LET HIM HAVE WHAT HE WANTS, but to clarify and illustrate a serious mistake we often make in the West: We try to put others into our own understanding, rather than vice-versa

[@lightforce4604]

The most stupid implication she made is that Russia is going towards North Korea. Which is just sheer decietful propaganda with someone from her qualification.

[@Uller1967]

@@lightforce4604 Is Russia more or less authoritarian now than they were 15 years ago? Is Russia more or less isolated now than they were 15 years ago? I think that's what she is referring to when she said Russia is going towards N Korea.

[@V45194]

​@@lightforce4604 I mean, who is supplying the Kremlin gnome with arms these days, aside from the Ayatollah? Why, Fat Kim, of course!

[@roadent217]

"I think he will and I agree w/ Dwarkesh that we cannot simply believe he won't because WE fail to conceive a strategic return if WE were in his shoes." Ok... then please explain to me the strategic return of having Moscow, St. Petersburg, Russia's entire historical legacy and Putin's entire private wealth glassed by a retaliatory nuclear strike.

[@jackpaperhands]

this lady is a legend

[@jjhoughton2812]

To ?

[@moiseshuerta3984]

She's a a hack.

[@victorgalloway9770]

Facts she is 💯

[@cl5619]

She seems to be a neo con supplying the rationale for US interventions

[@nephalynzit]

She is 100% propagandist

[@squireson]

No, no, what Russia has *_described_* as provocation doesn't mean that they see it that way. They react to actions by the West *as deterrence* _that they don't want._

[@mercb3ast]

You can't take the effect, and make it the cause. Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia, all members of the Axis. All participated and or aided and abetted the killing of 27million Soviet Citizens including 18m+ civilians. They watch as these countries join yet another anti-Russian alliance for the third time in 100 years. "deterrence". Bro, why are you offended by the armed fence I am building around your house! We're peaceful! This is a defensive tank I'm pointing at you! Apparently Russia had the audacity to build their country next to our hostile military alliance!!! 18 million civilians, slaughtered. That's what the members of NATO did to Russia in living memory. What did Russia do to them again? Explain? Tell me. EIGHTEEN MILLION CIVILIANS.

[@jojoohyeah4761]

@@mercb3astu say that like most of NATO did that to the Russians. It was the Germans. Also, they weren’t all only Russians. There also Ukrainians, Belarusians, Georgians, Armenians, Latvians Lithuanians and Estonians, etc that all suffered immensely from the war. Yet Most of those countries STILL decided to join NATO or want to or don’t like Russia. Why is that?

[@eckhardt76]

Protect this woman at all costs ! God bless her.

[@joestrat2723]

What a great speaker this woman is. I agree with her on the nuke threat. Putin has all the power, money, women, and palaces he could ever want. 30 minutes after he launched a nuke he'd either be a grease stain on Red Square, or Tsar of his nuclear bunker in Siberia....and not much else.

[@hyiux]

We'll have another clown who will be the president of his nuclear bunker in Idaho or somehwere like that. You wanna risk it? Do you feel lucky, punk?

[@michaeldonnelly6747]

I like this woman!

[@jacobasselta2419]

Really, ask this question is it in Americas best interest to defend one dictatorship the size of Texas (Ukraine) if it means destabilizing a continent sized power (Russia) into civil war. Look how much the Syrian civil war and infighting in Iraq after our intervention in those countries, or us meddling in Iran before the revolution has upset the middle east. Do we really want an unstable Russia? Is another Russian revolution/or civil war in our interest? How radical will they become after another round of revolution/civil war, look how the treaty of Versailles (no one marched into Berlin) which was in modern day terms just sanctions and guilt led to Nazi Germany and the evils they unleashed upon humanity. In a post communist Russian age with an ever present threat of communist China, is it really smart to push Russia into Chinas arms and into their camp. Or, is it wiser to set clear boundaries with but treat Russia as an equal to work together in the future in surrounding China and North Korea with Western states. Or should we risk a destabilized Russia which will inevitably cause more destabilizing in surrounding areas due to their size and influence over Ukraine which is not a real democracy and poses no benefit to the American order. Just a thought.

