How Much Will China Risk for Taiwan? - Sarah Paine (Naval War College)

[@fdllicks]

I recently found this lady and i cant get enough of her. She should be advising our state department and giving lectures on tv.

[@chrishooge3442]

Me too. She's brilliant.

[@micronalpha]

Me too.

[@m.g.3013]

Same here. Popped up yesterday for me and I've been looking for her talks every since 😅

[@floridaman4073]

Brilliant woman.

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

Skewed analysis. 🤷

[@jerryfacts9749]

This lady Sarah Paine is brilliant. She is great to listen to. Her way of expression and thinking is right on the facts.

[@mikenicolas671]

U.S. President Jimmy Carter announced the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States kzbin.info/www/bejne/ppbKeJ2cpNyVmtk

[@Mcdonaldrod75]

Nationalism is just part of the unifying factor for Chinese people. Economic and security stability for which the central Government takes charge. That unifies people. China has had wars strife up the wazoo. They want peace and unity.

[@boxopener8588]

The question of how much will China risk for Taiwan depends on how much will the U.S. stand (risk) for Taiwan.

[@richdobbs6595]

The American state can't be trusted by allies. My guess is America will go with applying perpetual sanctions on China rather than defending Taiwan. They will defend Japan and South Korea. At this time, it looks like Philippines will go with America. But, just like Hong Kong, western powers aren't going to protect ethnically Chinese from ethnically Chinese. If Taiwan does well enough that the CCP loses control, they've got a chance. But otherwise Taiwan will become a devastated backwater. Semiconductor fabs don't survive invasions.

[@bzhu3233]

No way! It depends on the will and ability of the 1.4 billion Chinese people!

[@bzhu3233]

Even Xi and CCP can’t risk their power to against the will of the Chinese people to take Taiwan!

[@boxopener8588]

@@bzhu3233If that were the case, the U.S. should have been freaked out of the West Pacific many years ago.

[@jiayawhou4909]

Yes. That is why got QUAD and AUKUS

[@developingkindness3970]

I've been listening to talks on China, Russia, Taiwan, etc. for weeks. This is the most lucid analysis I've heard yet. Ready to find more!

[@Raptor302]

I think I learned more here in four minutes than I have in some lectures that have gone on for four hours on the same subject.

[@levelazn]

listening to white people talk about how much china wants taiwan will always have layers of reasons lost in translation

[@levelazn]

she gave the stupidest reason for china wanting taiwan.

[@michaele4830]

I used to believe such theory until I saw the Beijing's olympic. The genie is out and it wont be going back, in fact it cannot, the bottle is too small.

[@S0ulinth3machin3]

she is very good, very well reasoned and succinct.

[@Bunnyroo7]

@@levelazn Racist twaddle.

[@mikemaas5399]

Well she nailed Deng's impact. Sorry to have seen him go but I was in China in 2004 teaching and I got the distinct impression that many of my students, despite the "Mao is the greatest" that prevailed as the official construct they were aware of the benefits of Deng and the changes he had made. There were literally small stores/noodle stands in nearly every doorway. That was both the symptom and the cause of the increasing living standard. Many of my students were also victims of the tian 'anmen persecutions and openly expressed their happiness about having put that behind them. For context the school was an English language instruction school. I do speak Mandarin well enough to have spoken to them in Mandarin.

[@chieftanke]

I was in China around Beijing Olympic's time. That was an optimistic times, Deng has long passed but the fruits of his reforms is entering its zenith. Cross-straights relations is warming, Hong Kong & Macao's self rule was generally respected. There were faint hope that China might gradually transition into a Taiwan's style democracy, and Hong Kongers might soon be directly electing their Chief Executive as promised in Basic Law. Now, all gone down the drains.

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

Sarah is being biased on China. She avoided and omitted JZM era... were the U$ Bombing of Chinese embassy happened (followed a day or two by Philippine grounding a navy ship in a reef)... the EP-3 incident. And in HJT era... the sabotages on China's Olympic Torch tour and smear on Chinese sports (ie. alleged cheating and child abuse)... Staged "uprising" in Tibetan places that were violent (murders and maiming)... Obama's "Pivot to Asia" policy . And so on and so forth !

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

​@@chieftanke Funny twist and spin ! U$ covert Destabilization Ops against Ma administration (ie. "sunflower movement")... against HK gov't legislatures (ie. "umbrella movement"). "sunflower movement"

[@wuhaninstituteofvirology5226]

​@chieftanke Yes, I remember those times when most people thought the CCP would somehow become less inhumane, but, nowadays, it's over.

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

@@wuhaninstituteofvirology5226 Funny fake news and disinformation 🤡 On the first day of Beijing Olympics... Beijing's taxi company's 2-way radio got hijacked. Fox News' Megyn Kelly was falsely alleging child abuse by China on its athletes training. Months prior ...U$ masterminded "Tibetan uprising" that led to murders and maiming of Han-Chinese living in Tibetan places. U$ masterminded "sunflower movement" against KMT's Ma administration... also the "umbrella movement" in Hongkong .

[@jonasscheuer7639]

Very concise woman that seems to really know how to focus on what is important. I always love a scholar that is able to explain semantics without the tradeoff of inaccuracy because they want to sound smarter. She doesnt need to prove it.

[@johnchan4136]

Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China

[@MaJetiGizzle]

Best argument for justifying sanctions I’ve heard in a while.

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

Ain't gonna work . U$ and UK sanctioned Japan ...so Japan decided to attacked them !

[@jeffjohnson5053]

The most brillant people are Never allowed to work for government. The democrats only wants puppets and marketing folks, NOT talented folks. That is why they are attacking Trump constantly.

[@seymorefact4333]

The US doesn't really want CAPITALISM! BET, you don't even know where taiwan is on a map.

[@TellenJones]

So why did Lincoln take the confederate South back when the latter wanted outta the union? South had decided they would be just fine on their own but Lincoln went for war to stop it. Cannot have it both ways, lady Paine.

[@the1234567eights]

​@TellenJones So I guess there was nobody in the South that wanted out? Strawman argument.

[@ohwhatworld5851]

She is a great speaker and storyteller. She reminds me a lot of my history teacher. I failed almost every class, but I excelled in history, getting A's on my essays because she was such a great teacher.

[@billkingston4402]

Same as me, due to a bad home environment I couldn't concentrate at school, however the history teacher made history become alive

[@levelazn]

this lady is justifying u.s foreign policy on china by telling you that while the chinese government lifted 800 million people out of poverty, they are only doing it to stay in power, therefore there should be sanctions. and china should go back to being poor so the chinese people can have a reason to overthrow their government. This is some next level hubris and the level of delusional thinking in the western think tanks.

[@teddymoon3744]

she is so wrong....women. know nothing for conquering.

[@Bunnyroo7]

@@teddymoon3744 Blah, blah, blah. Eejit.

[@EvoraGT430]

@@teddymoon3744 Like Catherine the Great, you mean?

[@JulianNychay]

Just found her, she is brilliant and knows her stuff. We need more of people like her, actually educated and a leader.

[@benkonemann6062]

I wish I'd found out about Sarah Paine earlier, what an intelligent and pragmatic person!

[@drivex6761]

Hello Now u even found me

[@meanmachine99999]

There are some things worth more than making money like religion and pride to vast populations of people

[@levelazn]

no she isn't she is spewing all kinds of nonsense about why china wants to reunite with taiwan.

[@huntarama9375]

Yea Sarah talks a good game but most of it is BS , we are all products of our environment , if she lived in the real world she would have a bit more credibility

[@SillyPutty3700]

@@levelazn Done leave us hanging! Tell us why.

[@crizioclips]

Amazing, I appreciate finding people with academic backgrounds. I love all podcasts, but its very nice to hear from someone who is very informed and knowledgeable in topics like this.

[@kenfrank2730]

Thank you Dwarkesh for bringing this woman to my attention. She's brilliant.

[@barbarapaige4587]

I really enjoy listening to Dr. Paine - so knowledgable, and able to dissect issues and explain them so well. I would have loved to have her as my history professor.

[@dawnbrown5331]

Her well and command of the subject along with matter of fact nature is absolutely refreshing. I wish presidents and congress had to go to her talks

[@markg4459]

Impressive gal. I'm retired USAF, once had an opportunity to teach at the Naval War College. I was a JAG so it probably would have been teaching law, law of the sea, rules of engagement, etc. My boss scuttled it as he was convinced it wouldn't have helped my career as an AF officer. If the instructors are all as bright as this one, i think it would have been fun.

[@PepperElliott-pk4oe]

As a male of the species myself, I find It is sad an annoying that this commenter would use so disrespectful a term as "gal", however impressive.

[@veerbawa2982]

​@@PepperElliott-pk4oe yes "female of the species" is much better, good callout

[@jwbjpb1338]

This brilliant woman is who we need in our government.

[@floridaman4073]

Definitely would be an asset as a cabinet position.

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

She works for the Military . 🤦

[@jwbjpb1338]

@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 so what?

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

@@jwbjpb1338 Her analysis are skewed.

[@jwbjpb1338]

@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 no they are spot on right. She’s far far far far more educated and intelligent than you

[@tonywhite5485]

Where has she been… amazing

[@Infernal_Elf]

Amazing interview Good tough questions and Sarah C. M. Paine is fantastically knowledgably and she bring it out in a great way.

[@scottyboy60098]

Ms Paine is a gem of knowledge and interpretation of world events. Thank you for hosting her.

[@macaccount4315]

What an amazing teacher!

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

Unamazing teacher .🤷

[@johnchan4136]

​@@peekaboopeekaboo1165Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

@@johnchan4136 American patriot Gen. Smedley Butler revealed what American national policy is all about ... War is a racket ! Deep State has abandoned the KMT in behalf of it's new ally, the DPP .