[@r.lewisblake7793]

@@jacobasselta2419 Think harder. You first attempt (ever?) Is sorely lacking in intelligence. Hopefully, (for all concerned) if you keep trying, you may get it one day. Can’t debunk each and every one of your Phuhuqed up beyond belief assumptions, because,…….they are without basis in reality. But your valiant effort to make them seem correct,……yeah, that failed too. Your caretaker must be so……🤦🏾‍♂️

[@aryzen2781]

@@jacobasselta2419 yes

[@yeetman4953]

​@@jacobasselta2419i stopped readi g when you said china was communist, get your shit together.

[@yeetman4953]

​@@jacobasselta2419ukraine is still a democracy.

[@scottyboy60098]

Ms Plaines clarity of world view and concise explanations are refreshing and enlightening. Thanks for interviewing her.

[@edytapanasiuk6059]

I am glad to know that there are people in the West who think like this lady.

[@NiklasAndersson7]

I'm gonna watch every KZbin-clip with this woman. She is incredible. Why haven't I discovered her before?

[@rustywater3219]

Are russian nukes even still able to go off? Have they been keeping up with maintenance or are they like the rest of their military?

[@SkywalkerPaul]

Didn't you watch the last nuclear triad test Russia conducted?

[@Victor-ov7hw]

You really want to find out?

[@sH-ed5yf]

Most of them yes. Are the russian ones cspable

[@damonedrington3453]

To be fair, I’d assume that’s one of the few things they genuinely try to maintain

[@jamesw1659]

@@SkywalkerPaulthat just means they could make a new bomb…it doesn’t really say anything about the thousands of old ones in inventory.

[@raygalloway5408]

He can’t be that big of fool. If you use a nuclear weapon, the land is useless. You have nuclear fallout that may blow back on himself, cross borders, no wind situation. Endgame.

[@esteemedyams]

Thank you, this is 100% spot on and needs to be said and heard over and over until we don't have any more 'Marjorie Traitor Green' type characters in the world.

[@jamesw1659]

Because Marjorie Taylor Green disagrees with you doesn’t make her a traitor. A lot of people are asking the same questions she is, and I don’t see why that isn’t legit. The word “traitor” is being overused a lot today, sort of like “racist”. Eventually, if it keeps up, it will become meaningless…

[@marcob.7801]

t is

[@docbradleydc]

​@@jamesw1659 It goes a bit beyond simple disagreement. She called for the execution of Democrat politicians and a national divorce.

[@tonyennis1787]

@@jamesw1659 great comment. "Everyone I don't like is Hitler"

[@endcensorship874]

I've watched a few videos from this brilliant woman recently. I had never heard of her, and I look forward to reading a book or two from her this winter. Winter's my "reading season."

[@jimispoto8438]

Not trying to defend North Korea But we do have active sanctions and trade embargo with them which may have something to do with their starvation problem.

[@asterixdogmatix1073]

No, Kim's regime focusing on a military economy at the expensive of its civilians has caused starvation.

[@stephenmontague6930]

Well said - I have to wonder what's worse - a short, decisive war (using all tools available, like in the Pacific War with Japan) or a 70 year siege, like we've had with Korea - and while we can claim less direct violence for the latter, so far, the real cost is still high, with an unknown end. Granted, to win by total war now may mean WW3, something we've been doggedly avoiding, yet the longer we've avoided this worst case scenario, the higher the stakes have grown, to the point where we think WW3 is unimaginable, but for those who've long been under siege, such may not be unimaginable. In any case, governments in Korea, Iran, Russia, etc. have shown they are willing and able to pay a harsh human price to remain in power and defy pressure. The argument seems to be that sanctions work, because they make the enemy poorer, less capable, and possibly miserable - thereby serving as a deterrent to others while encouraging reform, all without starting WW3. It's not clear to me though that WW3 will forever be avoided via sanctions, or that more decisive wars would certainly end worse. Moreover, if one side does commit to war, war becomes unavoidable and sanctions fall short, as shown in Ukraine and Israel. It's a very difficult question, for each conflict region, on how best to proceed, and answers that worked before may not work later - we must continue to weigh and judge.