[@bandicoot5412]

I'm looking forward to hearing more, thank you!

[@jasmorris1286]

She brilliant! I want more of her info

[@KenMcGraw-j3t]

I would like to listen to more of her lectures. She speaks with a sharp wit!

[@presspound7358]

Wow ! Now…this lady can deliver information. Wouldn’t mind hearing more from her.

[@kurtwinslow2670]

The key to sanctions is longevity. Will sanctions last long enough in order to have a significant impact? Or will things eventually return to the status quo?

[@howardcroft3748]

This woman is absolutely freeking brilliant.

[@wohetang]

I don't think she has the least clue about China and Taiwan, and Chinese thinking in large. Sigh!.

[@howardcroft3748]

@wohetang even your name screams CCP troll

[@accountantthe3394]

​@@howardcroft3748lel anyone you disagree with is a "ccp troll" 😂 Go find an echo chamber somewhere else kiddo

[@keyser021]

Its hilarious to hear the whitest of whitey white people talk about how China's "doing it wrong", which is why the U.S. has made the bet to isolate itself on the world stage by sanctioning 20% of global population, because they're failing so hard. To list the failures this women left out of her spiel: HSR across the entire nation, self construction space station, re-usable rockets, asteroid mining, #1 hydro electric power in the world, 30% re-usable energy sources, Xiong An smart city, Greater Bay Area 70M+ tech center, largest gold producer in the world, the #1 auto manufacturer in the world at the rock bottom price, 10yr head start on 5G deployment with fresh new 6G satellites already launched, independent Beidou GPS, hypersonic projectiles, #1 manufacturer to the globe of which the U.S. is a mere 4% with all of NATO making up 18% and China alone dwarfing all at 20%. This lady is comedy.

[@yaoliang1580]

Enjoy the bovine manure fed to you by your favourite fake news propagandist

[@ZackChannel]

I like how she explain things.

[@happygold5]

i think she speak very good but all wrong..LOL

[@timberwolfdtproductions3890]

I never tire of listening to this woman. She’s brilliant!

[@jerryfacts9749]

Sarah Paine is right on with what she is explaining. She has a terrific way of explaining the situation.

[@EdwardScott-c4h]

A pleasure to listen to. Clear, concise and knowledgeable. Why can't we have people like her in politics?

[@jensstergard9380]

Even in Scandinavia we don't have top politicians like her but we have some listening to people like her.

[@barbarapaige4587]

Why don't we have smart people like Sarah in politics? I think intelligent people would not subject themselves to the circus that is politics. The media, social media, the trying to please everyone, the snarkiness, the abuse, putting your family through all that... this is why we wind up with idiotic, self-absorbed numbskills dumb and ambitious enough to put up with it all. It is both sad and scary. I fear for democracy.

[@cheshirelizzy]

Thank you so much for these videos. They are so helpful!

[@DeeFibbs]

Very informed and precise

[@SteveConrad-l9j]

This lady is brilliant and able to communicate complex information in a simple manner.

[@Cyrusthegreat87]

my gosh i just enjoy listening to this woman.so articulate so well versed so knowledgeable

[@fellfromspace]

Brilliant and concise analysis. Whenever I listen to Dr. Paine I always get smarter.

[@barbellbookpress]

Would love to see more of Sarah Paine in the future. Watched true full interview, incredibly insightful.

[@richardcoughlin8931]

I’m impressed by Sarah Paine’s clear and concise analysis.

[@craigperry5662]

Clear, concise and reasoned. Where do I get to hear more of this women......she's great.

[@selewachm]

Wonderful listening to someone who talks sense. Thank you. I'm hooked on your videos.

[@nyckolaus]

Dr. Sarah Paine is magnificent!

[@marcob.7801]

Her talent is speaking with fact AND succinctly! I LOVE her. Can't get enough of this pragmatic geopolitical thinker!

[@发复古]

I think the title should be: How much will USA risk for Taiwan...

[@NoName-ml5yk]

You sound like a Putin bot. Regardless, unless you have a crystal ball on who will be President when they actually invade, and who controls the legislature, the question is impossible to answer.

[@cmm30]

How have I only now found this voice? She is so important. She is brilliant.

[@justinmoore4113]

Enjoy listening to this Lady. Great insights

[@benjaminluke8799]

1. There is a ton of trade between china taiwan right now 2. China doesnt want to take taiwan by force, they much prefer a diplomatic or economic solution 3. Sanctions make war with taiwan *more* likely because is lowers the cost of the war for china. If china is sanctioned to the degree that russia is for example they wouldnt have to worry about retaliatory sanctions since the sanctions are already in place.

[@Cryosxify]

aren't the ccp wumao always going on about how the US is a warmonger? 🤣 and this lady just explained the North Korea, South Korea example of generational deterioration/weakening of those put under sanctions. so if we do want to go to war we'd want you at a disadvantage so sanction away

[@YikaiRONG]

Sanctions are actually accelerating the process. China has very strong productivity, but due to economic difficulties, domestic demand has decreased, and due to sanctions, external demand has decreased. Then the war is the only way to divert people‘s attention and create new demand to deal with unemployment.

[@watchman835]

I don’t think the concerned about Taiwan. They using Taiwan as an excuse to sanction China, much like Ukraine Russia case.

[@JoshuaMiller-rw3sj]

My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone! She's a sex slave , no justice:( Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't. Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down. My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves. CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance. Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts. The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar. Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self. Remember they out number 10 to one. Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire. Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young. My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal. May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon. Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified. May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail. My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life. She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread. She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen. She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen. 236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller [e-mail] Jennifer luxmeows her old FB Email address [e-mail] Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️

[@v44n7]

also nuclear war more likely... If sanctions do indeed work and the war in taiwan rages on for years. The more weak the Chinese government will become and the more they will press the accelerator on the war. Just like Putin is doing and how Hitler & japan did in world war 2. You don't slow down, you accelerate. Every single resource and options will be used before trying to capitulate. And a nuclear option will be quite viable when you don't have nothing to loose already.

[@Zeek764]

Bravo! Very articulate and insightful. Brilliantly describing the famed Military Industrial Media Complex. Wait Naval College…

[@johntait491]

What a great thinker and eloquent speaker this lady is. I must listen to more of her commonsense thinking. 👍

[@Haffmatthew]

This woman is a national treasure! She so concisely shares her wealth of knowledge on the deepest nuanced level about historical topics. She should have a primetime history special on all platforms.

[@JohannesSebastian]

She is just wonderful and so clear!

[@motivationandtravelchannel4575]

This is a smart lady I enjoy listening to her!

[@eedobee]

The full video is worth a watch.

[@barreloffun10]

Where can we find thst?

[@eedobee]

@@barreloffun10 kzbin.info/www/bejne/j5S5hJqPr5qGgJosi=OOfssPBuqLhOAus7

[@JoshuaMiller-rw3sj]

My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone! She's a sex slave , no justice:( Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't. Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down. My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves. CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance. Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts. The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar. Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self. Remember they out number 10 to one. Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire. Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young. My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal. May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon. Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified. May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail. My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life. She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread. She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen. She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen. 236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller [e-mail] Jennifer luxmeows her old FB Email address [e-mail] Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️

[@johnsullivan8673]

Only if you want a laugh.

[@dracon501]

And why are such knowledgeable women not being placed in the forefront of our society? She clearly has such a deep understanding and is such an effective teacher. Im glad to have stumbled upon videos with her in them.

[@johnsullivan8673]

Her “insights” are neither deep nor even factual.

[@EgbertWilliams]

People this astute realize the cheap griminess of politics and want no part of it. And so the dishonest second- and third-raters thrive there.

[@JNPollard]

@@johnsullivan8673please enlighten us with a rebuttal video!!!

[@Kirin2022]

@@EgbertWilliams Or in the case of Trump and the Banana Republicans that he endorses for political office, the bottom of the barrel ... Not the bottom on the inside of the barrel, but the dirt and crud on the barrel's outside that's infested with fermenting pathogens.

[@richardabbot4695]

Sarah hit the nail on the head. She's right.

[@dougraber8291]

Sarah is spot on with her assessment of the issue

[@charlesqin1885]

Every government is concerned about its own survival. And most government often don’t act in its people’s interest, US included.

[@ronaldbell7429]

Nonsense. In democracies, the government cares quite a bit whether it's inclined that way or not, because the people are the ones that vote them in and out of office. The problem with democracies is the opposite. Politicians are incentivized to give the people whatever their hearts desire, even when it's not in their long term interests. This is what deficit spending is so hard to stop.

[@kaixiang5390]

The US government can only continue with the people’s support. The PRC doesn’t need the people’s support, it only requires the CCP

[@charlesqin1885]

@@ronaldbell7429 you just said politicians are incentivized to give what people want even if it’s not in their long term interest :) rest my case

[@ronaldbell7429]

@@charlesqin1885 What you're doing is called conflation. You originally meant one thing with "people's interest" but you'll happily use any other definition of "people's interest" so that you're always right. It's a very dishonest and unintelligent way to argue.

[@charlesqin1885]

@@ronaldbell7429 well, I am sorry to hear that you were able to conflate two apparent interpretations of what seems to be a clearly written piece of English.

[@yixu4648]

As Chinese lives in manland China, I could assrue you, most of us believe make Taiwan true part of China is something must be done. The tolerance would be extremely high when comes to the cost of taking Taiwan. At the same time, we are very confident our government will do a good job to make it happen, Chinese leaders are one of the most professional in the world, they know what they are doing. Taking Taiwan is not about dealing with tiny army on the island, it's about dealing with US and its pawns. Taiwan is like 100km from mainland China, there is no way US army could defeat China at this close. The only thing we should be worry about is so called US's 'low human rights advantages'. After covid, we find US elites did not that care about there people's life, that is scary to Chinese. That means we should consider the worst circumstances when dealing with US. China's unclear arsenals must be expanded quickly, so as to make sure US acts rationally when the final game begins.