[@jimispoto8438]

@@asterixdogmatix1073 The US spends trillions on weapons while its population starves

[@friendofcoal]

She's 10000% correct......!!!!!!!

[@parkerhanson4009]

Brilliant! Will be watching more S.C.P.

[@marshatolbert154]

I really enjoyed listening to Dr. Paine. Mr. Patel was brave to interview her, since she is clearly rungs above him intellectually. He would do well to expand his frame of reference and worldview.

[@seanbrennan5192]

Protect this woman at all costs!

[@EddieWeeks]

I don't know who that Lady is, but I like her... Very clear and logical.

[@silentblackhole]

This should be required viewing for anyone taking part in the future of ukraine, yes this includes leaders in the USA

[@mercb3ast]

Yea, cause then we can continue to ignore what Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia, Finland, Germany, and Italy did to the USSR in WW2. "Russia did horrible things to these countries". Yea, Russia did terrible things, they forced the Axis, of which all of those countries were either full members of, or allied to (Finland), to march into the USSR and slaughter 18 million civilians, and a total of 27 million citizens. Or we could go back to WW1, where many of those countries were in part, or wholly part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Which as an ally of Germany, participated in the WW1 version General Plan Ost under General Ludendorff, where Ludendorff undertook a campaign of genocide against the Slavic people of the Russian Empire in an effort to found a German state in the region. Most of Romania, all of Hungary, most of Bulgaria, most of Slovakia, part of Poland and Germany all participated in this as well. How dare the Russians force Central and Eastern Europeans to INVADE THEM, and MASSACRE them. Rude people dontcha think?

[@jeannecastellano7181]

Dr. Paine is simply brilliant! She's so knowledgeable about Eastern Europe and China. Please have her back.

[@mackiej]

The impact of using a nuke on global nuclear arms proliferation is a very important point.

[@micskovbon5738]

No its not, only in propaganda use.

[@gwapod9885]

This is the only person I have heard on media that speaks the truth the way I have experienced it for the past 60 years on this planet. Glad to know there are people out there that know the truth.

[@pcopeland15]

Listen to the people affected. Thank you. Not doing so is by definition imperialism. Lines on maps drawn by outsiders.

[@cl5619]

😅 It’s always the 1930s before World War Two for you global intervenionalists. We are always at risk of being next Neveile Chamberlain if we don’t intervene. The adversary is always the next Evil Super Villain. (20 years ago it was Saddam Husain; today it’s Putin) The Evil Super Villain is always harboring super evil plans to take over the world or something. And we American citizens are always on the hook to pay for it.

[@markberman6708]

Prof Paine is fantastic!!

[@aSSGoblin1488]

we may be risking nuke war but its russia who started this risk

[@pomka24]

in general, the West has always been the cause of wars, and the United States used nuclear weapons in Japan, and also planned to use them in Korea and Vietnam, but pressure from the Soviets stopped them 🤫

[@moiseshuerta3984]

Who cares who started it? Ukraine definitely aint worth a nuclear holocaust.

[@antonoko]

Right, moral victories like this will surely matter when everything's turned to dust.

[@ABanRocks]

US started this by trying to.get Ukraine to join NATO

[@ИгорьСамойленко-р4щ]

Gorbachev received assurances, that a united Germany will be the last expansion from the NATO in the East direction. No one knows why he hadn’t received it in written, it’s the history now. In 90s the Russian political elites and even Yeltsin were against NATO expansion. In 2004 Putin was against another round of it. In 2007 he asked for respect of the Russian security in context of Georgia, Ukraine and anti-missiles system close to Russia. Given the history of Europeans invasions in Russia, casualties and devastation they caused, should Russia just rely on the Western promise? I guess not, Ukraine in NATO was a real red line, for which Russia is ready to fight. And maybe die (hopefully, not, because it won’t let the victors enjoy their victory).

[@rhettb0683]

This sub nine minute conversation actually changed my mind on the US intervening in Ukraine. She makes a compelling case.

[@sergiyrospysdiyenko6224]

When US was at war with Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, no one asked this question?!

[@thebadstation8416]

America did no go to war with afghanistan. They were fighting terrorists im the country of afghanist which the country supported. Same thing in syria. America did go to war with iraq which is true and i will admit did not so good things.

[@puraLusa]

False equivalence. 1. American war in vietnam is equivalent to russian assitance to syrian regime. 2. American war in afghanistan - 9/11 was a response to an attack. 3. American war with iraq- sadam started it with war on neighbours who were american allies. This narrative is the "muah murica bad" which removes agency on other parties in the world stage (racism of low espectations).

[@philognosis6409]

​@@puraLusaKuwait did actually steal 50 Billion in oil from sovereign territory of Iraq and the United States gave the green light before Saddam attacked. But later the invasion in the new millennium was on knowingly false pretenses and they prevented Antibiotics for reaching Iraq. Lately United States has pretended that just crazy people in Yemen are attacking US shipping. When you deliberately create a famine by preventing imports of grain properly paid for to feed civilians people tend to hate you. Oh and preventing insecticide for the purpose of not having a plague of locusts was a nice touch.

[@cathulionetharn5139]

​@@puraLusa 1.not really, it was more like supporting british in the american war for independence Vietnam was a colony of France, imperialist France, we-consider-your-culture-and-religion-inferior-and-will-civilize-you-by-force France, your-resources-are-ours France, it was also really badly done, the guy americans put in charge of southern vietnam was a catholic monk who had no desire or drive for leadership, and was a symbol of the forced conversion of the people to christianity. Nothern Vietnam became communist because capitalists were fighting them and communists were willing to support them, not the other way around. 2.taliban had nothing to do with 9/11, in fact similarly to the vietnamese, the taliban formed to oppose soviet occupation of afghanistan, and to them (and many afghani) americans were just another foreign empire invading their homeland and forcing their values and culture on them, also: here we built your village a well, surely that makes up for a third of it being destroyed by our bombing runs? Also the war in Syria? it is one thing to fight terrorists, it is another to have an entire military base sit there and watch as an ancient city full of history and culture dating back well before Christ, is being bombed by the terrorist you are supposed to fight until eventually the Syrian military is forced to abandon it, to those very terrorists you are supposed to fight, all the while a conversation leaks, where one the generals in charge of the war says something along the lines of: let's see if this forces the syrian government to the negotiating table. Which by the way, pick a side, is the Syrian government a brutal regime with no care for it's people and supposedly commits genocide on them, or are they going to accept american terms (because that is what negotiation means let's be frank) to save their people Let's not forget that Isis is destroyed, Trump ordered the pentagon generals to withdraw from Syria (which they PRETENDED to do, but not really, to keep the troops there until Biden came in) where a third of the country is occupied, oh look, 100% of the oil fields in Syria are in that occupied region, and an American company is drilling the oil I have this sinking feeling if I read more into the Iraq war I would find out it was nowhere near as black and white either

[@puraLusa]

@@cathulionetharn5139 have no pacience for a long essay based on a false permisse. Vietnam - france had left - had a democratic gov in the south and a commie one in the north - south asked usa for help. Syria - france had left - socialist gov in southwest - several factions all over (civil war) - asked russia for help. So, my example fits perfectly and doesn't need false permisse and mental ginmastics.

[@izabelamsztuka7297]

She is about the only person knowledgable to speak on the topic. And whatever she said last year aged exactly the way she predicted.

[@XerxesDotiwalla]

Wait, where is the answer to the question about nuclear war?

[@DSan-kl2yc]

That we don't decide how Russians interpret things. And it wouldn't be right to deem eastern Europeans worthless, and sacrifice them for it. Also that it's unlikely.

[@indefatigable8193]

“Broader considerations” The same logic that allows us to see the evil in all corporations but the good in dictatorships.

[@Btdenn123]

This really ignores 2014 to the day Russia invaded. She was probably shocked Russia invaded based on how she's reasoning. Choosing standard of living over culture is how Americans think..... it's not necessarily the priorities of other countries/cultures/people.