[@AndyMitch-ec5iy]

Hello China bot, happy you can join us by using a VPN. If China can defeat America when it comes to Taiwan then why haven’t you already invaded ?

[@DJ_Force]

China would rather be sanctioned than give up on Tiawan. She said it herself, rule of the Communist party trumps economics. Also, she cited North Korea on how sanctions work. Kim Jong Un hasn't relinquished anything despite decades of sanctions.

[@genericscout5408]

China might do it, but it might not. That's the power of sanctions.

[@jamiel6405]

I believe it is so because Xi needs to save face for himself. Mao stated that Taiwan is not part of China, and should be independent. The KMT who fled from China just simply brought along ROC. Before that it was imperial Japan, and before that was a short lived republic of Formosa.

[@fazole]

​@@jamiel6405 Taiwan presents a continuous strategic threat to the PRC. The US govt. takes the threat seriously, because they have brought the strategic chip manufacture, Taiwan Semi Conductor to Arizona.

[@garylee9668]

@@jamiel6405 you are really a joke.

[@paulzhang1310]

@@jamiel6405 Taiwan is a province of China, says UN spokesperson kzbin.info/www/bejne/fpeyfGiJYqeUos0

[@jamesbrewhelm3981]

If Sarah Paine ran for president I would vote for her.

[@flank84]

One of, if not the best historians to ever break shit down. Dan Carlin and Sarah Paine making a podcast series together could be epic. Edit: I also need to clearly thank Dwarkesh for finding these really interesting people and sharing their knowledge, perspective, and insight with us. Im subbing to the pod on spotify, thank you Dwarkesh.

[@productamadeus8745]

I love this scholar.

[@nicolaasfourie]

Wow! I'm impressed by her knowledge and insights.

[@swcblad]

then why america was in iraq afghanistan etc?

[@JL-XrtaMayoNoCheese]

Israel

[@williamwongkimping3998]

WarMonger AMURDERCA, the KAREN 🤣🤣🤣 the whole world knew 🤣🤣🤣

[@Michael-j4h]

It took American 20 years to replace the taliban with the taliban 😮

[@donaldmackerer9032]

Who knows. I didn't vote for W.Bush. He should have been better informed about the chemical weapons. However, that sweet lovable dictator that dictatorships admire so much did not honor original peace agreement from the first gulf War. As far as Afghanistan goes, we should have left right after we killed bin Laden. But George W. Bush was into nation building in a tribal area with no sense of nationality. Nations like people will make mistakes and mistakes of judgment. America is not perfect we made a mistake. But we can admit making mistakes.

[@dpeasehead]

@@Michael-j4h Thanks for posting one of the shortest, smartest, funniest, and most accurate analysis of the end results of the US "war on terror."

[@thegovernor1146]

Very interesting to listen to someone with her expertise.

[@GrooveTasticThang]

Sarah Paine and Fiona Hill, 2 great intellects and communicators. Bridging historical knowledge with future projection.

[@TheGUULA]

I really enjoy listening to this woman lecture. Her articulation is on point ! Keep up the great work!

[@vmissos]

If there is no need to take Taiwan, then why is the White House so concerned with it?

[@donaldgraham6414]

Be abuse the CCP doesn’t understand that there is no need.

[@donaldmackerer9032]

For one thing it is semi conductors and chips. Then there is the principles thing that Taiwan has a right to choose their own government. Next is the freedom of seas issue of keeping them open for trade. And promises we made to them.

[@renewatterson505]

The question should be how much will US risk for Taiwan, considering the waning support for Ukraine

[@incassable]

US do not need Ukraine, they need Taiwan (for the moment)

[@meonline140]

A great summary.

[@stan4d1969]

Great analysis!

[@gordonjameskerr]

She is good, and her style as a communicator is entertaining. Like many Western thinkers, her grasp of the shifting power blocks is, however, limited. Russia has India and China to help it through sanctions and China is a global enterprise so North Korea is not a good example.

[@baneofbanes]

India is not an ally of either Russia or China. They’re more than happy to play off the great powers against each other but they’re going to tie themselves to one or the other.

[@XandateOfHeaven]

The notion of a power block which includes both China and India in any meaningful capacity is a Russian power fantasy. While the Indians are certainly more ambivalent towards Putin than the West, they are absolutely not neutral when it comes to China. Especially given they have overlapping territorial claims, and Chinese aid to Pakistan. Trying to ally with China and India simultaneously is Russia's mistake with Armenia and Azerbaijan on a much larger scale. You can't be allies with mortal enemies, you will inevitably have to alienate one. But more importantly, the Indians see the Americans as a more credible ally against the Chinese.

[@dondouglass6415]

Absolutely fascinating... Huzzah!! 😊

[@thomasrogers9146]

AS AN AMERICAN BUSINESS MAN WHO HAVE BEEN TO CHINA A COPLE OF TIMES. THE FIRST LAW OF COMPETETION IS KNOW YOUR COMPETETOR. 90% OF MY FELLOW AMERICANS HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT CHINA. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR US AS A NATION TO EVEN COMPETE IN A CHANGING WORLD IF WE HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF OUR COMPETETORS

[@litesp]

I work with Chinese manufacturers. They plan 5, 10, 20 years ahead, not just for an election cycle. They make decisions for purpose, not just for profit. They started shifting gears from low cost, low quality goods to high technology, high quality products. Most Americans and Europeans don't even try to understand this.

[@juve5930]

Best said than anyone, even dr. paine. China is no North Korea. North Korea never owned chunks of our national debt. Sanction is to try to change the rule of the competition. It take the wills and power that US hardly possesses.

[@grayson5292]

Ah yes I agree fellow American businessman, your grammar, spelling, and writing in all caps have all convinced me you’re not a CCP bot

[@Neddy-p3w]

Why you shouting? Why you no talkee eengleesh??

[@twcintrepid]

I can't see it happening. If China tried to take Taiwan by force and this brought it into armed conflicted with Western countries. I think the outcome could be revolution in China. China relies on trade to power the country and most importantly feed its very large population. Armed conflict would see the Chinese fishing fleet either being captured or sunk, cut off from grain and meat imports. How long before the Chinese population begin to starve? Unable to import coal or oil, Chinese people would freeze in the brutal winter without energy for heating. Cold and hungry people could bring regime change. Given this Taiwan seems like a poor prize for a lot of pain.

[@tomevans4402]

Looking this lady up!!!

[@Skiskiski]

If you combined Mein Kampf with the German history, you could accureately predict what was going to happen in the 1930's and 1940's. 'My Poles,' the Poles, did read Mein Kampf and knew the German history relevant to the ethnic Poles and decided in 1939 to go down fighting because they were realists. No! Polish resistence in 1939 was not about the fate of the Jews, but about the fate of the Poles.

[@surelywoo]

The media is so anxious for me to hear female voices that I generally shut them off, but Sarah Paine is different. She gives intelligent analysis.

[@phamvuanh]

Sarah is amazing. Rockstar

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

She's manipulative. 🤷

[@KenMcGraw-j3t]

I lived in Taipei last year and worked in a downtown school as an American ESL teacher. At school we did earthquake drills but did not prepare for the artillery barrage Paine describes. When I asked about this possibility my Taiwanese co-workers at school were embarrassed by the question and treated it as absurd.

[@WayneLuo-wd4ek]

John Joseph Mearsheimer said he has never met a Chinese who did not consider Taiwan a sacred part of China! He believes China may be willing to bear unbelievable price to take back Taiwan if provoked to. US can not win the war because the logistics and the distance of US to Taiwan, and the US can not afford to lose Taiwan because US will be kicked out the west Pacific! The Best US can to is to avoid such a showdown. Well, Chinese knows this as well.

[@xsu-is7vq]

Well, US is actively pushing toward a situation where China will have to take Taiwan. No doubt prodded by people who think like this lady, believing China only wants Taiwan for the power and control of communist party.

[@chaomingli6428]

Her analysis is good on the surface but she overlooks one thing: the nationalism and populism is a global trend that is pushed by society, and the politicians amplify it to get a ride. This card works because the people desires it.

[@only_fair23]

This is the kind of cope like "Germans actually hated Hitler", it's bs. Propaganda does incredible things to people's minds

[@stwadoo]

I've lived in China for many years and I consider one of the biggest advantages of their system is that those with significant economic power are not able to translate that into political power and influence in the way that western capitalist do. It means that in China their is a much greater chance of the country being governed in the interests of the people as a whole, rather than in the interests of the rich and powerful which is ironically what you get in the US and most other western countries.

[@carlocaiani3742]

Sarah Payne is a brilliant political analyst , she is on the money every time , clear ...

[@jimtrimblett8333]

She's great!!! I didn't think about the effectiveness of the sanctions working so well, until she used the example of North and South Korea.

[@impostorsyndrome1350]

No, sanctions don't work because it's easy to bypass them. Look at Russia and how a lot of enterprises still trade with Russia

[@dpelpal]

Look at a graph of Russia's GDP over the last 8 years. It's almost as big a joke as the russian army😂

[@elmohead]

Russia is poised to overtake Germany and Japan to become no. 4 economy of the world this year. They didn't do anything special, just that Germany and Japan tanking atm.