[@rbarnes4076]

Seriously? She described Russian power dynamics VERY accurately.. she does it EVERY time she talks about how Eastern Europe has essentially been driven into the arms of Nato because of past Russian aggression. Russian behavior both recently and in the past is proof they are not to be trusted. Don't confuse Russian maskirova with reality. I can absolutely guarantee that Ms. Paine doesn't confuse those two. How you missed this is well beyond me.

[@2639theboss]

It wasn't an American strategy? It was a German one? It even has a name, Wandel durch Handel. I love how stupid people think it's a uniquely American thing to be domestically selfish, or oblivious to differences in cultural attitudes or priorities.

[@5353Jumper]

Well, not necessarily the priority for LEADERS of other counties.

[@mikedeck8381]

Truth be told people in Eastern Europe have despised the Russians for centuries, they've fought loads of wars over the centuries. It really doesn't have anything to do with the US and we need to be careful about getting involved but that ship has sailed. What this war is really about is the Russian oil, natural gas as well as the resources of Central Asia. From what I see Russia is winning the economic war and the US position isn't really feasible in the long run. Keeping Eastern European countries as vassal states has no economy to it for the US or them. It makes sense for Western Europe but they don't have the resources to support them.

[@Kevin-vx8qe]

Do you really think ordinary russians or Chinese to choose the priorities of their governments?

[@300gjw]

I can listen to her talk all day. She is incredibly bright and well spoken.

[@grantsapain]

That's what Russia wants us to think.

[@ruslanustiuhov5510]

I like this phrase “Pennies on the dollar”. That is how human lives cost right now.

[@gintasvilkelis2544]

You've completely misunderstood what she said here.

[@waynedavis6851]

I'm not, by a long shot, as knowledgeable as her but I follow things in the world and delve into history. I find I agree 100 % with the assessments she makes. There is an admirable hard-core logic that cuts through the madness. I too just discovered her and plan to look deeper into her work.

[@biggiouschinnus7489]

Love how Dwarkesh literally tries every possible way he can to justify being nice to Russia; as others have pointed out, I doubt he'd be saying the same if India were getting invaded by China!

[@Victor-ov7hw]

Is not being nice is PUTTING YOURSELF on the opposite point of view. People like you, that hate Russia, or china or whoever the media tells you to hate for whatever reason are incapable of doing that

[@stellis69]

Prof. Paine is a savage. I can't get enough of her.

[@frankfowlkes7872]

I find it interesting that many of the same people that hate Putin and the Russian model seem to be willing to give China a pass. I do believe Ms. Paine is correct about using the Ukrainians as proxies for our troops but I am perplexed by the fact we seem afraid to offer the same assistance to Taiwan.

[@stevenroberts5893]

Wow love to hear her !!!!!

[@cb2291]

If India was getting invaded by Chinese or Russians then Dwarkesh would be singing a different tune lmao

[@stc2828]

lol it’s called border dispute, Chinese think India is invading their land 😅

[@AnotherComment-rl6fv]

this lady needs to have a self reflection, US has been trying to be a continental empire, from presence and bases in ME, SEA, Latin America and EU, printing dollars.

[@dillamadukes21]

@@stc2828 China's territorial claims are especially comical, given that they're claiming the territory of a county they conquered (aksai chin, sikkim and other territories belong to Tibet. We conquered Tibet, therefore this territory 1000 miles away from our civilizational core is sovereign Chinese clay). Russia's revanchist behaviour has been contemptible, but the Chinese are easily the most territorially ambitious great power on the planet today.

[@stc2828]

@@dillamadukes21 India territorial claims is even more comical , “British conquered this land therefore it belongs to India” Maybe India should respect Sikkim’s sovereignty and give their independence back first 😀

[@yeetman4953]

​@@stc2828wait wasnt sikkim interageted with a vote?

[@ReasonableHuman1]

Putin always wants to get more. He sees 'collective' West is weak and bureaucratic. Therefore we, in my mind, need to keep helping Ukraine. Otherwise, he will conclude that he was right all alone.

[@virtualinfinity6280]

Good video with solid reasoning. However, she fails to acknowledge the fact, that the reason for east-europes economic growth is due to EU memberships and the associated economic help. I think that shows, how valuable the EU is and how important tight economic integration goes. To me, despite its difficulties, the EU is a success story.

[@tinylazer]

The EU only exists because most of its members belong to NATO. The EU is still incapable of having a unified defence against Russia.

[@markwhisler3501]

"Starvation in the 21st century. How DID you do it?" made me choke on my coffee

[@mivapusa]

No, we guarantee it if we don't support Ukraine. Because after Ukraine it will be a NATO member.

[@sammiekay08]

Fascinating interview. I appreciate her expertise and knowledge on these topics. Thanks for all of your hard work putting this together!

[@Turf-yj9ei]

Ben Shapiro: Putin doesn't need to invade Ukraine to contain NATO. NATO is already on Russia's border. Also Ben Shapiro: We've got to stop Putin from taking Ukraine otherwise he'll be set up right on NATO's border Me: 🤨

[@BadOompaloompa79]

Your mistake was listening to anything Benny shaps says in the first place.

[@JL-XrtaMayoNoCheese]

Israeli

[@dillamadukes21]

He's changed his tune on international foreign policy and Ukraine after the October attacks in Israel. Before the attacks, he was overtly anti interventionist, hostile to American military aid, deeply critical of the government in Kyiv, and happy to regurgitate Kremlin favoured narratives to his audience. Then Israel got hit and suddenly it's deeply in America's interest to be engaged in matters of this sort. In the subsequent months of Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the congressional impasse on defence spending; the show's been particularly amusing listen now that he's had to walk back his position and explain to the MILLIONS of listeners who've been sold the isolationist lie why American engagement in foreign conflicts is important for there well being and the country.

[@destroyeris3k]

Thank you, Sarah Paine, this was a great interview!

[@BaldBearded101]

Great guest but your questions show your biases.

[@yeetman4953]

your too vague

[@keithrowell653]

When would Hitler have stopped asking for more if he had always been given what he wanted?

[@marcusmoonstein242]

No, we are not risking nuclear war by supporting Ukraine. Putin has already allowed Russia to endure two large-scale and humiliating defeats in this war already without deploying nuclear weapons. If he hasn't used them already he never will, so the best he can do is bluff about using them.

[@moiseshuerta3984]

Yeah. Ukraine definitely aint worth a nuclear holocaust. Ya obviously don't have kids. Radiation kills cats too.

[@SkywalkerPaul]

What defeats are those? Last time I checked Ukraine is running out of men in fighting age..

[@marcusmoonstein242]

@@SkywalkerPaul Russia is running low on men as well. But I'm referring to the humiliating withdrawal after failing to take Kiev and the massive territorial losses during the Ukrainian offensive the following summer.

[@SkywalkerPaul]

@@marcusmoonstein242 The Russians retreat from Kherson without a fight. That was a tactical retreat not a defeat technically speaking.

[@Victor-ov7hw]

Sorry, which defeats are those? I am following this conflict in a daily bases and I can't see those defeats in a map

[@cht2162]

She's brilliant!!!!

[@StormyJoeonthego]

get the clown with the Beard to shut up and listen . he might actually learn something from this genius grandma. i love her . boy is she calling it or what. incredible lady !

[@rosolenn]

This lady is why history is important.

[@asksomeoneelsefirst]

I definitely think that the gentleman asking the questions is 100% as far as trying to ask relevant questions I definitely think that this woman is definitely deeply in trench in a neon strategy. Justify United States wars, and to condemn wars by any other nation, other than Israel. I think it’s awful suspicious that she’s everywhere on the Internet, all the sudden when people are questioning the war in Ukraine and the legitimacy of it and questioning the harsh treatment that Israel is giving to Gaza. Not to mention why are we paying for Israel’s bombs?

[@kaf2303]

That is 1 Very knowledgeable Professor!