[@JL-XrtaMayoNoCheese]

​@@elmoheadus is tanking the German and Japanese economy

[@JoshuaMiller-rw3sj]

Honourable delegates of the Separatist council ,leader philosopher Count Dooku , speaks on behalf on Chinese consulate and lack of jobs and industrialization in United States of America, make America great again! Freedom in Iran ( geonosis ) ! And the Gaza strip , free Palestine ! Meme worthy ;) My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone! She's a sex slave , no justice:( Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't. Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down. My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves. CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance. Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts. The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar. Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self. Remember they out number 10 to one. Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire. Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young. My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal. May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon. Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified. May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail. My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life. She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread. She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen. She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen. 236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller [e-mail] Jennifer luxmeows her old FB Email address [e-mail] Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️

[@Bunnyroo7]

Bull

[@g1y3]

Her argument about sovereignty is a bad one ; all countries accept one china policy & we saw what happened when in karabkh everyone was in agreement that it was Azerbaijani territory & no-one intervened

[@jensstergard9380]

Just as Beijing never has ruled Taipei, Taipei has never ruled Beijing. In the Taiwan case we are talking about a sane democracy that wants de facto independence.

[@xsu-is7vq]

@@jensstergard9380that’s a BS argument. Any new challenger to power in a civil war could be said to have “never ruled”. But that doesn’t make the territory not controlled by that party an independent country.

[@ThomasVWorm]

​@@xsu-is7vqTaiwan practically is an independent country today. The only thing missing is the official status of independence. The Taiwan issue could be simply solved by China accepting what Taiwan is today.

[@xsu-is7vq]

@@ThomasVWorm Or, crazy idea, other countries should butt out and let Chinese people resolve it on their own.

[@ThomasVWorm]

@@xsu-is7vq ok, let the Taiwanese have a public vote about it, since where they want belong to, is just their own business.

[@dlsamson]

Consider this additional factor. For many years, the PRC had a one child policy. As the culture favored boys over girls, China has 5% more men than women, whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men. The 18-23 year old demographic in China is ~103 million. Between 20-40 is ~ 350 million. That works out to at least 10 million young men who will never find a wife. That's a lot of testosterone that needs to be corralled & nationalism is always a good way of doing such. Compound that demographic with a rhetoric of the historical victimization of China in the latter part of the Qing dynasty & you have a lot of energy which could be deflected by some international "muscle flexing."

[@minyaw1234]

Even though we don't have this exact situation in the West, we do have young men not finding a wife to have children with. But this does not result in a fighting force that would die for the country because they have nothing else to do. Quite the contrary, young lonely men think of their own country as being at at fault for that not an outside force. A married man with children plants roots in the country he is living in and wants it to do well - he is far more likely to want to fight for it. Unmarried men without children aren't idiots. Why would they get maimed or if they are lucky, die, for a country that hasn't offered them the basic needs of a human being? For men that is mostly a wife and children. Who would he be fighting for? Some old dude in the CCP? Honestly I believe it is far more likely, that like in the Arab spring, men would rather go and rebel against their own country's leadership than go die for them, especially when they have nothing to lose. Maybe it works for very young people, 18-24 because they still think they can do it. But any man over 28 that does not have a partner and children, the last thing he would do is die for his country that seems to have given him nothing to die for.

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

Funny twist and spin ! PRC Chinese men can find a wife in overseas Chinese community. Also in countries without an ethnic Chinese community. Chinese people were humiliated up to the 1940s ... with the Japanese phased invasions ! Even today... Japan refuses to admit it's Crimes Against Humanity ! Also refuses to return looted properties !

[@peekaboopeekaboo1165]

​@@minyaw1234 CPC continue to have majority support from the people . Ordinary Chinese knows why many of them became jobless ... due to Trump's unjust tariffs, sanctions and embargoes !... That's continued by Biden !

[@MelindaSordinoIsLiterallyMe]

@@minyaw1234 It's not a state job to find young men a wife. The GDR actually did this, but no one could imagine a state-run arrangement agency nowadays.

[@MelindaSordinoIsLiterallyMe]

"whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men" - I don't think thats true. If you look at the population pyramids of most Western countries, there is a male surplus until around age 60. And while the surplus isn't large, it tends to be largest in the 20 to mid-30s age range. Even in countries such as Russia, where you tend to presume there is a large female surplus because of alcoholism and what not, there is a male surplus until the late 20s. I actually can't think of ANY country where there is a female surplus in that age range.

[@tedrintel3269]

Sarah Paine is brilliant

[@bobcat6751]

Simple counter argument is that China doesn't want to be the employee of the US. However much benefit has China gained working within the system that is created by the US that benefit the US the most, China can do better working in a system not created and controlled by the US. A person who quite their job and started and successful business would surly get what I am saying!

[@orange25i]

Why do you hate China so much? The last time, they did their own thing was from the 1950s-70s. That was so bad for the whole of China. Afterwards China got rich producing stuff to sell to the rest of the world. Why stop something that has brought so much money to China? YOU have NO idea about business obviously. ...

[@pugilist102]

Before China joined the US led order, they were trying to make steel in backyard furnaces. Look at China before Deng's reforms. That is where China is heading.

[@havocrein]

It's not sanction, it's just economic warfare and bullying, but what if China is more powerful, who will be sanctioning whom then? Chinas trade only amount about 15% of it's GDP, far less than UKs 40% for ex. while it's the *largest* trading partner of over 120 nations around the world, west isn't getting more powerful, it peaked around 1990s and it's on a continued journey downwards since. Taiwan is considered a sovereign territory of China legally, one can only imagine how much China is willing to pay for it, the entire military modernization of China since 1996 is centered around taking back Taiwan, I seriously doubt west understand the Chinese determination on the subject.