[@optimusprimevil1646]

too dismissive to be credible

[@robb7733]

She's fabulous. Very knowledgeable

[@traitretrudeau2367]

can you tell me a single way putin is doubling down? it'S the US doubling down with no back down plan lol, this woman would get destroye din an actual debate

[@robb7733]

@@traitretrudeau2367 It's hard to tell anything about this conflict due to the dishonest media. Do you remember how "sick and dying" Putin was?? Where the hell did that come from? Media lies.

[@pplr1]

"tell me a single way putin is doubling down?" Putin is doubling down by repeatedly sending in more troops after the initial invasion attempt stalled.

[@ZimbaZumba]

She is a Naval War College Historian, ie a propagandist. Much of what she says is good but some is clear propaganda.

[@michaelwilson-gz7hq]

This woman is very honest fair play

[@sebipatru]

Very nice for accepting Eastern European countries in NATO to protect them from Russia. But let's not forget who sold Eastern Europe to Stalin. Maybe if we could we should ask Churchill 😉

[@davedeville6540]

Who were supposed to do the fighting? The peoples of the UK and US were very tired of the war. And the rest of the free world was in ruins. The Korean war says a lot about how much fight the US had left in them. Now imagine a land war across Eurasia.

[@pongthrob]

Can we set Sarah up on a podcast date with Peter Zeihan? I really want to see them converse.

[@moiseshuerta3984]

Russias road systme is "lamentable"? This hack has obviously never been to Russia. Russia runs in rail. Cheap and efficient.

[@biggiouschinnus7489]

So what you're saying is that the roads are so bad that everyone goes by train? For the record, I've been to Russia myself - and she's 100% right. Russian roads are awful.

[@juanbetancourtg68]

She’s a hack.

[@dillamadukes21]

@@biggiouschinnus7489 Russia's rail system is nothing to write home about outside of elite municipalities either. Never been to Russia but I've lived all over the world and Russia's roads are more reminiscent of my years in rural south America, or the West Indies than anything I've seen in Europe. I'd imagine the bad weather (harsh winters and "mud season") and corrupt politics compound the matter. Instead of investing their vast oil and mineral wealth into infrastructure, they've chosen to invest in the destruction of generations of wealth.

[@biggiouschinnus7489]

@@dillamadukes21 Much of the money has been squirrelled away, to be brutally honest.

[@davedeville6540]

Last week the Russian rail minister publicly scolded his regional managers on national TV. I’d say that indicates some issues with the rail system

[@brendonculhane6549]

Nice to have some realpolitik. Well done!

[@The-Selfish-Meme]

OK - get these 2 on the front line for a week then have this discussion again. And anyway, which country would ever be crazy enough to drop nuclear weapons on civilians? Oh yeah, right... sorry.

[@johnthompson16]

So you have been on the front line? Which side?

[@moiseshuerta3984]

​@johnthompson16 I haven't been on the front. Nor want to be. Neither do this hack promoting war.

[@DNG12900]

I know that people think Chamberlain and his appeasement didn't work but Chamberlain actually started UK's rearmament allowing them to be prepared for WW2. Granted it didn't stop the war but he did prepare UK for it just to be safe and it paid off as UK wasn't invaded.

[@biohazard8295]

Using nuke doesn't mean necessarily using them all or on large scales. We could see an exchange of smaller nukes on military bases or energy infrastructures between the Us and Russia and then some negotiations. I think MAD is a thing of the past, although it is still technically possible.

[@patnolen8072]

I agree that "limited" nuclear wars are more likely than any all-out nuclear exchange.

[@darrencorrigan8505]

Thanks, Dwarkesh Patel.

[@alpardo4124]

Well l'm glad she understands that Putin never has, and never will "negotiate" , even if he may claim to want to.

[@tinytim71301]

She’s incredible. ❤💪🫡🇺🇸

[@rogerparis]

She’s so good!!

[@oneone9884]

Maybe the Democratic delegates or even the republican delegates want to consider this lady for the big office. I’d feel safer and more confident in our country with her at the wheel.

[@nelson6702]

He doesn't seem to want her answers to be the answer.