[@cungcung5042]

US would win if they started sanctioning & engaging trade war against China 25 years ago. But today, the table has turned. Today's China is much more powerful economically & advanced in infrastructure & supply chains. And they have considerable soft power.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

China appears to be waiting for the USA to go broke paying Contractors to construct military facilities in Pacific Rim Locations. In 1967 that Cost defeated LBJ's plan to develop a War on poverty. The US was short on cash. So the Nixon Administration created a new Currency. Now the US Empire appears to have exceeded it's limitations?

[@andyusfca]

China trade to gdp ratio for 2022 was 38.14%,....get your facts straight....

[@benashbaugh5982]

Netflex has a good serie called "How to become a tyrant". All of them have the same theme that is how to maintain control and the best way to "unite" the people is to find an "external cause". Xi and Putin are doing exactly what the Netflex serie has shown.

[@dpeasehead]

@banashbaugh5982: The west has long used white supremacy to create its own false unity against racial minorities and non white powers oceans away from its white heartlands...

[@organizer14]

Prof Jeffrey Sachs and Ambassador Chas Freeman are the two Americans who understand China. Why is US not focus on the problems of most Americans living in America?

[@organizer14]

Why is it that US cannot understand the need for buffer - how would US like China do things in Mexico or Cuba? From military viewpoint just as US will not allow Russia or China next to US border. Why is it so hard for US to understand the need for buffer zone?

[@brianwarren2042]

Oh no, they don't want corporations to influence the political process... the horror. 🙄

[@2011Matz]

The problem is Western cowardice in not recognising Taiwan as a seperate independent nation.

[@theactuary2358]

Typical western mentality

[@yossarianmnichols9641]

Very helpful summary of the issue

[@SpiderPriestess]

Love this lady !

[@theodorejay1046]

China would be just fine by leaving Taiwan alone 🙄 Why invite trouble ?

[@only_fair23]

Taiwan only existed to contain as part of the first island chain. That and history

[@johnsullivan8673]

Because the US won’t allow the status quo circa 2012-2015 to continue.

[@Bk6346]

China did leave Taiwan alone for many years as both sides benefited from trade and investment but now Taiwan is threatening to declare independence which is unacceptable for the Chinese.

[@jamiel6405]

They should. Like Sarah said, trade with each other and make money. But this is about power. Xi needs to save his face for the party.

[@liedison4340]

Simple. Catalunya wants to be independent from Spain. Why can’t Spain just leave it alone and let it be independent?Simple! If Catalunya can be independent, why not Valencia? Why not Sevilla?😂😂You just apply the same logic thinking to China and the answer to the question why China couldn’t just let Taiwan alone is self-evident…😅

[@louislussier6133]

Nationalism does not need the Communist Party to express itself. A democratic China would not be indifferent to the status of Taiwan. The United States, democratic as they may be, have nevertheless invaded many territories and countries, and they have, I remind you, conquered vast Mexican provinces, Pacific islands, Puerto Rico, etc.

[@chunliangzhang2506]

If a truly democratic China is a reality, then who would worry about Taiwan is part of China? Maybe Taiwanese people would vote to join the republic peacefully and no one would be against it. The core of conflict is that Taiwan is a member of this international family of trading and living community whose members are mainly following the same value system and way of doing business. China was admitted into this "big" family in early 2000s (joining WTO) and has grown big and more powerful. But the expectation of Chinese peacefully transitions into a society with the same value system and way of doing business has miserably failed. Then you have this powerful guy living in the same Neiborhood as yours but with different mindset of things who conflicts with you on daily basis, especially some minor "weakling" like Taiwan being "bullied" by him all the time. Then what kind of option would the community have to choose? Naturally to expel the not-fall-in-line guy out of the community is the choice - so "de-bundling" between the "western" world and China is undergoing. Have you ever had any deep conversation with a Chinese nationalist in your life? I have plenty and let me tell you, in their minds they despise the western way of living (mainly the culture and political ideology of freedom) and plan to destroy your world once capable. So many Chinese still believe the democracy even in ideal state is the "primitive" society for barbarians, and authoritarian/dictatorship is the evolution end of human civilization. They admire the strongmen like Chairman Mao, Stalin, even Hilter. They can be kind and caring persons in daily life but support an oppressive regime without hesitation. A tourist trip in China won't help you understand the people living there at all. The minority of Chinese with the same value system as the West are oppressed and hidden to protect themselves.

[@dpeasehead]

@@chunliangzhang2506 When I was a kid jim crow was the law of the land in democratic America and America and the rest of the western democracies had no problem with that or with supporting odious white regimes in Africa and elsewhere. The alleged values of the west have always been found wanting when they get in the way of what the white people who run the west want to do.